The Volokh Conspiracy
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Is Congress A "Backstop"?
[Note: This is the tenth and hopefully the last – at least for now; we won't promise that we won't ever write more on this topic! – in a series of essays responding to objections that have been made to enforcing Section Three of the Constitution. The first nine essays can be found here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.]
Since last fall, when our article The Sweep and Force of Section Three was accepted for publication by the University of Pennsylvania Law Review and first posted on SSRN, we have received further comments and suggestions about the draft and taken them into consideration as we have gone through the editing process. As noted at the outset of this series, none of these comments has led us to reconsider and change our core substantive propositions in a major way. As the article goes to press in the next few weeks, it remains very close in substance to the versions from last fall. (We are grateful for all the comments and suggestions, and especially thank all who identified errors in the manuscript.)
We have made just one more meaningful substantive change since September, which we wish to note publicly before the article is published. Though the article is set to appear in print sometime this month, it might not beat the Supreme Court's decision in Trump v. Anderson to press. Indeed, it is a small irony that even though our article was written and posted before these lawsuits were filed (and with no contemplation of immediate litigation) the Supreme Court might nonetheless win the race to publication, leaving some aspects of our article potentially overtaken by events. (We would strongly resist, however, any notion that a law review article becomes "moot" in consequence of a Supreme Court decision! Our views remain our views, and remain correct, or not, whether the Supreme Court embraces them, or not.)
At all events, if we do not mention a substantive change in the content of the article now, nobody might ever notice it. (Or, equally troubling, people might notice and think we surreptitiously altered the manuscript, just before publication, to take account of the Court's decision.)
The change occurs beginning in the place of the draft that occupies pages 32-33 of the version now posted on SSRN. We are discussing the various situations in which different governmental actors might possess duties or powers that provide occasion for application of Section Three as a legal rule. In the course of considering certain "Special Situations" (p. 29), we consider who all might have authority to enforce Section Three with respect to the constitutional ineligibility of an individual for the office of President of the United States. We argue that state election officials, courts, and presidential electors all have the responsibility to faithfully apply Section Three's constitutional disqualification rule, each within the sphere of its respective powers and duties under state or federal law.
We then turn to this question: Does the Twelfth Amendment (and relevant federal law), by providing for a joint session of Congress in which the votes of electors for President and Vice President, transmitted sealed to the seat of government, are then opened and counted, implicitly confer upon Congress authority not to count votes cast for a candidate who is constitutionally ineligible by virtue of Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment.
In the version of the article posted on SSRN, we stated categorically that the answer was No: Congress possesses no power to reject on substantive grounds votes actually cast by electors (as opposed to a power to determine the authenticity of the submitted votes; that is, whether the votes to be counted were actually the votes cast by the electors of the state).
While we have not changed our ultimate conclusion – we still believe that the better answer is that Congress currently lacks a substantive power to evaluate the propriety of votes cast by electors – we have changed the level of certainty with which we express this conclusion. And we have also set forth at greater length the competing arguments on both sides. We have become persuaded by many discussions that the argument for an implied power of the joint session of Congress to decline to count electoral votes cast for a constitutionally disqualified candidate is at least plausible, even though we ultimately disagree with it.
Here is how the text of our article now reads on this point, as scheduled for publication sometime very soon. (We have omitted the footnotes):
If the voters and presidential electors do select a constitutionally disqualified candidate for the Presidency, does Congress have the power –perhaps even the duty – to reject such a candidate when the votes of electors are counted in joint session called for by the Twelfth Amendment? This is an unsettled question and we are, candidly, not sure of the answer.
On the one hand, the text of the Twelfth Amendment does not in terms confer a power on the joint session of Congress to judge the propriety, legal or otherwise, of the votes cast by electors. The responsibility to count the votes cast is not cast in terms of a power to judge the validity of such votes. Indeed, even the role of counting is formulated in a (very) passive voice: "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted." This is hardly the language of affirmative power to judge, evaluate, or decide. It contrasts rather sharply with the Article I power of each house of Congress to "Judge of the Elections, Returns, and Qualifications" of "its own Members." Further, the Twelfth Amendment specifically limits Congress's role in selection of the President to the power of the House of Representatives to "choose immediately, by ballot, the President," from the three persons receiving the highest number of votes, only "if no person have such majority [of the votes of the whole number of Electors appointed]." To the extent a power to judge the constitutional validity of votes submitted by electors might verge on a practical power of the joint session to select the President be selective counting of votes, it subtly infringes on the Twelfth Amendment's constitutional design.
