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Supreme Court Roundup: Not all History is Created Equal
Bruen directs the proper approach to historical analogue laws in Rahimi.
In a previous post, I wrote about the attempt by Merrick Garland's Justice Department in United States v. Rahimi, set to be argued before the Supreme Court on November 7, to sidestep the controlling "text and history" interpretative methodology described in District of Columbia v. Heller and in New York State Rifle & Pistol Ass'n v. Bruen. Rahimi is the case challenging the facial constitutionality of 18 U.S.C § 922(g)(8), a federal statute that disarms any individual subject to a state domestic violence restraining order (DVRO). In that post, I explained how the Government is contending, contrary to Bruen, that the established rule is that "Congress may disarm persons who are not 'law-abiding, responsible citizens.'" That statement is not just incorrect, but a serious distortion of what Heller actually said.
As it turns out, the Government's recently filed reply brief contains several other important errors about the fundamental principles to be applied when assessing historical analogue laws, which are central to Bruen's methodology. Let's start with an easy one. The Government takes Rahimi to task for allegedly asserting that Bruen limits courts to historical evidence from "near the time of ratification." Here's what Rahimi's brief actually said, after discussing attempts by some courts to boost some dicta in Heller to the level of substantive constitutional law:
[T]he original meaning of the Second Amendment must be determined exclusively using the text and the historical tradition of firearm regulations adopted near the time of ratification—not with assumptions or dicta.
That statement by Rahimi was contrasting the use of actual historical traditions to determine the meaning of the Second Amendment, as opposed to twenty-first century dicta, or assumptions by lower courts regarding what those dicta meant. It was not an attempt to fine tune the period of time with precision.
Yet Rahimi is correct that the time around the adoption of the Bill of Rights must be the principal period to determine the original public meaning of its provisions. Bruen quoted Heller to the effect that "Constitutional rights are enshrined with the scope they were understood to have when the people adopted them," before noting that "The Second Amendment was adopted in 1791…."
The Bruen opinion also quoted approvingly a dissent by then-Judge Kavanaugh: "post-ratification adoption or acceptance of laws that are inconsistent with the original meaning of the constitutional text obviously cannot overcome or alter that text." The six-person Bruen majority also relied on a dissenting statement by Chief Justice Roberts, in Sprint Communications v. APCC Services (2008), that "The belated innovations of the mid- to late-19th-century courts come too late to provide insight into the meaning of [the Constitution in 1787]." The same is true of the Bill of Rights, adopted in 1791.
The Government claims in its brief that "the Court has consulted post-ratification evidence—extending 'through the end of the 19th century'—'to determine the public understanding of' the Amendment." But as Bruen notes, another case made clear that this evidence was reviewed "only after surveying what [the Court] regarded as a wealth of authority for its reading—including the text of the Second Amendment and state constitutions." Bruen continues, "In other words, this 19th-century evidence was 'treated as mere confirmation of what the Court thought had already been established.'" See also Justice Barrett's concurrence in Bruen, quoting Espinoza v. Montana Dept. of Revenue (2020) (a practice that "arose in the second half of the 19th century … cannot by itself establish an early American tradition" informing our understanding of the First Amendment); Mark W. Smith, Attention Originalists: The Second Amendment Was Adopted in 1791, not 1868, Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy Per Curiam (Fall 2022).
So Rahimi is right. A court must look principally to the Founding era to determine the meaning of the Second Amendment. It can look at later evidence only for confirmation, not to change the original understanding.
The Government also has some peculiar notions about the use of analogues for determining historical meaning. The Government accuses Rahimi of arguing that the meaning of the Second Amendment must be discerned "exclusively using * * * firearm regulations." It then argues, citing Heller, that other sources may be used, such as "English history," "analogous provisions in state constitutions," "Second Amendment precursors," "commentary," "case law," and "legislative debates." The Government then complains that "Rahimi gives no reason to ignore those historical sources here…."
Of course he doesn't, because he is not arguing that such sources should be ignored. But here is the key: the tradition of firearms regulation (or lack of regulation) must be established only by constitutions, statutes, ordinances, judicial decisions, or other enactments or decisions that had (or were thought to have) the force of law. It's true that secondary sources may sometimes be relevant to the meaning of the Second Amendment — but only to the extent they discuss firearms regulations (or a lack thereof) that were binding with legal force.
