Will World Get a Shock…

From the election tomorrow? According to the very unscientific, yet interesting, Betavote.com site which asks, "What if the whole world could vote in this election?"--it's Kerry by a landslide. At the moment Bush is ahead only in Niger and Pitcairn Island.

On the other hand, the election markets, Tradesports.com and the Iowa Electronic Markets, are predicting a Bush victory.

Thanks to Pamela Friedman for the tip.

Comments

[Jason Bourne]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Narrow EC vote in favor of Kerry.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Neither has sewed up enough EVs to win according to Rasmussen.

http://www.pollingreport2.com/#bars

National polls largely show a statistical tie between Kerry and Bush.

[clarityiniowa]

http://www.weeklyreader.com/election_vote.asp

My Weekly Reader also polls for Bush, and, according to CSPAN, MWR has never been wrong.

Hold me, I'm scared.

[Pavel]

You forgot Poland.

[Heurisko]

Oh, great, the World! They must know something we, The United States, don't know seeing as how they garner about 50% of the worldwide GNP. That must atest somewhat to their ability to do stuff and to do it right. I mean, heck, they have half of the world's GNP and the U.S. the other half... We have what? about 5% of the world's population and about 50% of total, world-wide GNP...

So, what exactly, and why would we want to know what they think about who should run The United States? They can't get more than 50% of the worldwide GNP but, we at 5% of the worldwide population get that much, if not more, and this article gives a second thought to care about what they think?

We must be doing something right which they are not. Who cares what they think about this matter.

[Andy D]

Comparing tradesports.com to electoral-vote.com is interesting... they disagree on IA, FL, OH, and HI... and electoral-vote.com can't make up its mind about NM and NH.

And though the closeness of the race has caused the poll-watchers' results to swing wildly about, Tradesports has very consistent.

I'm going with my faith on the free market here, I'm thinking Tradesports is more reliable... Bush with 286.

[Eric the .5b]

Throw me in with the folks who don't mind letting the world vote - if they agree to statehood.

[a]

Heurisko:

"about 5% of the world's population and about 50% of total, world-wide GNP"

Wrong. The US has about 25% of the world's GNP and its share is declining. Japan has about 15% of the World's GNP. Japan's GNP per capita is higher than the US.

[Steve]

a-

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp_cap

U.S. per capita GDP exceeds Japan.

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gdp

Japan's total GDP is nowhere near 3/5 of the U.S. However, you are correct that U.S. GDP is nowhere near half of the world total.

[Jason Bourne]

World GDP has been expected to triple by 2010 as I recall, and most of that GDP growth ain't coming from the U.S.

See the following web page for rankings as of 2003:

http://www.wallstreetview.com/GDPRankings.html

[SR]

Interestingly, Tradesports.com shows Bush up slightly for an overall win (.9%), but down noticeably for wins in Florida (-3.5%), Minnesota (-2.9%) and Ohio (-8.8%). The Ohio number is particularly interesting as everyone is undoubtedly well aware that a Republican has never won the presidency without winning the state.

[Jason Bourne]

SR,

So the internals don't bode well for Bush, even though the overall predict does?

[a]

Steve:

"U.S. per capita GDP exceeds Japan."

I said GNP not GDP (the original poster brought up the GNP not GDP). From your source:

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_gro_nat_inc_cap

I'm not well versed in economics, but the original post was absurdly wrong and I just wanted to point this out.

"Japan's total GDP is nowhere near 3/5 of the U.S."

Why 3/5? Acording to the CIA Factbook, Japan's population is 127 million, the US population is 293 million. Did you mean 2/5?

[Syd]

Kerry 50.5-48.5 with .7 for Nader and .3 for other candidates.

Kerry sweeps the east down to the Potomac, the midwest except for Indiana and Kentucky), the west coast and Hawaii, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada. and gets around 295 electoral votes. If I'm right, no serious challenges since the Republicans would have to challenge too many states.

[Steve]

a-

Fair point about GNP/GDP . The reason I said 3/5 was that you said Japan was about 15% of world, GNP, and the US was 25%, hence, Japan would be about 3/5 of the US, which isn't really so (it's less than half, for precisely the reason you stated--much lower population). And your main point, that the US doesn't have close to 50%, is still very true.

[Jason Bourne]

Syd,

I think we can all agree that no matter who wins, a sizeable (meaning 30 or more EVs) EV victory is desirable to keep any challenges at bay (of course, that may not even be a guarantee).

Also, if Bush loses, how likely is a coup d'etat? 🙂

[Jason Bourne]

Syd,

When the hell did Kentucky become part of the midwest?

[grylliade]

From the election tomorrow? According to the very unscientific, yet interesting, Betavote.com site which asks, "What if the whole world could vote in this election?"--it's Kerry by a landslide.

Yes, but according to their polls, Kerry will win the US election by 51 % - Bush 24 %, Kerry 75 %. I know you said that it's very unscientific, but that's just crazy talk. 🙂

[SR]

Jason: "So the internals don't bode well for Bush, even though the overall predict does?"

Right, and that trend is continuing: Bush is now +1.9% for victory, -3.4/-2.8/-8.6 for wins in Florida/Minnesota/Ohio. I would be fascinated to learn what the logic is in the buyers/sellers minds, given that if Bush loses all three of those states (57 EV total), there's really no plausible way he could win at that point even if he were somehow to get all of Pennsylvania, Iowa, Hawaii, NH, NM, and Wisconsin (51 EV total).

[leviramsey]

Time to think of scalping/arbitraging some profits... 🙂

[db]

JB:

Syd,

When the hell did Kentucky become part of the midwest?

On a business trip to the South I once mentioned in conversation a friend of mine who lived in Kentucky.

The response?

"Kentucky? That ain't the South. That's the ass-end of the Midwest."

Not my words...all apologies to Kentuckians.

[jon]

You forgot the Cook Islands. I forgot where they are, assuming I ever really knew. Maybe it's a conspiracy among cartographers?