On the other hand, perhaps such a power to enforce Section Three's disqualification can be inferred from constitutional structure and history. The argument would go like this. Because Section Three is binding on all officials exercising powers or duties that involve questions of election to, appointment to, or continuance in office of persons who are constitutionally disqualified by Section Three from holding such positions. A case can be made that the logic of this principle -- buttressed by the obligation of the oath to the Constitution sworn by the persons exercising duties affected by Section Three -- implies that Congress, sitting in joint session pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, has a constitutional responsibility to refuse to accede to the election of a person for president who is constitutionally disqualified from holding that office. Moreover, another provision of the Constitution, the Twentieth Amendment, is explicit that a disqualified candidate does not become president, even if he has the most votes. It states that at "the time fixed for the beginning of [the President's] term," "if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified." The language thus specifically confirms the possibility of a failure to qualify and specifies the consequences of that failure. If the President-elect is covered by Section Three, he cannot become President--unless Congress chooses (by supermajority votes) to remove Section Three's disability. If this prohibition is not enforced during the counting of the electoral votes in joint session, then when would it be enforced, and by whom?
Moreover, imagine the situation where a presidential candidate receiving a clear majority of votes cast of electors engaged in plainly constitutionally disqualifying acts of insurrection or rebellion between the time when electors cast their votes and the time for beginning his or her term. Again, and even more emphatically, if Congress cannot determine that such a person cannot constitutionally become President, who can? Must Congress nonetheless pliantly accede to the election of such person as President? (Or, as actually happened in 1872, what if a presidential candidate has died between election day and the day prescribed by law for votes of electors to be counted? Must votes for a dead man to be president be counted? In 1872, Congress said no, refusing to count cast votes for Democratic presidential candidate Horace Greeley because he had died between election day and the meeting of the electors.)
Finally, Congress has enacted two statutes, the Electoral Count Act and the Electoral Count Reform Act. These statutes have been on the books for 137 years and assume that Congress has some role, albeit limited, in judging the validity of electoral votes. They would potentially implicate Congress's powers under the "necessary and proper" clause as well. Even if these statutes are constitutional -- that is, even if Congress does have a substantive power to reject votes for a disqualified candidate -- there is an additional question whether the current statutes allow it to do so. (This turns on the meaning of the phrase "regularly given," and we take no position on it here.)
On balance, we are inclined to think the stronger argument is that neither Congress nor the Vice President (acting as President of the Senate) has the authority to evaluate the decisions or actions of the electors themselves (as opposed to perhaps determining the authenticity of submitted votes).
But we confess to some uncertainty here. If the Constitution does not supply a clear, determinate answer, the various branches of government are constitutionally entitled each to exercise their own independent constitutional judgments on the question. Thus, even if state election officials, voters, electors, and the judiciary all support (or acquiesce to) the election of a president barred from holding office by Section Three, there is a serious argument that Congress might act as a last constitutional backstop against the installation of such a constitutionally disqualified person in the presidency.
We think the main effect of this revision is simply not to overstate the certainty of our assertion that the Twelfth Amendment does not give Congress power to judge the substantive propriety of votes cast by electors. The issue is more difficult than we initially thought, and there may be separation-of-powers implications that need to be more fully explored.
* * *
With that, we conclude this series of essays responding to objections made against our interpretation of Section Three, whether on policy or legal grounds. A brief recap (with links to each prior essay):
Our first essay introduced the series, and the reasons for it.
Our second essay responded to the objection that enforcing Section Three would interfere with "democracy."
Our third essay responded to the objection that enforcing Section Three would be too "dangerous."
Our fourth essay responded to the argument that federal criminal prosecution and conviction for insurrection under 18 U.S.C. §2383, is somehow a prerequisite to Section Three's constitutional rule of disqualification.
Our fifth and sixth essays addressed the misuses of legislative history employed by some critics and advocates to suggest that Section Three might not be self-executing, might not apply to the office of President of the United States, or might not apply to insurrections after the Civil War.
Our seventh essay discussed why Section Three issues are not nonjusticiable "political questions."
Our eighth essay addressed the "off ramp" argument that a legally disqualified candidate must nonetheless be placed on the ballot, state law notwithstanding, because Congress theoretically might one day relieve the disability.
Our ninth essay discussed why, in the Trump v. Anderson case, it is significant that there has been a full trial of disputed issues of fact, resulting in findings of fact by a trier of fact.
And in this, our final essay in this series, we explained our current thinking about Congress's powers under the Twelfth Amendment and federal law, acknowledging a greater degree of uncertainty than our posted draft had previously expressed.
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Professor Baude, I heard the SCOTUS 'shout out' during the oral argument yesterday. Nice. It is not every day you get mentioned at SCOTUS. 🙂
Congress must evaluate and investigate every election when there's a large enough question being given to the validity of non-regularly given electors via very unusual election procedures, such as happened in the 2020 election. There was, and still is, a great amount of questionable actions taken 4 years ago, for which, without proper examination, as would have occurred in 2021, the People are taken aback every single day with the repercussions of the decisions made NOT to fully examine what occurred in November 2020.
