The Volokh Conspiracy
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Prof. Conor Clarke (Wash U.) Guest-Blogging About "The Debt Limit"
I'm delighted to report that Prof. Conor Clarke of the Washington University (St. Louis) School of Law will be guest-blogging over the coming days about his new article, The Debt Limit. The abstract:
Every couple of years, the debt limit shows up to wreak havoc in American law and public finance. By capping the face value of government securities that can be "outstanding at one time," the statutory limit threatens Treasury's ability to raise the revenue needed to fund required government spending.
And yet, despite its importance, much of the conventional wisdom surrounding the limit is wrong. Debt limits—authorities for the Executive Branch to borrow that come with limits attached—have existed since 1790, and flow naturally from the Constitution's reservation of the borrowing power to Congress. I provide a corrective account of those early limits, and draw on public laws and Treasury borrowing records to provide an overview of the Executive Branch's borrowing authority between 1790 and 1910.
That historical excavation has important doctrinal and policy implications for how we think about public finance today, and helps clear the myth and confusion surrounding the debt limit. Under current doctrine, the limit is lawful: It is a form of statutory direction and commitment that was common at the ratification of both the Constitution and the Fourteenth Amendment. The limit is binding: When the limit conflicts with spending provisions, longstanding practice suggests that it is spending—and not the limit—that must yield.
And, finally, the implications of the modern limit remain woefully misunderstood. There is no good reason to think that a "default" follows from a binding limit: tax revenue is more than sufficient to cover debt service. But there is excellent reason to think that the modern limit has become so divorced from its original appropriations purpose—which was to make spending cheaper, not harder—that the case for reform is ripe.
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O, so conservatives were right all along? That's an unusual position for a VC guest blogger to take!
Clingers gonna cling.
Maybe this guy is the next Josh Blackman.
Blackman doesn't write academic papers. He writes dramatic novels.
It's easy for this conor guy to say that "tax revenue is more than sufficient to cover debt service."
That is true enough, all things being equal. But all things would not be equal if the debt limit was not raised. Conor seems to think that tax receipts would hum along at a sufficient level to cover debt service even if the government wasn't paying all or most of its other obligations. But It is likely that less tax receipts would circle back to the government if the government defaulted on obligations other than debt service, as well as any number of unforeseen ripple effects. Conor seems not to be concerned.
Tax revenue is more than sufficient to cover debt service AND per capita, inflation adjusted spending levels that anyone who isn't in elementary school recalls living through. Current spending levels aren't normal, though there's an effort to normalize them: They're purportedly emergency spending levels, persisting after the emergencies that were used to justify them ended.
Take spending, per capita and adjusted for inflation, back to pre-2007 levels, and we could not just balance the budget, we could get started on paying down the debt.
Conor Clarke is voluntarily associating with the Volokh Conspiracy, likely after he has observed its operation for some time. That indicates (but not more) several things (as do his employment at the Office of Legal Counsel shortly after Trump took office, his choices of co-author Kristin Shapiro and publisher Rupert Murdoch, etc.) entirely consistent with advocating the Republican line on this issue.
And, finally, the implications of the modern limit remain woefully misunderstood. There is no good reason to think that a “default” follows from a binding limit: tax revenue is more than sufficient to cover debt service.
Is there any reason to suppose financial markets would not read as defaults forced shortfalls on expected payments supporting mainstream program budgets such as military expenditures, or social security payments? Between the alternatives to fully fund the military, and cut social programs, or fully fund social programs, and cut the military, are there any predictable differences in market responses, interest rate results, unemployment rates, etc?
After you say something is, “woefully misunderstood,” is it wise counsel to suppose such woeful misunderstanding will prove insignificant in determining outcomes from other fiscal policy choices?
Yes, Stephen, there is a reason: Because it wouldn't be a "default", and our creditors aren't crazy.
Conflating reduced spending and default is nothing but a bit of sophistry desperately grasped by people who are pathologically hostile to limiting government spending. You may relax, the bank will NOT regard it as default if you cancel your vacation in order to make your mortgage payment on time.
"You may relax, the bank will NOT regard it as default if you cancel your vacation in order to make your mortgage payment on time."
Hey, that's a pretty good analogy.
It's a stupid analogy. The company that sold you a custom vacation that can't be sold to someone else are going to view your failure to pay for it as a default, or breach of contract, or whatever.
Sure, defense contractors can instead sell the advanced weapons systems the Pentagon ordered to other countries, or private collectors, or freedom fighters - that can't work out badly. And the retirees who depend on Social Security payments can, um, just go back in time and make other plans for their retirements.
Go Magister! You nailed it!
