Open Thread

What’s on your mind?

Comments

[Kazinski]

Portland is finding out the consequences of the collapse of public order and accountability in downtown Portland. The top 20 office buildings in Downtown Portland have lost almost 70% of their value since 2019. And the the City economist says they expect the declines yo continue.

https://x.com/i/status/2021457980122947768

Of course the downtown office space market has neen tough everywhere since the pandemic but nationwide most markets are in a slow recovery.

"The U.S. office market posted its seventh consecutive quarter of positive absorption totaling 3.8 million sq. ft. in Q4. Annual absorption of 21 million sq. ft. was well below the long-run average."

https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/q4-2025-us-office-figures

[Commenter_XY]

Portland and Seattle are becoming like Cleveland and Detroit 80 years ago. Why? Their onerous and idiotic regulations and crime; b/c as we see, businesses along with their entrepreneurial owners (e.g. job creators), will leave. Then the upper middle class population leaves. Note: It is happening in NYC and SFO. It is not an accident.

What will Portland and Seattle be like in 60 years (2085), if they stay on their current (statist) path?

[Kazinski]

And they are squandering the advantages they once had.

One reason Bezos picked Seattle was because Washington didn't have an income tax. Now they have a capital gains tax, and are implementing a Millionaires tax.

Bezos now lives in Florida.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Well, the other thing that comes to immediate mind is that if the office bills have lost such a high percentage of the value, they can’t be taxed based on the value they used to have, the city isn’t gonna have to reassess them.

There goes your tax base that produces the taxes for all the money you want to spend. It’s an issue in Boston right now.

[Kazinski]

Portland is facing a 67 million shortfall due to lower taxes.

[Sarcastr0]

Seattle is booming last I heard.

Here is some lazy AI: “ While experiencing a post-pandemic economic transition, Seattle is not in a terminal decline but rather navigating a shift in its growth model. The city saw a record-breaking population boom, growing nearly 40% in the 21st century. Though recent data shows slower growth (0.8% in 2023) and a 2025 dip in jobs, downtown is seeing renewed residential investment, and the region remains a major economic player with significant upcoming events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup. ”

[Commenter_XY]

I don't call sub-1% growth booming, Man of Science.

[Sarcastr0]

Lame cherry picking.
There's plenty of discussion about the .8% snapshot not telling the story.

[Commenter_XY]

You're the one who said it, and cited it, Man of Science. I agreed with your cite, disagreed with your statement that Seattle is booming, and provided context: sub 1% growth is not booming.

I know, logic is hard. But facile rhetoric like your own is easy.

[LexAquilia]

Democrat/minority run communities always trend towards 3rd world corrupt shit holes.

It's a fact.

[Sarcastr0]

While Portland is in decline, your posited causes are not widely held.

Also Andy Ngo remains a terrible source with credibility issues.

Here is another source. Also biased but at least thoughtful and not a partisan bomb thrower: https://oregonbusinessreport.com/2025/12/economist-explains-portlands-decline/

It pints to lots of causes, including policies about crime and the homeless but also plenty of other stuff as well.
That’s also likely not the full picture, but seems a lot more plausible than Dems bad from a right wing liar.

[Commenter_XY]

The best part of your cite was how Portland was directly compared to Detroit decades ago, Man of Science. LMAO. Thanks for buttressing my analogy.

[Sarcastr0]

You seem to think we are arguing about something we are not actually arguing about.

I’m talking the why, not claiming it isn’t happening.

[Sarcastr0]

For folks interested in cities as more than an avenue for shallow partisan bashing, I recommend this YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@CityNerd

Dude goes to cities, and does analysis and has opinions. He's upbeat and smart and just nice to be around.

[Commenter_XY]

Thought experiment:

How would 9 AI SCOTUS justices interpret the Constitution to decide cases differently than humans?
Would there be 9 different opinions on every case, and no majorities?
Would there be more 9-0 decisions?

I think 1A would change radically; for instance, when 1A says "Congress shall make no law...", why wouldn't AI literally interpret that, only Congress is prohibited, and proceed to trash precedents?

Bonus question: How would an AI lawyer argue cases differently before SCOTUS? There could be an Optimus robot of the future doing just that.

[Brett Bellmore]

"why wouldn't AI literally interpret that, only Congress is prohibited, and proceed to trash precedents?"

