All Good Things Must End. And So Must 2020

Meantime, write your predictions for 2021 here.

Comments

[Dr. Ed 2]

Biden/Harris will go down in flames as the extent to which the election was rigged becomes known, with Trump using talk radio to harass them daily. Trump will become the new Rush Limbough, with Pence elected POTUS in 2024.

[ducksalad]

Counterprediction:
After a few years the consensus among informed, not-rabidly-partisan people will be that (as usual) there were a few organized cases of absentee ballot fraud, amounting to maybe a few thousand votes total, and (as usual) mostly but not exclusively Democrats. Some few honestly debatable deadline extensions, but the extra votes almost all otherwise legitimate voters, and not enough to swing any states. In other words: a mostly normal election, with a reasonable compromise between integrity concerns and voter access concerns, that was not all that close and therefore correctly identified the winner.

Within two years, only 35-40% of people in polls will admit they voted for Trump, even though he really got 47%. Commenters at this site will claim they never said there was massive fraud, they only wanted a fair investigation.

The one thing you are correct on is Trump, who will go back into media and probably be fairly successful at it as long as his health holds up.

Pence will try in 2024 but not even get the nomination. Ever notice that those Trump flags you see everywhere don't even have Pence in the fine print?

[Dr. Ed 2]

Countercounterprediction -- the stock market will crash in response to the Bite Her Arse administration's proposals and it will be just like Nixon in '73 when no one admitted voting for him. We're heading into another four years of Jimmy Carter economics...

If there is any validity to the allegations of law firms such as Perkins Cole using the tactic of "sue & settle" to get election laws ignored, that'll come out. I predict that the tactic of "sue & settle" will soon be dealt with the way that SLAPP has been -- and that the legal profession is looking at another post-Watergate period of ethical re-evaluations. (Remember that most of the current bar ethics stuff came out of Watergate.)

What's not known about Mike Pence is that he was actually running things during the Trump administration -- now as to him being able to leverage that into a nomination, I don't know, but the Trump baton is Trump's to pass.

Rush Limbaugh could have had the nomination in 1996 had he wanted it, and probably could have gotten it in 2012, maybe even 2008. Rush didn't want to give up what he was doing -- and openly said so. I'm not sure that Trump really wanted to be POTUS, or to have a national platform from which to articulate policy. If he's having too much fun condemning Bite Her Arse and folk like Occasional Cortex, he may not want to run in 2024 and then the Trump baton goes to whomever he wants to give it to.

[Poor Yorick]

I would really love to get you to put your money where your mouth is.

Are you willing to bet that the Stock Market doesn't "crash"? Or that there will continue to be no proof that stands up to judicial scrutiny of election fraud large enough to change election results? Or that Pence doesn't get elected President? Or any other of your outlandish predictions? Are you willing to stand behind your assertions with something other than anonymous blather?

[StellaLink_the dog]

"Are you willing to stand behind your assertions with something other than anonymous blather?"
Perhaps there is nothing else.

[Alpheus W Drinkwater]

Perhaps?

[Stephen Lathrop]

PY, I would be delighted to give 3–1 that Pence will not be elected in 2024, and feel like I was taking unfair advantage of anyone foolish enough to take me up on it. My best guess would be that it's about 50–1 against Pence, but I'm not financially situated to take that kind of risk.

[SimonP]

I'm amazed that anyone thinks Trump is going to stick around. What's he doing now? He's completely absent from performing any presidential functions, and his media appearances amount to a smattering of rambling tweets and, from time to time, putting on an hour-long complain-fest.

He's as interested in doing the work of becoming a major media figure as he was in becoming a real estate tycoon or major reality TV show star. The Fox&Friends schtick worked for him because he could call in from his toilet whenever he wanted. To think that he's going to go back to doing anything besides golfing half the time is a bit delirious.

His kids, though - they might try to ride his coattails. You know, 'cause they're so charismatic and good at their jobs.

[California Dreamer]

I hope you're right, but I'm not convinced. Trump's not doing much now because he's still trying to come up with a way to overturn the election results. Once he finds out that ain't gonna happen, he'll focus on what's next. Trump's M.O. is to be a nonpolitician -- he brands himself as an outsider. That means he doesn't behave as other politicians have done when they were out of office. Instead, his most likely strategy if he wants to run again is to stay in the public eye and to maintain that image as an outsider. While I almost never agree with Dr. Ed 2, he may well be right that Trump will try to imitate Rush Limbaugh, or, more likely, become a regular FOX commentator. (I know he's mad at FOX right now, but these things can change overnight.) In a few years, he can start gearing up to run in 2024.

[MatthewSlyfield]

Democrats like harping on the national popular vote. The 2020 official result for the NPV was Joe Biden 51.4% / Donald Trump 46.9% a margin of 4.5%. Not sure where you get the idea that people in the future will think it was "not all that close".

Although you are probably close with the rest of it.

[Alpheus W Drinkwater]

Republicans like harping on the electoral college as the real election. What percentage of the electors did Trump win?

[Nick Gillespie's Jacket]

Trump is too lazy and undisciplined to be the next Rush (IMO). Whatever else anyone thinks of Rush, it is very difficult to prep for, and then perform, three hours a day, five days each week. Plus, I can’t see Trump doing anywhere near the amount of prep work and research needed to actually discuss current topics for hours on end, day after day. He has shown almost no interest in the legislative process, and it’s clear he often has no idea what policies his own White House has pushed for (in his budget, for example). Thus, while he could be entertaining at an hour-long campaign rally, I can’t see Trump putting in anywhere near the time and effort required to have a daily show.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Don't confuse ADHD with being lazy -- it's actually the opposite. Trump is notorious for expecting everyone else to work the long hours that he does. Trump made the same mistake that US Grant made -- thinking that the discipline of the corporate or military structure would apply to a Presidential administration.

[Brian Thomas]

I wish I got to work the long hours Trump works. I haven't been able to get out on the golf course in a long time.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Yeah, but watching Fox, OAN, Newsmax -- that's hard work. Not to mention all the time in consultation with Stephen Miller.

