Obama Leads Romney by 6 and Is Ahead of Santorum and Paul by 10 In New Reason-Rupe National Poll

President Barack Obama leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 46 percent to 40 percent in the latest national Reason-Rupe poll of 1,200 adults. With independent voters, Obama holds a 12-point advantage over Romney (47-35).

Rep. Ron Paul and former Sen. Rick Santorum both trail Obama by 10 points, 47 percent to 37 percent. However, Paul performs better than Romney and Santorum among independents, trailing Obama 45-40.

In a hypothetical three-way presidential race with Paul running as an independent candidate, Obama’s support drops to 41 percent, but he still easily tops Romney’s 30 percent and Paul’s 17 percent.

In another three-way race, Obama beats Santorum 42 percent to 27 percent, with Paul getting 18 percent of the vote as an independent.

 

Full poll results found here.

Nationwide telephone poll conducted March 10th-20th of both mobile and landline phones, 1200 adults, margin of error +/- 3 percent. Columns may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. Full methodology can be found here

Emily Ekins is the director of polling for Reason Foundation where she leads the Reason-Rupe public opinion research project, launched in 2011. Follow her on Twitter @emilyekins.

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  • o3||

    twice is nice!...
    ...or i picked a bad day to quit sniffing glue

  • rather troll alert||

    The above post appears to have been made by an individual who assumes multiple identities, including, but not limited to, "Mary Stack", "rather", "White Indian", "rctlfy", and "mstack60". Potential aliases could also include "shrike" and "o3", but are not confirmed.

    Please do not reply to posts made by this person or attempt to engage in debate.

    Characteristics of postings by this person include use of bold and italics, cutting and pasting of writings by Jason Godesky (who appears to not be involved), debating in bad faith, impersonating others, using inciteful language, and making large quantities of posts 24/7.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

  • sticks||

    Rather sucks. White Indian sucks. Please explain why you think they are one in the same.

  • BakedPenguin||

    Why don't you tell us, Mary Stack.

  • Extra Sausage||

    "Mary Stack" seems to have gotten under the skin of the collective.

    Discuss.

  • onnta||

    I think they just get angry when a woman violates their narrative.

  • ||

    Thrice is better.

  • EDG reppin' LBC||

  • Bingo||

    Uhh, it might have been a better idea to make a few posts over the week instead of dumping all the Reason-Rupe stuff in a single afternoon.

  • Appalachian Australian||

    In other words, it's not possible to vote against Obama this year.

  • ||

    Obama is the incumbent and is still well below 50%. Unless Romney is found with a dead girl or a live boy, doubtful things will get much worse for him now. And it is hard to see how Obama picks up more votes than he already has. Absent a third party, whoever wins has to get to 50%. That is usually a lot harder for an incumbent, who is below 50% after three years in office.

  • shrike||

    You're an idiot. 50% means nothing. Only electoral votes do.

    Romney is pathetic. ANN Romney is better than her pathetic spouse.

  • shrike||

    also, christfag

  • ||

    Once in my lifetime has a candidate lost the popular vote and not won the election. 50% matters.

  • Mo||

    In three-eights of the elections in my life, the eventual winner had less than 50% of the popular vote and in one of them, the winner had 50.7%. So 50% isn't that important.

  • ||

    Those other elections had third party candidates. 50% is very important absent a third party candidate, which is what I said.

    I know it has been a while since I took fist grade math, but are you aware of a way to win a two way election without getting over 50%?

  • Mo||

    There's no such thing as a two way election. Last I checked, Gary Johnson will be running, as will the usual coterie of third party candidates.

    FWIW, Romney would need those undecideds to break two for one for. The way the economy is going and Romney's Republican John Kerry impression make that a tough hill to climb without help from the economy.

  • shrike||

    With independent voters, Obama holds a 12-point advantage over Romney (47-35).

    Romney stands for nothing. He is easily the worst candidate since Dukakis.

  • Barry D||

    What about Dole, McCain and Kerry?

    Does Michael Dukakis have to be the butt of jokes FOREVER?

  • shrike||

    Dukakis established his own depth of suckage way past those three. Romney has a good chance to sink lower though.

  • Maxxx||

    Romney's an elephant t(b)Songass

  • kinnath||

    These polls are useless. The election will be decided by the S&P 500, the unemployment rate, and gas prices.

    If the general population is relatively "happy" with life, the incumbent skates on by. Otherwise, the incumbent goes home in January 2013.

  • shrike||

    Rational. The S&P 500 is 1410 now. If its 1100 in November Obama is doomed even though it was 800 when he was sworn in. Same way with gas and UE.

    The trend is what matters.

  • ||

    Another "summer of recovery" like the last two, and Obama is toast.

    It would have been nice for the Repubs to put up a candidate who might have a shot regardless of the economy, but we have the proverbial "generic Republican", so its all up to economy now.

  • ||

    You mean S&P in real dollars, right?

    Oops...no you don't.

  • kinnath||

    I truly hate to defend shrike here, but I don't think it matters if it's real dollars or not.

    The driving factor is public perception. If the people are pleased by seeing their 401K go up instead of down, then the trend alone can have an impact on the election.