Your diversion from seeking truth is "criminal and degenerate" to our system of Self-Government. Your political practice of law is shameful.
I see you've avoided that particular problem by omitting the "law" part...
@Professor Volokh...Is there a way that VC can collate the collected essays here from Professor Baude and make a 'sticky'?
I just want to say that reading through this series of essays that systematically went through all the different arguments from Professor Baude was really insightful. These are the reasons I come here. Thank you.
I don't think I've ever seen someone flog a dead duck before.
Dead duck flogging levels of doggedness is rewarded in academia. Explains some things about prof Somin, eh?
Will you provide an index to your posts? They need the same kind of overview that Josh Blackman provided, with titles and links for the whole body of work.
Now I see a little index at the end of your post, but your work needs a better version that has titles, includes your materials outside this series of ten posts, and isn’t buried at the end of something else.
Though the article is set to appear in print sometime this month, it might not beat the Supreme Court's decision in Trump v. Anderson to press.
I suggest the Supreme Court might be wise to postpone a decision on Trump v. Anderson for a very long time—perhaps until late summer or early autumn. Political happenstance looms as the great risk the oral argument could not properly account for. With a decision now, the Court risks not only a decision confounded by happenstance, but also risks turning itself into an agent driving malign happenstance it could not predict.
The longer the Court can wait, the better the chance that it can tailor a wise decision to suit the nation's critical need, which might be quite different in October than it appears to be now. It would be both a blunder for the Court, and a tragedy for the nation, to rush unnecessarily to a decision now, if that turned out only to empower a repeat coup attempt which succeeded.
The oral argument made clear that the Court worried most of all about finding some way out of deciding the election itself. Waiting to see if the legal system decides it otherwise, on the basis of Trump's criminal trials, seems the very best off ramp the Court has available.
That's crazy. It's a Presidential election. We need to know if soon as possible. If Trump were disqualified, the Republicans have an absolutely legitimate interest in having time to replace him, and even the Democrats have an interest in knowing who they are running against.
Dilan, agreed, of course. But not if you, or more importantly the justices, take that to mean the Supreme Court is somehow disbarred from disqualifying Trump next week, to fulfill the responsibility for timely notice you mention.
I listened to the oral arguments. They were clear as a bell that disqualification for Trump was off the table before the questioning started. All the Supreme Court was looking for was an excuse to get the case off its docket without seeming to influence the election outcome.
The entire point of Section 3, of course, is to exert deciding influence on elections in relevant cases. Not a hint of interest about that from the Court.
The Court apparently intends to shirk its responsibility now, instead of delivering notice now. My advice is simply to delay, and hope something turns up to take that unwanted responsibility from them, before they have to resort to the illegitimate step to rewrite the Constitution, which they are not empowered to do.
They aren't rewriting the constitution they are leaving it up to Congress. At least as far as the procedures for disqualification go.
See the discussion between Kavanaugh and Mitchell about Sea Clammers preemption (1981). From Sea Clammers:
"In the absence of strong indicia of a contrary congressional intent, it must be concluded that Congress provided precisely the remedies it considered appropriate."
So to paraphrase in Section 3, Section 5 context:
In the absence of strong indicia of a contrary congressional intent, "it must be concluded that Congress provided precisely the remedies it considered appropriate" when it enacted 18 USC 2383.
Really Lathrop you really have to focus, you've been railing for months that Trump should be charged with Treason, but somehow if the court rules the only possible path forward is indictment for insurrection its rewriting the constitution?
Kazinski, you say the Supreme Court will leave it to Congress on January 6 to decide whether to overturn the election results? Sorry, I don't think they will do that, and I don't buy that you think that.
I wouldn't say that's all they were looking for at all. The texture of the questioning also suggested a very clear priority of making sure this particular flavor of political lawfare doesn't cross their docket again.
"Our views remain our views, and remain correct, or not, whether the Supreme Court embraces them, or not.)"
Quite the ego you've got there.
That's just a rejection of legal 'realism', he does admit the possibility that his views might be wrong, he's just asserting that it's independent of whether the Court agrees with them.
Which is a quite reasonable stance. The Court is just as capable of being wrong as Baude is.
I agree. Professor Baude made his argument(s). He is confident he is right. Ok.
I learned a lot from reading the essays.
Unless there is evidence Baude is conflicted to a substantial fraction of the level of involvement compromising the Thomases, that comparison is inapt and unfair.
Did you miss the 'or not' in his statement?
I guess so. My bad.
"implicitly confer upon Congress authority not to count votes cast for a candidate"
NO.
You can't spend four years saying that Mike Pence didn't have the authority to do something and then turn around and say that Kamela Harris *does* have it. If there is anything to come out of the frat party gone wild, it is that the ONLY thing Congress can do is count -- and count ALL the state returns.
If the victor is thrown out by Congress, you will have a REAL insurrection inevitably followed by a "Bloody Sunday" and at least a generation of "Troubles" -- just like Northern Ireland. IF the country even survived...
