Weather and Climate Disasters Are Declining Globally

Increasing weather damage costs are not reliable evidence for climate change.

"The number of weather, climate and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change," declared World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Petteri Taalas last August. He was making the statement in conjunction with the release of a 2020 WMO report that claimed that the number of weather disasters has "increased by a factor of five over the 50-year period, driven by climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting." Keep that last caveat in mind. Below is a chart of the weather and climate disasters tallied in the WMO report.

(WMO)

The WMO report relies largely on the disaster data collected by the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) established in 1988 by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. The EM-DAT compiles and reports natural disasters from 1900 until today. However, the compilers acknowledge that the increase over time of the disasters included in the database could in part be the result of improved reporting around the globe.

Similarly, in 2020, the United Nations released its Human Cost of Disasters report, also using EM-DAT data, which parsed global disaster trends between 2000 and 2019. Below is that report's chart tracking the annual toll of disasters around the globe.

 

(UNDRR)

Unlike the WMO chart, the U.N. report included disasters caused by geophysical events including earthquakes, volcanoes, and landslides. Interestingly, six of the 10 deadliest disasters in the past 20 years were earthquakes, killing 657,000 out of 943,000 wiped out by those events (70 percent).

So what does the recent trend in weather and climate disasters look like if the geophysical ones are excluded from the EM-DAT dataset? University of Colorado political scientist Roger Pielke Jr. has done just that and updated it through 2021.

(Roger Pielke, Jr. )

"The data show that from 2000 to 2021, the number of global weather and climate disasters declined by about 10%, which is very good news and completely contrary to conventional wisdom," notes Pielke over at his new Honest Broker Substack. "The period since 2000 is viewed as the most reliable for data reliability, but it is safe to say that even since 2000, coverage has improved. So the 10% decline is possibly an underestimate." Note that even the WMO report shows a decline between the 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 periods.

Pielke properly cautions, "Of course, don't use data on disasters to say anything about changes in weather or climate — data on specific weather and climate variables are always more appropriate for tracking changes in climate." Data such as global temperature and precipitation trends. Humanity is losing more houses and infrastructure to bad weather largely because a richer and more populous world has put much more property in harm's way. Despite the alarmism about increasing weather disaster damages, toting up their costs cannot serve as reliable proof for man-made climate change.

Comments

[Chumby]

But we should keep enacting draconian policies that drive up energy prices using sources that have known negative effects on the environment.

[JesseAz]

This obvious proved global warming.

[Lillie R. Johnson]

Start working at home with G00gle! It’s by-far the best job I’ve had. Last Wednesday I got a brand new BMW since getting a check for $6474 this – 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was bringing home at least $77 per hour.

I work thr0ugh this link, G0 to tech tab for work detail.………__>>> Visit Here

[Sienna Schofield]

Sᴛᴀʀᴛ ᴡᴏʀᴋɪɴɢ ғʀᴏᴍ ʜᴏᴍᴇ! Gʀᴇᴀᴛ ᴊᴏʙ ғᴏʀ sᴛᴜᴅᴇɴᴛs, sᴛᴀʏ-ᴀᴛ-ʜᴏᴍᴇ ᴍᴏᴍs ᴏʀ ᴀɴʏᴏɴᴇ ɴᴇᴇᴅɪɴɢ ᴀɴ ᴇxᴛʀᴀ ɪɴᴄᴏᴍᴇ... Yᴏᴜ ᴏɴʟʏ ɴᴇᴇᴅ ᴀ ᴄᴏᴍᴘᴜᴛᴇʀ ᴀɴᴅ ᴀ ʀᴇʟɪᴀʙʟᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʀɴᴇᴛ HAD ᴄᴏɴɴᴇᴄᴛɪᴏɴ... Mᴀᴋᴇ $90 ʜᴏᴜʀʟʏ ᴀɴᴅ ᴜᴘ ᴛᴏ $12000 ᴀ ᴍᴏɴᴛʜ ʙʏ ғᴏʟʟᴏᴡɪɴɢ ʟɪɴᴋ ᴀᴛ ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴏᴛᴛᴏᴍ ᴀɴᴅ sɪɢɴɪɴɢ ᴜᴘ time... Yᴏᴜ ᴄᴀɴ ʜᴀᴠᴇ ʏᴏᴜʀ ғɪʀsᴛ ᴄʜᴇᴄᴋ ʙʏ ᴛʜᴇ ᴇɴᴅ ᴏғ ᴛʜɪs ᴡᴇᴇᴋ,go to tech tab for work detail,.........Visit Here

[Marjorie Finley]

