The Volokh Conspiracy
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Question for Our Florida Readers About Gov. DeSantis
As many have pointed out, Ron DeSantis won the Florida Governor's race in 2018 in a squeaker, 49.6%-49.2%, and in 2022 in a blowout, 59.4%-40%. What's your sense, based on your knowledge of your fellow Floridians, of why this happened?
Note that I'm not asking here whether DeSantis is in reality a good governor, or whether he would make a good President, or the like. My question is why he's been so politically successful, at least as reflected in this election result (though his real or perceived accomplishments could of course bear on that). Obviously, one possible answer is that Charlie Crist was just an awful opponent, in a way that Andrew Gillum was not; naturally, I'd love to hear about that. But I don't want to prejudge the matter: I genuinely just want to get a sense, however impressionistic, of the secret of DeSantis's political success.
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It seems that nationally most incumbent governors were re-elected. DeSantis appears to be a competent, articulate, and affable governor.
Well, that’s exactly the question. Obviously he is none of those things, but why did his voters think he was???
You live in Florida, do you?
ETA you are pretty patronizing in all your comments, probably unaware of it.
The reason for asking Florida residents to respond is because they are much more aware of DeSantis every day than outsiders, especially such partisan animals as you, who only notice DeSantis when he makes national news. Your opinion on why he got re-elected are uninformed and worthless.
I don’t, that’s why I’m agreeing with prof. Volokh that it’s an interesting question. I wasn’t offering an opinion on why he got re-elected, that’s the whole point.
As for patronising, I’m only patronising in response to comments (and occasionally blog posts) that deserve it. If the shoe fits…
“Obviously, he’s none of these things… “
-dk
It would be strange for a Yale and Harvard graduate to be inarticulate: can you give us some examples? Because conclusory insults do not advance the discussion.
He can’t spell the past tense of “awake”?
Obviously. Lol.
Clearly he’s quite competent and articulate. I guess you can argue about the affable part. His competence is what scares the American Pravda because he’s a much more formidable opponent than Trump.
And I don’t like him that much because of his punishment of people for speech. Regardless, your criticism is terminally stupid.
I mean, who are you going to believe? The residents who live with him every day or some yahoo in Europe who bases everything on the narrative of the American media?
He’s competent at getting elected. But at running the state?
Look at the posts from residents of Florida on this board. He did a good job during the pandemic. I hadn’t heard this before today but apparently Floridians are very pleased with the state’s response to Ian. Stands to reason I guess, because if the state had screwed that up he’d have been crucified by the national media.
So, yeah, I don’t live there but it sure looks like Floridians think he’s good at running the state
Obviously the voters of Florida are incompetent, as they didn’t render a decision on his competency despite re-electing him by a margin impressive in almost any context for comparison.
Granted it wasn’t quite the margin of a California statewide result, but Florida isn’t (yet) a one party state. OTOH given my mention of California, maybe it is correct to question is competency despite his re-election margin. I’m not sure how many would claim that state competently governed.
Actually, he had a higher share of his state’s vote than Newsom (at least until California finds some more D ballots), which is remarkable considering that Trump won Florida by 3 points and Biden won California by almost 30. So DeSantis won over some Democrats while Newson lost some.
That explains why he was re-elected, not why it was a blowout. DeSantis beat Crist by a bigger margin than Abbot beat O’Rourke.
Also I’d point out Rubio won his in a blowout, while in 2016 he eked out a win vs Murphy 52-44. And … GOP picked up 4 seats: FL-13, FL-21, FL-5 and FL-7 (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2022/house_south/)
Overall GOP did better in FL than TX. Remember those days way back in 2020 when FL was considered s “swing state” – Trump only won by 51.2% in 2020. And Rick Scott only beat Nelson by 50.1% in 2018.
I would also add in GA gov Kemp, who crushed it even as Walker lost (*cough* went to runoff).
His increased success with Hispanic voters is pretty astounding:
“Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points — a whopping 19-point swing”
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-florida-governor.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=election-results&context=election_recirc®ion=StorylineUpdateVisual
Of course, as David B has pointed out, “Hispanic” can mean a lot of things.
The Republicans need to do so. Trump crapping on Latinos, however popular to that segment of his sizeable base, now has two, not one, but two elections proving that mass of people isn’t enough to win.
But a Republican friendly to Latinos, as he and several other Republican governors of border states are (one of whom was a two-term president) seems to work and be the way forward.
IIRC, W did terribly with Hispanics in both of his Presidential elections despite his efforts to appeal to them. That was the big surprise with Trump (of all people) and now DeSantis.
I suspect the reason is changing demographics within the “Hispanic” umbrella, plus a gradual rejection of some of the Democrats’ nuttier social ideas and economic agendas.
What you fail to understand about Latinos, and why Trump actually improved his position with them in 2020, is that the ones that can vote don’t actually LIKE the illegal immigrants, or being lumped with them, and so really don’t mind attacks on illegal immigration.
Thanks for whitesplaining that.
It’s the only kind of ‘splaining I’ll ever have, being white. Doesn’t stop me from having a Puerto Rican friend, and listening to him vent.
It’s not a racial thing, it’s a legal vs illegal immigrant thing. Legal immigrants tend to be extremely hostile to those who don’t follow the rules and enter against the law.
Indeed. Being married to a legal immigrant, that’s very true. People who went through the line generally despise line jumpers.
Especially if it’s a rich Mexican or South American vs a poor Guatemalan.
In other words, they vote like working class Whites. Blacks do too — it’s social class instead of race.
“Hispanic” is narrow and precise enough in its meaning. Asian is a much broader category geographically and culturally, yet America’s top universities have proven it is a reliable predictor of bad personality. If Asian is sufficient to predict the personalities of individuals, no doubt Hispanic can predict group voting patterns.
Hispanic covers almost 1/2 the globe.
I live in Florida. If you truly are a “freedom” minded person you would not vote for DeSantis. I am surprised that he won by as much as he did. I do know that it’s not necessarily a Crist problem. Andrew Gilliam was much more progressive. If you believe “keeping Florida free” meant opening businesses before it was safe, or not counting Covid deaths in Florida from people who died here, but didn’t live here ok, that freedom means discrimination against womens autonomy, anti Gay, book banning, threatening businesses for sensitivity training, scaring people about CRT in schools, etc. Then yeah, great Governor.
If you truly believe in freedom to assemble, don’t come here unless it’s a group he’s ok with, including Proud Boys.
I could go on and on. But, voters spoke. I have to deal with it. I will just try harder next election to make certain neither he or Trump get elected president.
What happened to Gilliam? Like he got lost in a crack house or something.
You’re an idiot.
I am a librarian with many years of experience and can assure readers that selecting one book over another is not “book banning.” If it were, every book that is not selected would be considered “banned.”
School libraries have limited budgets and cannot buy every book. You have to ask what books school libraries are not buying when they spend these limited funds on the objectionable materials. Given the recent disastrous NAEP scores, shouldn’t libraries be selecting materials that increase vocabulary, improve reading ability and include content that increases the students’ knowledge rather than materials in which those three criteria are subordinated to the pictures designed to titillate.
The books that many parents object to making available to schoolchildren in their libraries are definitely pornography and the images in the usually “graphic novels” could not be shown to anyone under 18 in a movie theater.
People who yell at high school kids doing nothing wrong with a high pitched nasally voice aren’t really “affable.”
“DeSantis appears to be a competent, articulate, and affable governor.”
Deranged partisans have complaints about him though.
Plus he doesn’t measure up to pretend standards when you pretend to believe in standards in order attack him for supposedly falling short. Every other politician gets a pass on those standards, because that’s how the finger-pointing game is played.
Why the dig on DeSantis (Crist was a bad candidate)…
DeSantis has led Florida as the State where liberty loving folks are going to in massive numbers. A work colleague moved to Venice, FL and I visited him last Oct. His neighbor just moved in (a young family..the husband was originally from Bangladesh and the wife an Italian American) from NY (a few miles from where I live) and he said he was sick of the taxes, covid lockdown, war on the bill of rights esp the 2nd and lack of moral values pushed by NYC bolshies who control the State.
DeSantis is the kind of libertarian Reason is contemptuous of …does not believe in open borders, stops MAP/Pedos in our schools, no “DIE” and “Woke” cultural Marxism pushed by govt or corporations yet a strong supporter of the free market. And lastly, he is an Italian American…Reason has a large number of folks who have problems with ethnic Americas due to old world issues….you all need to admit it…I’m sure certain writers at Reason will soon be using the “M” word (mafia) to describe DeSantis.
Isn’t he Cuban???
No. This has been yet another episode of Simple Answers to Stupid Questions.
“DeSantis is the kind of libertarian Reason is contemptuous of …does not believe in open borders, stops MAP/Pedos in our schools, no “DIE” and “Woke” cultural Marxism pushed by govt or corporations”
Lots of obfuscation and misrepresentation of the actual issues at hand, from immigration to education and free speech, but the bottom line is that DeSantis is a statist, and so are you. Not sure why you’re LARPing as a libertarian.
His popularity skyrocketed after he went after Orlando. No one else in Florida likes Orlando. Orlando is to Florida what Tampa is to Florida.
You mean Mayor Demings and Mayor Dyer for doing their level best to keep Covid deaths down. So, you really mean Orange County. I am so happy to live in Orange County where sensible governing still exists.
Can I remind you that we are all Florida citizens. That trying to disenfranchise a county, that supports most of Florida by taxes, is not a decent way to govern. His staff, Rubio’s staff, nor Scott’s staff have ever responded to a single letter or email that I have sent. I presume it’s because I have a (D) in front of me.
Rather have a D in front of me than in back of me….. wait a minute….
He’s Scott Walker 2.0 running in a redder state with a weak opponent. He’s going to flame out on the national stage big time if Trump runs and bullies him into oblivion.
Begs the question why FL is “redder” since as recently as 2020 it was considered a swing state.
Yes, that was one thing I was wondering about, too. Could it be because of DeSantis? Or is it something else?
2018 Exit polls:
Hispanics: 54% Gilliam, 44% DeSantis
2022 Exit polls
Hispanics: 40% Crist. 58% DeSantis.
Jeez, all the pre-occupation with Race and y’all don’t get it? Florida Afro-Amurican Population’s being “Replaced” by His-spanics (can be of any race:) Wouldn’t surprise me if George Zimmerman gets elected to something.
For the record: 68% vote total does not support your prejudice
U.S. House District 19 (SW FL)
Candidate Party Votes Percent
Byron Donalds*incumbent
Republican 212,929 +68.0%
Cindy Banyai
Democrat 100,155 +32.0%
I don’t think your theory pans out:
According to Wikipedia, blacks are 15% of Florida population. (And your theory seems to be that DeSantis won because there are “too few” of them.)
Well, here in Minnesota, again according to Wikipedia, there’re half as many blacks percentagewise. Yet our incumbent Democratic governor won 52% to 44%.
You didn’t read the question, a % of your “15% blacks” identify more as Cuban/Salvadoran His-spanish whatever, and don’t fall for the DemoKKKrat Koolaid.
Perhaps a higher percentage of white Minnesotans vote Democratic than do white Floridians.
Ja, dats probably correct, you betcha bippy, darn tootin!
52% of votes, or 52% of ballots?
Rubio won by 8%-points in 2016 and 16%-points in 2022 (and Demings was considered a strong candidate). It isn’t all DeSantis (unless you think DeSantis is responsible for the across-the-board red shift).
I do believe it was a straight ticket vote.
DeSantis’ well-known policy decisions, especially about COVID and lockdowns but also about protecting children from sexual predators, were so popular that they persuaded quite a few Republicans to move to Florida during the past three years. They likewise persuaded quite a few Democrats and gay-supporters to leave.
I would be in Florida myself if I could afford to move there.
Yes the guy who attended high school parties as an adult is definitely interested in stopping sexual predators
WTF does parties that someone went to in high school have to do with anything?
You’re so desperate for an argument that you’re spouting gibberish.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/05/us/desantis-high-school-teacher-georgia.html
I said as an adult. He was a teacher going to parties with high school students.
Ermahgerd, a teacher went to a graduation party. Ermahgerd!
Like Willie Sutton with Banks,
ya gotta go where the (redacted) is
NYTimes. Questionable site. Known for misrepresentations and lies.
Find a more accurate source.
DeSantis didn’t respond to requests comment. And if there was even a remote misrepresentation, Christina Pushaw would have been doing a tweet-storm about it. Alas she was strangely silent.
Not actually a source. Not responding to dubious stories from dubious media organizations is not “evidence” of anything.
That’s often expected at private boarding schools.
… I had a teacher show up at a graduation party. Nothing wrong with that unless the party was considerably wilder than the one I went to. Article is paywalled so I can’t really determine whether that was the case.
So was Ohio but that’s obviously not the case anymore.
Florida, like Ohio and Iowa, is increasingly becoming a state of follow-the-leader ignoramuses. Check it out and you will see that support for Republicans correlates positively with false beliefs about the 2020 election, global warming, and the effect of our changing world of gender. It is also increasingly becoming a state of bad parents who will forbid their daughters from getting abortions and reject children who are transgender or gay.
“If people vote differently than I did they’re obviously stuoid, awful people who engage in wrongthink. Primitive people. Savages almost. Why won’t they let my side tell them what’s good for them?”
What a pompous attitude you have.
Go ahead and look it up. “The facts have a well known liberal bias.”
I don’t think you’re actually able to judge “facts”. You’re one of the more politically extreme posters on this board (in either direction) which is really saying something.
There’s no way that 60% of Floridians believe that the 2020 election was stolen, yet they voted for DeSantis. Your climate opinion is way extreme relative to the “facts”, but you don’t care.
