Seattle's $15 Minimum Wage is Hurting the Workers It's Intending to Help
A new study reminds us that the law of supply and demand still applies to labor
Three years ago, the city of Seattle voted to gradually raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour in the name of human decency and basic fairness. Several cities, including New York and Los Angeles, have done the same thing. Critics argue that boosting wages by bureaucratic diktat leads to fewer hours and jobs for low-income and low-skilled workers.
Now what The Washington Post calls a "very credible" study from researchers at the University of Washington finds that the critics are right. The Post calls this bad news for liberals. But the real victims are low-skilled workers.
The study finds that when wages were increased to $13, employers cut hours by 9 percent. That means that low-skilled workers saw their monthly compensation decrease by an average of $125.
Studies that downplay the effects of minimum wage hikes have mostly focused on teenagers and fast food workers. But the study at the University of Washington paper looks at the impact on workers spanning all ages and all demographics.
The findings may surprise progressives who believe that the only limit to higher pay for workers is the greed and selfishness of business owners. But it doesn't come as a surprise to those who remain unconvinced that the law of supply and demand can be amended by city councils. Labor is simply another cost for any business, and when the price of something goes up, we tend to buy less of it.
Another takeaway from the study is that if you want to raise the income of low-skilled workers, taxpayers should pay for that burden through direct cash payments or other forms of welfare. Offloading the cost to employers has unintended consequences, even though it's a lot easier to demonize business owners for being greedy cheapskates than to build a consensus around raising taxes.
The lesson from Seattle that all cities should pay attention to is that forcing business to pay more hurts the very people minimum wage hikes are supposed to help. That such ordinances are usually passed in the name of low-income, low-skilled workers only makes that reality all the worse.
Edited by Todd Krainin. Written by Nick Gillespie. Cameras by Jim Epstein and Kevin Alexander. Still photos by SEIU Local 99 on a Creative Commons license. Seattle video by Max Seigal on a Creative Commons license.
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I wonder if these same politicians raise sin taxes to discourage consumption under the misconception that expensive sin lays such a guilt trip on consumers that the law of supply and demand applies even more so, but raising the price of labor fills employers with such pride in such expensive inputs that supply and demand no longer works.
After all, luxury makes increase demand by raising prices. I remember some company had figured out a legitimate way of producing some luxury good for around one tenth the cost; sales fell like crazy. The hoi polloi assumed it must be a knockoff, and the rich didn't want to buy anything that the hoi polloi turned their nose up even when they could afford it. So he raised his price by a factor of five and sales went up.
That must be what the minwagers think too.
Sin taxes are also dubious as they are often sold simultaneously as a means to discourage consumption, and provide meaningful funding.
If the prior works, then this screws the latter. If the latter works, then the prior did not work as intended.
Yes, inconsistency all around. At least politicians are consistently inconsistent.
I guess it's particularly weird for me because we can almost boil it down to a logical contradiction.
There is a lot of rhetoric that is not supported empirically or something like that, but this one can almost be expressed as (A ^ !A). No external information needed to say it doesn't make sense.
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Ya gotta remember, these are the same Progressive Intellectuals who have been telling us for decades that nuclear waste is simultaneously dangerously radioactive AND long-lived.
The thing is, they mostly think of us as dolts.
"Studies that downplay the effects of minimum wage hikes have mostly focused on teenagers and fast food workers."
They're also just plain bullshit; here's Reich:
"How can such a major improvement in living standards occur without adverse employment effects? The answer is that minimum wage increases generate both negative and positive employment effects. A higher minimum wage induces some automation, as well as increased worker productivity and slightly higher prices; these are the negative effects. A minimum wage increase simultaneously reduces employee turnover, which reduces employers' costs, and it increases worker purchasing power, which stimulates consumer demand. These are the positive effects. As it turns out, these negative and positive effects on employment largely offset each other, in both California and in Fresno County."
http://irle.berkeley.edu/effec.....nd-fresno/
Raising wages increases worker productivity, according to lefty imbecile!
Well, when you fire your worst employees that would seem to be one way of raising your productivity, since it's more or less an average.
Raising wages increases worker productivity, according to lefty imbecile!