Gʀᴇᴀᴛ ᴊᴏʙ ғᴏʀ sᴛᴜᴅᴇɴᴛs, sᴛᴀʏ-ᴀᴛ-ʜᴏᴍᴇ ᴍᴏᴍs ᴏʀ ᴀɴʏᴏɴᴇ ɴᴇᴇᴅɪɴɢ ᴀɴ ᴇxᴛʀᴀ ɪɴᴄᴏᴍᴇ... Yᴏᴜ ᴏɴʟʏ ɴᴇᴇᴅ ᴀ ᴄᴏᴍᴘᴜᴛᴇʀ ᴀɴᴅ ᴀ ʀᴇʟɪᴀʙʟᴇ ɪɴᴛᴇʀɴᴇᴛ ᴄᴏɴɴᴇᴄᴛɪᴏɴ... Mᴀᴋᴇ $90 ʜᴏᴜʀʟʏ ᴀɴᴅ ᴜᴘ ᴛᴏ $12000 ᴀ ᴍᴏɴᴛʜ ʙʏ ғᴏʟʟᴏᴡɪɴɢ ʟɪɴᴋ ᴀᴛ ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴏᴛᴛᴏᴍ ᴀɴᴅ sɪɢɴɪɴɢ ᴜᴘ... Yᴏᴜ ᴄᴀɴ ʜᴀᴠᴇ ʏᴏᴜʀ ғɪʀsᴛ ᴄʜᴇᴄᴋ ʙʏ ᴛʜᴇ ᴇɴᴅ ᴏғ ᴛʜɪs ᴡᴇᴇᴋ,go to tech tab for work detail,..........

Try it, you won’t regret it........CASHAPP NOW

[JimboJr]

Climate change is the "systemic racism" for the upper middle class whites. Well in a way, systemic racism is mainly for them (by them? FUBU anyone?), though they pretend its for colored people.

But same concept: its everywhere, responsible for everything bad possible, and we there is no limit to the amount of departments, govt money, and panic/outrage to be thrown at it.

I think its entertaining that when we had that year of bad hurricanes with Maria, Harvey etc, we heard no end of "its just going to keep getting worse! more hurricanes! more superstorms! every year!" Why do we not call these people on it? Every year since then has been BETTER in those terms, last year there was like one hurricane nothingburger. We need to be rubbing it in their faces when they are wrong.

Fun side note. The new one is climate change causing "worse pandemics!" as if pandemics are something that occur on a yearly basis. Even more hilarious in setting of the last one being caused by a virus manipulated to cause a pandemic.

[Suntzujr]

Their arrogance, dishonesty and dissembling has no limits; they just shift terms. In other words, when “global warming” doesn’t hold up, pivot to “global weirding.” Then, whatever happens they can just say it is because of whatever they want it to be because of, and no data or science changes that. If it gets too cold or polar ice actually increases, those become proof of global weirding.

[mtrueman]

"Why do we not call these people on it? "

Because there are cyclones. Just not ones that happen to occur in your neighborhood and aren't extensively covered by the bourgeois media. Last year, India, a large Asian country, was hard hit by a series of tropical cyclones. Global warming is a global phenomenon, not limited to the USA, unfortunately.

[con_fuse9]

Or we could stop trying to cherry pick data.

For example, California claims to have had 8112 in 2020. How many of those made it to the list as a disaster?
We had over 1000 tornadoes in 2020 (admittedly an outlier year), how are those accounted for?

Even if you take the first chart for granted, we are still doubling the number of disasters from 1980s. Why is that?

Bottom line, interesting analysis from Pielke (A political/sports professor), I'd like to see the peer review.

[Eric H.]

...interesting analysis from Pielke (A political/sports professor), I'd like to see the peer review.

Here you go...A bunch of climate related articles written by Pielke Jr. many peer reviewed.

https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=WtqpmdIAAAAJ&hl=en

AD-hom much?

[Unicorn Abattoir]

O/T - First there was Rush beer, now there's Rush pinball.

It's like Geddy Lee is turning into Gene Simmons. But admit it - you'd get the pinball machine if you could.

[Dillinger]

if I could? shopping right now.

[Janet]

Start working at home with G00gle! It’s by-far the best job I’ve had. Last Wednesday I got a brand new BMW since getting a check for $6474 this – 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was bringing home at least $77 per hour.

I work thr0ugh this link, G0 to tech tab for work detail.………_>>>>> CLICK HERE

[chemjeff radical individualist]

That actually looks kinda awesome.

[Zeb]

Yeah. Looks like a good pinball too.

[ElvisIsReal]

Metallica pinball was amazing. Dunno if it was by Stern, though.

[sarcasmic]

Oh come on Ron, you know better.

When it doesn't fit the narrative it's mere weather, and anyone who says anything about it is a dumbass who doesn't know the difference between weather and climate.

When it fits the narrative it's a "climate event," and anyone who makes the above weather comparison is a dumbass who ignores science.

[See Double You]

We had late snow fall this year - "that's evidence of climate change"

We had tons of early snow fall last year - "that's just weather"

The whole thing is fraudulent.