And DeSantis tried to stop the sexualization of elementary children – in a clumsy way because there’s no surgical way to do it. That last one is a very poplar thing with Florida parents, even though you think they’re a bunch of ignoramuses because they won’t believe in your progressive utopia. It has nothing to do with changing attitudes toward gender. Unlike you these parents want to protect their children rather than turn them over to assholes like you who put grinding your political ax before their best interest.
DeSanits is a pandemic denier, a climate change denier and satanic-panics about kids and CRT – I think he might be the extremist here.
He didn’t deny the Pandemic, only that shutting down everything was the way to deal with it (obviously wasn’t), same with climate change, only that even if the average temperature goes up a few degrees doesn’t really matter (I like it a little warmer) and if CRT’s not being taught anywhere what’s the big deal about saying it can’t be taught anywhere.
Obviously it was the way to deal with, he just didn’t have the balls to stick with it. The average global temperature going up a few degrees will kill millions and probably end up with Florida mostly underwater. If CRTs not being taught anywhere why lie about it?
These would be the “facts” laid out in DNC talking points and read to us by DNC operatives in the media?
Trying out for Rev. Kirkland’s sock puppet?
captcrisis 44 mins ago
Flag Comment Mute User
Florida, like Ohio and Iowa, is increasingly becoming a state of follow-the-leader ignoramuses.”
That would explain the success of Waltz, newsom and the idiots in Mich and NY.
Note that the per capita death rates from covid were remarkably similar in almost every state irrespective of the mitigation policies adopted , and irrespective if the policies in the state were left wing or right wing.
The per capita death rates from covid were remarkably similar in almost every state irrespective of the mitigation policies adopted , and irrespective if the policies in the state were left wing or right wing.
Look it up. You’re wrong.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
typo on my part Per capita death rates by age group were remarkably similar
by age group was inadvertently omitted.
My statement after correction of the typo/omission of “per capita death rates by age group” is correct.
The age adjustment formula tends to flatten the curve because deaths per population in younger age groups are inherently lower. Put another way it overweights the relatively equal mortalities among 0-45 year olds. It also masks the reality that states with disproportionately young/old populations will experience different transmission patterns.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/03/the-changing-political-geography-of-covid-19-over-the-last-two-years/
You’re basically arguing that the 1.8x statistically significant elevation in mortality among pro-Trump areas (see link) is a 1:1 result of their age, but that’s not supported by the age-adjustment formula and demonstrated false by the Pew study. Resistance to public health measures were statistically significant predictors of mortality.
I should add that the Pew study also notes the change in pattern as public health measures came on line. Blue areas (denser population) had large mortalities early on, followed by lower mortalities compared to intervention-resistant areas later in the pandemic.
the pew study does a poor job of analyzing death rates by age – which is by far the best metric.
The pew study you cited shows a heavy political bias.
Other than that, its great.
try to spot political bias in a study, its a great tool in analyzing the validity of a study.
A conclusion that bears a political implication is not the same thing as a study that is politically biased.
Other than asserting your study is “best” do you have any response to the critiques about flattening and the changing course of the pandemic?
Reallynotbob 7 mins ago
Flag Comment Mute User
A conclusion that bears a political implication is not the same thing as a study that is politically biased.
“Other than asserting your study is “best” do you have any response to the critiques about flattening and the changing course of the pandemic?”
1) A study that starts out with a political bias almost always will have a politically biased conclusion.
2) In any study – you want to measure apples to apples – Can you think of a better metric than comparing death by age group – of course not, – its just about the closest apples to apples metric.
The pew study side steps the best available metric.
3) There a lots of reasons for the change in death rates during the course of the pandemic – though noticably the Pew Study did not take into account death rates by age group – That omission is quite telling especially since that metric remains the best metric.
4) One of the reasons the NE corridor had a decline in death rates in the later stages of pandemic is the liberal NE corridor burned off a lot of dry tinder in the early stages of the pandemic, so naturally the death rate declined.
Joe_dallas — About New England, you are full of beans. New England, New York, and New Jersey got the brutal initial brunt of the pandemic. Most of the rest of the nation escaped that. By itself, that would tend to make the NE death rate higher, not lower, because NE also went on to experience the entire subsequent duration along with the others. That means your death rate comparison is premised on a notably shorter and inherently safer period of exposure outside the Northeast. That invalidates your conclusion.
What the NE initial experience did accomplish was to impress on nearly everyone that Covid was an emergency fully worthy of life-disrupting interventions. Later in the pandemic, while virus deniers elsewhere were dropping like flies, the jam-packed, highly diverse city of Somerville was going around universally masked—because if you went out in public without a mask you could be fined $300. For some reason that may not be coincidence, Somerville’s subsequent case experience was uniformly better than most of the nation’s, despite (or maybe because of) one of the highest rates of testing anywhere.
You are a politically-motivated virus denier who has not thought this through. You should either back off, or work on building forthright comparisons.
lantrop – you comments indicate that you very familiar with the effectiveness of the mitigation protocols
the drop in case rates also coincided with the well known hopes simpson curve.
Lantrop
You also need to get a better understanding of data
the case rate is pretty meaningless.
The important metric is per capita death rates, more importantly death rate by age group and if available death rate by age group and by health status (as noted by Brett).
The death rate by age group was very consistent across every state except VT< NH , ME, WA and OR which had much lower rates and NY and NJ which were significantly above the average range. MA was right in the middle with no particular region showing an anamoly.
David – other than covid for the most part following the hope-simpson curve across the US and western europe – not being a thing , you are right
Though Edgar hope-simpson may disagree with you.
You act like the most supercilious and dickish of scientists but without the actual expertise.
At least I have sufficient expertise to ascertain the reasonableness of the conclusion
You on the other hand (along with most of the other leftist posting here) have never demonstrated even the slightest understanding of data or even basic science.
David – my statement remains correct
All the while, you cant point to a single statement I have made that is incorrect – precisely due to the point I made – which you and sarcastro lack the rudimentary knowledge of the subject matter.
States Ranked by Age-Adjusted COVID Deaths
”Here we see dramatic state-to-state differences in cumulative age-adjusted COVID deaths per capita to date, spanning a range of over five fold. In the end, some states that adopted dramatically divergent policies had comparable outcomes (Florida and California, for example).
Mississippi is exceptionally high. A few regional clusters have fared markedly better than the rest: Vermont, New Hampshire & Maine, Oregon & Washington, and Hawaii & Puerto Rico.”
It’s an interesting resource. It turns out that once you normalize the numbers to age, obesity, and vaccination rates among people 65 or older, death rates have no correlation to speak of with mitigation strategies such as lockdowns.
Such strategies did have a pretty high correlation with suicide rates and unemployment, though… Go figure.
The ideal policy seems to have been just encouraging elderly people to to get vaccinated, and to otherwise leave people alone.
Yeah, all that means is that in 2020 the ideal policy, (Retrospectively, of course.) was to do everything possible to get a vaccine earlier, and otherwise leave people alone. Oh, wait, that’s what Trump did, so it can’t be true…
When the interventions don’t make a difference, and have costs, your best move is to just not do anything. Frequently, when you don’t know that they’ll make a difference, and know damned well the interventions have costs, that’s still your best move. “First, do no harm.”
Brett
A few comments on that survey, Death rates by age group remains the best single metric for measuring the effectiveness of the mitigation protocols ( factoring in health status would be better metric, though it brings in too much subjectivity into the analysis – otherwise ti would be better metric)
1) the weighting formula can skew the results.
2) the death rate by age group for each state fell within a very narrow band with the exception of VT, NH, ME, WA, OR, which were significantly below that narrow band (25-30% below) . The study is very consistent with my analysis.
3) However NY and NJ were significanty higher death rates by age group. 20-30% higher and outside the narrow range of all the other states. Yet the study shows NY and NJ to be right in the middle. That purported result is dubious.
4) MI and MN were well within the narrow range, though slightly above the median . Florida likewise was well within the narrow band, though slightly below. Though those three states along with a few others which were flipped in the studies analysis, which indicates there was some preferential weighting.
” Death rates by age group remains the best single metric for measuring the effectiveness of the mitigation protocols ”
I really don’t know how you can say that.
Age adjusted death rate correlated to “stringency index”: R² 0.177 Not great, but I guess it worked a little. Or did it?
Obesity and age adjusted: R² 0.04
Oops, it was mostly about how fat people were.
Vax over 65 and age adjusted: R² 0.081
In fact, it was more about how fat they were than how vaxed they were!
Obesity, Vax over 65 and age adjusted: R² 0.03
Throw all three in the mix, and mitigation protocols predicted diddly squat.
I shouldn’t need to tell you that R²=0.03 means, “Basically squat”, right? All that is going on here is that the states were people tend not to be fat were, on average, more into lockdowns.
Wait, it’s worse than that. Because poverty and income inequality are more correlated to death rates (R²=0.271) even after adjusting for obesity, Vax status, and age, than mitigation was without correcting for them. And mitigation made people poorer! One way of interpreting that is that mitigation actually worked a little, but all the gains got soaked up by the increased poverty putting people more at risk.
Oh, and one final tidbit: The correlation between Trump vote and death, adjusted for obesity, age, and vax: R²=0.001 Whoa, no correlation AT ALL. I guess voting for Trump didn’t kill people.
That chart at that link has Michigan and NJ, which had very strict lockdowns, with a higher per capita death rate than Florida, which didn’t.
What is the point that you are trying to make?
That the actual data says that lockdowns didn’t do diddle squat to stop Covid. It only looks that they might have worked if you don’t adjust for some really obvious confounding variables, because some of the pro-lockdown states had skinny people.
In fact, being skinny was better than being vaxed.
Really, what the data says is that you should have totally blown off lockdowns, and given everybody free Weight Watcher memberships.
I agree with you – my question was to captcrisis
ZZTOP – Brett & I basically came to the same conclusion – albeit with different methodologies – Brett using health as the better metric, My self using death by age group.
Both of us concluding that mitigation had very limited effect if any.
Captcrisis instead uses a common theme of the left while displaying weak analytical skills, uses very deceptive and misleading cherrypicked data to convey inaccurate conclusions.
though In captcrisis defense, most of the left lack the skill needed to spot common deceptions.
All states and governments in all history are follow-the-leader ignoramuses.
How apropos. Did you catch CNN yesterday, which referred to Gov. deSantis’ enforcement of laws against voter fraud as cheating? Apparently an election is only fair (to them) if the left gets to commit all the fraud they want with impunity. No wonder Hillary accused Trump of cheating in 2016 and wanted to overturn that election.
Let’s be specific about the quote.
“Yesterday, [DeSantis] won by 20 percentage points,” Navarro said. “Why? Because he gamed the system. Because he turned Florida into an unlevel playing field. They changed election laws, making it harder to vote by mail. They paraded a bunch of people, black people that they arrested for voting fraud, and paraded them in front of national media. He created an election police.”
She did say “unlevel.” She did not say cheating. It is correct to say that many in the media have expressed concern about voter suppression problems in FL and other states.
Where “voter suppression” usually means nothing more than just not adopting the exact policies Democrats wanted.
Democrats want people to vote. Republicans prefer to be able to exclude certain types of people.
Usually dead people. Also people who are filling out the ballots of other people.
Democrats…well…
When Democratic Ex-Congressmen are doing this in Pennsylvania for years, you gotta wonder.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-us-congressman-and-philadelphia-political-operative-sentenced-30-months-prison
Democrats think corruption is bad, and like it when corrupt officials get caught. Republicans think voter suppression is legitimate.
This is virtually no voter suppression – it remains an invalid / non reality based leftist talking point.
limiting voting to legal voters is not voter suppression
That’s what Republicans claim, anyway.
Nige –
there is medicine for your delusions
It’s called ‘not supressing votes.’
Like how “fraud” usually means nothing more than “not the exact result Republicans wanted.”
The difference is that one can actually measure both fraud and suppression.
In this case, it was “telling people they were eligible to vote and then arresting them after they registered.”
Seems like that would be considered bad whether you’re a Republican or Democrat, but what do I know?
I’d like to see the details of how exactly they were “told they were eligible to vote”.
Amendment 4 quite clearly restored the right to vote only after all outstanding fines, restitution, and court costs were paid. I’ve previously linked to interviews with the promoters making this clear, before the election. (After they won, they tried a bait and switch, changing their claims about the amendment.)
Florida can rightly be dinged for having a really messed up process for informing convicts of the total of these costs. I won’t argue about that.
So, looking up one of these cases. She wasn’t told she had her rights restored. She assumed she had her rights restored on the basis of just serving the time, and registered to vote on that basis. When they did the check, they found she wasn’t qualified, deleted her registration, and notified her.
She then voted anyway.
I think she might have a good defense if she can plausibly claim she missed that notification. OTOH, she would have been notified when she tried to vote that her registration had been rescinded, which should have clued her in.
Basically, it’s not that the state told her she could vote. It’s that they failed to be emphatic enough in telling her she couldn’t.
Ohio is absolutely wild. Voters just keep electing republicans despite them being involved in extremely blatant corruption. The Republican party paid zero political price for its legislative leadership and top utility regulator taking massive bribes from First Energy to pass a ratepayer funded bailout of failing plants. They paid zero price for ignoring a constitutional amendment and associated court orders on redistricting. And Pat DeWine paid zero price for a flagrant violation of judicial ethics by staying on the redistricting case (among others).
It’s incredible.
Poor representatives of a good policy platform are preferable to exemplars of a terrible platform. If you think a parties goals would make your life worse if achieved, competence in achieving them isn’t a plus. A sickly, inattentive dog is a better choice for a family pet than an exemplary grizzly bear.
But they did make their lives worse! HB 6 increased energy rates for everyone!
You support Biden. That leaves you no leg to stand on to complain about energy costs.
It actually leaves me plenty of legs to stand on because assuming Biden is increasing energy costs….HB 6 would have made it even worse had it not been repealed in light of the scandal.
Apparently Ohio are about to hold days of hearing on anti-trans measures, including the forcible medical detransitioning of trans teens. Pure savagery.
