Coronavirus

When It Comes to Coronavirus, Nobody Knows Anything

Reason's Ronald Bailey on flattening the curve without killing freedom.

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How many people are infected with the coronavirus, what will it mean for our hospitals, and how many will die?

Those are the questions at the front of everyone's mind. To get the best possible sense of things, Nick Gillespie talks with Reason's science correspondent, Ronald Bailey, about the constantly changing, often contradictory information coming from official channels.

They also discuss whether social distancing and nation-wide lockdowns have flattened the curve, how the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) continue to get in the way of solutions, the lessons we've already learned for future pandemics, and whether individual freedom will be a casualty of future public-health breakdowns.

Interview by Nick Gillespie. Edited by John Osterhoudt.

Photo credits: Nicolas Economou/ZUMA Press/Newscom; Richard Harbus / MEGA / Newscom; Ron Adar / M10s / MEGA / Newscom; CHINE NOUVELLE/SIPA/Newscom

'Snowmen' by Kai Engel is licensed under CC BY 4.0

NEXT: Deliberately Infect Healthy Young People To Test Coronavirus Vaccines, Propose Bioethicists

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  1. “When It Comes to Coronavirus, Nobody Knows Anything
    Reason’s Ronald Bailey”

    Lol

    1. When It Comes to Coronavirus, Nobody Knows Anything
      especially Reason’s “We have to test everyone “ Ronald Bailey”

      1. People are still peddling this hogwash about how testing everyone is the only way to stop the virus. Well, unfortunately, there is no way to stop it and there’s no way to test everyone. By the time you find out who is infected, they’ve already infected ten or more other people. Social distancing, quarantines, testing, etc. all presume there are isolated pockets of infected people that can be cordoned off and that the virus will simply disappear.

        The Wuhan Kung Flu has likely been running through people in major urban centers in the United States for months. There is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Crashing the economy to try to achieve the unachievable was possibly the worst choice that could have been made.

        1. Oh, Geraje Guzba, how can you be so coldly scientific and refuse to participate in the accepted “wisdom” of sequestering and cowering in fear?

          I just got back from my afternoon walk outside and it was glorious, with more folks than ever out walking and getting healthful recreation. I have a micro-brewery that will serve a beer (safely outside on their patio, naturally) to me and other venturing patrons where I will gather at 5 pm. Oh, how sweet will be the taste of the beer and the human interaction.

          1. Comrade Inslee put a stop to all that in my state. He is a massive idiot

        2. The counterargument to that which has been repeated is that the strategy is to slow down the growth to give hospital’s time to prepare, have the vaccine ready, and build herd immunity.

          The hospital argument is the best one as many have argued with good logic that if the hospital system becomes overwhelmed and collapses, more people will actually die from lack of emergency care being available then from the coronavirus itself.

          Now I am very wary of this strategy as the longer this goes on, the more things break down and become uncertain in general, and the greater the risk that the state continues to extend it’s power and then holds it, justifying the new economic crisis as the necessity for continued state control.

          But I don’t think the hospital argument is a bogus one. We are caught between the proverbial rock and hard place.

          1. Let me guess…. you get paid to post spam on comment sections of random websites?

          2. Death and destruction will get worse, reach catastrophic levels. BUT I DON’T CARE. WE CAN’T ALLOW THE STATE TO HAVE MORE CONTROL!”

            So, how are things at the Mises Institute?

    2. I am making a good salary from home $1200-$2500/week , which is amazing, under a year back I was jobless in a horrible economy. I thank God every day I was blessed with these instructions and now it’s my duty to pay it forward and share it with Everyone, Here is what I do. Follow details…… Read More  

      1. I make way more than that working from home for the past 2 weeks.

        I blame Gavin Newsom.

      2. Let me guess…. you get paid to post spam on comment sections of random websites?

    3. I’ve said this same thing at least twice in the past weeks here in the comments on Reason.

      Bailey owes me some copyright royalties. Or at least a public shout-out.

      Or in lieu of those, a promise to vote for Trump in 2020.

  2. Eggs must be broken, that there may be omelettes!

    Freedom must die, that the FDA may Live Long and Prosper!

    1. Right but you eat your own shit and lie about being pro death.

      1. Some people are smart and well-informed enough to talk politics.

        And some are benevolent and ethical enough to discuss morality.

        And some are so stupid and evil, ALL they know about, literally, is to talk shit! That is YOU, Tulpa-Satan-Mary-Mary’s Period “.”!

        1. Right but you eat your own shit and lie about being pro death.

        2. Hypothesis confirmed! Stupid and evil is, as stupid and evil does!

          1. Right drama llama but you eat your own shit and llie about being pro death

          2. Hey Tulpa read this! Fresh, hot off of the presses! It might help you! Really!

            https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/narcissism-demystified/202003/how-decode-narcissist-speak
            How To Decode Narcissist-Speak
            Uncovering the hidden intent in narcissists’ communication.

            Other people besides YOU, do actually exist! And SOME of them (expressly including yours truly) see you and your self-righteous bullshit, and are immune to it! FIX yourself, evil narcissist asshole!

            (You will actually feel better if you can put aside your evil and your stupid!)

            1. Right drama llama but you eat your own shit and llie about being pro death

              1. Well, aren’t you two just full of intellection insights?

                1. Ooops! Make that “intellectual” insights.

        3. I thought I replaced Tulpa as ‘most evil of all’. At least be consistent in your gibbering idiocy.

    2. Why are libertarians and conservatives so convinced that NOT enacting mass quarantines will somehow avert the economic impacts? Do you really think that having millions of people sick at once, with a much higher percentage of them dying than in other countries due to the much high loading on the health care system, won’t ALSO crash the economy? Hell, even disposing of all those bodies is going to cost an awful lot of money. Not to mention the fact that many of those who die will still be of working age, and will therefore need to be replaced. The fact that China went into lockdown right before the single most important holiday in their culture ought to give you at least an idea of how severe the alternative is, and it is not something to be brushed aside or taken lightly.

