The Volokh Conspiracy
Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent
TikTok, HamHom, and the First Amendment
I was having a conversation with my Stanford colleague Diego Zambrano, and this perspective on the TikTok case emerged. I'm not positive it's a sound perspective; but I thought I'd pass it along and see what people thought about it.
[1.] Let's imagine for a moment that there was a social media platform, HamHom, that was run by Hamas. Hamas is a designated foreign terrorist organization, so the federal material support statute outlaws "knowingly provid[ing] material support or resources" to it. That includes providing "communications equipment" and general "facilities" or "service[s]." It seems to me that it would therefore be illegal for, say, Google and Apple to carry the HamHom app in their app stores, or to provide internet hosting services for HamHom.
And this application of the material support statute to HamHom would be constitutional, given Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project (2010). Holder upheld parallel provisions of the material support statute that banned providing "training" and "expert advice or assistance" to designated foreign terrorist organizations.
The Court recognized that the statute restricted speech, including the challengers' plans to "train members of [a terrorist group] on how to use humanitarian and international law to peacefully resolve disputes," and to "teach [the group's] members how to petition various representative bodies such as the United Nations for relief." But the Court nonetheless upheld the law, because it was "carefully drawn" and served "an urgent objective of the highest order"—the interest in "combating terrorism." That was especially so because the law targeted activity coordinated with the foreign organization, and excluded "independent advocacy." (Op-eds in the New York Times praising a foreign terrorist organization weren't covered, however much they might help the organization.)
Given that providing training and expert advice to Hamas is illegal and constitutionally unprotected, providing it with communications facilities (again, such as internet hosting or app distribution) would be, too. That would be true even if our concern is Hamas's use of the facilities as a means of gathering detailed information about individual Americans (e.g., what they're viewing, what they're searching for, and so on) or as a means of spreading Hamas propaganda. And it would be true even if HamHom had somehow drawn a lot of American users, so that banning it (and thus making American users switch to other platforms) would make it harder for them to reach the audience that they had developed on HamHom.
[2.] Now of course the analogy between HamHom and TikTok, and Hamas and China, is imperfect. (That's why it's an analogy.) TikTok isn't a designated foreign terrorist organization, and the Chinese government, which I think can reasonably be seen as having potential indirect power over TikTok, isn't one, either.
The foreign terrorist organization statute basically treats us as being at war with those organizations, and forbids all support for them. But China, though perhaps our most dangerous foreign adversary, is also a tremendously important trading partner. American companies do over $500 billion in yearly trade with Chinese companies, which doubtless ends up providing a great deal of material support to the Chinese government; yet we don't prohibit that. International relations are complicated matters, in which countries have to reconcile many often conflicting concerns.
But though the interest in protecting us against Chinese power isn't the same as the interest in combating foreign terrorist, it seems to me that it's at least as great in magnitude. Indeed, the Chinese government poses much greater danger than do foreign terrorist organizations to liberty throughout the world, to American interests throughout the world, and to the security of our allies and our own nation. And that danger is magnified when we're talking about not just relatively minor contributions to a foreign terrorist organization, but the provision of communications services for a massive social media platform potentially controlled by the Chinese government.
To be sure, China also offers us much more potential value through peaceful trade and cooperation—but to benefit from that value, we need to take steps to protect ourselves from Chinese power. Under Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project, we can ban Americans' providing app store space and Internet hosting to terrorist-run platforms. Likewise, I think, it's constitutional for the TikTok divestment statute to ban Americans' providing app store space and Internet hosting to a platform that's ultimately under the thumb of the Chinese government.
[3.] The cases also differ in the precise means through which the relevant material support will undermine the relevant government interest. In Holder, one danger was that material support to terrorist organizations can help the organizations' engage in terrorist attacks. A second was that it "helps lend legitimacy to foreign terrorist groups—legitimacy that makes it easier for those groups to persist, to recruit members, and to raise funds—all of which facilitate more terrorist attacks." A third was that such support frees up money that can be used for such attacks.
In TikTok, one danger is that providing communications facilities that let TikTok operate in the U.S. (and "collect[] vast amounts of information from and about its American users") can help Chinese intelligence agencies "exploit sensitive data on individual Americans to undermine U.S. interests, including by recruiting assets, identifying Americans involved in intelligence, and pressuring and blackmailing our citizens to assist China." A second is that providing such facilities can help China subtly influence American political debate. But again, despite the difference in how the prohibited actions can substantially undermine the government interest, it seems that the prohibited actions likely would substantially undermine that interest.
