House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's Losing His Primary: No Politician is Safe! [UPDATE: He Lost!]

UPDATE: From Politico via Drudge, the raw vote totals on David Brat's surprising upset over House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, 55.9 to 44.1 right now.

THE ORIGINAL POST:

Talking Points Memo is reporting on early, and shocking, exit polls early results from Virginia in House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's primary bid:

House Minority Leader Eric Cantor's (R-VA) primary fight looked much more serious than many had thought.

With 52 percent of precincts reporting 41 minutes after polls closed primary challenger David Brat was leading Cantor, 57.9 percent to 42.1 percent.

Who is Brat? He is an economics professor at Randolph-Macon College. Brat was regarded as a long shot candidate but Cantor's campaign still spent over $1 million on advertising to stress that the top House Republican is a "strong conservative."

The Washington Post rightly spotted some momentum from the Tea Party-affiliated Brat last month.

It ain't over yet, but no political establishment is safe, it seems.

UPDATE: Associated Press is calling it: Cantor loses!

Interesting money in politics point via Tweet from John M Donnelly of Congressional Quarterly-Roll Call: in official campaign dollars Cantor outspent Brat $5.4 million to $200,000.

UPDATE II: In a positive sign about what one might expect from Brat in at least some respects, see him valorizing Justin Amash and Thomas Massie as the best graded members of the House via an ad from Organize Liberty that he tweeted. (It might have been more about Cantor's bad grade. But still, a nice hat tip to some decent congressmen.)

And as commenter Raven Nation noted below, Brat also has written about Ayn Rand in an academic/scholarly way. (Not sure what he said about her, but he's interested.)

Brat on the issues.

Twitter feed of Zaid Jilani has lots about Brat's campaign manager, Zachary Werrell, who seems to be a libertarian movement-interested fellow of the LewRockwell.com variety--he describes himself as an "Austrian Economics geek" on his TwitterWerrell's LinkedIn.

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  • Fist of Etiquette||

    If only.

  • Winston||

    What chance does Brat have against the Dem?

    It ain't over yet, but no political establishment is safe, it seems.

    So how did the Dem establishment perform?

  • Jordan||

    “This is still the most Republican district in the state, from the west end of Richmond to Culpeper,” Bliley said, “and once he gets through this, the Democrats don’t have a candidate — no one filed.”

    A pretty good chance, it seems...

  • Winston||

    Ah, pretty smart move then to primary Cantor.

  • Winston||

    Well we'll see how Brat performs against Jack Trammell this fall.

  • wareagle||

    hard to win if you don't play. I tend to favor the elimination of any establishment fuck.

  • Winston||

    Well my point is more that if defeating Republican statists doesn't translate into defeating Dem statists too that is not exactly reason for optimism.

    And You Know Who Else wanted to eliminate the Establishment?

  • gaoxiaen||

    Abbie Hoffman?

  • ||

    Spartacus?

  • ||

    Jesus?

  • C. Anacreon||

    Antidisestablishmentarians?

  • UnCivilServant||

    No, they were for the establishment. The Disestablishmentarians wanted to disestablish the Church of England.

  • ||

    George Washington?

  • SweatingGin||

    There is a candidate, they got a prof on at the last minute it sounds like. Sounds like he teaches at the same school as Brat.

  • wareagle||

    loser gets tenure?

  • Dances-with-Trolls||

    Wonder if Cantor tries for a rematch in the general as an independent. Anything stopping him from going for round two?

  • Chaucer||

    It is extremely hard to get on the ballot there if there is not a D or R behind your name.

  • wareagle||

    nope. See: Lieberman, Joe, CT Senate race.

  • Eric L||

    The laws regarding ballot access (how to qualify to get on the ballot) are different in each state. CT is not VA. In some states it is easy to run as an independent; in others almost impossible.

  • Jerryskids||

    I'm pretty sure the Dems would have managed to get a guy in the general whether or not they had a primary. The rules for getting on the ballot generally tend to become merely suggestions when it comes down to it.

  • Kevin47||

    I'd be happier if this weren't about immigration reform.

  • ||

    Just because Salon and Drudge say it is does not make it so.

  • ||

    Looking at the issues this guy ran on, it's hard to see it as much else.

  • ||

    Heritage gave Cantor a 52.

    That number is not just based on immigration.

    Conservative district throwing out its Rino rep is not some magical thing that needs an issue...and pointing to the top headline on Drudge for the past week is just being lazy.

  • Swiss Servator, CH yeah!||

    HAHAHAHA - F'ing Establican, off w' ye.