What Bin Laden knew was that if you shoot down a fuel-laden airplane, the wreckage will fall to the ground in a mile-long flaming debris trail. In DC that is Black neighborhoods. Think that won't stir things up???
That last paragraph just came out of the blue. Sheesh.
I do agree that you can't spend 4 years saying that Pence simply couldn't do something, and then turn on a dime and say Harris can.
Not that they won't try it if Trump wins the election.
But it was rather disappointing to see Baude start to become open to that. Man, he really does hate Trump with a distorting passion, doesn't he?
The racism at the Volokh Conspiracy -- like the transphobia, homophobia, xenophobia, misogyny, and other flavors of conservative bigotry -- is never far from the surface.
(How many times has the Volokh Conspiracy published racial slurs so far this year (fewer than six weeks)?
___ none -- come on, this is 2024 and this is an academic blog
___ one - everybody slips occasionally, even the least bigoted
___ two -- but it's not a big deal, right?
___ three to five -- OK, it's getting to be a genuine issue . . .
___ five to ten -- this can't be right, can it?
___ more than ten -- no wonder UCLA has had enough)
Carry on, bigoted clingers.
The correct answer is five to ten racial slurs (in six weeks, ahead of last year's pace of nearly one per week) . . . but it's early afternoon, so that number could change by the end of the day.
Carry on, "colorblind" and racial slur-hurling clingers.
Congress has the power to enforce the 14th amendment; that might be taken as the power to refuse to count electoral votes for a candidate disqualified by section 3. It is hard to imagine that coming to pass; that Trump could win the election but Democrats (there don't appear to be many Trump opponents in the Republican party) win sufficient numbers in House and Senate to exercise that power.
In 2021, there was no reason for Congress to act; they considered and decisively rejected the objections to electoral votes from two states.
In no case would the Vice President have any power to reject electoral votes.
The bizarre final paragraph seems to be a new method of killing advocated by Dr. Ed 2, seemingly aimed at dropping flaming wreckage from an airplane on Washington DC.
How does Congress usually enforce amendments? By sending the House Bailiff to do it?
No, they generally enforce amendment by enacting laws.
The argument is that they have done so here, by enacting the federal insurrection statute.
Which is a criminal law, which imposes criminal punishment. The disqualification part of 2383 is probably redundant: a convicted insurrectionist is likely to be in prison, not running for office.
Speaking of which, the disqualification clause of 2383 also uses the phrase, "office under the United States", which we all now understand to not apply to the President...
...which means that no President could ever be disqualified under either the 14th Amendment or 2383.
Where's the stick?
"which we all now understand to not apply to the President…"
65 year old memory, and maybe I wasn't listening to the oral argument as closely as I might; Did the majority of the Justices seem to buy into that? I don't recall that happening.
All along I've said that I think the "officer under" argument is non-frivolous, but that I didn't think it was a winning argument. I still don't think it's a winning argument.
They enacted the Electoral Count Act, which provides for Congress to decide disputed electoral slates. They choose who acts as President if the President and Vice President are not chosen or qualified. Note that they don't have to pass legislation to the current President as part of the January 6th electoral vote counting process.
If you're referring to Section 5, Congress has the power to enforce the 14th amendment through appropriate legislation, which not counting the votes on J6 is not.
> You can’t spend four years saying that Mike Pence didn’t have the authority to do something and then turn around and say that Kamela Harris *does* have it.
He said "Congress", not "the vice president by themselves".
Another reason for the Court to postpone a Trump V. Anderson decision until much later in the election process:
A decision now to green light a Trump candidacy will, inevitably, amount to an untoward impairment, if not complete practical extirpation for Section 3. Inability now to imagine an appropriate use for Section 3 cannot properly be treated as justification for the Court acting on its own to write Section 3 out of the Constitution. The Court should do what it can to avoid that.
Waiting on a final decision in Trump's case is one thing the Court can do. Circumstances may change along the way, and deliver a set of facts that better suit reconsideration on the basis of Section 3. For instance, Trump might yet be criminally convicted, lose the popular vote unambiguously, and contest a close result in the electoral college—where he appears also to have lost, perhaps amidst credible looking charges that his confederates rigged election processes in key states. Trump might once again summon his mobs to Washington, once again to intimidate Congress with an eye to seize power for himself. It could be that in such a scenario, the Court would find reason to reconsider whether Section 3 is a workable, necessary, and proper constitutional power.
If the Court writes a decision now, it will of course attempt to justify itself with arguments which undermine Section 3 as a useful constitutional tool. How could it be otherwise?
Delay is a practical alternative choice the Court could make. Delay would enable Section 3 to remain viable for use at least during the continuation of a present constitutional crisis the Court itself seems reluctant to end now. To write a decision now to circumvent Section 3 could come back all too soon to hamper the Court in changed circumstances before Inauguration Day.