      I have identified as a libertarian and a conservative all my life. My experiences in the last three years, combined with the way in which you all are responding to this (with aggressive denial, wild conspiracy theories, and willful ignorance), has finally convinced me to abandon libertarianism and conservatism for good. I still believe very strongly in the importance of individual rights and free markets, but I no longer hold them to be absolute and of the highest moral values. The current situation has laid bare the gross limitations of this thought, and perhaps nothing will do so much damage to the Western political model than our failure to effectively deal with what amounts to a rather soft pandemic. Hell, I’m very thankful this ISN’T the flu. America would be gang raped if it was the 1918 pandemic again.

      I’m sure authoritarian states like Russia and China will waste little time in capitalizing on our ineptitude, though. For every country who has been on the fence (looking at you, Ukraine), the Coronavirus will serve as the strongest argument to NOT let your population have too much freedom and run wild. This will serve as the strongest argument to enact a powerful state that has no qualms about using a few jackboots to stamp out those voices they find to be… counterproductive. All they will have to do is point to the United States and say, “Yeah, but do you really want to end up like THEM?!?!”

      Perhaps you will all start singing a different tune when it’s you and your family drowning in your own bodily fluids, wondering why you can’t get a ventilator or why the nurse doesn’t seem to have time to deal with you right now. Perhaps you’ll want some sympathy, and cry to every passing stranger about how awful it all is, and how you can’t believe this is really happening.

      But there is nothing new under the sun, this story has been told before. We have all made our beds and now it is time to sleep in them. The Law of the Harvest does not care about our rationalizations and excuses. What is sown shall be reaped, and what has been will be again.

      1. And every country before us has gone through these discussions. Why can we not learn from those who have already been through it? “Well, surely we don’t need to shut down the economy. Surely this won’t be too bad…” said every single one of them, up until the point they realized that wasn’t going to work.

        I agree that there is a point of diminishing returns and there needs to be a cost/benefit analysis, but this dismissive horseshit is just wasting time and undermining any efforts that actually are being taken

        1. People are so used to thinking of everything as a dichotomy.

          How is it not possible for people to see that 1. Yes, the virus is a big deal and a serious problem.

          2. The lockdowns which may be effective at dealing with the problem come with their own set of problems, particularly as this is a massive worldwide experiment that’s never been tried before.

          3. One can acknowledge that lockdowns and such might be necessary to prevent problems with and related to the pandemic, but also raise concerns about the long term consequences and the poor history of states with giving up power they have assumed during crisises, particularly as there is no clear timeline as to when the crisis will end, and the lockdowns themselves will create a second predictable crisis that states can use to justify not giving up it’s emergency powers.

      2. The only GOOD thing about the virus is that it will relieve the pressure on the social security fund….

        That, and it has done more to stop mass shootings than any gun control law ever could.

      3. Why are libertarians and conservatives so convinced that NOT enacting mass quarantines will somehow avert the economic impacts? Do you really think that having millions of people sick at once, with a much higher percentage of them dying than in other countries due to the much high loading on the health care system, won’t ALSO crash the economy?

        You make the typical error of progressives: you assume that if government doesn’t do something then it doesn’t get done. In fact, it would be perfectly fine for government to put out statistics and warnings and let individuals and companies make their own choices.

        And the game matrix simply doesn’t work out for this. Government chose actions to guard against an unlikely worst case, where the economy would be destroyed with our without government action. But in the far more likely case that COVID-19 is no worse than a bad flu season, the choice the government made is enormously bad.

        Perhaps you will all start singing a different tune when it’s you and your family drowning in your own bodily fluids, wondering why you can’t get a ventilator or why the nurse doesn’t seem to have time to deal with you right now.

        If that’s what you are worried about, you can stay at home and self-isolate in your underground bunker for the next decade, along with all the other crazies. The rest of us have lives to live, and we recognize that earning a living and interacting with people entails risks.

        I have identified as a libertarian and a conservative all my life.

        But objectively speaking, you’re neither. You’re an evil prick who wants to deal with his fears by destroying other people’s lives for no rational reason.

        1. I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess that “ I have identified as a libertarian and a conservative all my life.” is total bullshit.

          1. Why lie? That would like boasting he has been a pedophile and a scam artist targeting the elderly all his life.

            1. Rev. Arthur L. Kirkland
              March.28.2020 at 9:40 am
              “Why lie?…”

              Same reason you claim to be a sentient human being, asshole bigot.

              1. Now, now. I think Arty speaks from experience here. He is likely to be both a pederast and a dim witted buffoonish failure of a conman.

            2. Lol, a member of the clergy, using a pedophilia themed simile to makes his stupid point. Dr. Pizza we know it’s you.

        2. Can you give an objective definition of libertarian or conservative?

          1. Try sextreffen hessen right place for sexy chat, leave politic by side…

          2. Can you give an objective definition of libertarian or conservative?

            We’ve been doing that for over 50 years. within this,

            Liberals want government out of your bedroom and into your wallet
            Conservatives want government out of your wallet and into your bedroom.
            Libertarians want government out of both fiscal and personal matters. Hence, fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

        3. NOYB2, thanks for your rational thoughts. Most folks are only looking at the medical threat and totally ignoring the results of a recession or (and ever more likely) a depression.

          1. Most folks are only looking at the medical threat and totally ignoring the results of a recession or (and ever more likely) a depression.

            That’s because they could be infected and die.

            https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-poll-idUSKBN21E3FQ?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner

            81% said the country should continue social distancing initiatives, including “shelter at home” orders, “despite the impact to the economy.”

            Only 19% said they would like to end social distancing as soon as possible “to get the economy going again,” including 11% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans.

            64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
            51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
            46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.
            Only 31% are “very likely” to follow President Trump’s recommendations and advice

        4. COVID-19 is no worse than a bad flu season

          Ha! 525 deaths on Saturday March 28. Likely 1,000+ per day by next week.

          That ain’t any bad flu season.

      4. Yes I do think that because the people dying are 80.

        1. 35% of them are under 65.
          Plus, on average, every one of them infects 2.5 others

          1. Your citations fell off.

            1. Educated, decent people should not perform basic research for slack-jawed malcontents. Otherwise, how are the disaffected clingers ever to learn anything?

              1. “Educated, decent people should not perform basic research for slack-jawed malcontents.”

                So neither you nor that piece of shit Hihn get any assistance.