Except that you're wrong on almost every point, great comment. Defense contractors go into the relationship knowing that the purchase is discretionary and can be withdrawn at any time. The government's right to change their mind is authorized by statute, spelled out in court precedents and (usually) explicitly listed in the contractual terms. Social Security has always been a non-binding "commitment" with the clear understanding that future Congresses could change the benefit amounts, terms, eligibility dates and pretty much anything else at will.
Even if the logic applied to contractors, that is still a manageable portion of the budget that could keep going on. Most of our spending is non-contractual. Indeed, Social Security is only constitutional (according to SCOTUS precedent) because citizens have no right to their check. Ditto welfare, medicare, etc.
the bank will NOT regard it as default if you cancel your vacation in order to make your mortgage payment on time.
What if you don't pay the electric bill?
Nobody is advocating not paying the electric bill. They're advocating turning off the air conditioner.
Oh, the humanity.
You’re definitely on to something here: delaying and/or reducing expenditures that have already been planned and approved is potentially very disruptive. But describing that as “defaulting” on debt obligations is neither accurate nor even very helpful to your cause.
What would be helpful is to focus on regular procedure as a value in its own right. The time to talk about any specific expenditure is when the budget is being discussed, not in the middle of a crisis. Regular procedure. You can’t have a legitimate discussion of expenditures without the proper context, without balancing needs. That’s impossible during a crisis. Regular procedure. And all that is doubly true when the crisis at hand was a forced error. Again, regular procedure wins.
And so on. Just look at the horror show that was the COVID response. There, we threw regular procedure to the four winds, and the result was more damage done by over-reacting than by the virus itself.
I certainly wouldn't claim that, if we hit the debt ceiling, and the current administration curtails spending to stay within tax revenues, the resulting pattern of spending is likely to be sensible, to Congress' liking, or even designed to minimize damage to the economy and voters.
No, we'll likely see the Washington Monument ploy turned up to 11. I doubt they'll even defer illegal spending plans.
That's a different issue from whether curtailing spending is the only constitutionally available response.
How many people did your claimed abandonment of regular procedure over COVID kill? The virus killed 1.1 million Americans.
(Please don't reply with the tedious claims they didn't really die of COVID.)
"There is no good reason to think that a "default" follows from a binding limit:"
There actually is one reason: There's a political party in America that would rather default than cut spending, and they happen to control the White house and one chamber of Congress. Other than that, spot on.
No, there's a political party that hopes to achieve its political objectives through threats to destroy the economy because it can't win enough votes and rarely tries to legislate their unpopular positions anyway, but has a majority in one chamber of Congress (but not actual control of it).
Thank you, these implications are exactly what I'd like to understand better.
The implications of running out of money to pay interest are pretty terrifying for most countries: https://apnews.com/article/china-debt-banking-loans-financial-developing-countries-collapse-8df6f9fac3e1e758d0e6d8d5dfbd3ed6
It’s currently different for the US because our government’s loans are denominated in our currency. That’s probably going to change if we keep up our lousy spending habits. To paraphrase the retired seaman, even a drunken sailor will stop spending money when HE runs out, but the US government does not.
The thing is, while the US government can force people living within its jurisdiction to take US currency even if it becomes so worthless that wheelbarrow loads of it are only useful as fuel, the same can't be said for foreigners.
So our balance of trade would adjust pretty abruptly.
Most of our (government's) foreign creditors have loans that are explicitly owed in dollars; they do have to accept dollars in repayment for that. Printing money for that purpose has its own bad effects, of course.
Yes, but you can only cheat your creditors that way once, then nobody you can't point a gun at is willing to loan you any more money.
And yet, countries that have defaulted on their foreign debts still get loaned money again in the future.
but you can only cheat your creditors that way once, then nobody you can’t point a gun at is willing to loan you any more money.
Not true. Learn some history.
That would be a bad thing?
Morally, no, it's not a bad thing. Suddenly having to live within your means, instead of getting to taper off on your own schedule, though? That's kind of unpleasant.
It’s not necessarily the borrowing in foreign currency that gets countries.
It’s the contracts for goods denominated in foreign currencies. For example contracts to buy oil in US dollars. Or contracts to buy other commodities in US dollars. many times those contracts bite a lot harder.
Yes countries that run out of money have a very difficult time importing things.
Maybe that's why we always talk about the twin deficits...
How much do US governments buy directly from foreign suppliers?
Private companies will have difficulties paying in foreign currency if the US government continues to push other countries to de-dollarize, but not as much so as our governments will.
The us government does not buy much from foreign suppliers.
Yes, private companies would be in a pickle... sort of.
Eventually, imports would decline and the trade deficit would balance out.