Ahh, the old “Add-a-dick-to-me” procedure!!
Transphobia is obviously a winning strategy amongst Republicans.
When did chopping off a Male’s perfectly healthy Penis/Testicles, Females perfectly healthy Breasts/Vulva become acceptable?? Didn’t there used to be MTV telethons against “Female Genital Mutiliation”??? SMFH
Frank
If you’re talking about transition, it’s been acceptable for a while now. You seem to be mixing it up with something that happens without consent.
Castration/Emasculation/Mastectomy/Vulvectomy “Acceptable for a while now”?? Glad I don’t live in your native Somalia…
Frank
Yes, well, your freudian terrors aside, treatments for trans people – and cis people – have been available for a very long time.
You know as much about Ohio and Iowa as you do about Chinese history.
That’s the thing about Chinese History, you read about it and 30 minutes later you’re hungry.
You can also check it out and see that support for Democratic candidates correlates positively with false beliefs about the number of genders, inability to explain the difference between a man and a woman, and fantasies that an “assault weapons” ban would significantly reduce the murder rate. Neither party has a shortage of ignoramuses (ignorami?)
See if they aren’t transphobic and support gun control measures? What ignoramuses.
There’s no such thing as a transgender child, but I encourage you and all other left-wingers to continue insisting there is. There’s a reason Republicans are winning 5M+ in the House popular vote, and your delusional claims are Exhibit A.
The families and friends of people with young trans relatives or friends are generally horrified at your utter hatred of them.
I’m not sure why you believe that pointing out that something doesn’t exist is the same as hating that thing. Do I hate unicorns too?
Let’s check your credibility on what exists.
What is your position on Christianity, Judaism, Islam, or any other flavor of supernatural religion?
People gullible enough to fall for superstition are not credible sources on what does or does not exist in the reality-based world.
its not hatred of those suffering a mental illness – its hatred for the false diagnosis of the persons mental illness and the embracement of modern day josef mengelee/tuskegee experiments in the false name of compassion.
Its a hatred for the irreversible mutilation the persons body – Rational individuals recognize transgender for what it really is.
Many reasons.
He addresses issues directly, responsibly, quickly and in plain language.
He seems to be everywhere in Florida every day dealing with problems, announcing projects, meeting constituents, celebrating and commiserating.
He comes across as modest, mature, honest and a family man.
Every day every Florida news publication attack DeSantis with front page articles that could be parody they are so fanciful; they all endorsed Christ. Desantis stays above that media nonsense.
This is an accurate explanation. (I’m a Florida resident.)
Thank you for answering the question. (As opposed to the others who apparently didn’t read it!)
I don’t live there, but my sister and BiL are Fort Myer Beach residents for the past 25 years. Both were hardcore Democrats (Chicago), but this time around they voted for DeSantis.
My sister said they voted for him because he kept the state open during the Lockdowns and small businesses (they own one) survived. Plus, he was smart and organized enough to prepare for Hurricane Ian. He and his management team had thousands of trucks and crews from around the South East all staged up in the north of the state. Ready to drive in and start repairs as soon as an “All Clear” was issued. He didn’t wait for “Help from Washington”, FEMA or the obligatory Photo Op visits from the President and Cabinet members.
On the other hand, a friend in Sarasota that I spoke to yesterday (another Chicago refugee) was angry that DeSantis got re-elected because; “Krist would have done a better job and DeSantis is a crook!”. Of course, she also thinks Illinois and Chicago are well run, safe cities. (Never mind that she moved to Florida as 20 years ago because of the property taxes) So there’s that.
I think that’s a big part. People who have seen what blue-state cities are run like in person, versus the effect with a well run GOP state. Effects like this matter.
But if you’ve never really seen the effect in person of long term Democratic rule…then you fall to the old standby.
Almost every city is dark blue. Some do better, and some worse. But I think your brush is too broad.
I’d favorably compare Boston, NYC, DC, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, etc., against Miami, Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans…
In those places that have 1-party rule at both the state and city level, you’re seeing breakdown in the governance of the cities. There’s little to no effective pushback from the opposition to keep things in check, which encourages corruption and ineffective governance and inefficiencies.
Some of these cities were effectively starting from a higher level, but they are driven downwards. There’s a reason NYC did better under GOP mayors.
Cities are hellscapes has been a right wing nonsense take for ages now.
Plays well with the yahoos who barely set foot in them.
Makes you look like a sucker to anyone who actually lives in one.
When large businesses flee big cities…you gotta wonder.
https://www.wral.com/big-companies-keep-leaving-chicago-whats-going-on/20509915/
A local story that does not come near to backing up what you’ve been saying.
Dunno where you live but the pictures of cities you paint is utterly wrong. It’s not robocop out there.
Once again, we get into the familiar pattern.
I offer proof to back up my views. Sarcastro offers nothing but questions and doubts about reality.
Come back when you’re ready to actually back up your views with evidence.
You have a broad view which includes causality, you offer an anecdote with no causality.
That’s not proof, that’s you looking for a story.
I lived for a decade in San Francisco, during the 90’s. We visit regularly to visit family. Back then we had a homeless “crisis” culminating in a tent encampment in the park across from city hall, cost Mayor Agnos his re-election bid. IIRC the homeless count was a bit over 1,000 and panhandlers were the single biggest annoyance. Never once feared for personal safety.
Today the estimate is more than 7,000 homeless and there is a city department whose sole purpose is to clean up human feces. They even have an app for the folks to report with. Last time we were there, we were approached by street folks asking whether we wished to purchase drugs. This was not in the Tenderloin.
Robocop is what a Hollywood studio came up with for their version dystopian nightmare. No, life in the cities is not that. But it’s a lot worse than it used to be.
Edit – sorry to go off topic
I do not deny San Fran is not what it was in the early 2000s when last I was there. Loved it there.
But it’s crime is not up notably, even if it feels less save. And it’s homelessness crisis is making headlines because of how much if an outlier it is.
AL is as usual overstating his case and repeating stuff he’s been fed that just shows hum gullible.
I was in NYC last weekend. Lovely and safe. Not clean, but it never was.
“But it’s crime is not up notably even if it feels less save.”
Maybe not in frequency (haven’t seen the stats) but there have been quite a number of extremely violent attacks and home invasions recently, and I rarely heard of such things while there. And the perpetrators are more brazen – I personally witnessed a car double park in GG Park near the Arboretum, kid gets out with a hammer, broke the rear window of an SUV and grabbed a backpack. Sunday afternoon, couple of hundred people nearby.
Yes, I know, anecdote =/= data.
“The poll by KQED station asked 1,653 people in the City by the Bay how they felt about crime, policing and violence in San Francisco. When asked, ‘During the last five years, was any item you owned ever stolen from you, or did that not happen during that time?’ a shocking 45 percent said yes.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11215923/Survey-reveals-HALF-San-Francisco-residents-robbed-five-years.html
I asked a cousin who lives there, his house has been broken into twice and he lives in a “nice” area.
No way. Gavin Newsom had a ten year plan for homelessness in SF in 2003: https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Newsom-details-plan-for-homeless-Mayor-elect-2509363.php
Therefore it got fixed and there are no homeless in SF. Liberals are great at this stuff!
Quit galloping and stay on subject Ben.
I’m pretty sure the subject is that Dems always make life worse for people.
I live in Seattle (and regret it) and lived in San Francisco before and I have in-laws that I visit in other cities, as well as some in small towns in red states. You are wrong, or your standards are incredibly low. Cities are not quite a “hellscape”, sure, but they are manifestly unsafe and crappy compared to even surrounding suburban areas.
Moreover; I am an immigrant and while I accept the data showing US cities are much safer than where I’m from, they somehow manage to feel less safe – the level of low level crime, nuisance and dilapidation is 3rd-world (I grew up in collapsing 2nd-world country – it didn’t /look/ as bad there even if it was factually less safe).
You’ve obviously not lived in San Francisco in recent times.
Ore that AL has a habit of making exaggerated and overly general claims.
Even if every city was like SF he’d still not have proof of his thesis that it’s making people vote Republican because it’s a horror show and all the fault of Democratic mayors.
did you determine what the “DeSantis is a crook!” comment was based on. or did you imply that her perspective on honesty and ethics was poisoned by her life in Chicago?
Its pretty unlikely that one democratic voter has any inside knowledge about some DeSantis scandal the media and Crist were completely unaware of.
Seems like an irrational predjudice that’s not worth delving into.
another perspective:
https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2022/11/10/learning-the-midterm-lessons-from-florida-n64248
Petty says DeSantis has done several things very well. First, he’s picked his political battles wisely; engaging on education issues that matter to parents and fighting to keep the state open during the COVID pandemic, to name a couple of examples. But DeSantis has also been capable; Ryan pointed to the governor’s recent handling of the response to Hurricane Ian as one reason why DeSantis isn’t just liked but is trusted by so many Floridians.
I think there’s a few things going on.
1. There was a pretty large exodus of blue-state residents during COVID who went to Florida…and stayed there. Florida is the #1 state for net migration since 2019, with more than 250,000 new residents. Many of these new residents saw the effect of blue state lockdowns, and voted accordingly. Additionally, many Hispanics were hit hard by the lockdown in other areas…but not Florida.
2. DeSantis appeals to Hispanics, winning them by a majority according to the exit polls. Hispanics like him as a governor. This is decimating towards long term Democratic prospects.
3. DeSantis likewise outright won Miami Dade county. That is impressive for a Republican.
It’s worth noting that he doesn’t have appeal across all Hispanics, but rather primarily Cuban ex-pats. This is because those folks lived under actual horrible socialism/communism, so when the Republicans keep calling Democrats “socialists”, that language is extremely effective to this particular subset of voters.
It also helps that modern Democrats are in fact socialists and communists, along with leaders of BLM.
:eyeroll:
I see you forgot to take your meds this morning.
“Democrats are in fact socialists and communists.”
And Republicans are half-educated, roundly bigoted losers concentrated in deplorable backwaters.
Where is the hope for America?
It could be that Republicans tend to be half-educated, illiterate (couldn’t define socialist on a bet), disaffected bigots (the kind who regularly use vile racial slurs, for example).
Ed, go on blogs run by people who actually are socialists and read what they have to say about the Democrats. You’ll find socialists hate the Democrats almost as much as you do.
Bernie Sanders hates the Democrats?
Have you read some of the things he’s actually said about the Democrats?
Has he said anything? He should “come out” as Bernice Sanders after Hillary Rodman cut his balls off.
Outside of “Hey, vote for me for President”?
“Noooooo! All Latinos except Cubans still hate him!!!”
You are confusing him with Trump. Which is what this analysis is all about.
“t’s worth noting that he doesn’t have appeal across all Hispanics, but rather primarily Cuban ex-pats. ”
That analysis is about 30 years out of date. The original generations of Cuban ex-pats form a much smaller percentage of FL’s hispanic population than they used to, and for quite a while we were hearing that their children and grandchildren were much more liberal and inclined to vote D.
What are you talking about? We’ve seen a pretty big influx of Cubans since Obama ended the embargo, especially in S. Fla.
Do you have any good recent statistics on country-of-origin breakdown? This is 10 years out of date, and shows Cubans (foreign- and native-born) at 26% of the hispanic/latino population in FL.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanics_and_Latinos_in_Florida
There are only a small number of Venezuelans noted, and I had understood those numbers have increased significantly in the past decade.
This (from 2020) has them at 23% of immigrants to Florida, the largest group from any single country of origin.
The next highest group is Haitians, at only 8%.
https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-florida
It’s also worth noting that an increasing number of Hispanic-Americans are from South America, and are fleeing socialist governments, so they are very down on socialists or political parties that welcome socialists, as the Democrats do.
Lol, have you ever spoken to an American socialist?
They don’t feel very welcomed by the Democrats.
I know a lot of people who call themselves socialists. They usually vote Democratic. There may be some political essentialists out there who would rate my friends as not being true socialists.
They’d hardly vote bloody Republican.
And people who fled socialism in Latin America would hardly vote goddamned* Democrat.
*As we Americans say.
Probably not the ones who fled CIA-backed military juntas, though.
Very true. And the people who fled the Nazis in Europe also have a different perspective on many things. But in America, voting is mostly confined to people who are currently living.
What do they want, the CIA to go back down and install a friendly dictator?
That might not be a bad idea — starting with Venezuela.
Cubans are some of it, absolutely. But the number of Cubans hasn’t changed dramatically in the last 4 years. Where is DeSantis picking up the extra 14% of Hispanics from
It’s not the number of former Cubans that changed. It’s Republicans’ rhetoric. They’ve been hammering hard against “socialism” which is shifting the party lean of the Cuban-American population.
Umm, yeah, and Disanto’s the first one to do it. SMFH
Democrats call *themselves* socialists. Have you heard of AOC, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Presley? Don’t blame this on Republicans labeling them lol
They call themselves “democratic socialists” which is an entirely different thing (less USSR and more UK).
Republicans are disingenuously conflating the two.
If your thesis is that Democrats are suffering from a lack of support among a subset of Hispanic voters due to an unearned conflation of them with socialists, step one would be to stop referring to themselves as socialists — whether USSR flavor or UK flavor. It makes zero sense that you’re laying this at the feet of Republicans. The GOP would be remiss for NOT pointing out that a very vocal group of Democrats is voluntarily associating themselves with the label “socialist”.
He got confused for a sec and thought words meant things.
The most popular Democrat politicians are voluntarily referring to themselves as “Democratic socialists” and he’s mad at the GOP for that turning off Cuban Americans. Imagine “we’re not Nazis, we’re DEMOCRATIC Nazis. Words mean things, you dunce!” But all that being said, please do continue insisting it’s the fault of your opposition (for accurately describing the socialists) or the voters (for being turned off by the term).
