Benchmarking the Convention Bounce

Here's a link to USA Today/CNN/Gallup Polls on the eve of the Democratic National Convention. The latest numbers, based on surveys conducted with likely voters and others over July 19-21, have Kerry/Edwards over Bush/Cheney by 2 percentage points, 49 percent to 47 percent. Forty-three percent of likely voters are "certain" they'll go for Kerry and 40 percent are sure to go for Bush.

Whole shebang here.