At the end of every Oscar night, the man clutching the “best director” and “best picture” statues experiences a shuddering moment of regret. Yes, he won. Yes, he’s notched a place in the history books alongside Kevin Costner and The English Patient. But unless he’s James Cameron or Peter Jackson, he’s won small. He hasn’t broken any records, and his mind wanders: What if a few votes changed in the Best Actor’s race? What if that Michel Gondry movie was nominated for “adapted” instead of “original screenplay”? Could I have won even more for a sweep?
That internal monologue is playing out in the crania of Democrats across the country, from newly-minted leaders like Dianne Feinstein to bloggers to journalists like Rick Perlstein. Just as Karl Rove argues that dumb luck pushed the Democrats over the finish line in a few dozen seats, Democrats argue that a dozen or more seats were within their grasp until the Republican Fraud Machine got grinding on all cylinders. Perlstein, author of the peerless conservative moment history Before the Storm, summed up the mood:
Republicans cheat. To what extend did their cheating on Election Day keep the will of the people from being fully registered? Just how close did it come to keeping the new majority from arriving? And what does the kind of cheating we saw Tuesday -- and its antecedents in the past and its likely echoes in the future -- portend for the project of turning liberalism once again into the dominant force in American politics?
All of these questions have answers – “to no extent,” “not very
close,” and “portends pretty well, actually.” Of all the dirty
tricks that the parties (mostly Democrats) worried would steal the
2006 votes – electronic voting machines, sleazy attack ads,
election day chicanery – only automated “robocalls” that harassed
voters look like they might have changed a few outcomes. But more
about those later. Those other terrifying problems, far from
wrecking the campaign, actually represented some progress in the
cleanest and most representative election the hyperpower’s held in
a very long time.
“Sleazy attacks.”
Democrats, far more than Republicans, started the election cycle
preemptively sweating the negative ads that the GOP would unleash.
The consensus is that negative attacks from the Swift Boat Veterans
for Truth threw the 2004 Kerry campaign so badly off its game that
the candidate never recovered. (Kerry agrees; witness the insane
overreaction to criticism of his “botched joke.”) So bloggers
watched the airwaves like hawks, crying havoc
when they spotted Swift Boat backer Bob Perry spraining his
check-writing hand for anti-Democrat TV ads. They blew an army of
whistles when Republicans launched ads alleging Democrats would
cripple US intelligence, bill taxpayers for
phone sex, and get it on with
Playboy playmates.
Surprise: Except for the Playboy spot, the ads fell flat. Some,
like attacks on John Murtha in his rural Pennsylvania district, or
attacks on Allan Mollohan in his nearby book of West Virginia,
ended up backfiring – the huge dumps of money by out-of-state
interlopers were so obvious as to rub voters the wrong way.
As David Mark
noted in his November 2006 Reason feature on negative
campaigning, “In this age of instantaneous information via blogs,
round-the-clock cable coverage, and other media, political attacks
can be swiftly countered.”
Even attacks that happened too close to the election to be
rebutted, like the Maryland Republican Party’s bogus election day
flyers, were laughed out of the voting booth. Democrats seethed
with complaints over
pamphlets, handed out in black areas, that marked Republican
Gov. Robert Ehrlich and Lt. Gov Michael Steele (a U.S. Senate
candidate) as “Democrats.” But voters who took the flyers entered a
voting booth to find both men bearing the scarlet (R) next to their
names. Black voters gritted their teeth and voted against the
Republican ticket in a landslide.
“Faulty electronic voting.”
The panic over Diebold, WinVote and other ATM-style voting machines
that started in 2004 didn’t end with the Democratic victory.
California just elected a secretary of state who campaigned hard
against Diebold; she’s represented by a Sen. Dianne Feinstein who
will “use her
position [in the new Democratic majority] to examine reported
problems with electronic voting machines.”
She’ll probably find out that electronic voting, paperless or
spitting out reams of voting tickets, has massively cut down on
lost votes and dirty tricks. And the lost votes and tricks of the
paper voting era, especially the last decade or so of it,
disproportionately smacked down the Democrats. Look at Florida 2000
– yes, just this one more time – where literally tens of thousands
of votes were lost or miscounted simply because of voter error.
Democrats could hardly count the votes they lost by telling voters
“to vote on every page.” (When the voters were transported from
GOTV buses to polling stations they discovered that the vote for
president extended to two pages, and punched a name on both,
invalidating their votes.) As the
New York Times reported, “More than 20 percent of the
votes cast in predominantly African- American precincts were tossed
out, nearly triple the majority white precincts. In two largely
African-American precincts, nearly one-third of the ballots were
invalidated.”
Democrats sidestepped that nightmare in 2006. Electronic machines,
with their cumbersome write-in technology, practically gift-wrapped
Tom DeLay’s old House seat for them. And the mostly electronic
balloting of Virginia helped prevent last-minute fraud while
speeding up the count of the vote, shorting out a recount that
could have left the balance of the Senate hanging for months. All
this from machines Democrats feared Republicans would rig and DNC
Chairman Howard Dean had warned “are not reliable and … shouldn't
be used.”
“Harassing calls.”
For an example of how the most heinous of the election day tricks
still couldn’t boost a losing campaign, look to Raj Bhakta. The (to
use the nicest possible term) self-assured House candidate –
best remembered for renting an elephant and mariachi band to
make a point about the “circus” of border security – spent his
meager election week budget on automated
calls that introduced listeners to a screaming, hysterical woman
who moaned, “I had an abortion performed on me.”
The call completely backfired, and Democratic Rep. Allyson
Schwartz smashed Bhakta by 32 points, running 10 points ahead of
what Kerry had scored in the district two years ago.
But Bhakta’s calls aren’t the focus of “dirty tricks” allegations.
The focus is the National Republican Congressional Committee, which
sponsored calls in close districts that began with the phrase “I’m
calling with information about (Candidate X)” and hit targeted
homes as many as one dozen times. Democrats
allege that the calls flipped voters in four (or more) close
races after voters listened to the first sentence and assumed the
forces of Pelosi were pestering them during dinner. But listen
to the
calls, and the tone of the robo-caller gives away the game. It
doesn't excuse the trick, but it reveals how lame it was, and how
impactful it wasn't.
All of this is relevant because the impulse for newly-empowered
Democrats to attack these elements of the election might be
irresistible. Their attitude might be summed up by a
non-officeholder, Markos Moulitsas, in his
opinion of the robocallers: "These people need to end up in
prison. Fines aren't good enough." But before they launch a new
wave of campaign reforms (and campaign finance reforms), Democrats
should consider how the worst "dirty tricks" of 2006 were the
result of loopholes in previous campaign reforms.
Some suggestions: Don't wrap the system up in even more red tape.
Let the multi-millionaires blow their money on junk ads, the
companies that produce the smoothest e-vote machines get the big
contracts, and introduce the robocallers to the existing Do Not
Call lists. And if that doesn't work, the phone companies can
always start billing the parties a little more for robotic calls.
If they think irritating voters 10 times before bedtime is a good
way of winning them over, let them put their money where their
cybernetic mouths are.
David Weigel is an assistant editor of Reason. He lives in
Washington, DC.
Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time.