I’m sure you’ll agree that Republicans have disavowed “liberalism” under that same logic, right? Because it sounds like “liberal”, which is apparently the exclusive domain of Democrats?
It’s not my fault if you people are too stupid to understand the difference between two similar-sounding terms.
That doesn’t mean they’re actually the same thing.
Additionally, please continue calling voters stupid.
You’re the one who claimed they can’t tell the difference between Socialism and Democratic-Socialism.
“Democratic People’s Republic” means what?
So then I guess Kleppe’s whole semantic game here is dumb, eh? Because anyone can call themselves anything!
“When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more, nor less.”
I hate that quote. It’s satire, and not actually how language works.
Maybe it’s branding and not true, maybe it’s a Peoples Republic of Judea splitters thing. But after explaining that you are wrong to conflate socialists with Democratic Socialists, flipping the board and declaring nothing means anything is just a sign of bad faith.
Do not forget that Easy Germany was called the German Democratic Republic.
Two Words:
Charlie Christ
I’d say a Stuttering Tattooed Circus Freak would win against CC but that’s insulting to Stuttering Tattooed Circus Freaks.
Frank
But Uncle Festerman did win. ;-b
Bingo!
Been a FL voter for more than 4 decades and still have vivid memories of how lousy Charlie Crist actually was at his job. It’s not a high bar to get “better than Charlie Crist”.
1. Florida Hispanics have been sold a bill of goods that the Democrats are socialists in the style of Fidel Castro.
2. Florida Republicans spent a boatload of money on ads claiming Democrats want to groom children and defund the police.
Basically, the GOP spent the campaign demonizing the Democrats and it worked.
you left out the large number of Military who claim Florida/Texas as a “Home State” after being stationed there. Primarily for tax purposes. My dad did a year of Flight School in Texas and claimed it for the rest of his 30 years in the Air Force, voting absentee the entire time. I did the same for FL.
So voter fraud, then.
Because God knows nobody has demonized DeSantis. I mean, nobody except 80% of the media, give or take.
Floridians saw him trying to keep the state open during the pandemic. They saw how well the state handled Ian they like that he stood up for what parents wanted related to the schools.
Your points are just made up bullshit. And are you really so naive to think that political campaigns demonizing the opponent are at all unusual? Most people ignore that crap. You should see what the Dems did to Abbott down here. And he won.
Bevis, the question posed was why DeSantis did *better* in 2022 than he did in 2018, and in your usual zeal to what about, you completely ignored that question. Maybe you could stick to the subject?
The emotional punch of demonizing someone by claiming they’re trying to groom children and turn us into Cuba is simply not on the same level as demonizing someone by talking about his attacks on Disney’s speech or anti-immigrant positions. Those two types of attacks are not the same thing. One type packs a gut punch the other simply does not.
Most people do not ignore that crap. If they did, politicos would recognize that it doesn’t work and quit doing it. But it does work.
If you say my side was bad I won’t respond. I’ll just cry whatabout.
Ok, fine. It’s pretty simple. He did better this time because unlike last time the people of Florida have seen his performance as governor and apparently they are very pleased with how he’s done.
You’re trying to turn something simple into progressive Democratic talking points, which is worthless.
The issue is not whose side is or is not bad. The issue is whether, in response to a narrowly drafted question, it’s helpful to change the subject to the other side. It’s the same problem that would arise if the question were “why did Hitler hate Jews” and someone spoke up “but what about Stalin”? Whatever bad things may be said about Stalin, he sheds no light on why *Hitler* hated Jews. I’m really surprised that you don’t seem to get that.
And while I would agree that enough Floridians were pleased with his performance to give him better numbers in 2022 than he had in 2018, I don’t think that’s the explanation. I think it’s a far more likely explanation that if you tell a bunch of Florida Hispanics, who used to vote Democrat, that he’s saving Florida from becoming Cuba, and you tell a bunch of social conservatives that the Dems are grooming their kids, that it’s going to make a difference.
Or if you try to sell a bunch of hispanics on goofy progressive ideas they’ll say “nah” and switch to the other side.
I’ve spent 15 years living in two different hispanic-majority cities and they’re not nearly as liberal oriented as some other minorities may be. Pretty centrist really.
And listen to yourself. “They liked his performance as governor but that’s not why they voted for him”. It was evil right wing misinformation. C’mon. You have zero basis to believe that it was advertising that changed it other than your political bias. Truth is that out here in non-political land we mostly find political advertising tiresome and ignore it because it is by nature bullshit. “I can’t wait for the election to be over so these adds will stop” is something you hear a lot.
And nobody believes that grooming shit. What they object to is the sexualization of very young children, which virtually 100% of parents have been objecting to since the beginning of time. Pull off your partisan blinders and see what is.
You know, you sure are investing a whole lot of energy trying to disprove my points for someone who thinks they’re non-issues.
There’s nothing to disprove. You have no basis to say it was advertising other than just asserting it to be true – as opposed to the simple point that the citizens of Florida are satisfied with his performance.
It’s your job to prove your points, which you’re not even trying to do. You’re just blurting out Democratic dogma with nothing to support it other than your opinion.
It would cause you physical pain to consider that maybe he’s just a competent governor.
‘And nobody believes that grooming shit’
A lot of people seem to believe that grooming shit. Insisting that it’s really ‘sexualizing children’ you object to doesn’t mean you aren’t responding to the same shit.
Krychek_2 55 mins ago
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1. Florida Hispanics have been sold a bill of goods that the Democrats are socialists in the style of Fidel Castro.
2. Florida Republicans spent a boatload of money on ads claiming Democrats want to groom children and defund the police.
Basically, the GOP spent the campaign demonizing the Democrats and it worked.
Well democrats could stop that demonization of there fellow democrats if they would stop promoting those policies
just a thought!
Democrats would have to have had those policies in the first place.
That, plus the Democratic nominee for US Senate in Florida is a former Orlando police chief who, as a member of the US House, got lots of federal money for local police. Didn’t stop her Republican opponent from running ads claiming she wants to defund the police.
Because her party screwed her over by way overplaying their hand with the “defund the police” stuff. It was a stupid concept to begin with, but much like Trump to the republicans the democrats are infected by progressive crazies who have super extreme ideas.
And yes, having a society without police is an extremist idea.
Yeah the Democrat campaign this mid-term has been wall to wall defund the police.
I’m not even sure what’s extreme about it. Police are over-financed, over-equipped and unaccountable. Thinking this is bad is extreme?
Except almost no Democrat actually supports defunding the police; that’s mostly a Republican fabrication.
AOC? Beto? The Squad? The entire Democratic administration of Minneapolis? Or San Francisco?
Bullshit. Pull off your goddamn blinders.
Did they run on defund the police? If they did, quite a lot of them got re-elected. Does that make it extreme?
Republicans did not run on Trump.
Funny how that works, ain’t it?
Don’t want to be tarred with “Defund the Police”?
Don’t champion it.
Except for the ones endorsed by him or who championed his Big Lie. Who lost.
” Republicans did not run on Trump. ”
How many Republican candidates went onstage with Trump at rural rallies?
Quotes, bevis.
“Pull off your goddamn blinders.”
It’s always narrative and storytelling with them. The current story is that “almost no Democrat actually supports defunding the police”. They think you’re dumb for not understanding that the story changed and you just need to be educated on the new narrative.
Not only did they support it…they did it.
https://www.austinmonitor.com/data-graphic/austin-police-department-budget-2012-2022/
Not defunding, you foolish man:
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/13/austin-city-council-cut-police-budget-defund/
“Except almost no Democrat actually supports defunding the police; that’s mostly a Republican fabrication.”
The Seattle city council would like to have a word with you…
same with portland, Minneapolis, Waltz, ellison to name a few others
Theory doesn’t track. Note, the current boost is relatively specific to Florida. Those “policies” Kyrchek references aren’t specific to Florida (in so much as they are true).
“Florida Republicans spent a boatload of money on ads claiming Democrats want to groom children and defund the police.”
Perhaps all the gnashing of teeth over the Parental Rights bill and all of the chanting for defund the police planted the idea?
“Florida Hispanics have been sold a bill of goods that the Democrats are socialists in the style of Fidel Castro.”
Krychek_2 is essentially saying Hispanics are so dumb that they need someone like Krychek_2 to protect them from learning the wrong things.
Several reasons, but one big one: He’s really good at projecting what people want to hear. To the die-hard Trump supporters, he’s every bit as much of a culture crusader as Trump (legalizing mowing down protesters, attacking Disney, limiting rights of companies to require vax), but to the moderate Republicans, he seems like a competent governor (re-opening quickly after COVID, doing well on disaster response), because he actually was his first two years.
Somehow, he’s managed to keep the positive aspects of both sides of the coin in Republican media while retaining few, if any, of the drawbacks. Although, this also explains why dems hate him: We saw him shift from competent conservative governance to culture warrior and now we see him trying to weasel his way out of the harm he’s caused.
Well put. I wrote long post after you but maybe it’s really just this simple: DeSantis understood Florida is a red state now and he made sure all the parts of his base were motivated to show up for him.
imaginary “harm”
The multiple federal judges who have slapped down laws he’s championed because they violated constitutional rights might disagree with you there.
Cool story.
Yeah all those judges were Hispanic gay Clinton appointees or worse!
DeSantis is a master explainer. I compare him to Ronald Regan.
Whenever he is attacked, he replies in a press conference explaining the rationale for deciding as he did. At least to me, those explanations are very rational and persuasive. Frequently the result is that particular attack from the left ceases after DeSantis’ explanation.
Republicans have lacked a public explainer for a long time. Mitch McConnel and IMO all current Republican Senators are terrible. Trump appeals to emotions, not rationality. George Bush, Bob Dole and Alan Simpson were pretty good. Regan was a master.
My hope is that DeSantis becomes the new Regan.
Clingers so ignorant that they can’t spell the names of their heroes are among my favorite culture war casualties.
It is precisely for this reason I never type anything on a phone.
Thrice. That is not likely a typing error.
Maybe he just really likes Donald Regan.
I live in the Florida Panhandle and I really think it’s Crist. No one trusts him after he changed parties.
Check out CC’s Ron Jeremy moustache during his Wake Forest QB days.
Maybe but I’m sure a rematch with Andrew Gilliam would have been 80-20 DeSantis.
whatever happened to Gilliam anyway? like he fell off the face of the earth.
That’s what happens when you get charged with Conspiracy, Fraud, and more.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndfl/pr/former-tallahassee-mayor-and-gubernatorial-candidate-and-associate-charged-conspiracy
I lived in Florida for 28 years, but had to move for family reasons. However, I was glad to leave, as the costs for property taxes and homeowner’s insurance were skyrocketing.
In 2018, DeSantis was a little known commodity as a US congressman outside of his constituency. The same was basically true of Gillum as the mayor of Tallahassee. Their race was very close, but I was thankful DeSantis pulled it out. DeSantis has been a very good governor and had a good record in 2022 on which he could run.
Charlie Crist was well known in Florida as a political chameleon, and as governor wasn’t very good or noteworthy, except for losing elections. Hopefully DeSantis has permanently put Crist out to pasture.
The Republicans’ solution to Florida’s skyrocketing house insurance costs likely will be to make house insurance unavailable in Florida.
Carry on, Florida clingers. In your uninsured, uninsurable, hurricane alley homes. Until . . . well, it won’t be replacement, because there will be no money with which to rebuild.
It’s unlikely the Republicans will ban house insurance in Florida. That’s the type of thing that will make you unelectable.
And what’s your solution? Socialized home insurance, just like you want socialized health insurance? You know that won’t actually make the cost go down; it just shifts it to other people who don’t get the benefits of living on the Florida coast.
So how do you like Alabama?
I live in Central Florida, and my sense is that he won by such a huge margin largely because of his anti-lockdown response to the pandemic
Whatever happened to Gillum anyway?? He was supposed to be the “Male” Stacy Abrahams
Many reasons, but what separates Florida and Texas before and now from Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan is mail in voting. Texas and Florida have put a stake through voter harvesting, aka as walking around money.
How long do conservatives expect the three pillars of Republican electoral strategy — voter suppression, gerrymandering, and our system’s structural amplification of backwater votes — to continue to enable Republicans to remain competitive with an electorate that becomes steadily less rural, less religious, less bigoted, less backward, and less white?
No wonder right-wingers are so cranky.
Hispanic and black people are more religious than your average white. Demographic shift or declining religiosity, you can only pick one.
Wrong. Religion has been declining steadily and substantially in America while diversity has been increasing.
Other than that, though, great comment!
Are you holding the real Reverend Jerry Sandusky hostage? 2 whole sentences without a “Culture War” or “Klinger” LET JERRY GO!!!
Frank
DeSantis won all but 7 counties in Florida. He even flipped Miami-Dade by 80,000+ votes, 57% of Latinos overall. He won every age group except 18 to 29, where he merely tied. It was a total blowout.
But according to you, he won because 60% of the voters who live in Florida are rural, religious, bigoted, backward and white.
Well. It’s been said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The same holds true for believing the same stupid nonsense over and over again and expecting it will be true.
DeSantis likely was assisted by voting procedures (he made it easier to vote in some Republican counties but not in Democratic counties, for example, and signed voting restriction legislation a year or two ago).
He also oversaw an aggressive gerrymandering project, which didn’t directly influence the vote for governor but made many elections less competitive in a way that might have diminished turnout.
That is why I mentioned the three core elements of Republican electoral strategy: voter suppression, gerrymandering, and the structural amplification of backwater votes.
Florida is not known for great schools, an educated population, or a young population. It has plenty of cranky old white evangelicals. It is still a southern state. Those factors make it unsurprising that Republicans might be successful in Florida.
“Texas and Florida have put a stake through voter harvesting…”
The problem isn’t mail in voting. North Carolina, which had actual documented cases of vote harvesting in the past, also “put a stake through it” by passing sensible laws while keeping mail in voting.
