Open Thread

What’s on your mind?

Comments

[not guilty]

The New York Times reports:

Nicolás Maduro, the leader of Venezuela, ordered his navy to escort ships carrying petroleum products from port, risking a confrontation with the United States on the high seas as he defied President Trump’s declaration of a “blockade” aimed at the country’s oil industry.

Several ships sailed from Venezuela toward Asia with a Venezuelan naval escort between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, said three people familiar with the transits. None of the commercial vessels are on the list of sanctioned tankers the United States is threatening to target.

But the recent cascade of events, set off by the Trump administration’s seizure of a tanker last week and then by the president’s order of a partial “blockade” on Tuesday, increased the likelihood of a violent conflict.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/us/politics/venezuela-blockade-military-escort-trump.html

President Trump is well past the 60 day window specified in 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b):

(b)Termination of use of United States Armed Forces; exceptions; extension period
Within sixty calendar days after a report is submitted or is required to be submitted pursuant to section 1543(a)(1) of this title, whichever is earlier, the President shall terminate any use of United States Armed Forces with respect to which such report was submitted (or required to be submitted), unless the Congress (1) has declared war or has enacted a specific authorization for such use of United States Armed Forces, (2) has extended by law such sixty-day period, or (3) is physically unable to meet as a result of an armed attack upon the United States. Such sixty-day period shall be extended for not more than an additional thirty days if the President determines and certifies to the Congress in writing that unavoidable military necessity respecting the safety of United States Armed Forces requires the continued use of such armed forces in the course of bringing about a prompt removal of such forces.

If Trump proceeds further -- especially if he escalates the conflict -- without Congressional authorization, that will be an impeachable offense.

[not guilty]

Sorry about my formatting error. The last paragraph on the above comment is nine, and not part of the text of 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b).

[Commenter_XY]

Congress seems not to agree, NG.

But if you think impeachment will work, go for it.

[not guilty]

It likely will not fly with the current Congress. It would be foolish at this point to predict what the House will do after the midterm elections, even though the Senate is unlikely to convict.

[Kazinski]

MTG says Trump's support is collapsing in the GOP caucus in Congress.

Of course she is exhibit A as to why its not. As soon as he said he would be endorsing her primary opponent, she and everyone else knew you could stick a fork into her reelection prospects.

I don't doubt there are a number of GOP moderates uncomfortable with Trump, but they are still stuck with him at least 2 more years until he starts becoming a lamer duck, and its not out of the question he might make an effort to take them down even after he's out of office if they piss him off enough.

[not guilty]

If Hakeem Jeffries is elected Speaker in January 2027, the MAGA cult will become even more batshit crazy than you all are presently.

[Frank Drackman]

As crazy as you are now Major Batguano?

[Dr. Ed 2]

At least 9 of the past 10 Presidents (lord knows what Biden personally said) have said that the War Powers Act was unconstitutional. Note that this includes at least 3 Democrats.

What's the possibility that SCOTUS is actually asked to rule on this and rules that it is unconstitutional?

[not guilty]

"What's the possibility that SCOTUS is actually asked to rule on this and rules that it is unconstitutional?"

That would depend on how willing Chief Justice Whoreberts and his fellow black robed wardheelers are to ignore the plain language of Article I, § 8, which expressly authorizes the Congress "To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces".

[Dr. Ed 2]

Whih is not to be confused with POTUS' Article II powers...

[Joe_dallas]

The Dems have to be batshit crazy to elect Hakeem jefferies as speaker.

[David Nieporent]

If they do, they might lose bookkeeper_joe's vote!

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Trump has jacked up natural gas prices by exporting LNG to China. Obama made us energy independent and Biden made us energy dominant and Trump is squandering all of that to help China!! And remember it was the Bush family that spent decades making China great again and a Bush is still on China’s payroll to this very day!!

[Dr. Ed 2]

The problem with LNG is that there aren't any American-bottom tankers to transport it to US ports.

[Absaroka]

You might have a look at Crowley's American Energy.

[Dr. Ed 2]

OK, ONE boat...

[Joe_dallas]

Natural gas prices today around $4.50 vs the $8.90 during 2022.
Of course, both natural gas & crude oil prices have fluctuated quite a bit over the last century.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Natural gas was cheap for pretty much all of 2023/24…the crazy Texas/Louisiana weather increased the price coming out of lockdowns and then Putin invaded Ukraine which spiked it. But it was cheap for 2 years until Wright approved every LNG export permit.

[Dr. Ed 2]

And escorting ships worked ever so well in the Battle of the Atlantic.

The USN has submarines....

[Dr. Ed 2]

The thing that NG fails to understand is that Impeachment is only a real threat the first time -- to be thrice Impeached is to deflate the value of Impeachment to irrelevance.

Reality is that the Senate is not going to convict him -- or we will have a shooting civil war if the Senate ever did, and the RINOs know that it would be centered in their states where they have too much to lose; not to mention that no one, not even they really want a third Civil War.

The only value of Impeachment is the threat of embarrassment and it got wasted on partisan vindictiveness.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

We would have a “shooting war” if the Senate exercised their constitutional power??? You are insane! Trump is senile…but Vance is worse and he’s not senile. The reason Bush Republicans orchestrated the coup in the first term was because they preferred Pence…but as long as Vance is VP there is no point in impeaching Trump.

[Riva]

No, Not Guilty, it won’t. The president never submitted a report “pursuant to” the statute. And no president has ever recognized the War Powers Resolution as fully controlling or binding. But democrats don’t actually care about federal law or the Constitution, so I agree they will likely try yet another meritless impeachment if they regain power. They just manufacture something like they’ve done before. It’s not like we could ever expect them to do anything legal and constructive. That’s crazy talk.

[Bob from Ohio]

"None of the commercial vessels are on the list of sanctioned tankers the United States is threatening to target."

So Maduro is just pretending to defy Trump.

Good thing, his navy has one whole frigate. The sailors would not like to actually sortie against the US.

Surface ships without air cover are just targets.

[darkknight9]

On my mind? How much I missed the blues, especially the older stuff. It was buried in my music folders. Willie Dixon, Howlin' Wolf, Muddy, Bo Diddley, Little Milton, Koko Taylor, Robert Johnson...

What I want to know is am I missing any must listens? There's got to be some fellow blues fans out there.

[Kazinski]

Son House, Blind Willie Johnson, and Blind Willie McTell are some of the old ones. And Sonny Boy Williamson 2, too.

And for the Jazz side of very early Blues check out 'Louis Armstrong plays WC Handy', who wrote Memphis Blues (1909), St Louis Blues(1912). Handy was still alive in 1954 and was recorded reminiscing about the very early days of the Blues on the 1954 recording. It was Bessie Smith and Armstrong that made St Louis Blues a hit in 1925.

[Riva]

And Blind Barney Shortbread. What a player. I seen him play with my own eyes. Man was a genius. What about this guy? Hot Weewee Jefferson. The cystitis kid. Man when he was playing, those pipes was on fire.

[darkknight9]

Ow! My hats on fire! Why didn't you tell me?
I thought it was part of your look...

[Stella Link's Ghost]

Ok, the blues.

Of the old blues guys, among the most proficient guitar players would be Lonnie Johnson. Any of his tunes is pretty much easily recognizable by the sound of his guitar and the signature guitar licks, probably in some version of G tuning. Particularly nice are the duets with Eddie Lang who is sometimes called the father of jazz guitar. Lang's playing in those recordings is typically relatively simple as his would be a supporting role. Johnson also played guitar behind other blues vocalists including Texas Alexander. Johnson's guitar in those recordings is quite easy to identify.

Here's an example of a Johnson Lang duet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqcTd2iuGvo
Johnson doing the high part on, probably, a nine string guitar and Lang on the rhythm.

Another guy to listen to is Pete Franklin, a prolifically recorded Indianapolis/Chicago acoustic blues player sometimes likened to Scrapper Blackwell (also worth a listen). Lots of Franklin's tunes on youtube including, I believe, all from his 1963 Prestige album "Guitar Pete's Blues"

On that album is Franklin's cover of Doc Clayton's "I Got to Find My Baby." Lots of versions of this song out there with Franklin's, in my opinion, being the best. Really cool guitar work in a Blackwell style with a guitar probably tuned a whole tone low.

Here's a cover of Franklin's cover. Interesting to see Franklin's version played very faithfully and the Franklin vocal imitation is pretty good too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7RfTQxIn2U

Robert Johnson, One of my favorite RJ tunes would be Terraplane Blues and of my favorite versions of that would be by John Hammond Jr on his "Can't Beat the Kid" album. Another is a very cool duet with slide guitar genius Roy Rogers and John Lee Hooker. Also Scott Ainslee and Aurora (Rory) Block have good covers. All this is available on youtube.

Other things:
Lightnin' Hopkins "Automobile Blues" We sometimes refer to Hopkins as "The King of the Poorly Tuned Guitar." He definitely played in a tuning optional zone.

Memphis Minnie McCoy's "Me and My Chauffeur Blues" Check out Maria Muldaur's version with Tuba Skinny.

A somewhat famous Memphis Minnie tune is "When the Levee Breaks" Listen to the original and also an ass kicking version by the Irish prodigy Muireann Bradley.

British blues player Jo Ann Kelly was also pretty darned good. Her Blue Goose album with the support of players like John Fahey and Woodie Mann is very nice.

Also on Blue Goose was John Miller's "First Degree Blues."

Led Zeppelin's ripoff of Memphis Minnie's "When the Levee Breaks" is far from the only example of this sort of thing. The band Canned Heat ripped off Henry Thomas's "Bull Doze Blues" ("Up the Country") and K.C. Douglas's "Mercury Blues" Originals of both are available on youtube.

[Ska]

I've been listening to a lot of rockabilly and a little surf, but yeah, good reminder that I should throw on a good blues playlist.

[Ridgeway]

If you have not listened to Bessie Smith, do yourself a favor and do so. The songs are great and often hilariously dirty.

Plenty available for free on youtube.