              2. So you have no citations, got it.

              3. This from the same hicklib who claimed no one promoted world government after World War 2, then when shown that he was wrong, had no answer.

              4. No , but they should shut down their livelihoods while giving them no choice in the matter. That’ll show em!

                Haha. You’re useless, old man.

              5. “Malcontents”? Ok, boomer. Haha.

                Isn’t that what they called you during Vietnam?

      5. Millions of people won’t be sick at once. If they are, most of them will have mild or manageable symptoms.

        The travel and entertainment and restaurant industries were already struggling with greatly decreased business, no need to make other industries join them.

        1. Can you give an objective definition of libertarian or conservative?
          Even Trump finally rejects your denial. For a while.

  3. I wouldn’t say “nobody knows anything.” After all, we Koch / Reason libertarians know something: unlimited, unrestricted immigration is the best response to the #TrumpVirus.

    Oh, and we also know Italy got hit so hard because its borders were too closed. Apparently there’s no Italian equivalent of Charles Koch funding open borders advocacy in that country.

    #OpenBorders
    #(EspeciallyDuringAPandemic)

  4. 81% said the country should continue social distancing initiatives, including “shelter at home” orders, “despite the impact to the economy.” This includes 89% of Democrats and 70% of Republicans.

    REUTERS: The March 26-27 opinion poll, released Friday, also showed that the public is much more likely to heed the advice of doctors and local government officials than President Donald Trump.

    66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
    64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
    51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
    46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.
    Only 31% are “very likely” to follow President Trump’s recommendations and advice

    The president took a hardline approach earlier this month when he urged people to gather only in small groups. Later he appeared to change course, telling reporters that he would like businesses to reopen by Easter, on April 12.

    The poll showed that most Americans do not want that.

    Only 19% said they would like to end social distancing as soon as possible “to get the economy going again,” including 11% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans.

    a href=”https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-poll-idUSKBN21E3FQ?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner”

    Trump has now boxed himself into a corner, with no way out. He loses WHATEVER he does by Easter. Loses BIGLY

      1. Hi SQRLSY

      2. Oh, goody! Hihn gives us a poll!
        Is that the same poll that predicted the hag was gonna win, shitstain?

        1. Oh, goody! Hihn gives us a poll!
          Is that the same poll that predicted the hag was gonna win, shitstain?

          1) SHE WON THE POPULAR VOTE BY OVER 4 MILLION, WHICH IS ALL THEY CAN POLL. DUH.

          2) ALMOST 10 MILLION VOTED AGAINST TRUMP

          3) TRUMP GOT A RECORD NUMBER OF “ANTI” VOTES (voted against Hillary, not FOR Trump.)

          4) Trump won the Electoral Vote by the MASSIVE margin of ,…. 39,000 voters, in three states combined. … HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DID RUSSIA, WIKILEAKS AND COMEY NEED, TO FLIP 0.03% OF THE VOTE?

          *snort*

          1. LOL, Dumbfuck Hihnsano screeching about being a loser again.

            1. Look again. The issue is polling

              1) SHE WON THE POPULAR VOTE BY OVER 4 MILLION, WHICH IS ALL THEY CAN POLL. DUH.

              Now, You can either admit Sevo was full of shit, or state that Hillary lost the popular vote. DUH

              (I voted for Gary Johnson, of course, not Hillary)

              1. We don’t have a ‘popular vote’ for president.

                We never have.

                The polls that predicted a Clinton victory were counting something that is not counted in the election. Had they counted correctly, things may have turned out different.

                But they didn’t.

                Bizarrely, they still aren’t.

                1. We don’t have a ‘popular vote’ for president.

                  That’s just silly.
                  It does not elect the President.

                  The polls that predicted a Clinton victory were counting something that is not counted in the election.

                  They only poll the popular vote. Your just pissed because Sevo is full of shit, again, and now you, again.

          2. “*snort*”

            That wouldn’t be a symptom of COVID-19 your Depends are leaking on the keyboard, Would it, Hihntard?

            1. YOU SAY HILLARY LOST THE POPULAR VOTE!!!
              *snort*

          3. You do realize that the “popular vote” 1) doesn’t exist, and 2) Uh, doesn’t exist?

            1. Ummm, the issue is POLLING. What do you “think” the pollsters measure? (LOL)

              MUST be a Trumptard. He lost the popular vote, so … waves arms …. IT DOESN’T EXIST!

              ***EVEN FOX IS LAUGHING AT YOU!

              FOX: Popular vote finalized in presidential election


              “More Americans voted for Hillary Clinton than any other losing presidential candidate in US history.”ABCNEWS: Hillary Clinton Officially Wins Popular Vote by Nearly 2.9 million votes.

              TIME: “Hillary Clinton’s Final Popular Vote Lead Is 2.8 Million votes”

              ***INDEPENDENT: DONALD TRUMP HAS LOST POPULAR VOTE BY GREATER MARGIN THAN ANY US PRESIDENT
              President-elect is now 2.8 million votes behind Hillary Clinton – five times more than the second biggest deficit

              STOP SNEERING! The pollsters were CORRECT. Get a grip.

    1. You gonna kill yourself if he wins reelection?

      1. He will, but not with a deadly, military-style assault weapon. We all know how he feels about them.

        1. By licking a doorknob?

        2. Unicorn confuses me with Antonin Scalia.

          1. Yeah.

            We all thought/hoped someone at the Home had put a pillow on your face by now.

      2. Just not enough cranky, old, superstitious, half-educated, roundly bigoted, easily frightened, economically inadequate, stale-thinking, rural, southern white males left in America to position Trump for another longshot at the Electoral College.

        Trump was the disaffected clingers’ last gasp. The problem with the ‘last gasp’ approach becomes apparent just before the end.

        1. You and she lost asshole bigot; grow up and get over it.
          And it’s looking like you’ll get Trump jammed down your throat once more

        2. Hahahah Trump is winning and you’re butthurt again hahaahahahaja

          “cranky, old, superstitious, half-educated, roundly bigoted, easily frightened, economically inadequate, stale-thinking, rural, southern white males’

          AAHAHAHAH HE ONLY GETS VERBOSE WHEN HE KNOWS HE LOST HAHAHAHAAH

          1. $parcasmic, a love connection
            Hahahah Trump is winning and you’re butthurt again hahaahahahaja

            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

            If Trump is winning, why was he forced into total capitulation yesterday … again?
            Did you also believe it’s all a Democrat hoax that will just go away magically?

