The Volokh Conspiracy
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A YIMBY Victory in Montana
Montana's sweeping new zoning reform is both good in itself and a potential model for cross-ideological cooperation on this issue elsewhere.
Exclusionary zoning causes massive housing shortages that prevent millions of people from "moving to opportunity" and becoming more productive. The state of Montana is about to enact important new zoning reforms that will make it easier to build new housing in the state. The new legislation is the product of an unusual cross-ideological coalition that might serve as a model for "YIMBY" reforms elsewhere. CityLab housing expert Kriston Capps has a helpful analysis of these developments:
Lawmakers in Montana's state legislature advanced bills in April that would shake up zoning, land use and building codes, making it much easier for property owners to build new housing — and much harder for local authorities to stop them.
A flurry of five separate "Yes In My Backyard" bills — all five sponsored by Republican legislators — are winding their way through various committees. One would require cities to permit backyard flats and other accessory dwelling units by right. Another law would allow duplex homes to be built in places zoned for single-family housing. If Montana Governor Greg Gianforte, also a Republican, signs even a couple of these bills into law, Montana will have leapfrogged several East and West Coast states that have struggled to respond to housing shortages at home….
In one fell swoop, the Montana legislature could issue a range of deregulatory actions that have only moved forward in California after years of agitation. On April 20, the legislature passed SB 323, which requires any city with more than 5,000 residents to permit duplex housing in areas zoned for single-family homes. Gianforte is expected to sign this bill as well as SB 406, which prohibits local governments from passing building codes that are stricter than the state code, any time now.
Of the bills in view, the most consequential is SB 382, the Montana Land Use Planning Act, a YIMBY omnibus package the likes of which few blue states would dare to consider.
SB 382 would transform the development process, limiting public hearings on housing projects by front-loading them to the general planning stages, when municipalities adopt their overall land-use plans. After that, approvals in Montana cities would proceed by right — effectively shutting out NIMBY homeowners who often thwart growth.
As Capps explains, the new legislation is the product of an unusual left-right political coalition:
The wave of legislation is the work of a diverse group of advocates from both the political left and right. The coalition behind this push is clear about its goal: Montana needs to head off a housing crisis at the pass.
On this point advocates can agree, even if on almost every other subject, they're worlds apart. And by joining forces, this left-right coalition cleared a political impasse that has blocked so-called housing-abundant policies, which strive to remove barriers to new construction.
We were able to go to mostly Republicans and talk about free markets the importance of property rights. They were able to go to folks on the left and talk about climate and social impacts," says Kendall Cotton, president and CEO of the Frontier Institute, a right-leaning free-market think tank. "It doesn't break down on normal partisan lines. Advocates shouldn't silo themselves on the normal partisan lines."
The YIMBY movement taking shape in Helena is unusual in the US: Few states with a Republican governor, much less with a GOP supermajority in the legislature, have advanced such sweeping efforts to promote new housing construction in cities. Some red states have seen the opposite happen: When Gainesville became the first city in Florida to end single-family-only zoning locally, state leaders threatened legal action, and local Democrats repealed the ordinance before it could take effect.
Zoning reform cuts across standard ideological lines. Economists and housing experts across the political spectrum agree on the need to curb exclusionary zoning. But there is also is long history of both left and right-wing NIMBYism, motivated by a combination of public ignorance, suspicion of market forces and developers, and (particularly, though far from exclusively, on the right) fear of disruption of existing communities by in-migration, especially that by the poor and racial minorities.
NIMBY opposition will be easier to overcome if reform advocates can work together across traditional political lines, as they have in Montana. As Copps notes, such coalitions may not be needed in overwhelmingly "blue" jurisdictions, where conservatives and libertarians have too little political influence to make much difference. But they can be useful in light-red, light-blue, and "purple" states like Virginia, where GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin has recently advocated reform, but will likely need help from Democrats to push legislation through. A broad coalition has turned out to be valuable even in strongly red Montana, where the support of liberals helped push reform over the top.