[JesseAz]

Climate change explained a warm December and a cold January in D.C./Virginia just this year.

[Make Democrats Extinct]

Everything that has or will ever happen is somehow an excuse for more Marxism.

[con_fuse9]

Everything that has or will ever happen is somehow and indication of more Marxism.

Trumplicans...

[JesseAz]

Lol. This describes you in the omicron thread to a T.

[Moonrocks]

Careful there. That's not what The Science says, and you know what happens to people that spread Dangerous Misinformation Contrary To The Science.

[Diane Reynolds (Paul.)]

Proof that Biden's Green New Deal is working.

[Ken Shultz]

Are we still allowed to post stories like this on social media?

[mtrueman]

We post pretty much everything Roger Pielke has to say. Is there another scientist who has more Reason coverage?

[Chipper Morning Wood------------------------------------------------------------------------------]

Hey, that's Roger Pielke Jr., not Roger Pielke. Roger Pielke is the climate change denier. This is his son, who is NOT a meterologist, but a noble political scientist, interested in just the facts, not in spinning a tale to fit a preconceived agenda.

[mtrueman]

Joseph Stalin, Martin Heidegger and JP Sartre were all trained as meteorologists and worked in the field. I'm still waiting for Social Media on this telling connection.

[Eric H.]

Pielke doesn't "deny" climate change...and for Jr., here is a list of climate papers he has written...yes, many peer reviewed:
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=WtqpmdIAAAAJ&hl=en

[mtrueman]

Landslides are often triggered by heavy rainfall. Rainfall is a weather phenomenon, not a geophysical one. Disastrous landslides occur on slag heaps around mines and urban areas where housing is built encroaching on surrounding hillsides. It's a man-made component to a natural disaster.

[the phucko]

So landslides only occur when humans r present? Does that include avalanches too? Yes.... I'm calling u an idiot.
The Phucko Knows

[mtrueman]

"So landslides only occur when humans r present? "

Disasters occur when humans are present. There was a large submarine landslide of the coast of Baffin Island a few years back. Was the landslide a disaster? No. Why? It didn't affect humans or their property. Thanks for you attention.

[mad.casual]

Landslides are often triggered by heavy rainfall. Rainfall is a weather phenomenon, not a geophysical one.

Landslides are caused by earth mounded at a steep pitch. No amount of rainfall on flat ground can cause a landslide. The pitch of the earth is a geophysical phenomenon, not a weather one.

[mtrueman]

"Landslides are caused by earth mounded at a steep pitch."

To be absolutely clear, I should point out that no matter how steep the pitch, the landslide always occurs down hill. Never up hill. Thanks for your clarification.

[Longtobefree]

" . . . which is very good news and completely contrary to conventional wisdom,"

I got some more news for you Ron; propaganda is not conventional wisdom. Reality is that all the global climate warming change hysteria is propaganda, the fact that the planet is and always has been in a cycle of VERY slow warming and cooling is conventional wisdom.
See how it works?

[mtrueman]

"See how it works?"

No. Is anything driving this cycle of very slow warming and cooling? Perhaps it's simply a quirk of mother nature. Is that how it works?

[Square = Circle]

Perhaps it's simply a quirk of mother nature. Is that how it works?

Actually, yes. Stasis is something found very, very rarely in nature. So rarely that one might even say "never."

[Nardz]

Unless something's changed in the last few years, absolute 0 (stasis) has never been observed.

Heat = motion = life
Cold = stasis = death

The little ice age ended less than 200 years ago. It was a time of hardship and danger for humans.
Warm periods are objectively good for human life. Warming trends are a good thing.
No wonder the left sees it as disaster.

[mtrueman]

"The little ice age ended less than 200 years ago. It was a time of hardship and danger for humans."

Aren't the effects of the little ice age confined to the north Atlantic region? ie not a global phenomenon.

[mad.casual]

Aren't the effects of the little ice age confined to the north Atlantic region? ie not a global phenomenon.

No. Heat generating greater motion and lack of it generating less is a universal phenomenon. I thought you understood physics at least at a 'greenhouses are relatively warmer no matter where you put them' level?

[mtrueman]

It seems this little ice age was 'most pronounced' in the north Atlantic region, rather than 'confined' to it. It also seems that VERY long cycles or CO2 emissions didn't play a significant role. Thanks for your input.

[mtrueman]

Where there is an effect, there is a cause. Except for this very slow cycle of cooling and warming that Longtobefree has told us about. This happens, if Longtobefree is to be believed, not because it is driven by physical phenomena, but because of some mysterious whim of Mother Nature.

[Union of Concerned Socks]

Dude, what in the actual fuck is your point?

[mtrueman]

"Dude, what in the actual fuck is your point?"

cause, effect

[Smack Daddy]

Global warming and cooling trends are caused by solar cycles. Not magical mother nature, or man made up global warming.

