Don't Forget Pollin'


An oft-repeated criticism of electoral polls this year has been that they undercount younger voters, expected to turn out in unusually high numbers this time, who primarily use cell phones. (I've no idea whether my friends are representative, but almost none who're roughly my age bother keeping a land line.) So it's interesting to see that Zogby has conducted a text message poll of mobile phone users. Kerry shows a 14 point lead among 18–29 year olds, and the still more surprising number is that less than three percent say they either won't vote or aren't sure they will. (Though I expect that's probably an artifact of both self-selection bias—no numbers on response rates in the press release—and the well known tendency of survey respondents to report far higher voting rates than actually occur.)

On the other hand, this PoliPundit summary of the findings of a recent NY Times poll make things look pretty rosy for Bush indeed.