Nor does it matter under Holder that reasonable minds might differ about the magnitude (or even the existence) of the threat. As the Holder majority put it,
[C]oncerns of national security and foreign relations do not warrant … defer[ring] to the Government's reading of the First Amendment …. [T]he Government's "authority and expertise in these matters do not automatically trump the Court's own obligation to secure the protection that the Constitution grants to individuals." But when it comes to collecting evidence and drawing factual inferences in this area, "the lack of competence on the part of the courts is marked," and respect for the Government's conclusions is appropriate.
One reason for that respect is that national security and foreign policy concerns arise in connection with efforts to confront evolving threats in an area where information can be difficult to obtain and the impact of certain conduct difficult to assess…. [D]emanding hard proof—with "detail," "specific facts," and "specific evidence"—that plaintiffs' proposed activities will support terrorist attacks … would be a dangerous requirement.
In this context, conclusions must often be based on informed judgment rather than concrete evidence, and that reality affects what we may reasonably insist on from the Government. The material-support statute is, on its face, a preventive measure—it criminalizes not terrorist attacks themselves, but aid that makes the attacks more likely to occur. The Government, when seeking to prevent imminent harms in the context of international affairs and national security, is not required to conclusively link all the pieces in the puzzle before we grant weight to its empirical conclusions.
The same analysis, it seems to me, applies to the TikTok divestment statute. Perhaps it might not apply to attempts to restrict all Chinese government communications. (Again, our relations with China are much more pervasive and complex than with foreign terrorist organizations.) But it would apply to Congressional and Presidential judgments about the perils posed by a social media platform that's as heavily used as TikTok is.
[4.] Now, I should offer a few words of caution. First, to repeat, this is a tentative analysis, and I might well be missing some important things. Second, it is also a general and brief analysis. (I mean "brief" here in the English sense of "brief," not the lawyer sense of calling a 13,000-word document a "brief.") There are many important details that it necessarily elides.
Third, Holder has drawn a good deal of criticism, including a thoughtful dissent by Justice Breyer, joined by Justices Ginsburg and Sotomayor. Indeed, perhaps critics who argued that Holder might be a step down the slippery slope (a concern I take very seriously) might look at this argument and say, "That's precisely the sort of slippage we warned about."
Fourth, this leaves the question of how Lamont v. Postmaster General (1965) fits into all this. Lamont struck down a federal statute under which the Postal Service wouldn't deliver "communist political propaganda" "issued by or on behalf of" certain countries unless the recipient affirmatively informed the Postmaster General that he wanted to receive it. Such a law, the Court held, unconstitutionally interfered with "the addressee's First Amendment rights."
Under the Holder-based reasoning laid out earlier in the post, Congress could have ordered the post office to categorically refuse to deliver all mail sent by or under the control of a Communist foreign government: That would essentially just be declining to provide "communications equipment" or "facilities" to adversary governments. Yet of course this would also have limited Americans' ability to receive such information, even more than the law struck down in Lamont did. (Americans could still get Communist propaganda printed in the U.S. or in friendly nations, but there may well have been less of that than the material coming from the horse's mouth.) Perhaps Lamont might be limited as not applying to such categorical bans, and covering only situations where the government was willing to deliver such foreign government mailings but required affirmative requests by the recipient to do so. But I agree that this wouldn't be fully consistent with some of the broad language in the Lamont opinion.
On the other hand, it seems clear that Holder would authorize a law requiring the post office not to deliver mail from Hamas: Given that Holder upheld a law forbidding even private entities from providing communications services to foreign terrorist organizations, surely the federal government could itself decline to provide such services. And I don't think the First Amendment draws a line between providing communications services to foreign terrorist groups and providing communications services to adversary foreign governments (again, especially when the communications services provide access to a platform that is of such potential espionage and influence value to the adversary government).
In any event, what I laid out above tentatively seems to me to be both an argument for upholding the TikTok divestiture law, and a means of framing a decision upholding the law in a way that least departs from First Amendment precedent. I'd love to hear what others think about this.
Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Comments may only be edited within 5 minutes of posting. Report abuses.
Please
to post comments
"and the Chinese government, which I think can reasonably be seen as having potential indirect power over TikTok, isn't one, either."
I think it's a bit more than potential, and not terribly indirect, in as much as TikTok is owned by and their software is designed/maintained by, Bytedance. Which is based out of China, where all companies are explicitly subject to government control.