[Stephen Lathrop]

ADHD combined with aversive illiteracy pretty much rules out sustained brain work. And physical labor is obviously out. Trump really is ideally constructed for riding around in golf carts. It's no wonder he loves it so. It makes him feel like he's getting something done:

The golf links lie so near the mill
That almost every day
The laboring children can look out
And see the men at play.

[California Dreamer]

Why can't he become a commentator for FOX? They'd love to have him -- he'll boost the ratings. And it doesn't require sustained brain work. He just says whatever comes into his head, the same thing he's been doing for the last 4 years. I would love to think he will fold his tent and silently steal away, but the poem says that's what Arabs do and he doesn't like Arabs, except maybe MBS and a few other rich Saudis. He's going to be around for a while, and those who think he will disappear are engaged in wishful thinking.

[santamonica811]

I think that's the most likely path forward. Rush is sort of a genius. He says idiotic (IMO) things. But often with humor, thinking quickly on his feet, etc etc. Things Trump cannot do. But Trump could absolutely go on all the non-real-rews Fox shows and give them an entertaining 5-minute rant. Will it be a coherent point? No, probably not. But I don't think his base will care. Do a weekly "Trump-Tuesday" block at the same time, and Tucker (et al) will see a huge bump in his ratings.

I hope he's successful post-presidency. Would love to see him able to fully pay off his creditors for the first time in his history.

[Stephen Lathrop]

Dr. Ed, Grant's military success was founded on extraordinary adaptability, and acute powers of observation. He excelled at evaluating the qualities of military subordinates. He gathered battlefield information more systematically than his rivals. He thought originally. He invented military strategies unmatched anywhere until after WW I. The canard that he naively expected military discipline from civilian office holders seems out of place with that record.

More likely, Grant's peccadilloes in office came in part from a fault of excessive personal loyalty, including loyalty too-long continued to former friends and associates after they betrayed it. That fundamental managerial sin was compounded by two other facts.

First, Grant was an anti-racist attempting to lead a profoundly racist nation, at a time of racist resurgence. Despite reelection, Grant paid a price in widespread political hostility for that. That hostility colored a good deal of subsequent historical reflection on the Grant administration.

Second, 1873 began an interval of stubbornly persistent world-wide economic recession—perhaps the first such event since the sustained boom that accompanied then-novel capitalist expansion during prior decades. That recession also affected America, at a time when administrative tools to manage the national economy were lacking.

The custom has its place for blaming political leaders for conditions which prevail during their terms of leadership. Leaders are, after all, widely expected to become the masters of conditions. Historically, that expectation sometimes seems reasonable, sometimes not. However reasonable or unreasonable it is, it can become a disruptive wild card when comparing the qualities of one political leader against others who were differently situated.

[Milhouse]

All Good Things Must End. And So Must 2020

Which is a good thing!

[Sometimes Bad Is Bad]

Fauci moves the goal posts once again and says we'll all be OK after the 2022 midterms.

[Joe_dallas]

Fauci & other expert epidemiologists will continue to recommend masks and social distancing to protect every one from every flu virus and the common cold. Effectively advocating that the human species evolve such that we can only survive in sterile environments.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Sometime in the next six months to a year, if vaccine distribution is successful, covid will be brought under control and we can all get back to normal and covid and Trump will just be bad memories. The question that we need to decide is how many deaths do we want in between now and then. The difference between current behavior and more widespread mask wearing and social distancing is probably about 250k. In 2021, how many covid deaths do you want? 200k - 300k or 300k- 500k?

[Á àß äẞç ãþÇđ âÞ¢Đæ ǎB€Ðëf ảhf]

You to think all deaths are equal, and all people are equally infectious and equally at risk.

'taint so.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Perhaps we should have a Ministry of Human Value which can assign every American a score based on the benefit and cost of that person's continued existence. Some people would be found to have an existence which adds little benefit but adds significant cost risks. For example, superannuated members of the permanent leisure class who generate almost no economic benefit other than consumption and who pose a much greater risk of severely taxing the health care system when they get sick with the Trump virus. Off to the knackery with them.

[StellaLink_the dog]

We could appoint Stephen Miller as permanent minister. I'm sure he would enjoy that and he could learn how to do the spread sheets with one hand.

[Á àß äẞç ãþÇđ âÞ¢Đæ ǎB€Ðëf ảhf]

Or perhaps we could trust people to look after themselves and judge their own risk of being infected, and quarantine only the infected instead of quarantining the entire population under house arrest.

The know-it-all elite cannot understand or accept this.

[StellaLink_the dog]

We need to ramp up manufacture of body bags and figure out how to get the necssary hospital capacity and the neccessary health care workers.

[Squirrelloid]

Illinois eliminated excess hospital capacity in November that it had added in May, because it never came close to needing to use it. Total illinois used hospital capacity has been basically flat all year, despite large fluctuations in covid-related hospital use. ~1/4 of capacity has never been used.

Illinois wasn't New York, but it saw a decent number of infections. It also conveniently publishes state-wide hospital utilization by week.

[Joe_dallas]

Stella the dog comment - "The difference between current behavior and more widespread mask wearing and social distancing is probably about 250k"

Absent those regions with iron fisted hard lockdown, the different levels of mitigation ie high levels of mitigation vs areas with low levels of mitigation have resulted in rather trivial differences in the trajectory of the viral spread. Compare and contrast the harder lockdowns/masking social distancing of CA, NY, MN, CO (along with the timing) vs the much laxer level of compliance with TX, FL, MT, KS GA, You should notice the timing of the surges, the Infection rates, etc are largely unaffected by the different levels of mitigation, or at best only marginally affected

[Squirrelloid]

There's not going to be another 500k covid-19 deaths. That's ridiculous. You'd need more than 100% of the population to get infected.

Covid-19 will probably naturally burn out before the vaccine is even administered to half the population, and would certainly burn out by next christmas, even without a vaccine. (Administering the vaccine to half the population is unlikely to happen before June, and maybe not until August or later).

Meanwhile, i predict bigger deficits and zero action to resolve the US debt or SS's coming insolvency for yet another year.

