A Tax Break for the Rich Could End up Being the Largest Part of the 'Build Back Better' Plan
Removing the cap on the state and local tax deduction would be a massive tax break for wealthy Americans who choose to live in high-tax states.

President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" plan was pitched as a once-in-a-generation rebalancing of America's socioeconomic scales. Democrats were going to "Tax The Rich" and use the proceeds to fund a massive expansion of government benefits for everyone else.
Now, the package appears likely to deliver an overall tax cut for America's wealthiest citizens.
In large part, that's because Democrats now plan to fully repeal a cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. The cap, imposed as part of the 2017 federal tax reform law, allows Americans to deduct up to $10,000 in state and local tax payments from their federal taxes. That cap is high enough that it covers the vast majority of Americans, but the changes made in 2017 meant that wealthy Americans could no longer take advantage of a sort of backdoor subsidy that eased the burden of living in a high-tax state or locality.
Unsurprisingly, restoring the SALT deduction (or at least raising the cap) has been a priority for lawmakers from California, New Jersey, New York, and other high-tax states. It appears they will get their way.
Today's news is encouraging for a SALT cap repeal to be included in the final reconciliation package — a huge win for New Jersey!
Read my statement here w/ @RepTomSuozzi @RepSherrill: pic.twitter.com/07TPwj9R1u
— Rep Josh Gottheimer (@RepJoshG) November 2, 2021
There's no way around it: Removing the SALT cap is a huge tax break for a small number of very wealthy Americans. According to the Tax Policy Center, only about 9 percent of households will see any benefit from repealing the cap. The wealthiest 1 percent of American households will receive 56 percent of the benefits.
Meanwhile, "approximately 99 percent of the decrease in tax liability accrues to taxpayers with $100,000 or more of economic income," according to the Joint Committee on Taxation, an independent number-crunching agency housed inside Congress.
Including the SALT cap repeal in Biden's revised "framework" would transform the overall package into a $30 billion net tax cut for the wealthiest 5 percent of Americans next year, according to a recent analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonprofit that advocates for reducing the budget deficit.
"A five-year repeal would cost roughly $475 billion, with $400 billion of the tax cut going to the top 5 percent of households," the CRFB concluded. "That is more than any other part of Build Back Better, including the Child Tax Credit, spending on child care and pre-K, climate-related tax credits, or health care funding."
There's nothing inherently wrong with cutting taxes, of course, and the wealthy already pay a disproportionately large share to the federal government. But the SALT deduction is problematic on libertarian grounds because how much you pay to your state government should not affect how much you owe to the federal government. Wealthy residents of California or New York who want to pay less in taxes should move to a lower-tax state or vote for politicians who will cut taxes—not have their tax bills subsidized by residents of other places.
It's also bad policy because the SALT deduction effectively serves as a subsidy for state governments that impose high taxes. Because residents of those states do not have to bear the full burden of their state and federal taxes, politicians in those places are insulated against the political costs of approving expensive and often wasteful projects. And abolishing the SALT deduction has for years been part of bipartisan plans to overhaul federal tax-and-spending policies.
It's notable that repealing the SALT cap was not something Biden included in the framework he announced on Friday. Almost immediately, however, there were reports that Democratic leaders were giving assurances to their members that the SALT cap repeal would be included in the final package. Those rumors were finally confirmed on Tuesday by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D–N.J.), a longtime advocate for repeal.
It's no wonder why Biden and other Democrats were trying to keep the SALT cap repeal a secret. Its inclusion makes the overall package significantly less attractive to progressives—possibly even unprogressive in their eyes, given the overall cost of the SALT cap repeal and the thin slice of well-to-do Americans who benefit from it. And studies show that repealing the SALT cap might also make housing even less affordable, cutting against another professed goal of Biden's supposedly progressive agenda.
With the inclusion of the SALT cap repeal, Biden's "Build Back Better" plan would "do more for the super-rich than it does for climate change, childcare, or preschool," tweeted Jason Furman, the former chairman of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisors. "That's obscene."
"The last thing we should be doing is giving more tax breaks to the very rich," Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) tweeted on Tuesday. "Democrats campaigned and won on an agenda that demands that the very wealthy finally pay their fair share, not one that gives them more tax breaks."