Even if this present crisis gets resolved somehow, and the nation finds itself back on more accustomed political footing, there is no guarantee that some crisis requiring use of Section 3 might not arise out of other causes in the future. For that reason too, this Court should do everything it can to avoid writing Section 3 out of the Constitution by too hastily making a restrictive precedent.
Delaying now on a decision is one of the best things the Court can do. The Trump emergency could end itself in various ways which would not require the Court to have decided now. If that happened, the Court would not have to decide at all. That would be a wiser, more conservative constitutional outcome than anything the Court can deliver with a prompt decision.
"A decision now to green light a Trump candidacy will, inevitably, amount to an untoward impairment, if not complete practical extirpation for Section 3."
Lathrop, it's perfectly possible for the Court to spike what Colorado is doing, prevent other states from doing the same, and not make Section 3 unenforceable.
All they have to do is, as I've suggested, declare that federal insurrection law is Section 3 enabling legislation, and occupies the field. Until Congress changes the law, the only route to enforce Section 3 would be via a federal prosecution for insurrection.
This doesn't even require them to rule out a priori civil process. The 1870 enforcement act provided for quo warranto actions initiated by federal officers, it was merely repealed back in 1948. Congress could reenact such a statute if it wished.
No disaster. The DOJ could indict Trump for insurrection if it's so damned clear he's guilty. They could have done it any time in the last 3 years.
Most likely they didn't because the legal case for him being guilty of insurrection is a real loser, and politically, the last thing they wanted was him outright acquitted.
All they have to do is, as I’ve suggested, declare that federal insurrection law is Section 3 enabling legislation, and occupies the field.
Bellmore, I get there is no point talking to you about that. For the bystanders, Bellmore's demand spikes Section 3. It begins with a civil disability, and substitutes a criminal standard as condition for disqualification. Bellmore's demand would thus illegitimately rewrite the Constitution.
The framers of the 14A did not intend disqualification for insurrectionists to be a high bar. They intended removing the disability to be a high bar.
Bellmore demands to make the initial disqualification step more difficult even than the removal step—Bellmore demands proof beyond a reasonable doubt. Bellmore imagines a Supreme Court with power to impose constraint on the sovereign People. It is a notion which turns American constitutionalism upside down.
Normal American constitutionalism empowers the People to make election decisions at pleasure, without any constraint at all, save the constraints they decide upon in advance, and decree in the Constitution. Section 3 of the 14A is one of those, decided and decreed more than a century and a half ago. Bellmore wants the Supreme Court to read it out of the Constitution.
Bellmore, I get there is no point talking to you about that. For the bystanders, Bellmore’s demand spikes Section 3. It begins with a civil disability, and substitutes a criminal standard as condition for disqualification. Bellmore’s demand would thus illegitimately rewrite the Constitution.
No, he wrote that Congress, pursuant to its Section 5 authority, repealed the 1870 civil procedure that was previously enacted for enforcing Section 3.
Right, and if Congress wanted, as I said, they could reenact that procedure. But until they do, the only avenue they've enacted for Section 3 enforcement is a criminal trial in federal court.
That would have been impractically laborious after the Civil war, given the number of insurrectionists you'd be dealing with. Today? Perfectly feasible, there is no logistic obstacle to affording those accused of insurrection the full measure of due process.
Once again: that's wrong. You've never read the statute. Quo warranto is a common law remedy and does not need legislation to enable it. The 1870 act made it mandatory for the appropriate officials to use that procedure for ineligible people.
Its not too late for Jack Smith.to.try Trump insurrection, both lead counsels agreed that 2383 is indeed good law and could be used to bar a candidate from taking office if he was convicted, with a couple of caveats, Mitchell isnt ready to concede the Presidential immunity question, and it assumes the officers question is resolved to cover Trump. However I don't see how the officers question can keep Trump from being charged, or convicted of Insurrection.
I don't think it could. At most, it could be the basis for a legal challenge to the disqualification, on the basis that Section 3 doesn't authorize it, making it an unconstitutional additional qualification for office. And I wouldn't give that particular argument good odds of prevailing in the Court, though I wouldn't totally rule it out.
See page 54 of the.transcript:
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: — a new statute in addition to 2383. And just to be clear, under 2383, you agree that someone could be prosecuted for insurrection by federal prosecutors and, if convicted, could be or shall be disqualified then from office? MR. MITCHELL: Yes. But the only caveat that I would add is that our client is arguing that he has presidential immunity. So we would not concede that he can be prosecuted for what he did on January 6th under 2383. JUSTICE KAVANAUGH: Understood. ”
So if Mitchell concedes to Kavanaugh that even though he is reserving the “officers” issue, and the immunity issue (that they just lost at the appeals court level) that 2383 is the the proper vehicle for prosecution, I don’t see there is much of an escape route if Trump is charged under 2383, and he finally loses the.immunity claim.