It's admittedly one of my big hobby horses, but this again shows how much the Bill of Rights is in need of some kind of overarching structure/interpretation guide. Arguably hardcore originalism like in the Stolen Valor Act case could have provided that, but then you simply can't accept any exceptions to the First Amendment that didn't exist in 1789, and that leaves you with a Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project-shaped problem in your case law.
As long as cases like that remain good law, there is a need for some kind of framework to explain why certain exceptions exist and others don't, and how those exceptions are to be applied. ECtHR-style proportionality analysis does that. It gives you a way of probing a (proposed) exception that is prior to a case at bar, and therefore prior to any pragmatism that comes with a particular case.
We have two legal principles that help. One is the speech/conduct distinction. The other is the lesser standard of review for incidental burdens on speech (time, place, and manner).
In the European framework, are the rules clear enough that Donald Tusk and Boris Johnson can look at the same question and come to the same answer?
Boris Johnson can look at the same question and come up with two different answers, so that might not be such a good example...
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-column-back-remain_uk_576b9119e4b0b1f1704fea34
(It also doesn't help that neither Tusk nor Johnson is a lawyer.)
" ECtHR-style "
No thanks. Maybe some place that actually values free speech.
Martinned2 is not proposing that the SCOTUS follows ECtHR precedent. He's simply saying that the Court should provide some overarching explanation of why some exceptions exist and others don't.
Some people get triggered by any mention of Europe.
I guess it's a good thing then that we're Americans and not Europeans. Really not interested in doing it the European way, and the great thing is, we don't have to!
Especially since British police seem interested in investigating people about their social media posts. And Britain is the best of the bunch!
Thank goodness there is no such thing as "hate speech" under the First Amendment, because the first thing the party in power will do is wield it against its political enemies. If the first Trump and Biden administrations haven't taught everyone that lesson, we are in deep trouble. Fake news is whatever is bad for the current administration and needs to be suppressed. Yes, I'm talking about you, Biden cheap fakes. Everyone else can pick their favorite Trump lie he's doubled down on.
Reality is that, within a decade, we will either be in a shooting war with the ChiComs or they won't be running China.
China is an economic mess right now -- Evergrande et al -- and they need to wag the dog. So why are we helping them?
That's the best justification I have seen.
IMHO[1], there is an interesting distinction between inbound and outbound information. I wouldn't stop subscriptions to Völkischer Beobachter even during WWII. On the other hand, I don't have a problem with censoring or examining mail to Germany in WWII, or for that matter to the Soviet embassy in the cold war[2].
My reasoning is that if Mr. Schicklgruber wants to make the case to Americans that, say, the Allies ought to insist on something less than unconditional surrender, I want Americans to be able to hear that. We-the-people are in charge, and can listen to and evaluate whatever positions we like.
On the flip side, you can't have people phoning up Berlin with convoy sailing dates. That's not an information flow that helps we-the-people decide how to govern ourselves.
[1]And to be clear, this is me in ought-land; I'll leave is-land to the lawyers.
[2]and in fairness, apps aren't a purely one-way conduit in the way mail or radio is.
In theory a foreign terrorist organization designation is subject to judicial review.
How so?
See 8 USC 1189(c).
Review of a designation is like review of a regulation. Was the action arbitrary and capricious based on the administrative record? The government may present classified evidence to the judge without also providing it to the designated terrorist organization. So the deck is stacked.
Authoritarian regimes have a long history of labeling foreign media companies as "foreign agents" and imposing very severe restrictions on their activities. If this case were to be decided pragmatically, that alone should be enough to resolve the case.
Another thing: compelling interest is just one of the components of strict scrutiny. The main issue appears to be the least-restrictive-means part. If the international data collection is the problem, they could regulate that part (and in fact did).
Then... there's Sorrell. Hmmm.
Authoritarian regimes also have a long history of arresting innocent people as criminals, but that doesn't mean it's automatically forbidden to arrest criminals. The fact that an authoritarian regime fakes X doesn't mean we need to allow genuine X.
If you or I were to take money from people at gunpoint and use the money to hire people to run a server, and furthermore threaten to shoot the operators of the server if they don't run it how we want, we'd be arrested and our server shut down. The US can't arrest China, but shutting down the server should still be allowed. Letting someone extort money and use it for "free speech" isn't free speech.
The analogy breaks down when we ask whether Hamas would still be free to use HamHom to communicate with their audience--after they'd been forced to sell HamHom to a third party. Terrorist networks should not be able to use an app to facilitate terrorism.