Given the haphazard negotiations between Congress and the White House in recent weeks over a bill that increasingly seems likely to be Biden's best shot at passing a major set of domestic policies before the midterm elections, there's no way to know what will happen next. Advocates of the SALT cap repeal seem fairly confident of getting their way, but progressives, or the White House, could still force a change of direction.
After all, progressives in the House of Representatives have already had to swallow the removal of a politically popular paid leave program from Biden's agenda on the grounds that its inclusion was too expensive. The paid leave problem would have cost an estimated $540 billion over 10 years, while the SALT cap repeal will "cost" (in the form of reduced revenue) about $475 billion over just five years, according to CRFB's analysis.
A few days after paid leave was discarded, Democrats are now promising to shovel big bucks into the bank accounts of some of the wealthiest people in America. That progressive takeover that we've heard so much about doesn't seem to be going according to plan.
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GASP!
Who could have seen this coming?
Someone should create a parody account to drive this point home.
Surprised that isn’t OBLigatory.
Reason staff missed a golden opportunity to reach out to OBL for a first comment before publication, or, even better, to give them a quote for the article itself.
They’re really not that into us.
To be fair, we ride them hard. They deserve it. But that’s why they’re sore.
Agreed.
Well to be honest with you i didn't see that coming.
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Lol...the one thing that would personally make this shit sandwich a slight tastiness for me.
But the SALT deduction is problematic on libertarian grounds because how much you pay to your state government should not affect how much you owe to the federal government.
Huh?
We like to stick to oddball, technocratic issues to call out as "problematic" from a libertarian perspective.
Vaccine mandates and global lockdowns are just stuff that happens to us with many nuanced arguments that can be interpreted in a multitude of ways.
It's a cost shifting mechanism transferring the burden from high tax states to low tax ones at the federal level.
If you're ever the cap, any increase in the cap lowers your federal taxes and costs the bill onto someone else. Now because your total taxes have gone down you should "pay your fair share" by supporting new programs/taxes to backfill the lost federal taxes (again sticking part of the bill to low tax areas).
It encourages high taxes and spending at both state and federal levels.
"If you're ever the cap, any increase in the cap lowers your federal taxes and costs [sic...shifts?] the bill onto someone else."
Except lowering taxes isn't a cost, and it isn't a bill.
FFS, I understand that this gores the blue ox, so I tend to agree with it, but conservatives shouldn't engage in orwellian double speak to justify it. The cost of government is a spending problem. Letting people keep their money isn't a COST.
Decreasing the Capital gains tax, is not a cost. Decreasing the top marginal rate isn't a cost. Increasing the Child Deduction isn't a cost (unless it is a refundable credit that gets paid above what you owe in taxes). And allowing a person to deduct the money they paid to their state isn't a cost either.
Except some believe federal taxation should be administered equally to the individual and not based on the taxation of a given state. This is a federal carve out to make taxes unequal among the population. It isnt about it being a government cost but making a federal tax more favorable to some than others.
"Except some believe federal taxation should be administered equally to the individual and not based on the taxation of a given state."
Fine, then make that argument. Call it for what it is: picking and choosing which expenses to exclude from calculating income.
More accurately, you should call it a an Income-Tax Tax. You are honestly levying a tax on what they pay to the State Government, much like a sales tax. But certainly don't call it a cost shifting or subsidy.
How about get rid of all deductions. The only purpose of federal taxes should be to fund the federal government. Not endorsing any type of behavior.
This. Salt is just an egregious example.
It really raises my blood pressure.
Must we always pepper the comments with puns?
He has a salty sense of humor.
I try to spice things up.
How about get rid of all deductions.
Because quite a large number of them involve legitimate business expenses that are 'costs of income,' so to speak. My dad ran his own auto-shop for a while, for example, and never turned a profit, but when the IRS decided that therefore it was a hobby and not a business, he wound up having to pay back taxes on the revenue, even though he had spent that revenue, and more, paying rent, wages, and utilities for his business.
Eliminating all deductions would destroy every independent contractor and small business immediately.
Salt is a deduction for personal income tax. Small businesses can still expense things like mileage before either state or federal taxes are taken.
That’s different than deductions on personal income like mortgage interest (the government subsidizing home ownership over renting) or child tax credits (the government subsidizing having children over not).
Deductions =/= expenses.
Wow. That's some extra special bullshit. So after his business failed, he was rewarded with a bonus kick in the nuts for having been unsuccessful? That's horrible.