[Joe_dallas]

"Meanwhile, i predict bigger deficits and zero action to resolve the US debt or SS’s coming insolvency for yet another year."

Only quibble with your comment is that SS is already insolvent. That Lockbox trust fund of US treasuries is phantom. the sole source of revenue to repay those Treasuries are the US taxpayers. Paul Krugman's assurance, not withstanding

[Joe_dallas]

California is number one

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/12/29/and-lockdown-crazy-california-jumps-into-the-lead/

Those most stringent mitigation measures in the US have moved California to first place. Congradulations

[Dr. Ed 2]

Things will get interesting when we start seeing Fauci being burnt in effigy. There is a backlash coming and it won't be pretty.

[StellaLink_the dog]

You would be wise to not stock up on KY jelly in anticipation of a celebration as you would likely be sorely disappointed.

[Dr. Ed 2]

You use Diesel fuel, not KY jelly, to burn effigies.

Biotech, hospitals and those in the medical professions have done very well this year -- while everyone else hasn't -- and they are going to be attacked the way that Jacksonian-era populism attacked Biddle and other bankers.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Dream on, Sparky.

[Armchair Lawyer]

Fauci changes his recommendations in response to opinion polls. Opinion polling organizations recognize this, and change their polling to get the "expert response" that they want....

[Darth Chocolate]

Trump will leave the White House without any of the drama the Left has been warning us about.

That makes him worse than Hitler, and a power-hungry dictator to boot.

He will show the same deference to the Commander in Thief, that the left showed him over the past 4 years.

[StellaLink_the dog]

It would be my wish that we get through the next weeks with little drama, but it looks as though there is significant risk of more than a passing bit on January 6. Trump, it seems, has the ability to create a real mess. It could get pretty bad and Trump and his lovely wife might end up in the same literal positions as Benito and his mistress.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Trump and his lovely wife might end up in the same literal positions as Benito and his mistress.

That would instantly provoke a shooting civil war.

[StellaLink_the dog]

You have the sequence of events mixed up.

[Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland]

Why is there so much talk of political violence at a right-wing blog with a scant academic veneer, operated by a collection of Federalist-Bator-Olin-Bradley-Heritage-Republican law professors?

Why is liberal-libertarian content censored at such a blog, while right-wingers' calls for violence are not?

Those who hire for faculties at strong long schools should consider these questions when pondering whether to hire a Federalist Society-certified clinger whisperer in a nod toward diversity.

[Bored Lawyer]

Prediction for 2021.

Experts will make predictions, most of which will not come true.

And they will not be held to account, but go on being treated as experts.

[Joe_dallas]

making predictions - especially about the future is hard

[Joe_dallas]

"And they will not be held to account, but go on being treated as experts."

and We, shall continue to pay homage to the experts because we should follow the science

[Jerry B.]

Harris will decide that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment applies, and become Acting President until she can get Biden to resign, or die.

[JohannesDinkle]

Democrats in the House, all squad members or allies, will restart the Hunter Biden scandal. In camera they will present Biden with the choice of resignation or an impeachment with criminal charges - ignoring that there will be zero Republican votes. Biden, so isolated from anyone not approved by the machine, thinks the threat is real and resigns 'for health reasons.'
Hail to the new chief!

[Brett Bellmore]

I don't think Biden really needs sneer quotes around "for health reasons"; While he's hardly suffering from outright dementia yet, (The debates should have put an end to that theory.) he doesn't seem to have the energy necessary for the job, and he IS at an age when mental decline sets in pretty rapidly for most people. And he never had a reputation as a genius to begin with.

I expect Harris to function as a sort of acting President on an unofficial level until 2 years are up; If she doesn't replace Biden officially until less than 2 years were left in the term, she'd legally still be able to serve for 2 full terms on her own. But a medical emergency could move up that schedule at any time, without warning.

[Dr. Ed 2]

If Obama is the puppetmaster behind all of this -- and I'm starting to think he is -- then he's going to want Harris to be eligible for two elected terms, and hence not be POTUS before 2023.

[santamonica811]

Oh Thank God . . . I was afraid 2021 was going to bring an end to the idiotic "It all goes back to Obama" paranoid delusions.

Thank you for disabusing me of such a quaint notion.

[Á àß äẞç ãþÇđ âÞ¢Đæ ǎB€Ðëf ảhf]

No she won't. She is too lazy to want to deal with a recalcitrant Senate, and while Biden still has a lot of personal contacts there, Kamala was too lazy and divisive to have earned any respect. If she were to shove Biden out of the way, the backlash would mean getting nothing done except making fresh enemies, and the 2022 midterm elections would be even more anti-President. She doesn't want to leave a legacy of getting nothing done.

[Stephen Lathrop]

The virus subsides. The economy comes back, but too slowly. Republicans attempt to block whatever might earn popular credit for Democrats, so Republicans do what they can to sabotage any prospect of an economic boom. If Republicans can impose a new economic recession, they do it.

Biden gets an uneven start on what becomes the first year of an increasingly troubled presidency. Political agendas of both parties continue muddled. A few years hence, both agendas will be recast, and clarify. Before then—almost immediately—a forward-looking struggle for control of the Senate in 2022 will get under way. Concentration on that will turn present legislative politics toward political theater, making legislative accomplishments harder to achieve. National affairs will feel increasingly frustrating, as if in abeyance, waiting for resolution of a too-long postponed crisis.

But, early signs of a 2024 generational political handoff—from Boomers to Millennials—begin to be felt, mostly as intra-party strife in both parties. Politicians born before 1980, including some who now think of themselves as waiting in the wings of power, are frustrated to discover themselves passed by, but that comes mostly after 2021.

Trump strives to keep control of the Republican Party, but suffers distractions, his capacities diminish, and he begins to fade. Upstart would-be leaders of the erstwhile Trump base—maybe including one or more named Trump—make an appearance. What might happen in struggles among them becomes a vivid national focus.

[Brett Bellmore]

I've already said that, while the 2024 nomination is probably Trump's if he wants it, barring medical issues, he'd be better off grooming a successor.