So paying people more and, thus, retaining productive workers wouldn't increase productivity? Seems plausible.
Re: Robespierre Joseph Stalin,
You seem not to be aware of the fact that increased productivity has a negative correlation with employment, meaning if you can do more with less people, you don't have to hire as many people. This economic truth explains why there are many less people working in farms, as mechanization made a farm worker much more productive than the peasants before him. So if you accept this truth (which you seem to be doing) then you cannot turn around and claim that a raise in the Minimum Wage does not affect employment. Either it increases productivity or it does not affect employment but it cannot be both.
Do I not acknowledge that here?
that minimum wage hurts workers don't mention that those workers *may* be getting less money, but they are also working significantly less hours.
Which McDonalds Worker has it better off? Worker A who makes $290/wk and works 40 hrs or a Worker B who makes $290/wk and works 19.3 hrs?
Re: Robespierre Joseph Stalin,
Workers are paid by the hour, not by the week. Your math is wrong and thus your question is misleading.
$7.35 minimum wage * 40 hours = $294.00
$15 minimum wage * 19.5 hours = $292.50
Ah, but Worker A is eligible for benefits. McDonalds offers health insurance and 401 (k)s to their full time employees. At 19.5 hours a week, Worker B still has to buy his or her own health insurance (thank you, Barack H Obama). In addition, many landlords and property managers look at your work history as well as your creditworthiness. In a high-cost area such as Seattle, it's unlikely that a part-time worker would be considered as a renter.
In addition, the base wage of a McDonalds employee in the midwest is 11.00 an hour. At 40 hours per week, they would gross 440.00. Even with state, local, federal and ss taxes withheld after claiming themselves as a dependent, they would pull in around 330.00 (unless they are totally foolish and claim zero dependents so the fed will withhold more). A full time employee could fiddle with their W4 withholding and end up with more take home pay while offsetting it with tax credits or deductions; the part-time person has little wiggle room. The only way this individual can improve his / her status is to take on more hours, which undoubtedly means increasing his / her competency and marketability.
Also, there are other ossicle repercussions to an artificially high minimum wage. For instance, I have a friend in Seattle who is a bartender. He says his tips have gone down, he works less hours, and his employer was forced to stop paying for his parking at work to cover the increased overhead. He claims that his overall earnings from that job have dropped almost a thousand dollars per month.
Retaining productive works through pay raises would generally only work if you aren't working at the price floor for labor though. They are literally making the bare minimum possible. Retention would require more than that, generally speaking, if the worker is actually 'productive'.
"Retaining productive works through pay raises would generally only work if you aren't working at the price floor for labor though. They are literally making the bare minimum possible. Retention would require more than that, generally speaking, if the worker is actually 'productive'."
If your competition also raised pay (which they must), you have no incentive to offer.
Exactly. Raising everyone's base pay doesn't mean productivity is being rewarded. However, firing the unproductive workers you can no longer afford to employ could raise the individual productivity of each worker by gaming the average.
Or at least that's the only way that makes sense to me.
Raising wages increases worker productivity, according to lefty imbecile!
It does. They get replaced by robots.
which stimulates consumer demand
This money would have been otherwise used in the economy anyway. It would have been used to buy more toilet paper, for example, which could have been used to buy more toilet paper at the supply store, which could then have used it to pay its employees. The only legitimate argument is that it would have been kept in the local economy, but I think that would be a very minor difference. It mostly would have stayed local anyway.
Well, heck, if its got all those positive effects, let's go ahead and stop pissing around. Go right to $100/hour. Every employee will make about $200K/year, the middle class explodes, the median income jumps to all-time highs...
Fuck that. Just print enough currency to give everyone a million dollars. Problem solved!
Didn't read either in depth but apparently on slashdot there was another article that pointed out the researchers' methods left out a lot of useful data points. The story isn't as clear cut as either makes it is my guess.
https://news.slashdot.org/ story/17/07/03/0455247/ seattle-minimum-wage-study -has-serious-flaws
character limit- omit the spaces for the link.
Basically the study is full of holes that makes it impossible to interpret, yet is trumpeted as definitive by right-wing fetishists.