Commentaries, correspondence, newspaper articles, and other secondary sources have relevance only to the extent they describe an enactment or decision that has the force of law (or the absence of one).
For example, Bruen explains that "why" a regulation was imposed is a key part of the historical analysis. A commentary or other non-regulatory source may provide insight into why a particular regulation was adopted. If there is ambiguity in the text of a regulation, a commentary may also provide insight into "how" a regulation restricted the right to keep and bear arms, another key part of the Bruen analysis. Of course, as Bruen also makes clear when discussing Sir John Knight's case and the surety laws, to the extent there is any uncertainty about the scope of a restriction, the restriction will be interpreted in a way more protective of Second Amendment rights.
Neither does Rahimi's application of Bruen create a "regulatory straitjacket" as the Government claims. Congress, to the extent it has jurisdiction under Article I, § 8 of the Constitution, is free to enact a system of preventative justice, provided, of course, there is a distinctly similar analogue at the time of the founding.
So, for example, if the government wanted to adopt a surety system it likely could, assuming Congress had Article I authority. But surety laws cannot support 922(g)(8) as the method of achieving the statutory goal (i.e., the "how") because § 922(g)(8)'s disarmament effect is entirely different than a surety system: in the surety system, no one was disarmed provided the principal undertook a recognizance and sureties (if necessary) were obtained. Section 922(g)(8), by comparison, imposes a total ban on the possession of firearms for any and all lawful purposes including for armed self-defense.
A note about a footnote: Section 922(g)(8) has two subparagraphs, either of which can trigger the arms ban. Subparagraph 922(g)(8)(C)(i) imposes the arms ban if the underlying DVRO contains a finding that the individual poses a "credible threat to the physical safety of such intimate partner or child." Alternatively, subparagraph 922(g)(8)(C)(ii) imposes the ban simply because the individual is restrained by the DVRO from the "use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against such intimate partner or child that would reasonably be expected to cause bodily injury." It does not require that the individual actually used, attempted to use, or threatened to use physical force, or is likely to do any of those things, but only that he or she is restrained from doing so.
In a footnote on page 15 of its reply brief, the Government notes that an amicus brief filed by certain Professors of Second Amendment Law accepts "the validity of Section 922(g)(8)(C)(i) because it 'requires a judicial finding of dangerousness' but reject[s] Section 922(g)(8)(C)(ii) because it does not require a specific finding." The Government disagrees with the professors, arguing that "History and tradition establish legislatures' authority to disarm dangerous or irresponsible categories of persons, and the category of individuals subject to protective orders specifically prohibiting the use of force against partners or children surely qualifies."
That is mistaken. The "category of individuals subject to protective orders specifically prohibiting the use of force against partners or children" does not qualify, because such orders can and frequently do issue against people who are not dangerous. As Judge Ho noted in his concurrence in the Rahimi Fifth Circuit opinion, such orders are commonly issued without any showing of dangerousness in divorce cases, and are sometimes issued against both parties to the divorce. So (C)(ii) is clearly unconstitutional. The Government attempts to backstop this losing argument by asserting that "any defect in subparagraph (C)(ii) would not assist Rahimi because his order included the finding required in subparagraph (C)(i)." That is equally mistaken. Rahimi brought a facial challenge to the statute, so it doesn't matter what was contained in his particular order.
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Not all history is created equal.
Indeed, it's not. And if you want a criticism of the whole "history and tradition" idea, you would be hard placed to do better than this.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37732847/
Direct correlation between sane gun laws and decrease in gun deaths. Trend reverses after 2016 as Halbrook and the 2nd amendment fetishists get to work.
This is the sort of thing that got the CDC defunded, and rightly so.
Look, let me remind you of something important: Rates of violent crime are VERY heterogenous. They vary from place to place by orders of magnitude, and the closer you zoom in, the more variation you see. Chicago doesn't have a high murder rate because they have ten times the rate of gun ownership compared to rural Illinois. The South side of Chicago doesn't have a vastly higher rate of gun ownership than the North side, and they both have the same gun laws.
So, we KNOW, for an absolute fact, that something is driving absolutely huge variations in violent crime rates, variations that utterly dwarf the sort of inter-state variations analyzed here.
In a statistical study you can control for a variable only to the extent that you know it. The more powerful it is relative to the variable you're studying, the more precisely you have to control for it.