The reality is we have no need to import anything. We have plenty of land and natural resources. we have coal for 300 years, and iron to make steel, and oil and gas.
We simply choose not to pollute here. Better to pollute china!
We have no long term need to import anything; We have a complete set of natural resources, and are easily large enough to capture all available economies of scale.
We have a very serious short term need to import an awful lot of stuff that our economy relies on, and which we've lost the capacity to manufacture domestically.
And in this case, "short term" probably means a couple decades. There are whole industries where we haven't just let the capacity diminish, but worse: We haven't been doing that stuff for long enough that we no longer have the know-how, and would have to reacquire it.
A lot of this stuff, you can't just read a book and do it. You need proprietary tech that's kept internal to the companies doing it, or worse, is informally handed down from one practitioner to another. Getting back into industries like that is almost as hard as redeveloping the technology from scratch.
For instance:
U.S. Cedes Capability for Largest Nuclear Forgings
Note that one of the issues here is something that's really been handicapping us for the last decade: It's not just a question of whether we could reacquire the capacities, it's also a question of whether the industries that would have to spend the money to reacquire them can trust the government to let them recoup the cost.
You're talking about investments that take a decade or two to break even, and at any time during those decades a temporary change of administration policy could result in the investments becoming worthless.
The countries that have and maintain these capabilities do so not just because they spent the money, but because the private sector trusts the government to not suddenly make investments worthless. A sort of trust that the US has lost, and will have a very difficult time regaining.
i am more optimistic than you.
the main reason it takes decades to build anything is governmemt regulations. we could get a steel mill running pretty fast. or a lithium mine. we built the hoover dam in 5 years, without the massive earth movers we have today.
if we couldnt import anything, the first thing to go would be those blind shrimp in estuaries slowing us down.
We have no long term need to import anything;
Sure, we could cut off imports, I guess, with what, a 10-20% reduction in the standard of living, maybe more?
"Debts are valid, constitution says so! Therefore president can pay it even beyond the debt limit!"
"If that's so, then it can be paid out of ongoing revenue, ahead of a other things, and no borrowing needed."
"Shut up!" he explained. "Just make sure CNN has a film crew to watch sad Boy Scouts turned away from a park. I am pretty sure the Boy Scout camping manual, listing all things Boy Scouts do during camping, now requires a ranger miles away at the gate lest they sue and an asteroid needs to smear this planet."
There is no good reason to think that a “default” follows from a binding limit: tax revenue is more than sufficient to cover debt service.
No. No. No. There are other contractual payment obligations. For example, payments to lease buildings or equipment, contractual obligations to pay for purchase of goods (accounts payable for example for defense) … contractual obligations have to be paid or thats also a default.
There certainly is some (maybe a lot of) entitlement spending which the government is not obligated to pay.
i know… the governmemt is horrible at accounting and pays little attention to it. But there are liabilities beyond tradition debt; not paying them also triggers a default. Now, maybe they aren't included in the “debt limit” because…. why? Think of all the debts/bills you might restructure in a bankruptcy.
All of these things you mention are, by long precedent, capable of being repudiated by statute. They're not "debt". For instance, after WWII ended, the federal government canceled a lot of orders for military supplies, and refused to take delivery or pay for them despite having let contracts for their manufacture.
You think maybe Biden continued putting up Trump's border wall, just because the contracts had already been signed?
In fact, you'll find that government purchase contracts routinely include a "Termination for Convenience of the Government" clause.
Canceling an order or exercising a termination option in a contract is different from failing to pay for goods that have been delivered under that contract.
Also, the government is not out of money. The federal government owns a f***** ton of land which they could post as collateral.
First, you'd hardly need to stiff suppliers for things that have already been delivered in order to balance the budget, so that's a non-issue.
Second, collateral is something you put up to secure a loan, and it's irrelevant if you're not legally allowed to borrow more in the first place.
I know what collateral is.
The government being the government can probably arrange repo contracts on its land. and convince accountants to treat these as forward sales not short-term borrowing.
I will happily buy treasury securities that settle in land out west.
Yes, the government could could probably convince accountants, especially those in its own employ, to treat that as not being borrowing. Whether the courts would be as accommodating is another question.
Why not just actually sell the land, with a repurchase option? That would legitimately not be borrowing.
Sell the land with a repurchase option is essentially how repo contracts work.
...and where would they get the money to repurchase the land?
my hope would be they dont 🙂
but eventually the debt ceiling will be raised or the govt would have to run surpluses.
Starting the circle all over again.
I agree, ideally they wouldn't repurchase it. The federal government has taken too much of the country's resources and land out of circulation, especially out West. It would do our economy a lot of good to shake loose the land they've been obsessively hoarding.