            Still laughing?
            *sneer*

        3. That “last gasp” is going to be the Pennsylvania hicklib choking for his last breath of air before coronacoofs finishes him off.

        4. But enough of them left to put a bullet in your face the first chance they get …

        5. Yup. Those “southern white males” made a huge difference in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

          Lots of cliche adjectives, tho. Good job, old man. You’re really picking up your game.

          Don’t change a thing. Haha.

          1. Yup. Those “southern white males” made a huge difference

            Yup, his HUGE margin of 39,000 voters, in three states combined!
            How much influence did Russia, Wikileaks and Comey NEED, to swing 0.03% of the vote?

    2. 66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
      64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,

      Fuckin’ superstitious sheep.

      1. But they vote.

    3. The USA has become a nation of snowflakes, trembling in place in their homes because they might catch a new cold, even though there’s a new cold or flu every few years. Two weeks out of work and suddenly people want universal income.

      The idea of the stay at home orders was to flatten the curve on the virus spread, so the previously woefully unprepared hospitals could load up on ventilators and protective gear and intensive care beds, not to keep people locked up for a year or so until a vaccine is available. After 3 weeks, the orders should be lifted so we don’t add an economic depression to a public health crisis.

      Trump is a buffoon, but he’s right about getting people back to work as soon as possible. I guess I’m not surprised my countrymen are acting like sheep — it’s their standard response to a crisis: someone lead me, somewhere!

      1. This exactly.

        So far, businesses have been mostly non-functional for 2.5 weeks. We have that in place until AT LEAST another 3 weeks. There’s already talk of extending that until May.

        If we shut down for more than a month, we’re staring depression in the face, and it’s gonna get real ugly. Better make sure your firearms are in good working order.

        1. If we shut down for more than a month, we’re staring depression in the face, and it’s gonna get real ugly.

          TRUMP HAS SET UP A DEPRESSION?
          (April 30 – March 13 = One month plus 18 days)

          Better make sure your firearms are in good working order.

          So you can be armed, while dying in a blaze of gunfire?

          And they VOTE! 🙁

  5. Yawn. I would like businesses to reopen tomorrow, but I haven’t taken any steps nor given any commands towards that wish, nor has POTUS.
    But you know that. You’re just being a tiresome, dumbass, troll.

  6. So, who says we don’t know anything. We know a lot, and we know more everyday, especially now that tests are finally being administered. Also, for weeks now, we’ve had the data from the Diamond Princess, where over 7000 people were quarantined in a contained environment with each other. Out of those 7k (mostly elderly) passengers, 700 of them actually caught the Wuflu, and seven (7) died.

    1. Oops. There was not 7k passengers on the Diamond Princess: there were 3711.

      1. Bigger oops
        700/3711 = 19% infection rate.
        19% of US population = 63 million infections

        And asshole Trump refused to allow them to leave the ship for secure quarantine.

  7. I am making a good salary from home $1200-$2500/week , which is amazing, under a year back I was jobless in a horrible economy. I thank God every day I was blessed with these instructions and now it’s my duty to pay it forward and share it with Everyone, Here is what I do. Follow details…… Read More  

  8. “You can call it a germ, you can call it a flu, you can call it a virus, you know you can call it many different names. I’m not sure anybody even knows what it is.”

    Donald Trump.

    He does OK in the first minute of scripted speech. Then he keeps talking.

  9. I know something. I know that the US Census has postponed all field operations to collect Census information.

    1. What makes this funny is evidently millions of Americans have traveled from Blue state to Red states in the last 3 weeks.

      As per my Census form, anyone in your household as of April 1 can be counted in your location and not counted in in a Blue state.

      Blue states were going to give numerous House seats to Red states but this might be a bloodbath against Blue states.

      1. other than the legal requirement and threat of penalty, and perhaps a personal moral code to tell the truth, why would red voters in blue states (or blue voters in red states) even acknowledge that they live there? It’s only giving more Congressmen and Electoral votes to your enemies. Family? Spouse? Kids? Nope, just me.

        1. He’s always fomenting hysteria. Delusions of a vast left-wing conspiracy, Several of them!
          Dire threats to all of earth’s humanity.

      2. ANOTHER CRAZED CONSPIRACY!!
        THE DIABOLICAL LEFTYS ARE AT IT AGAIN!

        evidently

        *snort*

        millions of Americans have traveled from Blue state to Red states in the last 3 weeks.

        WHY? 🙂

        Now the ABSOLUTE craziest part!!!

        As per my Census form, anyone in your household as of April 1 can be counted in your location and not counted in in a Blue state.

        READ THE FUCKING CONSTITUTION YOU CLAIM TO LOVE

        The Census Bureau’s enumeration procedures are guided by the constitutional and statutory mandates to count all residents of the several states. [U.S. Const. Art. 1, Section 2, cl.3, Title 13, United States Code, Section 141.]

        The state in which a person resides and the specific location within that state is determined in accordance with the concept of “usual residence,” which is defined by the Census Bureau as the place where a person lives and sleeps most of the time.

        If I’m vacationing iN Hawaii … LC1789 SAYS I’M A RESIDENT OF HAWAII!

        WHAT IF I LIVE IN ONE STATE, BUT WORK IN ANOTHER?? *smirk*

  10. Totalitarianism caused this problem I doubt it’s going to be the solution.

    1. “Totalitarianism caused this problem I doubt it’s going to be the solution.”

      Totalitarianism is
      *AHEM*
      The Final Solution.

    2. As Ron Paul said, the solution to a financial crisis created by too much debt is never more debt.

      1. Or as Ross Perot said, when find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

    3. If totalitarianism caused the coronavirus, did it also cause cancer?
      HIV? Blindness?

  11. This is a huge epidemic, to avoid it, we have to stay away from people and if any person gets suffering from this, then we should inform the government immediately.

    if you like lyrics please visit https://lyricszone.in

    1. yeah, snitch on your neighbors. if you see something, say something. Are they enjoying life? We can’t have that. They want to get out of the crowded city and go someplace with fewer people? Crack down on them.

