Adam Unikowsky: "Is the Supreme Court Seriously Going to Disqualify Trump? (Redux)"

"The chances are still low, but improving."

An interesting and detailed post, by a very knowledgeable lawyer. There are some parts that I'd likely approach differently (though I say this tentatively, not having focused on the issue myself in as much detailed as others have), but it seems much worth reading. I also hope to link in the coming days to material from others expressing other views [UPDATE: see, e.g., this post linking to two Samuel Moyn articles]. Here's an excerpt from Unikowsky's post (read the whole thing for the detailed analysis):

Now seems to be a good time to revisit my post from the long-ago era of September, in which I pegged the chances of the Supreme Court disqualifying Trump at 10%. In view of this recent development, I'll up the odds to 20%—still low, but not that low. 13-seed-beats-a-4-seed low. Totally within the realm of possibility.

Breaking that down, I'd give a 15% chance that the Supreme Court affirms the Colorado Supreme Court. I'd give an additional 5% chance that the Supreme Court vacates the judgment while leaving the door open to future Section 3 litigation, and then disqualifies Trump in a future case.

And while I'm throwing arbitrary probabilities at the wall, here's my take on the probabilities of how the Supreme Court will dispose of the Colorado case:

• 5%: The Court denies certiorari or the case otherwise goes away before the Supreme Court decides it.
• 40%: The Court reverses the Colorado Supreme Court, holding that, as a matter of law, Trump isn't disqualified under Section 3.
• 40%: The Court vacates the Colorado Supreme Court's decision in a manner that leaves the door open to future Section 3 litigation.
• 15%: The Court affirms the Supreme Court of Colorado.

My reasoning follows, as they say….