[mtrueman]

Solar cycles are about 10 years in duration, hardly the VERY slow phenomena that Longtobefree has posited.

[Hank Ferrous]

I eagerly await the cult's decision that earthquakes are caused by climate change. Tho' truth be told, am rooting for kaiju as the cause for all of it.

[Ve-Ra]

I think some earthquakes while maybe not climate change-related are manmade. Ask anyone in Oklahoma about the increase in earthquakes since fracking started. Now it might just be a reporting on it more because of equipment and social media thing, but the feeling among the common folk Okies is that they have definitely increased.

[Sevo]

Yes, 'quakes with absolutely zero danger. Similar to quakes caused by mining, building reservoirs or any activity which affects the rock formations far below the surface.
I've read of them being compared to truck-traffic on city streets; IOWs, so what?

[mad.casual]

In my neighborhood, there are wetlands surrounding the village which has two sets of railroad tracks running through it. Up close, you can tell how heavily a freight train is loaded by the sounds it makes going down the track. Lighter trains clack down the tracks while heavier trains you can feel running down the tracks much further away. Streets between the tracks and wetlands have cut ins where the village or private owners/contractors have had to dig down and reconnect water and sewage to the mains that had rattled loose over the decades. Streets and houses further away and up the hill don't have the same cut ins despite being much, much older. There was a big environmental impact study done (actually many, many studies done along the length of the line) when Canada North wanted to double the amount of traffic. Given the amount of time between the request to double the traffic and getting the go-ahead relative to other, similar projects that didn't run through private communities and didn't incur the same gravimetric fluctuations (e.g. Keystone XL), it's pretty safe to say that the concerns were summarily ignored.

[NoVaNick]

Here ya go:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/climate-change-triggers-earthquakes-tsunamis-volcanoes

Note this is a 5 year old article that was then citing 7 year old studies.

[Hank Phillips]

What about bolide impacts? Surely some ham actor or autistic child will assure us that Global Warming caused the bolide impact that killed of the saurians.

[Sevo]

Will the SEC come after banks when they start including dire warnings in their statements and nothing happens?

[Isaac Bartram]

We have seen street flooding in coastal cities attributed to "sea level rise" due to "climate change" even though said streets are above the highest tides that these cities have experienced. Everyone jumps to "Climate Change" instead of "stormwater systems that are in adequate for the level of development they were intended to serve."

If people are going to insist on living in fragile coastal areas, they need to bear the cost for doing so and stop trying to pass the cost onto people who have not made that choice.

[mtrueman]

'If people are going to insist on living in fragile coastal areas"

It's a good bet they will. Rivers and lakes too. I doubt your social engineering is going to change that. Or mitigate these disasters,

[Isaac Bartram]

At least let us stop pretending that anything done about "climate change" like "net zero by 2100" will have any effect on what kind of disasters will occur in fragile (coastal zones, flood plains, fire prone forest areas etc) areas in the future.

Contrary to anything alarmists are stating, there has been no increase in either the frequency or severity of extreme events like tropical cyclones, coastal or river flooding, wildfires etc that cannot be explained by natural cyclic causation, changes in human occupation patterns or other causes not connected with any kind of anthropogenic climate change.

[Isaac Bartram]

Furthermore, contra Greta the wise "people are dying"), people are not dying from "climate change", they are dying from all the diseases they have traditionally died of due poor sanitation, contaminated drinking water and uncontrolled insect populations. None of those conditions will change just because you buy a Biden-approved electric car.

[mtrueman]

I've read that all the turmoil in Egypt and Syria has its roots in drought and crop failure. There's been unrest, civil war and a massive refugee crisis. Granted, this hasn't affected the US so we can afford the attitude you take that no one has died, and whatever troubles the shit hole countries face are their own making and well deserved. However, I'm concerned that if warming trends continue the problems that Egypt faced can spread across the globe. Last summer in British Columbia, again not the US, but a lot closer than Egypt, hundreds died due to a heat wave that reached 121F, and precipitated fires that utterly destroyed the town of Lytton. There is ample documentation of the disaster available on the internet if you care to check. It was only some six months ago, so you may recall it.

[Isaac Bartram]

First, you seem to be assuming that droughts and crop failure are a product of "climate change" rather than considering the possibility that they are cyclical events or possibly due to government policies which around the world screw small farm holders out of a decent price for their produce to placate city dwellers who are far more numerous. Even vicious totalitarian dictators have to maintain a "consent of the governed" veneer lest they lose not just their empires but their heads.

As to British Columbia, neither the heat wave you mentioned nor the recent floods are without precedent. Single extreme weather events are not proof of global warming or climate change.

[mtrueman]

"First, you seem to be assuming that droughts and crop failure are a product of "climate change"

It's not an assumption. Climate scientists have long predicted drought and intensifying heat waves as a consequence to increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. The intense droughts tend to confirm the climate scientists' work though you seem intent on rejecting it, preferring to blame drought and heat waves on some mysterious 'natural cycle.'

