The Volokh Conspiracy
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Dumping the Trump travel ban was a blunder
By the time it was revoked, it had morphed into a valuable counterterrorism tool
My latest op-ed, on Lawfare, argues that the Biden administration's first big counterterrorism blunder was getting rid of the Trump travel ban:
How, you might ask, could undoing such an unpopular and racist order possibly be a mistake? The answer is that, by the time of its revocation, the Trump travel ban had become something quite different from its starting point. Under pressure from the courts and the press, the leadership of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) had reshaped Trump's order into a calibrated security tool that depended not at all on the majority religion of the countries it affected.
One of DHS's great successes since 9/11 has been finding a way to let huge numbers of people into the country each day without giving up on security. The key is knowing more about each traveler, so that the government can make good risk-based decisions about who to admit. But that data-driven strategy only works if the U.S. has a minimum of cooperation from other governments. If the traveler's home government makes it easy to obtain a fake identity, or if it refuses to tell the U.S. about travelers with criminal or terrorist ties, a border security system that depends on traveler data will fail.
The original travel ban executive orders, issued in January and March of 2017, weren't grounded directly in the need for such cooperation. Instead, to determine which countries were subject to the ban, the orders simply borrowed their list from past congressional and executive designations. But these orders did contemplate that the temporary ban would be followed by an interagency effort to determine the kind of information needed to admit future travelers. DHS took this as a mandate to put the ban on a new footing—one that would support its data-driven, individualized assessment of travelers by encouraging deeper cooperation from other governments.
Many commentators have jeered at the idea of Republicans joining the Trump administration in the hope of contributing to government by sanding the rough edges off Trump's instincts and turning them into good policy. But this is such a case. DHS officials were able to transform Trump's off-the-cuff rhetoric into a defensible and important contribution to U.S. border security.
By September 2017, DHS's work was adopted in a presidential proclamation. It did not judge a handful of countries by the ethnicity or religion of their citizens; nor did it borrow its list from other legal contexts. Instead, the department had ranked 200 countries by how much help they give the U.S. in deciding who can safely be admitted to this country.
It is an unfortunate fact that some governments don't issue reliable identity documents, or don't bother to tell Interpol when one of their citizens' passports is stolen, even though such a passport can be used for a long time outside the country of issuance. Other governments are reluctant to share the criminal or terrorist records of their citizens, and a few are so hostile that the U.S. can't count on them for any help in spotting terrorists.
The U.S. has a pretty good idea which countries are doing a good job on these and other measures of cooperation. In fact, in its initial review, DHS found almost 50 countries whose identity systems or information sharing with the U.S. needed improvement. It told them all that their citizens could be caught in an expanded and revamped travel ban.
No one wanted to end up on the new list. DHS was able to open talks, not just with the least helpful governments but with any that didn't meet the highest standards. The result was heartening. Nearly 30 countries provided document exemplars that could be used to spot fake IDs. According to testimony by Assistant Secretary Elizabeth Neumann, three countries agreed to issue more secure passports. Nearly a dozen agreed to share more information about known or suspected terrorists.
I have negotiated such information sharing agreements with other countries on behalf of DHS, and getting even one new agreement is an accomplishment. DHS's achievement here is impressive.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/hidden-cost-undoing-travel-ban
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Replacement policy: news media will simply cover for the Biden Administration if there’s a terrorist attack that would have been prevented.
News media will ignore the dead and suffering from the attack and do profile pieces on someone fearing a backlash.
"Republicans Pounce on Biden Administration's Moral and Compassionate Travel Policy"
A real-life example -- in sworn court documents, the FBI admits knowing about the plot to trespass in the Capitol four days in advance and yet neither they nor all of Queen Pelosi's men (CHPD) could prevent what essentially were a bunch of over-aged fratboys from breaking into the building.
The most powerful nation that the world has ever seen, versus people carrying spears -- and the people carrying spears won. And no one in the media is quite saying that, are they?
Let's start with the simple stuff -- of the 2300 CHPD officers, at least 1000 were off-duty that day. What department doesn't cancel all days off when trouble is expected?!? (I've seen departments go to a mandatory 18 hours on, 6 hours off, 18 hours on scheduling when they've expected trouble.) And the CHPD answers to Pelosi -- she's the one who fired their chief.
Because the cops were part of the protest?
Cite?
Nobody will be shocked to hear that Dr. Ed is lying about what the "FBI admits."
