Johan Norberg: How Sweden Defied Dire COVID Predictions
The attacks on Sweden's laissez faire approach were shortsighted, says the Cato Institute senior fellow.

This is an audio version of The Reason Livestream, which takes place every Thursday at 1 p.m. Eastern on Reason's YouTube channel.
This week, Reason's Zach Weissmueller and Liz Wolfe sat for an in-depth discussion with Johan Norberg about the lessons to draw from Sweden's pandemic policies
The Swedish government's decision to forgo lockdowns as most of Europe, Asia, and North America's political leaders forcibly closed businesses and schools in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic became one of the most controversial policies of 2020.
The New York Times in April 2020 designated Sweden "the world's cautionary tale," and President Donald Trump proclaimed that "Sweden is paying heavily for its decision not to lockdown" as an early wave of COVID deaths hit Sweden harder than its Nordic neighbors.
But to Swedish officials, "it looked like it was other countries that were engaging in a dangerous experiment," writes Cato Institute Senior Fellow Johan Norberg in a policy paper entitled "Sweden during the pandemic: Pariah or paragon?"
Today, Sweden's COVID-19 death rate is not an outlier, and its excess death rate from 2020 to the present is the lowest in Europe.
In a retrospective report on the country's pandemic response, Sweden's public health officials say that they should have more aggressively protected senior citizens and tested and quarantined travelers from COVID hot spots in those early days, but they consider the focus on public health recommendations that people can "follow voluntarily" over coercive lockdowns was "fundamentally correct."
Norberg also points out that Sweden avoided the economic contraction that its neighboring countries suffered, as well as the learning loss experienced in countries that closed schools for months or even years.
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Let's just consider this thread a place of silent reflection...
No!
I'll just put this in my bulging file folder marked "stuff that Reason didn't notice until it didn't matter anymore".
In a sub folder “Facts still denied by some idiots here”.
JFree, tony, sarc, jeff and mike, chicken littles all, hardest hit.
Oh, and that famous bear in the trunk!
Is that the same as having a tiger in my tank?
It’s easier for weak people to just pretend nothing is happening.
I don’t wonder how once great countries became dictatorships anymore.
It’s easier to just love big brother.
So many people go along to get along. When it would be easier to eliminate the Marxist filth. And really, are ‘people’ like Tony, Mike, Sarc, Fatfuck Pedo Jeffy, Shreek, and especially SQRLSY really people?
Be honest. You mean the "I'm going to bitch about this until they cover it, then pretend like it was never a big deal" pile.
Crawl back into your garbage can, pussy.
WTF?
Democratic Mayor Of Dallas: "American Cities Need Republicans... & I'm Becoming One"
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democratic-mayor-dallas-american-cities-need-republicans-im-becoming-one
It’s pretty simple, he doesn’t want his city become a shithole.
https://ibb.co/PW48K1q
how many articles with t he same source material
AS of 12/2020
More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark.
Nothing like trying to demonize Sweden's excellent record by confusing death tallies with death rates (per 100,000).
there covid death per million are the worst of the nordics, by far
it is you who are confused
Any particular reason you use a metric from 2020 when the article is using data from 2020 to today?
Today, Sweden's COVID-19 death rate is not an outlier, and its excess death rate from 2020 to the present is the lowest in Europe.
Pre vaccine pre end of lockdowns
Gotcha, so really just cherry picking a time frame that makes them look bad even though it was always a long term strategy based on well established scientific principles that empirically paid off for them exactly the way they said it would at the time.
Didn't take me long to find the cumulative data as of 9-21-23, if you're interested.
Cumulative deaths per 1 million people (rounded):
UK: 3397
US: 3332
Europe: 2789
Sweden: 2348
High Income: 2320
Germany: 2099
Finland: 1838
Denmark: 1498
Canada: 1392
Norway: 1040
Australia: 874
New Zealand: 638
Japan: 603
Iceland: 499
Each of these countries (I also included Europe and "High Income" averages for comparison) has their own demographics, rates of travel, health care systems, and all had their own policy responses. It also matters how the people in those places actually behaved on top of whatever their governments implemented as official policy.
For people truly interested in figuring out how everyone, from health care professionals seeing patients, health care system administrators, public health experts in or out of government, patients of all ages and risk profiles, and even the media can best respond to an infectious disease crisis like COVID-19, these numbers don't tell you enough. Reason's previous articles regarding Sweden's COVID response likewise aren't nearly enough in depth to consider all of the variables between different countries before drawing conclusions about who had the best COVID policies.
What a Swedish libertarian think tanker with a degree in the "history of ideas" is likely to come up with about these questions is much less interesting to me than research by people with professional expertise in public health.