[Krychek_2]

Can someone please let Trump know that Biden has not been president for going on a year, and blaming him for Trump's own failures at this point is (a) tedious and (b) not what actual leaders do?

[David Nieporent]

The list of things Trump does that are not what actual leaders do is longer than the proverbial CVS receipt.

[Commenter_XY]

This was hilarious, David....on par with using the seven deadly sins as a to-do list. I am going to shameless use this one.

[NvEric]

Ditto on hilarious.
What actual leaders do is what they do.
Leaders are not what we actually want in a functional Republic.
Leaders are the antithesis of sane governance.
Leaders are what one gets from failure of our system.

[John 4]

“What actual leaders do is what they do.”

I see the brain trust is up and at it early today.

[Kazinski]

I don't know why, Biden spent 4 years blaming Trump for everything.

Biden even tried to blame Trump for inflation, even though it was 1.4% when he took office.
https://wpde.com/news/nation-world/biden-blames-inflation-on-trump-administration-it-was-already-there-when-i-got-here

I even got a lot of pushback giving Trump.credit for the FY25 budget being lower than FY24, because the budget year started in Octotober 2024, even though the 4 Biden months were way over FY24 spending and the 8 Trump months were substantially under.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

The inflation wasn’t a big deal…but the inflation was mostly Trump’s fault because of the massive PPP fraud that happened under Trump and the several months of high energy prices in 2022 were because Trump failed to get the Philly refinery to rebuild after it burned and then Republicans threw a tantrum and refused to get a safe and effective which negatively impacted supply chains through 2021. We’ve had a bout of insidious inflation from 2005-2008 and it imploded the economy…the Biden economy was great although the business cycle was clearly nearing the end in 2024 as record apartment units and hotel rooms were delivered and they needed to be occupied before more were built.

[Krychek_2]

I shall rephrase. Can someone please let Kazinski know that Biden has not been president for going on a year, so what he may or may not have spent four years doing no longer matters. Also, something else real leaders don't do is to say that behaving badly is acceptable because their predecessors did it.

[A Japanese Student]

Trial has concluded in the Shinzo Abe assassination case. Prosecutors demanded life in prison; the defense sought 20 years in prison. (This is technically a capital case, but it never appeared death penalty was an option.) If life with parole is ruled out, then the sentence would be imprisonment, up to 30 years.

Note, he isn't convicted yet. Japanese criminal trials do conviction and sentencing together. He has admitted to almost all of the charges (with one charge being contested on statutory grounds). The judges and juries will reach their conclusion next month, on January 21.

I'm surprised the defense accepted 20 years. That's very long for a murder case (in Japan). Of course, the judges (and jury members) are free to impose any sentence, whether it's 5 years, 10 years, 30 years, or life.

[Brett Bellmore]

Isn't the conviction rate in Japan something absurd, nearly 100%, so that as a practical matter the trial is just about the sentencing? Though I have read that they treat you quite humanely in jail... once you sign the confession.

[A Japanese Student]

Yes but no.

Conviction rates are above 99%, yes, partly because that number includes guilty plea. (They can't skip trial even if the defendant pleads guilty because conviction must be based on evidence.) Prosecutors also have wide latitude in whether to bring charges. Practically speaking it is them, not the judges, that require proof beyond a reasonable doubt. Maybe judges are used to that.

[Bob from Ohio]

Amazing. A political murder of a once and possible future PM gets a whole 20 years.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

When 23-year-old Greta Rideout filed rape charges against her husband, John, in 1978, he became the first American man to be tried for the rape of his wife. The year before, their home state of Oregon had criminalized spousal rape, and the Rideout trial became a test case of the law. In her excellent new book, Without Consent: A Landmark Trial and the Decades-Long Struggle to Make Spousal Rape a Crime, Sarah Weinman excavates the story of the Rideouts, which has been almost entirely forgotten despite the sensational national news coverage it received at the time. By telling the story of both Greta and John Rideout, Weinman shines a light on the long and alarmingly recent fight to criminalize spousal rape. Since the 1970s, Weinman shows, laws concerning spousal rape and popular understanding of the crime have changed dramatically.

https://www.jezebel.com/the-complicated-frustrating-history-of-the-first-spousal-rape-trial

It is a good book. Those who want to learn about the legal issues may wish to supplement their knowledge. The book does cover that, but it is more about the stories of the people involved, including those in later rape trials.

A t.v. movie portraying the historical trial starred a young Linda Hamilton and Mickey Rourke, which quite pleased John Rideout, who continued to talk about it long afterwards.

[darkknight9]

Well, Mr Rideout still has 22 years to think about any and everything he's done.

He *really seemed like a jerk.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

Decades after the 1970s historical case, Rideout was found guilty of rape and sexual abuse of two other women.

One case had to be re-tried because the jury was split 11-1, and the Supreme Court later determined a unanimous jury was necessary. The jury again found him guilty, setting up a long prison sentence.

The book cites another case where a jury found someone not guilty of marital rape (the facts appeared rather blatantly, including a videotape) & the person later murdered another woman.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

rather blatantly to show his guilt

[Dr. Ed 2]

I have trouble with the concept of spousal rape.

The "I do" used to have meaning. Now, it doesn't....

[Estragon]

Predictably vile.

[Commenter_XY]

Did Iran assassinate Professor Nuno F.G. Loureiro on US soil?

Suppose Iran did. What is the appropriate US response?

Note, nuking Iran is not an option here. 😉

[Frank Drackman]

Nuking Ear-ron is always an option.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Much more effective would be to not let them attend the UN -- declare them an outlaw state and don't let their delegation into the country.

[Frank Drackman]

I'd rather just tear the whole UN down (On an Afternoon when they're not meeting, like they did with the East Wing), Officially kicking them out's probably not possible as it only takes one Security Council Member to Veto, but let them meet in a Motel 6 in Passaic for a few Weeks and they'll "Self-Deport"

Frank

[Mr. Bumble]

Great idea, them Madmani can turn it into low income housing.

[Dr. Ed 2]

It might be a problem with countries that we have diplomatic relations with -- we do NOT with Iran ever since they seized our embassy in violation of International Law -- but we don't have to let ANY of them into the USA.

[David Nieporent]

In fact, we do have to.

[not guilty]

Axios reports:

The Pentagon said Monday it is "escalating" a "preliminary review" into "serious allegations of misconduct" leveled against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a retired naval officer, after he clashed with President Trump.

The big picture: A Pentagon spokesperson said in an emailed statement that Kelly now faces "an official Command Investigation" following his appearance in a video with five other Democratic lawmakers last month reminding military and service members they could disobey unlawful orders.

https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/trump-review-mark-kelly-official-command-investigation-dod

Of course, President Trump last month kvetched that Senator Kelly and the other Democratic lawmakers appearing in the video “should be arrested and put on trial,” accusing them of “seditious behavior” that, he said, could be “punishable by death.”
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115582417825161974 Neither the Doofus-in-chief not any MAGAt, however, has identified any law that was broken by publication of the video.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Yank his military pension and be don with it.

[Frank Drackman]

Dr. Ed, like Columbus, you just discovered something but didn't know it.
I know "be DON with it", was a Typo, but it's actually a great new phrase.
"be DON with it" (adj phrase, the state of behaving in a manner similar to the 45th/47th POTUS, Donald J. Trump)
"OK, maybe I exaggerate a bit, I'm just "Being Don with it"

Frank

[bernard11]

be don with it

Freudian slip?

[Frank Drackman]

It's "Dr Ed's Razor" attributing to Creativity what is merely Stupidity.

[Riva]

We'll see what the charges are. For your reference, 10 U.S.C. § 934:
Though not specifically mentioned in this chapter, all disorders and neglects to the prejudice of good order and discipline in the armed forces, all conduct of a nature to bring discredit upon the armed forces, and crimes and offenses not capital, of which persons subject to this chapter may be guilty, shall be taken cognizance of by a general, special, or summary court-martial, according to the nature and degree of the offense, and shall be punished at the discretion of that court. As used in the preceding sentence, the term "crimes and offenses not capital" includes any conduct engaged in outside the United States, as defined in section 5 of title 18, that would constitute a crime or offense not capital if the conduct had been engaged in within the special maritime and territorial jurisdiction of the United States, as defined in section 7 of title 18.

[Kazinski]

Ford took a 20 billion dollar charge on its EV investments, due to "plummeting demand". But of course there never was any real demand its just the government decided a few months ago it wouldn't force Americans to buy EVs, so without being forced to buy them almost nobody will.

"Ford will take a $19.5bn (£14.5bn) hit as it tore up plans to invest significant sums into electric cars.

The US car giant cut back electric vehicle (EV) production, including the production of large battery-powered pickup trucks, because of a slump in demand from drivers.

Ford said “lower than expected” uptake of EVs had resulted in billions in losses.

Instead, the Detroit carmaker will plough more into building conventional trucks and vans and cheaper EVs, as well as launching a new battery energy storage business.

The $19.5bn writedown, announced to Wall Street on Monday, is one of the largest financial hits suffered by a carmaker to date as bets on EVs turn sour in the face of plummeting demand."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/16/ford-takes-195bn-ev-hit-after-demand-slump/?recomm_id=15389c16-e606-4a46-8f58-5c7383b44b4a

In related news, the EU has scrapped its 2035 100% EV mandate too, they still have quotas but the closer it gets to the date the quotas kick in they will change them. And without the US EV mandate European carmakers that want to sell cars here will have to keep building gas powered cars anyway.

[darkknight9]

I read this the other day. That they are going to pivot back to more fuel efficient engines and hybrids isn't shocking. I believe full on ev's still need a few years of getting more folks familiar with them. And they need to be cheaper. As us oldies die off and they build more charging stations they might? make a come back.

That being said, I'm kinda sad to see them cancel the Lightning. I got the chance to drive the Lightnings they made in the 90's. They were a blast! I'm glad I didn't end up with one though because at the time, 19 year old me would have gotten into no end of trouble, assuming I had lived through owning it. 🙂

[Stephen Lathrop]

Kazinski — All your advocacy can hope to accomplish is to cede the entire global market for EVs to China. It was only a few years ago when anti-environmentalists were lying about China. They said China's fossil fuel abuses would undermine climate amelioration programs by other nations, so what was the point.

