U.S. Faces Risks in Spreading Israel-Hamas Conflict

Americans are likely to be blamed no matter what happens.

If you suspect that, with Hamas's brutal attack on Israel added to the Ukraine war and other global conflicts, matters worldwide are heating up in unfortunate ways for all concerned including Americans, the U.S. State Department wants to tell you: You're right.

Americans at Risk Everywhere

"Due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution," warns a recent travel advisory.

Where should Americans "exercise increased caution?" Well, it's a worldwide advisory, so everywhere. That's understandable given that preexisting tensions with Russia and its allies almost pale in comparison to the growing stresses following Hamas's atrocities against Israeli citizens. As fighting rages, other nations are being drawn in, including traditional Israeli ally, the U.S.

"On Wednesday, the USS Carney, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, opened fire on four cruise missiles and 15 airborne drones for nine hours, far longer than the military first said," reports military news site Task & Purpose. "Citing an American official familiar with the matter, the path and trajectory of the missiles had them en route to Israel. The missiles were fired by the Houthi rebels in Yemen, according to the Department of Defense, and would be the first attempt by any group in Yemen to strike at Israel in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 terror attacks by Hamas two weeks ago."

There's a lot to unpack there. But it's not the full story.

The U.S. has two carrier strike groups, plus an amphibious ready group (basically a light aircraft carrier plus support ships and a Marine Expeditionary Unit) operating in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf. Given the Iranian government's close connections to groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, the possibility that it helped plan the October 7 attack, its praise for the day's bloodshed, and threats to directly intervene, the military presence could be taken as a warning that the U.S. will defend its partner against further aggression. It also necessarily puts Americans in harm's way.

"U.S. troops have been repeatedly attacked in Iraq and Syria in recent days, U.S. officials said on Thursday, as Washington is on heightened alert for activity by Iran-backed groups with regional tensions soaring during the Israel-Hamas war," notes Reuters.

A strong case can be made that military commitments to other countries are unwise—and has been made at least as far back as Thomas Jefferson's warning against "entangling alliances" in his 1801 inaugural address, and before him George Washington's caution against "permanent alliances" in his 1796 farewell address. But Washington added, "let me not be understood as capable of patronizing infidelity to existing engagements," and the U.S. definitely has existing engagements with Israel.

America's Close Partnership with Israel

"U.S.-Israel security cooperation—a critical part of the bilateral relationship—is multifaceted," the Congressional Research Service noted in a report published last month. "U.S. law requires the executive branch to take certain actions to preserve Israel's 'qualitative military edge,' or QME, and expedites aid and arms sales to Israel in various ways."

That relationship does not include a mutual defense pact, though one has recently been a subject of discussions between the two countries. That means the U.S. has no obligation to put boots on the ground in Israel, though the death of a reported 32 Americans and abduction of roughly a dozen more at the hands of Hamas makes some presence inevitable, if only to attempt the rescue of those still being held hostage after the release of Judith and Natalie Raanan. While briefly visiting Israel last week, President Biden was photographed in the company of U.S. special forces.

No matter how large the U.S. presence when Israel enters Gaza to strike at Hamas, Americans are likely to suffer blowback for what is guaranteed to be a messy operation because the two countries are closely inked in reality and public perceptions around the world. That link is the result of personal ties, Israel's strategic position, and its status as a free-ish democracy in a region where that's unicorn-level rare.

Urban Warfare and a Bigger Mess to Come

Just how messy Gaza operations will be was illustrated when a rocket apparently launched at Israel by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a Hamas ally, went off course and hit a hospital parking lot in Gaza City. Much of the world was quick to blame Israel before the story was corrected, sparking protests around a world that is frequently hostile towards Israel when it's not explicitly directing hate at Jews—and motivating that global travel advisory.

Soon after, an actual Israeli airstrike collapsed St. Porphyrius Greek Orthodox Church, killing civilians.

"With great sadness, I have now confirmed that several of my relatives…were killed at Saint Porphyrius Orthodox Church in Gaza, where they had been sheltering, when part of the complex was destroyed as the result of an Israeli airstrike," former Libertarian congressman Justin Amash, himself of Palestinian descent, announced. "Give rest, O Lord, to their souls, and may their memories be eternal."

No war leaves the innocent untouched. That's especially true now that Israel understandably vows that, after a sneak attack that left more than 1,400 of its citizens dead and over 200 in captivity, Hamas and its allies need to be eliminated. That necessitates urban combat in an environment where the population is used by Hamas as human shields. More civilian casualties are bound to join the thousands already struck down in Gaza.

"If Israel does what it says it wants to do—toppling Hamas and destroying Hamas military capabilities—we are talking about a Mosul all over the Gaza Strip," private-sector intelligence expert Michael Horowitz told The Wall Street Journal, comparing operations in Gaza City to U.S. efforts against ISIS in Iraq's second-largest city. "And it means really extensive civilian casualties and really extensive damage."

Limiting Involvement Is Wise, But the U.S. Is Already Exposed

The U.S. government is well-advised to keep American troops out of that fight, other than whatever is required to help recover Americans among the hostages. U.S. forces already have extensive experience with thankless wars and don't need to join another, however necessary, fought by another nation.

But America's close partnership with Israel, its provision of weapons and materiel to the country, and the strong military presence in the region mean that Americans will take some measure of blame for what happens next. That's in addition to existing hostility towards Americans as a result of our country's support of Ukraine after Russia's invasion, stresses with China, and growing turmoil on a globe that seems to be entering a new and more chaotic period.

You might want to bookmark that State Department advisory about "worldwide caution" due to "increased tensions." It's likely to be applicable for quite some time to come.