The Volokh Conspiracy
Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent
Assessing the Extent of Political Violence in America
Cato Institute scholar has a great overview of the data on how much political violence there is, and who perpetrates it. It is less prevalent than many think, and right-wing political violence is more common than the left-wing kind.
The awful murder of conservative activist Charlie Kirk has stimulated interest in the nature and extent of political violence in the United States. We do not yet know the identity and motive of the killer; but there is at least a substantial likelihood the motive was political in nature. My Cato Institute colleague Alex Nowrasteh has a great overview of the available data on political violence since 1975. He finds that the overall incidence of such violence is much lower than many assume. The 9/11 attacks dominate the stats, accounting for 83% of total deaths. Setting that aside, right-wing violence is significantly more prevalent than the left-wing variety.
It should, perhaps, go without saying. But I condemn the murder of Charlie Kirk without reservation. It is utterly indefensible, and I hope the killer is caught and severely punished. I was no fan of Kirk and his ideology. His organization, TPUSA, even once put me on its "Professor Watchlist" (they apparently removed me from the list a few months later, without explanation). But no one should be attacked or killed for their political beliefs. The murder is all the more tragic in light of the fact that Kirk left behind a wife and two small children. They did nothing to deserve this.
Now for Alex's summary of the data on violence:
A total of 3,599 people have been murdered in politically motivated terrorist attacks in the United States from January 1, 1975, through September 10, 2025. Murders committed in terrorist attacks account for about 0.35 percent of all murders since 1975. Only 81 happened since 2020, accounting for 0.07 percent of all murders during that time, or 7 out of 10,000. Terrorism is the broadest reasonable definition of a politically motivated murder because it is the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a nonstate actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through coercion, fear, or intimidation….
Eighty-three percent of those murdered since 1975 were committed by the 9/11 terrorists…. The Oklahoma City Bombing accounts for about another 5 percent. Those murdered since 2020 account for just 2 percent. Terrorists inspired by Islamist ideology are responsible for 87 percent of those murdered in attacks on US soil since 1975…. Right-wingers are the second most common motivating ideology, accounting for 391 murders and 11 percent of the total. The definition here of right-wing terrorists includes those motivated by white supremacy, anti-abortion beliefs, involuntary celibacy (incels), and other right-wing ideologies.
Left-wing terrorists murdered 65 people, or about 2 percent of the total. Left-wing terrorists include those motivated by black nationalism, anti-police sentiment, communism, socialism, animal rights, environmentalism, anti-white ideologies, and other left-wing ideologies. Those murders that are politically motivated by unknown or other ideologies are a vanishingly small percentage, which is unsurprising because terrorists typically want attention for their causes.
"Right" and "left" are somewhat arbitrary and incoherent categories. Thus, people can argue about some of Alex's coding choices here. For example, I am not sure black nationalists really qualify as "left" and incels as "right." Nonetheless, the coding here mostly tracks the way these terms are generally used in current US political discourse. Thus, Alex is right to conclude that right-wing violence is more prevalent than the left-wing kind, even though one can quarrel with the classification of a few specific perpetrators at the margin.
Given the outsize weight of the 9/11 attacks in the data, partisans will be tempted to categorize radical Islamists with their political opponents. Thus, left-wingers might argue that Islamists are on the right, due to their extreme social conservatism (they hate LGBT people, want women to be subordinated to men, and so on). On the other hand, one could also argue that they are actually left-wing, due to their hatred of Israel and opposition to American influence in the world. These latter attitudes are more prevalent on the far left, though there are elements of them on the nationalist/MAGA right, as well. In my view, al Qaeda and its ilk don't really fit on the US right-left political spectrum, and thus Alex is right to group radical Islamists in a separate category from either.
Regardless of the source, it is reassuring that political violence is relatively rare. The average American is vastly more likely to die in a car accident than be a victim of politically motivated murder. And, as Alex notes, such attacks account for only a tiny percentage of all murders. Prominent political figures are probably more at risk. Nonetheless, the overall level of danger is low, even for most of them.
For understandable reasons, Alex's data does not include death threats, which are surely far more common than actual murders or attempts. While the vast majority of such threats aren't acted on, they still cause pain and fear to those they target. I have reason to know, having gotten several myself, over the years, including one that turned out to be from "mail bomber" Cesar Sayoc. Better-known activists and political commentators likely get a lot more than I do. The increasing prevalence of social media and other forms of electronic communication have, I suspect, made such threats more common.
I am not aware of any good data on the relative prevalence of death threats by ideology (as opposed to actual attacks). But I suspect that right-wing ones are more common here, as well.
One person's experience isn't necessarily indicative. But over twenty years of libertarian commentary on law and public policy issues, I have said many things that annoy people on both right and left. With one arguable exception (a Russian nationalist angered by my condemnations of Vladimir Putin's regime), every single one of the threats I have gotten was from right-wingers, mostly related to the issue of immigration. By contrast, I have never gotten threats for things like criticizing affirmative action, condemning socialism, opposing "defunding the police," or attacking student loan forgiveness. Some of these have generated other types of online nastiness. But never any threats of violence.
As already noted, more systematic data is needed here. Perhaps my experience will turn out to be atypical.
I don't see any ready solution to the problem of politically motivated death threats. Given how easy they are to make, it is probably unrealistic to expect the authorities to track down more than a small fraction of them. Social media firms may be doing a better job of combating them then a few years ago. But that, too, is difficult. All I can say is that we should condemn them, and avoid being intimidated by them.
As for actual political violence, it is good that it remains relatively rare. But we should be wary of the danger that it might become worse.
UPDATE: Alex Nowrasteh has a follow-up post with more information on his methodology and data sources.
