Trump's Tariff Power Grab May not be Over

Yesterday's deals with Canada and Mexico stopped the trade war for now. But Trump may yet return to asserting sweeping authority to impose whatever tariffs he wants.

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Yesterday, Trump postponed his plan to impose massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as a result of deals in which the two countries largely promised to do things they were already doing, actions that are highly unlikely to curb the fentanyl crisis that Trump used as a pretext for his actions.

But this doesn't necessarily mean that the crisis is over. After all, Trump only postponed te tariffs by 30 days. He hasn't cancelled the plan to impose them entirely. What he does after the thirty day deadline expires remains to be seen. In addition, Trump's tariff ambitions may not be limited to Canada and Mexico. He also threatens to impose them on the European Union and others. Moreover, even just threatening tariffs only to pull back after extorting concessions on other issues, causes real harm, by disrupting the continuity and legal certainty on which trade relationships depend. A key purpose of free trade agreements - like the USMCA deal that Trump himself signed with Canada and Mexico in 2018, only to violate it now - is to establish certainty and forestall opportunistic imposition of trade restrictions.

Thus, we cannot rest easy about this issue. Importers and others should still plan to bring legal action against the imposition of these kinds of tariffs. And they would do well to use the major questions and nondelegation arguments I outlined here. As also noted in my earlier post, opponents should also do everything they can to oppose the tariffs politically, by highlighting the ways in which they will increase prices for Americans.