No one thinks the government won’t have the ability to eventually pay. They have to, and, in addition to land or Fort Knox, are in the unique position to be able to back their loans with the legal power to tax.
It’s pay now, timely, that is the every 10 or 20 years fight.
Most of you are old enough to have seen this before. Is rebroadcasting the BS chucked into the top of your echo chambers by the power brokers, who just care about power, really worth it?
They don’t care. They just want to win elections so their House, MD-level investment savant genius spouses can continue with godlike preternatural insights to increase family worth at many multiples of the rate of their CongressCreature spouses’ official salary.
Also I hear you accounts payable is probably a small fraction of the overall deficit. My point was somewhat pedantic
That said we live in a world where the pentagon can make a three billion dollar error.
Does anybody really know what time it is over there?
We live in a world where the Pentagon can lie about having made a $3B error in order to pretend that the administration still has statutory authority to send more aid without getting permission from Congress.
Not quite the same thing.
Unfortunately i dont think it was malice. Pentagon brass isnt that smart. Its plain old incompetence.
The way you distinguish incompetence and malice, is that incompetence randomly works for and against the incompetent; Malice conspicuously always works in their favor.
governmemt incompetence never comes out in my favor... so maybe a distinction without a difference.
Because a breach of contract is not the same thing as defaulting on a debt. (To be clear, all defaults are breaches of contract, but the reverse is not true.)
First of all, I've seen plenty of debt contracts where failing to meet other obligations, or various other conditions unrelated to payment of the note, are considered defaults.
Second, what does it matter if it's not.
Lenders, and potential lenders, care about more than just the payments on a particular debt. Try refinancing your mortgage if you're overdue on your utility bills, and are being sued by various contractors.
So this is purely an argument over terminology? Are the consequences to the economy different for a breach of contract that's not a default?
Yes, of course. The next time you try to sell bonds, the potential buyer is not going to say, "Well, sure, I got paid back in full last time, but the U.S. stopped paying park service workers so I won't buy this time." The bondholders want to know that they're going to be paid back.
The bondholders want to know that they’re going to be paid back.
Of course they do, but their judgment about that might be influenced by other factors than just past repayment of bonds in isolation. So you hold some corporate bonds and are deciding whether to buy a new issue from the same company. They’ve always paid just fine, but just skipped a couple of payments on some preferred stock. Does that influence your thinking?
Treasury buyers might also be influenced by the observation that we don’t seem to be able to avoid these clown show fights every few years and one day one of them could spiral out of control.
Wow, the only way the economy can go into a downturn is that bond buyers won't buy future bonds? That would be reassuring if it were actually true.
"thats also a default."
Vendors get late paid all the time in the private sector. No "default".
Even if that were true, and I don't think it is legally valid. It is still a small enough portion of the budget that continuing such payments is well within the means of tax revenue alone.
Also: Yes, the debt limit exists because eventually it runs out of other peoples money to spend.
I pay enough taxes to employ two people, instead it goes to the government so people dont work.
The US spends money like a south american dictatorship. We get away with it because eventually growth and productivity catch up. During COVID we rapidly spent money beyond the capacity to produce goods. Hello inflation! No progressives can’t repeal the laws of economics.
We are now at the point in the cycle people should be coming off government subsistence and working. Working fuels productivity. Oh wait… we dont want to pick strawberries. thats because people get 40k in benefits to not work. Let them poor yellow people get their back into it! while not paying taxes, or paying for car insurance, and selling fent on the side…. I just want to collect my 40k and play COD.
Maybe a return to pay as you go would be beneficial to government and individuals as well.
There's actually very little reason indeed for a government as large as ours to go into debt.
Debt financing only makes sense when you have necessary expenditures that current revenues can't cover. For a government as large as ours, about the only thing that genuinely qualifies on that score is a world war. Even large expenditures that would pay for themselves are small enough relative to cash flow that they'd make more sense to pay for out of current revenue.
We don't borrow because of any defensible reason. We borrow because our politicians want to buy votes, and don't want to piss voters off by taxing them to pay for the handouts. They want to, IOW, live beyond our means.
That's about the least defensible excuse for borrowing in existence, and everybody knows it. But like the guy who really, really does not want to admit he can't afford an annual trip to Hawaii, and given his income needs to be eating tuna mac, not steak, "we" borrow continually to live a lifestyle we can't afford.
And what can't go on, won't.
No, that's not true. Debt financing makes sense whenever the cost of borrowing is less than the return on the spending.
Which in the case of government spending rarely (if ever) happens.