The GOP establishment thinks they can get rid of Trump, and go back to normal. But Trump wasn't the cause of the departure from their preferred "normal", he was a symptom of it failing. The long con they've been running on their electoral base has been falling apart for years, the GOP has had at least a low level civil war going since the mid 90's.

Trump proved to the Republican electorate that the party establishment's gatekeeping can be defeated. That's not going to be forgotten. Trump will leave the scene sooner or later, but things are NOT going back to normal for the GOP.

[Dr. Ed 2]

The GOP civil war started with Reagan in 1976. Possibly even with Barry Goldwater in 1964.

[SimonP]

Wake up, Brett. The Republican party is not going to stand aside and let Trump just have the nomination, if he wants it. There are too many ambitious politicians on the right, and they all view themselves as the second coming. If they have to adopt Trumpist politics to do it, they will - and they are. They'll shoulder him out of the way, promise to "govern" like he did, and try to win that way.

Meanwhile, the sole function of Trump's re-election campaign will be to bilk his supporters of millions, which will get channeled into shady LLCs and pay off his debts. That's the scam.

[loki13]

There is an anecdote about an AI; the gist is the you invent an AI to make pencils, and over time, the AI will co-opt all the resources in the world to make pencils. Because that is what the AI will do, and it doesn't have any concern for pesky humanity. After all, it is all about the pencils.

I mention this in the context of Facebook. I was an early Facebook adopter, but gave it up in '09 when the privacy implications became clear. The increasing danger of Facebook isn't so much the privacy, though. I mean, sure, "panopticon Facebook" knowing everything about you to micro-target your data to advertisers and using your photos for face recognition isn't great, but I missed the real issue.

It's that, like the pencil-making AI, algorithms that are designed to increase "engagement" as the sole metric can have some seriously nasty side-effects. Contemplation, thoughtful consideration, long-form writing, even-handed analysis ... none of these are conducive to the almighty engagement. Unfortunately, the what matters is emotions- among them, anger. It's a network for spreading disinformation and emotion, quickly. It's not that it's evil, like any tool, it's neutral. But it's not a "tool" like a hammer- it's more akin to a cigarette; it's designed to feel good, and you shouldn't worry about the long-term effects.

Facebook leads to radicalization. Every single person on us (and there are BILLIONS) is shown a completely different world, and that world is programmed to keep us involved. It is hardly surprising that we see more and more people on all sides retreat into positions that seem ... well, unsupportable. Radical. Because they are constantly fed reinforcing messages, because that is what engages them.

Which is why I think that the prescriptions that we are seeing now miss the point, and are almost laughable. The left views Facebook as a monopoly issue and an advertising issue primarily. The right views Facebook as a "free speech" issue (which I have assumed is a case of 'working the refs' that has morphed into a mistaken belief). Neither catches the actual danger, which is that we don't have the proper understanding of how it works and what it is doing, and that the scale is so vast that it is difficult to comprehend.

Moreover, the singular and curated nature of Facebook and their associated social media companies (Instagram etc.), where everyone gets their own, individual "feed" (for lack of a better phrase) makes the problem even more slippery from a cognitive standpoint. "Sure, that person's facebook feed is littered with crud and misinformation and radicalizing crud, but mine is only the good stuff that I want!" Unlike a fixed site, most people cannot even be given a reference point to what the issue is.

So my prediction for 2021 is that more people will gradually become aware of this issue.

...and, most likely, complain about it on Facebook. We're doomed.

[Allutz]

The runaway AI makes paperclips you uncultured swine!

[loki13]

It's variously states as paper clips, or pencils, or a machine that writes thank you notes; the actual object doesn't matter.

Unlike the Chinese Room, I don't believe that it has a agreed-to shorthand form.

[Squirrelloid]

It does. It's 'paperclipper'.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

Go back to myspace, old man!

[loki13]

You should've went with friendster.

[SimonP]

I think you're right about the dangers of social media. What's more, there's research suggesting that precisely the mode of engagement you describe - emotional, panicked, radicalized - makes our brains more susceptible to suggestion and less likely to carefully examine the merit of claims being made to us. The whole machine is basically designed to deliver misinformation. Which, I suppose, isn't that surprising, considering it was originally intended to deliver us advertising.

[Aladdin's Carpet]

Hopefully, people stop caring about politics to the extent they do and stop rabidly worshipping one politician or another and start focusing on policy, pragmatism over ideology.

Probably not but one can hope.

[Brett Bellmore]

The problem is, you can stop caring about politics, but politics won't stop caring about you.

[loki13]

That's not really true.

Think about the last 20 years. I cannot guarantee what is going on in your neck of the woods, but I know that what has happened at the local level (state, county, city) has had a much greater impact on my day-to-day life than what happens at the federal level.

It's not that these things don't matter. Yes, they do. But despite the constant screaming, the actual differences are small when it comes to the federal government; minor tax cuts or tax hikes. Small amounts of deregulation (and industry capture) or small amounts of regulation (and industry capture).

In terms of how it has affected, genuinely affected, my life, it is fairly minimal, especially given the wide-ranging effects that can happen at the local level.

When you combine that with your complete and total lack of control and (TBH) how little you actually know about what is going on*, you have to wonder why you care so much.

*I don't mean to belittle your knowledge, Brett. But I would advise you to take on something easy- say, your state legislature, or city commission. Think about everything you know about it and what you pontificate. Then find someone who actually understands what is going on and find out how things are really done and have them explain things to you.

Then try and compare that to what you think about at the national level.

[SimonP]

This has not been true for me. I live in NYC. The 2017 tax cuts hit our economy pretty hard, and Trump's antagonism has made things more difficult at a local level. A major rail/tunnel project has been mothballed due to Trump nixing a major funding source. Attempts to regulate congestion have been gummed up by foot-dragging on necessary federal approvals. Immigration enforcement actions are interfering with local law enforcement priorities. Our public transit system is on the verge of major service reductions due to the failure of federal talks to shore it up with federal funds. And the mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic has hit our tourism, restaurant, and bar industries particularly hard.

I think that, generally speaking, if you think the federal government doesn't impact your day-to-day life a lot, there's maybe a lot of impact you're not that aware of.

