Rational Irrationality
Over at the always-interesting Marginal Revolution blog, George Mason University economics professor (and a pal of mine from ye olden days) Bryan Caplan has been guest-blogging some interesting stuff. My favorites have been some observations on why libertarians should cheer that Paul Krugman is the most prominent lefty voice in economics, and some reflections on the inherent irrationalities in public opinion on issues such as inequality, spending, regulation, and welfare, concluding that "The big lesson is that public opinion is not just wrong, but downright silly."
Caplan as an economist has also done some theorizing on why that is so, positing the existence of rational irrationality. An excerpt from the abstract of his 1999 paper on the topic:
According to the theory of rational irrationality, being irrational - in the sense of deviating from rational expectations - is a good like any other; the lower the private cost, the more agents buy. A peculiar feature of beliefs about politics, religion, etc. is that the private repercussions of error are virtually nonexistent, setting the private cost of irrationality at zero; it is therefore in these areas that irrational views are most apparent.
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Jennifer, will you translate this for me so I can translate it for thoreau?
I think we've struck the Mother Lode here, but I can't explain why.
"A peculiar feature of beliefs about politics, religion, etc. is that the private repercussions of error are virtually nonexistent"
Unless you assume that atheism is correct (which I do, BTW) I don't see how the private reprecussions of an error in religion would be nonexistent.
Xavier,
Okay - I'll ask the dumb question: what are these obvious private repercussions of an error in religion?
-Tim
Tim,
Well, eternal damnation seems like an error. Though if you mean the repercussions on the planet Earth, well then zero.
Then again, religion was never about the repercussions on Earth (well at least not during this life).
I would say there are potentially exhorbitant costs for joining a church... Jim Jones' church for instance.
Paul Krugman isn't a libertarian? The one who writes for the NYT? Really?
I think the point is that some people delude themselves into religious beliefs because it makes them feel better, and the costs of believing are close to zero. The paper seems to assume there is no rational basis for belief in god. I had a friend once who told me "I believe in god because, if there is a god - I'll go to heaven, but if I'm wrong, I lose nothing."
Whats more, (this is my opinion) once you believe in a particular religion, there would be no motivation to change, in fact the existence of other religious beliefs would threaten your only practical benefit - feeling better.
There's a cost to an error in religion either way... Obeying a non-existent diety costs you some non-zero amount of time, money and pleasure here in this world. So you die, your body turns to dust and your consciousness blinks out of existence, and all that time, money and foregone pleasure was an investment with no return.
Of course, following the wrong religious rules is just about the worst case scenario: you sacrifice all this time, money, and pleasure and you still end up boiling in perpetuam.
A "public opinion poll" is an abstraction, a chance for the respondent to envision his perfect world.
Back to reality, Tip O'Neill was a blathering highbinder, but precisely correct with his "all politics is local" maxim. This neatly explains the gap between "public opinion" and voting behavior.
"The big lesson is that public opinion is not just wrong, but downright silly."
here here. someday, when all the grand blather and ideology about Democracy and Freedom have died down, folks will come to realize that giving absolutely everyone a say in running their central government is precisely the same as giving authoritarian control to the residents of the monkey cage.
C, you may be right, but the paper addresses only the costs of holding the belief, not of practicing a religion. Besides, many people get pleasure out of attending church (hard for me to believe, but I have relatives that look forward to it) There is comradery, singing, dancing, etc. I might argue there are enough appeals to cancel out the costs in the aggregate.
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