Oh stop with this argument. It's just spewing ideology - The standard fallback when you don't have an intelligent response.
Name one.
LOL, what is the return of government transfers? Or Defense spending?
Hint: tanks and planes are destroyed during war and transfer payments are zero sum.
What is the return on defense spending?
Well gee, you mean if we spend billions on an aircraft carrier we get no benefit? Seems pointless. You mean a plane destroyed in a war provided no benefit before being shot down? Then we can save a lot by disbanding the Air Force.
Biden's working on it and the Navy and Army too.
That's a theoretical circumstance that you essentially never see in the public sector. And even there, using current revenue is even better, because you don't have the debt carrying expense eating up the profits.
That’s a theoretical circumstance that you essentially never see in the public sector. And even there, using current revenue is even better, because you don’t have the debt carrying expense eating up the profits.
More incredible fucking ignorance. Not to mention innumeracy.
the debt carrying expense eating up the profits.
The whole idea, Brett, is that the debt expense is less than the profits, which wouldn't be there without the debt.
Now do CA high speed rail.
There’s actually very little reason indeed for a government as large as ours to go into debt.
Incredibly stupid comment. Why do you comment on economic issues when you seem to be completely ignorant of the subject?
Much as you'd like to think it, ignorance isn't defined as "disagreeing with you".
Funny, that seems to be your definition.
"I'm an ENGINEER," says Brett.
And no, it's not because you disagree with me. It's because the statement is completely wrong, and hardly anyone who actually understands the matter will agree with you.
Nothing like doubling down to drive home your pointless point.
My point, since you missed it, is that Brett is talking out his ass about stuff he patently nothing about.
I'm not asserting that I am the ultimate authority. I am asserting that what I am saying is bog-standard economics. Google "capital budgeting."
I'm generally more inclined to agree with Brett than Bernard is. However, Brett's current take is just totally wrong. There are plenty of government spending programs that bring outsized returns. For instance, ROI on the interstate highway system is generally thought to be around 5x. That is, for every $1 spent, $5 in benefits to the nation accrued. This makes sense - transportation infrastructure enables economies of scale, more capacity for specialization, etc. For education programs, the ROI is pretty similar. Again, this makes sense - having more productive, better-trained workers generally brings enormous value to the national economy.
You can make this argument for many government spending programs. I'm sure the value brought by the US Navy patrolling the global oceans and allowing mass trade was enormous. I'm sure the ROI on spending for nuclear weapons to deter the outbreak of another catastrophic global war was similarly so. Of course, there are plenty of government spending programs that are not at all worth the money. For instance, it's pretty well accepted that Social Security has had a terrible ROI. I'm sure we could all come up with dozens of examples. The point is that this is a case-by-case analysis. Simply saying things like "you essentially never see [positive ROI] in the public sector" is flat out wrong.
Further, Brett is off-base when saying "using current revenue is even better, because you don’t have the debt carrying expense eating up the profits." Any economic actor is better off borrowing to fund anything where ROI exceeds debt payments. This is why well-run businesses will borrow to fund projects when interest rates are low enough, even if they have the funds to pay for things now. If I can pay, say, 4% APR on debt and will make a 8% annual ROI, it would be economically irresponsible for me to pay for things upfront rather than to borrow.
None of this should be taken as me endorsing all deficit spending. It's worthwhile in some cases and a terrible idea in others. For instance, it's a terrible idea to deficit spend for the entitlement programs (which are the only ones that actually matter as far as the country's fiscal future is concerned). I'm just saying that we have to start from an economically justifiable starting point.
" . . . longstanding practice suggests that it is spending—and not the limit—that must yield."
OH REALLY?!?
"Congress has always acted when called upon to raise the debt limit. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Congressional leaders in both parties have recognized that this is necessary."
https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/debt-limit
We're discussing what has to give way if the debt ceiling isn't raised. For that purpose, historical practice when the ceiling has been hit is relevant, the fact that after a while it did get raised, isn't.
Yes, Congress can decide to increase the debt limit. The bit you quoted was about what must happen until Congress does so.
Government shutdowns are not a particularly rare thing; we've had something like two dozen since 1980. Dems forced a 35-day shutdown during Trump's administration. The major difference between those (when there was no signed budget bill) and hitting the debt limit is that in the latter case, the executive branch will have to prioritize discretionary spending to reduce expenditures so they match revenue.
“Every couple of years, the debt limit shows up to wreak havoc in American law and public finance.”
No, it doesn’t. It “shows up to wreak havoc in American law and public finance” when there’s a dem admin and MAGA holds at least one house of congress. And it’s MAGA wreaking the havoc, not the debt limit. But go on, keep convincing more and more MAGA that a US default won’t really be that big a deal. We’ll get there eventually. Besides, we’ll all be too busy selling our own pencil stubs and apple cores to hunt down the folks responsible for walking the world into the buzzsaw,
True.