Sweden: 2348
Finland: 1838
Denmark: 1498
Norway: 1040
Win?
BTW, the steaming pile of lefty shit JasonT20 believes murder is a proper preventative if someone might later do something or other:
JasonT20
February.6.2022 at 6:02 pm
“How many officers were there to stop Ashlee Babbitt and the dozens of people behind her from getting into the legislative chamber to do who knows what?...”
Fuck off and die, asshole.
Since there is just about nothing any government force did, or theoretically could do, that would have had any effect I'm not even sure why we're talking about the success of this or that version of authoritarian lock down. There is no direct line you can draw between policy and number of people who died in any nation or state.
The drastic mistake that politicians made was thinking that they could actually make people not interact with each other, with or without economic activity. It's akin to declaring the sun should not rise tomorrow. That was always a very unrealistic goal, and the mask nonsense was utter junk science that is outright scientific fraud.
Make of that what you will, but this is an exercise in measuring things because people need to measure things. The conclusions they're going to reach are going to be patently political. There is no other possibility.
I think this just puts the cherry on top with data to show your assertion (mine as well) was correct. We knew it at the time but now have data to prove it.
No more than the author is cherry picking by extending the time period past when lockdowns were a differentiator
If there are no lockdowns, what are we talking about?
What is your point you want to touch on? You liked a 14 year olds science fair excel project strategy on pandemic management?
No. Looking at the entire covid period is the opposite of cherry picking. There is no artificial time horizon imposed. If you want to know how a country did overall, it is the only honest way to look at it. Whether lockdowns in 2020 reduced the number of deaths attributed to covid is completely irrelevant if you don't also consider all of the other consequences of lockdowns, many of which will take years to manifest.
You still are missing the point entirely. Looking at the official covid death tolls (which count a lot of deaths not immediately caused by covid) is not the only thing you need to consider by a long shot. Lockdowns caused real harm, and real death. You need to consider all outcomes, not just covid related ones. When you look at excess deaths, which is the appropriate measure, Sweden did well.
Also pre-fallout and after-effects from the lockdowns, and during the period where the impact of severe lockdowns postponing deaths was being mistaken for preventing them. Statistically, almost nobody who'd been
Not to mention before there was any accounting for the differences in how "covid deaths" were being country from country to country. Turned out that in Sweden the government was just checking whether someone who died had ever been tested positive for Covid, which is even more agressive than how the USA was counting (varied from State to State, but some places were simply calling anyone who'd tested positive within 6 weeks as a "covid death").
The fact that age and underlying health are such huge factors in the level of danger from Covid (similar to Flu and most other Coronavirus strains, as well as many other usually minor illnesses) causes a lot of issues over whether "excess deaths" or "covid deaths" is a more useful measure anyway. So many of the people who "died from Covid" were essentially in palliative care already (and in places like NYC were forcibly exposed to the virus before much was known about it), and statistically shouldn't have been expected survive to 2023 with or without a pandemic; median life expectancy for patients who are "permanently" checked into nursing homes was something like 16-20 months in late 2019.
Besides that, the measure of "excess deaths" captures the human cost of lockdown policies, especially in places where they were kept in place for multiple months (L.A. County CA was really only partially "reopened" for about 2 months from April 2020-June 2021, and was requiring "proof of vax" for most social activities for another 8-12 months after that and kept public schools closed for three full semesters plus the end of the 2019-2020 school year) where isolation can induce depression and cause addicts to relapse/overdose
With covid, from covid, adjacent to covid.
a very libertarian economic response
In addition to the successful vaccination rollout, the Swedish government (Regeringen), the Swedish parliament (Riksdag) and the Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank) have taken a raft of measures to safeguard people’s livelihoods, including wage subsidies and other liquidity measures to mitigate the financial impact of the global health crisis. These have been coupled with large‑scale asset purchases and a SEK 45bn (US$5.3bn) “green restart” of the Swedish economy, investing in energy efficiency in multi‑dwelling buildings, expanding the charging infrastructure for heavy vehicles, advancing railway maintenance, and putting in place environmental protections and reducing taxes to promote green technology and circular economy initiatives.
https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/OTEzNTU3ODAx
If only the US Government could have reacted on a scale where $5Billion would have been a noticable portion of the whole.
The non-voting "delegates" to Congress were probably each allowed to stuff more than $5Billion of whatever nonsense they wanted money for into the CARES act; at the size of that spending package (and the three that followed), no amount that small would even stand out in the fine print.
Of the Nordic countries, Denmark, Finland, and Norway had the mildest health and
economic consequences. The economic repercussions in Sweden are at
approximately the same level as the other Nordic countries, but the health
consequences have been more grave. Conversely, in Iceland, the economy was
severely hit, but the health consequences were mild.
https://norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1665244/FULLTEXT01.pdf
economics of Nordic countries
https://ibb.co/PW48K1qhttps://ibb.co/8XSNggs
Fuck off slaver.