The argument against China spreading disinformation is a red herring. The central question isn't about whether China should have the right to communicate on TikTok. The central question is whether they should have free access to the data TikTok hoovers.
If you want an analogy, how 'bout this: Did the Rosenbergs have a First Amendment right to communicate sensitive information to the USSR?
"The central question is whether they should have free access to the data TikTok hoovers."
A bit more than that; At present they have the power to dictate details of the app software, which doesn't just mean access to data TikTok collects, it also means the capacity to potentially mess with devices the app is installed on in all sorts of ways ranging from subtle to as gross. The TikTok app demands some really dangerous permissions when it installs. While they're not presently using those permissions in destructive ways, the potential exists for them to do so whenever China orders them to.
Your linked article was written in 2020, and what I presume you're referring to as "really dangerous permissions" either have been changed in subsequent versions of Android to not have the same unbounded functionality as they did back then (READ/WRITE_EXTERNAL_STORAGE, which now restrict an app to a specific folder except for standard shared media locations) or are now only allowed in rare cases on the Play Store level (REQUEST_INSTALL_PACKAGES). As a cross-check, I just verified REQUEST_INSTALL_PACKAGES isn't in the latest APK.
"The central question is whether they should have free access to the data TikTok hoovers."
Should any platform be entitled to retain data like that, or package and market it?
"Should any platform be entitled to retain data like that, or package and market it?"
So long as the users consent, yes, I suppose they should. Whether users should consent is another question. I won't put the TikTok app on my phone. I use Google Maps though. Google Maps even accurately tells me where the cops are. So, yeah, I think it should be an individual choice.
Whether Congress and the Commander-in-chief should be free to stop TikTok data from being shared in broad daylight--with an adversary that hacks our data for use against us in a potential conflict--is another question entirely. The Chinese hacks of AT&T and Verizon are extremely relevant here.
I'm beginning to think, with all these massive data breaches, that they might eventually conclude that collecting large amounts of information on people in one place is simply too high a risk to permit. At which point the unenforceability of contracts contrary to public interest might be invoked.
If it came to that, I would certainly argue against it.
It's one thing to argue that a specific case with a particular adversary is unacceptable. Quite another to outlaw the entire digital economy here in the United States. We're not just talking about social media and advertising but also Amazon, Walmart, all the large financial institutions and credit card processors, transportation companies, schools, even your local property tax and voter registration databases, etc.
I think we can force a sale of TikTok without falling down the slippery slope.
Maybe there's a market in financial services for boutique firms that go back to paper and file cabinets.
"The argument against China spreading disinformation is a red herring"
If spreading of disinformation was an issue, all the log cabin virologists here would be in trouble
That is not, in fact, "the central question." There are two separate and independent justifications advanced by Congress for this law.
1) China using TikTok to spread propaganda.
2) China acquiring user data.
Which of the two is more troublesome?
Correct.
The issue with TikTok is not free speech. It's (hostile) foreign control of a social media company.
The First Amendment is not implicated. I'm not saying we should be unconcerned about whether it is. The Bill of Rights does not automatically apply to non-US persons. US persons do not have a First Amendment right to have foreign controlled social media companies be allowed to operate in the United States.
Which question is more pertinent?
1) Did the USSR have a First Amendment right to publish a newspaper?
2) Did the Rosenbergs have a First Amendment right to communicate sensitive information to the USSR?
The answer to the first question is unnecessary to address the law at hand. The answer to the second question is absolutely necessary. If the Rosenbergs didn't have a right to use their speech to harm American security, then TikTok probably shouldn't be able to hide behind the First Amendment either.
Obviously the first is more pertinent, since TikTok is not arguing in favor of the second.
The law addresses TikTok's obligation to communicate sensitive information to an enemy that has actively sought exactly this kind of information to use against us in a potential conflict. See the hacks of the AT&T, Verizon, etc. for examples.
If TikTok fails to address this argument adequately (or at all), that doesn't mean the issue isn't pertinent. Actually, that would make me wonder if Beijing has prohibited TikTok from answering those charges adequately.
Beijing has insisted in the past that TikTok can't sell its property if the app is banned. So, the idea that they're boxed in by Beijing in answering certain arguments isn't exactly outlandish. Their silence might even be evidence of how thoroughly controlled TikTok is by the CCP.
