Sanctions Won't Defeat Russia
Plus, hear the Reason editors' response to President Biden's SOTU.

Reason editors Matt Welch, Peter Suderman, Katherine Mangu-Ward, and Nick Gillespie discuss attempts to isolate Russia from the rest of the world.
2:28: Americans boycotting all things Russia.
31:26: Weekly listener question: The Cork Opera House canceled an upcoming performance of Swan Lake by the Royal Moscow Ballet. FIFA has said that Russia will not be allowed to compete in the World Cup. And the Eurovision Song Contest announced Russia will not participate in the 2022 show. On the Reason website, Christian Britschgi (March 2, 2022) makes the case that Russian civilians are not in any way responsible for this or any of the actions of an authoritarian government: "Russian tanks have entered Ukraine, so Disney's films can't enter Moscow's cinemas?" The Economist tweeted, "The world must be willing to bleed Vladimir Putin's regime of the resources that enable him to wage war and abuse his own people even if that imposes costs on Western economies." I suspect that sanctions, such as the ones The Economist calls for, will hurt the most vulnerable in Russia's population. I think there is something of a consensus that Putin believes that Russia ought to be an imperialist nation, and he craves to be a large player on the world stage, such that Russia is respected as a world-class power. Is it possible that the snubbing of Russian performances will have no effect on Putin?
41:22: Biden's State of the Union address
This week's links:
- "Congress Tees Up a Plan To Seize Russian Yachts and Properties in the US — and Sell Them for Ukraine Aid," by Juliana Kaplan, Ben Winck, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, and Hillary Hoffower
- "International Cat Federation Bans Russian Cats From Competition," by Jennifer Hassan
Send your questions to roundtable@reason.com. Be sure to include your social media handle and the correct pronunciation of your name.
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if your stress is high, your temper is shorter than usual, or even if you're starting to feel strain in any of your relationships, you could probably use the chance to unload. Unload the stress and get it out. Talk to someone who's completely unbiased about your life, someone who isn't going to judge you or take sides on anything. When there are things you can't tell anyone ... you don't have to see anyone on camera if you don't want to.
Sounds like you-know-who could benefit from BetterHelp!
Don't have to see anyone on camera? I'm glad that's not true for only fans
Brandon's crushing the middle class on an international level.
All is going as expected.
Predictably, the "Popular Political Cause" alarm has gone off in Sting's Fortress of Indulgent Importance.
You know the song
I remember going to Streetside in Placentia the day Dream of the Blue Turtles came out to get the CD
Sanctions won't defeat them but giving them lots of cheap goods will help them.
It seems, Reason Leftertarianism is just fine with a Russian takeover of another country.
This will go one of two ways. Either Putin will be deposed, or we’re in for a
wild ride.
c) All of the Above <--- My vote.
War is ultimately an economic struggle. The North beat the South in the Civil War because the North was more heavily industrialized. The Kaiser lost World War I because the German economy had been exhausted. Hitler and the Imperial Japanese failed in World War II because we were able to take out their industrial capacity and even target their labor force. The Soviet Union fell apart because their economy was unable to support the military apparatus necessary to maintain control of their territory and their satellites.
Sanctions may not be enough to push Putin from power, but Putin can't maintain a war and occupation in Ukraine greater than the ability of the Russian economy to support it.
I posted these facts over the weekend. Here they are again:
GDP of Russia before the invasion: $1.7 trillion
Combined GDP of NATO countries: $42.6 trillion
2% of NATO countries' GDP: $852 billion
$852 of Russia's GDP: 50.1%
NATO's combined GDP per capita is $45,129.
Russia's GDP per capita is about $12,000.
Driving the cost of maintaining military control up for the USSR was one of the reasons we won the Cold War the first time (and sending Stingers to Afghanistan was part of that).
To the extent that sanctions hurt Russia's economy, they hurt Putin's ability to wage war. It probably won't be enough to push Putin from power, but it could be enough to deprive Putin of the economic support he needs to wage an effective occupation in the Ukraine (or beyond). Sanctions are certainly far more costly to the Russians in terms of percentage of the GDP per capita than they are for people in NATO countries.