Whether Montana's success can be replicated elsewhere remains to be seen. Capps suggests "[i]t's possible that the special sauce in Montana is ultimately Montana itself." But, while Montana-specific factors surely played a role here, the problems caused by exclusionary zoning are from unique to that state. Reformers should at least try to learn from the Montana experience and see if they can develop similar coalitions in other states.
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I have no idea if these measures will result in lower-cost housing--although I imagine that they will. Or, if neighborhoods will become less desirable (ie, higher crime, worse traffice, etc)--although I imagine that this also will happen.
But we live in a country of 50 states, and it's great to see different approaches taken. Let's see what works, what doesn't work, and modify future laws and zoning accordingly.
What I would love to see happen is for people in Montana to agree in advance on what sorts of data they will be looking at 10 years down-the-road, and what findings they all agree in advance will show 'success' or "failure." This, I suspect, will almost certainly not happen...if it works, no one on the NIMBY side will ever admit they were wrong. And if it doesn't work, no one on the pro-development side will ever admit that they are wrong. Hope to be proven wrong on this cynical point . . . .
"What I would love to see happen is for people in Montana to agree in advance on what sorts of data they will be looking at 10 years down-the-road, and what findings they all agree in advance will show ‘success’ or “failure.”
I mean, that's near impossible to really judge effectively ahead of time. Real life isn't a laboratory experiment, where you can control variables. You simply need to make the best policy choice you can at the time you do, then change it as needed
AL,
Maybe you're right about this. But...maybe you're wrong. Let me make up a few examples. The crime rate Helena, Montana (for the past 50+ years) has largely tracked the the crime rate in City X, Idaho. It's been quite consistent. And, housing prices in Helena have pretty much mirrors the prices in City Z, New Mexico. Over rises and falls, over the past 5 decades.
If both sides of the current debate agree right now, in April 2023, that, yes indeed; crime has largely followed X and prices have largely followed Z . . . then why couldn't both sides also agree, "Hey, in 2033, let's see how crime here compares to how things are going in X, and how home prices compare to Z."??? Of course there are confounding variables...there always are in real life. But that doesn't mean that it's impossible to get valid data.
The short answer is, while you could get data retrospectively (I.e., looking back at things that have been done, and doing your best to control for variables), doing this type of study prospectively (saying what will be done), violates several tenets of ethics, democratic governance, and experimental design (notably blinding).
In terms of ethics, you're committing the civilian population to an experiment, without obtaining all of their consents. Then you need to consider if conditions change (or the population changes) over that time, you restrict them within the experiment.
In terms of democratic governance, once of the key aspects is that new governments aren't necessarily restricted by past governments. This would "lock" any new government elected by the people into a policy that this government didn't choose (and may not want)
In terms of blinding, the experiment is known by both parties. This means that distinct actions to change the experimental outcome may be made by interested parties.
And of course, this assumes that conditions stay the same between the areas.
I mean, if you had a dictatorial authoritarian government, akin to the Soviet Union, you could run such an experiment with better control. But we don't have that.
Every damned law puts civilians under an experiment -- will things change as expected? -- and piss few are even reviewed or altered based on results years down the road. The consent, if you want to put it that way, is the democratic process. If not, no law is legitimate.
As long as you ban all public housing, I'm all for opening up private zoning.
Why not public housing with the adage that it must be maintained and no crime. First strike, you're out. Filtration of this kind will naturally lead to good tenants
As a banned poster might have said, I’ll believe it when all these lawyers and politicians in gated communities build low cost housing next door to themselves instead of other people.
Some of them even point out you can vote with your feet and get the hell out of there, as a last resort, from shitty, self-serving politicians doing the wrong thing.
I have no issue with multifamily housing, as long as the "families" don't consist of Shaniqua, her 7 illegitimate children, and the drug-dealing boyfriend named LeMarcus or Shitavius.