Question: to what extent is a foreign owned company entitled to any rights other than which the US allows it to have? Is the US limited to actions only when it is deemed a national security issue, or can it simply declare that, for whatever reason, we don’t want X company (no pun) selling products or services to Americans?
That's my question as well. And why has there been no action against Temu, or any other potentially popular Chinese app that Americans would use? The entire law came off as a bill of attainder.
HamHom?
So that's where Artie went.
Nobody showed enthusiasm for his New Age church, so he drifted to a more established one.
This seems right, and it's basically how I've been viewing the issue.
The strict scrutiny problem seems to be which interest we're talking about. If it's data privacy, then there are less restrictive alternatives (or at least there's not yet clear proof that less restrictive alternatives won't work, which is the same thing).
If it's trying to stop China from influencing our public discourse and undermining our democracy, then there's clearly no less restrictive alternative to divestment. What's weird about this case is that you could have a statute that plausibly survives strict scrutiny while still burdening legitimate expression on a massive scale. That's not necessarily a problem under existing doctrine, but it give me pause.
I don't necessarily disagree with the analysis, but I'm not sure that I like where it leads. If China owned a company that owned the Washington Post, could Congress seek to prevent publication of the Pentagon Papers under threat of divestment?
There's a flaw in this ointment:
Let's rephrase that:
And if that sounds silly, try it with the EU, fining American Big Tech companies billions.
Anything can be justified when the goal is preserving bureaucracy.
The phrase "under the thumb of" is glossing over huge diffwerences here. If Facebook and Youtube were under the control of America in the same way that Tiktok is under the control of China, then yes, the EU should ban them.
So Europe should ban the Voice of America app?
(I checked ... there is one!)
Actually, you're glossing over the "hostile" part.
Not every foreign government is judged to be that. We are allied in one form or another with most of Europe.
Congress did some work here, explaining/justifying why it views Chinese government control as hostile. This is not something directly transferable to any other country, absent additional lawmaking. No arbitrary executive orders.
Maybe the US shouldn't have imposed an oil embargo on Imperial Japan in 1941. Why shouldn't oil producers have been allowed to sell their product to any willing customer?
We're doing an awful lot of trade with a hostile country.
Your refusal to recognize government hypocrisy is not my problem.
Your focus on the 1941 oil embargo does not speak highly of your historical knowledge, such as the racist snub of Japan at the Versailles conference, California's racist laws in 1924, or Japan's own racist attitudes towards China, Korea, and everybody else. Then there's the US imperialism which hoovered up the Philippines, Guam, Puerto Rico, and several other islands, or overthrew Hawaii's queen, or forced Japan to open its doors to international trade in 1854, partly in reaction to all the good bits of China being hoovered up by Europeans, which is mostly what spooked Japan into shutting its doors following 1600 and persecuting the Christians who were trying to overthrow their government.
Governments, top to bottom. Governments are the evil, from the inside to the outside.
We ARE doing an awful lot of trade with a hostile country. It started out on the theory that, if they modernized their economy, they'd become less free. By the time it was obviously not true, a lot of people were hooked on cheap products made with slave labor and little in the way of environmental protection.
And, of course, they'd used the revenue to buy a lot of people's loyalties.
Why in the world would I need to talk about those other (bad) things, which have nothing to do with my point of labeling another government hostile? Japan was rampaging across Asia throughout the 1930s. Our oil embargo was entirely justifiable. They don't deserve a pass because we were mean to them at Versailles or in California.
There's nothing remarkable about trading with hostile countries. People like making money. Lenin said something about rope...
Ironically, it turns out that Facebook and Twitter were somewhat under the thumb of the US government for a while. But that control was mostly about domestic issues, not trying to manipulate public opinion.
*foreign public opinion.
Certainly was about controlling domestic opinion, in the name of controlling misinformation.
Some thoughts:
1. Hamas could create a web version of HamHom, hosted, say, in Saudi Arabia. Maybe with internet connectivity provided by Saudi Telecom Company? Google appears to connect directly with STC, via JEDIX. **Would this mean Google is now providing material support to Hamas**?
2. TikTok and HamHom *apps* could be sideloaded onto any reasonable (that is, non-i) phone. With the apps distributed via the same website. Nobody is proposing banning this.
3. But the only reason TikTok remains popular is that they pay content creators. Why can't we just block the payments? This seems not to implicate the first amendment at all. Or is this more complicated than it seems?