And this is one of the reasons why sanctioning Russian oil is self-defeating. For sanctions be effective, the objective should be to make it so that they're felt by our own consumers as little as possible. Artificially raising the price of oil by embargoing Russian oil maximizes the impact of sanctions on our own people.
What we should be doing is dropping Biden's freeze on drilling on public lands for short term relief and jump starting the last phase of Keystone for the long term benefit. That would serve to lower the impact of Putin's war on our own people and lessen the rest of the world's dependence on Russian oil. Biden's got us begging OPEC for more oil again, and that should be unnecessary.
https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/nato
What was afghanistans GDP?
Is that a rhetorical question?
The straight answer is that the costs of maintaining the occupation weren't worth the upside.
The Greeks, the British, the Russians, and the Americans all seem to agree: Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
That goes double for Russia.
"Members of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which includes the United States and Japan, agreed to release 60 million barrels of crude from their reserves to try to quell the sharp increase in prices that pushed major benchmarks past $100 a barrel. read more
"However, news of that release - equivalent to less than one day of worldwide oil consumption - only magnified the market's fear that supply will be inadequate to cover growing disruptions."
"Brent futures rose $7.00, or 7.1%, to settle at $104.97 a barrel, their highest close since August 2014."
----Reuters, March 1, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-climb-market-weighs-release-reserves-vs-russia-disruption-2022-03-01/
The price of oil isn't skyrocketing because it expects short term supply problems to be addressed sometime soon--not if prices are rising despite releasing our strategic reserves. The market appears to be pricing in a long term disruption.
Biden's calculation now is about how bad the midterms will be if oil is hovering around $133 a barrel in November. He may already be factoring in the Republicans taking both the House and the Senate. It's a good thing for him that the Green New Deal failed.
But he said he would “work like the devil “ to bring down gas prices.
Haven’t you seen the results yet?
I'm reading that he's been talking about looking to Venezuela or Iran--anything but bring back the American energy industry.
Progressives gotta go.
Biden is desperately seeking for oil anywhere other than Texas.
Exactly, and it's all about his climate change agenda.
Forced sacrifice for climate change is what this is about.
Also pushing a nationalized EV charging grid, which seems sensible, but for the price, both per vehicle and charge rate fill-up. And the fact that EVs are not suitable for use except for urban types, or urban transplants who do not need reliable all conditions, all weather vehicles. Unreliable fair weather warm temperature short range grocery getters, that cannot be used if there may be an emergency, in simple terms. This does not take into account the lithium battery fire risk.
And you thought the supply chain crisis was bad when truck diesel was $3.50 per gallon... Just wait until you see what 5 or 6 brings.
US oil companies have said they are worried about producing too much oil, Ken. Their capital budgets are shrinking to keep the price high.
You’re more retarded than dog shit.
It wouldn't be a day of the week with a "y" in it, if Shrike didn't show up to lie about oil.
??? I was told it was “transitory “.
"We" also sank the Soviet Union by ramping up global crude production and depressing prices. (There's a B-grade movie in there somewhere.)
Good post Ken except for the drilling on public lands throw away. How long do you think it will take for that to come on line and produce oil. There are 9,000 US drilling permits already issued on federal lands going unused and oil companies are holding back on production for their own financial reasons:
"The global energy shock caused by the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, from which the U.S. imports more than 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily, has prompted new calls from across the political spectrum for more domestic drilling to bring down gasoline prices.....
But in Colorado and beyond, large oil companies currently reporting their 2021 financial results and 2022 outlooks to shareholders are pledging to continue holding back on new production as they prioritize positive cash flows and capital returns for investors.....After plummeting amid a demand shock in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. oil production is rising again — but slowly....... independent financial analysts had long questioned the sustainability of shale drilling, also known as “unconventional” production. The new drilling techniques were expensive, requiring large capital and operating expenditures and tight margins that made producers vulnerable to price volatility. Wall Street investors funneled large amounts of cash into the fracking boom in the early 2010s, but gradually soured on the industry as many operators racked up debt and unconventional wells struggled to produce enough oil and gas to be profitable.