Presumably AI would have been trained on the WHOLE Constitution, including the amendments. Then, would it be trained on the precedents, too? Or just set do interpreting it de novo?

[Commenter_XY]

Bonus bonus question: What would you even use to train AI on the Constitution?

The Constitution, and amendments + SCOTUS corpus (all cases + written opinions) + ???

Hammurabic legal code?
The Renaissance and Reformation?
The Federalist papers?
The written recollections of the debates in Philly?
Newspapers of the Founding Era?
Law Professor articles? [I shudder at the thought of Ilya the Lesser training AI]
Student legal papers? [that could be interesting, lol]
Other countries legal decisions?

Just training 'SCOTUS AI' brings up huge issues on what material to use.

[Brett Bellmore]

Indeed, and though I think it's outside the hypothetical, I'm pretty sure that, short of a revolution that would likely displace the Constitution anyway, there's no way the existing powers that be would permit such an AI system if it didn't preserve all the many constitutional distortions we got from FDR forward.

[Sarcastr0]

the many constitutional distortions we got from FDR forward.

Always shoehorning in BrettLaw whining.

The modern world is what's responsible for your comfort as you post about how bad it is.

[Brett Bellmore]

Oh, go pound sand. It's hardly controversial that the FDR Court made huge changes to constitutional jurisprudence, that were hardly consistent with the text. Some people will argue that it was legitimate to do so, but who argues it didn't happen?

[OpinionsVary]

As an intellectual exercise, training just on the constitution (plus maybe a founders era dictionary) seems far more interesting. What do you get if you really do start from first principles and not the thousand tottering towers of interpretation that has given rise to the US constitution as actually exists.

[Brett Bellmore]

Sure.

Test case 1: Constitution + Founding era documents.
Test case 2: Constitution + Everything up to but not including Slaugherhouse.
Test case 3: Constitution + Everything up to but not including Wickard.

I think we'd see that, in all cases, what followed was not a faithful extrapolation of what came before.

[hobie]

For the past two years, the Daily Show has been nailing it. This week, Jon Stewart watches the Turning Point halftime show of the country singer Lee Brice ( https://www.facebook.com/share/v/18EjDkp6uw/ ) A two minute video. Please pay attention. All the phobias and pathetic whining that us normies have to listen to from tough-as-nails, mask-hating MAGA patriots every day. This is it captured perfectly.:

[Lee Brice singing]:
“But it ain’t easy being country.
In this country nowadays.”

[cut back to Jon Stewart, looking confused]: “Wait, I’m…wait. It isn’t? What exactly is so hard about being country nowadays?”

[Back to Brice]:
“I just wanna catch my fish.
Drive my truck.
Drink my beer.”

[Back to Stewart, nodding slowly in comprehension]: “So far it sounds relatively easy. Am I missing a heavier lift?”

[Back to Brice]:
“I just wanna cut my grass.
Feed my dog.
Wear my boots.”

[Back to Stewart, a look of confused consternation]: “Sir, I…Sir, again, I must insist all of these seem like………achievable goals! I mean…you’re wearing boots right now!!! What exactly is it about being country that is so difficult?!”

[Back to Brice]:
“If I tell my own daughter,
That little boys ain’t little girls.”

[Back to Stewart…a long vacant stare into the camera]: “Here we go.”
[Back to Brice]:
“I’ll be up the creek in hot water.
In this cancel-your-ass world.”

[Back to Stewart, a long look of compassion in his eyes as he whispers…]: “You’re so brave. People throw the word ‘hero’ around…”

[LexAquilia]

Of course some elite Jew would shit on a lowly goy. Anti-goy hate is all the rage these days.

[Commenter_XY]

The EPA has just 'axed' some onerous regulations from the Obama era.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/trump-epa-endangerment-finding-climate-change-greenhouse-gas.html

From a legal perspective, what actually changes?
Do the regulations just go 'bye, bye' and companies are free to do what they want, willy-nilly?

What tangible economic gains do the American people get?

[Moderation4ever]

Businesses don't really change the way they work quickly. Rules adopted in the Obama Administration were not implement overnight but rather set a path. I suspect that most businesses will stay on that path knowing that the next administration will likely reinstate the rules. Coal fired power plants are simple to expensive to invest in and build knowing they could be shut down within a few years. Climate change is governed by laws of physics and chemistry and not by the Trump administration.