[Aladdin's Carpet]

Does it? How much of everything that was discussed over the past 4 years really matter?

Every story was Trump, Russia, Trump, Hunter Biden, scandal, etc ... Substantiative things did happen, but they were hardly reported on. Even if we assume federal stuff matters, which is quite the assumption already.

[Brett Bellmore]

Executive orders up the wazoo, and national injunctions will return to being rare. Well, except for cases that are actually "sue and settle".

Democrats will find a RINO in the Senate who wants to be rich, and suddenly have a tie they can work with.

Social media platform censorship will not drop back to pre-election norms, but instead continue to increase. What works, you do more of, and it evidently worked.

Trump will set out to create a competing media infrastructure. The GOP will attempt to sabotage this, they're comfortable with being the Washington Generals.

[NToJ]

"The GOP will attempt to sabotage this, they’re comfortable with being the Washington Generals."

The GOP went with the President and then got spanked in the mid-term. And then he couldn't win a second term, even with the GOP's support. If they want to be the Generals, they should just keep putting him up and hope the Democrats run Hillary again.

[Aladdin's Carpet]

Otherwise, we will probably get meaningful immigration reform at some point in the near future. Bold, I know, but criminal justice reform was being discussed in the right circles around this point at 2016, and that got done, so I'll bet the same thing happens to immigration reform.

Economically, people have saved up a great deal and paid down a lot of existing credit card debt. Particulsrly upper class people. Once this thing recides, there will be a strong boost in consumption that will be very difficult for the federal reserve to control. However, it will overall be a good thing.

[MoreCurious]

1. Trump stays in Florida and never returns to the White House.
2. Trump pardons, among others, his sister, Don, Jr., Eric, Ivanka, Jared, and Rudy.
3. Trump resigns.
4. President Pence pardons Trump.
5. Trump isolates himself at Mar-a-Lago and becomes the 21st Century version of Howard Hughes.

[Brett Bellmore]

No chance of #3/4; First, Pence doesn't want to be the new Ford, end his political career for Trump's sake.

Second, the real legal threat for Trump isn't federal prosecution, (He kept the bargain, never did go after Hillary, so Biden will keep the bargain in return.) it's state, and Presidential pardons don't work for state crimes. So the pardon would be pointless.

I do see some possible attempts at a "Samson in the Temple" scenario, where Trump declassifies stuff that really blows the lid off DC. But likely sabotaged by the bureaucracy's refusal to obey orders, they've already refused to comply with previous declassification orders.

[MoreCurious]

Don't you think that by pardoning Trump, President Pence would become the new hero of the 70+ million hardcore Trumpists?

[Brett Bellmore]

I think he would lose at least some of them, probably a significant fraction. He'd lose me, anyway.

And my chief reason for dismissing the scenario is that the pardon is basically useless, because it wouldn't protect Trump from state prosecution, which is the real threat he's facing.

[StellaLink_the dog]

It doesn't look to me as though Pence is likely to inherit much of
Trump's popularity. His salient performance, and source of national popularity, is following Donald Trump around on his hands and knees sticking his cold wet nose where it doesn't belong. When Trump exits and Pence no longer has the role of Trump's bobble-head in chief, Pence slides back into well-deserved obscurity.

Republicans to watch: Tom Cotton and Pompeo, if he can lose 75# and avoid medical catastrophe.

[Brett Bellmore]

Pence delivered exactly what he was hired to deliver: A complete and utter lack of drama and surprises. The media hardly even tried to manufacture any Pence scandals, and gave it up as hopeless pretty quickly.

A total lack of scandals and corruption could look pretty good in 2024, after Trump AND Biden.

[StellaLink_the dog]

What Biden scandal? So, maybe Hunter cheated on his taxes, so what?
One thing a Pence candidacy would probably do is crater he Lunesta mrket.

[Brett Bellmore]

Still in denial about Hunter paying his dad a share, are you?

[bernard11]

Evidence? Of course not. Brett doesn't need evidence.

And no, the unverified, unauthenticated, mystery laptop emails don't count.

Got a cite on Hunter's lawyer's admission yet?

And when can we expect that Trump concession you promised after the EC voted?

[StellaLink_the dog]

Some reliable/admissible evidence of that would be nice.

[MoreCurious]

He still faces possible tax-related charges, doesn't he? Isn't it worth it to him to be able get them out of the way so he and his lawyers only have to worry about making plea deals with state prosecutors? (Because, as I think we all realize, no one is ever going to imprison a former U.S. president for anything, except maybe murder.)

[StellaLink_the dog]

My understanding is that Trump's federal tax problems are civil in nature. A pardon won't fix that but he's not likely to go to jail over it. Perhaps there are criminal fedearl tax issues as well, don't know.

[bernard11]

There are almost certainly federal tax issues.

Among other things, he has an ongoing dispute with the IRS over a $70M tax refund, and he pretty clearly pulled some other shenanigans.

The thing is, it's not clear that any of it rises to the level of criminal tax evasion, though it could. But that does mean that a pardon does him no good, as he still has to cough up if the courts go against him.

[Brett Bellmore]

"Because, as I think we all realize, no one is ever going to imprison a former U.S. president for anything, except maybe murder."

I don't think we realize anything of the sort, after the last 4 years. I think they'd imprison Trump over an overdue library book if they could, just to be able to say he was the first President to go to prison.

[bernard11]

Yeah.

"They" were shouting "Lock him up" constantly.

[ah....Clem]

Of course you realize he difference:

Everything Trump says is basically bullshit, so he never had any intention of locking her up, he was just spewing crap to wind the crowd up.

In other words, all talk, no action.

By contrast, Cyrus Vance and Letitia James mean business.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

And they should prosecute Trump to the fullest extent of the law. People need to know not the step out of line and any skirting of the laws of the United States will be met with swift justice!

[MoreCurious]

Just out of curiosity, Brett, who are "they?" And where would they imprison him? And how many Secret Service agents would it take to keep him safe?

[MatthewSlyfield]

But if we allow 2020 to end, that's admitting that 2021.