While COVID-19’s impact on the oil and gas sector was what made headlines, a financial reckoning was already well underway in early 2020, reshaping the industry through a wave of bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions that began before the onset of the pandemic and has continued long after...."
https://coloradonewsline.com/2022/03/03/colorado-drillers-oil-russia-ukraine-crisis/
Those nasty companies trying to make profits.
How dare they?
Fine that they do, but everyone here keeps claiming US oil company drilling is being held back by Biden. That's BS as both the numbers on production and the article I cited make clear.
Fuck off, Brandon.
oil companies are holding back on production for their own financial reasons
Oil companies are holding back on production because Biden's already burned them twice losing hundreds of millions of dollars.
Biden Administration Halts New Drilling 2022/02/20
No, they're not, and there are no facts to support that.
Grain futures have more than doubled from a 52 week low, with most of the price occuring since February. It's not just oil that is being even close to being impacted by the war. Russia and Ukraine account to over a third of the annual global grain production. Food prices were already forecasted to increase due to increased production prices (fertilizer, pesticides and fuel) paired with a years long drought through most of the grain and beef producing areas, swine flu in the pork states and avian flu in chicken producing areas. Now, grain prices are going to be even higher, pushing up meat and milk prices. So, even without oil sanctions the sanctions and the war are going to impact US consumers.
As for deterring future actions, sanctions are, historically speaking, just as likely if not more to result in more aggression rather than less.
One of the differences is that Biden didn't actively try to shut down grain production, but he has actively fought to shut down oil production--with Keystone XL being one example and his suspension of drilling on public lands being another.
"In an effort to slow the nation's contribution to climate change, President Biden has signed an executive order to begin halting oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters."
----NPR, January 27, 2021
https://www.npr.org/sections/president-biden-takes-office/2021/01/27/960941799/biden-to-pause-oil-and-gas-leasing-on-public-lands-and-waters
It could be argued that biden is responsible for the potential issues with the grain market, based on his complete ineptitude. His in-group is well known for an inability to envision 2nd order effects.
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1500981178043666436?t=n4PvW9o4ep1OnhPTPaxaRA&s=19
NATO has been such a force for stability and peace. It solves so many problems and never creates or exacerbates them. Thank goodness any questioning of its utility has been thoroughly de-legitimized
Does that tweet cite any facts? Did you just regurgitated the text of a tweet? Why would you do that, when you could have made the same unsupported statement yourself? Why do you need a tweet to tell you what to say? I suspect it's because you're stupid. That's the behavior of a stupid person.
You're a broken little bitch, ken, and you're pissed because I've proven to be correct far more often than you have.
Tell us again why hitting Suleimani was such a bad idea, pussy.
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1500979780224786444?t=TWVtnGNgHox7DwM_fsPf-A&s=19
Our economy is on the brink of falling off of a cliff, and the DC class is trying to bog us down in another costly, pointless, immoral war. Evil.
No, they're not Nardz, which is why Biden and the Democrats and the GOP virtually all oppose a no-fly zone.
Hillary clinton called for a no fly zone and 75% of self-identified democrats polled positive for it.
Republican senators have called for assasinating putin.
The war class wants war, dont be a fool
When you are a fool, you can’t help looking a fool.
I feel your pain Don't look.
The richer they are the bigger their war boner:
Rasmussen Reports
@Rasmussen_Poll
"If a wider war breaks out in Europe, should the U.S. military be involved?"
All Voters - Yes - 49%
- Yes by Income -
Under $30K: 37%
$30-50K: 48%
$50-100K: 51%
$100-200K: 52%
Over $200K: 66%
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1498778759893327872
NO, Hillary did not call for no-fly zone over Ukraine this decade. The political leadership of both parties are opposed to a no-fly zone and mostly all have stated their opposition to our sending troops or otherwise becoming directly in military conflict with Russia.
Could that change? Sure, but for now cooler heads overwhelmingly prevail in Washington.