Probably not a problem in Montana
Helena MT, population roughly 30,000
Afro-Amuricans comprise 0.5% of the population,
not 5%, Zero-point-Five %, or 1 in every 200 (The one Officer Friendly's got "Assuming the Position")
So Hommina Hommina, 0.5%,
means there's some 150 Afro-Amuricans in Helena,
or about the same as you'll find in your typical Atlanta Publix or Kroger..
Frank
That’s exactly why they can get away with this law. There’s no problem with multifamily per se. The problem is blacks. So eliminating the types of housing blacks can afford is a good way to keep blacks out.
Until white America wakes up and reintroduces restrictive covenants, and tells SCOTUS to pound sand, nothing will change.
I think that things got switched around a bit here. Here in MT, with almost no Blacks, the state legislature is easing up on the bars to low cost housing. This is something that would usually benefit Blacks, but there are very few of them here (and where the are concentrated (college towns like Missoula), they already probably live in high density housing - college dorms and off campus housing.
The interesting thing to me is that other ethnic groups often live more densely than Blacks, esp Hispanics, but the zoning is much less effective because of their tendency to live as an extended family. We lived (the other half the year) in a slight majority Hispanic neighbor in W PHX. Two of us lived in a 4 bedroom house. Across the street was a Hispanic extended family with a similar floor plan, but maybe 2 more bedrooms (where our loft and den were). That meant 6-8 adults (no kids) living there happily. The only issue is that they all had vehicles, and they would fill up the cul-da-sac every night with their trucks. There probably had been some complaints to the HOA about them hanging out in their trucks, playing Salsa music. But that quickly ended. The point is that Hispanics, and probably some Asians, get around housing cost problems, and the like by often living in a multigenerational extended family situation. It wasn’t a cheap house, by any means. They just had a lot of family members sharing the cost.
and they have this quaint Hispanic custom called "El Trabajo"
As a right wing conservative I spend a lot of time calling BS on bogus accusations of racism. But you're a racist.
He is indeed. But he's OUR racist. In case you didn't know, this blog is a charitable home for retired bigots. They can still feel superior because black folk change their diapers. We don't tell them their blood transfusions are from brown people, and we keep Fox showing 24/7...on mute of course
Ten years living in Portugal. Restrictions on building anything, nearly anywhere, makes life and land almost worthless. I'd agree to any law that allows land owners to make anything on their land as long as it isn't a menace. Fucking covenants and zoning are completely antithetical to freedom
What keeps you in Portugal?
As a right wing conservative I spend a lot of time calling BS on bogus accusations of racism. But you're a racist.
All for it with one caveat, NO public housing, no forced "affordable" housing. Let developers build for the market, no free loaders. Public housing must all be closed down.
“particularly, though far from exclusively, on the right”
Your link is to “why the suburbs have shifted blue”. You linked to the wrong article.
Here is what comes next in Montana. Small towns scattered in scenic locations all over the western part of the state get targeted for development—but not in the town, outside it, on agricultural land. Developers put farmers or ranchers under option contracts—all hush-hush of course—giving the developer power to buy hundreds of acres at a price that lets the farmer retire for life, but contingent on a rezone from any restriction that the land be used for agriculture. If the developer's preferred zoning change goes through, so does the deal.
Next comes a startling plat detailing a new subdivision on the town's border, with housing for twice as many newcomers as the entire county's population. The land use, residential character, cultural history, scenic attraction, and politics of the county all get blown to smithereens together.
Huge fight about this right now in lefty Arlington County, Virginia.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/12/10/zoning-single-family-detached-neighborhood/
As I mentioned in several of Somin's other articles on this topic, the proposed new housing in Arlington is not actually much cheaper. As your article points out, the median single-home price is $600,000. The proposed housing I saw highlighted would have new condos at $400,000-plus, and duplexes "starting at" $500,000.
That's great for the city's tax base, but it is no more "affordable housing" than the houses that already exist.
I hope it works out as intended for Montana. I just wouldn't put money on it.