"As to British Columbia, neither the heat wave you mentioned nor the recent floods are without precedent."

A temperature of 121F is without precedent. It set a record for the highest recorded temperature in Canada. It set a new precedent.

"Single extreme weather events are not proof of global warming or climate change."

I never claimed they did. I'm pointing out that drought and heat wave do indeed kill people and damage property. Something you seemed inclined to minimize for whatever reason.

"possibly due to government policies which around the world screw small farm holders out of a decent price for their produce to placate city dwellers who are far more numerous"

Droughts and heat waves only make such policies worse. We have many examples of this throughout history.

[WoodChipperBob]

A *recorded* temperature of 121F is without precedent. On a geologic timescale, recorded temperatures barely exist, so what is unprecedented in recorded temperatures is pretty much irrelevant, especially since global average temperatures have been much higher than they are now.

[mtrueman]

" On a geologic timescale, recorded temperatures barely exist,"

Human civilization isn't measured in geological timescales. It is your ridiculous quibbling that is irrelevant.

[EISTAU Gree-Vance]

It was not 121F in British Columbia.

British Columbia is not Egypt. Dumbass.

[mtrueman]

LOOK OUT! Nymanite!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upHml6h4-oY&t=3s

[Isaac Bartram]

The fact that record high of 121F was recorded on a single day during a heat wave in BC does not mean that heat waves of that magnitude are unprecedented in BC. After all, it is highly unlikely that the Canadian Weather Service or anyone else has had someone watching a thermometer 24/7 for the time that a weather station has existed in Lytton, BC. Weather observations are taken typically a couple of times a day. Weather services have only used 24-hour graphical recording for a few decades.

[mtrueman]

Maybe Mother Nature snuck in a hotter day when the meteorologists were enjoying their summer vacation,

[Isaac Bartram]

No, maybe the temperature went up while no one
was checking the thermometer.

[Isaac Bartram]

I assume that by "your social engineering" you have inferred that I am advocating forbidding people from building in fragile areas. Far from it, knock yourself out. As civil engineers tend to joke "Nuke the whales and pave the wetlands". But I am long past the point of believing that roads and bridges built to serve communities on barrier islands are "essential infrastructure".

If people want to develop barrier islands, fine. But they need to build and maintain the infrastructure themselves without federal or state subsidies.

[mtrueman]

"I assume that by "your social engineering" you have inferred that I am advocating forbidding people from building in fragile areas."

I meant resorting to government action to change the behavior of people. In this case it's removing aid or subsidies to those who live in areas near water presumably to discourage habitation.

[Isaac Bartram]

Let me make one thing perfectly clear, I am not in favor of "removing aid or subsidies to those who live in areas near water presumably to discourage habitation". I am in favor of removing aid or subsidies to everyone.

[mtrueman]

Sounds like social engineering to me.

[Isaac Bartram]

Gee, I say that people can behave any way they want to behave, and you say I'm trying to manipulate the way they behave.

Interesting way of thinking you have there.

[mtrueman]

I think receiving subsidies is something people want, expect and demand. What other explanation do you have for it?

[Sevo]

No idea to which steaming pile of lefty shit your comments are directed, but along with being stupid the lot of them are dishonest assholes.
Whatever you post will be 'interpreted' with extreme dishonesty, attempting to twist your honest effort at communication into something else entirely.
Fuck every one of them with rusty garden implements.

[Isaac Bartram]

Actually, my comments are directed to everyone who is interested in reading them but in this particular case they are in response to mtrueman. So far it has been a civil and, might I say, respectful conversation.

[Sevo]

"We have seen street flooding in coastal cities attributed to "sea level rise" due to "climate change" even though said streets are above the highest tides that these cities have experienced..."

Twice a year, the west coast gets "king tides" which are alignments of sun and moon meaning some amount higher than norm high tides.
For the last twelve years or so, the Chron sends out a photoger to get some shots of The Embarcadero being flooded, runs them the next day with a caption reading 'Within the next couple of years, all high tides will look like this!'.
These are not serious people; these are not people who are worth your attention.

[Isaac Bartram]

Regardless of "king tides" or whatnot, most of the complaints of "Sea Level Rise" around the world can be boiled down to wealthy homeowners around the world who built in fragile coastal environments that have always been prone to coastal erosion as recorded through written history and who are now looking for all the regular Joes to bail them out.

[mtrueman]

Measuring sea level rise by counting the number of complaints by wealthy land owner around the world is bound to be unsatisfactory. Scientists have found that measuring the rise in terms of meters, centimeters etc is more suitable. Bringing in the wealthy land owners to the issue is a nice populist touch, however irrelevant.

[Isaac Bartram]

Except for the fact that no such actual change in sea level has been observed (other than those that can be attributed to uplift or subsidence) I say you were correct.