        1. Freedom means allowing other people to control your movements?

  12. We don’t even know what we don’t know.
    But we do know this:
    Governments are lying about it
    “the press” is lying about it
    The lockdown will cause more damage, including death, than the virus
    It started in Communist China
    Politicians, especially democrat politicians, are using it for purely political gain, disregarding their actual responsibilities to their constituents
    It will pass, just like all the others

    1. Yup. Fight the media hysteria and lies.

      Go back to work and tell government to fuck off. My area is already about what they are doing this weekend. Birthday parties, outdoor activities, and shopping.

      1. Do you mean I shouldn’t hide indoors? Do you mean I shouldn’t give up about six months of my life hiding in fear in front of my TV? You are so fucking wild and crazy! I love it; I’m going to my bar where they’re serving beer out on the patio! YIPEE!

        1. New jersey, new york, rhode island, california, illinois, and now Florida have just gone full anticonstitution and started state line check points, tracking out of state travelers, and arresting people for gathering.

          I thought the hysteria would die down but clearly government types and old people who think they run things are freaking out. It might just implode and we woodchip all these fucking state government tyrants.

  13. Bullshit!

    The Chinese virologists who developed it with millions in US defence grants and released it upon the world know everything about it.

    Governments, big pharma and media ignoring the proof that the cheap and available drug chloroquine know it’s effective at preventing and curing the disease.

    The financial cult know that fear and panic will result in another Great Depression transferring most wealth to the 1%.

    What else is there to know?

    1. “What else is there to know?”

      You’re a scumbag bigot with a room-temp IQ and now we learn you’re a tin-foil-hat conspiracy idiot, besides.
      Now we want to know if you were the other guy on the grassy knoll.

      1. And today at four o’clock, he’ll make them all two feet tall!

    2. the problem is we don’t even need it to be a global conspiracy, idiot governors are gonna idiot, because people demand that they “do something”

      1. Idiots and lies go together like chocolate and peanut butter.

        Propaganda requires making an issue emotional, then the facts don’t matter.

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  15. Remember, the President issued his 15-day lockdown on …. MARCH SIXTEENTH … 12 freaking days ago … well over a month too late.

    Do the math.
    Each covid carrier infects over 2 more, on average.
    2 becomes 4 … 4 becomes 8 … 8 becomes 16 … etc … accelerating, for well over a month

    Safe to say the President’s inaction allowed at least 2/3 of all current infections AND DEATHS … while he was saying … “it’s a Democrat hoax” .. “will just go away magically” … and way back when we had only 10, he said we’d be near zero in a few days. We’re approaching 1500,.

    Calculate the margin of error.
    Predicted 1.
    Actual 1500 (in a single month)
    1499/1 = 149,900%

    But, NOW he says he always knew it is a pandemic.
    Just as he knows spinning turbines cause cancer. (smirk)

    1. Dumbfuck Hihnsano is nervous because he knows coronacoofs will choke him to death.

    2. the World Health Organization wasn’t even calling it a pandemic before that, if you recall. the genie was out of the bottle long ago, with Chinese tourists and businessmen traveling to California, Italy, Iran, New York, etc. The case count is zooming up now because they’re finally testing people in large numbers. And a 2 or 3 week lockdown should be plenty long to flatten the curve. Let people go back to work.

      1. You seem to misunderstand, along with many others, what “flatten the curve” means. It means instead of a situation with a huge growth and spike in deaths, and then a fast decline, the situation is drawn out untill hospitals are ready, a vaccine becomes available, and herd immunity develops. “Flatten the Curve” as a strategy always implied an extended effort.

        1. WRONG. It does NOT spread out those who would be infected … a convenient excuse for Trump’s liability.

          And rather silly. My uncle did not get infected in March, but that means he’s certain to be infected in May ot June, perhaps later

          Flattening the curve shows that people will NEVER be infected, who would have otherwise become infected, some dying, mostly from Trump’s REFUSAL to accept a crisis, until 17 days ago.

        2. Uh, by shuttering ourselves away, we’re doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of gaining herd immunity.

          1. Uhhh, herd immunity (without vaccine) requires 60-80% of Americans to be infected. So YOU demand 40-60 MILLION DEATHS .., for your personal convenience. SHAME ON YOU.

            Strict preventive measures can reduce that as low as 100,000, per YOUR President.

            WHO ON EARTH HAS THE RIGHT TO DETERMINE THE LIFE OR DEATH OF 40-60 MILLION PEOPLE?
            ***WE HAVEN’T SEEN YOUR ILK SINCE DACHAU.

            How much less severe would the crisis be, if YOUR President had not REFUSED to assume leadership until … SEVENTEEN DAYS AGO? (“Democrat hoax,” that will just “go away” magically. Way back when we had only 15 known cases, “It will be down, close to zero, in just a few days”, instead … 163,000 cases and 3,146 deaths … total deaths DOUBLED in two days ,… now TRIPLED in four days! 2/3 of which caused by Trump.)

            It’s TRUMP who foreclosed our options.

  16. Bailey displays that true mark of intelligence – the ready admission of what he / we do not know and the determination to learn it.

    1. you must have a liberal arts degree like him…

      1. More like a high school diploma, in woodshop.

  17. Oh to be a science expert at Reason with a Philosophy degree..

    I have nothing personal against Mr. Bailey but unless you are on the other side of the “science” fence you are always lookin in. I spent some time after I earned my degree in Chemistry (minored in Physics) in a govt research lab. Scientists are like everyone else..they go where the money is. If a politician thinks “X” is a problem..many will agree and modify their grant requests to get the money. Interferon? Star Wars/SDI? Stem Cell? Climate Change?

    Contagious diseases are best contained by…wait for it…yes quarantine and good sanitation. Where don’t you have this…large urban cities and from globalism. Gov panic screwed up big time and should have quarantined NYC area two weeks ago. All the wealthy NY City wokes who flew down to south FLA should be forced into quarantine and their assets taken away to pay for the poor people in FLA they infected…I’m a libertarian and the non aggression principal applies..you don’t self quarantine then I have the right to protect myself from you using the one institution that is supposed to project my life and liberty..govt. Build a big wall around NYC and all the cosmo urban places Reason likes and don’t let anyone in or out for a few months. Except for Snake Pliskin of course.

