American Public Has High Hopes for New Trump Administration
The incoming administration has an opportunity—if it can meet expectations.
Having soured on lame-duck President Joe Biden, Americans are anticipating the inauguration of his successor—and predecessor—Donald Trump. Whether they're looking forward to the new administration eagerly or with dread depends, but Trump won the election with a higher vote tally than his opponent, so we can assume that more people than not are pulling for him. That doesn't mean the public thinks his path will be easy. Voters foresee success in some areas, with rockier prospects in others.
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Many Expect Things They Care About To Improve
"Expectations are highest that Trump will control illegal immigration, which 68% of U.S. adults predict he'll do," Gallup pollsters reported last week. "Smaller majorities believe he will reduce unemployment, keep the country safe from terrorism, improve the economy, keep the country out of war, cut people's taxes or reduce the crime rate."
Specifically, 60 percent think the return of Trump heralds reduced unemployment and improved safety from terrorism, 58 percent expect the economy to improve, 55 percent see the new president keeping the U.S. out of war, 54 percent foresee taxes reduced, and 51 percent anticipate lowered crime rates.
Fortunately for the incoming administration, the areas where Americans expect success correspond pretty closely with the public's priorities. The things people most care about feature highly in the list of those they expect to improve over the next four years.
"Both Democrats and Republicans cite immigration, the economy, inflation, and foreign policy as top issues," AP-NORC pollsters revealed in a poll published this week. Rising in importance by 12 points from a year ago, immigration was ranked as the most important issue by 47 percent of voters (69 percent of Republicans and 32 percent of Democrats). Foreign policy, which certainly involves the possibility of war, was down by three points from a year ago but still named as a top concern by 35 percent of respondents (40 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of Democrats). The economy, up by six points from a year ago, was cited as a top issue by 30 percent (35 percent of Republicans and 25 percent of Democrats).
Separately, the Tax Foundation found that "more than 80 percent of respondents think the US federal tax code needs reform." More than half say taxes are too high, while two-thirds call the tax code unfair.
Some Are Bound To Be Disappointed
That said, agreement goes only so far. According to AP-NORC, Republicans emphasize concern for government spending and debt while Democrats focus on climate and the environment. Both groups are likely to be disappointed on those points—at least, most people expect that to be the case.
"Majorities of Americans do not think Trump will heal political divisions in the country, improve the quality of the environment, improve the healthcare system, improve race relations, improve education, substantially reduce the federal budget deficit, improve conditions for minorities and the poor, or reduce the prices of groceries and other items," adds Gallup.
That's probably a realistic assessment. There's certainly no real national consensus over environmental issues at a time when President Biden is spending some of his last moments in the White House issuing executive orders that prevent future oil and gas exploration along much of the U.S. coastline in an obvious effort to thwart President-elect Trump's plans to "drill, baby, drill." During the presidential campaign, voters generally trusted Trump over Biden/Harris on energy issues and, despite the incumbent's last-gasp efforts, climate will be deemphasized under the new administration.
Similarly, while concern over federal deficits and the growing national debt are well-founded, there's not a lot of room for optimism. Trump showed little inclination towards restraint on spending during his first term, and Biden took that as a hold-my-beer challenge when he succeeded Trump. The federal government has been spending beyond its means for decades. Under both Republican and Democratic administrations, deficits have grown, topping $1.8 trillion in 2024. Federal debt and, importantly, debt held by the public rather than owed by the government to itself, have correspondingly soared as a percentage of GDP. This is a recipe for disaster, but unlikely to be resolved soon.
As for other issues for which Americans surveyed by Gallup predict little chance of success, some, such as political divisions and race relations, are cultural matters that evolve over time. Politicians might make them worse, but social tensions that developed over decades aren't going to be healed by soothing words from an elected official.
It also took the government decades to break education and healthcare with meddling, centralization, and generally bad policy. Americans are addressing education concerns themselves by embracing alternatives to public schools. As for healthcare, well, few politicians are eager to tell the public that it can't have the cost-free medical utopia that it desires. Tweaks around the edges for appearances' sake will likely make things worse.
And while many people's budgets were ravaged by inflation, it's a lot easier to increase the money supply and devalue the dollar than it is to return prices to their earlier levels. Trump himself admitted last month of grocery prices that "it's hard to bring things down once they're up."
But soon-to-be President Donald Trump is fortunate that majorities of Americans generally expect him to be successful on the matters about which they care the most. That's why more people voted for him than for Kamala Harris, after all. The public expects him to make the world safer, saner, and more affordable in ways that matter to them.
Americans Expect Too Much of the Presidency
Of course, having expectations of a politician doesn't mean those expectations are reasonable or achievable. Biden is a one-term president because he disappointed the public. The arrogance of his administration played an enormous role in its downfall, including its insistence on imposing big costs and changes that were resented by millions of Americans, and on muzzling dissent. But also playing a role is the excessive weight people place on the presidency; the belief that an elected official should wield vast power, heal all ills, create prosperity, and protect the weak—but somehow without subverting freedom.
What Americans want from the president is impossible to achieve—even before we get to the damage most chief executives inflict on the country and themselves.
In his second term, President-elect Donald Trump has an opportunity to fulfill the optimistic hopes of the Americans who put him back in office. We'll see if he's up to the job.