Do you not understand that the causes of local variation in violent crime are not known well enough, and to sufficient precision, to control for them in a study like this? Spurious correlations are impossible to avoid when you're studying the effects of a weak variable in the presence of a poorly controlled strong variable.
Essentially this study is trying to measure the gravitational constant in the middle of an earthquake.
Brett, that throws out the whole idea of statistics.
IF you were right the problem would be how do Democrats so unerrignly win in high-crime cities 🙂
27 of Top 30 Crime-Ridden Cities Run by Democrats
No, it doesn't throw out the whole idea of statistics, it just makes clear that statistics requires INFORMATION to legitimately do. Statistics is as much about knowing what you can't know from what you've got, as it is about what you can know.
If you don't have that information, and you insist on doing it anyway, you're engaged in something other than real statistics. Something sometimes known as "sagecraft".
That was why the CDC had their budget cut way back when: Because they were buying sagecraft instead of science. And this 'study' is a classic example of the genre.
It's almost like there is no such thing as climate, only weather.
Which is a silly proposition. Yes, there are details and variances. That does not mean the macro trend is illusory, or that cause and effect are simply unknowable.
"Inflation isn't real because gas prices in my town went down, not up!"
Do you understand the difference between "simply unknowable" and "not knowable with the data you actually have"?
In principle, if you understood the causes of street level differences in violent crime to enough precision, you could control for that factor, and legitimately do the proposed statistical analysis. In reality, that information isn't available, so going through the motions like this anyway is just pretending to do statistics.
Hugh sound like Biden, who crowed after the Brady Bill that did NOTHING
Study Shows Brady Bill Had No Impact on Gun Homicides
https://www.law.virginia.edu/news/200303/study-shows-brady-bill-had-no-impact-gun-homicides
( I have a LOOOONG memory, try it )
https://www.murdermap.co.uk/statistics/homicide-england-wales-statistics-historical/
That source has data for England and Wales going back to the late 19th century.
There are no declines in the UK homicide stats that correlate to gun-control enactments by the UK.
Since the data set includes all kinds of murders, it's not exactly surprising that it doesn't correlate with murders committed just with guns, does it? Why would it?
We keep hearing about how guns are especially evil because they make it so much easier to kill, and to kill in large numbers, than knives, blunt objects, bare hands, poisons, tall buildings and cliffs (for the pushing of victims off of), etc. So if this were true, we'd expect restrictions on guns to lead to clearly observable decreases in total murders. The fact that we don't leads me to suspect that the greater lethality of firearms really isn't that consequential after all.
Garbage work that was discredited and should never have been published. The methodological errors in that study have been extensively discussed. That the article was able to get published is an indictment against the peer-review process.
Unprecedented financing from the gun industry does tend to skew which history is "equal".
The gun industry is a relatively small industry. The Pew foundation alone can outspend them.
Correct. It's a silly argument which relies upon popular innumeracy to have any impact.
The "gun industry" is minuscule when compared with all the other lobbyists conducting "financing", and yet it alone is so corrupting that nothing can stand before it.
Please explain why it's unprecedented?
So the only good fuinding is when you pay money to hurt your cause?? Aren't you smart
"Unprecedented financing from the gun industry does tend to skew which history is “equal”."
That's a classic throwaway line from the anti-gunners. I think "trope" would be a good word to describe it.
So, let's take it apart.
Who is being financed? Are you saying the SCOTUS justices are bribed? Or the media (not likely), of some other persons or entities?
Who is the "gun industry?" SAMMI? The NRA? Individual manufacturers, like Ruger, S&W, Colt, et.al.? All of the above?
How much was the financing, in what period? And how much more was it than previous periods that makes it unprecedented?
I don't expect an answer. Just sayin', and showing how ridiculous that comment is.
The question whether all history is created equal will be answered either of two ways, depending on the objectives of the questioner.
In the first instance, the objective will be to find answers to the simplest of historical questions, “What happened?” That question underlies all of the best efforts to research and write academic history. Note that to ask it, and rely upon it, necessarily excludes most other kinds of questions about the same subject matter. To discover what actually happened demands an investigation open to every possibility, and relies upon a presumption that the passage of history under examination will follow unexpected twists and turns, to arrive at unpredictable destinations. The, “What happened?” kind of history is almost always researched and written to take account of surprises the researcher found without looking for them. Doing it that way necessarily means staying open to a presumption that all history is created equal. Historical information itself does not serve up any criteria to distinguish one historical outcome as greater, more important, or more useful, than any other.
