Battle of the Olds
Plus: Ozempic's potential, AOC shilling for Biden, "toxic masculinity" discourse, and more...
Biden still in crisis: Democratic Party turmoil seemingly knows no end.
New polling from YouGov hilariously shows that the only demographic group of Democrats that's seemingly still in favor of a Joe Biden presidential candidacy is—you guessed it—the over-65 crew.
Plurality of Dems now say Biden should step aside; seniors only demographic in support of massively unpopular incumbent pic.twitter.com/rpAtXiqeD9
— Chase Madar ???? (@ChaseMadar) July 9, 2024
Meanwhile, The Cook Political Report has made six changes to its rankings, showing former President Donald Trump leading to an even greater degree in several crucial swing states following Biden's abysmal debate performance.
The New York Times has proclaimed Biden's strategy to be "running out the clock." In other words: If he can weather this news cycle, and the next few weeks of fixation on his cognitive decline and possible dementia, he will leave the rest of his party in an even worse spot to replace him. Time will run out, which will cement his position on the ticket.
It's all profoundly embarrassing for Team Blue, which continues to do quite well in polling for contested Senate races but quite terribly when it comes to direct Trump-Biden polling matchups.
Trump's strategy: The big swing states this time around, from easiest to hardest to win, will be Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (those last two are a bit of a toss-up in terms of difficulty). Since winning Pennsylvania would be such a huge blow to Biden, Trump's campaign has been trying to figure out the best way to bolster their Rust Belt appeal, including by rocketing Sen. J.D. Vance (R–Ohio) to the top of the list for vice-presidential contenders. (Trump is likely to announce his pick for running mate sometime over the next week.)
As for the reinvented Republican platform—covered in yesterday's Roundup—it very clearly bears the marks of Trump's influence on the party. Softer on abortion and gay marriage but tougher on immigration and free trade, it feels like a massive departure from GOP platforms of the past. With, of course, the exception of 2020, in which the party simply chose not to release a platform.
Europe hates their politicians, too: I've covered the "double-hater" phenomenon in Roundup before: The idea that a presidential race will be decided not by fans of either candidate or clear partisans of either side, but by an ever-higher number of people who strongly dislike both candidates and feel comfortable plugging their nose and just getting their voting over with in order to vote against the worse one.
In both France and the U.K., The Wall Street Journal reports, "results are becoming more volatile from ballot to ballot" as party loyalty has declined across the board. "Support for established parties of the center right and center left is declining as voters turn to upstarts. New movements can rise fast but also fade quickly, as French President Emmanuel Macron's pro-business centrists have discovered."
"Political fragmentation is making countries such as France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands less governable just as geopolitical pressures on Europe are growing," notes the Journal. Meanwhile, polling by Ipsos indicates voters on the continent are more dissatisfied than satisfied with democracy, and groups like Marine Le Pen's National Rally and Germany's AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) are growing in success and influence.
Scenes from New York: Is New York becoming a battleground state? asks Politico. Four years ago, Biden won the state by 23 points (!) but this year, "public polls over the last four months found Biden's lead had winnowed to just 8 points across New York—an unusually narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1" and two polls from a House swing district basically found a tie between the two presidential candidates.
QUICK HITS
- "Since his feeble debate performance, multiple polls have shown that both Mr. Biden's approval rating and his chance of beating Mr. Trump have markedly dropped from their already shaky levels," writes the editorial board of The New York Times. "In response, he has adopted a favorite theme of the floundering politician, insisting that the polls are wrong in showing that his presidency is historically unpopular."
- Both Microsoft and Apple have scrapped plans to take board positions at OpenAI. "Regulators in Europe and the US had expressed concern about Microsoft's sway over OpenAI, applying pressure on one of the world's most valuable companies to show that it's keeping the relationship at arm's length," reports Bloomberg.
- Interesting dive into whether Ozempic and other weight-loss drugs could be effective in fighting addiction (as well as a bit of media criticism as to how these drugs have been covered in the press).
- Lol:
To make up for this heinous crime, I will refrain from having omelette for a week pic.twitter.com/FecxG8Rjmg
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 10, 2024
- "Why Is the Squad Backing Biden So forcefully?" asks Nia Prater at Intelligencer.
- New Just Asking Questions, on boys and men and "toxic masculinity" discourse:
