The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Kerry getting a very slight apres-convention bounce among registered voters: He pulls a 50 percent to 44 percent win. Prior to the con, he was on the down side of a 48 percent to 46 percent split. Among likely voters, Kerry beats Bush by two points. More analysis here.
Interestingly, Kerry has gained in almost all sub-categories. For instance, before the convention, the Post poll had voters trusting Bush, by a 47 percent to 46 percent edge, to handle the economy. That's now a 52 percent to 41 percent split in favor of Kerry.
These numbers will almost surely flip around come the Republican National Convention. But they also suggest that the five presidential debates, to be held in late September through October, will be particularly important in swinging the election (that there are five of them suggests that they will be incredibly tedious and largely unwatched). And that Kerry supporters, who have actively worked to portray George W. Bush as a few IQ points short of stupid and their own man as nothing less than a protean genius, may see that strategy back fire. After all, it lowers the bar tremendously for Bush, even as a sitting president.
Update: As reader Kari Bruffet helpfully pointed out to me via email, there are only three presidential debates scheduled. That may be three too many, but it's thankfully two less than I suggested above. More information here.