Not in Florida, but a combination of winning Hispanic voters more and more along with very depressed D turnout- DeSantis appears to have improved from 2018 by ~550,000 votes, while Crist is running behind Gillum by 900,000+ votes. Similarly, someone above mentioned winning Miami Dade- DeSantis increased his votes in Miami Dade by about 80,000, but Crist underperformed Gillum by 165,000.
At any rate: some of this was clearly persuasion and shifting voting patterns, and some was clearly a D+8 vs a roughly neutral national environment…and some of it is definitely that Crist was a completely ineffectual candidate in every way, as well.
All this is true, but mail in balloting and vote harvesting is all about increasing D voter turnout, and without it, and in Florida, as you say, D turnout was “very depressed.” Republicans will probably never again be competitive in a Pennsylvania and Michigan because state government is now solidly in control of Ds. Liberal mail in voting and vote harvesting (I.e., buying votes) are now embedded and D turnout will be strong even if the Ds nominate a stroke victim who can’t speak coherently. There will be no “depressed” voter turnout in those states no matter how weak the D candidate.
What is wrong with strong voter turnout (except from the perspective of losers who can’t compete at the modern marketplace of ideas, of course)?
Yes, so true. People who can’t be bothered to go to the polls and are handed a pre-marked ballot and $50 for the “stamp” by agents who are themselves paid by the ballot are participating in the very modern market place of ideas. A market place by the way that is outlawed in most states and in virtually every “modern” democracy.
People who can’t be bothered: parents with young kids, the elderly, the military, the sick, doctors and nurses and paramedics and firefighters on long shifts, truck drivers, etc etc etc. There’s 320,000,000 people in the country. Trying to get all voting done in a 12 hour window in the middle of the week is absurd.
Weird, it worked for almost 250 years here. It works in almost every other country in the world.
I’ll give you 1st responders and other medical workers. The hours they put in are nuts.
Mail-in-ballots are sent directly from the department of elections to the voter’s address, and they’re keyed to that voter.
If you’re going to be needlessly bigoted, you could at least try to back it up with facts instead of fabrications.
You sound like an uninformed, disaffected, likely worthless victim of the modern American culture war, Bwub.
No problems there that replacement won’t solve, though.
Just flagged your Race-ist “Replacement” theory comment Jerry, prepare to be “Replaced”
Ah, so it IS voter supression. How about gerrymandering, much of that in Florida?
“Liberal mail in voting” is a very telling phrase.
Bwub doesn’t know what he’s talking about, he just gets Fox News talking points.
Full on want to contract the franchise because of all the riff raff voting.
Another Republican elitist.
” Another Republican elitist. ”
These Republicans — the clingers who comment and the law professors who lather them up with a red meat combo platter of bigotry, backwardness, and superstition — seem far from elite. They are the disaffected fringe, and they are losers in the culture war.
DeSantis earned nearly 600,000 more votes in 2022 than he did in 2018. Given that the GOP has a 300,000 voter advantage, presumably thousands of Gillum voters went for DeSantis in 2022.
In any event, Democrats often mobilize to vote AGAINST an opposing candidate (Trump is a classic example). The fact that 900,000 fewer Democrats voted for their candidate in 2022 suggests that DeSantis is not PE#1 to ordinary Dem voters.
Having a running mate who was awfully fond of Castro was probably an insanely stupid idea. As was dragging around a Biden cardboard cutout, as she did, to speeches.
I can only report my Fort Myers’ parents’ view, which is that DeSantis was generally perceived as having handled Hurricane Ian very well, and that the aura of competency from those recent events, combined with the general sense that Covid is in the rear view mirror, lent a great deal to his popularity.
Part of this strikes me as survivorship bias. But the senior community and the Hispanic community are also less prone than most to getting worked up over political rhetoric, and more willing to vote pragmatically. My father doesn’t care at all about the battle of words — he’s focused on who is going to do the best things *for him.*
I have the opposite experience with seniors. Most of the ones I know buy the culture war rhetoric hook-line-and-sinker without bothering to even consider the obvious factual flaws.
….like how boys can become girls if they REALLY want it?
More like the belief that schools have litter boxes in them because the olds don’t understand what furries are.
Neither have an iota of actual reality around it.
However, one is a fringe belief held by a tiny few and the other is one of the key beliefs of the Left.
The sound judgment and lack of gullibility among older conservatives is reflected by the Fox News advertiser lineup — LifeLock, commemorative gold coin “investments,” CarShield, miracle pain relief breakthroughs, Nutrisystem, Focus Factor, Medicare Advantage, Trumpillows. magic diet supplements and fat-burners . . .
Simple.
On any issue, DeSantis will go for the option that gives the individual the most freedom.
He is an efficient administrator in implementing those decisions.
(and Crist has the record pf being the only politician to lose as a democrat, an independent, and a republican)
I am a Floridan, and I approve this message.
DeSantis will go for the option that gives the individual the most freedom.
LOL. Dude literally sent SWAT teams to arrest people who were told they could vote by officials for daring to register. What’s free about that? He tried to force social media to carry messages they didn’t want. What’s free about that? He wanted to ban businesses from making their own decisions about COVID safety. What’s free about that? He doesn’t want teachers to reach what they think is appropriate. What’s free about that? Or the converse trying to make it harder to learn the history of race in America? What’s free about that. (BTW the dumbass actually thinks no one believed slavery was wrong until the Declaration of Independence so his thuggery in that area is based on idiocy). He’s banning transition care for trans youths. What’s free about that for that individual?
He doesn’t increase individual freedom. He increases YOUR individual freedom. There’s a huge difference.
Some Republicans like DeSantis because he’s a culture warrior punching at the mainstream, and conservatives have been on the losing end of America’s culture war for all or most of their lives.
This is a tellingly childlike take.
Former Pres. Trump is a FLA resident (and who knows – maybe he’s a Volokh conspirator!!!), so here’s his view.
~~~~
Former President Donald Trump has removed all ambiguity about his feelings about Ron DeSantis.
In a searing statement from Trump’s Save America PAC, Trump unleashed on DeSantis as just an “average Republican Governor” propped up by Fox News and related properties.
“NewsCorp, which is Fox, the Wall Street Journal, and the no longer great New York Post (bring back Col!), is all in for Governor Ron DeSanctimonious, an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations, who didn’t have to close up his State, but did, unlike other Republican Governors, whose overall numbers for a Republican, were just average — middle of the pack — including COVID, and who has the advantage of SUNSHINE, where people from badly run States up North would go no matter who the Governor was, just like I did!”
Trump took to Truth Social to diminish DeSantis’ accomplishment Wednesday.
“Now that the Election in Florida is over, and everything went quite well, shouldn’t it be said that in 2020, I got 1.1 Million more votes in Florida than Ron D got this year, 5.7 Million to 4.6 Million? Just asking?”
“I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering — I know more about him than anybody — other than, perhaps, his wife,” Trump added, per Fox News.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/571152-donald-trump-trashes-ron-desantis-as-average-republican-governor/
Well…OK! Happy Friday everyone!!!
LOL, Trump. We all remember when he was a big believer in SUNSHINE as a cure for Covid.
Not a cure, but sufficient levels of vitamin D do seem to prevent the worst of the body’s overreaction to the covid virus. And other viruses as well.
Florida resident since Aug. 2020. Like many others, my family and I moved from a blue state (California) to escape the lockdowns, high prices, and crushing bureaucracy. We voted with our feet.
Ron DeSantis is popular because he projects competent leadership and achieves tangible results for ordinary citizens (e.g., keeping businesses open, protecting parental and employee rights, rebuilding a bridge three days after an hurricane, etc.). He won re-election because he ran on a vision: “Freedom Lives in Florida.” That vision was backed by his tangible results.
DeSantis won the votes of Hispanics and a majority of women, because in the words of one lady, “He is a real man”—strong, decisive, and family-oriented.
He travels the state nonstop, working, giving speeches, touting accomplishments. He does not appear like Newsom, holed away in the governor’s mansion or dining at the French Laundry.
It also helps the governor that his wife is media savvy and a competent servant-leader in her own right.
No doubt DeSantis is ambitious and has carefully orchestrated his career for an ultimate White House run. But he worked hard for everything he’s achieved, and that included humbling himself for Trump’s endorsement in 2018.
” a competent servant-leader ”
Another handmaiden?
Clingers gonna cling. Until replacement, anyway.
Man, I was just scrolling to see the responses from actual Floridans to see what’s up with DeSantis, and it’s really helpful to see your rabid inanity in every thread. Victims of culture war much? Seriously, DeSantis aside, if there was a party of the likes of you, and it was opposed by a unified block of ISIS, KKK and Los Zetas, it would be a touch call – you might be somewhat more modern, but they appear more sane…
Ron DeSanctimonious is too many syllables and doesn’t roll of the tongue. He should stick with what works and call him Little Ronny.
“Freedom”.
Like banning businesses from making their own rules about vaccines.
Or making it legal to mow down protesters exercising their rights.
Or punishing private companies with the full force of law because they disagreed with him.
Or signing and championing *multiple* constitution-violating laws (I think we’re up to 4 now?)
Or banning women from choosing what to do with their bodies.
Or requiring children get genital inspections to hurt trans kids.
Or, or, or.
Yeah, sure sounds like “freedom” to me.
I would describe the people to whom that sounds exactly like freedom but Prof. Volokh still censors the publication of those words if used to describe conservatives at this blog.
As he is entitled to do. His playground, his rules, even when they involve viewpoint-driven censorship.
lol you people wtf you don’t live in reality
I live in Florida. I watched these happen.
If you have to go to lengths to tell people they’re wrong — you’re not winning.
Especially since many of the things you list here are popular as is.
Cry. Then cry more.
“This guy is for freedom.”
“No, he’s not. Here are receipts.”
“Cry about it!”
Yeah, that’s about the level of discourse I expect from Republicans these days.
“Oh noes, I recite Democrat talking points and people do not want to humor me with any actual arguments for my non-arguments. Woe is I!” – 79
No engagement is not a sign you are right on the facts.
” Cry. Then cry more. ”
Why should anyone in the liberal-libertarian mainstream — which has been shoving progress down right-wingers’ throats for more than a half-century, and is positioned to keep shaping American progress against the clingers’ preferences and efforts for decades more — cry?
Crying is for losers:
Conservatives.
Racists.
Republicans.
Superstitious gay-bashers.
Right-wingers.
Misogynists.
Faux libertarians.
QAnoners.
Immigrant-haters.
White nationalists.
Antisemites.
Federalist Societeers.
Islamophobes.
Losers.
In the culture war, we have reached the “lamentations of their women” stage. That’s why conservatives are so disaffected, desperate, even delusional.
Sorry, but you leftists don’t get to claim now that private businesses should get free reign, not after you held that bakers have to make wedding cakes to celebrate anal-sex based marriages.
The baker won his case. And if you don’t understand how civil rights are different than opinion-based value judgements, I truly can’t help you.
Banning businesses from making their own decisions, like ADA and anti-discrimination laws? Yeah, unacceptable.
Making it legal to “mow down” protesters – lol. Where do I get my machinegun?
Punishing private companies with the full force of law because they disagreed with him – sounds like a typical politician pass-time. I’ll give you that one, though, he’s /no better/ on this front.
banning women from choosing what to do with their bodies. – check abortion rules in other countries. Sure, I also support abortion until all the way until the 15th trimester, but Floridan rules are actually more liberal than much of Europe and widely supported.
“hurt trans kids” – lol. Along with any non-ironic use of the term “oppression” in 2022, this is a litmus test for culture war BS.
Not sure about constitution and laws – I am not in Florida; however e.g. repealing the prohibition was pro-freedom and against then-constitution; so would be e.g. repealing the 16th. So, anti-constitutional laws can go either way.
Yeah, with one exception sounds like either a good record, or non-issues.
piedrad — Likely, you will remain a happy Florida resident about as long as state and national policy keep bailing the state out with huge real estate insurance subsidies—plus gigantic post-storm disaster relief, again and again. If that gravy train ever comes to an end, even before you yourself get hit, you will have to pay the real cost of the Florida real estate fantasy, and you will not like it.
DeSantis prospers politically because he has been a skilled spokesman for policy bypasses to evade reality. Folks whose day-to-day economic viability depends on denying reality will stay ecstatically grateful until that breaks down. The longer that takes, the more sunk investment will go down with it when it happens.
Good luck to you, Florida Man.
Florida isn’t subsidized any more than any other state.
In that case, a lot of houses in Florida are not going to be rebuilt.
Maybe they can fashion some tents out of those goofy red hats.
| Charlie Crist was just an awful opponent
This is basically it. He has no direction or principals, and is about as charismatic as a wet mop.
And this coming from someone who is not a Desantis supporter
He ended election cheating in his state. 😉
Are you sure that wasn’t Trump when he sent Federal Agents to help him out in some unspecified way back in the day?
The opiate of comforting lies won’t actually win you any elections.
DeSantis just won handidly.
Just sayin’.
Absolutely did. Big win, big coattails.
But it was not because his is the only state where Dems didn’t cheat.
I’d explain it by people sick of COVID overreach in blue states moving to Florida specifically to have DeSantis as their governor. Despite the explosion in GOP, 3rd party, and NPA voters since his first election, registered democrats have actually gone down!
Looking at the numbers for “Registered Voters by Party”:
2018: 4.718m GOP, 4.975m DEM, 113k 3RD, 3.588m NPA
2022: 5.259m GOP, 4.966m DEM, 261k 3RD, 3.974m NPA
Totals: +540k GOP, -9k Dem, +148k 3RD, +386k NPA
Welcome to open thread Friday rather than Florida man (woman) Friday.