At that time, China was already furiously laying the groundwork to profit industrially from climate amelioration—and relying on contracts with US-based environmental consultants to do it. We would be gullible indeed to step up for second helping of nationally self-destructive advocacy from you.

Why are you doing this? Do you even know?

[Brett Bellmore]

Profiting coming and going: They promoted laws that handicapped Western industry, then profited from selling to us the things that they'd covertly encouraged us to cease being able to manufacture.

Polluting Chinese manufacture using slave labor is the foundation of the 'renewable energy' industry.

[Sarcastr0]

Electric Vehicles are a Chinese plot against America!

Another conspiracy figured out by Brett.

[DDHarriman]

Haha yah countries don't engage in geopolitical actions that benefit themselves--- hahaha its so ridiculous to even think China would dare engage in geopolitics to further Chinese goals!!!

[Brett Bellmore]

You have this weird idea that you can refute things just by restating them a little differently, rather than by presenting evidence.

I mean, you ARE aware that a lot of Chinese industry feeding the 'renewables' ecosystem is highly polluting and dependent on slave and child labor, right? For instance:

Chinese rare earth minerals produced through forced labor: Rights group

[Dr. Ed 2]

And with damage to Mother Earth....

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Do Republicans still care about Uyghurs?? You should volunteer to host them so they can seek asylum in America!! All we need is more Muzzies!! 😉

[Sarcastr0]

Shiny new thesis you got here.

I’m aware none of out electronics are free of Chinese human rights abuses.

[Mr. Bumble]

"I’m aware ..."
Don't think your comments have ever passed the Turing test.

[Dr. Ed 2]

And China is both a bigger economic mess and closer to a revolution than most people know. The only reason why the CCP is still in charge is that it is a police state beyond the imagination of Orwell, one that makes the DDR look like a bastion of civil liberties by comparison.

And as to the economy, it's not just that they have these massive un-finished apartment complexes in remote areas where no one wants to live, but that they are so shoddily built as well. For example, a major health issue in China is leaking sewer lines -- inside buildings. Think about that one for a minute...

But the biggest problem in China is the corruption -- it is so pervasive that it makes it impossible to do anything because EVERYONE has to be bribed. It isn't just a bagman but you have to chase down every petty bagman and the logistics of that is a problem.

[Malika la Maize]

“They promoted laws that handicapped Western industry”?

[Brett Bellmore]

How China Co-opted the Green Movement

A major part of the Green movement's funding came from China.

[Sarcastr0]

Today in Brett cites some random partisan blog for something it doesn't actually say.

[David Nieporent]

That article does not say that a major part of the Green movement's funding came from China. It says that a very very minor part of the Green movement's funding came from one particular non-profit with associations with China.

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

90% of miles will be in EVs by 2035…and the EREV makes much more sense than the EV for a truck. The Bourbon Street terrorist attack was made possible by a Ford F-150 EV because it’s a truck that performs like a 2006 Lamborghini and the cops couldn’t fathom a truck was capable of what it did and it did it silently…but the juice runs out too quickly when hauling stuff and hauling a trailer which the EREV not only solves but increases towing capacity.

[Joe_dallas]

Kaz - that is correct. Worth noting is that subsidies, and other incentives for the consumer are in reality designed to benefit the seller/producer.

Student loans, student tuition credits are all designed to funnel money to the education complex, same with EV tax credits, same with health care subsidies.

[Dr. Ed 2]

The education industry is a fraud and should be shut down.

[Stella Link's Ghost]

Yes, make America illiterate again.

[Joe_dallas]

The massive increase in tuition costs have accomplished that goal.

[Stella Link's Ghost]

You're lying again, Joe.

[Joe_dallas]

Lots of information packed in that short statement. Its not my responsibility to educate you on a topic you should already be familiar with.

[Magister]

Literacy is taught in public schools, which do not charge tuition, so it's unclear how massive increases in tuition could have caused illiteracy.

[Joe_dallas]

My comment on tuition inadvertently omitted the massive increases in per student spending through out the education complex. Mississippi reinstituted phonics back into the curriculum to reverse the trend occurring across the country, particularly prevalent in blue states. My original comment on why incentives such as subsidies, student loans and other forms of funding are designed to benefit the seller, not the consumer remains valid. The increases in spending per student (over the rate of inflation), is just another example, in this case benefiting the education complex, not the students.

[Kazinski]

And the clear evidence for that is the growth of Administrators relative to students and faculty.

"Between 1976 and 2018, full-time administrators and other professionals employed by those institutions increased by 164% and 452%, respectively. Meanwhile, the number of full-time faculty employed at colleges and universities in the U.S. increased by only 92%, marginally outpacing student enrollment which grew by 78%."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulweinstein/2023/08/28/administrative-bloat-at-us-colleges-is-skyrocketing/

Public school systems have seen similar administrative bloat, the money isn't going to the classrooms.

[Joe_dallas]

Kazinski 56 minutes ago
"And the clear evidence for that is the growth of Administrators relative to students and faculty."

At the same time, academic performance has dropped,

https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/nation/achievement/?grade=12

Back to responding to the original subject - Subsidies and other incentives are designed to benefit the seller, not the consumer. Kaz's post was on EV's, The same applies to the education complex who benefits from the additional spending, not the students.

[Magister]

It's a reach to blame too many college and university administrators for poor academic performance at the 12th grade level.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Literacy is Elementary School -- one should be "literate" by the end of 5th Grade...

[jb]

"But of course there never was any real demand its just the government decided a few months ago it wouldn't force Americans to buy EVs, so without being forced to buy them almost nobody will."

Please explain the mechanism by which you think the government was going to force Americans to buy EVs.

[Joe_dallas]

cafe standards

[jb]

First, CAFE standards affect what cars auto manufacturers produce, not what people buy.

Second, none of the standards required the production of even a single electric vehicle.

[Joe_dallas]

Then you dont understand the CAFE standard modifications made during the biden administration.

[jb]

Cool. Why don't you explain it to the class then?

[Joe_dallas]

Brett explained it quite well
I expect you to some level of basic knowledge.

[jb]

Nothing Brett wrote contradicts my points above in any way, so it seems like you're the one that doesn't understand the CAFE standard modifications if there's not anything more to them than that.

I guess if we're including hybrids in the "EV" category, then Brett has a point that you probably can't get to the Biden CAFE standards without some sort of electric engine involved. But (1) manufacturers definitely didn't need full-on EVs to get to the standards, unless they also wanted to sell some really inefficient cars, (2) consumers still don't have to buy anything they don't want to, and (3) hybrids seem pretty popular outside of any government mandates--in fact Ford said that they're shifting from pure EVs to more hybrids because that's where the demand is.

[Brett Bellmore]

"I guess if we're including hybrids in the "EV" category, then Brett has a point that you probably can't get to the Biden CAFE standards without some sort of electric engine involved."

Even hybrids have trouble reaching 50mpg; Smaller hybrid sedans can do it, just barely, nothing larger. For instance, a Kia Sportage hybrid? 44mgp highway.

So they really could not meet Biden's mandate without selling a high percentage of straight electric cars.

[Brett Bellmore]

As Joe says, CAFE standards. The auto companies were mandated by them to get their sales averaged mileage to a specific standard which is basically unachievable for ICE vehicles. About 50MPG.

So in order to sell the ICE vehicles people actually wanted, they had to sell a certain number of largely unwanted EVs to bring the overall mileage numbers into compliance. Which they could only do by subsidizing the EVs and charging the ICE purchasers enough to pay for their vehicles AND the EV subsidy, because the EVs would not sell in the necessary numbers if not subsidized.

Trump recently lowered the mileage target to something actually achievable, and required that the actual ICE vehicles meet it, not in combination with EVs. So no more regulatory requirement to sell unwanted EVs.

[jb]

I'm still confused about consumers being forced to do something. You're saying there's less demand because EVs are no longer being subsidized. Kaz says there's less demand because people weren't being forced to buy the EVs. Those two statements are not the same at all.

And of course the CAFE standard changes are just proposed at this point, so kind of hard to understand how they would have already caused consumer demand to decrease even if everything you say is correct.

[Mr. Bumble]

"Cool. Why don't you explain it to the class then?"
Brett did and you're still confused.

[jb]

Brett did provide a much more helpful elaboration on how CAFE standards work (which I had not seen when I responded to Joe), but in any case not how they force anyone to buy anything. So yeah, I'm still confused about that part.

[Stella Link's Ghost]

Brett doesn't understand the difference bewtween behavior that is encouraged and behavior that is compelled.

[Joe_dallas]

Both Stella and JB prefer to remain illiterate on the subject. Spend some time getting up to speed on micro economics.

[jb]

In fairness, I think it's Kaz that doesn't understand but Brett didn't really need to run interference for him on an obviously fictional claim.

[Joe_dallas]

Brett, Kaz and I gave you reasonable explanation.

The reason you think Bretts explanation is fictional is due to a lack of understanding economics.

[Brett Bellmore]

Nobody was forced to "buy" an EV. It was a mandate to sell, not a mandate to buy.

But there are no sales without purchases, you do understand that I hope.

The auto companies were forced to "sell" a certain number of EVs, which required them to somehow persuade people to "buy" EVs. They did this by subsidizing EV prices and jacking up ICE prices to underwrite the subsidy.

[jb]

Sure, and if Kaz had said that there's no demand for full price EVs without subsidies*, he'd be directionally correct at least. But instead, he's chosen to lie and claim that somehow they're being "forced" to buy the EVs. I guess if by "forced" he means they got such a good deal they would be dumb to turn it down? By that logic, Costco keeps forcing people to buy hot dogs through their nefarious pricing strategy. Down with hot dog coercion!

* There's obviously some demand. Lots of people have bought Teslas without subsidies, and they aren't making EVs to offset their IC fleet.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Before Trump, I heard stories of lots being full of battery powered electric Commercial trucks that no one wanted.