No; Businesses have no more of an excuse for deductions as any given person...
... "paying rent, wages(labor service), and utilities for his business".... And what working person doesn't ALSO have those bills in order to be a working person????
I'm with the NO deductions crowd and the only legitimate "business" I can even think of that would be fairly excepted would be bank transactions. Quite frankly; a standard bill for each American would not only be the fair system it would probably clean up our Nazi-Government.
I didn't. I believe in a flat tax at the federal level. Don't like EITC nor child tax credit. It is all complicating the tax code in order to convince others of favorable exemptions elsewhere are valid.
You are honestly levying a tax on what they pay to the State Government, much like a sales tax.
^
When this debate came up before I never got an answer on what I'm supposed to when my state government decides to take 55% of my income, and the Federal government decides to take the other 55%.
The root problem is the spending, not the deductions.
The root problem is the spending, not the deductions.
In addition, of course, to taxing income rather than consumption, which arguably eliminates the possibility of having a fair system that doesn't pick winners and losers.
I’m all for switching to a consumption tax over an income tax, like the Fairtax (has Reason ever done an article on the Fairtax?) But in the meantime, I have no interest in subsidizing people who live in high tax state’s federal income taxes. Especially since those states have more representatives that vote for those higher federal taxes.
“Especially since those states have more representatives that vote for those higher federal taxes.”
And I admit this is an assumption based on the relationship between high tax states like NY and Cali and how many representatives they get. It would be interesting to break out the conservative reps in high tax states and add in the liberal reps in low tax states. But not interesting enough for me to bother.
"But in the meantime, I have no interest in subsidizing people who live in high tax state’s federal income taxes"
Except you aren't subsidizing people living in high tax states. You are paying the same taxes whether they have a deduction or not. And it isn't even a subsidy. Letting people keep more of their taxes isn't a subsidy.
Well; It is in the sense the cost is billed later. Not paying a bill doesn't mean the bill doesn't exist.
“When this debate came up before I never got an answer on what I'm supposed to when my state government decides to take 55% of my income, and the Federal government decides to take the other 55%.”
Move.
"Move." -- That's what ALL USA Manufacturing did. But just move your mailing address (i.e. corporate headquarters) while continuing to live in the USA.. It's the best tax-cut you can get.
I dunno. I can see both sides of the debate.
I think we're on firmer ground arguing against taxes in general, than arguing about the way they're divided up. I certainly can agree that we shouldn't refer to tax reductions as "costs".
I think I come down on the side of the "No SALT Deduction" argument. Take two people earning $100k, but living in different states. Is the one in the lower taxed state getting more from the Feds for their higher federal tax payment than the one in the higher taxed state, if the SALT deduction is allowed?
Which I suppose is the point Jesse already made.
I get that it sucks to be taxed more, for sure. But the idea is that we're all supposed to be treated the same by the Feds, and if we want a different state environment, we're allowed to move to a different of the "fifty experiments in liberty". We don't really have nearly as much of an option to avoid federal taxes by moving to a different country.
If one accepts that the feds possess legitimate authority to tax people on their income to pay for their expenditures, then it only seems fair to tax the citizens equally from state to state.
As for the argument that the person in the high tax state "never sees that part of their income", the exact same thing can be said about federal tax withholding as well.
I guess I'd look at it as, if you earn $100k, then your federal tax bill is $20k whether you're in Wyoming or Massachusetts. Then your state tax bill might be $1k in Wyoming, but $10k in Massachusetts. And if you don't like the cost of living in Massachusetts, either work to fix it or move.
If you look at taxes as an expense like any other, then you could easily argue that any expense should also be deductible. In fact,
many expenses (not even including those charged by the government) are deductible where others are not. It's gotten very convoluted.
You have mostly convinced me.
I need to think a little more about if anything from federal taxes should be subject to deductions.
While there is a spending problem, schemes like change who bears the costs imposed and incentivise more spending, not less. FFS if I could use your ATM card whenever mine was maxed why would I care about my overspending.
>>President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" plan was pitched as a once-in-a-generation ...
the saddest part of the entire escapade is you Eric keep proving you believe (D).
It’s a tax cut for idiots who live in shithole states.
That.
Move. Stop expecting Flyover Land to keep subsidizing your mentally ill State government.
No wonder Reason is for it.
Where does "Reason is for it" come from?