  • Tony||

    You do know that once the tea people get elected and serve, they become the establishment?

  • Wasteland Wanderer||

    So? Politicians are a lot like diapers: they should be changed often, and usually for the same reason.

  • PapayaSF||

    Zing!

  • ||

    The more incumbents who lose, the better.

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    What if an incumbent is up against Hitler?

  • ||

    Or worse... Nicole!

  • Grand Moff Serious Man||

    Nicole/Hitler 2016!

  • ||

    This time, why not the worst worst?

  • Herpes Trismegistus||

    Bill & Opus in '16. Ack... why the fuck not?

  • ||

    Isn't Bill dead again? I guess it doesn't matter, that didn't stop him from running in '88 while dead.

  • Cyto||

    I suppose that since we've had a VP with hairplugs you could run a VP candidate who's had a nose job..... but I still think it is risky.

  • ||

    "You couldn't do worse, America!"

  • Grand Moff Serious Man||

    As long as Nicole is around Hitler will always be the bottom of the ticket.

  • Duke||

    You know who else was up against Hitler?

  • Winston||

    Paul von Hindenburg?

    Ernst Thalmann?

  • ||

    You know who else was up against Hitler?

    Eva Braun?

  • Grand Moff Serious Man||

    Braun biographer Heike Görtemaker notes that Braun and Hitler enjoyed a normal sex life; Braun's friends and relatives described Eva giggling over a 1938 photograph of Neville Chamberlain sitting on a sofa in Hitler's Munich flat with the remark: "If only he knew what goings-on that sofa has seen."
  • ||

    Fascist world leaders need love too, Serious.

  • Irish||

    Chamberlain wasn't the only person who knew how to appease Hitler.

  • Irish||

    Do you think Hitler and Eva ever engaged in sex games where Eva dressed up as Neville Chamberlain and pretended not to notice while Hitler stole all her panties?

  • Grand Moff Serious Man||

    Was that a Freudian slip about your own role playing habits, Irish?

  • Sudden||

    I have it on good authority that Irish's role playing habits involve his mistresses sole sartorial option being the gold paint and dress donned by the lead singer of The Cranberries in the video for Zombie.

  • wareagle||

    she dressed up like Poland and he invaded her. Too obvious?

  • Mickey Rat||

    Goring needs to dress up like Stalin and simultaneously invade her backside.

  • ||

    Meh, I'd go with Hitler. Why not? Try something new.

  • Duke||

    At least we'd have great roads and cutting edge rocket program.

  • BSubversive.com||

    And really sweet uniforms.

  • Dances-with-Trolls||

    Campaign like a Boss!

  • Sudden||

    And free day care for adolescents!

  • Swiss Servator, CH yeah!||

    Oh, and the Tea Party is dead, eh Rockefeller Republicans?

  • ||

    That is what I was just thinking. What these idiots didn't get when they were waging war on the tea party and libertarian members is that those guys are there because they have popular support.

    Looks like the chickens are coming home. I bet Boehner is shitting his pants.

  • steve baker||

    "tea party"

    There is a difference.

    It matters!

  • Jordan||

  • Winston||

    Also are there no PM links because of all the crack Nick smoked to claim that we are in a libertarian era?

  • Grand Moff Serious Man||

    Immigration might be a talking point to toss out there for the Tea Party-types but I feel this really reflects a simple disdain for people who have been in Congress a long time and do jackshit to actually promote smaller government.

  • Raven Nation||

    I used to live in that part of the country and it's hard to imagine immigration being a huge primary issue. Maybe, but seems unlikely.

    Also, from Brat's c.v.:

    “An Analysis of the Moral Foundations in Ayn Rand” by Katy Holland and David Brat, presented and published in the proceedings of Southeast Informs, Myrtle Beach, SC, October 6, 2010

    Whole thing here:

    http://faculty.rmc.edu/dbrat/research.html

  • ||

    I can see the fact that Cantor told voters one thing on immigration while moving in another could piss off primary voters.

    That does not make immigration "the issue". Being a lying rat bastard is the issue.

    Also i am sure lying about immigration probably isn't the first time lying with Cantor.

  • PapayaSF||

    You don't think a Republican pushing amnesty while thousands of minors pour across the border had anything to do with his defeat? I do. I'll bet if Cantor was not a prime GOP amnesty-booster, he would have won.

  • ||

    He wasn't a prime amnesty booster though.

    He was a secret one behind the scenes while in his election fliers he was saying he was against amnesty.