[jb]

The Cybertruck is indeed a monstrosity that very few people want. That's mostly just questionable product design by Tesla, though.

[Bob from Ohio]

I just walked by a cybertruck today for the first time, its F-250 sized!

[Davedave]

"a specific standard which is basically unachievable for ICE vehicles. About 50MPG."

This is completely, and easily, achievable. It might not be with the kinds of ludicrous tanks the deranged American public wants to buy, but that's a different issue.

[Brett Bellmore]

As I said above, smaller hybrid cars can hit 50mpg, nothing larger can. Even those ludicrous "Smart cars" that are two seater pregnant roller skates can't manage it.

[bernard11]

The US car giant cut back electric vehicle (EV) production, including the production of large battery-powered pickup trucks,

Someone should have told Ford that the intersection of the set of buyers of large pickups and the set of buyers of EV's is small .

[Dr. Ed 2]

The Brown Clown Show continues -- even if the shooting wasn't left-wing terrorism, the situation has devolved to the point where the moral corruption of the Ivy League is becoming apparent to all.

Apparently Brown has been disabling cameras so as to prevent ICE from using them to find illegal aliens.

They scrub a member of Team Hamas from the internet and presume that no one will notice -- and then won't give an answer when they are asked why they did it.

Let's get real folks -- if the shooter had shouted "White Power" before opening fire, don't you think we'd know about it by now? Likewise, does anyone honestly think that they'd be protecting Jan 6thers the way that they are protecting Team Hamas?

And while Brown may not conclusively know who the shooter is, it's starting to look like they have a pretty good idea (fear) as to who it might be. Well how far down that road can one go before one becomes an accessory after the fact?

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

Hillary Clinton is much more pro-Israel than Tucker Carlson…but you would vote for Tucker over Hillary. Republicans don’t care about Israel they only cared because it happened when Biden was president and they were pushing a false narrative that Biden was somehow responsible for Netanyahu and Shin Bet failing to uncover the plot and stop it. Even the hurricane in Asheville was Biden’s fault according to Republicans! 😉

[Dr. Ed 2]

Refusing to assist people with Trump signs?

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

The idiots with guns believed right wing conspiracy theories…just like the people that died for refusing the safe and effective vaccines and instead took ivermectin!! FEMA doesn’t have to help people that are dangerous. Fuck those hillbillies in Western NC and rednecks in Floriduh!!

[Malika la Maize]

In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, former President Donald Trump has blasted the Biden administration for its handling of the disaster — going so far as to accuse Democratic leaders of ignoring the needs of Republican storm victims.

But a review of Trump’s record by POLITICO’s E&E News and interviews with two former Trump White House officials show that the former president was flagrantly partisan at times in response to disasters and on at least three occasions hesitated to give disaster aid to areas he considered politically hostile or ordered special treatment for pro-Trump states.

https://www.eenews.net/articles/helene-isnt-the-first-time-trump-inserted-politics-into-a-natural-disaster/

[Dr. Ed 2]

Ash stake....

[Magister]

Ash stake is the new snowplow?

[CountmontyC]

To borrow a favorite phrase/word that the left loves to use.

WHATABOUTISM!!!!!!!

[Malika la Maize]

It’s one thing if some rando field agent is playing politics with aid, another when it’s POTUS.

[Brett Bellmore]

Yeah, the problem is that it wasn't just some rando field agent during the Biden administration. They tried making one rando field agent the fall guy for what actually was a widespread practice.

[David Nieporent]

As always, Brett doesn't read past headlines. The report actually says exactly the opposite.

[Brett Bellmore]

As usual you just casually and confidently contradict the sources. Quoting just past said headline:

"An internal investigation by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) found that throughout the Biden Administration, FEMA employees systematically refused to visit the houses of disaster survivors that displayed signs and flags they disagreed with, including those with campaign signs supporting President Trump—textbook political discrimination against Americans in crisis."

[Sam Bankman-Fried]

FEMA policy allows them to avoid dangerous situations. Trump supporters believe all kinds of crazy conspiracy theories and they are armed.

[David Nieporent]

Now read the actual report. It does not show any such thing. It shows no "systematically" doing anything, and in a desperate attempt to make the minuscule numbers they have seem more impressive, they lumped refusing to visit people's houses with making political notes in their phone app about those people.

[Sarcastr0]

I did a quick readthrough, and unsurprisingly Brett got fooled again.

The report is about the collection of information that they claim included political affiliation. They make a lot of an internal tool that allows such collection but don't actually provide screenshots of the tool, which is frustrating and sucpicious.

But more importantly, while they assert in their conclusion that houses were skipped due to political affiliation the report body doesn't go into any evidence for that.

It's weird to have a conclusion that doesn't follow from the body of the report, unless you realize the target is skimming suckers who want to believe.

[Brett Bellmore]

David, you said "read past the headline", but you'd have seen that the quick summary just under the headline said just what I was saying, if YOU had read past the headline.

In Sarcastr0's terms, "No goalpost moving".

By systematic, they don't mean "universal", they mean it wasn't isolated or ad hoc.

[David Nieporent]

By systematic, they don't mean "universal", they mean it wasn't isolated or ad hoc.

I know what the word systemic means. But all they showed was that it was isolated and ad hoc.

[David Nieporent]

Apparently Brown has been disabling cameras so as to prevent ICE from using them to find illegal aliens.

"Apparently!" Apparently Dr. Ed doesn't care whether there are any facts to support anything he says.

Let's get real folks -- if the shooter had shouted "White Power" before opening fire, don't you think we'd know about it by now?

Do these MAGA loons actually think Brown somehow has a magic power to keep students from tweeting, posting TikTok videos, or talking to the media?

[Malika la Maize]

The same people that manufactured the Sandy Hook shooting could also surely do that!

[Dr. Ed 2]

There are a lot of questions that ought to have been asked about the Newtown shooting, starting with why the perp had such an animosity toward the psychologist of a school he no longer attended.

I think she created that monster.

[jb]

LOL, I didn't think Dr. Ed would actually get baited into going full Poe's Law so easily.

[Estragon]

Yes I believe his theory of the Idaho undergrad murders was similar: the real culprit was the female professor who convinced the victims to become lesbians.

The guy is in need of some serious help. He won’t get it.

[Magister]

The obstacle is that he won't seek the help he needs.

[David Nieporent]

His pathology extends to a virulent hatred of all mental health professionals (though there are good and obvious reasons why in his case).

[Dr. Ed 2]

If I recall correctly, I wasn't that far from wrong -- Madison Mogen was murdered in the same bed as one of the other girls (Kaylee Goncalves), and there was speculation that the perp was targeting Madison Mogen. I suggested that the perp might have been her ex-boyfriend, and this is the same motive as OJ Simpson had.

Someone else was mentioning professors.

[Estragon]

“She may be half right — this may be a lesbian love triangle… There is a lot of stuff that we don’t understand, and I’ve seen professors convince female undergrads — in healthy relationships with boyfriends they loved — that they actually were lesbians and their boyfriends actually rapists.”

[Estragon]

“Dr” Ed:

Senile, a blatant liar, or someone “living in alternate dimensions of reality” (to borrow a phrase)?

I report, you decide!

[Dr. Ed 2]

Newtown was 13 years ago and I am not gong to bogther to re-read everything but memory is that Principal and Psychologist went (together) to confront perp, Principal was allowed to escape -- Psych was not. Psychologist was involved with Perp even though he was no longer a student at that school.

Crazy people are actually quite predictable once you get beyond the fact that they are living in alternate dimensions of reality.

[Estragon]

“quite predictable”

Yeah, who could have predicted your comments on marital rape, above?

[David Nieporent]

Of course you wouldn't bother to read anything (let's not pretend that you've ever read it, so you can't "re-read" it). If you did, maybe you'd be embarrassed enough not to post lies. The principal and psychologist were both killed, and the psychologist was not "involved with" Lanza.

[Dr. Ed 2]

"Brown somehow has a magic power to keep students from tweeting, posting TikTok videos, or talking to the media?"

Yes.

In addition to the secret star chamber proceedings of their Behavior Intervention Teams, private colleges can and do expel students for putting things onto the internet that they don't like.

[Malika la Maize]

None of those students are afraid that Brown would do anything to them fir anything they say in this spotlight, you’re just upset there’s been no evidence yet for the conspiracy theory you deeply need to be true for some sad reason.

[Dr. Ed 2]

The reason why you don't have clown shows like they currently are in Providence is that people legitimately start to speculate as to conspiracies.

That said, college students today self-censor and there is no shortage of literature to this effect.

[Malika la Maize]

Again, not a one of them is failing to talk to the press because of a fear of that in this spotlight.

[Dr. Ed 2]

And you call yourself a "psychologist"?

[David Nieporent]

There is of course no such thing, and no they don't.

[Malika la Maize]

Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, has withdrawn his private equity firm from a $500 million luxury hotel project in Serbia hours after four senior government officials were charged with bribery by prosecutors.

The development had been intended to create the first Trump International Hotelin Europe on a site in Belgrade where the remains of the old Yugoslav Ministry of Defense headquarters still stand.

But, on Monday, Serbia’s Public Prosecutor’s Office for Organized Crime charged Culture Minister Nikola Selakovic and three others with abuse of office and falsifying documents relating to the undertaking.

https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/jared-kushner-serbia-trump-hotel-b2885667.html

[ReaderY]

President powers

I have a question for unitary executive theory people.

Article II of the constitution enumerates a small number of specific powers, which include the pardon power, the commander-in-chief power, and the power to receive ambassadors. But these powers include another which hasn’t received much attention:

“…he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, on any Subject related to the Duties of their respective Offices…”

My question is, what is this provision doing in the constitution? Under the unitary executive theory, the power to ask subordinates what they’re up to ought to be so obviously within the powers of the President that it needn’t be said. So why is it said? What purpose does it serve? Why is it there? Is it anything other than pure surplussage?

This is my challenge to you. What answer do you have?