Nobody will be shocked to hear that there is no such thing as "CHPD." (Well, I suppose there might be - the Chapel Hill Police Dept, maybe? - but it's nothing relevant here.) There is a USCP (U.S. Capitol Police). But of course it is not "Pelosi's." It answers ultimately to the House and Senate.
And of course this was not about "trespass" or "frat boys."
Replacement policy: Ilya Somin will simply cover for the Biden Administration. FTFY.
First I'm not sure the travel ban was as unpopular as sometimes depicted.
If it's really a useful tool Biden with take a victory lap for repealing the "travel ban" and keep the other stuff in place. I don't plan to read the EO but did the EO merely repeal the Trump EOs of January and March 2017 and leave in place the Proclamation of September 2017?
Even if the Proclamation is withdrawn, there is nothing keeping the current administration for continuing the policy as before.
True it was a blunder. Name something Biden has done that is not a blunder?
name something that anyone of obama's or biden's foreign team that was a success.
hint - Sending a few million $'s to Iran and other steps to enhance Irans nuclear program isnt a success.
"I have negotiated such information sharing agreements with other countries on behalf of DHS, and getting even one new agreement is an accomplishment. DHS's achievement here is impressive."
Damn right. As is Trump's State Department (headed by a CIA guy) success in getting people who really don't like each other (and probably *still* don't) to at least agree to stop shooting each other.
No matter how much Orangeman offended you, anyone with a scintilla of human decency has to admit that getting people to stop killing each other is an inherently *good* thing. Likewise getting the folk in the former Yugoslavia to recognize each other's college degrees and hence ending a shortage of medical personnel causing real problems to both sides.
If there ever was anyone who deserved the Nobel Peace Prize, it is Trump -- not just for the wars he ended but the ones he didn't start -- except he'll never get it. Yet Obama, who went through drone-fired Hellfire missiles like frat boys through cans of beer, got one...
Ilya Soyman needs to get educated by Steward Baker
There is no such race as Muslim. Islam is both a religion and a political ideology. It is Newspeak of the worst kind to use the term racist in this context. Orwell frowns.
I don't buy it. The final travel ban iteration was indeed on far firmer legal grounds than previous iterations (especially the shambolic first one). But guiding determinations purely on national origin/residency/etc. is an incredibly coarse mechanism that ignores individual variation -- no different in principle from judging the reputation of someone by the color of their skin.
Even if there is some correlation between dangerousness and national origin, it's not strong enough to work -- and it's going to harm all sorts of people who might even act directly antithetically to the nation in question. For example, I personally know and have worked with someone who emigrated from Iran to Canada who has worked on technology that runs directly counter to Iranian domestic interests. I have little doubt Iran would take a dim view of some of the projects he's worked on, and I could well imagine the right fig leaf of an excuse would be enough for them to take an active interest in him. Yet our blunderbuss approach would have treated him identically to actually dangerous people, and definitely it antagonized not just him but also the community we both participated in, by making it impossible for us to meet up in the US without excluding him. (That inability to meet probably also harmed US economic interests, in that we met up outside the US -- and so spent money outside the US doing so -- so the travel ban wouldn't be an issue for him and perhaps others.)
I think the final iteration of the travel ban may have been constitutional. The plenary powers doctrine is longstanding, and I do not think -- however good an idea it would be as a matter of policy -- judges can simply declare it out of existence. (On the other hand, perhaps it ought not stand under the exact clause of law used to support it, because that clause was so vague as to be an unconstitutional delegation of power from the legislative branch to the executive branch. But that question wasn't presented in court, unfortunately.) But it was bad policy, it was a coarse measure that mischaracterized a ton of people as threats, it created hostility among the affected people and their friends -- and no one should spend any time defending it. (The travel ban measures -- now gone, so even if you liked them, well, look how far it got you -- probably even distracted from more significant policy wins, too. So if you're a Trump supporter, think what wasting all the time and effort on this cost you in other policy areas...)
Didn't read the OP I guess.
It's not the correlation between national origin and dangerousness, but the policies of the nation of origin that allow (or prevent) determining the individual's dangerousness.
The policies of the nation of origin might matter to some degree, but they still shouldn't be a trump card. And while there were off-ramps in the ban as alluded to in Supreme Court oral argument, they didn't really exist in practice. Nation of origin ended up basically being a rigid filter, not one factor of many to consider -- and one that ought most often be outweighed by information specific to the individual in question.
Had nothing to do with country of origin. ONLY in that the named countries had failing governments that were incapable or unwilling to vet those seeking documents to travel.
Utter nonsense.
The Obama admin had policies dealing with that. No need for a total ban.