Florida Man don’t need him around anyhow,
I’ve been a fan of RDS since he was my congressman for three terms beginning in 2012. He became a member of the Freedom Caucus but he never was overtly crazy. He paid attention to our district (primarily Volusia county). When he decided to run for governor, I enthusiastically supported him despite his not having any demonstrable record as an administrator. My reason was simple: Gillum was an unreconstructed mess. I still have one of Sabo’s stickers on my refrigerator from those days: “Andrew Gillum for governor: Make Florida Venezuela.” The capital “G” was in the shape of a hammer and sickle.
One of his first acts after being inaugurated was to fire the election supervisors who’d been responsible for repeated screw ups in voting procedures. Florida is now a model of election efficiency. One year after his inauguration, Covid struck. RDS ensured from the start that the elderly population of the state was first in line for vaccinations and care. He kept schools and businesses open. If he had done nothing else in his term, his actions during that period would have earned him a permanent place in the pantheon of governors in American history who have actually made a positive difference in the lives of their constituents. Be realistic: During those awful days, would you not far rather have had someone like RDS running your state than true menaces like Newsome and Cuomo? Time has proven his prescience and the wisdom of his guiding hand. Of that there can be no doubt whatsoever. Instead of infantilizing his populace, he has encouraged them to be the best that they could be.
He eventually took on, with the help of a strong Republican legislature, the Disney corporation. I admit as a libertarian and recovering lawyer that there are some aspects to this fight that I find troubling, but I remain hopeful that a reasonable solution can yet be worked out. At the very least he stepped those arrogant bastards back, which is as unusual in governance as it was needed in point of fact.
As for his taking on the teachers’ union, I could not be more supportive of such efforts. Those thugs were successful in clamping down public education for two years in other jurisdictions. Not here. And RDS has stymied, insofar as that is possible, imposition of woke values in elementary schools. That effort has the overwhelming support of Florida’s population. When he’s not occupied with rooting out other deeply rooted problems in the state’s bureaucracy, he can find time to send a few illegal aliens to Marth’a Vineyard, thus guaranteeing that the next dozen news cycles will collapse in a shocked rage against such despicable and dictatorial acts. Yeah, yeah. But as political theater, it had even Saul Alinsky chuckling in his grave.
Finally, he has all the education, patience, skill, and focus that the Orange Man lacks. He has temperament and calm demeanor. He is a serious man for serious times, not an ignoble, megalomaniacal cartoon. His enemies know that; that’s why they worry so. They are right to do so.
I do not worry about DeSantis. The American culture war is not quite over but it has been settled.
The clingers have lost. They can still hope for magnanimity from their betters, though.
Yeah the most impressive thing that I saw him do was when he was leaving a nursing home during the first pandemic wave. There was a gaggle of reporters outside yelling questions at him, and one of them asked why he hadn’t been vaxxed early like the rest of the politicians – hoping to get him to come out as anti-vax.
He basically said that he was relatively young and would get the vax when his turn came up, but that he didn’t think he should cut in line and take a dose away from somebody who needs it more, like “in there”, pointing back toward the nursing home. It was a really good look.
If somehow we could arrange to get DeSantis against, say, Polis in 2024 that would be an election that might actually provide hope that there’s a way out of this morass.
“A model of election efficiency”… that arrests citizens who registered to vote because the state told them they could.
Their problem was they were registered to vote more than one state. Sorry, doesn’t work that way. Do not pass Go.
I thought they were convicted felons who were told their voting rights had been restored by statute, but I did not follow the issue closely enough for that to be reliable.
I would expect most Florida voters whose eligibility is compromised by residency or double registration issues to be whites who emulate Dr. Oz (multiple houses), not the poor blacks targeted by DeSantis’ “voting police.” The Mark Meadows issue.
You may want to check your facts again. It was former felons who had been told it was okay as I recall.
And at least one had charges dismissed.
It doesn’t work that way??? I live 6 months in GA and 6 months in FL, pay taxes in both, own property in both, you can’t cast a half ballot, so I round up, what’s the Problemo???
Incorrect. As others have pointed out, they were ex-felons. The state told them they were good to vote, and then DeSantis sent his goons to arrest them.
Maybe you’re thinking of the white Republicans in The Villages, FL who double voted, but weren’t arrested.
That’s why I love him. He owns the libs without acting like a child like Trump.
Don’t underestimate Hispanic outreach.
Rubio Hispanic
DeSantis Vice Governor is Hispanic female and she’s really popular and a good retail politician
Pro freedom an capitalist where Dems look Socialist / Communist to those who fled such regimes
I retired to SW FL four years ago. FL has low educational attainment, low income and GDP, and a lot of retirees. De Santis very effectively exploited COVID, immigration, and education issues. He maintains a dignified demeanor, doesn’t rage tweet, speaks like an educated person, and has never bragged about grabbing women.
Long story short, FL is a southern state and DeSantis jumped in with both feet on the stuff that worked for Trump while avoiding Trump’s excesses. The difference between DeSantis’ and Abbott’s results in this election are likely the difference between Crist and O’Rourke. I don’t know how well DeSantis will play nationally.
If he decides to run and wins the nomination he will be treated by the press as the Devil incarnate, just like every other Republican candidate has been.
Actually they’ve been doing it already.
Democrats have literally accused every Republican Presidential nominee since Dewey of being another Hitler. Every single last one of them, without exception.
I expect they’d have started sooner, but people would have been asking who Hitler was…
Could be worse. Could accuse them of being George W Bush.
Only 36% of Floridians were born in Florida. 20% were born out of the country. “Florida ranks 3rd in the nation for K-12 Achievement according to a new 2020 Quality Counts report by Education Week.”
Florida ranks 4th in number of millionaires.
Retirees add maturity, stability, skills and peace, in my opinion.
“Only 36% of Floridians were born in Florida. 20% were born out of the country. ”
Diversity is their strength…
“Florida is a southern state”?
Actual Florida saying: In Florida, the further south you go, the further North you get and when you hit Miami, you’re in New York.
‘Note that I’m not asking here whether DeSantis is in reality a good governor, or whether he would make a good President, or the like. My question is why he’s been so politically successful,’
Somehow I can’t help but think this encapsulates a massive problem in attitudes to elections and politicians.
The comment above from Saro makes a valid point: Republicans now outnumber democrats. But that’s only the tip of the golden spear.
If we look at House races nationwide and add up the number of Patriotic votes and the number of votes for Democrats, we see that Republicans won such a “nationwide popular vote” by more than 6 million (and counting), Hispanic votes for Republicans increased by roughly 24%, and African American votes for Republicans increased by about 22%.
Florida is merely a microcosm, with the Governor benefiting from the nationwide shift away from Democrats. The effect of the shift is muted somewhat by the various ways in which we count votes; that is, there is no actual national popular vote of any sort, so the nationwide trend is merely a whisper of things to come.
Virginia’s most recent gubernatorial election fits the pattern: heretofore overlooked voters — “essential workers” of all races and ethnicities who feed, power, and clothe “urban residents” — are uniting (and voting against Democrats).
Patriotic votes versus votes for Democrats? Fuck off with that tribal bullshit. Reasonable minds can vote for a party you don’t care for.
And you didn’t explain the rest of the 2022 election.
Echo Chamber A Cog A Meme 37-z: DeSantis Trump both same comment.
Echo Chamber B Cog G Meme 22-c: DeSantis good let’s go Brandon.
Echo Chamber A Cog B Meme 17-d: Trump bad silly clingers.
Alan Turing, the computer science genius, invented the concept of the Chinese Room, where a guy sat in a room and was passed slips of paper through a slot.
The papers had Chinese characters on them, which he did not understand. He did, however, have enormous numbers of books with Chinese characters and strings of characters in them, in tables with a response string and rules for looking them up.
According to the rules, he would write down Chinese characters and pass a slip of paper back out through the slot.
In this way, he could have a conversation in Chinese without actually understanding Chinese. The question was: something understands Chinese. Is it him, or the room as a whole?
You all are cogs in a conversation between two Chinese rooms, the party echo chambers, as they vie for power.
Why power? It is the legal ability for that room to force itself on the cogs of the other room against their will.
See, the important point of memes are not that they are ideas, or that they are ideas that spread. The important point is they get you to behave in ways that get them to spread. This can be completely independent of their content as an idea.
Talking sweetly to Latinos is not about talking sweetly to Latinos.
Gun control is not about gun control.
The organisms above you seek to move beyond mere persuasion to spread memes to new cogs. They seek the holy grail: force.
Wherefore freedom for cogs?
What are you, 18 years old? No, you are not a superior being above the fray.
I’m not in Florida, so YMMV as to whether my opinion is worth anything. The qualities which explain why DeSantis is so popular are that he is a serious person, a skilled administrator, and a decisive leader.
As a serious person, he is always deeply prepared, whatever the topic. When he engages, his opponents are typically much less informed, so he runs rings around their objections. Usually, they are reduced to sputtering talking points, which he is easily able to dismantle.
As a skilled administrator, he knows how to delegate responsibility, and how critical it is to have the right people in the positions where they can do the most good. Being good at administration is often thought to require good “clerical” skills — numbers, stats, etc. But that is not so. Good administrators are very good at enabling people. That’s how you get things done. Policies are fine, but it takes people to get them implemented.
Finally, as a decisive leader, he always believes he is making choices based on solid, convincing evidence. When he receives pushback he can hold the line because he’s already gone through that objection on his own. No doubt his military training serves him well with this.
” No doubt his military training serves him well with this. ”
Because our military is known for attracting and developing the best and brightest, especially among law school graduates?
How many of the best people from your law school class celebrated graduation by joining the military?
Only the best ones.
That must have been one odd law school.
Who says Law School gets the Best and Brightest??? Avinatti? Trumps Pimp Cohen?? Even Ted Bundy dropped out for greener pastures…
Depends on whether we are talking about Enlisted or Officer. It is pretty much a maxim in the recruiting industry that being an officer is essentially the equivalent of a Master’s degree, Colonel or above, closer to a PhD.
Companies tend to love officers as COO’s. They have the management and organizational skills needed to be successful.
In Traverse City, Hot Springs, and Punxsutawney, maybe.
He went to Harvard and Yale, you moron. Where is your JD from? Cooley? Chapman? Nova Southeastern?
I am not referring to his law school education. I am referring to what he did after law school. He went to the military rather than try to cut it in the big leagues.
With Pedo Coaches like you around? I’d prefer Quantico too.
This article seems responsive to the question. Note also that the yea-vote increase may simply be the electorate-appreciated difference between a politician’s promises and that politician’s actual fulfillment of those promises, i.e., performance & governing record, and seeing the ensuing positive economic and social effects of that type of governance.
https://www.city-journal.org/ron-desantis-rules-for-political-success?wallit_nosession=1
I have lived in Fort Lauderdale since 1978. DeSantis is the latest in a line of competent republican governors (including Crist) since Jeb Bush. My work brings me into contact with state government agencies and I can say they are pretty competent. We have very low taxes and our financial condition is top notch. But there is more than that to explain his popularity.
His positions on opening up quickly are hugely popular. My area was literally overrun with wealthy remote workers from the northeast who wanted the freedom we had. I have a rental property and was able to raise the rent 30% because of that. Thanks DeSantis!
We have a well funded rainy day fund. When the lockdown hit the Governor used that to get every construction firm he could to do road improvements since there was no traffic. Smart.
His positions on Socialism are also a big deal. Many immigrants have experienced socialism back home and want nothing to do with it. My father is an immigrant and trust me when I tell you millions of Floridians are taught to hate and fear socialism by people who suffered under it.
But there is something else that I don’t think outsiders get. The national media brutally attacked DeSantis for his COVID and social policies. I think a large number of people voted for him out of anger that “our” Governor / State was being attacked.
Also, the national media always seems to lump all Hispanics in South Florida as Cubans that support republicans. That really angers a lot of people. The immigrant community is incredibly diverse and this is driving anger toward the media which is perceived to be the political left.
So there it is. A combination of competent governance, good COVID policies, good economy, anti socialism and a sense of standing up to outside bullies.
Good point. When people I detest scream about my governor and it’s patently clear that the criticisms aren’t made in good faith- it naturally hardens my resolve.
Not sure if that’s bad or good but it’s certainly human.
My old house in Palm Beach County doubled in value in less than a year.
That was some nice moolah banked.
My area was literally overrun with wealthy remote workers from the northeast who wanted the freedom we had. I have a rental property and was able to raise the rent 30% because of that. Thanks DeSantis!
As someone that has to pay higher rent, yeah, Thanks DeSantis! (That was sarcasm, in case it wasn’t obvious enough.)
That you wrote this really makes me wonder if you could see what that looks like to someone that isn’t in the owner class. People that had jobs that couldn’t be done remotely, and couldn’t afford not to work, were getting COVID at higher rates. And they also tended to have worse outcomes (for a multitude of reasons). All so people able to work remotely could still go to restaurants, apparently. Maybe you remember the news stories spring and summer of 2020 of the high rates of infection, hospitalizations, and deaths among workers at meat packing plants compared to the general population?
Research into what policies worked to reduce the spread and mortality of COVID, which ones had some benefit, but may have been too costly to justify them, and which ones were both ineffective and costly will likely continue for some time. But there is no doubt that those that felt the worst financial strains from the pandemic closures also dealt with the worst effects of the disease itself.
Your sentiment is shared by many in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area, that transplants have made housing unaffordable for them. A lot of it will reverse as the “remote” workers are being told to go back to the office.
The part that is particularly galling is that owners of “assets” whether real estate, stocks, or (formerly) crypto, go around acting like they’re brilliant, when in reality, they just benefited from 2 years of deranged Fed printing and interest rate suppression.
Florida has a very high rate of home ownership so a lot of people did really well with the migration from blue states to Florida. I get that you are paying out the wazoo. But the blame falls on the governors of the blue states who drove hordes of people to Florida with their strict lock downs. You must have seen them. You couldn’t get a frigging table at a restaurant! I just rented a room to a college student whose family is in the process of relocating down here. They have just given up on their state. Don’t blame me, blame the politics of that state.