My view is that no clause of the constitution is surplusage. So if a theory renders a provision of the constitution pure surplussage, it can’t be an acceptable theory because it is inconsistent with the text. The text provides a method of testing theories. If a theory renders text inexplicable or surplussage, the theory and not the text has to go.

Accepting the text leads to a Presidency not unlike British monarchs of the 19th century. Queen Victoria stood in between the more absolute monarchs of earlier years and the almost purely ceremonial role of current monarchs. She had real power over pardons, ambassadors, and the military. She was “vested” with full executive power - she had a robing ceremony at her coronation* - but notwithstanding her vestments, she was pretty much a figurehead when it came to domestic affairs, as the government made the real decisions. But she could ask government officials to tell her what they were up to.

The enumerated powers that the Constitution describes look remarkably like the powers of 19th Century British monarchs. The President as envisioned by the text had real power. But in many respects he merely presided over the executive department, rather than having absolute control over it.

*Note: until well into the 19th century, a “vest” referred to a ceremonial robe of office like the ones the monarch and certain nobles and officers still wear at coronations. Investiture meant being presented with vestments. It only became another name for a waistcoat long after the Constitution was written.

[loki13]

The Venn Diagram of people here who mock "penumbras and emanations" and the people here who are "Yay, Unitary Executive!!! Trump FTW!!!" ....

...is a single circle.

[gVOR08]

True. But Roberts and his "Originalist" accomplices don't seem to worry much about what the Constitution says if it doesn't suit their desired outcomes.

[Malika la Maize]

The White House has installed plaques along President Donald Trump’s “Presidential Walk of Fame,” offering descriptions of his predecessors, often written in the style of his social media posts — including insults, baseless claims and random capitalization.

A plaque at the front of the exhibit, which lines the walkway outside the West Wing of the White House, says it was “conceived, built, and dedicated” by Trump “as a tribute to past Presidents, good, bad and somewhere in the middle, who served our Country, and gave up so much in so doing.”
Trump’s own plaque touts his 2024 victory, saying he overcame the “unprecedented Weaponization of Law Enforcement against him, as well as two assassination attempts.” And it declares that Trump, who’s been in office for 11 months, has “delivered” on his Inauguration Day promise to usher in the “Golden Age of America,” pointing to his claims of wars ended, borders secured and alleged gang members deported.

The plaque for former President Joe Biden, who is represented by a photo of an autopen, leans on familiar Trump grievances. “Sleepy Joe Biden was, by far, the worst President in American History. Taking office as a result of the most corrupt Election ever seen in the United States, Biden oversaw a series of unprecedented disasters that brought our Nation to the brink of destruction,” part of the plaque reads. “But despite it all, President Trump would get Re-Elected in a Landslide, and SAVE AMERICA!”

Other presidents receive similarly politicized descriptions, such as former President Barack Obama.

“Barack Hussein Obama was the first Black President, a community organizer, one term Senator from Illinois, and one of the most divisive political figures in American History,” the plaque reads. It dings him for passing what Trump calls “the highly ineffective ‘Unaffordable’ Care Act” and signing “the one-sided Paris Climate Accords.”

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/17/politics/presidential-walk-of-fame-plaques-trump

[Frank Drackman]

You can't handle the Truth!!!!!!!

[Malika la Maize]

“often written in the style of his social media posts — including insults, baseless claims and random capitalization.”

The current President of the United States has the level of decency and decorum as the Frank Drackman character performed here.

[Frank Drackman]

More decent than the Hilary Rodman 2008 Cam-pain who released a photo of Barry Hussein in his "Native African Garb" Remember how she tried to steal the Delegates in Michigan? How about AlGore who before he decided (everyone elses) Private Jets were bad, had HIS campaign do the original "Willie Horton Ad".
Yes, in the 1988 DemoKKKrat Primary, against Governor Michael Do-Cock-Us, worked really well.
Yeah, a bit back to the Grooveyard of Politics, I've got the Memory of an Elephant, and like FDR's dog "Fala" I do hold grudges...

Frank

[Malika la Maize]

Apart from your pathetic attempt to emulate Dear Leader’s writing style, your inability to distinguish between actions during a campaign (from decades ago) and decorating the White House in a whataboutism attempt is even more so pathetic.

[Frank Drackman]

Sorry if you don't recognize great Literature in the making, it's called "Spontaneous Prose" like Kerouac, Burroughs, Ginsberg did, if I dabbled in the Heroin, I'd be really good.
I'm the "Man in the Arena" (HT TR) sometimes a bit works, sometimes it doesn't, you think Seinfeld came up with that "What's the Deal with......" in an afternoon? Takes some Co-hones to perform, you ever play with any Balls that weren't in a Scrotum??
OK, that's a Rodney Dangerfield bit that he only used once or twice, because he was starting to get Hollywood parts, and didn't want to offend the Homos.
You're the Richard Cory (HT E. Robinson) character, letting an imaginary being live Rent-Free in your head,
oh, almost forgot, running a little short this month, might not have the rent, you think you can let me slide it on??? I'll have it for you tomorrow, next week, I don't know

Frank

[Malika la Maize]

“Sorry if you don't recognize great Literature in the making”

Deranged.

“it's called "Spontaneous Prose’”

Sure, which just happens to be how Trump writes and for which you’ve offered several other explanations (left-handed, ESL,, etc.,). Pathetic.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Willie Horton was in the Reader's Digest before that.

[Frank Drackman]

Only time I read Reader's Digest was in the Orthodontist Office, was supposed to have Braces for 3 years, but then our 63' VW threw a Rod, Dad got a new VW, I got an Overbite.
I just remember those "Humor in Uniform" vignettes were never very funny.

Frank

[Stella Link's Ghost]

"I got an Overbite."

And, I'm sure, Trump appreciates that.

[Frank Drackman]

Hey now! Now Everyone's friggin Don Rickles, but I'll get even, I'll rub your diaphragms in Poison Ivy, try to scratch THAT itch!

[hobie]

Newsom's revised Trump plaque 2029:

Impeached from office in 2026 by a unanimous vote for sex crimes related to Jeffrey Epstein. Currently serving a life sentence in Leavenworth, KS for murder and war crimes. Very small hands.

[Bob from Ohio]

"style of his social media posts "

If he didn't personally write them, some staffer has his style down 100%.

You know you do not have to chase the pointer.

[Sarcastr0]

::Trump shits his pants live on stage

::Bob: "wow what a masterful troll! He sure has you all chasing that laser pointer!"

[Bob from Ohio]

He put up some plaques. Just like what you said!

Laugh them off, some are pretty funny. No, its all more fuel to your TDS obsesson.

[Dr. Ed 2]

And a century from now, some scholar will be going through something in the Smithsonian and find them in some dusty box, and it will gives some insight into Donald Trump.

[hobie]

Ronald Regan's plaque ending:

"...was a fan of President Donald J. Trump long before President Trump’s Historic run for the White House. Likewise, President Trump was a fan of his!”

[Brett Bellmore]

Here is at least part of why Trump wanted his people to be able to look at the election records for Fulton County. And possibly a good part of why Raffensperger would give him access to the records from anywhere BUT Fulton County...

Fulton County: ‘We Don’t Dispute’ 315,000 Votes Lacking Poll Workers’ Signatures Were Counted In 2020

[Dr. Ed 2]

Circa 2060, historians will agree that Biden stole that election....

[SRG2]

Nope. Circa 2060 historians will agree that Trump tried to steal that election and failed, and will compare today's cultists with the Germans who supported Hitler.

[Bob from Ohio]

Hitler!

[Dr. Ed 2]

Hitler WON that 1933 election.

[SRG2]

But I was not comparing the 1933 election to 2020 nor Hitler to Trump. Duh. I was comparing the cultists who support Trump today with the Germans who supported Hitler then.

[Malika la Maize]

“Raffensperger would give him access to the records from anywhere BUT Fulton County”

Cite?

[Brett Bellmore]

The phone call, remember?

"But we didn't want Cobb County. We wanted Fulton County, and you wouldn't give it to us."

"Okay, so why did you do Cobb County? We didn't even request ... We requested Fulton County, not Cobb County. "

Over and over, Trump pounds on the fact that he wanted access to Fulton County records.

Raffensperger never did give him that access, and I think we now know why.

[Malika la Maize]

No, I don’t recall that being in there. Where in that did he say that?

[Brett Bellmore]

He didn't specifically say, "I'll give you anywhere but Fulton county", I'll give you that much. But the call does establish that Trump had been asking him specifically for Fulton county, and Raffensperger hadn't been giving him that particular county.

[Malika la Maize]

Yeah, that’s a very different claim.

[Brett Bellmore]

Hardly a VERY different claim.

Trump was consistently at the time asking for access to specifically Fulton county records. Had he gotten them, this scandal would have broke when it might have still mattered.

Fulton County wouldn't have been enough by itself to change the EC result, but it would have easily changed the Senate outcome, and exposing this at the time, rather than years later, would have made it very difficult to block inquiries into other states' records.

[loki13]

Or, if you understood the actual news instead of falling for what the story is trying to make you believe, there would be no difference at all.

[Malika la Maize]

It’s a very different claim. One feeds your usual conspiracy mindset (what were they trying to hide by offering access to every other locality but this one) the other lends itself to ones that are not (consistent voter record integrity across the state). It’s this type of careless mistake and extrapolation that feeds your, and most, conspiracy fail-theories.

[bernard11]

I think it's just about the right time for you to throw in your usual crawfish disclaimer that you think Biden won in 2020, but all the lies by Trumpists are the Democrats' fault.

Or have you realized it's not very convincing, sort of like, "I wasn't in the delivery room."

[loki13]

Let's see- for Brett, the theory can never be disproven.

First, you make up facts that aren't in the phone call.
Next, you omit what Trump was actually claiming IN THE PHONE CALL. Remember?

Trump: Then the other thing they said is in Fulton County and other areas, and this may or may not, because this just came up this morning, that they are burning their ballots, that they are shredding ballots and removing equipment. They're changing the equipment on the Dominion machines. And that's not legal. And they supposedly shredded, I think they said 3000 pounds of ballots.