[Alpheus W Drinkwater]

The year 2021 will be the first time we will be able to look back with 2020 hindsight.

[santamonica811]

Ha. Nice!!!

[MatthewSlyfield]

My prediction for the coming year, as always (and I haven't been wrong yet), is that the world will not end.

[Bored Lawyer]

And if you turn out to be wrong, then you will suffer no additional consequences. So that's a kind of heads I win, tails you lose prediciton.

[MatthewSlyfield]

But think of the bragging rights when I turn out to be right.

[Jimmy the Dane]

1. On January 20th the media discovers the already existing downturn in Covid cases (throughout most of the country) and magically declares victory is in sight.
2. Biden's "national mask mandate" whether actually imposed or just requested using the presidential bully pulpit, is widely acclaimed by the media as further smashing Covid numbers despite the fact that the vaccine will be well into the first stages of deployment and the increased number of cases means fewer people who can contract Covid again. Herd immunity won't be anywhere close to necessary percentages but will be, overall, getting there.
3. Actual Covid risk will remain throughout the Summer of 2021. Most business won't contemplate different operational levels until at least Q3 2021.
4. Flight out of the cities will continue as "defund the police" earlier in 2020 starts hitting local budgets. However we will probably see "counter-flight" occurring as literal low rent seekers see opportunities to live in areas that were simply unaffordable in 2019. Will the numbers even out?
5. The media starts to go broke in 2021. Major outlets have to make deep cuts now that their cash cow Trump is gone. Some will undoubtedly close up shop. The whole industry is going to have an identity crisis with a lot of "we should have done it different" regret op-ed style articles becoming all the rage.
6. If some sense of "normal" begins in Q4 of 2021, get ready for some fun times. We are going to see people out and about non-stop that Fall and during the holiday season. Should be a blast. Save your vacation days.
7. The general public won't get back to traveling until 2022. Vacation travel will recover sooner because many people are sitting on credits (instead of getting cash refunds) for canceled trips in 2020. They will want to use those sooner than people are willing to buy opportunities with cash. People looking for bargains are going to be out of luck. There won't be a "sweet spot" to travel when prices are low. Best you can do is buy your experience now, pre-pay, watch the cancellation/refund terms, and hope your bet in terms of timing is right.
8. 2021 is going to be a harder year for most than 2020. The degree to which "lockdown" policies had a devastating effect on mental health is going to become readily apparent when people are expected to be able to report to work and interact with others again. 2020 was the drunken rager. 2021 is going to be a long hangover.

[santamonica811]

Best prediction of last year?
Winner: Donald Trump. Oct 24: "Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.' By the way, on November 4, you won't hear about it anymore,"

Yup. Turned out to be absolutely true. Since the election, I can't remember anyone in the media even mentioning Covid or the pandemic. He nailed that one.

[KevinP]

The media settles in for a long nap for the next four years.

[Dr. Ed 2]

There are a lot of good young reporters in the new media.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Yeah, I see them every day on MSNBC.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

>MSNBC
Take your Metamucil, Boomer!

[StellaLink_the dog]

I do, every day.

[bernard11]

Trump will issue himself a pardon.

[StellaLink_the dog]

I think that Trump would like to find a way to avoid federal criminal liability -- his most obvious problem appears to me to be that SDNY has a slam dunk case lined up over the whole Stephanie Clifford fiasco.

I think his best path forward is to reach some sort of agreement with the Biden Justice Department, which probably doesn't relish a nasty legal fight with Trump and his lackies, and then reach agreement over state charges -- fines and no contest pleas which give him the ability to continue to lie about culpability, just as he continues to lie about culpability with respect to the justice department civil rights cases he settled back in the 70s and 80s.

Of course, what would remain if he were able to avoid criminal problems is the horde of hell hounds coming after him and his businesses. As has been often noted, Trump probably has some serious legal financial problems and then the financial problems resulting from 40 years of being a bad businessman.

[Bob from Ohio]

"SDNY has a slam dunk case "

Main Justice wil not approve any indictments against Trump.

The last thing Biden or the new AG will want is a Trump show trial. Sucking up the oxygen and sapping political capital for nothing.

Its a Resistance fantasy.

[StellaLink_the dog]

As I wrote, " the Biden Justice Department [] probably doesn’t relish a nasty legal fight with Trump and his lackies" But, if Trump doesn't wangle a pardon in some way, Trump should be made to make some concessions in order to secure an agreement from the AG and SDNY. No suggestion as to what concessions may be appropriate, but Trump shouldn't get something for nothing.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

Biden should dangle the prospect of a pardon in front of the Republicans, and demand a quid pro quo: the Republicans must earn a pardon for Trump, by persuading SCOTUS justices Samuel Alito, Stephen Breyer, and Long Dong Silver to resign, and approving whomever Biden nominates to replace them, the first of whom would be Pete Buttigieg. (Yes I know he's not a lawyer, but he's so smart that he could learn on the job. He's so smart that he likely would have been able to take the SAT at age ten and score perfectly in the math section, if he had been frivolous-minded enough to spend his time doing something as silly and pointless as that.....)

[Jimmy the Dane]

Although it is a liberal wet dream, part of the peaceful transition of power the Left likes to talk so much about is that we don't use the machinery of government to "get" the people who occupied positions of authority when the political tides change. This is why even though Clinton and Obama both could have had a lot coming there way, nothing did. I suspect Biden will keep up this tradition much to the dismay of the regressive side of the Left.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Can you name one thing that Bill Clinton might have faced criminal liability over? Likewise Obama?

[TwelveInchPianist]

"Can you name one thing that Bill Clinton might have faced criminal liability over?"

Lying to Ken Starr's grand jury.

[Jimmy the Dane]

Perjury and obstruction of justice. Clinton lost his law license because of it. There is almost no reason he should not have been prosecuted for that except he was a sitting president and we don't prosecute previous presidents.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Ok, yeah, Clinton did commit perjury and he did get disbarred in Arkansas and he could have been charged, I suppose.

[MoreCurious]

Too risky. Some U.S. Attorney somewhere will indict him notwithstanding the self-pardon. Eventually SCOTUS would have to get involved, and I doubt Trump trusts them anymore to do what he wants. Less risky to resign and let President Pence pardon him.