[Brett Bellmore]

" I suspect that most businesses will stay on that path knowing that the next administration will likely reinstate the rules."

Right. For instance, my employer continued getting rid of our PERC cleaning system even after the reg mandating we do that went away, because the lead times were such that we had already committed by the time that reg got cancelled. And because, yup, we figured it would be back anyway the next time a Democrat was in office anyway.

It's actually a rather damaging ratchet effect: Even during Republican administrations you can't make investments Democrats would disapprove of, because there's nothing stopping the Democrats when they take power from rendering your investment a dead loss. Alternating periods of low and high regulation are functionally indistinguishable from continuous high regulation, the Democrats' power to block industry dominates over the Republicans' power to free it.

This is, I think, a big part of what drove investment away from brick and mortar industry to software: The lower level of regulation and fast lead times meant you could invest knowing your investment wouldn't be rendered worthless before you'd earned your money back.

The US is a low trust regulatory environment, which is severely suppressing investment in long term equipment and infrastructure.

[Sarcastr0]

No ground truth for Brett. Just partisanship.

[Brett Bellmore]

No engaging with what people actually said for Sarcastr0, just partisanship.

[Kazinski]

This is somewhat amusing;

"The Financial Times reported that KPMG— one of the world’s Big Four accounting firms— bullied its own auditor into a 14% fee cut. Their argument was elegant in its simplicity: if your AI is doing the work, your people shouldn’t be billing for it. KPMG’s hapless auditor, Grant Thornton, tried to kick but quickly folded like a WalMart lawn chair, dropping its auditing fee from $416,000 to $357,000.

And now every CFO on Earth is reaching for a calculator.

Here’s the dark comedy. Grant Thornton’s UK audit leader bragged in a December blog post that AI was making their work “faster and smarter.” KPMG took note, and immediately asked why it was still paying the slower-and-dumber price. This is why lawyers tell their clients to stop posting on social media. The marketing department just became the billing department’s worst enemy."

So I guess the first rule of AI adoption is going to be "You do not talk about AI adoption."

https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2026/02/so-much-for-billable-hours.html?m=1

[LexAquilia]

That's hilarious.

[Moderation4ever]

Another example of AI taking away white collar jobs. If auditing firms are not getting paid as much they will reduce staff. Where are the new jobs for the young auditors let go by these firms?

[Commenter_XY]

Can I take your order? Would you like fries with that? = Where are the new jobs for the young auditors let go by these firms?

[Michael P]

Or you say the same thing in a different way -- AI "allows us to deliver more value to our clients". That's ambiguous enough to make them think they're getting more or better services. And maybe it justifies a bump in your costs, although some clients might still argue that "same service but cheaper" should be on the menu.

[Commenter_XY]

https://jonathanturley.org/2026/02/12/ninth-circuit-lifts-injunction-on-the-trump-administration-over-ending-temporary-protective-status-for-immigrants/

TPS is toast for illegal aliens from Honduras, Nicaragua, and Nepal. They join Venezuela's illegal aliens in 'instant deportability'.

We have 35 months to deport them. Or pay them to leave voluntarily. Just so long as they leave.

[Michael P]

Who should the Democrats nominate for President in 2028?

I think their smartest choice would be Josh Shapiro, but polls and Polymarket show him behind Harris, Newsom, AOC and others. I think Shapiro's biggest hurdle is that a large slice of the left is now staunchly antisemitic, and so would not vote for him even though he's probably the most capable and reasonable of their leading candidates.

[Commenter_XY]

Please Kamala, please run again! Please, please, please! And give many, many stump speeches to the American people telling us your deepest thoughts.

I will pay money to see the Joe Rogan 3-hour interview of Big K. We need the laughter.

Shapiro has no chance whatsoever to win the Team D primary.
AOC has almost no chance to win the Team D primary.

Gruesome Newsome is the man with a plan, perfect for Team D. He represents them well, lol.

[hobie]

Most of America's Jews are Libs, so they would probably vote for Shapiro.

[Sarcastr0]

It's fun to speculate and all, but 2028 is a number of political lifetimes away.

[hobie]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/see-chatgpts-hidden-bias-about-your-state-or-city

WAPO reporting that ChatGPT has concluded that the states with the laziest people are all redneck states. But I would also note, anecdotally, that these are all the most neegro-filled states as well.

So what makes these states so lazy? The shiftless hayseeds? The neegroes? Or a combination of both?