Dobbs Ain't Over Till It's Over

Don't get cocky.

Today I did several radio interviews about Dobbs. I expressed a somewhat unexpected optimism. These hosts, who are used to my dour pessimism, were somewhat surprised by my rosy outlook. My response: the case is not settled till it's published. Over the next seven months, there will be a vicious campaign to exert all manner of pressure on the Justices. The stench will be rancid. This case will make the NFIB chicanery seem tame.

It ain't over till it's over. So don't get cocky.

Comments

[QuantumBoxCat]

"Over the next seven months, there will be a vicious campaign to exert all manner of pressure on the Justices."

Says the guy who started pumping out advocacy pieces immediately after oral argument.

A pre-viability fetus has more self awareness than Josh.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

The plaintiff and defense made the oral argument; Josh makes the anal argument. Two stages done, one more to go. (Thank you, Dr. Freud.)

[IPLawyer]

Josh "Roberts must retire or I will continue to call him a clown" Blackman

[SomeGuy 2]

It really shows how asymmetrical the fight is. A pro-life victory would be... well, the Court doing nothing, the voters would get to decide the abortion issue. The pro-abortion side is freaking out because there might be democracy. Abortionists are so used to the courts imposing an abortion agenda that they don't know how to engage in conventional political advocacy. I assure them it's not the end of the world.

[Leo Marvin]

Now do Shelby.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

Yes, authority to determine abortion policy should devolve to the states. We don't need any nationwide one-size-fits-all abortion policy! Let each state decide its own abortion policy. That would be the second-best outcome.

(The best outcome would be that authority to determine abortion policy would devolve even further: from the states to the individual citizens. Let each person determine his or her own personal abortion policy. We don't need any state-wide one-size-fits-all abortion-policies either.)

[Doug Heffernan]

If the best outcome came to pass, how would some impose their will on others?

People who don't want to have abortions can already do that all day long. What would they gain if they also can't tell others that they can't have abortions?

[Brett Bellmore]

People who don't want to murder can already do that all day long. What would t hey gain if they also can't tell others they can't murder?

[Krychek_2]

You just keep telling yourself that it's murder; most of the country is unconvinced.

[Brett Bellmore]

Yeah, that's why support for elective abortion implodes after the first three months, and nobody but a small percentage of maniacs supports it in the third trimester: Because nobody really thinks it's murder.

[not guilty]

Brett, if elective abortion is murder, what penalty would you impose on a woman who procures her own abortion? The action there is plainly intentional, premeditated and deliberate. Should life imprisonment or death apply?

[Greg J]

You just keep telling yourself that it's murder; most of the country is unconvinced.

If that were true, you dishonest hacks wouldn't be obsessing about keeping Roe and Casey. Because you wouldn't need SCOTUS forcing your beliefs on the rest of us if the rest of us already shared them.

I'm curious, have you even heard of logic?

[Sarcastr0]

Do you know how a federated system works, Greg? Or the filibuster?

[Greg J]

The Federal Government has no business in abortion

At all

Which is why Roe and Casey are such bullshit

Where do you live Sarcastr0? Mississippi? No? you live in some Dem controlled State that will never pass any sort of abortion restrictions?

So, the issue here is that you're utterly desperate to force your way on everyone else? No matter how little it affects you?

[Greg J]

If the best outcome came to pass, how would some impose their will on others?

Are you really that stupid?

Every single time a mother murders her baby by having an abortion, she's "imposing her will" on the other.

[not guilty]

A lawful abortion and murder are mutually exclusive, like red and green or a circle and a rectangle. One cannot be the other.

[Greg J]

So I guess the Nazis didn't murder any Jews, because it was all "lawful"?

And the Chinese Communists aren't murdering any Urghurs, because that's all according to their law, too?

And none of you have accused Kyle Rittenhouse of "murdering" the scumbags he shot in self defense?

Yeah, right

[Pacific]

The cake is already baked. There is no lobbying to be done in the issue most dear to the conservative movement over the last forty years. The real poltock advocates, like Hugh Hewitt, want the decision overruling Roe, Case snd who knows why else, released in January to prepare for the midterm campaigns. You’ve won, as everyone paying attention knew you would. Meanwhile, Mississippi has the worst infant mortality rate of any state, so many of these babies certainly won’t be a burden on the state because they’ll be dead. Great work.