    1. I’m a libertarian, you say, but then say you want to take peoples’ money and liberty. Don’t they get a trial first?

      1. WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH

        CLAIMS to be libertarian. Has NO CLUE what NAP means.
        Likely a Paulite authoritarian, based on most of his comments on the page.

    2. Titus PUllo
      March.28.2020 at 3:43 pm
      “…Oh to be a science expert at Reason with a Philosophy degree…”
      Oh, to be a smug piece of credentialed shit.

      “…I’m a libertarian and the non aggression principal applies…”
      You are either a liar or an idiot too stupid to know what you post.
      Fuck off, slaver

    3. Titus is telling the truth about the best way to stop the spread of a contagious disease. It would be best if we could do this voluntarily, but you saw the packed bars and beaches in FL, so it’s obvious Americans are too irresponsible to do so. I would have preferred tight guidelines – bars, restaurants should keep at more than 100 sq ft per patron, and cat ahead seating to avoid lines – to the edicts. But people think the guidelines are for others, not for them. So forced closures are what we get.

      525 deaths on Saturday March 28.

      Just the flu?

  18. Libertarians, so far as I know, have not held against a role for government in natural disaster including public health and pandemics, or unavoidable wars.

    1. Bingo..smatest post on this site today

    2. Some have. I can think of 2.3 trillion reasons why the government should stay out of the way of responding to pandemics.

      1. There is that. Economics is not my area. I am having a hard time just keeping up with what is being published in the medical science area where I have some background.

        One thing is it has given me the opportunity to do some education in cell biology and other areas where I am rusty.

        My biggest concern with this spending bill is it is just pissing in the wind. Trillions in fake money.

      2. I can think of 2.3 trillion reasons why the government should stay out of the way of responding to pandemics.

        And they’d all involve the same two blunders.
        1) That protecting human life is NOT a function of government,
        2) That there is some God-Given Right to go around infecting and killing innocent people. Google the Non-Aggression Principle.

  19. SACRIFICE

    Will there be a baseball game?
    Or a football team at that?
    Will there ere be a boxing bout?
    Or tumbling on a mat?

    Will there still be a springtime?
    Or a summertime at last?
    Or better yet can we still bet,
    On 4 July a blast?

    Or shall we all just disappear?
    Secluded one by one?
    With little cheer, without a beer?
    The death of human fun!

    And won’t we all feel justified?
    Noble, pure, and “swell”?
    We killed Coronaviruses,
    But bored ourselves to hell!

    John Brunt Baker
    Friday, March 27, 2020
    We’re reduced to standing outside in the cold, on the deck at my micro-brewery. It would just be too, too dangerous to go inside and stand abreast at the bar, casually drinking a favorite beer while our fellow humans breath the same air!

    1. Nice. I like it.

      Needs a music base. I am thinking hard rock. Straight up 4/4 overdriven guitar, big Pearl drums.

      Is Slayer still around?

  20. Andrew McCarthy tries to sort this out over here:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus-fatality-rate-computing-difficult/#slide-1
    “To summarize, we have (a) people who get COVID-19 and have reported; (b) people who get the SARS-CoV-2 virus and have reported, and who may not necessarily develop COVID-19 (although they are counted as if they have done so); (c) people who report because they fear they have the virus, but who test negative (so we assume they have not had the virus); (d) people who have the virus but do not report (meaning we can only estimate how many such people there are); and (e) people who have other conditions that could be mistaken for the virus and who do not report (meaning that counting them would skew our already uncertain estimate of virus cases that have gone unreported).”
    Worth a read. Best explanation I’ve read so far.

  21. Coronavirus death rate skyrockets, total US deaths double in only 2 days

    It took 27 days to reach 1,000 deaths. (Feb 29 – Mar 26)
    The next thousand deaths, TWO days (Mar 27 – 28)
    And that’s with the President’s lockdown. How much worse if the current lockdown ends, or is weakened?

    Each infected person infects 2.5 others. So we now have 2,000, who will infect 5,000, for a total of 7,000 deaths. How long will that take? Depends.

    The PACE of increased deaths depends almost solely on human contact, which is why every country recommends social distancing … enforced by police, in a growing number of countries.

    81% of Americans want social distancing to continue, including “shelter at home” orders, despite “the impact to the economy.’ Why? Because they could be infected and risk death.

    Coronavirus can be a “silent killer.” New infections show no symptoms at all, for 5-14 days. Then, many still have no symptoms, or very mild symptoms.

    As of now
    124,385 confirmed cases (20,205 today)
    2,211 deaths (505 today)
    3,231 recoveries (844 today)
    All per CDC daily tracking
    (Recovery pace will always lag, because of the time in treatment)

      1. Keep waving that PANIC!!! flag, you pathetic piece of shit. Chicken little couldn’t do better.

        1. Says the same thing. (lol)

    1. “…The PACE of increased deaths depends almost solely on human contact, which is why every country recommends social distancing … enforced by police, in a growing number of countries…”

      And Hihn creams his pants at the thought of cops measuring the distance between people and arresting some for being 2″ too close!
      Fuck off and die, lefty shitbag.

    2. I *AM* glad that you have not repeated your lie about this being 25x more deadly than the flu, though I assume that’s coming soon since you appear to be some kind of low-mid functioning retard.

      1. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-poll-idUSKBN21E3FQ?utm_source=34553&utm_medium=partner

        REUTERS: The March 26-27 opinion poll, released Friday, also showed that the public is much more likely to heed the advice of doctors and local government officials than President Donald Trump.

        81% said the country should continue social distancing initiatives, including “shelter at home” orders, “despite the impact to the economy.”

        Only 19% said they would like to end social distancing as soon as possible “to get the economy going again,” including 11% of Democrats and 30% of Republicans.

        66% said they would follow the instructions of medical doctors
        64% said they would follow the advice of the CDC,
        51% said they would follow the advice from their state’s governor
        46% would follow healthcare directions from local police.
        ***Only 31% are “very likely” to follow President Trump’s recommendations and advice

        Trump has now boxed himself into a corner, with no way out. He loses WHATEVER he does by Easter … loses BIGLY.

