Brickbat: Making It Up As We Go Along

A report by the New Brunswick, Canada, auditor general's office found that the provincial Department of Public Health could not provide documentation to support any of a sample of 33 policy recommendations it made during the COVID-19 pandemic. "The department was unable to provide requested documentation, acknowledging that they 'did not create a compendium or a repository of all of the scientific articles, papers, publications and analyses it consulted during the pandemic and therefore we cannot provide a fulsome and detailed list of all of the evidence consulted and used when recommendations were being formulated,'" according to the report. According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, the report did not say what those 33 decisions were or what percentage of total decisions they represented.

Comments

[Don't look at me!]

They pulled it all out of their asses.
“The Science “ !

[Earth-based Human Skeptic]

FYTW.

[Medulla Oblongata]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/expert-shows-us-why-trust-the-experts-was-always-bad-advice/ar-AA1md5rj?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fba3ea1437ef41ad8001fdae2a27d408&ei=96

“If you’re a public health person and you’re trying to make a decision, you have this very narrow view of what the right decision is. And that is something that will save a life; it doesn’t matter what else happens. So you attach infinite value to stopping the disease and saving a life. You attach zero value to whether this actually totally disrupts people’s lives, ruins the economy, and has many kids kept out of school in a way that they never quite recover from.”

On one level, this sounds utterly inhumane: Who the heck thinks only about stopping the spread of germs and not even give a thought to how quarantines, school closures, and stay-at-home orders will ruin people’s lives and destroy communities?

Well, that’s what infectious disease specialists do. They are specialists. And in a big system, like the U.S. government, there is a place for monomaniacal specialists. You have Russian intelligence specialists, legal specialists, network security specialists, traffic fatality experts, severe weather experts, and so on. They all obsess over the particular problem they've been hired to think about.

The problem is putting those specialists in charge. A real leader listens to those specialists, then listens to other specialists, and then considers the bigger picture, and then makes decisions.

The same is true for individuals and families. Every parent should listen to experts when considering what is best for their family, but no parent should simply defer to the experts.

But in 2020 and 2021, it somehow became conventional wisdom that policymakers, families, and individuals should simply defer to the infectious disease experts like Collins.

For instance, look at how prominent liberal voices reacted when President Donald Trump suggested he might not defer to doctors’ prescriptions for lockdown.

The argument was that policymakers should let infectious disease experts make our public policy during a pandemic. This was the standard position held by the news media, and Joe Biden regularly echoed this position.

In the summer of 2020, Biden’s DNC ran an ad attacking Trump’s call to reopen schools in the fall because the “experts” said schools should close. Biden would regularly defer to Anthony Fauci.

Collins’s frank admission doesn’t show that we should never listen to experts. It shows that we should never let them make our decisions for us.

[Torguud]

Thanks!

[mad.casual]

Well, that’s what infectious disease specialists do. They are specialists.

No. That's what an infectious disease computer program does. Infectious disease specialists are humans with free thought, social norms, and ethical obligations. "In my expert opinion, no one should've died as the result of my actions." is not a justification of those actions and, for a human able to perceive that outcome post hoc, is not sane. Even the computer, when fed the results and compared to it's predictions would simply assess "The predictions were wrong."

[George]

You are dead-on correct. It is the exact same mistake Richard Neustadt and Harvey Feinberg identified in the after-action report they prepared for HEW Secretary Joseph Caliafano in the aftermath of the 1976-7 Swine Flu fiasco. The National Academies Press published it as a book titled "The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease," which you can read for free at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25032342/. The sad thing is that almost all of the mistakes identified in the 1976/7 response were REPEATED in 2020, with a similar disease.

Health economist Victor Fuchs strongly warned in his book, "Who Shall Live? Health, Economics, and Social Choice," that the medical and public health communities have a serious set of cognitive blinders in that members almost ALWAYS take a monotechnic view of issues, with health as the only value in their decisions. I warned in a paper (Avery GH., Lawley M, Garrett S, Caldwell, B, Durr MP, Abraham D, Lin F, DeLaurentis PC, Peralta ML, et al, Site Planning Team (2008) "Planning For Pandemic Influenza: Lessons from the Experiences of Thirteen Indiana Counties," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management; 5(1): Article 29. Available at: http://www.bepress.com/jhsem/vol5/iss1/29) on planning for EXACTLY such an epidemic that the cognitive blinders went beyond simply a monotechnic focus on health. George Annas did much the same in his earlier criticism of the Model Public Health Emergency Powers Act, which he noted focused on health issues to the point of completely ignoring the fundamental Civil Rights outlined in the Constitution's Bill of Rights.