Suggesting Seattle's booming labor market may have skewed the study's results, two nonpartisan economists concluded it "suffers from a number of data and methodological problems that bias the study in the direction of finding job loss, even where there may have been no job loss at all." And the Washington Post also notes the researchers' findings are suspiciously "out of step with a large body of research," including another study from U.C. Berkeley researchers [PDF] which determined Seattle's wage increase "is having its intended effect."
WaPo says the science is settled. Good enough for me.
The Slashdot story states the following:
"Suggesting Seattle's booming labor market may have skewed the study's results, two nonpartisan economists concluded it "suffers from a number of data and methodological problems that bias the study in the direction of finding job loss, even where there may have been no job loss at all.""
And then links to an article posted by the EPI (Economic Policy Institute). The EPI is a Left leaning publication and calling them non-partisan is pure quibbling. They aren't directly affiliated with the Democratic party but they are quite clearly Left leaning.
From wiki:
"The Economic Policy Institute is a 501(c)(3) non-profit American think tank based in Washington, D.C. that carries out economic research and analyzes the economic impact of policies and proposals. The EPI describes itself as a non-partisan think tank that "seeks to include the needs of low- and middle-income workers in economic policy discussions". It is affiliated with the labor movement,and is usually described as presenting a liberal viewpoint on public policy issues. The EPI has a sister organization, the EPI Policy Center, which is a 501(c)(4) organization for advocacy and education. The EPI advocates for policies favorable for low- to moderate-income families in the United States. The EPI also assesses current economic policies and proposes new policies that EPI believes will protect and improve the living standards of working families."
Yeah, there's another study out there that came to an opposite conclusion and, as usual, the studies that conclude that minimum wage hurts workers don't mention that those workers *may* be getting less money, but they are also working significantly less hours. I wonder how that affects a single mother raising a kid.
She's cool with it, since it's for the greater good.
Of all the lefty trolls we've had, I feel like this one is going to be the worst based on the username
Re: Robespierre Joseph Stalin et al,
The U of W study is much more comprehensive and takes into account many industries besides restaurants, looking at a larger time span. The same cannot be said about the much smaller study cited by Media Matters and the Center For American Progress.
The timing of that study is pretty curious too. You have to wonder if there was some buzz beforehand that the UW study wasn't gonna look good for Seattle
Yes, the buzz beforehand is the mayoral election that's coming up.
be getting less money, but they are also working significantly less hours. I wonder how that affects a single mother raising a kid.
It's very likely that the shorter hours left her with less money than she was making before, especially if she lost her benefits.
#FuckingLoveScience
You want people to die, Todd!
not that this is news...
.... but i think the error here is assuming that the advocates actually intend what they claim.
I think its pretty clear in other (recently mentioned, even) cases that activists use various 'victims' to advance their own agendas which may have little/nothing to do with actually helping those people.
in the case of the minimum-wage activism, i'm not sure that the goal is to help actual minimum wage workers at all. and i think its wrong to instantly assume those are their intentions
Mainly because the people pushing hardest/providing the most bodies @ protests etc. in many cases come from orgs like SEIU, AFSCME, and other large unions, both public and private-sector.
my guess would be that the real goals are twofold; both 1) make non-union labor so expensive that it is uncompetitive, and 2) trigger thresholds in union contracts which demand that the state/other employers raise the base union salaries (defined by contract as Min-wage+x%)
I could be wrong, and the activists could be sincere. But if they were, i suspect they'd be far more concerned with things like the 'vanishing of the teen summer job' (almost ~40% of min wage workers are 19 and under), declining overall employment for those demographics, etc.
They're only doing it for themselves. The beauty of this ploy is they can easily claim it's for the 'benefit of all workers' when in fact it's to protect their own asses.
Nothing more, nothing less.
Cui bono?
You are not wrong. Nearly everything bad that happens in government has a union thug lurking somewhere in the background.
I actually don't think most people have such lucidity. In fact, I'm certain that I don't have that level of lucidity. People believe what they want to believe, justify it after the fact, and if data disagrees with their methods they ignore it or don't think about it.
We as people are good at doing the mental gymnastics needed to avoid cognitive dissonance.
"We as people are good at doing the mental gymnastics needed to avoid cognitive dissonance."