    And yes I think in Virginia the "thousands of minors pouring across the boarder" would be an abstraction barely understood or acknowledged by the primary voters there.

    Cantor has been in office for a long time. He has pissed off conservative voters for a long time. And immigration for the right is like global warming for the left. They care but it is no an issue that sways voters very hard.

    a $200,000 candidate does not beat a $5.4 million dollar candidate over immigration in a primary in Virginia.

    Voters were pissed at Cantor probably for a whole host of reasons.

  • Irish||

    You mean that declaring the Tea Party dead based on one week of election results last month may have been a bit premature?

  • Irish||

    Hell, using the exact same tendency for extrapolation that the media used after McConnell's win, I hereby declare that the establishment is dead and the Tea Party will never lose another election.

    Can I be a reporter now?

  • ||

    Wait, you're not?

    *starts dismantling Irish Times printing press*

  • Sudden||

    Irish Times?

    That sounds more like a whiskey than a printing press.

  • ||

    I'm fairly certain they're the same thing in Ireland.

  • Dances-with-Trolls||

    Can I be a reporter now?

    Can you slightly re-word and re-type a government press release? That seems to be the only required skill these days.

  • ||

    Have you been invited to JournoList? Are you functionally retarded? No to both? Then no.

  • Bo Cara Esq.||

    "You mean that declaring the Tea Party dead based on one week of election results last month may have been a bit premature?"

    With a heavy side order of wishful thinking on the part of many.

  • Cytotoxic||

    Yeah I may have prematurely dejaculated when I got all depressed and called time on the TP a little while ago. Still not sure where it's going.

    BTW there is a 'sore loser' law in Virginia. Cantor can't run on a ballot.

  • ||

    He cannot run as another party. The only work around is a write-in ballot, and his campaign does have enough money to do that. Since the whole point of his ascension is the (R) at the end of Virginia-7, that's to be seen.

  • Dances-with-Trolls||

    Question now is does the GOP support Brat or do they try to throw the seat to keep the TP from gaining any momentum or influence?

  • Bo Cara Esq.||

    There is no Democrat opposing.

  • Irish||

    ^ This is a better reason Brat will win than the reason I gave.

  • Dances-with-Trolls||

    The barbarians are at the gates!

    Seriously I have no idea who this Brat guy is, but I am definitely happy to see Cantor go. Even if he's a shitheel Brat won't have the position to cause any real trouble.

  • Lady Bertrum||

    I think there is a dem opposing. He teaches at the same college Brat does. I'll google.

  • Bo Cara Esq.||

    The Lady is correct:

    "The winner of the GOP primary will face Democratic Party nominee Jack Trammell — a professor at Randolph-Macon College, the same school where Brat works — in the general election this fall."

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....story.html

  • Lady Bertrum||

    Ahhh, yes. I couldn't find it. Thanks, Bo.

  • ||

    Two community college profs battling it out?

    Best election contest EVER!!!

  • Bill Dalasio||

    Not really a community college. It's a small liberal arts college. They used to be my college's rival.

  • Irish||

    The district is a 75% white R +10.

    I legitimately don't think it would be possible to throw that district, especially given that the president's party usually under performs at midterms.

  • ||

    They tried this in FL already and the guy won anyway. I think we are seeing the death of the establishment repubs.

  • Bo Cara Esq.||

    The trailers before the X-men movie I watched today indicate that Michael Bay is doing both another Transformers movie AND the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?

    After seeing that, a Hillary Clinton Presidency might just be anti-climatic in apocalyptic terms.

  • Jordan||

    And the TMNT costumes look like utter shit. At least the Transformers themselves look badass.

  • ||

    And the TMNT costumes look like utter shit.

    you mean CGI skins (think Golom in LoTR) not costumes.

  • MJGreen||

    He's not directing the TMNT movie. I think it's actually his stunt coordinator directing it. If that makes it better or worse, I don't know.

  • ||

    So it'll be Michael Bay Lite. Yay.

  • ||

    What if I said Bay movies on average are better then Joss movies?

    "You know what happens to a toad when it is struck by lightning?"

  • ||

    Michael Bay is doing

    Pretty sure both are already made.

  • Agammamon||

    See! This just goes to show how important money is to politics. Government matching funding now!.

  • Dances-with-Trolls||

    I wished our government was matched to it's funding..

  • Lady Bertrum||

    Brat is an economics professor. Probably not a Keynesian. Good for VA.

  • UnCivilServant||

    No guarantees just by the job title. My econ professor was a Keynesian. From the rest of his platform, Brat probably isn't but the job doesn't say anything either way.