[Isaac Bartram]

...uplift or subsidence and the biggie, coastal erosion.

[mtrueman]

If oceans are warmer, their volume will increase. More volume means their levels will rise. Higher ocean temperatures will not cause land to subside, but rather water to rise. They call this phenomenon 'thermal expansion.' Check internet for details if you are curious.

[Isaac Bartram]

Funny thing is that tidal gauges are not reporting any such thing. some places seem to be experiencing uplift (rebounding from the ice caps weighing them down in the last ice age) other places are subsiding either because they are unstable or because of tectonic plate activity (one plate being subducted under another). Naturally except for sudden slippage any such changes occur over geologic time and are only detectable to geodesists using the most precise instruments and calculations (These are not the same guys certifying your property boundaries to your mortgage company or title insurance company or staking line and grade for your local drainage improvements).

[mtrueman]

"Funny thing is that tidal gauges are not reporting any such thing."

It is a funny thing, indeed. I would have expected an expanding ocean to expand uniformly and raise the sea level uniformly across the globe. This doesn't appear to be the case, however, it seems the sea level actually drops in some locations. Go figure.

[ImaPayne]

I see NY is looking at all electric homes and buildings in the future. Talk of heat pumps, etc. Dont these pol's every get the real knowledge about things.
1. Solar is only so good if you have sun
2. Heat pumps are ineffectient and dont work in cold climates
3. Auto's arent the real culprit, we are
4. Wind turbines dont work on the east or west coast because salt walter erodes them so fast you spend more energy sand blasting and painting that you lose all efficientcy. Hawaaii learned the hard way on this

[Rev. Arthur L. Kuckland]

No there not, if you believe that your an idiot...they are sent by zule

[samriddha bharat]

The number of weather, climate and water extremes are increasing and will become more frequent and severe in many parts of the world as a result of climate change. We are ignoring, we should aware about climate change, and work together to protect our earth.
very valuable information Thanks

[Publius Medicus]

My understanding is that the IPCCC report indicated not that these severe weather events are more frequent, in fact the Data for the past 20+ year suggests they are LESS frequent; but rather that when they do occur they will have increased intensity. This increase is in the range of 5% which could be problematic in the worst cases but by and large probably won’t make a meaningful difference in terms of lives lost.

[Hank Phillips]

Finally, an Econazi sockpuppet shill. The place was crawling with traditional nazi infiltrators selling their doomsday scenarios (someone lights a joint, someone sheds an unwanted pregnancy, some Republican gets defeated and has to get a real job). Now we have diversity to tell us lies about the weather too.

[mtrueman]

"Despite the alarmism about increasing weather disaster damages, toting up their costs cannot serve as reliable proof for man-made climate change."

Evaluating disasters in terms of human lives lost or dollar cost of damage done is bound to be unsatisfactory. A hurricane is a physical thing as is best understood in physical terms. Energy is measured in joules or BTUs. A commonly used measuring tool is that of a kiloton of TNT.

Vaclav Smil's Energy and Civilization emphasizes the importance of physical measurements as fundamental. There's a lot of science in the book and it was difficult for me to wrap my head around the huge numbers bandied about. I plan to read it again, eventually.

http://library.lol/main/AC470ED016B9B9214C64625F4709AA38

[Isaac Bartram]

The means to measure the intensity of storms has improved immensely. Historic storms are now being upgraded to higher intensities using data collected at the time using methods that were simply not available at the time when the original data were collected.

We have gone from word-of-mouth reports from ships at sea and that only from those that made it home (nothing was ever heard from ships that sank until radio communication was invented). Since then we have the "hurricane hunters" developed from the "derring-do" of pilots in the WWII era.

Since the 1970s "we", as in NOAA and other weather agencies around the world, have had satellites in orbit to track weather patterns, something that used to have to be done by human operators in thousands of weather stations on land and weather ships at sea, some in extremely hostile environments.

[mtrueman]

i think monitoring the ocean depths is even more recently possible. Satellites only yield accurate data for a few meters if I'm not mistaken.

[Isaac Bartram]

And monitoring the ocean depths has revealed what exactly about the intensity or frequency of hurricanes? he asks with bated breath.

[mtrueman]

Studies have revealed increasing intensity of cyclones since the 1970s. Check sources available on the internet if you are interested. The ocean depths are warmer than previously predicted. Tropical cyclones are spawned by warm oceans. This is why they typically occur in the summer months when the water is at its yearly maximum. Even the arctic region is not immune. Some ten years ago a cyclone, the strongest recorded, made landfall on Baffin Island, the largest island of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

[Isaac Bartram]

Interesting baseline to pick. The 1970s & 80s were a period of extremely low activity for tropical cyclones.