  • shrike||

    yeah, real dollars.

    Not some phony gold-weighted dollars.

    Uncle Buck is still King of the Hill and the DXY proves it.

  • ||

    So that is adjusted for inflation? No. It is $1414 today. So that is in today's dollars not 2009 dollars.

    You claim to work in finance? And you don't know this? You are so stupid Shrike you make Tony look bright sometimes.

    Of course you an excuse, you are fucking clinically insane. So there is that.

  • Paul||

    Not some phony gold-weighted dollars.

    You know, I'm not a gold-bug/gold-standard guy, but to suggest that what we have now are "realer" than gold-weighted dollars seems highly dubious. And I'm being polite.

  • shrike||

    So when gold falls 50% does that mean stocks gain 100%?

  • ||

    If stocks stay constant, I could buy that analysis.

    Gold's not falling 50% any time soon, btw. Next time use a plausible number.

  • rather troll alert||

    The above post appears to have been made by an individual who assumes multiple identities, including, but not limited to, "Mary Stack", "rather", "White Indian", "rctlfy", and "mstack60". Potential aliases could also include "shrike" and "o3", but are not confirmed.

    Please do not reply to posts made by this person or attempt to engage in debate.

    Characteristics of postings by this person include use of bold and italics, cutting and pasting of writings by Jason Godesky (who appears to not be involved), debating in bad faith, impersonating others, using inciteful language, and making large quantities of posts 24/7.

    Thank you for your cooperation.

  • ||

    Uncle Buck is still King of the Hill

    Not for much longer. All sorts of bilateral agreements are going in place as we speak setting up trade settlement in non-dollar currencies.

    We are rapidly losing "reserve currency" status.

  • Barry D||

    Furthermore, McCain was WAY ahead in the polls at the end of Summer, 2008.

    Not just the candidate, but the candidate's whole party, rides this wave.

  • Barry D||

    Should have said "whole incumbent party".

  • ||

    Call it a dead Trayvon bounce.

  • kinnath||

    Golf clap.

  • o3||

    oprah clap
    w those lil binos

  • ||

    +100

  • Loki||

    Dead black kids bounce? Who knew.

  • Cytotoxic||

    Just like basketballs...

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    Margin of error = idiots who are home to answer the phone and, furthermore, willing to respond to pollsters percent.

  • The Derider||

    Check the methodology-- includes 496 cell phone users, 232 of whom do not have a land line at all.

  • Fist of Etiquette||

    Poll results cause blindness, give you hairy palms and make Baby Jesus cry. And those cell phone users would be outside my margin of error... OR WOULD THEY?

  • Paul||

    They call cell phones now. I got a few poll calls a month or so ago, and I just kept punching the digit for "bailouts are like rainbows".

  • ||

    YOU SONS OF BITCHES!
    You deleted my comment.
    You anti-free speech fucks.

  • The Derider||

    I wonder what Mitt's polling numbers would look like if he hadn't spent the last 6 months trying to convince the electorate he isn't a moderate.

    Better nationally, but he probably would have lost the primary already.

    Thanks tea party!!!

  • Paul||

    Yeah, thanks Tea Party. If they're responsible for the Republicans losing a dozen elections due to their stupidity and lip service to small government, consider it message sent.

  • Obama||

    I got this one in the bag. We're calling this year's campaign strategy Sister Souljah Plus. Every six weeks until November the forces of Sharpton, Farrakhan and Jackson are going to find something new to demagogue and when the cause of the moment reaches the breaking point, I'll intercede and calm things down. By November you'll all have the Pavlovian response to vote for me to keep the black man in line.

  • Racist Gun Dog||

    But I can only hunt so much.

  • ||

    Maybe BO's presumptuous remark to Medvedev was justified.

    President Barack Obama told Russia’s leader Monday that he would have more flexibility after the November election to deal with the contentious issue of missile defense, a candid assessment of political reality that was picked up by a microphone without either leader apparently knowing.

    “This is my last election,” Obama is heard telling outgoing Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. “After my election, I have more flexibility.”

    Medvedev replied in English, according to a tape by ABC News: “I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir,” an apparent reference to incoming President Vladmir Putin.
  • Killazontherun||

    His first four years were Obama Constrained? Fuck.

  • Brandon||

    This might not be his last election if he loses.

  • Redland Jack||

    Hmmm. So, in 3 candidate races, 10% of Paul's support comes from Romney/Santorum voters, 5% comes from Obama voters, and 2-3% comes from 3rd party/non-voters.
    When Paul runs head-to-head with Obama, 5-6% of those who would have voted for Romney/Santorum switch over to Obama, causing Obama to win the election.
    Er, with the caveat that all of those '%' mean percentage points.

  • The Derider||

    Apparently those 5% like the federal reserve more than they hate obama.

  • Geotpf||

    Obama is at dead girl/live boy territory. This isn't news. Had the Republicans nominated a Reagan, or even a Nixon, maybe they would have had a shot. But they nominated the Republican version of John Kerry-and he was the best of the dozen or so people who ran for the nomination.

  • shrike||

    A.B.U.

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