Trump is just wildly talking about burning boxes, and changing equipment, and shredding 3000 pounds (I don't think he actually realizes how much that is ...) of ballots. In Fulton ... and other areas.

So why Fulton County? You know why. Everyone knows why.

With that said, I highly recommend two things- first, consider your news source, and the breathless way it is reported.

Second, think very critically for a second about the ACTUAL story. In other words, what is the actual story saying once you remove the hype. Not what you want to believe is true, not what the story is trying to push on you ... but what is the actual event? In other words, try and critically untangle the mix of use of untrue allegations that the story throws in with what the actual news is.

This is why you can never defeat conspiracy theories. To quote the X-Files, Brett Wants to Believe!

[hobie]

So the Republicans running the state of Georgia tried to steal the election from Trump? Is this what you're implying?

[Magister]

Given the number of Trump lies in that phone call, there's no reason to believe that Cobb County records were given. The only difference with Cobb County was that an audit of signature matching was conducted based on "credible allegations that the process was not followed in the June primaries".

[Sarcastr0]

Interesting timing, The Federalist!

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/us/trump-phone-call-georgia-election.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

‘Who’s Gonna Stop You?’ Listen to Trump Press Georgia Speaker Over 2020 Vote.

In a newly obtained recording of a phone call from late 2020, President Trump can be heard pressing the speaker of the Georgia House of Representatives to hold a special legislative session to overturn Mr. Trump’s election loss.
The New York Times obtained a recording of the call on Wednesday. It is part of a trove of investigative documents generated in the recently dismissed criminal election interference case that was brought against Mr. Trump and 18 of his allies by Fani T. Willis, the district attorney in Fulton County, Ga.

[loki13]

It's almost like Trump has a well-known past of associating with mobsters.

Weird, huh?

[hobie]

It was perfectly clear to Raffensperger at the time that Trump operatives were breaking into election systems across the country to try and steal the election. Who in their right mind would hand over proprietary election data to that lot?

[Kazinski]

This definitely needs further investigation, but it wouldn't have changed the election, Trump still.would have needed Arizona and Wisconsin to win.

[Stella Link's Ghost]

"Trump still.would have needed Arizona and Wisconsin to win."

It wouldn't have changed the result in Georgia, either. You don't get to throw out 300k legitimate votes because of election worker fuck ups. Where, in all this wankery, is there the allegation that any of the votes involved was fraudulent or tainted in any way?

[Brett Bellmore]

The basic issue is that, due to the election worker fuck ups, it was impossible to tell if they WERE 300K legitimate votes, or 300K totally fabricated votes.

That's the damn POINT of maintaining the records, you understand: To establish that the count they report is legitimate!

It would be stupid to think all 300K were faked. It would be reckless to assume none of them were, when the people in the best position to fake them made sure that if they had, nobody could prove it.

The one thing I'm certain of is that nobody involved should be allowed to administer an election for dog catcher.

[loki13]

Again, Brett is demonstrating either his gullibility or his wilful ignorance. I'd say to blame the people that are spoonfeeding him the misinformation, but given that Brett regularly posts nonsense (requiring other people to repeatedly have to point out that he didn't read an article, or misrepresented an article, or that the article is so obviously terrible I couldn't make it through the first section and graphic before giving up, or that the article isn't actually an article but an opinion piece that still doesn't say what Brett claims it does) ... and that Brett is regularly and repeatedly told this ...

At some point, you have to look to the common denominator to find fault.

UNLESS ... unless Brett is really just trolling all of us, making us waste our own time rebutting his continual nonsense. Could be that. After all, every time I click one of his links and then have to reply pointing out why it's nonsense, that's time I don't get back.

[Bob from Ohio]

"making us waste our own time "

Brett is making you write 20,000+ words a day here. Gun? Knife?

[TwelveInchPianist]

"At some point, you have to look to the common denominator to find fault."

And sometimes you just have to look at the mirror.

[loki13]

So there's this-

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/17/letitia-james-indictment-third-charge-00697148

Something I've been noticing, over and over and over again, is the DOJ's new-found love of trying to seal court documents so that the public doesn't learn about their lies and incompetence. Well, they've used other tactics as well (in one case, they contacted the clerk and surreptitiously "removed" a document from the docket against the rules ... which the judge caught and had reinstated).

It's happened repeatedly- we see it here (they tried to seal this so people didn't know how they are messing up so hard in the James case ... and also just making stuff up). They've been doing it in the Abrego Garcia case ... who can forget the whole, "We will seal the document saying that Costa Rica won't accept him so Costa Rica will never know we are lying about it!" I've been seeing it in a lot of cases.

...if only there was a VC Contributor who had an interest in sealing records ... you think they might have picked up on this.

Anyway, in the Tennessee Abrego case, the DOJ has been battling to keep a judicial order sealed ... a judicial order that, apparently, required the DOJ to produce evidence that is was trying to keep from the Defense. The Defense just wrote a brief about unsealing the order, and ... this may shock you, the cases they cite liberally quote precedents about why it's so important to have transparency in criminal court proceedings when they are questions about prosecutorial misconduct and ethical violations.

I expect we'll see the document unsealed soon.

I guess I will have to amend my statement- remember, they lie, they lie, they lie, they try to seal their lies, and then they lie again.

[Armchair]

A new plan for ICE.

As much "fun" as mass raids are, perhaps it should be added to with an employer-based component. An unmarked ICE truck should simply drive by a construction site and take a few pictures noting the pictures of the people working. Then an ICE employee should approach the foreman. If others run, it's not a problem. ICE asks "can you provide the employment verification for these people". And if they can't or the paperwork is a fake (either on site or at the office)...it's a simple $5,000 fine per person. And ICE says they'll be back in 2 weeks.

We can add to it with the "helper provisions". Individuals who call ICE and provide evidence of illegal labor at a site are entitled to 10% of the fined amount. I'm sure plenty of people would be happy to get $500.

[Frank Drackman]

Might work if most of the Foreman weren't Ill-legals too.
Also, are you aware of the Organization that's behind most Construction? (and Sanitation, and Plumbing, and Landscaping) in our Major Cities? It starts with an "M" and ends with "OB" and they specialize in fitting troublemakers with Concrete Wingtips.
They're also known for being very Organized.

Frank

[David Nieporent]

But since what you call "fun" — but what decent human beings call "cruelty" — is the entire point, why would ICE do that?

[Longtobefree]

How about we start a war between illegals?
Offer citizenship to anyone who rats out 5 illegals that actually get deported.

[hobie]

I wish ICE would come by one of my fab shops. I've got a ton of illegals. All my competitors' fab shops have a ton as well.

I tell you what, just go door to door throughout the industrial sectors of Houston and round up all the Pedros. You'll then have to confiscate every boat in the shadow fleet to make up for the crash in America's energy sector.

[Stella Link's Ghost]

"I tell you what, just go door to door throughout the industrial sectors of Houston"
They haul our garbage, they drive our buses, they build our roads and repair them, they dig our ditches, they build our houses, they clean our office buildings, they make our restaurants work, they care for the patients in our hospitals. The immigrant population In the Houston area, much of it undocumented, is essential to the way things work around here.

[hobie]

It really very simple. My Venezuelan gang member is smarter, works harder than, and is better educated than any drug-addled MAGA hillbilly.

The devices we make such has pipe hangers and pressure vessels - should they fail - could take out an entire refinery. Who would you rather have making them things?

[Brett Bellmore]

No, they're essential to making sure it gets done a bit cheaper than the businesses hiring them would have to otherwise pay.

There are no jobs Americans are unwilling to do. The point of flooding the country with illegal labor is just to lower the cost of that labor.

[Bob from Ohio]

"essential to the way things work around here"

Have you considered raising wages?

[bernard11]

Inefficient, Armchair.

Let's just establish a full-blown corps of "Defenders of American Purity," to monitor all activity anywhere. Not only could it report on suspected illegal immigrants, it could also report anyone who criticizes Trump, including local newspapers and radio.

We wouldn't mistreat the critics, of course, just send them off to nice re-education camps in the countryside so they can learn the Truth.

[ReaderY]

This was intended as a reply to Loki13’s post above.

I think thaat’s a very fair criticism of Professor Volokh. Professor Volokh should start including Justice Department (I was going to say Ministry of Love, but we’re not there yet) attempts to seal records on his regular reporting on record-sealing attempts. If not, I think it becomes pretty clear he is acting like German academics and writers in the 1930s, avoiding doing things that might be interpreted as criticism of the government in order to save his job and commections (Not yet his skin, but we’re heading in that direction.) You flee the Soviet Union and THIS what you wind up with? Where can Professor Volokh flee to next if it comes to it?

I suppose Professor Volokh would be entitled to reply that at least HE isn’t the one posting pseudonymously.

[loki13]

While you obviously caught what I was serving, I will say two things in fairness to EV-

1. He can write about whatever he wants to.

2. He may not be following this stuff; pretty sure that he mostly is looking at civil sealing not involving the government.

That said, I've always liked EV. I ...do think his posts have changed somewhat over time. If I were to speculate, I'd note that there were two events (IMO) that might have influenced his views, but that's just my spitballing.

[Mr. Bumble]

Which "two events"?

[JoeFromtheBronx]

Let's read about one more "isn't this interesting" lower court opinion instead.

[loki13]

...you know, one might say that the selection of lower court opinion that a person finds interesting is, itself, interesting.

I'm not saying that. But one might say that.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

Josh Blackman seems to have an unusually large number of SCOTUS history posts about second-rate justices.

[apedad]

A Soviet Jew who emigrated to the US and became a naturalized citizen* critizing Trump?!?

Whaddya trying to do - get Prof. Volokh arrested and deported?!?!?

Sure, I criticize him for not commenting on many (most?) of his blog entries but that doesn't rise to deportation level . . . right?

* I'm guessing on the naturalization part since his wiki entry doesn't describe that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Volokh

[Bob from Ohio]

"he is acting like German academics and writers"

Jewish man is just a coward before modern Nazis, eh?

[loki13]

By the way, does anyone remember when Presidential Addresses used to be about ... something important? Anything ... important?