My son (paramedic) and I (medical equipment manufacturing) were essential workers and in hospitals during the worst of it. I got nailed hard with COVID so I understand the risk. I was plenty happy that restaurants and especially the bars (!!!) were open.
The risk did fall disproportionally on certain groups. I know, I was one of them. My son, obviously, got COVID. He’s young and super healthy so no big deal for him. I was on my ass for a week and as weak as a kitten for another 2 weeks. Then got nailed again (much easier time). But I don’t see any negative correlation with the opening up of the economy. I think it really helped health outcomes. Especially mentally.
But the blame falls on the governors of the blue states who drove hordes of people to Florida with their strict lock downs.
I am skeptical that there really were that many people moving to Florida because of ‘strict’ lockdowns in blue states. For one, the ‘lockdowns’ weren’t even that strict compared to many countries with much lower rates of infection and death. Second, only people of well above average means would be able to move to a different state just to avoid such restrictions.
The higher rents we are seeing in Florida are not limited just to Florida, in any case. It is a problem in many parts of the country that housing is so limited as to drive up prices, and it also is due to more than the pandemic. Government policy is certainly part of that, so do Florida Republicans get any share of the blame for it? How about for the rising home owner’s insurance rates and number of insurers closing up shop and leaving the state? And it is still yet to be seen how Ian and Nicole will affect the insurance market.
State-level Republicans have been in a race to the bottom when it comes to taxes and regulation for decades now, when they have full control over a state’s government. That has more consequences than drawing in retirees and others that don’t like paying taxes.
Setting aside the objective question “is RD a good governor?”…I don’t know anyone who has a bad thing to say about him. Personally I knew nothing of the man until the Covid BS and the first time I heard him on the radio was on an NPR story about a press conference. Despite the obviously-biased reportage, when they played his remake I just thought “we’ll Duh- that’s common sense.”
It was only later, when the lunatics started baying at the moon about “Deathsantis” that I really noticed he was protecting the state from some terrible consequences.
The more the leftists gibberish the more I liked his resolve. Even when he made what I thought were bad choices I took them in stride because only a fool expects a governor to always agree with you. He can always explain why he thinks what he thinks and it’s obvious he & I share many of the core values I think are critical.
It’s the classic realization that a good man can disagree with you on something w/o making him a bad man. My sense is that he has done one helluva job.
Bigger Question,
how can New Yawkers have voted for that Shrew Kathy Hochul??? I’m convinced it’s an Andrew Cuomo plan to return to Orifice…
Frank
They cleaned up the elections and got rid of some Democrat cheaters.
Notably in Miami-Dade. Broward County is next.
I live in Jacksonville. Without trying to weigh amongst them, there were several factors I observed that I thought were particularly important to Desantis’s success compared with 2018.
1) Demographic shift. I haven’t reviewed the statistics, but anecdotally I can say that at least in north Florida we are awash with conservative transplants from other states. Florida has always been a draw for retirees, and I know I’m not reporting anything new when I point out that demographic skews Republican these days. But I’ll add that in north Florida we have many younger transplants who move for jobs. In my conversation with these folks, the big draw (apart from weather and beach) was Florida’s lack of income tax and their perception that Desantis had handled COVID the right way. This overlaps a little bit over into the next factor, but I include it here because I think people who approved of DeSantis’s handling of COVID were most likely Republican voters to begin with.
2) Perceived competence. Fairly or unfairly, DeSantis is widely credited with getting things “back to normal” in Florida very early in the pandemic. Florida was a charnel house for large swathes of 2020 and 2021, but most people here seemed not to care after Memorial Day 2020. I think this occurred because restaurants were open and people were back to work. Desantis’s messaging around this topic essentially amounted to “here’s what we recommend, but if you want to do something else, it’s not my business to stop you.” I think this was effective with many Floridians.
Also on the subject of competence, DeSantis deservedly gets credit for his administration’s handling of emergencies like hurricanes. Like Rick Scott before him, DeSantis understands the political importance of being the face of calm, informative leadership during storms. In Florida, these storms create easy political capital for an incumbent governor with an iota of charisma and common sense, and DeSantis understands that fully.
Finally, to the extent DeSantis has experienced controversies or scandals, they have largely been over deliberate choices he’s made to court his base and upset his opponents. The only “mismanagement” type scandal I can think of is his suppression of information regarding COVID infections and deaths, and even in that case he was able to deftly spin that into a “political” controversy.
3) Relative motivation of the respective bases. The last big difference I observed between this cycle and 2018 is that this time Republicans have a known quantity in Desantis, who has largely fed them nothing but red meat for 4 years (whereas they just weren’t as familiar with him before). On the other hand, the choice for Democrats was guy who was a Republican the last time he held public office.
A lot of folks in my part of the state believe DeSantis will be president one day, and they are genuinely excited to vote for him. I don’t think it was terribly important in this election, but I perceived a definite bandwagon effect that probably pushed DeSantis’s numbers a bit higher than they might have been otherwise.
***
I’m sure there are other factors (inroads that Republicans have made with Latinos in south Florida has gotten a lot of news coverage), but these are the ones I personally have observed.
” Also on the subject of competence, DeSantis deservedly gets credit for his administration’s handling of emergencies like hurricanes. ”
How was Florida government’s response to Ian good? Florida’s government did not warn the relevant people to leave in a timely manner; many Floridians did not even move their vehicles to safer locations and consequently lost them to flooding, a readily avoidable problem. Plenty of Floridians sheltered in place and paid for that stupidity with their lives.
Now, Floridians are finding that many homeowners will never collect funds for rebuilding, either because they didn’t have the proper insurance or because the state insurance program is about to be submerged like a Lee County lowland. I suppose Florida could ask for a federal bailout, but let’s hope no bailout occurs with respect to people who paid neither income taxes nor adequate insurance premiums.
Sorry, but it’s not the government’s job to warn people. People need to watch the weather reports and take responsibility for their own actions.
You are just flat out wrong.
How?
Did the DeSantis administration provide accurate, timely evacuation warnings to the locations that were inundated? Or did it focus attention on areas that were not so severely affected, short-arming the warnings and evacuation efforts where they were needed?
Why didn’t residents of the hardest-hit areas evacuate?
Why did so many people have their vehicles flooded by a storm that could be seen coming a week away? How many vehicles can’t outrun a storm with a one-week head start?
Kirkland, in fairness, to make a vehicle safe from an oncoming major hurricane in South Florida, you may have to drive it to some upland in interior Georgia. At least in the panhandle it’s an easier drive.
In that case, car insurance in Florida should be quite pricey.
Maybe even as costly as homeowners insurance in Florida.
“Florida was a charnel house for large swathes of 2020 and 2021”
Ah, you do realize, don’t you, that the Covid death rate didn’t get high enough for that kind of language ANYWHERE in the US? All this hyperbole does is tell us not to take you seriously.
In 2020, 239,381 people died of all causes in Florida. Only 19, 157 of them of Covid. That was only 8% of total deaths!
Bellmore — You are a politically motivated virus denier. At the outset of the pandemic there were literally thousands of bodies piled in the streets of New York City. Authorities had the taste to conceal those bodies in refrigerated trailers. But everyone knew what was happening. For many who went through it, the horror of that will always be summed up by two words: THERMO KING.
What the pandemic did in New York it could have done anywhere. It takes sub-standard morals and willful blindness to make political hay out of a giant pile of corpses. You rely on a less-lethal experience to justify your advocacy. As with other fools who advocate as you do, it was a matter of pure happenstance that the initial blow from the pandemic fell elsewhere.
What makes your advocacy especially irresponsible is that nothing about the Covid experience can save the nation from some worse pandemic emergency—one which threatens to kill a substantial fraction of everyone. Like the other deranged virus deniers on this blog, you demand that when that eventuality arrives, every possible means should be used to make it worse.
God, I am tired of this “denier” stupidity. Couple it with the left reacting to context the way a vampire does sunlight, and it’s insufferable.
Compared to most serious pandemics in history, Covid was a nothingburger. It barely managed to be a distant third place cause of death, averaged over a year, and mainly killed people my age or older, so the lost man-years of life were comparatively low. It practically didn’t effect school age people at all.
We could literally have skipped all the economy wrecking lockdowns, and ended up in exactly the same place. That’s what the statistics say: They didn’t accomplish anything, once you controlled for confounding variables!
The Spanish flu may have had an IFR in the same general ballpark, but it mostly killed young people, so the lost man-years were enormously higher, so was the inherent economic disruption.
Now, the early Covid reaction was motivated by the fear it was an escaped Chinese biowarfare agent, and so the over the top initial reaction was perhaps understandable. But they figured out that wasn’t true soon enough, and kept it up. It became a moral panic, anyone who urged sensible policies was attacked as murderous, as you’re trying to do here.
Bogeyman deniers like Bellmore are part of the reason we’re not headed toward years 3-5 of Covid lockdown.
Trump’s acolytes jumped his sinking ship, and paddled over to the most obvious alternative still afloat. EV’s deft question brought the evidence to the fore, right in this blog.
Trump is sunk. DeSantis is the new political messiah. Voters in Florida got to lead the way to the new big thing. It felt empowering.
Trump? What can he do? What will he do? His rich donors will take stock, then run to DeSantis as quick as his Florida voters did. The only question left open will be the nationwide MAGA rank and file.
Meanwhile, any Trump alternatives but DeSantis who had their eyes out for the GOP nomination had better do something fast, or forget about it.
I’ve lived in Florida since before DeSantis.
I think he did poor originally because he was an unknown and also because he isn’t a good speaker, at least for a politician. (I never made it through any of his debates or speeches.)
He caught on because people like his policies and his competency. I was skeptical of his opening up of Florida during the pandemic to the point that I wasn’t going to vote for him again, but he won me over because the policy worked. The same sort of thing has happened with other voters on other topics. He pays attention to what voters want and comes up with laws and policies that either work or have a good chance of working. And that’s what people really want, not someone who does well on TV or in debates.
If Republicans secure a majority in the House of Representatives (likely but not certain), who will be the next Speaker?
Kevin McCarthy (the current Republican leader)?
Steve Scalise (a from-the-right challenger?
Elise Stefanik (the Trump candidate)?
Liz Cheney (with five or six Republican votes to complement the Democratic votes, after the Freedom Caucus jams the gears)?
Donald Trump (closest he is likely to get to the presidency again)?
Someone else?
It’s certain Jerry, as certain as you won’t get a Commutation from (Senator Erect) Stuttering John Fetterman if you don’t get on the ball. New Lt Governor (erect) doesn’t look to be as forgiving for your “Predilerections”……
FWIW, the BBC sent a reporter into the streets of Miami to ask Eugene’s question. According to the reporter: “Speaking to voters in Miami . . . one message comes across again and again by those who support him – they began liking him during the pandemic when he rejected lockdowns, vaccine requirements and mask mandates in the name of personal freedoms.” (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63565224) I have a very different view than these Floridians about what the government should do in a pandemic — I prefer the policies that they reject — but it seems DeSantis’s approach was popular.
Victims of wars and pandemics get under-counted in subsequent opinion polls.
As though there were enough of those to have actually altered the results.
Gene, several points. First, political amd social culture. Florida is low tax, low services, state. No state income tax, relatively low property taxes, at least compared to parts of northeast and parts of the west, and you get what you pay for. Public schools vary but generally run middling at best, our welfare payment standards and UC payments are low, and our cost of living is relatively low. For some people, they like that. And it is well established that people tend to self sort, people who are conservative move to conservative areas, and liberals move to liberal areas. In addition to which, Florida has relatively few laws limiting what you can do, and tends to have more freedom. Examples, .florida does not require drivers to carry any third party personal injury insurance. Florida does not require motorcyclists to wear helmets. Approximately 10% of the populatin of Florida adults are licensed to carry a concealed gun. By the standards of some other states all of these things are appalling but that is what a lot of people in Florida like. So, When Covid hit, DeSantis quickly moved to reopen the state. In person school started Fall od 2020, and he quickly overruled objections by teachers unions and local school boards. People saw what was going on in other parts of the country, remote learning continuing for months, in some cases for all of the 2020-2021 school year, busnesses continuing to be shut down, nearly all open in Florida, and Florida did not do significantly worse, and by some metrics, considerably better than other populous states (Not to get into extended debate but raw death rate from covid in florida was 384, N.j was 393, NY was 377, ; if you look at age adjusted death rate Florida was 292 or 31 of 50 states, point is not that Florida did great but Florida did anout as well or somewhst better than a lot of states with much ore extreme measures). And politically, that helps.
Your explanation is clear and persuasive. Personally, I’ll take California (2,459 deaths per million from COVID) over Florida (3,843 deaths per million), but different strokes for different folks. Also more strokes: Recent studies suggest that people who have had COVID are at significantly greater risk for blood clots.
The age adjusted death rate for Florida was 292/100000, the age adjusted death rate for California was 270/100000. Florida was higher but not nearly as much difference as the raw death rate. And Florida spent a heck of a lot less time in lockdown. I’d rather take Florida’s approach. People say human lives are priceless but economists and lawyers both put price tags on human lives all the time. And keeping the economy functioning for the 99,708/100,000 who survived is worth 22 lives out of 100,000. And I’m not going to pretend it’s not.
That seems a good explanation.
How is Florida — low tax, low service — going to pay for hurricane damages?
States outside the initial hot zone in the Northeast cannot be compared to that region without adjustment. While the Northeast suffered an initial brutal hit from the pandemic, the rest of the nation was barely involved. Then the Northeast went on to experience the rest of the pandemic with the others. If the others thus look presently to match the statistics of the Northeast, that means the others did notably worse during the interval where all states were roughly (very roughly) comparable.
You don’t seem to fully understand immunity and the dynamics of epidemics.