        Just in: In Trump’s latest flip-flop to medical exports. He’s NOW not likely to re-open the country by easter. He’s NOW considering stricter> measures.

        As of Saturday, total US deaths doubled in just two days … with Trump’s current 15-day recommendation. “!5 days are not enough” for many parts of the country. (duh)

        Critical state governors refuse his recommendations, and he is powerless against them. So, by staying tough there, or going even tougher, he looks in charge to his base, and will likely say he is. But it’s the governors, health professionals and scientists who ultimately prevail (thank God). While he bellows and flip-flops almost daily,

        Lifting his (mild) restrictions would see tens of millions more people in close proximity … and OBVIOUSLY a massive increase in deaths, as the entire world moves toward stricter standards, along with several of our governors

  22. Covid-19 doubling cycle for the month of March:

    03 MAR
    12 deaths

    09 MAR
    Needed to double – 24
    Actual: 27 (6 days)

    13 MAR
    Needed to double: 48
    Actual 50 (4 days)

    17 MAR
    Needed to double: 96
    Actual: 110 (4 days)

    19 MAR
    Needed to double: 192
    Actual 207 (2days)

    22 MAR
    Needed to double: 384
    Actual 414 (3 days)

    24 MAR
    Needed to double: 768
    Actual 778 (2 days)

    27 MAR
    Needed to double: 1,536
    Actual 1,696 (3 days)

    28 MAR
    Needed to double: 3,072
    Actual 2,227 (on track to double in 3 days)

    Raw data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/¸

    1. Exactly!

      Those who say the death rate is only about 1% need to take into account that death trails infection by 10 days or more. So the death rate should be calculated on the number of cases from a date 10 days prior. We had 525 new deaths on the 28th, and 2,853 new cases on the 18th. So the death rate COULD be almost 25%, although the number of cases is certainly undercounted due to few tests.

      Just the flu?

      1. If you’re going to play numbers, play numbers.

        From point of infection incubation can take 7-21 days before symptoms appear. Once symptoms appear it can take 2-10 days before it becomes severe.

        It’s at that point that your ten day clock starts to tick. That’s a max possible of 41 days. And a minimum of 19.

        So the people who die on any given day could have contracted the illness at any point 41- to 19 days prior.

        Which is why deaths aren’t measured the way you suggest.

        1. From point of infection incubation can take 7-21 days before symptoms appear.

          5-14.
          And since you blew that so badly, you’ll need a source for the rest.

          Which is why deaths aren’t measured the way you suggest.

          Diversion.

    2. Yep. Minor disease with a super low death rate compared to seasonal Flu/Colds.

      1. Trump’s flu bullshit just EXPLODED on the puss of Jerry Falwell Jr.
        Like you, he repeats Trump’s line, calls it a flu, says any restrictions are a plot to undermine President Trump.

        So, he brazenly defied conventional wisdom and opened Liberty University. A week later SIX students showed the symptoms of coronavirus. Tests are not in yet. But we have another week of possible infections.

        ****AND YOU’RE COMPARING A YEAR OF SEASONAL FLU WITH THE MONTHS OF CORONAVIRUS … WHERE THE RATE OF NEW INFECTIONS IS STILL ESCALATING.

        The first thousand deaths took 26 days.
        The next thousand took TWO days.
        That’s from 35 per day to 500 per day.
        It won’t double every 2 says for 9 months, and …
        NOBODY can predict the full year, which means you have no clue what your talking about, by definition, and FAILED to address my FACTS in your non-response to them.

        Please consider placing thousands of human lives above tribal partisan politics.

        Anything else?

    3. CDC says 1668
      John’s Hopkins says 1898.

      1. CDC says 1668

        The link YOU posted says 2112.
        1) If you’d READ the page, that’s of 4PM yesterday.

        2) If you’d READ the page, that’ an estimate which will be revised Monday

        Numbers updated Saturday and Sunday are not confirmed by state and territorial health departments. These numbers will be modified when numbers are updated on Monday.

        And since you blew that so massively

        John’s Hopkins says 1898.

        Their last update was March 10th.
        https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/84698

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  24. Last week, at around the time when we’d tested about a quarter of a million people a number was talked about.

    The number of those people who tested positive.

    It was about 10% of the total.

    This week that number came up again, not as a topic of conversation, but as one of the ‘given’ facts about the disease.

    It’s still at about 10%. If you dig, you can find rates as high as 15%–and as low as 7%.

    All still well within the window.

    What window, you say?

    Why the one that lets us know that, at any given time, the percentage of people on the planet who have a coronavirus based cold is….wait for it….about 10%.

    Yeah.

    1. That’s only 134 MILLION dead. “Yeah,”he says.
      Or as high as 201 million dead, “Peanuts,” he sneers

      In the US, a mere 660,000 dead. “Nuthin'” he says.
      Or as high as 990,000. “It’s all a plot to take down Trump,” he snarls.

      But Trump said the entire thing is a

  25. Sorry for asking but say you don’t flatten the curve but shorten the 25-75% quartiles (in other words increase the amplitude but shorten the width-time. Will the area under the curve been more or less if you flatten the curve? See my point. Maybe more people get it and die in a shorter period of time but it turn about the same amount get it and die over a longer period of time if you flatten the bell curve? i’m surprised no liberal art “woke” journalist has asked this..after all the only real solution is heard immunity. Perhaps flattering the curve means less “area”? the real impact to lower the areas is to quarantine asap which we didn’t do.

    1. Herd immunity requires 60-80% immunity, one of two ways.
      1) A vaccine, which is estimated over a year away.
      2) Having been infected.
      How many people would you allow to die, either way?

      I’d bet money, lots of it, that “woke” journalists know better.

      You also don’t know how the curve works. Flattening the curve does not spreading out the same number of infections. It means a LOT fewer infections. Why bother?

      The goal is to keep the deaths as low as possible, while a vaccine is being developed and tested. Which means those people will NEVER be infected.
      Just ask any “woke” journalist!

    2. The point of the “flattening the curve” is in theory to give hospitals time to get ready, buy time for a vaccine, and develop herd immunity.

      The hospital collapse argument is the best case for it, as if the hospital system collapsed, the deaths from lack of available emergency care would far exceed the deaths from the virus itself.

