Threats Work, Check Out Syria
Syrian Ammar Abdulhamid has just inaugurated (in Syria) a project known as Al-Tharwa, which he describes as ?an activity that seeks to shed some light on the living conditions of religious and ethnic minority groups in the Middle East in an attempt to foster more open dialogue between minority and majority groups over the real aspirations and concerns of minority groups.?
For those who know Syria, and who know in particular that minority issues were considered taboo in a country led by a relatively small circle from the minority Alawite community, this is nothing short of astonishing. Yes, there is change in Syria, albeit modest change that is not designed to lead to a fundamental transformation in the regime.
But can the regime resist? If there is one country where outside pressure, particularly from the U.S. in Iraq, has been shown to work, it?s in Syria. In recent months the Syrian regime has shown considerable flexibility against its domestic critics (opposition figures have even been named to a commission to reform the Baath Party); the regime did not crush the Kurdish uprising of two weeks ago with the same violence that would have been expected only a decade ago; it has agreed (after much resistance earlier) to move forward on a partnership agreement with the European Union (which has provisions for political reform); and it has abolished emergency Economic Courts (which, as the New York Times recently noted, were used by the regime to stifle opposition businessmen).
Syria has also allowed more leeway for the Lebanese to demand publicly that the Syrians pull their forces out of Lebanon, though that process in truth began after the death of Hafiz al-Assad in June 2000. As an example of what can be said (and the Syrians generally say what?s on their mind in the Lebanese press), here?s a piece by Abdulhamid in last Saturday's Daily Star.
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France and Germany actually negotiated this type of very slow, yet steady democratic reform in Syria years ago. Thing is, there was an understanding that it wouldn't kick off until the US reached it's current depths of imperialistic hubris. There is a similar understanding with Iran and any other place you see any reform in the middle east, with each working on a timetable only to be revealed after it begins.
jb,
You are ubiquitous.
France and Germany actually negotiated this type of very slow, yet steady democratic reform in Syria years ago. Thing is, there was an understanding that it wouldn't kick off until the US reached it's current depths of imperialistic hubris. There is a similar understanding with Iran and any other place you see any reform in the middle east, with each working on a timetable only to be revealed after it begins.
France and Germany actually negotiated this type of very slow, yet steady democratic reform in Syria years ago. Thing is, there was an understanding that it wouldn't kick off until the US reached it's current depths of imperialistic hubris. There is a similar understanding with Iran and any other place you see any reform in the middle east, with each working on a timetable only to be revealed after it begins.
I blame the neocons.
Hmm ... as mentioned in the update to the "Fact Checking" post above, it's not exactly clear that the Iraq war was the cause of this policy. Corellation != causation, and there are a lot of factors that could be in play here.
Furthermore, even if the Iraq war was a major contributing factor, it doesn't mean that other alternative (and less destructive) methods of pressure couldn't have acheived the same result.
Joey and Jerry were walking down the street, when Sam came up with a gun and said, "gimmee your money." Joey told him no and Sam shot him dead. He repeated to Jerry, "gimmee your money." Jerry did as he asked.
In a window 4 stories above, Jen and her husband Bill watched the whole thing transpire. Bill said, "Boy, that one guy seems pretty charitable giving his money out like that, wish he'd give me some." Jen said, "No dear, he wasn't being charitable, he gave him that money because the guy with the gun shot the other guy." Bill replied, "correlation doesn't equal cause you dumb bitch, how the hell do you know that's why he gave him money?"
Can anyone tell me more about this Syrian Kurd uprising of two weeks ago and its nonviolent crushing?!?
moonbiter
By "less destructive" do you mean an alternative that wouldn't have destroyed Saddam Hussein?
tidbit,
That is at best a misleading analogy, and at worst a red herring. 🙂
Actually Jean, it wasn't intended to be an analogy. It was more an illustrative caraciture indicating the folly of applying "correlation does not equal cause" to one time, real-life situations lacking any sort of experimental control, as opposed to applying it to epidemiological studies.
As for it being a red herring, I can assure you I wasn't trying to get the people of Reason to believe that Joey's murder in any way plays a factor in the current situation in Syria. But then again, my comment can be correlated with a thread on the subject, so I can see how you might conclude that was my intention.
tidbit,
Well, to be blunt, it is rather easy to imply that you think American actions in Iraq did cause some of these actions in Syria; so at best what you have done by your most recent comments is to undermine your own position. In other words, they work equally well against those who claim that the correlation exists in a one-off situation such as this.
Jean, firstly, the speaker/writer implies, the listener reader infers. If you inferred that I was trying to make a specific point about Syria, you were mistaken, but as I mentioned before, that is understandable (and I forgive you).
Once again, my comment was inspired by the way the "correlation does not equal cause" idea is bandied about (as moonbiter did above).
As for Syria, I think common sense can suffice, yet I'm not sure anyone here (including me) has any. As my granddaddy used to say, find a man with common sense, and you find the correct answers to a subset of life's questions.
Carry on, this thread is nearing it's end, half way down the page and barely a dozen posts. I shall not weep, I shall not.
tidbit,
First, my English language skills can always be approved; its not my mother tongue.
Second, thankyou for clarifying your position.
Third, as to Syria, I'll just assume that you are agnostic.
Or it just could be that Assad is the reformer he was promised to be when he came to power after his father died.
tidbit: "But then again, my comment can be correlated with a thread on the subject, so I can see how you might conclude that was my intention."
JB: "Well, to be blunt, it is rather easy to imply that you think American actions in Iraq did cause some of these actions in Syria;"
I guess in this case, correlation = causation.
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This Immobilien makes a webcheck for "Immobilien", an this Lebensversicherung makes a webcheck for "Lebensversicherung".
Thank you and have a nice day, Jos