  • Tak Kak||

    I'm going to credit Drudge and Breitbart for continually pushing those immigrant warehousing stories.

    Still, I do enjoy an upset.

  • ||

    You would be wrong.

    How big of an issue do you really think immigration reform in Virginia is?

    If I had to guess extending the debt limit was more of a factor.

  • BSubversive.com||

    There's only one thing better than an incumbent loosing an election.

  • ||

    Laser light shows at the planetarium?

  • Lady Bertrum||

    Percocet?

  • BSubversive.com||

    Fine. There are only two things better than an incumbent loosing.

  • ||

    Maybe consolidate? Taking Percocet before settling in for a laser light show at the planetarium?

  • BSubversive.com||

    I've not done that in 30 years, the last time I was there to review it for my HS paper, but it was LSD not percs, although the percs would go quite well with the acid.

  • ||

    If you're going to take some Perc before a laser light show, you'd better get stoned too. And have a little booze as well. And then you're talking.

  • thom||

    Percocet is full of acetaminophen. Mix it with booze only if you want to pulverize your liver.

  • Vulgar Madman||

    Isn't that pronounced, planet arium?

  • Trials and Trippelations||

    A good beer?

  • Agammamon||

    Three things, there are three things better than an incumbent losing. Laser light shows at the Planetarium, Percocet, and beer.

    And internet porn *DAMN!*

  • Sudden||

    A good beer, yes. A Trippel? Meh.*

    *I kid, as I'm planning to do an Alllagash Curieux clone this month.

  • Trials and Trippelations||

    God, I miss homebrewing.

  • Grand Moff Serious Man||

    Crushing one's enemies, seeing them driven before you, and hearing the lamentations of the women?

  • Sudden||

    obligatory +1 for Conan quote

  • JagerIV||

    you barbaric savage, miss identifying the great words the that Humanitarian Gengis Kan as those of a loincloth wearing barbarian with an Austrian accent.

    For shame.

  • MJGreen||

    Hitler?

  • Mickey Rat||

    How is a politician setting an election free better than most everything?

  • John||

    Lol. Fuck these crap weasels. They all need to go.

  • Cytotoxic||

    I'm sure Cantor sucked and he's been around way too long, but how bad was he really? It seemed like there was a lot worse. I am disturbed that the moving issue seemed to be more retarded hysteria over amnesty and how DREAMers are ruining America. This might just be bordertards trying to seize this victory as their own.

  • SweatingGin||

    You don't get to pick black swans.

    Apparently Brat has been complaining about NSA, as well.

  • John||

    Amnesty is wildly unpopular in a lot of places. Cantor made himself Mr Amnesty. It won him the beltway douche bag vote but not the votes that counted.

  • Cytotoxic||

    Amnesty is wildly unpopular amongst the section of the population that has gone Full Retard over it. Most people-I think polls say something over 80%-don't care about immigration.

  • Irish||

    Most people-I think polls say something over 80%-don't care about immigration.

    Most people don't care about immigration enough to change their vote based on it, but most people are against increased immigration.

    Source.

    It's a lot closer than it used to be, but 71% of people are still in favor of keeping immigration the same or decreasing it.

  • Kristine||

    And most people are against amnesty.

    I don't expect illegal immigration to matter much to those living in non-border states, but for anyone to dismiss the whole issue as retarded hysteria is, well, retarded.

  • ||

    I live in a border state and I dismiss it as retarded hysteria.

  • ||

    Me too...but it boarders with Canada...

    Honestly I should care...those dirty Canucks are spread diseases.

  • John||

    I a pretty sure Ca for would disagree with that assessment. Maybe people like you and your "go fuck yourself you dumb hillbillies" approach are not helping the cause

  • John||

    And your butt hurt and tears over this are delicious.

  • Cytotoxic||

    What butthurt? What tears? You sure are quick to fantasize.

  • XM||

    People are generally for amnesty. Even the party is moving in that direction.

    But it's not a game changer in terms of votes.

  • Sticky Fingaz||

    I think this is about right.

    I wish it weren't. Brat has some pretty strong economic libertarian ties.

    He's part of the BB&T program for the Study of Capitalism, has written on Ayn Rand, and the compatibility of Adam Smith and Judeo-Christian ethics.

    He's spoken at Cato.

    On the social side, he's a pro-life yokeltarian but he also puts in a good word for the 10th Amendment on his Issues page.

  • Cytotoxic||

    Maybe he's faking? Hidden open-borders agenda?

