Trump Had a Point About NATO Free-Riding Off American Defense
It’s true that the U.S. pays too much of the continent’s defense bills even as it’s going broke.
European politicians are indignant that former and possibly future U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to deny protection to NATO allies that don't meet their defense spending obligations. Worse, he said he'd "encourage" Russia to do its worst if they didn't pay up, making the pact sound more like a protection racket than an alliance. But while Trump managed, typically, to frame the matter in the nastiest way possible, he's right that many European countries free-ride on American military might.
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Nice Little Country You Got There…
At a weekend rally in Conway, South Carolina, Trump told of a supposed gathering during his presidency of NATO leaders discussing the alliance's target for members to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense:
One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, "Well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?" I said, "You didn't pay. You're delinquent?" He said, "Yes, let's say that happened."
"No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills."
The continent's prickly officials immediately flew into a frenzy over the threat.
"NATO cannot be an a la carte military alliance, it cannot be a military alliance that works depending on the humor of the president of the U.S.," huffed European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.
The problem for Borrell and company is that Trump has a point. Even after Russia invaded Ukraine, many NATO members remain less allies than dependencies sheltering under the U.S. military umbrella.
European Countries, American Defense
"In 2022, seven Allies met the guideline of spending 2% of their Gross Domestic Product on defence," according to the most recent NATO Secretary General's Annual Report. "In 2014, only three Allies met the guideline. The United States accounted for 54% of the Allies' combined GDP and 70% of combined defence expenditure."
NATO currently has 31 member countries. The seven meeting their obligations in the report are: the U.S. (3.46 percent), Greece (3.54), Lithuania (2.47), Poland (2.42), the U.K. (2.16), Estonia (2.12), and Latvia (2.07). Germany, widely considered the economic powerhouse of Europe, came in at 1.49 percent of GDP and France spent 1.89 percent, though its nuclear armory, like that of the UK, is a next-level deterrent. In 2011, the Netherlands (1.64) actually eliminated its entire tank force to save money, only to partially backtrack after it became apparent that its forces were hobbled by the move.
"The British military—the leading U.S. military ally and Europe's biggest defense spender—has only around 150 deployable tanks and perhaps a dozen serviceable long-range artillery pieces," The Wall Street Journal reported in December. "France, the next biggest spender, has fewer than 90 heavy artillery pieces, equivalent to what Russia loses roughly every month on the Ukraine battlefield. Denmark has no heavy artillery, submarines or air-defense systems. Germany's army has enough ammunition for two days of battle."
What's remarkable is that NATO was formed to counter the old Soviet Union and its puppet-state allies but has since absorbed most of those now-democratic countries. This expanded alliance currently stands against Russia and (maybe?) Belarus. Russia possesses the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, but otherwise poses no particular threat to wealthy, industrialized countries—assuming they take their own defense seriously, which is not what they've been doing.
Europe Could Defend Itself
While a giant of geography, Russia's economy ranks as the sixth largest in the world, behind Germany, according to the CIA's World Factbook. Though Germany's 84 million people are less numerous than Russia's 142 million, the wealthier country could, all by itself, field a formidable military. Importantly, German troops are armed to German levels of precision and honesty, not with whatever products of sloppy Russian engineering survive a trip through that country's remarkably corrupt supply chain.
Germany doesn't exist in a vacuum and wouldn't have to burden itself with Russian levels of military spending if relatively prosperous neighbors such as France and Italy (1.51 percent of GDP spent on defense) also took their responsibilities seriously. Some of them seem to perceive a need to do so.
"We have to realize it's not a given that we are in peace. And that's why we are preparing for a conflict with Russia," Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer warned last month at a NATO gathering.
Fair enough. But why should 70 percent of those preparations be paid by the United States, which is across the Atlantic Ocean on another continent?
America Is Running Out of Money To Spend
That's an important question since the U.S. is in a financial hole of its own digging. As I write, U.S. national debt is officially $34.2 trillion. Two weeks ago, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned the U.S. is maybe 10 years from a "rebellion" in global markets against its borrowing habits. That's even worse than the 20 years the Penn Wharton Budget Model gives the U.S. as a best-case scenario before the U.S. defaults with consequences "across the U.S. and world economies." Even Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns that debt is "unsustainable," which is bureaucratese for "looming disaster."
At some point, the U.S. government will have to cut way back on spending. A logical place for cuts is in the hundreds of billions of dollars spent for defense, much of which benefits other prosperous countries.
"The United States spends more on national defense than China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, and Ukraine—combined," the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which promotes fiscal discipline, noted last April.
The U.S. shouldn't abruptly abandon allies, let alone suggest, as Trump did, that they have nice little countries and it'd be a shame if something happened to them. But it's past time to put NATO members on notice that American taxpayers won't continue picking up the tab for European defense needs.
If Admiral Rob Bauer thinks Russia is a threat, maybe the Netherlands could buy a few tanks. And it could get him a fleet to go with his rank; right now he's admiraling over six frigates and four submarines.
Perhaps the message was received; European Parliament President Roberta Metsola now admits the continent needs to "get practical about our strategic autonomy."