A problem in the public health community is that it suffers from the problems of the academic community. Academics tend to be insecure and demand consensus - a problem that I think Thomas Kuhn UNDERSTATES in his canonical work "The Structure of a Scientific Revolution." Dissenting voices have trouble getting published (I experienced this with work that found that local leadership, not funding levels, determines public health performance - something that was rejected without review by editors of public health journals who had advocated for greater funding, but was accepted and expedited into print by a respected general health policy journal), getting hired or given tenure in academia, or getting their research funded when it challenges the existing intellectual monoculture. Agency heads and grant project officers tend to support funding for work that reinforces their own positions rather than challenges their ideas. All of this creates a sterile intellectual environment that discourages or suppresses ideas outside of the box of intellectual orthodoxy.

[Adans smith]

They are the science.

[Fist of Etiquette]

...the provincial Department of Public Health could not provide documentation to support any of a sample of 33 policy recommendations it made during the COVID-19 pandemic.

YOU THINK THE PRIESTS WERE MAKING IT UP? Heretics.

[Chumby]

No amnesty.

[Idaho-Bob]

No mercy

[Ajsloss]

No raccoon dogs.

[Earth-based Human Skeptic]

No bat soup for you!

[mad.casual]

JFC even the admission is disingenuous drivel delivered with a shitgrin.

Auditor: Can you give us *any* document to support anything you did?
Fucksticks: Well, we didn't build a warehouse to contain the Library of Alexandria-sized amount of literature we poured through, so we can't give you a single citation.

[Minadin]

Former NIH director Francis Collins:

"As a guy living inside the Beltway, feeling the sense of crisis, trying to decide what to do in some situation room in the White House with people who had data that was incomplete … we weren't really considering the consequences in communities that were not New York City or some other big city ...

If you're a public health person, and you're trying to make a decision, you have this very narrow view of what the right decision is, and that is something that will save a life. Doesn't matter what else happens, so you attach infinite value to stopping the disease and saving a life. You attach zero value to whether this actually totally disrupts people's lives, ruins the economy, and has many kids kept out of school in a way that they never might quite recover from. Collateral damage."

https://twitter.com/erichhartmann/status/1740203189717369309

[Nazi-Chipping Warlock]

And so now he's going to prison for destroying the economy, right?

[MWAocdoc]

AND ... it didn't even save any lives. AND ... they were warned by decades of pandemic planners that it WOULD NOT save any lives, but that it WOULD devastate the social fabric and the economy. So the bigwigs in closed rooms not only focused on an impossible goal but they ignored the science they claimed they were following.

[Idaho-Bob]

It was step one. Step two will be climate crisis lockdowns, 15-minute cities, social credit scoring, etc. Half of Americans still think all of the Covid protocols were the right course of action and are trying to enforce masks at this moment.

These people are true believers.

[Earth-based Human Skeptic]

Fuck them.

Unfortunately that includes many of my neighbors who I still try to consider as friends. Otherwise intelligent and reasonable, but bat shit crazy about COVID.

[Agammamon]

The problem I have is not that they did this stuff in the early months of the pandemic - I get what that guy is saying and understand where he's coming from there.

Its that when it started to become clear that there was little danger from Covid (and that many of their mandates were ineffective) that all they did was double down on the **YOU MUST OBEY US FOR YOUR SAFETY!** bullshit.

They ignore the last part while pleading understanding for the first part. They conveniently forget that they *turned themselves* from 'savior' to villain in order to garner power and prestige - and THAT is what everyone is mad at them for.

But they want to pretend we're the unreasonable ones, mad at them for 'doing their best in the face of unclear data'.

[MWAocdoc]

I DO have a problem with what they did in the early months of the pandemic! Do you think what they did in those closed rooms was done in a vacuum? Do you think that there was no previous science for them to rely on at that point? Do you think that they were suddenly assaulted by a previously unthought of enemy without reams and volumes of details already in their hands? EVERY word, every study, every volume, every document, every detail advised them NOT to do what they did and NOT to decide what they decided.