Yes, Putin's war is costly and immoral, and hopefully pointless. The Russian state is committing an act of evil.
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1500929398014451718?t=36UTRET--3-iqv3cAIQ7Hw&s=19
Everyone in my neighborhood who had a Trust Fauci sign now has a Ukrainian flag
That guy should move,
Meanwhile, here is what the US Congress is focused on (from the WSJ):
WASHINGTON—After more than a 100 years of effort and 200 bills that failed, legislation to designate lynching a federal hate crime passed Congress on Monday, and will head to President Biden for a signature.
The measure passed the Senate by unanimous consent, meaning none of the 100 senators objected. It cleared the House last month in a 422–3 vote.
This bill would for the first time establish a new criminal civil-rights violation for the act of lynching in the U.S. Criminal Code.
If the Russian people (or the Ukrainians) ever get to string up Putin, will that be OK?
For a different analysis than you'll see on Fox/CNN/NBC/CBS/etc, and it's obviously just Kremlin propaganda...
https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1500996394659696640?t=uB3PvA7NdqUDuwoT6UTf1g&s=19
The West thinks sanctions are hurting Putin.
They have it backwards: His power inside Russia is surging.
A thread on what analysts are getting so wrong.
[Thread]
Nardz, is this your boy?
Clint Ehrlich is a visiting researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).
American attorney who was a Visiting Researcher inside Russia's Foreign Ministry
"Clint Ehrlich is a visiting researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)."
Is that supposed to disqualify him from commenting on Russian affairs? Are you disputing poll numbers and trends he's observing?
It's actually quite plausible that a bunch of nationalists in Europe are prone to blame the west, America, the Jews, etc for all their problems. They've been like that for like, decades and centuries.
Brandon here is a special kind of stupid. Not shrike stupid, but he tries his best every day.
If Shrike and Jeff had a particularly retarded baby.
It's debatable, perhaps a coin toss. Neither seems to understand the material they post, the links they use for citation almost always refute what they are arguing for, yet they will continue to insist they are correct. Then, I've described most of the firmly progressive left-leaning commentariat here.
XM, he's a Putin stooge.
Find another source.
Here's the stable genius's solution for the Ukraine:
"Former president Donald Trump mused Saturday to the GOP’s top donors that the United States should label its F-22 planes with the Chinese flag and “bomb the s--t out of Russia. And then we say, China did it, we didn’t do it, China did it, and then they start fighting with each other and we sit back and watch,”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/03/06/trump-focuses-foreign-policy-speech-gops-top-donors/
Yes, this goober was actually President.
It’s so much better now.
Autonomous drones might be better. All the Russian tanks and vehicles are marked with a big white Z.
And what could possibly go wrong with unleashing autonomous drones?
If science fiction has taught me anything? There would be no bad side effects to autonomous drones with ballistic missiles.
The WaPo is well known for it's fair & balanced reporting on Trump, and never writing whole editorials based on deliberate misinterpretations and cherrypicked statements dozens of times.
Let's have a look:
"He also praised North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as “seriously tough,” claimed he was harder on Vladimir Putin than any other president, reiterated his false claims that he won the 2020 election, urged his party to be “tougher” on supposed election fraud, disparaged a range of prominent party opponents and called global warming “a great hoax” that could actually bring a welcome development: more waterfront property."
Well it certainly starts off fair and balanced. No crazy invective here. I guess Trump saying Kim Jong Un is “seriously tough”.
...Joking aside, I was going to actually fisk Joe WaPo article further but the whole thing reads like a drunken rant.