[Greg J]

"Meanwhile, Mississippi has the worst infant mortality rate of any state, so many of these babies certainly won’t be a burden on the state because they’ll be dead. Great work."

Care to give us a breakdown on how many babies in MS die the first 9 months out of the womb, vs the current number being killed while in it?

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

There's really no need to worry. We won't have a lot of women dying; that's just histrionics. We've gotten much better at handling hemorrhage and infection than we were in the early 1970s.

[Greg J]

Yeah, because we al know that every State in the union will immediately ban all abortions starting at conception the second Roe and Casey are struck down.

[Doug Heffernan]

The blackman kid just wanted to let us know that he did a lot of radio interviews today. And also that he is something like Han Solo.

His particular kind of expertise is in high demand. So very very busy. But he still takes the time not only to let us know about his upcoming newsweek article, but also about his radio appearances. And you can mark it down now, he'll be back here with another post when the link to the newsweek piece is ready.

We all should appreciate the effort and sacrifice. He surely must be tired, but he still made the time.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

AM radio interviews. The clingerverse spectrum, serving every person listening from the cab of a 17-year-old pickup truck at 2:45 on a weekday afternoon.

[SimonP]

Yep. He came back here to add the nasty bits to his Newsweek piece that the editors probably wouldn't let him include, as a bonus.

[IPLawyer]

Blackman flew halfway across the country to come and sit on a panel I invited him to only to ignore all the other panelists while they spoke, eating pizza and surfing the web on his laptop.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

I encourage Democrats not to become overconfident.

Conservatives could perfect a machine that mass-produces poorly educated, easily frightened, stale-thinking, roundly bigoted, superstitious, economically inadequate, resentful, gullible, rural, southern, elderly White males. The Volokh Conspirators and other Federalist Society members could devise and implement a way to register those newly minted clingers to vote.

If that happens, right-wingers could actually become competitive — or even reverse the half-century tide — in the American culture war and Republicans could avoid irrelevance in national elections for at least another generation.

[Doug Heffernan]

Are conservatives really sure that they'll get the type of extra babies they want once abortion is illegal?

[Paul McKaskle]

One way to "compromise" if Roberts wants it is the following:

Roe was fairly firm about freely allowing first trimester abortions. And thirteen weeks allows a woman to become aware that she is pregnant and seek an abortion so no reliance issues are involved. It also is approximately the amount of time allowed in almost all advanced democracies (ten to fourteen weeks in most Western European countries. While the constitutional basis for Roe is questionable, the first trimester rules have been the law for the past fifty years.

The problem is beyond the first trimester. Casey discusses the test of viability but that is a moving target. There also has been a great deal of scientific progress in understanding the development of the fetus and before viability the fetus has developed many human characteristics. Whatever constitutional argument for privacy or other considerations are attenuated when the fetus is further developed and the mother has carried the child for at least three months. Thus allowing abortions after twelve weeks can be restricted by the state and the restrictions imposed by Mississippi are reasonable for the post twelve week period. (So Casey is partially overruled-perhaps sub silentio.)

Therefore the Mississippi law stands. But abortions must be allowed on demand during the first twelve weeks.

Messy, but then Roe and Casey are messy. Not that it should be a factor, but I think the median voter would be most comfortable with a result like this. Abortion when really needed but limited in time.

[not guilty]

Moving the window of availability to fifteen weeks while continuing to recognize abortion as a fundamental right would entail less societal upheaval than allowing states to criminalize all abortions.

[Dan Schiavetta]

“Don’t get cocky.”

I think some self awareness is in order here.

[Sarcastr0]

A cheerleader that thinks they are actually on the team.

[Aunt Teefah]

"Over the next seven months, there will be a vicious campaign to exert all manner of pressure on the Justices. The stench will be rancid."

That's the Josh Blackman Guarantee.

[bernard11]

Over the next seven months, there will be a vicious campaign to exert all manner of pressure on the Justices. The stench will be rancid. This case will make the NFIB chicanery seem tame.

What "chicanery?"

This is beyond disgusting.

Josh really is a jackass.

[Sarcastr0]

I am not looking forwards to his 7 post victory lap.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

I am looking forward to his reaction to the reckoning. He is young enough that he is nearly certain to be around when Roe is reinstated and Heller (and other conservative darlings) are hammered beyond recognition.

I need to put a few bottles in the cellar to await those particular glorious days of culture war victory.

[Justice Barrett]

Has this page turned to Josh Blackman's personal blog? His stench has become unbearable.