He understands it fine, I think. The initial waves were at a time when less was known about the disease and how to treat it. When health care workers, PPE supplies, and the whole system was stretched the thinnest. Besides, even with high case numbers in those early waves, there weren’t so many people infected that immunity was widespread. Plus, we’ve seen plenty about how even natural immunity wanes, let alone how the delta and omicron variants got around immunity to infect people again.
Even at the beginning of the pandemic, they knew forcing senior homes to take in contagious people was murderously stupid. But they did it anyway. Medical knowledge wasn’t driving policy.
“Plus, we’ve seen plenty about how even natural immunity wanes,”
Gradually, sure. Not nearly as fast as the vaccine immunity does.
Even at the beginning of the pandemic, they knew forcing senior homes to take in contagious people was murderously stupid. But they did it anyway. Medical knowledge wasn’t driving policy.
That issue looks a lot more complicated than this talking point would make it.
The concern was that hospitals would be overwhelmed (and it seems some were), so the advisory was that nursing homes should take elderly residents released from hospitals if they were COVID positive if they were medically stable and had adequate infection protocols at the facility. Nursing homes took that as a mandate to accept them back regardless of how well they could manage infections, apparently, though it was not actually an order. Nursing homes had longstanding problems managing infections, so I agree that it was bad advice regardless of whether it was actually a mandate or not.
It wasn’t just NY that had problems in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities for the elderly. It was a nationwide problem and clearly goes back many years before the pandemic, as I said. The failures to protect the elderly were widespread and there is plenty of blame to go around.
https://covidtracking.com/analysis-updates/what-we-know-about-the-impact-of-the-pandemic-on-our-most-vulnerable-community
Gradually, sure. Not nearly as fast as the vaccine immunity does.
I experienced an adverse reaction to the 2nd COVID booster I received. (Moderna) I was in the hospital for 2 days from it. I got the booster at around 6pm, and by the next morning at work, I was short of breath, had an elevated heart rate (~115 when my resting heart rate is typically in the 70’s) and mild to moderate chest pain. Given that I had a heart attack a year and half prior, I wasn’t going to take a chance that it was a temporary thing and went to the ER. My heart rate went down and the chest pains ceased by later that evening, but I stayed for tests, given my history.
Of course, my heart problems were the reason why I wanted to be sure I was fully vaccinated and boosted. The chance of a bad outcome from getting COVID was much higher than the odds of a bad outcome from getting the vaccine or booster. I was just unlucky. I still think it was the right decision, given the mild to negligible reactions I had to the previous Moderna vaccines and risks of waning immunity. But I definitely will wait for a vaccine that isn’t mRNA based before getting another COVID shot, if I feel the need to get another booster at all.
That is the stance I have on vaccines now, even with my experience. Immunity from having had COVID may be better than the vaccines, but the best thing of all is to not get COVID in the first place. And vaccines have been quite clearly shown to dramatically reduce the risk of severe disease or death if you do get infected (with prior infections also showing the same thing, perhaps even better, but again, you have to get COVID and the risk of a bad outcome in order to get natural immunity).
In general, vaccines have been one of the most important discoveries in medical history. Anyone that isn’t known to be at heightened risk of adverse reactions to vaccines has enormous incentive to get vaccinated for anything that they might be exposed to. The risk assessment on that isn’t even close to being in question based on evidence.
I’m generally a big vaccine booster, and I think the mRNA technology is a huge advance in vaccines if done right. The relentless drive for tightly focused sterilizing immunity rather than broader immunity better approximating the natural immune response seems to have been a mistake, made it easier for the virus to mutate away from the vaccine.
Which shouldn’t have mattered for mRNA vaccines, because they can be updated extremely rapidly, and were. But the bureaucrats successfully blocked the updates from going out when it would have mattered. Operation Warp Speed was a triumph, but they jettisoned the warp core on 1/20/2021, and went back to impulse power, allowing viral mutation to pull ahead of vaccine updates.
The other big mistake, and I don’t think it will be limited to Covid, is that they simplified the injection protocol to skip the aspiration step that was supposed to make sure the vaccine would go into solid tissue, not accidentally into a vein. Something I’ve been complaining about for years now. I think that’s eventually going to be recognized as a big mistake, but not before adverse vaccine reactions hurt a lot of people.
It’s just dumb luck that I caught Covid a couple weeks before the vaccine was locally available for my cohort. I was certainly planning on getting it. OTOH, once I’d had it, it really got my hackles up to be pressured to get vaccinated anyway, as though that actually made any medical sense. It was just bureaucratic convenience; Vaccinations are better tracked than positive Covid tests. But it more and more turned into an ingrained denial of the validity of natural immunity, which caused a lot of suspicions among people who weren’t medically illiterate, and seriously warped policy in a situation where a huge portion of the population were no longer immunologically naive.
I agree, better to be vaccinated, the benefit might not be as great, but the cost is much lower on average. At least if you’re middle aged or older; The age component in Covid severity is very high, which means the cost-benefit ratio goes the other way for younger people. Which is why an increasing number of countries are actively prohibiting pediatric Covid vaccination outside of special cases. Even as we seem to be doubling down on it…
Three links for covid spread, for NY, FL, and WA. See e.g. the ‘Daily New Cases’ graphs.
WA (first case was late Jan): graph
…
NY (first case was March 1): graph
FL (like NY, first case on Mar 1): graph
Looking at those graphs (or the daily deaths graphs), I’m not seeing a lot of support for the thesis that the primary determinant of the severity of a state’s covid trajectory was the date covid arrived. It’s not like WA was awash in PPE equipment or something – I know because in spring 2020 my wife and I were working around the clock 3D printing face masks for local health care workers.
FL and NY had their initial cases on the same day, over a month after WA’s first case, yet the epidemic trajectory was different among the three states. This doesn’t seem to support Mr. Lathrop’s thesis that the northeast had more deaths over the length of the epidemic primarily because the epidemic had a headstart in the northeast.
I don’t know. The total deaths graph for NY looks very different from Florida or Washington. NY saw a large number of deaths early in the pandemic, and then was more gradual after that. Florida’s population is ~22 million, NY is ~20 million. Fairly similar, but NY hit 25k deaths by May 2020. Florida didn’t hit 25k until Jan 2021, but now has more total deaths than NY. Between Jun 2020 and the present, Florida has had twice as many deaths from COVID as NY.
“I don’t know.”
Exactly! I don’t know either. If someone wants to do a with-the-math analysis I’m all ears – I was just objecting to Mr. Lathrop’s facile analysis.
The trajectories are quite different. One thing I’d look at – one of the early, and quite tragic, outbreaks in Seattle (Kirkland, actually) was in a nursing home. That started, BTW, before NY had its first case. Perhaps because of that, WA did not adopt a policy of sending covid patients into nursing homes. It would be interesting to know how many of the early spike in NY’s deaths were nursing home residents – WA was working hard to keep covid out of nursing homes, and didn’t have a similar early spike in deaths. But again, I’m saying ‘I’d look hard at that’, not ‘I have a smoking gun’. I don’t have the data to tell.
Again, my objection is to confident assertions without any analysis to back them up.
Again, my objection is to confident assertions without any analysis to back them up.
Oh, absolutely. There are plenty of people that react with emotional and/or partisan bias on COVID issues from all directions. It isn’t just one side that is susceptible to that.* I teach science (chemistry and physics), so looking for reliable evidence before drawing conclusions is kind of important to me. That said, even with that as a value I hold, debating things on the internet is not my job, so I will only invest so much time looking for reliable evidence. (Really, we all could probably find much more productive and satisfying uses of our time than reading and writing comments about politics.)
*I’m not a “both sides” kind of person, though. Just because people of all political persuasions can display cognitive bias, doesn’t mean that it is equally shared. Different partisans and ideologues are given to different amounts of irrational thinking on different issues.
Since most red states were reducing restrictions in May 2020, let’s look at the deaths per 1,000,000 population of these three states from June 1, 2020 to the present.
Washington: 1,749
New York: 2,151
Florida: 3,667
I wonder how that would look across all states?
Here’s a comparison of COVID deaths per million in New York, California, and Florida since January 1, 2021, which is roughly when vaccines became available. California and New York are similar; Florida has a lot more deaths per million than either one. https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1591783841789886469
In 2018, both were relatively unknowns. Gillum only became known after his post-election foibles. Charlie Crist had shot himself in the foot with his flip flops, both in office and then politically. Meanwhile, DeSantis showed himself to be a strong administrator.
Meanwhile, DeSantis showed himself to be a strong administrator.
“Strong” seems to be something a lot of people want, not just on the right. That isn’t necessarily a good thing, since what some people think is “strong leadership” can look like bullying and overreach to others. Having an executive that is “strong” to the point that he has the legislature cowed into doing his bidding is dangerous, since it actually undermines the separation of powers. And that is what we have in Florida. DeSantis is the Florida government at this point. No Republicans in the legislature will stand up to him, even if they really do want to.
The problem here is that you only don’t like the “bullying” because you don’t like what he’s doing. If it was a Democrat pushing a Democratic controlled legislature to write $500,000 checks to every black or homosexual, you’d be cheering them on.
The problem here is that you only don’t like the “bullying” because you don’t like what he’s doing.
Could it be, then, that you don’t see what he does as bullying because you like it?
Practically yelling at some teenagers for wearing masks, while the one that didn’t take it off goes off camera for a moment and comes back without it. (He said later that an aide had motioned him out of view and told him that he couldn’t go back out there if he kept it on.)
Going after Disney for daring to speak out against one of his big culture-war moves. All after he had made sure that “theme park” owners wouldn’t have to worry about the ‘anti-censorship’ law he pushed against social media less than a year before.
Pushing for the creation of a special election police force, where the first announced arrests were of 20 people whose voter registrations had been approved. The state was supposed to flag them as ineligible (county election officials send the registration information to the dept. of state for eligibility verification).
Or how about pushing to criminalize donating money to citizen led ballot amendments, like the ones that Florida GOP tends to ignore when they don’t like them anyway? (All while taking enormous contributions for his campaign PAC.) Those kinds of actions have been blocked by the courts, state and federal, because they blatantly violate people’s rights. He then spends millions of Florida tax dollars defending these actions.
Then there is the infamous Martha’s Vineyard stunt, which almost certainly violated the very law he used to fund it, since it only authorized the funds to remove “unauthorized immigrants” from within Florida, not from Texas, and those with pending asylum claims aren’t unauthorized. (Oh, and the company contracted to arrange this was politically connected to Republicans via campaign donations, of course.)
The truth is clear. Owning the libs justifies all kinds of tactics and actions that would considered unethical if not actually corrupt if done by Democrats. It makes them “tough” and a “fighter” rather than someone that shouldn’t be allowed power. If that level of hypocrisy is really not a problem for you, then you have no business claiming a moral high ground, and certainly not for claiming to favor “limited government.”
If it was a Democrat pushing a Democratic controlled legislature to write $500,000 checks to every black or homosexual, you’d be cheering them on.
At first, I didn’t even want to take this bait, but let’s address it anyway.
No, I wouldn’t be okay with a Democrat governor pushing a Democratic controlled legislature to write $500,000 checks to every Black person, let alone cheer them on. I think that direct reparations for the descendants of slaves and those that suffered from segregation and discrimination afterwards is not the right policy. I do feel that there is a moral responsibility to complete the work of establishing genuine equality of opportunity, however. It is obvious that the Civil Rights movement was incomplete and that simply making discrimination illegal in the 60’s didn’t accomplish that.
Having wealth is a huge advantage when it comes to future social and economic success, so to think that equality of opportunity is possible when Blacks were so far behind whites in wealth is ridiculous. The right policy would be investing in things that might actually make a difference. It’s not just about money, but when you read about lead in drinking water, lead paint, and industrial areas with their pollution being close to residential areas that are mostly minority neighborhoods, you can see that infrastructure spending is not equally distributed, if nothing else.
As for bringing homosexuals into it, that is just you showing your bigotry.
1) He kept his base motivated with a constant diet of culture war stuff; and
2) The Democrats couldn’t be bothered to nominate a strong opponent (if they even had one available other than maybe Val Demings, who ran for Senate instead).
There were other factors, but those were the main ones.
Some of the other factors:
– The Democrats didn’t really distinguish themselves down-ticket, either. There weren’t a lot of close races for e.g. state legislature and Congress where even a narrow loss might have brought out additional Democratic voters and had some coattails for Crist.
– DeSantis won by less than 30,000 votes last time, and lost by more than that in the area around Disney. I thought his anti-Disney antics would hurt him in that area, but he seems to have actually gained support in e.g. Orange County. Why? I dunno.
– He solidified his support from Cuban-American voters in south Florida.
It’s hard to over-state how awful Crist was as a choice. I’m no fan of Nikki Fried, either, but at least she hadn’t undergone a Republican-to-Independent-to-Democrat transition over the last decade and change for, transparently, no other reason than to try to remain in elected office, some elected office, any elected office.
I live in western Alachua County, right on the border between (very) “blue” Gainesville and (very) red rural Alachua/Levy County. Seeing the enthusiasm gap in 2016 was what led me to believe Trump would carry Florida that year. I didn’t really see that gap this year, but I do suspect that a lot of “don’t usually vote” rural Republicans who were activated by Trump in 2016 REMAIN active instead of going back to not bothering, to DeSantis’s advantage.
I think the average productive American is tired of the corporate woke tactics than people realize.
Now, the “I want free shit and I want to be able to kill my baby” crowd is a formidable voting bloc, but still, Florida still has more productive people than parasites, for now.
I believe DeSantis won because of his handling of C-19. Floridians were forced to maintain status quo, and shaming or excluding unvaccinated/unmasked was virtually outlawed. I think this helped Florida move on from the pandemic waaay before other states or locales. We’ve been operating “normally” since summer 2020ish. Not many locations can boast that. And I think it has been beneficial for Floridians on the whole.