[Minadin]

And, even if the science supported everything that they wanted to do, most of their actions were completely outside of the legal scope of their authority. Some of it was so far outside that it should have been laughable. Eviction moratoriums from the CDC? Curfews from the County Health? etc.

[George]

Collins was finishing medical school during the Swine Flu fiasco. He SHOULD have been well aware of the problem.

[Art Stone]

I can’t point to a specific source, but I remember reading about the decision at the CDC 6 feet was the appropriate distance for people to stay separated.

It was done by having a group of people in a room each guessing what they thought the right answer was and then coming up with an average. This is not science.

[MWAocdoc]

The average sneeze or cough particle in a closed small room with no air circulation will settle about three feet from the source. Six feet is double that. Although consensus opinions are not "science" it is not true that there was no science behind the recommendation. It still doesn't make any sense at all, since the people it was meant to apply to are almost never in small rooms together where there is no air circulation but experts are gonna spurt come hell or high water. It's what they do.

[Agammamon]

Where do you get that info?

And the particles will evaporate very quickly, the vapor and breezes transporting particles much further than three feet.

In addition, I'm pretty sure my sneezes can travel a couple feet on their own. My monitor has flecks of spittle on it from reading some of our more infamous commenters on here;)

[MWAocdoc]

I get if from years of training and experience and reviewing new research over a couple of decades as an epidemiologist and doctor of medicine with a masters degree in public health. If you want to review the literature to dispute my opinion, knock yourself out, but thanks for at least asking ...

[George]

Bischoff WE, Swett K, Leng I, Peters TR. Exposure to influenza virus aerosols during routine patient care. J Infect Dis. 2013;207:1037–1046.

Tang JW, Liebner TJ, Craven BA, Settles GS. A schlieren optical study of the human cough with and without wearing masks for aerosol infection control. J R Soc Interface. 2009;6:S727–S736.

[BYODB]

From a cough, perhaps, from a sneeze no. I've seen exactly one study that suggests otherwise.

[MWAocdoc]

I didn't say it was GOOD science. I was just disputing the assertion that there was NO science behind the number "six feet." In fact I specifically pointed out that, even WITH some scientific evidence it was a dumb rule.

[Ajsloss]

Considering that it was 6’ in the U.S., but two meters (6’6”) everywhere else… (6” can create drastically different results, like the difference between having a child and not).

[Henweigh]

Ha Ha Ha!
I almost missed that.

[Medulla Oblongata]

They based billions of dollars of GDP for COVID closures on a model that some grad students whipped out over a long weekend?

https://www.sph.umn.edu/news/modeling-covid-19-for-minnesota/

On March 25, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz presented two scenarios describing the state’s future outlook related to the COVID-19 outbreak. One projection showed that cases would peak around April 26 in Minnesota if there were no mitigating steps to slow the virus. The death toll in this scenario could reach 74,000. The other scenario showed a time frame with significant and staged mitigations in place that pushed the peak to about June 29 and projected deaths in the 50,000–55,000 range.

Before Friday, March 20, Marina Kirkeide, who graduated from the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering in 2019, was a School of Public Health part-time research assistant working on HPV transmission for Kulasingam. On a gap year before starting Medical School at the University in fall 2020, Kirkeide also had a second job as a lab tech at St. Paul’s Regions Hospital. That Friday, Kulasingam called her and two other research assistants and asked if anyone was available to “work through the day and night” to get a COVID-19 model to Governor Walz the following Monday. They all jumped at the chance.

“I don’t think a lot of researchers get to work on something over the weekend and have public figures talk about it and make decisions based on it three days later,” says Kirkeide, who had to leave her hospital job to focus solely on modeling. She feels the responsibility of such a big project, too. “[In this situation] you don’t have the time to validate as much as you normally would. You want to get it right the first time. And your work has to be really, really quick.”

[MWAocdoc]

This is even more egregious when you consider that the pandemic response plans that had been formulated over several decades by experts in virology and epidemiology around the world were summarily dismissed by governments and official agencies shortly after the pandemic became apparent for no good reason other than panic, lust for power, or both. To the severe devastation of the social fabric, the world and national economies and what was left of the shrinking liberties of The People in places that used to treasure it.