  • Kristine||

    Retarded hysteria?

    I live in Arizona. It's not hysteria, it's a real problem.

  • Cytotoxic||

    No it isn't. People like you and the policies you support are the problem.

  • PapayaSF||

    Kristine is correct, Cytotoxic is not.

  • Cytotoxic||

    Nope the evidence backs me 100%. All of the 'problems' of illegal immigration are created by the policies that the tards screaming about the problems supported in the first place.

  • PapayaSF||

    Please explain how the recent influx of unaccompanied minors is a result of the policies of people who don't like mass immigration of illegals.

  • ||

    but how bad was he really?

    He was the houses majority leader.

    So all those shitty things done to keep tea party out and blocked was done by him. And all that caving into Obama and the dems was him.

    retarded hysteria over amnesty

    The issue is not immigration. All politics are local. I seriously doubt Virginia republicans give a shit about it.

  • Cytotoxic||

    You've convinced me to be happy.

  • Fluffy||

    But wait -

    They told me that the Tea Party was an astroturf front for big money in politics. And that money drowned out political participation.

    So how...did the Tea Party guy...spend $200,000 on mailers, against $5.4 million spent by an incumbent and win?

    I iz confused.

  • SweatingGin||

    It's like how President Romney bought the last election.

  • Cytotoxic||

    He was the incumbent right?

  • Whahappan?||

    Yeah, he outspent Obama what, 10-1, 20-1 or something.

  • Mokers||

    Racism, war on women, corporations. They will find something to explain this away.

  • C. Anacreon||

    I'm confused too. I thought Citizens United meant big money would control all politics and elections forever.

  • ||

    Apparently mailers are very effective.

  • Grand Moff Serious Man||

    No Party, No Problem, No Kennedy Cold Open

  • Fluffy||

    Wow, this Brat guy has potential. Thanks, Google.

  • John||

    If only the dems would start primarying their various assholes Sadly most dems are too far gone for that.

  • ||

    Dem voters vote they way they are told.

  • MSimon||

    Cantor on Drugs: http://www.ontheissues.org/va/....._Drugs.htm

    NORML rates him at -20 i.e. staunch prohibitionist.

  • Sticky Fingaz||

    This makes me sad. I used to go to the same synagogue as him and was pretty close with his brother. :(

  • Harvard||

    Immigration policy, the one reason I shy away from the Libertarian vote.

  • ||

    Tulpa?

  • Knarf the Yenrabian||

    filtername

  • Harvard||

    Nah. Oft times idiotic positions on zero zoning will do it too.

  • Kristine||

    I think it's a beautiful thing seeing $200k defeat $5.4M. I'm not talking about the specific people in the race, I'm only commenting about the Big Dog losing to the Underdog and in such a HUGE way.

    It just goes to show that ANY American who wants to make a difference, who wants to run for office, can't use the excuse about being outspent by the establishment. It can be done.

  • Sticky Fingaz||

    We should have 1000 member of the House of Representatives. Then this sort of thing would happen more often.

  • ||

    There is only one incumbent (maybe two - I don't know too much about Massie) in the House that I would be upset about losing. Cantor most certainly ain't it.

  • ||

    Well, Justin does hold a 20 point lead over Ellis...but that's no lock at this stage.

  • croaker||

  • Notorious G.K.C.||

    There's one Cantor who will be singing soprano from now on, lol

    trytheveal.com

  • Tony||

    Immigration matters to Latinos and white xenophobes. Obviously it's time to shore up the white xenophobe vote.

  • ||

    Virginia does not boarder Mexico.

    Not even lying. You can check it yourself on a map.

  • ||

    Can I immigrate to Mexico or Honduras or Guatemala or some other Central or Latin American country just by entering? If not, does that make the population of those countries xenophobes?

  • SIV||

    "Why do they hate pale people...and browner people...and lighter brown people...and yellow people?"

  • Vampire||

    Later Cantor. The redemocrasocialans are loosing their grip lol.

  • eyeroller||

    Brat is clearly a top-notch economist. Just look at his website:

    "Adding millions of workers to the labor market will force wages to fall and jobs to be lost."

  • ||

    I don't know how you can call someone a "libertarian" if he is anti-immigration.

    Being anti-immigration means you are in favor of having to ask permission from the government before exchanging money for work.

  • Azathoth!!||

    Except he's not 'anti-immigration'.

    He's anti illegal immigration.

    There is a difference.

  • Christophe||

    If most immigration is illegal, and you're against changing that, what are you really?

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