I dunno ... was Trump afraid that people might not be thinking about his insane and angry Grampa ramblings for some portion of their waking hours, and felt the need to personally harangue as many people as possible with yet another unhinged performance?

It's just weird.

[Malika la Maize]

The Whitefish Mountain Resort, long known locally as Big Mountain, sits about 60 miles south of the U.S.-Canada border and has historically gotten a quarter of its business from up north.

"We think of Canadians as our neighbors, and British Columbia and Alberta, we're right here — we're a border state," says Zak Anderson, executive director of Explore Whitefish, the local resort chamber.
Montana state tourism officials have tracked about a 25% drop in Canadian visitors since Trump slapped steep tariffs on Canada and suggested that it should become the 51st U.S. state. Locals are sad and frustrated.

"We don't have a say in, you know, national politics," Anderson says.

Canadian credit card spending is also down by 12% in Whitefish's upscale boutiques, restaurants and hotels. It's a big deal for a town with less than 10,000 people — and Anderson hopes Canadians will come back.
"You know, for a little community like ours, the message is, we're here — we're open for business," he says.

This anxiety extends far beyond the American ski industry. The U.S. Travel Association is projecting that 5 million fewer international visitors will visit the United States this year.

https://www.npr.org/2025/12/01/nx-s1-5545712/us-ski-resorts-steep-drop-international-travel-politics

[loki13]

"This anxiety extends far beyond the American ski industry. The U.S. Travel Association is projecting that 5 million fewer international visitors will visit the United States this year."

I have a lot of friends abroad. When they ask (and they do), I tell them not to come to the United States right now. It's not just the crazy restrictions and checks and everything else (not to mention the possibility of friggin' ICE coming after you when you can't show your papers- and yes, there have been tourists that have not just been detained, but held in our concentration camps by ICE) ... it's also that things can change rapidly and on a whim (social media checks, random denials of entry, and so on).

There are so many wonderful places to go in the world. The United States is one of them- but right now, it's just not worth it.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Is Canadian spending IN CANADA remaining constant?

[Mr. Hook]

I'm Canadian and, for what it's worth, my sense is that whichever party or policies follow the current administration, America has lost Canadians' trust for at least a generation. I was shocked at how quickly Canadians rallied around boycotting American products and travelling to the US because Canadians are notoriously averse to nationalist expression. Yet the tariffs, the 51st state talk, and the possibility of getting sent to an ICE gulag was like flipping a light switch. Tolerance for paying more to avoid American goods. Altering habitual winter travel plans. Willing to endure some hardship rather than kiss the ring. We'll develop new habits over the next several years, new trade partners, new travel destinations, but we won't soon forget what's happened in the past twelve months. We've seen how quickly America will piss on its long-standing friendships.

The usual suspects here will, of course, snicker and say you don't need us and/or we'll come crawling back. Maybe, but I'm skeptical. As I said, the response of Canadians as a whole was shocking and suggests to me a course correction of attitudes. But in the meantime, a lot of your fellow countrymen whose livelihoods depend on other nations' citizens' basic trust of the current administration are going to suffer. But, hey, totally worth it for that buzz that comes from being contemptuous of others.

[Brett Bellmore]

Canadians lost MY trust back when my family lost a beach house on Lake St. Claire that had been in the family for generations, because you demanded we cough up a 20% tax on it Right Now. Didn't even give us a reasonable amount of time to raise the money. Aggravated by the fact that the Belle River police wouldn't do anything about the Canadian next door parking his earth moving equipment on our lawn whenever we weren't there, and moving the fence several feet away from the property line onto our land.

Individual Americans and Canadians have been friendly with each other for generations, but our governments have been at loggerheads the whole time.

[loki13]

"Individual Americans and Canadians have been friendly with each other for generations, but our governments have been at loggerheads the whole time."

Brett's anecdote about something that totally happened in exactly the way he described, to him, completely justifies this statement.

And it disproves the actual manifold and manifest statistical evidence that Canadian tourism has cratered in a way never before seen (COVID excepted) to America, and, moreover, the actual actions of Canadian consumers.

Cool story?

[Mr. Hook]

Neat story that doubtless unfolded exactly as you state. You have my deepest sympathies, as clearly your hurt justifies your feelings toward Canada. If I could give you a hug to make up for my country's terrible crime towards you and your family, I would.

Given that this personal experience has shaped your view of Canada, here's a fun thing to imagine. Think about how your country treats non-Americans and consider how they should feel about your nation and what the repercussions of that might be.

[Bob from Ohio]

"repercussions of that might be."

Nothing?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqF_A6bsyEw

[Ridgeway]

Have you seen any change in the way Canadians react to individual Americans, particularly tourists?

Personally I have been up to Canada (Quebec) several times since Trump took office, and have not noticed any difference.

[Mr. Hook]

I'm in Ottawa, so we have plenty of tourists, and I haven't noticed any change, except perhaps that Americans are more likely to apologize or to distance themselves from the current administration. I wouldn't describe it as humility per se, but more sympathy. I suspect any American red hatting it up here would get a frostier reception, unless they were in Alberta or Saskatchewan.

[Ska]

Yeah, Qubecois have always been minorly dickish to American English speakers.

I kid - mostly. 😉

[Bob from Ohio]

Qubecois have always been dickish to Canadian English speakers too.

[Frank Drackman]

Please! more Canadian Anecdotes!!
I'll give you an Italian Anecdote, Aviano Italy, 1996, the Italian Men really didn't like Amuricans, because the Italian Women liked us better than them, maybe because we showered, were halfway nice, and didn't look like Bowser from Sha-Na-Na,
And this was BEFORE the Prowler flew into the Ski Tram and gave them something legitimate to be angry about.
Their biggest Insult?? Calling some Marine from Mississippi a "Yankee" The come back?
"Ho scopato tua madre!"
but you have to say it with an accent like Robert Deniro in "2":
only bit of the Italian I remember, except for "Pronto" (like "Aloha" which can mean "Hello" or "Good Bye")

Frank

[SRG2]

Is Trump going to announce that the US is going to war with Venezuela and would you agree with his decision if he did?

[loki13]

Here's my view-

1. If Trump unilaterally declares it, no, I would not agree. Why? Because the President cannot unilaterally declare war. There is also no AUMF that authorizes it. Our actions are already unlawful, and Trump saying, "I wanna get sum oil," doesn't make it lawful.

2. If Trump goes to Congress, and they declare war (or provide authority through an AUMF), then I would support it as a matter of law, but disagree as a matter of policy. I dislike Maduro. The world would be a better place if he was gone.* I support efforts to destabilize his regime (covertly and through assistance).

But we don't have any pressing national security concerns involving Venezuela. Not only would it destabilize the country, the history of "Yankee Imperialism" in the region isn't great, and is counterproductive to our long-term interests with other countries in the area. Also? Not only would it be costly, not only would we be stuck with a presence there for a while (and breed hostility and resentment) ... but wars tend to breed ... refugees, don't they?

In short ... no. And WTF?

*Probably. But nature abhors a vacuum, and it's not guaranteed that the result will be better.

[hobie]

South American countries with the highest black population:

1. Brazil
2. Columbia
3. Venezuela

...and the lowest

1. Paraguay (Bloomberg 3 days ago: "Paraguay has emerged as a close ally of the Trump administration")
2. Chile (Just elected MAGA president)
3. Argentina ($20B in free farmer quid)

Probably coincidental that the big three are all on the Trump shit list

[Estragon]

Just so everyone is clear: they are talking about invading Venezuela on behalf of Chevron shareholders. Getting kids killed to vindicate corporate interests (that were compensated!!) from the 70s. This is so insanely bad it’s hard to wrap my mind around. I will admit when MAGA talked about an America First foreign policy— no more endless wars— I did not realize they meant sending Americans off to die for the benefit of oil company shareholders. Who aren’t even all Americans!

[loki13]

"It’s best to understand that fascists see hypocrisy as a virtue. It’s how they signal that the things they are doing to people were never meant to be equally applied.

It’s not an inconsistency. It’s very consistent to the only true fascist value, which is domination. It’s very important to understand, fascists don’t just see hypocrisy as a necessary evil or an unintended side-effect.

It’s the purpose. The ability to enjoy yourself the thing you’re able to deny others, because you dominate, is the whole point."

A. R. Moxon

[Ridgeway]

According to Andy McCarthy, although Venezuela did compensate the oil companies (including Chevron) for the 1970s-era expropriations, Chavez did his own round of expropriations that were not. The main victim seems to have been ConocoPhillips, which won a big judgment against Venezuela (recently upheld on appeal), and a Canadian mining company. XOM also got a small (by comparison) judgment. CVX was unaffected by the expropriations.

Still a silly reason to go to war, especially since Venezuela may well pay the judgment (or at least settle it out) now that it has lost the appeal.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/12/fact-checking-trumps-claim-that-venezuela-stole-oil-and-land-from-the-u-s/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=featured-writers&utm_term=first

[SRG2]

Is this going to be "Son of U:nited Fruit"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Guatemalan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

[Joe_dallas]

Estragon 3 hours ago
"Just so everyone is clear: they are talking about invading Venezuela on behalf of Chevron shareholders."

It would be for the benefit of Venezuela citizens. At one point 12-15 years ago Venezuela was one of the richest countries in South America. Then something happened, something that many elites in the US praised. Guess what resulted.

[SRG2]

Longer than 15 years, I think. But that doesn't justify going to war.

Care to take a shot at answering my question?

[Joe_dallas]

I was correcting Estragon's error

But no the US should not go to war with Venezuela. - I prefer advocates of socialism and other Woke to wallow and enjoy the fruits of their creations.

[Estragon]

I’m sure we will be greeted as liberators!

It is really beyond belief that someone who has been alive for the last 25 years would actually say this— let alone purport to believe it— but Trumpism has its demands.