      CV is especially difficult for hospitals because 1) it’s very contagious and requires much greater protective efforts then usual to not give it to other patients and health care workers 2) very ill people need to be put on a respirator, which was generally an uncommonly used piece of equipment in hospitals (or rather unusual for lots and lots of people to need one)

      1. The point of the “flattening the curve” is in theory to give hospitals time to get ready, buy time for a vaccine, and develop herd immunity.

        It should also be noted that it was little more than a theory. How much do we need to flatten the curve? No one knows. Is it possible that, by flattening the curve we simply draw out the amount of time that hospitals are overwhelmed (e.g. 8 weeks at 110% capacity instead of 4 weeks at 150%)? Uh… not no.

        Further, it’s all posited on the false notion that there’s some sort of light at the end of the tunnel. That, once we reach date X, deaths from coronavirus will stop occurring with zero indication from anyone ever that date X is not another one of those days that perpetually 10 yrs. down the road.

        1. Not to mention that we can’t acquire herd immunity with most people hunkered down in their homes not catching the virus.

          In order to get herd immunity, you need 60-80% of the population to either get a vaccine, or catch the virus. We’re actively not letting that happen.

          1. DO THE MATH!
            YOU WANT 40-60 MILLION DEATHS … for your personal convenience

            Not to mention that we can’t acquire herd immunity with most people hunkered down in their homes not catching the virus.

            NEXT .,.. SMOOSH A PIE INTO YOUR OWN PUSS!

            In order to get herd immunity, you need 60-80% of the population to either get a vaccine, or catch the virus. We’re actively not letting that happen.

            KNOWS 200-300 MILLION AMERICANS MUST BE INFECTED, WITH 40-60 MILLION DEATHS … DOES NOT CARE

            LIES ABOUT DOZENS OF VACCINE PROJECTS … ONE STARTED TESTING YESTERDAY, USING ANTIBODIES EXTRACTED FROM BLOOD OF RECOVERED CORONAVIRUS. (Works with some viruses, not all. COULD be a significant game-changer on timing.)

            … while Trumptards SCREECH in hysteria, SNEERING that hundreds of millions suffer .. to bail out their DEADLY President … who THINKS it became a crisis … seventeen days ago!
            (uncontrollable vomiting)

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  29. One aspect that really is not getting much comment, but will be very impactful in the long run. If the majority of deaths are the elderly, there will very shortly be the one of the largest one-time transfers of wealth in our history in the next 8 months. This will have huge implications for many, many tears.

    Example(s): Will distribution rules change to require a faster liquidation of inherited IRA/401K, etc? What happens to ‘stepping up’ bases? Inheritance taxes?

  30. Observations from a front line doctor.

    “I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know.

    “Clinical course is predictable.

    “2-11 days after exposure (day 5 on average) flu like symptoms start. Common are fever, headache, dry cough, myalgias (back pain), nausea without vomiting, abdominal discomfort with some diarrhea, loss of smell, anorexia, fatigue.

    “Day 5 of symptoms- increased SOB, and bilateral viral pneumonia from direct viral damage to lung parenchyma.

    “Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours.

    “81% mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, 5% critical.

    “Patient presentation is varied. Patients are coming in hypoxic (even 75%) without dyspnea. I have seen Covid patients present with encephalopathy, renal failure from dehydration, DKA. I have seen the bilateral interstitial pneumonia on the xray of the asymptomatic shoulder dislocation or on the CT’s of the (respiratory) asymptomatic polytrauma patient. Essentially if they are in my ER, they have it. Seen three positive flu swabs in 2 weeks and all three had Covid 19 as well. Somehow this ***** has told all other disease processes to get out of town.

    “China reported 15% cardiac involvement. I have seen covid 19 patients present with myocarditis, pericarditis, new onset CHF and new onset atrial fibrillation. I still order a troponin, but no cardiologist will treat no matter what the number in a suspected Covid 19 patient. Even our non covid 19 STEMIs at all of our facilities are getting TPA in the ED and rescue PCI at 60 minutes only if TPA fails.

    “Diagnostic

    “CXR- bilateral interstitial pneumonia (anecdotally starts most often in the RLL so bilateral on CXR is not required). The hypoxia does not correlate with the CXR findings. Their lungs do not sound bad. Keep your stethoscope in your pocket and evaluate with your eyes and pulse ox.

    “Labs- WBC low, Lymphocytes low, platelets lower then their normal, Procalcitonin normal in 95%
    CRP and Ferritin elevated most often. CPK, D-Dimer, LDH, Alk Phos/AST/ALT commonly elevated.
    Notice D-Dimer- I would be very careful about CT PE these patients for their hypoxia. The patients receiving IV contrast are going into renal failure and on the vent sooner.

    “Basically, if you have a bilateral pneumonia with normal to low WBC, lymphopenia, normal procalcitonin, elevated CRP and ferritin- you have covid-19 and do not need a nasal swab to tell you that.

    “A ratio of absolute neutrophil count to absolute lymphocyte count greater than 3.5 may be the highest predictor of poor outcome. the UK is automatically intubating these patients for expected outcomes regardless of their clinical presentation.

    “An elevated Interleukin-6 (IL6) is an indicator of their cytokine storm. If this is elevated watch these patients closely with both eyes.

    “Other factors that appear to be predictive of poor outcomes are thrombocytopenia and LFTs 5x upper limit of normal.

    “Disposition

    “I had never discharged multifocal pneumonia before. Now I personally do it 12-15 times a shift. 2 weeks ago we were admitting anyone who needed supplemental oxygen. Now we are discharging with oxygen if the patient is comfortable and oxygenating above 92% on nasal cannula. We have contracted with a company that sends a paramedic to their home twice daily to check on them and record a pulse ox. We know many of these patients will bounce back but if it saves a bed for a day we have accomplished something. Obviously we are fearful some won’t make it back.

    1. You really have no clue, do you. That’s virtually the exact opposite of what dozens of actual experts say. Blows it immediately on the incubation time.
      Most is useless to 90% of Americans.

      Did you get that at Infowars? Breitbart? Daily Caller?
      I’d ask Fox, but even they aren’t THAT wacko!

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