Irony? The act of performing cognitive dissonance to avoid cognitive dissonance?
Took me years to learn sarcasm.
Unfortunately, this rings too true.
Not to mention, for every dollar of minimum wage increase, Federal Government will be taking in 15.3 cents in increased FICA taxes. And in this case, Washington state picks up a few cents for worker's comp and UI taxes.
"in the case of the minimum-wage activism, i'm not sure that the goal is to help actual minimum wage workers at all. and i think its wrong to instantly assume those are their intentions"
May I suggest a scenario?
During the Great Depression and the World War that followed, the Progressives felt that The Workers were with them. They made all kinds of elaborate plans, greatly expanded the authority of the State, and when peace came they were all ready to make the New World.
Unfortunately, the Workers had only been with them when nothing better was on offer. And in the aftermath of World War II, the workers of the United States had either just spent several years in the military, being ordered about, or several years in 'Vital Industry' being well paid and having damn all to spend it on. They weren't in the mood to put up with Bauhaus Worker Housing, Public Transportation, and evenings of listening to lectures by their Intellectual Betters (or, worse, Mahler). They wanted a house in Levittown, a car with tail fins, and a television. And by and large, they got 'em. They left the Left at the Altar, and the Left has never really gotten over it. So they tend to push schemes that will keep their pet 'victims' firmly held down. The Progressives have learned their lesson; the Great Unwashed are an ungrateful bunch, so do not EVER actually give them a way out.
WE NEED MORE EVIDENCE. 100+ YEARS IS NOT ENOUGH.
30 years is enough for climate science though.
Government mandated minimum wages have only been around since 1938, when New Zealand and the USA were the first countries to enact such laws.
One can see the effect government mandated wages have had by the price inflation since then.
Three years ago, the city of Seattle voted to gradually raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour in the name of human decency and basic fairness.
What is the reasoning behind the slow build-up? Aren't decency and fairness valuable right now?
15$ dollars seems far below what I would consider to be human decency. They need to bring it up much higher.
It needs to be at least three times bigger, what is this, an economy for ants!?
The slow buildup is to boil the frog without the frog noticing it's being boiled.
The study finds that when wages were increased to $13, employers cut hours by 9 percent.
I say raise the minimum wage by another 9% to make up for it! No cheating!
Nay, raise it 10% just for good measure! How dare these business owners try to work within a budget!
Wages went from $11 to $13, an 18% jump. The problem with this line of discussion is that we are dealing with statistics. We simply don't have the depth necessary in the available data to say exactly what is happening.
To anyone else out there who hates Paul Krugman, I think Bob Murphy's summary of the study was pretty damn good. If I'm remembering correctly, one of the most interesting things they noticed was that when they used the methodology of previous minimum wage studies, the effect basically disappeared. So that raises the question of whether or not previous studies didn't find significant impacts because the raises were so small in comparison to this one, or if perhaps they weren't able to find the impact because the older methods were always inherently flawed
And of course to anyone still fighting the validity of this study, the Denmark study is absolutely damning. Wish it was getting the same publicity because that graph of employment after age 18 is shocking
Perhaps I should have clarified, it is pretty clear the old methods are flawed. But it's perhaps an open question whether or not an increase of 25 cents has much of an impact beyond the impact that the existence of the minimum wage has in the first place (which is huge of course)
I'm not sure if it's really possible to separate a minimum wage hike from the noise when it's a very small incremental change, but with large changes it's harder for it to get lost in everything else.
Or, from the business side perspective, it's a lot easier to make minor business changes to offset a very small increase in labor price but it's a lot harder to find that money somewhere else when it's a massive hike; this makes it stand out more in economic studies.
I mean, it's nothing new because everyone knows that's how it really works and we've known it for around 100 years or so. This is just the formal motions of 'proving' something to be true that pretty much everyone already knew was true. Don't expect any 'proof' to dissuade those who insist that cannot be how the world works; they are fools.
At least it's fun making them do mental gymnastics to convince themselves they have the moral high ground. The Denmark study is just do incredibly damning especially. Employment drops by about 1/3 at age 18. How can anyone think that's an acceptable outcome?