The “officers” issue could save Trump from disqualification, but not conviction of Insurrection, prison, etc.
Well, I mean, technically, if saving him from disqualification led to him being reelected President, he could zero out the prison, etc, by pardoning himself. He'd just have to get elected first.
Really, why have they NOT charged him? It's not like he'd face a sympathetic jury in DC, after all, and they've had years to do it.
Because the case for him being guilty of insurrection, more than figuratively, was incredibly weak. And if they tried him and he was acquitted, (Possibly on appeal, given that it's DC...) that would largely terminate all attempts to disqualify him.
Because, sure, in principle you could claim disqualification was just civil, and a criminal acquittal doesn't foreclose civil penalties. But the political optics of trying that would be impossibly bad.
So they left to door open for what CO did by not charging him.
Now, if the Supreme court rules in Trump's favor, as seems likely? Yeah, they'll probably suddenly charge him with insurrection, as their last shot at stopping him legally before they move on to extra-legal actions.
You'll have to ask Jack Smith.
I can almost guarantee there won't be an additional 2383 charge. Not likely that decision would change your mind about the "conspiracy", of course...
If they don't respond to state level disqualification being shut down by indicting Trump under 2383, that will underscore what a loser that prosecution would be, that they couldn't even try it as a last ditch thing.
I agree, if for no other reason than it's way too late to shift gears like that and still have a trial before the election.
Actually I doubt the case for criminally trying Trump for insureection is strong enough to go to trial.
They'd have to show that Trump not only incited the crowd to riot and shut down Congress, But that's what he intended.
As I've already posted the timeline shows that the Capitol breech started 17 minutes before Trump spoke the fight like hell lines, and an hour before anyone who heard Trump say those words could have arrived at the capitol.
There just isn't anyway to show cause and effect. And no better evidence has been even hinted at.
The insurrection Trump allegedly engaged in isn't "the riot", as you well know.
But why do you suggest that only those within physical earshot of Trump's speech could have known what he had said?
Disasterbation.
Again, "seize power for himself". The remaining 350 million Americans will throw up their hands and say, "I guess dictatorship now. Oh well."
Instead of the police rounding them up as criminals.
You must exaggerate.
Our authors go from this actual question: “If the voters and presidential electors do select a constitutionally disqualified candidate for the Presidency, does Congress have the power to reject such a candidate”, spend several paragraphs in the brambles, and finally get to this rhetorical question: “if Congress cannot determine that such a person cannot constitutionally become President, who can?”
Let’s boil this down: the argument is Congress can reject someone who IS disqualified, provided he or she HAD BEEN disqualified by themselves. It’s a complete circle.
Talk about going from the frying pan to the fire! It’s not just anti-democratic, but anti-judicial, anti-federalist, and not even logical.
Bah. For all our sakes, can everyone please take a break and go fishing for a month before any more of this? We’ve firmly entered the zone of the surreal.
Too much legal mumbo jumbo for me. Do law professors get paid by the word to obfuscate?
What I heard yesterday at oral arguments: * section 3 applies to holding office, not running for office. Alito made this point a few times with the support of at least 6, maybe seven, other justices.
* ergo, Congress has the power to disqualify electors and their votes if the electors vote for someone disqualified. idk what other people learned in their civics class, but this was the whole point of having electors in the first place, because the Framers did not trust direct democracy. Thank god mine was taught by a Franciscan Brother who had time for god but no time for shit or mumbo jumbo, and not a lawyer.
It's a fundamental issue with language. Language is imprecise; the law strives for precision. This mismatch is why you see jargon, stilted language, and dense walls of text.
It is not some evil lawyer trick. Well, not most of the time.
Making him lose because one or two purple states took it upon themselves to decide for the nation as a whole is bad enough.
Kicking the can down the road until he has his hand on the Lincoln Bible and someone runs up and says, “Wait! He can’t actually take office!” will be so much better for the nation.
Once the EC have spoken, any determination that he's disqualified would apparently invoke the 20th amendment.
"If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified."
Even if Trump were construed to be disqualified, or even convicted of insurrection, this wouldn't mean his VP, elected at the same time, would be disqualified. So he'd become acting President, per the Constitution.
If Congress lifted the disqualification by a 2/3 vote, Trump could then assume office, but there's no provision to put anybody in his place save his VP if that didn't happen.
Yeah but under the standards of a Congress that would disqualify Trump for Insurrection, his VP would have provided him aid and comfort, so they could be disqualified too.
Note also this complication to any notion that Congress might serve as a, "backstop." The supposedly, "backstop," Congress will be composed differently after the election. Nobody can predict what that composition will look like. It is likely, however, to include at least a few members who were actually co-conspirators with Trump in his coup attempt.