Right.
The comments above, minimizing the whole thing, are profoundly, frighteningly, ignorant.
I guess Brett will remind us that he's an engineer, so can't be wrong, soon.
I'm not arguing that a default wouldn't be a bad thing. It would, in fact, be a terrible thing.
I'm just arguing that it's not the automatic consequence of hitting the debt ceiling. Cutting spending until the budget balances is the consequence, and, no, THAT doesn't have to be a bad thing.
Though I'm pretty confident the Biden administration will find some way to make sure it turns out ugly.
You don't know WTF you are talking about.
Besides, you seem to be unaware that 2024 spending has not yet been set, so there is plenty of time to discuss, debate, negotiate, etc., without this crap.
And that would be a reasonable response if we were going to hit the debt ceiling in 2024.
It's a reasonable response today.
Contrary to your hysteria, we are not on the verge of national bankruptcy - not close. We can easily spend what has been appropriated for 2023 with no dire consequences.
You want to make cuts in 2024? Guess what. There are ways to do that with threatening to burn down the house.
"You want to make cuts in 2024? "...which you will certainly oppose..
44 Democratic senators [including Joe Biden] voted against a debt limit increase in 2006.
Yes, we all know the debt limit was increased in 2006, Bob.
Yeah, right. Because spending like a drunken sailor has no negative consequences ever.
“The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law . . . shall not be questioned.”
It’s apparently the writer’s position that this part of the Fourteenth Amendment is meaningless. That’s impossible. It has to have some meaning. Someone tell me what it means.
It means that the U.S. can't repudiate lawfully-incurred debt.
Let's say that you decide not to pay your mortgage this month. You are defaulting on the loan; you are not, however, denying its validity.
That's just a rationalization used to pretend that we haven't occasionally violated that clause of the 14th amendment. The 14th amendment doesn't have that clause to forbid government from uttering the words, "Debt, is it really valid?". It has it to reassure creditors.
Creditors don't care if you question the debt, they care if they get paid.
FWIW the drafting history originally said the public debt shall be inviolate. It was changed to its validity shall not be questioned.
Make of that what you will but I think that's a quite significant change.
Save us, King Biden!!! Save us!!!
But not by negotiating a handful of token meaningless spending cuts. Don’t save us like that. Impose your will!! Crush your enemies!!!
Actually, I wish he would tell McCarthy to fuck off and just have Yellen issue the premium bonds.
Bluntly, McCarthy and company are simply extortionists, threatening to burn the house down if they don't get their way.
bernard11 the new SarcastrO.
Hey, yeah, let’s have the president openly violate the law by issuing debt above the debt ceiling. That’ll certainly protect our precious norms that we were so worried about when Trump was president.
Two sides are declining to negotiate. Why is one demonic and the other angelic?
Hey, yeah, let’s have the president openly violate the law by issuing debt above the debt ceiling.
Hey, yeah, let’s have the president openly violate the law by not spending money he is required to spend.
Get off your high horse, Bevis.
Two sides are declining to negotiate. Why is one demonic and the other angelic?
So the extortionist and his victim are morally equivalent? Is that what you think? If I decline to negotiate with a terrorist I'm equally to blame?
Besides, there would be no violation if we issued consols or premium-coupon bonds. The debt limit statute specifically refers to face value of debt.
In every negotiation there’s an extortionist and a victim?
You could just as easily say that Biden is committing extortion. He’s using the limit as a threat every bit as much as the other side.
You need to get off the high horse, not me. I recognize this as old fashioned political wrangling. Both sides are using the deadline as leverage, but you’re couching one as committing extortion and the other as a complete victim. It’s a ridiculous perspective.
In every negotiation there’s an extortionist and a victim?
No. In some there are. And it's important to recognize the difference.
"Nice economy you got here. Shame if something happened to it."
And you’re acting as if congress should have no say in this, which is absolutely wrong.
It is their place to decide how much debt the country should accumulate. It isn’t Biden’s.
So you negotiate. But Biden doesn’t get to just dictate. It’s not his place.
Congress absolutely gets a say. And they had it here when they authorized the spending for this fiscal year. Now the GOP wants backsies.
And they have it again on 2024 spending. Contrary to what you and others seem to think, the money being spent was appropriated by Congress. Biden didn't suddenly decide to double everyone's Social Security benefits.
I don’t dispute that. But Congress has the right to change their mind on spending. At any time for any reason.