[mtrueman]

Sufficient satellite data doesn't exist prior to the 1970s. Which baseline would you prefer? I don't think a baseline in the 19th century, for example, is going to yield a meaningful analysis.

I think 1991 must have been an active time for cyclones. I was in Nagasaki, Japan when Typhoon Mireille hit. Maximum wind speeds 150 mph. I was outside and could barely walk back to my apartment so strong were the winds. After a few hours, calm returned and I ventured out to the streets which were full of debris. Then the winds started up again, only blowing in the opposite direction. The eye of the storm had passed right over my head! What an experience! It was the biggest typhoon (hurricane) in over 30 years at the time, and remains a record holder, if I'm not mistaken. Dozens of people killed, mostly from roofing tiles dislodged by the winds. Incidentally, I'm in Mexico now and survived the strongest earthquake I've experienced a few years back. The deaths due to that quake were also from falling roof tiles. According to an architect acquaintance of mine, there is no easy way to secure a roof tile.

[Truthteller1]

But, but science.

[Utkonos]

No no, THE Science. Without the article you’re talking about a cudgel of patriarchal oppression wielded to perpetuate white male privilege (either that or it’s bourgeois and arch-reactionary)

[Hank Phillips]

Izzat kinda like The Jesus in The Big Lebowski?

[Osiris43]

There were approximately 3 times as many people on Earth in 2020 as in 1950. The value of $1 in 2020 is less than 10% of its value in 1950. Therefore, even if there had been absolutely no change in the scope of natural disasters over that time, it should not be surprising to anyone that the number of people and the value of property affected by natural disasters have increased, even without considering how many people have moved to, and properties been developed in, disaster-prone areas like coast lines, in or near historic floodplains, heavily wooded areas, on steep mountain slopes and so on. Sheesh!

[mtrueman]

"The value of $1 in 2020 is less than 10% of its value in 1950. "

This is only one of the reasons that physicists measure energy in joules, not dollars.

[Isaac Bartram]

Regardless of what physicists measure, what matters to regular human beings is how does it affect their lives and that is measured in lives lost and dollars spent.

Oh, and by the way, the people who study hurricanes as a science say that there has been no increase in the frequency nor the intensity of tropical cyclones and that they would like the IPCC to stop saying that there has been.

[mtrueman]

"regular human beings "

Scientists aren't regular human beings. They like accurately measuring things with meaningful measurements. Loss of life or dollar value of property destroyed doesn't cut the mustard.

[Isaac Bartram]

Whaaaa?

[mtrueman]

Regular human beings are swayed by arguments based on their resentment of wealthy land owners and their luxurious sea side properties. Scientists are more demanding and require observations and measured data.

[Isaac Bartram]

I kind of have to say here that I give up. You insist that tropical cyclones are increasing in intensity and frequency in spite of the fact that they are not. Those are the things that scientists use those funny sounding units to measure.

Then you say that injuries and loss of life and dollar damage are meaningless when those are the things that really count when people count things up.

Like I said above, interesting way of thinking you have there.

[Isaac Bartram]

Just to get onto a sensible train of thought. Around the world, cyclonic weather activity, whether it is in the form of tropical storms producing rain or winter storms producing snow is essential to recharging water supplies on land. Water is essential for maintaining human life. In a nutshell, the more water the better.

As long as people can survive these events without adverse effects it doesn't matter how frequent or intense they are.

If you think hurricanes and blizzards are bad, just try to imagine a world in which they do not occur.

[mtrueman]

"Water is essential for maintaining human life."

I am pro-water. I'm not too keen on salt water though, truth be told.
When I was a lad, my best memories are of the days when school bus service was stopped due to freezing rain. Everything would be coated with a layer of sparking ice and we'd don our skates and take to the hilly roads, We couldn't have done this were it not for water.

[mtrueman]

"You insist that tropical cyclones are increasing in intensity and frequency in spite of the fact that they are not."

I'm just repeating what studies have reported and published on the internet. Increased ocean temperatures seem to lead to more cyclonic activity. What's so outrageous about that?

"Then you say that injuries and loss of life and dollar damage are meaningless when those are the things that really count when people count things up."

Not meaningless. Just not scientific enough to my mind. Physicists use physical measurements to measure physical things. That doesn't seem out of place or ill advised to me.

[Isaac Bartram]

What you are repeating are anecdotes from journalists repeating half-baked stories about increasing hurricane activity between the 1970s (when storm activity was in an extremely low phase of the cycle) and the 1990s thru the 2010s when storm activity reverted to more normal historical levels. Hurricane experts at both the National Hurricane Center and at Colorado State University Tropical Weather & Climate Research are on record admonishing the writers of IPCC reports to stop writing that tropical cyclones are either more frequent or more intense.

You keep saying "scientists say..." but the fact is that scientists are not saying any such thing. You are merely repeating what poorly informed journalists are saying "scientists say" because they simply do not understand either the lack of precision in available data collection or the speculative nature of the scientific method.