[mad.casual]

Not entirely clear if it's not redundant but the pandemic response plans and guidance that violated basic understanding and premises down to fundamental rationality. Just plainly idiotic hysteria like Ron "MOAR TESTING!" Bailey saying, "Sure, we have no idea how accurate the tests are or if they're even testing for COVID but you can be sure we need more of it to conquer the pandemic."

[George]

Exactly. My team was paid a quarter-million dollars in 2007 by the Indiana State Department of Health to develop healthcare surge capacity planning guidance for Indiana providers. The FIRST point we made was that providers MUST remain aware of the fact that the epidemic was NOT the only condition requiring care.

In February 2020 I had a Cologuard test result come back positive, meaning a presumptive diagnosis of colon cancer. It took until late July to get a confirmatory colonoscopy, because despite the presumptive cancer diagnosis IU Health considered it an "elective" procedure under their COVID guidelines. Thank God it was actually a false positive! I have also heard of places that would not provide angiograms or angioplasty to patients with symptoms of coronary artery blockages unless they were having an active heart attack, Of course, outcomes of revascularization are better BEFORE damage to heart muscle can occur in a heart attack, but COVID guidelines called them "elective." An MMWR article 9https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a4.htm#Discussion) noted 12% of US adults reported delays in obtaining " urgent or emergency care" by June 30, 2020 - only the first three months of the epidemic!

[mad.casual]

Not entirely clear if it’s not redundant but the pandemic response plans and guidance that violated basic understanding and premises down to fundamental rationality... was worse, IMO (Goddamned edit button).

It's one thing for the navigator in the back seat to flip out, lose all sense of direction, and have no clue where we're headed. The fact that lots of pilots in the front seat took that as their cue to flip out, lose all sense of direction themselves, and slam their local communities and businesses into bankruptcies and supply chain disruptions was as bad if not worse.

[MWAocdoc]

I question that that's what happened. In my opinion, our Fearless Leaders panicked at the first shock, and then out of that panic gave free rein to the "lust for power" crowd to run with the lockdowns. The lust for power officials then used the panic they subsequently promoted to stifle most remaining resistance.

[Medulla Oblongata]

But I'm told they're ALWAYS NET POSITIVE!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/cali-becomes-first-state-to-offer-health-insurance-to-all-undocumented-immigrants/ar-AA1md9q4?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=fba3ea1437ef41ad8001fdae2a27d408&ei=118

California will welcome the new year by becoming the first state to offer health insurance for all undocumented immigrants.

Starting Jan. 1, all undocumented immigrants, regardless of age, will qualify for Medi-Cal, California's version of the federal Medicaid program for people with low incomes.

Previously, undocumented immigrants were not qualified to receive comprehensive health insurance but were allowed to receive emergency and pregnancy-related services under Medi-Cal as long as they met eligibility requirements, including income limits and California residency in 2014.

In 2015, undocumented children were able to join Medi-Cal under a bill signed by then-Gov. Jerry Brown. In 2019, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed into law an expansion of full-scope Medi-Cal access for young adults ages 19 through 25, regardless of citizenship or immigration status. Access was then further expanded to allow older adults aged 50 and older to receive full benefits, also regardless of immigration status.

The final expansion going into effect Jan. 1 will make approximately 700,000 undocumented residents between ages 26 and 49 eligible for full coverage, according to California State Sen. María Elena Durazo.

"This historic investment speaks to California's commitment to health care as a human right," Durazo said in a statement in May.

[George]

They can't afford to pay for Medi-Cal as it exists, much less if expanded

[George]

In fact, as many of us in the field who CAN be deemed experts in public health emergency preparedness had pointed out, evidence-based Public Health practice would have REJECTED many of the policies that were pushed by the establishment.

George Annas, in criticism of a proposed Model Public Health Emergency Powers Act over 20 years ago, warned of this very problem and its threat to civil rights. I also warned of the problems of wrongly framing the problem in a paper I published in Public Administration Review two decades ago discussing the federal bioterrorism preparedness program, a paper that has been widely cited in the research literature. For that matter, science fiction author John Ringo issued the same warnings in his novel, "The Last Centurion."