You’re acting as if every dollar approved to be spent in current and future years is now an entitlement. That just ain’t so.
Congress has the right to change their mind on spending. At any time for any reason.
They can change their mind, but they can't change the law without going through the usual procedure.
The House has no right to do that unilaterally. Remember "how a bill becomes a law" from civics class? The way Congress "changes its mind" is for the House and Senate to pass a bill, and for the President to sign it.
Just the House passing one doesn't do the trick.
"Bluntly, McCarthy and company are simply extortionists"
Complete BS. The GOP has an elected House majority and are doing a political negotiation. Happens every day in every split government.
Do negotiating parties in split government describe themselves as taking hostages every day? Because that sounds like extortion to me.
https://news.yahoo.com/matt-gaetz-embraces-role-hostage-113725585.html
Backbencher comment is not McCarthy.
Squad member Tliab said there be riots if there were budget cuts. Seems pretty extortiony.
Link?
I believe it was Jayapal. CNN article here quotes her thusly:
Looking forward to creative innocuous interpretations of "backlash in the streets."
Ah, yes, for the GOP, all protests are violent. I forgot.
If past is prologue are they unreasonable to suspect that?
Thank you. I was going from memory.
If past is prologue are they unreasonable to suspect that?
You're so right! All protests in the past, without exception, have been violent.
Not what I said, not that you care.
I'm sure you'll point us to "mostly" peaceful protests, with mostly doing a lot of work.
Backbencher Tlaib (or Jayapal) is not "the Democrats."
Bob,
If you want to sell your house, and I make an offer, and then you make a counter-offer, we are negotiating.
If I tell you if you don't take my offer I'm going to burn your house down, that's extortion.
The excuses for OP behavior would be laughable if this weren't so serious.
The reality is even worse than your analogy. This is much closer to me accepting your offer, us forming a valid contract for the house sale, then you telling me that you'll burn down the house if I don't let you modify the contract.
Which has nothing whatsoever to do with the debt limit discussion. Once Congress borrows authorizes borrowing the money, the validity of the debt cannot be challenged. The debt limit, on the other hand, is Congress saying that certain borrowing is authorized (and by implication that all other debt is not). Putting out a spending plan is not the authorization of borrowing.
For a personal analogy, a family’s budget can set targets for how much they will spend on food, gas, rent, etc. The budget alone does not unilaterally authorize one member of the family to take out of a home equity loan. But if the family does authorize on person to take out that home equity loan, the whole family is on the hook for it.
This is not about voting to incur more debt. This is about acknowledging that existing debts are valid and must be paid. Republicans are “questioning” that.
No, it's voting to allow more debt. Nobody is saying anything at all about the validity of existing debt.
Yes, it is about voting to incur more debt. It is that and only that. Future budgets and discretionary offers are not "debts".
"Republicans are “questioning” that."
Ever reach your credit card limit so can't charge any more? Is that “questioning”?
The budget alone does not unilaterally authorize one member of the family to take out of a home equity loan.
But spending Congressional appropriations is mandatory.
"But spending Congressional appropriations is mandatory."
NO it is not.
Huh? It really is. See the Impoundment Control Act and numerous SCOTUS decisions saying so.
Here in the real world we KNOW what it means...Biden is now at the $8 Trillion mark in spending ans we are sick to death of him spending our money and our children's money on sht.
There, in simple terms.
First thing to do is claw back any unspent Covid money.
I’m he problem is the debt limit. the only group who can fix it is the GOP House.
Not the Dems, not the President.
All else is eyewash. Whatever bullshit you want on spending is a severance issue.
If we end up tucking ourselves on this, the fault lies with one group.
It’s defenders on here seem either ignorant of what the limit does and is, or nihilistic and don’t care about the consequences because spending makes them mad, or both.
Defenders of what?
The GOP house has passed a bill. The other side is, best we can tell, unwilling to negotiate around that bill.
But, yeah, you be you and blame one side - the one that has at least, you know, done something. The Democrats are resorting to their PEOPLE ARE GOING TO DIE rhetoric over keeping spending at last year's level, adjusted for no longer needed Covid emergency spending.
Yesterday a Democratic congressperson threatened violence in the streets if Biden agrees to cut a single dollar. But sure, this is all one side's fault.
The bill is not solving the problem, it’s adding a bunch of cruft to the issue.
Maybe Biden will negotiate around the other issues being pulled in. But the onus of solving the debt ceiling issue does not lie with him.
I don’t know what will happen, but I do know it’s needless, and who is the party failing to act.
What actions are the other party taking, other than threatening violence?
Point me to where Biden or anyone aligned with him is threatening violence.
What do you suppose "but also in the streets" means, anyway?