4. China buys and steals vast quantities of information on US citizens. Assuming they don't collect location data via TikTok (and when I installed TikTok it didn't ask for any special permissions), I doubt that what they do collect is worth much in the overall scheme.
"But the only reason TikTok remains popular is that they pay content creators. Why can't we just block the payments? This seems not to implicate the first amendment at all. Or is this more complicated than it seems?"
I would say so. Would forbidding the NYT paying reporters raise 1A concerns?
"Assuming they don't collect location data via TikTok"
If China wanted to do something they didn't want the US govt to know about, they would not ask for permission. I am assuming China has the ability to write code for the next update that can bypass security measures on phones such as "do you give permission to..."
" I am assuming China has the ability to write code for the next update that can bypass security measures on phones such as "do you give permission to...""
Not unless there is a bug in the operating system. Which are not unknown, of course, but with the right bugs in the OS, the hackers can run amok on your phone w/o installing an app at all.
In fact they do - hackers from China, hackers from Russia, for profit hackers from everywhere, etc. It's fair to say we have a big cybersecurity problem, but banning one particular app seems like blocking off one slot in a picket fence.
Whether a foreign group are terrorists or freedom fighters, enemies or allies or something in between, is entirely up to the political branches and no business of the courts. Whether the foreigners who own the network are terrorists or not does not affect the contstitutional analysis in the slightest. And it affects the legal outcome only if Congress has chosen to put the distinction into a statute, as they did in the example. (In some cases it would depend on the President’s view.)
Foreigners outside US territory lack First Amendment rights, and therefore cannot assert a First Amendment claim.
The plaintiffs in Holder were US citizens. Holder is therefore irrelevant. It’s like trying to apply Due Process cases to fetuses and pretending the Court never held that fetuses lack Due Process rights.
Interesting - I hope to comment a few thoughts a bit later.
Sidenote, but do you think the Court's silence today suggests that no preliminary or administrative injunction will be coming and that the Court is instead working to quickly draft an opinion on the merits before the 19th? After all, if the Court were inclined to buy itself some extra time, I would expect it to issue an injunction sooner rather than later. Doing so would only require a short order of a few paragraphs that could easily have been drafted by today.
If so, this also strikes me as a potential sign that the Court is just drafting a short per curiam opinion to affirm. Any judgment to reverse would likely require more time.
Obviously just speculation on my part though. Anyone agree or disagree?
"protecting us against Chinese power isn't the same as the interest in combating foreign terrorist, it seems to me that it's at least as great in magnitude" -- but it's not. Protecting us from forcible takeover by China is. Protecting us from being messaged by China isn't. It's very paternalistic to say that adults need protection from being messaged by anyone.
Sure, and if it were just about China sending messages to Americans, you'd have a point.
I wish somebody would explain why the law had two prongs to begin with. It seems "foreign intelligence data gathering" would be enough to shut it down. Why add propaganda at all?
I don't use TikTok, but I resent the government telling me what I can and can't read/view on the internet. Although foreign companies may not have the 1A right to publish something, as a US citizen I have the right to read what they've published. Or at least I should.
Seems to me that the court is about to carve out a fairly substantial exception to the first amendment for no actual practical result.
And I say no actual practical result because ByteDance will cut a deal with the incoming Trump administration to stifle enforcement of the ban, where "cut a deal" is a euphemism for "bribe".
I sometimes suspect a good deal of Trump’s foreign policy consists of various efforts to hit people, companies, and countries up for bribes of one sort or another. Sudden shifts from opposition to support, which have not been infrequent, mean the efforts have been successful.
I have yet to understand how the simple, straightforward, and absolute language of the First Amendment is so easily ignored by the Supreme Court. "No law" would seem to me to exclude any and all laws abridging speech/press rights for those outside the US as well as inside.
Well, you might want to start by considering that the "simple, straightforward, and absolute" 1A language does not say, "Congress shall make no law restricting speech."
Eugene's analysis seems solid as far as it goes, but gives rise to other questions.
1. Does it matter if a declared foreign terrorist org really commits terrorism? Can an accused material supporter defend by challenging the designation? I would argue that yes, anyone so restricted is entitled to due process in our courts.
2. Under what conditions is a foreign country an enemy? Can the President or the State Dept. determine that by just saying it is or isn't? (I would argue that ino country is our enemy until Congress declares war on them.)
3. Can a firm, or a software product, justify such a ban by deploying spyware? I would argue that it can. And it seems to me that the ban should therefore extend to Huawei equipment and to Zoom software.