You can reason somebody out of a position they didn't reason themselves into. I'm sure the minimum wage advocates are busy spinning up a narrative on how the Denmark study is flawed.
"...or if perhaps they weren't able to find the impact because the older methods were always inherently flawed"
The older studies generally restricted themselves to restaurant workers and were covering minimum wage increases that were close to the area effective minimum wage.
This story has a very unfortunate qualifier =
"If Buzzfeed is Correct..... CNN is threatening to dox the wrong guy"
But elevated minimum wages are only Step 1.
Step 2: Outlaw the firing of any existing workers.
Step 3: Mandate minimum hours.
Step 4: Mandate minimum number of staff.
Step 5: Delightful euro-style unemployment, especially for young people, when firms close, never hire anyone, or otherwise eliminate any payroll.
The thing is, wages are tied to productivity. The more productive a worker is, then more he'll be paid in general. So rather than your very complicated multi-step proposal, I think the solution is much simpler and more direct. Mandate that workers increase their productivity. Everything else will follow.
Yeah, and we know where that goes; "They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work"
"Seattle's $15 Minimum Wage is Hurting the Workers It's Intending to Help"
Wait! Workers? This was passed to allow politicians to show they 'do something' and love the workers. It was passed to help union organizing. It was done to gain votes for left wingers.
Who the hell brought in comments about workers??!
The Washington Post hates you all soooo much.
Well, double dumbass on them!
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OK, THE ARTICLE SHOWS A PICTURE OF MCDONALD'S. THE FOOD IS KILLING OTHERS AND ALL THE EMPLOYEES CAN THINK OF IS HIGHER WAGES AND THE OWNER LOWER WAGES?
I SHOULD HAVE SAID KILLING ALL.
youre blaming a fourth generation mcdonalds employee for the brainchild of ray mcdonald
this is the dark-side of entrepreneurship, bub
People choose to eat at McDonalds, if the food is killing people then it is those persons' faults for eating there as a regular meal choice. McDonalds is just an entity selling cheeseburgers, if people moved on to kale and chicken wraps McDonalds would be sure to start selling those. Personal responsibility is what you should be thinking about.
Government proponents of a minimum wage increase are trying to get a tax revenue increase - they sell it to the stupid as if it is compassionate legislation. But if they were sincerely compassionate they would lower taxes on the lower-waged workers as taxation is the only thing they have sole control over. Everything else they try to control is met with counter-actions (some of which are obviously foreseeable and others which are not).
It may be hurting "the workers" but it is advancing the future of robotics and AI so all is good.
It's been widely reported that there are big problems with this ONE study. Before you buy in to 'keep the peons starving because it's good for our country' , at least educate yourself to the debunking of this ONE study. It has major flaws that would normally cause an article's author to rethink his support of it....So I call 'FAKE NEWS!' Wow! That felt good!
John B. Egan|7.6.17 @ 5:18PM|#
"It's been widely reported that there are big problems with this ONE study. Before you buy in to 'keep the peons starving because it's good for our country' , at least educate yourself to the debunking of this ONE study. It has major flaws that would normally cause an article's author to rethink his support of it....So I call 'FAKE NEWS!' Wow! That felt good!"
This ONE study repeats what has been found many, many times. The 'big problems' are those when lefties select data (cherry picking is big on the left) to claim that it's not true if you hold your mouth a certain way.
IOWs, you're full of it.
That's a bingo!
"Labor is simply another cost for any business, and when the price of something goes up, we tend to buy less of it."
A truth with billions of exceptions. The least revelatory truism in history.
"Studies that downplay the effects of minimum wage hikes have mostly focused on teenagers and fast food workers. But the study at the University of Washington paper looks at the impact on workers spanning all ages and all demographics"
The defining meta-study focuses on all age demographics of fast food and found teenagers fare worse, young adults better and old adults better. Pan-regional studies show mixed to positive results.
"The lesson from Seattle that all cities should pay attention to is that forcing business to pay more hurts the very people minimum wage hikes are supposed to help."
Only #1 at the offset, #2 in cases where workers are laid off. Obviously this practice applies mainly to marginal workers. Ever see a Wendy's with just one worker? If you have, there's a cheapskate management that behaves heedless of marginal demand.