In the second instance, the objective will be to answer what is actually the most common question posed about history by researchers other than academicians. That question is, “What can I find in history to make use of in the affairs about which I take interest today?” In that kind of history, inequality is the norm. Only results preferred by the researcher are entertained. Others are passed over, deemphasized, ignored, or actively suppressed. That kind of history has been the history of America’s gun advocates, including its legal advocates such as Scalia, Clarence Thomas, Kopel, and Halbrook.
In the OP above, Halbrook is trying to explain (and justify) the historical suppressions relied upon by Justice Thomas to make the Bruen decision come out the way he wanted it to. Halbrook neglects to criticize another striking feature of Bruen, which is that Thomas goes on to demand that no other historical methods except his own cherry-picked unequal history methods are to be entertained by the judicial system.
The nation would be wiser to rely upon the first kind of history, and to condemn as dishonest the second kind.
And here we have it, an evidentiary rule that really pulls its weight: Evidence is admissible if it confirms my opinion, and inadmissible if it doesn't.
That stood out for me, too (but for a different reason). It should all be inadmissible.
I asked this in another thread, but I'll put it here again:
Why is the relevant historical time period 1801 and not 1868--the year legislators first required, through the 14th amendment, the states to honor a right to bear arms? For historical analogue purposes, that seems like the proper measuring time period.
Because originalism is a bankrupt method of analysis.
That’s the short answer. The long answer is that real history is hard. And the idea of judges doing real history is laughable. Finally, most “originalism” isn’t actually history, it’s just a cult that attempts to elevate the people that wrote the Constitution a mythical status in order to support one’s policy preference; once seen in that light, it becomes obvious why actual originalism (which would require an inquiry about the time of the passage of the 14th Amendment in terms of any provisions applied to states … because of incorporation) isn’t being used.
ETA- all that said, this case involves a federal law. So it wouldn't matter. But most gun laws ARE NOT federal.
The 14th Amendment, which gave us the anti-discrimination equal protection clause binding the States and eventually incorporated the Bill of Rights onto them, also incorporated racially discriminatory Jim Crow gun control authority, isn’t the winning argument you think it is.
Because by 1868 you had half the states affirmatively setting out to violate the rights of a large fraction of their populations. What part of that don't you understand?
You can't use the Jim Crow period to judge the meaning of a civil right, because a lot of governments during that period were deliberately trying to violate rights!
You're forgetting that the Northern (i.e. winning) states also had gun control. It wasn't just the Black Codes.
Again, that doesn't matter. The Second Amendment did not apply to the states until the passage of the 14th Amendment. Period.
So you can't talk about what the Second Amendment "meant" to state or local laws when the Constitution was passed ... because it didn't mean anything.
Some ancillary points, because I read the linked article in the thread:
1. One key for me is that the 10th amendment reserved power to the states not denied them until 1868. Then the states had to ratify. I don't think the ratifying states believed ratifying the "equal protection" and "due process" amendment was effectively unwinding years of their own then-constitutionally-permitted gun control legislation except to the extent it was discriminatory.
2. This whole exercise exposes the jurisprudential weakness of the "analogous laws" approach. The absence of a legislative need in 1791, 1801, or 1868 is simply not conclusive evidence that the law could never be adopted.
3. Mark Smith is simply wrong when he tries to argue that SCOTUS always interprets the Bill of Rights to grant no further legislative power to states than what the federal government had actually legislated on or before 1791. The first amendment line of cases, especially on religion, shows great development, much of which challenges the express text of the amendment itself.
1. Historically, it doesn’t much matter what the states thought they were doing, because the Southern states, at least, were not given any choice in the matter. They ratified literally at gun point, soldiers in the legislative chambers during the votes. So that they ratified tells you nothing about what they thought it meant.
2. “The absence of a legislative need in 1791, 1801, or 1868 is simply not conclusive evidence that the law could never be adopted.”
This stands things on their head: The 2nd amendment creates a default assumption that gun laws are unconstitutional, which must be rebutted. You’re looking for analogous laws as evidence for that rebuttal. Their lack doesn’t prove anything, but that’s the problem: The gun control advocate NEEDS to prove something!