[NToJ]

The human condition will continue improving. Most of the people who comment here will continue insisting that the best days of humanity are behind us and that some new doom awaits us just around the bend. I'll copy and paste this when Professor Volokh asks the question at the end of 2021.

[Allutz]

Joe Biden is President.

He does not die in 2021.

Pretty much everything is boring, even the exciting things.

I build a robot suit and take over the 3 Midwest States starting with 'I' as my personal fiefdom. This also is boring.

[loki13]

"Pretty much everything is boring," yet people will yell at each other about it as if it were WW2.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

I hope some baka Boomer does something crazy and livestreams it on Facebook.

[Bob from Ohio]

Pain.

[Ridgeway]

Clubber Lang would be a good cybername.

[ThePublius]

1. The media goes very soft on Biden, and treat Biden and Harris as darlings, God's gift to America.
2. Facebook, Twitter, et.al. get worse as arms of the Democratic party and progressive causes.
3. The Dem party resumes its weaponization of federal agencies to hunt down those opposed to their progressive ambitions in general, and Trump supporters in particular.
4. Dems work to make permanent their "most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics." Vote by mail will become permanent, and signature verification and postmarks will be ignored. Dems will win key races in 2022 by massive ballot drops.
5. A few good books detailing the 2020 election fraud will be published. The mainstream media won't care, and will disparage them when it comes up.

[StellaLink_the dog]

Heaven.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

RE: "A few good books detailing the 2020 election fraud will be published."

Yes, and at least one of those books will win the Sidewise Award.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

Oops I meant that at least one of these books will win the Sidewise Award.

[Ridgeway]

Josh Hawley positions himself as the heir apparent to Trump/Republican Populism.

[Bob from Ohio]

Already trying, he is objecting to the Electoral Count next week.

[StellaLink_the dog]

A fool's errand. Can the house turn off the cameras for the two hours of debate (12 housrs total)? Rules have been established for these things in years past, but is it posible for new rules to be instituted, perhaps on the 5th?

[Josh R]

Is he anti-elitist enough to succeed? Rubio is trying as well with his "Fauci is a liar" editorial, but there is no way Rubio will succeed. Can anyone other than Trump?

[Bob from Ohio]

"Can anyone other than Trump?"

My bet would be on Governor DiSantis, if anyone.

[Josh R]

I doubt has the requisite charisma.

[Angry Herman]

Jan 20, 12:15 p.m. @realDonaldTrump twitter account suspended

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

>Twitter stock price falls 25% after massive user disengagement.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

OK, here's a prediction of something which could really happen in 2021, but we likely wouldn't learn that it had happened until maybe 2023 or 2024 or later. So let's say it may start to happen in 2021.

Virologists will very soon acquire the ability to do ordinary genetic-engineering manipulations (such as site-directed mutagenesis, gene-deletion, insertion of new genes, etc.) on COVID 19. (This is a little tricky because the virus, like other corona viruses, carries its genome in the form of a very long strand of RNA. But we are already able to do these manipulations on other corona viruses, and we're just about up and running on this one. See the reference at end of this post.) This will enable all kinds of studies of details of how the virus does what it does. Great! But, it also means that wealthy bad guys with kooky apocalyptic fantasies in countries where our government cannot monitor their bio-labs (imagine if Osama bin Laden were scientifically literate....), will be able to add nasty genes to coronaviral genomes. We will see attempts, maybe successful ones, to create variants of COVID 19 which, in addition to causing the ordinary symptoms of COVID 19, will also genetically program infected cells to produce the nasty proteins which the nasty added genes code for. These could include biological toxins which are proteins or peptides, and/or oncogenes to make the infected cells cancerous, and/or proteins which might be able to elicit autoimmune responses and cause autoimmune diseases like type-1 diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, or new autoimmune diseases which don't exist in nature. Or, sterility. There's no guarantee any of them will actually work-- the effect could be too limited, either by time the virus remains active in the body, or by natural limits on the size of the protein you want to add (ricin and botulinum toxin seem to be too large, thank god) or by some other issue, but it might well work with some nasty genes. Everyone remembers Frank Herbert's big best-seller Dune, which spawned the now-classic film and also a TV series, but how many people remember another of his books, The White Plague? Doing this without being detected would be much easier than making a nuclear bomb. The bad-guy wouldn't need to obtain highly-enriched uranium or plutonium or to run large ultracentrifuges for enriching uranium in house.

Here's the paper which announces that we are very close to being able to do ordinary genetic engineering on COVID 19.

Rapid reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 using a synthetic genomics platform. Nature 582, 561–565 (June 25, 2020).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2294-9

[SundanceInGlentucky]

1) Obama will be charged with murder for ordering the assassination of US Citizen.
2) The federal budget will be balanced through spending cuts.
3) Biden will appoint his cabinet based on their abilities and not based on race or sex.
4) The Supreme Court will decide the constitution's limit on federal powers actually means the federal government shouldn't be involved in most of what it currently does.
5) The people of the US will decide that freedom for me means freedom for you and demand thousands of nanny laws be rescinded.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

Any "good" stock picks? I'm looking to do a few shorts.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

RE: "I’m looking to do a few shorts."

Like Snow White, if she had been a prostitute.....

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

Had midget tossing been legalized in Louisiana again? I might need to visit New Orleans during Mardi Gras 2021.

[Intelligent Mr Toad]

Here's another prediction, not for 2021, but for some time before the next election (so, before November 2024).

No one will be surprised if Stephen Breyer retires or dies during the upcoming presidential term. He's in his early 80s. BUT, don't be surprised if Sonia Sotomayor has to retire or (god forbid) dies too! She has had type-1 diabetes since she was a single-digit-age child. A while back, I looked up the average lifespan of a female early-onset type-1 diabetic who has access to good health care and takes care of herself, and did the math, and by 2024 she will be very close to the 50% mortality age for that kind of patient.

[Jimmy the Dane]

I suspect all the liberal justices will "rotate out" especially if the Senate goes Dem either here in 2021 or in 2023. RBG's lasting legacy will be an example of how not to leave the court if you are a liberal.