Some of those could be deserving of prosecution themselves. Some could even be criminal defendants by that time. It would be an especially dangerous goad to civil unrest if any such compromised bloc ended up the swing vote to decide some critical backstop decision on who becomes president.
It's a goad to civil unrest if the attempt to disqualify a Presidential candidate who was elected by the people fails because the people at the same time elected a majority in Congress opposed to it?
You're really reaching for an excuse to toss the result, not just of the Presidential election, but Congressional, too. Is there any point at which the public have a say in the matter, once you personally have decided an insurrection took place?
The voters could elect a Congress in which 2/3 of each House would vote to remove the disability. Most likely they elect a Congress too cowardly to restrain a Trump dictatorship in any way. Fairly likely they don't elect Trump at all.
Bellmore, I did not posit a clear congressional majority. I posited a disputed majority, with disputed legitimacy. Not far-fetched, given what we see now.
You posited a majority that was disputed only by opposing partisans. Tautologically, anything somebody disputes is "disputed", but this is weak sauce.
I mean, think, Lathrop! The case for disqualifying Trump is so weak that they've never bothered trying to charge him. The case against any member of Congress would be weaker still. And you'd suggest it be used to override the outcome of a Congressional election, and hand majority control of Congress to the party that lost it in the voting booth?
At the point where somebody seriously tried that, you'd have a popular uprising against the plotters.
I've heard they've charged him with 91 felonies. The insurrection law is rather tautological, and that makes it harder to prove, so they've charged other things. Al Capone committed a lot of crimes even if they only prosecuted him for tax evasion.
I would say that Lathrop is not proposing that any member of Congress was not the one duly elected; only that, in a situation where an insurrectionist wins, it's unlikely that Congress will have become decisive enough to serve as a backstop to prevent a disqualified candidate from becoming President.
Magister, exactly.
And because of that, the consequences of attempting a backstop in Congress ought to be regarded as risking notably more disruption than the consequences of either disqualifying Trump earlier, or letting trial results undermine his election chances, and thus to deliver an unambiguous victory to Trump's opponent.
Note also, an unambiguous victory for some other MAGA candidate, with Trump out of the race earlier, would also deliver a more peaceful outcome. As would the victory of a non-MAGA Republican replacement candidate under the same scenario.
And, of course, a clear-cut victory for Biden, or for any other Democratic candidate who appeared by happenstance would deliver a better, less disruptive outcome than either any congressional backstop, or than a result in which the Supreme Court somehow permits Trump to make it to Election Day without being tried to a verdict—and a sentence if there has been a conviction.
My general point is that in the present moment there are a lot of ways that delay by the Supreme Court can serve the nation better, and with more assurance of peace. The alternative is a choice by the Court to clear the way for Trump to do his worst by issue of a prompt decision. Worse outcomes could be experienced either in terms of more delay which Trump uses to escape trial altogether, or clearing the way for more mischief.
I see no benefit to anyone but Trump if the Court issues a prompt decision that it is within the Court's prerogative to withhold. And I see great public benefit if the Court elects to consider and even reconsider Trump v. Anderson at length, in light of changing circumstances. My fervent hope is that the Supreme Court concludes it has a duty to the nation higher than anything it supposes it owes to candidate Trump.
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That's just the disaffectedness, autism, and delusion talking.
I'm glad Baude and Paulson are up and around after the bruising they took yesterday.
The positions they took in their paper took major hits yesterday, the self executing Section 3, the hypothetical about military officers ignoring the President had Murray scurrying away from the self executing "just is" position under questioning from Goresuch and Alito. The paper's criticisms of Chase's Griffin Decision weren't even mentioned, Kavanaugh seems to think its fully settled law entitled full deference. Sotomayor might be the only vote for their "officers" secret code argument, if it is a secret code then I guess one of the briefs had the code book in an appendix.
I think the final verdict on their paper will be that it was a political hail mary, not a novel or principled exercise in applied constitutionalism.
I don't think Baude and Paulson keep their egos in the Supreme Court agreeing with their scholarship. Just look at the above if you want to be disabused of the idea that they are advocates first.
Academics who see it as a sport exist, but are rarer than you think. Except for at South Texas College of Law.
You on the other hand very much seem to have put your self-image into the Court *disagreeing* with Baude, which is a choice I guess.
Shades of that 'I don't think of you at all' Mad Men scene.
Egos? They've posted TEN blog entries about their theories, most of them shredded yesterday at oral arguments. They're now calling Number Ten the backstop (posted after yesterday's arguments), which was in retrospect the only way Section 3 was self-executing without implementation legislation. Only way if you don't count the criminal insurrection statute. What's ironic about the backstop is that is of the same character as the thing they said absolutely could not happen: the VP not counting an electoral vote. I say same character, because it is, but the difference is not counting the vote of an disqualified candidate is a legitimate reason--I agree this is the correct thing to do. Unlike unfounded claims of voter fraud tainting a given state's electoral votes.