I mean look (and remember that this isn't an editorial but what passes for reporting at WaPo):
"He espoused praise for North Korea’s brutal leader, marveling at how Kim’s generals and aides “cowered” when the dictator spoke to them... Trump also spent a large portion of his speech falsely claiming... offering unsubstantiated theories... he finished the speech with a long jeremiad... Trump made an ominous call... He also viciously mocked... labeling former vice president... Trump falsely stated... Trump’s speech was a culmination of two days of events at the gilded riverfront resort here, where a dazzling chandelier dominates the lobby and sturgeon caviar goes for $200 an ounce and tiki cocktails go for $18... The mood has been largely ebullient... Trump has continued to falsely claim... Pence obliquely chastised Trump... Several people in the room said Trump’s speech stretched far too long and he sounded like he was rambling more in the last 30 minutes. In the middle of the speech, attendees said people in the crowd seemed to lose interest... He attacked Biden for rising inflation and gas prices, using exaggerated numbers in some cases... He mocked Biden for continually saying the United States would not militarily attack Russia but offered ambivalence on exactly what he could do... And he ominously spoke of Putin... Biden has received some plaudits for his handling of the Ukraine situation among foreign policy experts... Trump reiterated some of his frequently repeated falsehoods and petty grievances... He mocked the concept of sea levels rising, disputing widely held science... He bragged about his crowds, inflating numbers at recent rallies, and mocked Biden for observing social distancing... He mocked several of his former aides, including John Bolton, who he said only loved going to war... he labeled Rep. Adam B. Schiff...
What kind of batshit insane propaganda op is that junk?
No wonder bien pensants like Joe are so fucked in the head.
Mother, the quote is reported in multiple sources and there is nothing false in the WaPo article.
That's your boy! You must be very proud. I'm thanking our stars we got out of that 4 years in one piece.
Yeah, he should have known that F22s are simply air superiority fighters and can't bomb anything.
The idea is sound, though. We need some sort of deniable military force for stuff like this.
He also should know that modern radar doesn't look at decals on planes and recognizes them by their shape. The Chinese don't have F-22s or anything that mimics their shape.
Remember, this is the guy who doesn't read anything, including his security briefings.
https://twitter.com/emeriticus/status/1500938901829173251?t=pqUEgntNND9vhUXGYJd40A&s=19
US elites supported BLM as it rioted and destroyed small businesses, supported flattening livelihoods/creating a bio security state during covid, and now they're willing to let middle Americans bear the brunt of sanctions in a war that has nothing to do with us
The people hit hardest by this protracted conflict will be Ukrainians and Americans
Zelensky is willing to allow Ukrainians to die to serve his oligarch and State Department backers, and US elites are willing to make life harder for the middle to support him
Basically these people are willing to see more Ukrainians die, Americans struggle, and Russians starve than not get their way
This is called liberal democracy
https://twitter.com/ArtaMoeini/status/1500959367163617281?t=nu-Xs1-lRxXRah0lGcijow&s=19
The Establishment moves seamlessly from generating hysteria around 1 crisis to another. This isnt about the crisis; it isn't about [Ukraine] or [Russia] or Covid; each is simply an opportunity for fear-mongering using our baser instincts. Reaction-wise, the parallels are eerie & striking. 1
Russia is the new Covid. Our policy: Quarantine the country; block it off with sanctions that won't work to stop the virus (sorry war). Russians are the new unvaxxed—cancel & demonize the whole population. You didnt notice the pandemic was over bc a new one has already started. 2
No matter the crisis, PMC has the same MO: 1) existentialize 2) moralize 3) Use invented pandemonium to weaponize language 4) securitize the state for maximum compliance. Only a regime suffering from a severe legitimacy crisis needs these sorts of ritualistic pledges of fealty. 3
Let me be clear, [the above] is NOT a conspiracy theory: no hidden monolithic cabal deciding affairs. If that were so, the task would be much simpler. It is a sociological account of a dispersed global holier-than-thou Class protecting its interests while signaling virtue to the in-group. 4
The demand for compliance from the out-group—those w lower standing—is mainly the by-product of the hegemonic Class's need for Power/control. This isnt a political problem & can't be fixed by partisanship. It's a sociocultural condition needing the Zeitgeist's total sublation. 5
You're right Nardz. Putin is obviously a respecter of human freedom and clearly has Libertarian tendencies. Nothing is going on in Ukraine, the right's of protesters in Moscow and St Petersburg are protected by the police, and yet the war lords in Europe and America won't let the poor man lead his flock in peace.