[Rat on a train]

Ginsburg gambled on the symbolism with Clinton.

[TangoDelta]

If the Senate goes Dem I expect the liberal justices won't have to with their 9-5-1 majority.

[Rat on a train]

Welcome Sealab.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1Q8a2jmfMk

[Rat on a train]

It's time to declare Martian Law.

[Dr. Ed 2]

Cheap shipping will end.

Truck drivers are making less money now than they did 40 years ago, and it's only cheap Diesel fuel that has prevented the whole thing from imploding.

We have blue islands in a sea of red -- all of the stuff that the blue urban islands need either comes from the red ocean or has to cross it. There's already talk of a national trucker's strike in protest of the election, and the Green New Steal will definitely provoke one.

Our national distribution network is already breaking down -- there are major cracks that are visible if you know where to look -- and that's without people saying "bleep it" and giving up.

[Cal Cetín]

Global thermonuclear war, with the living envying the dead.

At least I haven't set myself up for disappointment.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

Komm, süsser Tod.

[Ruqt]

Two foreign government financed entities using an AI bot will track and trace this and every other website comments recording:
IP Address,
physical address,
a non-public psychiatric assessment profile tool,
and store same for future use at the appropriate time.

You have been warned, too late for many.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

"I was posting on a hebephilia / role-playing libertarian website, Officer."

[Ridgeway]

Events, dear boy, events

[Sarcastr0]

I'm game for a lot of stuff, but not yearly predictions.

Too much of a blank canvas; it's more of a mirror of the predictor. And as this shows, the mirror does not provide a pretty sight.

[ah....Clem]

Yeah, a lot of them read like a list of what they want Santa to bring them next year.

[Sarcastr0]

Except that so much of it is angry and destructive, not really Santa's bag at all.

[ah....Clem]

Agreed. Anthony Quinn Warner would have a lot of company here.

[Alpheus W Drinkwater]

Have you ever actually watched Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer? That guy was a total dick!

[John Rohan]

My prediction - due to the autopsy report, the police officers involved in the George Floyd death will be acquitted of most, if not all charges. And we will see another round of angry and violent demonstrations.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

Will the mobs be squashed by quick federal action from the Biden-Harris administration or will the "urban youths" burn down the rest of America?

[TangoDelta]

Brexit is a success and not much really changes. In Northern Ireland and Scotland new independence measures are put on ballot after Covid vaccines are ubiquitous and both win a solid majority and not much really changes.

Periods of light followed by periods of darkness. Northern hemisphere is cool for a period of time than warms only to cool again. Southern hemisphere experiences the opposite phenomenon. Inflation triples in second half of 2021 as Bitcoin surpasses Dow.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

Bitcoin hits $2,000 by mid-2021 is my prediction.

[TangoDelta]

LOL, given Bitcoin's volatility we can both be right.

[ah....Clem]

Not that I really think I'm going to be right about this, but here's a dozen:

1) Biden's first act on Jan 20 is to announce a "Marshall Plan" to ramp up production and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine to get everyone in the US vaccinated within six months or less.
2) The pandemic fades, but not before another couple hundred deaths, bringing the total up to about half a million in the US.
3) The economy recovers, perhaps slowly, or perhaps quickly as things return to "normal".
4) The stock market will... who the fuck knows what the stock market will do?
5) Biden will not die or resign and Harris will not become, or even try to become, president.
6) The Hunter Biden "scandals" will be like Whitewater without the blue dress - i.e. much huffing and puffing from the usual outlets but to no noticeable result.
7) Trump's neighbors at Mar a Largo will attempt through various suits to get him to leave, but won't have any success in 2021 if ever.
8) Trump pardons himself, and it never gets tested in court since Biden's DOJ don't want to go there.
9) Trump faces state indictments and civil suits up the yin-yang, hires better lawyers than Guiliani/Powell and draws everything out past Dec 31 2021.
10) About 20% of QAnon followers realize they've been had, that Trump isn't playing 5-dimensional chess, and that the Biden administration is here to stay. The other 80% will say Trump is actually playing 6-dimensional chess, that Biden in the white house is proof that things are going according to plan, and that Trump will seize power any day now.
11) Josh Blackman will continue to post way too many articles here, and the quality will not improve in 2021.
10) Something truly unforeseen happens, along the lines of 9-11, covid, Trump coming out of nowhere, etc. No idea what.

Ok, #11 is a gimme.

[RabbiHarveyWeinstein]

12) I get a QT3.1415 Jewish gf

[MoreCurious]

Other than being Jewish and cute, any other qualifications?

[TangoDelta]

Perhaps a love of circles?

[ah....Clem]

Correction:

2) The pandemic fades, but not before another couple hundred *thousand* deaths, bringing the total up to about half a million in the US.

[Commenter_XY]

Professor Volokh....My crystal ball is cloudy, at best. I have no idea about the economy, or covid, or much of anything else for that matter. I mean, just try predicting within 1%, where the S&P will end up next year. Odds are, maybe one VC Conspirator gets lucky.

But there is one thing I am very concerned about: Communist China will make a play for Taiwan in 2021. Every American should be extremely concerned at that prospect. Red China has been intensively drilling for over a year, in multiple littoral areas simultaneously. That is a very, very big deal. Their second aircraft carrier is now coming on line. The correlation of forces is very advantageous to China. They will act.

That is my prediction. There will be a hot war in the South China sea.

[Alpheus W Drinkwater]

I predict that Republicans in Congress will suddenly become very concerned with the federal deficit again.

[Alpheus W Drinkwater]

I also predict that when the Candidates tournament resumes, Fabi Caruana will win, and will go on to defeat Magnus Carlsen this time and become the new world champion.

[santamonica811]

Easiest prediction for 2021: Once Biden is president, Republicans in the Senate and House will suddenly remember just how critical it is for Congress to address the deficit and the debt, and that's why they'll be voting against all the Dem-proposed social programs, additional Covid relief, etc..

[santamonica811]

Shoot, Alpheus beat me to it. 🙁