But yes, only other people have egos.
Unfounded claim of voter fraud, unfounded claim of insurrection... It's the exact same thing, only the excuse to do it changes.
Trump and his sycophants made unfounded claims of voter fraud, and did an insurrection to try to prevent the transfer of power. The conclusion of insurrection is well-founded, and the original Colorado court's determination has not been reversed, and did not appear to be of interest to the Supreme Court in oral arguments.
Except we all saw the insurrection on live TV, whereas nobody ever found any evidence of voter fraud. Oh, wait:
https://www.ajc.com/politics/republican-talk-show-host-brian-k-pritchard-faces-voting-fraud-claims/NOWGGF4MSFG33ALU7ZIA73ZQZI/
(Though that wasn't the 2020 election.)
Its hard not to get a little vicarious pleasure out of the drubbing they got yesterday. There was a lot of snide remarks and accusations of bad faith, selective quoting, intentional omissions, etc.
It was a lot like the pleasure you get seeing a defensive back who's been trash talking all week get burned for a couple touchdowns enroute to a blowout loss.
And I expect that this also will end up being rehashed over drinks next time they all get together just like when the WR and DB meet up in the off-season.
Not to mention its been quite good for everyone's careers, and academic profiles and cite counts.
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You profoundly misunderstand how modern legal academia and the mainstream bar view the Federalist Society, movement conservatives, and conservative legal thought. The mainstream views the Volokh Conspirators as disrespected, fringe-inhabiting, bigoted (or bigot-hugging), partisan hacks.
What a fascinating radio program, run with impeccable scholarly standards – the transcript could be transferred to the Yale Law Journal without any omissions and it would fully meet their standards.
Especially this part:
“Obviously, you know, it is hilarious. I will say that, that like the dead girl in your bathtub.”
This is the sort of superior scholarship we only find in our advanced, mainstream, strong scholars.
Not to mention their using the n-word on their own Web site and breezily explaining that that was totally different from other people doing it.
(Of course, you used the word yourself, and then blamed your enemies for your own action.)
Baude seems smart enough to recognize that few of the current Supreme Court's important rulings are likely to have a long shelf life. They're going to make Roe v. Wade look like decrees from the ancients.
If one thing is crystal clear from Trump’s legal strategy so fat, we know for sure that if this ever goes to Congress again, Trump’s attorneys will be arguing that Congress has absolutely no authority to decide the matter, the only way it could possibly have been decided was by states disqualifying Trump from the ballot and/or the US prosecuting, and his having survived those attempts completely settles the matter and totally ties Congress’ hands.
Lawyers argue contradictory things all the time, for the benefit of their client. I don't expect Trump to be consistent. It doesn't mean he's correct. One of the many reasons I've never voted for the guy.
That is, Trump’s attornies will always argue that somebody else is responsinle. At the impeachment trial, they argued that the Senate shouldn’t convict because the courts ought to handle it and will be able to give him a fairer trial. And of course they promptly argued to the courts that the Senate not convicting him invoked double jeapardy and stripped the courts of jurisdiction. In Trump v. Anderson, they argued states can’t handle it because it was Congress’ job. You really think they won’t be arguing to Congresss they can’t handle it because it was the states’ job?
If you don’t think that’s going to happen, if you think Trump’s attorneys won’t simply switch their fingers to point elsewhere, anywhere else, no matter whom they happen to be facing, then I have this great bridge in Brooklyn to sell you at a very good price.
Well, sure, attorneys will argue you didn't kill your parents, AND that as an orphan you deserve mercy. You don't expect somebody's attorneys to argue that they're responsible for something, do you?
You don't pay attorneys to point their fingers at the guy writing their checks.
But, I think that, if it reaches January 6th, 2025, and he's arguing that Congress can't disqualify him, it will be on the basis that the DOJ never convicted him of insurrection, NOT that the states were the ones to do it. Why would his attorneys contradict themselves if they had no particular need to?
“the President of the Senate [Vice President] shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the *votes* shall then be counted…The person having the greatest number of *votes* for President, *shall be the President* [etc].” [emphasis added]
Are ballot markings by the electors in favor of an unqualified person actually "votes"?
That would mean that if the electors mark their ballots for an unqualified person – like Ahnold – then if there’s a majority for him, and the ballots are considered valid despite Ahnold’s lack of qualifications, Ahnold “*shall* be the President.” [emphasis added].
[I was going to give Taylor Swift as an example of someone too young to be President, but judging from Wikipedia, she’ll be the necessary age in December]
Let’s be skeptical of an argument that in given circumstances an unqualified person *shall* be President.
So Congress has to decide, if we’re to avoid a situation in which they’re compelled to violate their oaths or affirmations of office and certify someone as Pres who’s unqualified to be such.