But these are sanctions on steroids. Meaning the Russian people will suffer the most. Maybe even enough to turn on their leader(s).
Because wrecking the economy of a nation in retribution for a war in Europe has never historically ended up with the people choosing a far worse leader....
"The world must be willing to bleed Vladimir Putin's regime of the resources that enable him to wage war and abuse his own people even if that imposes costs on Western economies."
Great; now have Brandon grant that permit to resume construction of the XL pipeline.
If there's less economic activity because of sanctions and more oil on the market (Venezuela, Iran, Shale, etc) than the price should come down.
Sanctions will deprive the oligarchs of money, whether it's businesses with declining revenues, shrinking stock portfolios, rubles that have little value against hard currencies, seized assets (like yachts, aircraft, villas, New York condos, business assets, etc.), and so on.
The oligarchs put up with Putin the same way the NFL owners put up with Roger Goodell, because he makes them money. When Putin is costing them money, they will figure out a way to remove him.
Perhaps they convince the military to arrest him. Perhaps Putin gets kidnapped and taken to the Hague to face a war crimes tribunal. Perhaps someone makes a few phone calls, and then tells Putin he can get on a Gulfstream to some little country that will give him safe haven. Maybe the oligarchs pay off the security detail, and then Putin has an "accident" or "gets a cold" like Yuri Andropov.
Russia has an economy smaller than Texas...But they will sink ours.
So think about it besides the petrol they control a lot of the fertilizer that grows our food and feeds our cattle.
Russians are strong and will continue on...Americans as a whole are soft as butter.
They all talk the talk till their bellies grumble or they don't have water, electricity or internet.
It's NOT our war...Or our people...And the Ukrainian government is dirty.
Biden got us in a self destructive spiral and won't allow us to use our own crude...The Russians will now sell it to the Chinese at HIGHER prices.
Even coal which was I believe $40 a ton is going for up to $350 a ton now.
biden is literally making Putin a SUPER BILLIONAIRE.
Sanctions are a much better idea than nuclear war. It's up to the Russian people to remove Putin from office. Until they do they they must suffer, innocent and guilty alike. That's also what happened to innocent Germans and Japanese during World War 2.
Reason's mindless boilerplate starting point on any issue: "x won't [do whatever to] x."
We were always at war with east Asia
er.. Russia.
Go git him!
The Democrats have been at war with Russia ever since Mueller "proved" that Russia helped defeat Hillary Clinton.
What’s wrong with you? Don’t you have the “battle hymn of the republic “ playing in a continuous loop in your head?
No thanks to Emmanuel Trumpstein!
As I’m sure you know, this isn’t anything new. I just don’t want it.
Those imbeciles would probably be FBI.
I’m going to pass.
You'd be arrested, held indefinitely without trial, and your bank account seized... because freedom.
You forgot the bit about accused of being putin's puppet in a smug, self-satisfied tone.
I make 85 dollars each hour for working an online job at home. KLA I never thought I could do it but my best friend makes 10000 bucks every month working this job and she recommended me to learn more about it. The potential with this is endless.
For more detail …. http://rb.gy/u603ti
The number of Feds would be pretty low, I am guessing, from reading the comments here, and watching the news. The emotional reaction and sudden decision that nationalism in support of Ukraine, but never one's own country, is par for the course for the instaoutrage crowd.
Do I have to show my butthole?
Or does that get me extra?
it's so hard to identify sarcasm on the internet without a tag
It bounced back because of the END of WWII. During the war we had rationing and were blowing up our GDP.
Because, at the end of it, we were the ONLY intact industrial power. Funny how easy it is to compete against no-one.
People want to gloss over those 4 years from 1942 to 1945.
Them killing people, and us refusing to do business with them because they are killing other people, are not the same thing.
It’s amazing how economically and historically illiterate the population is. Most people actually believe it was the war and FDR that saved the economy.
You know who else would want to gloss over what he did between 1942 and 1945?
Ha Ha - denice does have a point though. With everything going on Alberta is sure profiting from this https://www.altaboundconcrete.ca