Criticism/Self-Criticism Session

Everyone should take responsibility for their pre-election predictions, so here's my mea culpas:

It's going to be close…

OK, I got that right, but I wasn't exactly going out on a limb there.

…but I think Kerry is going to take it. Which surprises me, since I've been predicting a Bush victory all year.

Should've stuck with your first thought, Walker.

Nader won't top 1%

Got that right.

Badnarik will not get more than 300,000 votes.

Looks like he's just under 400,000. My usually reliable rule of thumb for predicting Libertarian vote totals -- find the lowest figure being publicly predicted within the party, then go lower -- has failed me.

I can console myself by reflecting on all the other predictions that went awry. It wasn't a dead heat. It wasn't a landslide either. Young people didn't turn out in droves. Ohio did not become another Florida. Florida did not become another Florida. There was no electoral/popular split. And Badnarik didn't get to play spoiler.