Uh, people take to the streets to protest?
But I'm probably being swayed by that noted leftist outlet the National Review:
Representative Pramila Jayapal (D., Wash.) on Tuesday warned that leftist protesters will take to the streets if President Biden agrees to spending cuts as part of negotiations with Republicans to ward off a looming debt default.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/jayapal-predicts-backlash-in-the-streets-if-biden-agrees-to-spending-cuts-in-debt-ceiling-negotiations/
Cute. There's a huge spectrum of follow-on activities after you "take to the streets." Only some fit any reasonable definition of "backlash."
"So let's assume she meant the unreasonable ones."
Right, since she chose to say "backlash." Not sure what point you thought you were making.
Ah, here come the creative interpretations I called for above. All she meant by "backlash in the streets" was garden-variety peaceful protesting. Riiiight.
Argument is easy when you attribute to your enemies stuff they didn't say!
Amazon is running a special on mirrors. You should get one.
I attributed to her the words in the quotation marks. You can also very easily find the CNN footage and hear them emerging from her mouth. Again, not sure what point you think you're making.
She didn't threaten, or even mention, violence. She said there will be a "backlash" in Congress "and also in the streets," and the obvious meaning is that people will protest. Admittedly, to the right-wing mind, that automatically means violence, but that's your problem.
Uh huh. Just like "nice restaurant you have here... sure would be a shame if something happened to it" is a genuine, heartfelt sentiment. Carry on with your little cutesy plausible deniability routine -- her message was crystal clear to a reasonable person.
What actions are the other party taking, other than threatening violence?
You want to know?
Do you realize how much bullshit is in that document?
Just an easy one, Biden has certainly not reduced energy costs, insurance premiums, or prescription drug prices. Or any other costs for that matter. To actually claim that with a straight face insults our intelligence. Seriously, see if you can find one American that has experienced lower energy costs or insurance premiums compared to early 2021.
Releasing easily dismissed garbage like this is not constructive in getting anything done because the people he’s negotiating with know it’s garbage.
He’s being no more reasonable than the Republicans.
The GOP house has passed a bill. The other side is, best we can tell, unwilling to negotiate around that bill.
Why negotiate "around that bill?" Biden has made a budget proposal. Why not start there?
Spending originates in the President's budget proposal.
Oh wait, that's not right.
"Not the Dems, not the President."
They can pass and sign the GOP passed bill increasing the limit.
That is a bunch of collateral stuff well above and beyond the debt limit.
The specific issue here is in the GOPs hands, they want to make it a broader to thing. That is their choice; it is not going to shift the burden.
And Biden just wants to kick the can down the road. Again. Without even doing some tiny thing to act like they're addressing the problem.
The debt is created by spending more than we're taxing. Spending is directly creating the need for the debt limit. Calling it collateral stuff unrelated to the debt limit and cruft is not accurate. It is the genesis of the problem.
We've had actual debt limit "shutdowns" before, most recently when Clinton was president. Somehow we survived.
You can be unhappy about the national debt. And the debt limit.
They are separate things.
It’s just interesting that Democrats are in control of two of the three bodies who exist to address this and you insist that they have no obligation to do anything.
And Biden just wants to kick the can down the road. Again. Without even doing some tiny thing to act like they’re addressing the problem.
Democrats are in control of two of the three bodies who exist to address this and you insist that they have no obligation to do anything.
Just false.
How so?
See above.
Among other things, Biden has proposed a budget which he says will cut the deficit. I've heard nothing about that from the GOP except "No!"
Refusing to negotiate, it seems to me.
Besides, it's more than just cutting some spending they want. They want to increase defense spending, and make the Trump tax cuts permanent. They also want to hobble the IRS. Can't have their buddies getting audited.
Biden has not proposed a budget that will cut the deficit. He’s claiming that he cut the deficit by ignoring the adjustment for expiring Covid emergency spending. Engaging in spin and misinformation.
Everything I’ve seen says that the Rs have simply demanded spending cuts. I agree that all that other stuff is superfluous in this circumstance, if it’s actually one of their asks.
Did Republicans avoid default by raising the debt limit without fanfare throughout the Trump administration? Did you object to that "can-kicking?"
"it is not going to shift the burden"
Joe Biden's people seem to disagree.
I'm not sure I agree with you on that.
Then the same thing will always happen. Dems only come to the table to negotiate when the debt ceiling is in question.
Quick thread hijack. Tina Turner has died.
I’ve always admired her and she grew up in a small community maybe 30 miles outside my hometown. Same age as my mother.
This makes me sad enough that I’m babbling about it in a political thread. Some things matter more than other things.