[hobie]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/17/us/australia-hate-speech-legislation.html?unlocked_article_code=1.9k8.1_Z6.NSKybsi3HBVq&smid=url-share

Australia to Crack Down on Hate Speech After Bondi Attack

"It is not clear what behaviors and speech will be captured under the new legislation, and the government did not provide examples...
For individuals who used language that was “clearly dehumanizing, unacceptable, having no place in Australia, but have not quite crossed the threshold to violence,” the new legislation would lower that threshold..."

Looks like a lot of you Young Republicans won't be getting your visa for Down Under. Plus your five years of social media submission will get you for the gay and black hate as well.

[Brett Bellmore]

Sounds to me like the plan is to respond to Islamic terrorism by arresting anyone who... talks about the terrorists being Islamic.

[Sarcastr0]

Great point - radical Muslims never use clearly dehumanizing language.

[Kazinski]

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.
CPI came out this morning and it was ice cold.

"The seasonally adjusted index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent over the 2 months ending in November. From September to November, the index for shelter increased 0.2 percent. .
The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending November, after rising 3.0 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the last 12 months."

The All items CPI y/y rate of 2.7 was the lowest since May.

The Core CPI y/y rate of 2.6% was the lowest since 2021.

So much for the theory that latent tariff increases were going to come along and keep boosting inflation.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12182025.htm

[Josh R]

These data support the theory that the affect of tariffs have peaked (inflation is supposed to drop after tariffs have had their full impact). More data is needed to confirm, likely about 3-to-6 months worth.

But even assuming we are past the peak, prices are still going up from what is now a higher base. Trump's promise to lower prices on Day One and his insistence that tariffs is his favorite word spell continued trouble at the polls for the GOP. To turn it around, the GOP needs tangible (i.e., the people feel it) good results in 2026.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

Yes. Then Republican voters can have more reason to justify supporting Donald Trump, while being mildly upset (if you are gauche enough to bring it up) about all the horrible things he does and says.

[Some, of course, bluntly are okay with such things, but as with the remarks about Rob Reiner, now and then, many of them still are somewhat uncomfortable.}

[jb]

Eh, this report is mostly GIGO because of the shutdown. For example:

For instance, Omair Sharif, president of the firm Inflation Insights, said the BLS seemed to have assumed no increase in rent for October.

“This is totally inexcusable,” Sharif said in a note to clients. “I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06 percent and [owner-occupied rent] at 0.135 percent is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are.”

The December report will be more interesting. Based on the (also possibly flawed) jobs data this week, though, it's possible the economy is just sputtering out, so we're seeing rising unemployment as well as decreasing inflationary pressure. That's a lot better than stagflation, at least, so there's that.

[Kazinski]

That doesn't seem to conform to how the BLS calculates inflation. The current index is at 439. they maintain their index of surveyed rents and then calculate the percentage change in the index.

So it really shouldn't matter if they ignore the prices for 6 months, if the average rent of a 2 bedroom apartment 6 months ago was $1750, and its $1775 six months later even if you don't know what the index was two months ago, you can still calculate the percentage change from 6 months ago.

I'm not saying the Rent or any of the indexes are flawless, but to explain it that way seems to lack a basic understanding of their method.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA

[jb]

You are describing what's supposed to happen, not what happened in this case.

Like I said, there's pretty wide consensus that there's technical problems with this report. We'll know in December what actually happened.

[SRG2]

i.e., the people who spent years doubting Federal stats for no reason, now accept Fed stats when there is reason to doubt them.

[Bob from Ohio]

There is always a reason for doubting Federal stats. Last 4 years and now.

They are just estimates based on surveys.

[SRG2]

One can regard an estimate as reasonable but not necessarily perfectly accurate. But to dismiss it entirely is another matter. As is suddenly to accept it having dismissed it in prior years.

[bernard11]

The Core CPI y/y rate of 2.6% was the lowest since 2021.

Why, I can recall like yesterday when Trumpists dismissed the core rate as meaningless. Suddenly they think it's all-important (It actually is pretty important.)

[loki13]

I was waiting for someone to post the inflation rate that came out. Which seems like good news ... until you read past the headlines.

See, there's a problem. The Fed (and people who follow the economy) are treating this report .... "skeptically." Now, I'm not saying the numbers are cooked. Really, I'm not. We don't have evidence of that.

But there is strong evidence that there are technical issues with the report that caused the inflation number to be underreported. Maybe it's because of the government shutdown. Maybe it's technical error. But the problems are apparent in the report once you go beyond the topline numbers.

How do we know? Well, there aren't just the expected issues with the collection of data (again, shutdown). It's some truly bizarre assumptions in the report; for example, the report assumes that there was no increase in rent in October. So they base the inflation rate of rent ... by assuming a zero increase in rent, and then extrapolate the two-month rent increase.

In short- I'd take this with a salt shaker worth of salt until we see the December data (which comes out next month).

[Ridgeway]

"How do we know? Well, there aren't just the expected issues with the collection of data (again, shutdown). It's some truly bizarre assumptions in the report; for example, the report assumes that there was no increase in rent in October. So they base the inflation rate of rent ... by assuming a zero increase in rent, and then extrapolate the two-month rent increase."

Not sure why this is bizarre. I you have an accurate SEP number, and an accurate NOV number, but no OCT number, calculating the 2-month increase is easy. However, you dont know how much either individual month was (just that they by definition add up to the 2-month figure). There should not be any extrapolation in the 2-month number.

[loki13]

...you didn't actually look at it, did you? It has to be based on actual data (that's the entire point of the report). I was providing one easy-to-understand example of why the lack of data collection shows the report is flawed.

Here's the issue, making a simple observation (time is T).

T0: $10
T1: ?
T2: $20

Report says that the inflation between T0 and T2 was constant. It also says that we had a 100% average inflation rate on a monthly basis.

Which means that the assumed inflation rate in T1 was actually 0.

Now, that might be true. But it likely indicates that there are some serious issues with the report that warrant skepticism- something is clearly wrong, or inflation suddenly halted completely and resumed, or ... you tell me.

Do you follow?

The point is ... trust*, but verify. Wait for the December numbers.

*I am using the phrase loosely given what we know about this administration. And also because I really really really don't want to think that they are actively trying to fudge the BLS numbers; I'd rather this was the result of some technical issues combined with data gathering problems due to the shutdown.

[Kazinski]

The core rate is meaningless, for the long term, but it's very useful for the short term, since a bad harvest or a oil price spike is going to be transitory.

So over a period of a year or even 2 years, the core inflation rate is probably the truer rate. And that's why the Fed looked at Core PCE, because their horizon is relatively short term.

[JoeFromtheBronx]

Kennedy, whose staffers have apparently spent a considerable amount of time on Olson’s page on SermonAudio.com, also asked Olson about a 2022 sermon in which he characterized “transgenderism, homosexuality, fornication, and all sorts of sexual perversions” as forms of hypocrisy that come from “shame on the inside.” In response, Olson said that he didn’t “recall the precise wording” of his remarks, but conceded that the language Kennedy read “sounds familiar.” (At least it wasn’t a Sunday school lecture this time, I guess.)

https://ballsandstrikes.org/nominations/justin-olson-senate-judiciary-committee-hearing/

I wonder how it would go over if a Democratic senator asked a nominee to discuss their sermons.

[Frank Drackman]

Has anyone caught Nick Reiner's comedy act? I heard he absolutely killed in Brentwood last weekend.

Too soon? wait until you hear my Marshawn Kneeland material.

Frank

[John 4]

I missed it when I was wiping Charlie Kirk’s arterial spray off my face.

[Frank Drackman]

I'm sure you've had plenty of "Sprays" on your face.

[LawTalkingGuy]

Anyone else think it’s weird that DOJ hasn’t decided whether it’ll seek the death penalty against Vance Boelter? Even though they (and the President) have spoken about how necessary it is and almost immediately sought it for Luigi Mangione despite Boelter having killed two people, a dog, severely wounding two others, and having a plan to kill more?

It’s almost as high level DOJ officials don’t actually care all that much if people murder democrats and don’t want to bring any attention to such things.

[Frank Drackman]

I'd give it to him just for killing the Dog.

[David Nieporent]

Testimony is over in the Hannah Dugan prosecution; just summation left. Judge Dugan moved for a judgment of acquittal, but the judge did not, as Not Guilty fervently hoped, immediately grant it. (Took it under advisement.)

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.wied.111896/gov.uscourts.wied.111896.88.0.pdf

[LawTalkingGuy]

Biskupic, eh? Now there’s a guy who knows his bullshit prosecutions.

[loki13]

"Judge Dugan moved for a judgment of acquittal, but the judge did not, as Not Guilty fervently hoped, immediately grant it. (Took it under advisement.)"

True story- was back in the day (I was still in law school), a judge I was clerking with said that it was common practice in that area to never grant a judgment of acquittal because the judges assumed that the jury would get the right result.

(As a side note, there was a story of a time it didn't happen, and the judge ended up having to JNOV, which for ... reasons ... caused issues.)

Not saying that's the case here, but I was reminded of that. As always, take my pronouncements regarding crimlaw practice with the understanding that I don't do it. 😉

[loki13]

So Trump is unilaterally renaming the John F. Kennedy Center .... the Trump-Kennedy Center.

Wow. Honestly, that's the worst thing that's ever happened to Kennedy.

Yeah, I went there.

Anyway, this goes back to the whole penny issue from yesterday. I am sure that the morons around here don't realize this, but the Kennedy Center? It's actually named BY CONGRESSIONAL STATUTE. Trump can't unilaterally change it. Just like he can't change the name of the Department of Defense because he feels bad about his really really small .... hands.

But he can spend a lot of our taxpayer money and having the names on letterhead, and buildings, and everything else changed (seriously, it's costing the DOD billions) for something that is completely cosmetic and can't actually override the actual duly-passed law, and will require us more money to put it back in compliance with the law.

But I'm sure it's all good fun for the people who want to own the libs, or something. "We can't spend money on the people to make our public lands work, but we can spend however much we need to execute the mad whims of someone who likes to rename stuff, mostly after himself, that will end up getting changed back. Also, the Democrats are responsible for the deficit, and we will remind you of that after Trump runs it up some more."