[mtrueman]

"when storm activity was in an extremely low phase of the cycle"

What cycle is this? Sunspots? I'm not convinced. It's only since the 1970s we have decent data on the matter because that's when satellite monitoring became possible. I suggest you check the internet for further information on tropical cyclones and why not lesser storms while you're at it. You should be skeptical of claims that increased ocean temperatures don't lead to rising sea levels or increased cyclonic activity.

[Isaac Bartram]

One last thought, what actuaries and civil engineers say about natural disasters means a lot more when considering public policy than what physicists say about the intensity or frequency of storms.

[mtrueman]

What celebrities and pundits have to say has more impact on public discourse than just about anyone else. Which goes a long way to explain the pickle we're in.

[Hank Phillips]

Not only that, but the world population has doubled, despite The Pill and LP spoiler votes causing other birth control legalizations. If today a cliff face topples off a mountain and kills 8 people, that same event would, statistically, have probably caused only four deaths 50 years ago. Unvarnished data and an trendlines will get you through lies about disasters better than lies will get you through disasters.

[sCuLLeRcRUsHEr]

I am skeptical about drawing any conclusions from this data. It's important to understand the dispersion of the data to understand what the error rate is. My reasons are tied to non-standard data collection, inconsistency with how deaths are included or not included, and measurement bias.

[konamok]

Start working at home with G00gle! It’s by-far the best job I’ve had. Last Wednesday I got a brand new BMW since getting a check for $6474 this – 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was bringing home at least $77 per hour.

I work thr0ugh this link, G0 to tech tab for work detail.………_>>>>> Click Here<b

[Mister Green]

Humanity will do just great with the 70-foot sea level rise! That's the amount the ocean will rise with the current CO2 in the atmosphere. After the Thwaites glacier comes off (3-5 years) things will really pick up speed- maybe even a 10-foot rise in one decade.

That will be enough to submerge Florida & the entire Eastern Seaboard coast. The stock market & US dollar will quickly go insolvent and 80 millon refugees will be on the move inland. I wonder about Mr. Bailey and if his family has any younger members or children? Perhaps they can clip this article to keep with them as they're sold into slavery for some warlord?

[Isaac Bartram]

Funny stuff. You ought to write TV screenplays.

70 ft rise, eh? Cool, my house here in the highlands of Altamonte Springs, FL sit comfortably at 85ft above sea level. Unlike most of Florida there is actually some relief in the topography, so I'll have beachfront property in 70 years. Damn, all I need now is a way to live to be 144 years old.

Of course, by then the Yellowstone Caldera might have blown its top or the New Madrid or San Andreas faults may have slipped a few decimeters and generated a death toll in the millions.

🙂

[Sandy]

Not only the weather worsening day day by but also the lifestyle that we have adopted to. We need to try changing our lifestyle. Now a days children are stuck to playing games online which is affecting their lifestyle and behavior. They play Free Fire games day and night and get free redeem codes and diamonds from website like abmasti.com everyday for free.
This is affecting their lifestyle

[seo]

There are so many election fraud cases and people in jail for committing election fraud I can only assume you are being disingenuous......www.now37.com

[Zeb]

I'm not sure we can rule that out based on this information.

[mtrueman]

Water increases the weight of the upper level of the soil to the point where the upper level of the soil slides down hill. It can damage people and property if they aren't able to avoid it.

[con_fuse9]

There was a study many years ago looking into why Full Moons cause crazyness etc. As their study was failing, they decided to look into whether or not Full Moon actually causes crazyness. Turns out they couldn't find any statistically relevant data to support it. Police records, hospital records etc. All a myth?
It was only one study, not sure how well it was peer reviewed. "Ask any nurse how crazy it gets during a full Moon" vs. "Statistically, looking at hospital records, we cannot find any increase in cases during full Moons"

[Isaac Bartram]

I'm not sure it's accurate to say that "Water increases the weight of the upper level of the soil to the point where the upper level of the soil slides down hill" is purely due to a "weather phenomenon": ie rainfall. Surely there is a geophysical component to the fact that saturated soils behave differently from dry soils.

Your point, however, that some events are "man-made component[s] to...natural disaster[s]" is well taken. A lot of the appeals about "climate change" damage is due to people building in areas that were unstable long before Margaret Thatcher started subsiding climate research in an effort to increase support for subsidies to nuclear power as well as to break the miner's union and close down unprofitable coal mines.:)

[mtrueman]

I was simplifying for the sake of Geiger Goldstaedt, who seemed confused.

[mtrueman]

I remember my astronomy professor telling the class that this full moon business is likely due to the fact that astronomers recognize a full moon only one night in a monthly (or nearly monthly) cycle. Lay persons, like doctors, nurses and accident victims are likely to look up and claim to see a full moon a day or two both before and after the 'official full moon.'