All these laws tend toward producing a social-good econosphere, rather than a winner-takes-all, profit maximizing one.
Minimum wage is as prevalent, necessary, just and vindicated as policy gets. The odd layoff can apply outward and upward to cover scarce hours. A short-order $4/hr wage slave is simply trapped. No market will develop to cater to him until he can live in a disk-drive and commute over fiber-optics.
In the short term it hurts a bit as companies settle in and figure out how to balance the new costs. In the long term it helps until inflation catches up again.
Devastator|7.8.17 @ 1:50PM|#
"In the short term it hurts a bit as companies settle in and figure out how to balance the new costs. In the long term it helps until inflation catches up again."
Yes, you idiot; they 'figure it out' by firing the people this is supposed to help.
Lefty imbecile alert!
Yeehaw - kick the poor! Those goddamned filthy proles don't DESERVE to live indoors or eat. If they started paying the help enough to live without gubmint support, the price of a latte at Fancy McPricey's cafe might go up by $0.25! Good god, we can't have that. And worse yet, those lazy, foul-smelling, deplorable redneck menials might start thinking - or even, gasp, acting! - like they are human beings. We just can't have that.
Hey pal, this ain't WaPo. Best you be able to back up your poggy pablum.
First, minimum wage is for lately unskilled inexperienced labor. It is not intended to be, nor is it the median wage. Definitely not in Seattle. Second, artificially high wage floors result in reduction of employee hours. The snide example you give about how to account for the added cost of labor is laughable. You clearly know nothing of labor costing, specially in restaurant management.
Restaurants typically have thin margins, and you can't continually raise the cost of your menu to compensate for higher overhead before eventually people just stop buying your food.
People who work mimic wage jobs need to develop skills so they become more valuable to their employer. How much value do you think a Walmart greeter has?
(Con't.)
With an artificially high wage floor, these entry level jobs are going away. But please keep up your nonsensical ranting. I'm sure it will be of great solace to those people that individuals, such as yourself
, have sent to the unemployment line.
Argyle Pajamas|7.6.17 @ 11:31PM|#
"Yeehaw - kick the poor!"
Yeehaw, one more proggy idiot spouting lies!
Stuff it up your ass.
Slinging names at people never proves your point, it just makes you look like you can't come up a credible argument.
Devastator|7.8.17 @ 1:48PM|#
"Slinging names at people never proves your point, it just makes you look like you can't come up a credible argument."
Supporting those who claim the intent is to "kick the poor" proves you're a fucking lefty asshole.
Is that clear, lefty asshole?
Todd Krainin, you need to do another pass while editing.
The article makes the mistake of presuming is meant to 'help' the workers. The forces behind these care nothing for those in the herd of peasants on the street. The MW is factored into Union contracts, public and private. It raises any and all costs of doing business, forcing more of the economy underground. I swapped an old car to a friend to give his son and he did a lot of work around my house I can't do. A neighbor drops her girls off at another mother's and buys that woman's groceries and the husband mows their yard. The more $ they try to squeeze, the more will slip into the no cash world.
I think the study this article references was not carefully put together. See a persuasive rebuttal here:
http://www.seattletimes.com/op.....n-seattle/
And I notice the original study report, and your article, are all over the net when searching for news of $15 minimum wage, but counter arguments aren't. So much for liberal bias in the media!
Skeptical Jean
You go right ahead; proggies are nothing if no gullible.
The market will adjust to the higher pay, like it always does. There are always winners and losers.
Devastator|7.8.17 @ 1:47PM|#
"The market will adjust to the higher pay, like it always does. There are always winners and losers."
Yes, and the losers will be those the M/W was supposedly going to help.
glad you're so callous about the matter; may you lose your job.
BTW, 'devastator' (pathetic handle), we see slimy lefties like you sho up and drop comments as if none of us here ever thought of them!
My goodness, you must be real smart, says your mom.
You're a fucking ignoramus, just to make that clear.
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Washington State was voted the #1 business climate by CNBC today.
Employers will pay the $15 and it will be just fine.
All the "Potters" will just have to find another group to hate.
You got a problem with Harry Potter bud?
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