Now, as a steaming pile of TDS-addled lefty shit, compare what your BF Newsom inflicted on CA to Sweden.
And then, eat shit and die, asshole.
The sheer intellect of the bobbleheads here always amazes me
You are absolutely wrong
Only Sweden had the right COVID-19 response
https://archive.ph/WuX24
Defend an opinion column with another opinion column. Jacoby is a right wing tool always has been
Who in the hell are you trying to convince? No self-respecting libertarian is going to hew to your not so subtle authoritarian evangelism, fuckwit. Take your clumsy shtick somewhere else.
When you are using Sweden as the example of Libertarianism, you have already lost the argument, or just do not understand the concept.
"When you are using Sweden as the example of Libertarianism, you have already lost the argument, or just do not understand the concept."
When you attempt to divert from the argument, you are the steaming, TDS-addled pile of lefty shit arpiniant1.
Eat shit and die, asshole.
Very elegant response. Swearing in response to a response to a swearing mouth breather
morons unite indeed
That you refer to others as morons is quite the irony, moron. Get it through your thick skull that no one here gives a shit about your argument. You're not special; just some dick who doesn't know when he's lost and refuses to walk away.
If you were capable of being a moron, you might have standing.
Eat shit and die, steaming pile of lefty shit.
"Very elegant response. Swearing in response to a response to a swearing mouth breather"
Shit-for-brains hoping an appeal to "elegance" might serve to deflect from stupidity. Is this an SRG sock?
Eat shit and die, asshole.
In this situation, Sweden was probably the most libertarian-acting nation in the OECD.
Everyone else was trying to some extent to emulate the response of the CCP, possibly in an attempt to duplicate claimed results which no nation claimed to actually believe?
The entire concept of a "lockdown" didn't even exist in 2019, and prior to the outbreak of covid most of the signers of the "Great Barrington Declaration" would have been named as the worlds ranking "experts" in terms of how to respond to a Pandemic; somehow when they disagreed with hyper-authoritarian reactions, they suddenly became a gang of dangerous malcontents who needed to be silenced for discouraging blind compliance on the part of the public.
"The sheer intellect of the bobbleheads here always amazes me"
The idiocy of the TDS-addled steaming piles of lefty shit are but yet more amazing, TDS-addled steaming pile of lefty shit.
Simple. Liberty always beats totalitarianism.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/14034948211047137
Stonewalled.
Once again, that only considers 2020 data and therefore does not consider all of the consequences of lockdown and other coercive policies.
https://ibb.co/8gbrcvL
Lacking attribution.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/14034948211047137
Stonewalled, shit for brains.
Still waiting for the Sweden/CA comparison from a slimy pile of lefty shit who has yet provided same.
Eat shit and die, asshole.
https://ibb.co/dpkdfBFhttps://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/453684/1/EBP078474213_0.pdf
Error 404.
I dunno what happened to that one
Yeah, you dunno about a lot, steaming pile of TDS-addled lefty shit. Perhaps we can assume you don’t know what you’re posting about.
Once more, shit-for-brains, compare your fave lock-down location which the grease-ball Newsom inflicted on CA to Sweden.
And, yes, shitbag, I want to see medical, economic and educational results. Steaming piles of lefty shit like you tend to hope that cherry-picking pays enough to keep you employed.
The rest of us know full well you are full of shit.
Fuck off and die, asshole; here’s your hat.
How very eloquent. Your mother must be so proud.
Maybe I'll wander down the alley and ask her
I notice you, as a steaming pile of lying lefty shit, still can't answer what is asked of you.
Perhaps, as a sorry excuse for humanity, you could fuck off and die. Make your family proud, measurably improve the intelligence of the world and make your dog happy besides.
Please have someone mark your grave so decent people know where to piss.
From Science:
“Another way to measure the pandemic’s impact is to look at “excess deaths,” the difference between the number of people who died this year and average deaths in earlier years. Those curves show Sweden did not suffer as many excess deaths as England and Wales—whose tolls were among Europe’s highest—but many more than Germany and its Nordic neighbors (see graphic, above). Immigrant communities were hit very hard. Between March and September, 111 people from Somalia and 247 from Syria died, compared with 5-year averages of 34 and 93, respectively.”
Says it all. Sweden did not do well at all when it comes to deaths.
"...Says it all. Sweden did not do well at all when it comes to deaths."
Does nothing of the sort except to cherry-picking shit-piles like you.
@arpiniant1
@Bryce
https://jjmilt.substack.com/p/why-swedens-vindication-on-the-lockdowns
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