Their who they voted for article where more favored biden and his campaign plans over mean tweets. The repeal of SALT was campaigned on during the election. They didn't hide it.
Who feels their IQ dropping every time they reads the slogan "Build Back Better"?
For one thing, there is no essential difference between "Build Back Better" and "Make America Great Again". The lack of creativity is astounding.
I disagree. Make America Great Again has meaning which is obvious. You may not like it or agree with it, but I know what it means.
I don't know what Build Back Better means without a 3.5 trillion dollar omnibus bill to explain it to me.
Build back implies a spending spree. Make great again does not.
But better? Better than what? Certainly not better than my dad ever did.
Better for progressive globalists.
I left better off intentionally =]
Build back... what are we building back? It's a stupid adolescent phrasing.
I mean, why not Rebuild? Why not Rebuild America?
What would have been wrong with that? Same as MAGA, one may not agree with it, or like who's saying it, but I would know what that means. Build Back Better is so abysmally stupid it's enraging every time I hear it.
Each of the words starts with a B. Someone thought that was clever.
Well that person is a birdbrain.
Who? Brandon?
Brandon Birdbrain Biden.
So... what is that... I went to the school of Hard Knocks and have a PhD in the streets... alliteration? Is that what the Harvard Poetry Club calls it? They went with it because of alliteration?
America is doomed.
Also,, better for who?
The thing I found most ironic about the folks hating on the MAGA slogan was that it seemed to be advocating exactly what a lot of them seemed to want. Like, a bunch of them are constantly pining for the good old days of union blue collar labor jobs doing manufacturing work in places like Detroit. I get that they disagreed with Trump's particular vision of what "great" looked like (well, probably disagreed) but the concept of wanting to return to greatness is totally their schtick.
It increases my rage every time I hear it.
Well, Sloppy Joe stole that phrase from across the pond, so a little might have beeb lost in translation. Boris Johnson was quite gracious and stopped using the phrase hinself when Biden picked it up.
And yes, exactly that phrase, repeatedly while Johnson campaigned.
Sanders: Proposed five-year SALT cap repeal 'beyond unacceptable'
also the crazy chick wore that dress well.
If you don't know who she is, she's quite pretty. Even without judging on the Politician Scale, where she's practically Bardot in her prime.
Although Yulia Timoshenko thinks AOC's still a bitch.
she could talk politics the whole time afaic.
Considering those teeth it’d probably be the safest thing for her to do with her mouth.
living example of the wind-up chompers on little feet.
You are crazy.
Never stick it in crazy.
This. ^
you're missing out.
Leaving California took me from needing to pay AMT to not even always needing to itemize deductions.
My first year without the deduction was a five figure heart attack, but the companies here have largely made everyone whole again. I'd be out in a second, but I cannot countenance moving my kids a 3rd time before they are out of school. Another 8 years and I am out.
So what's wrong with that? Otherwise they pay a tax on tax.
No, they pay a tax on income. Why should they pay less of their income to the federal government than someone who lives in a lower taxed state? It incentivizes residents in high tax states to hold their state governments less accountable.
"No, they pay a tax on income."
No it really is a tax on tax. A person gets $1000 from their employer, and $100 goes straight to their state government. They didn't take it home as income. And now they have to pay an additional $30 to the federal government.
This really is unprecedented in tax law- it would be similar to telling a company that they cannot deduct the cost of aluminum from their car sales. "Why should you pay less in taxes than someone who doesn't use aluminum in their car manufacturing?"
No, a person gets $1000 from their employer, and the state and federal governments are both taking their cut directly from that. Or in some states, the state isn’t taking their cut, or is taking less of a cut.
I, and the other residents of my state have a say in how much money my state takes from that $1000. We have no say in how much another state is taking from their residents. So that shouldn’t effect how much the federal government is taking from me in relation to them.
Bullshit. The $100 goes to them then is paid to the state for the services, goodies and feels they voted for.
This is no different than if my mortgage payment was direct deposited to the bank instead of me. Now tell me why my mortgage should reduce what I owe for my car payment and why my neighbor needs to make up the difference.
You are fundamentally misrepresenting state taxes to make your tax on tax argument.
No, you're misrepresenting taxes generally if you think they're like buying consumer goods! Taxes are involuntary. You're stuck paying for whatever other people in your polity voted for.
"This is no different than if my mortgage payment was direct deposited to the bank instead of me."
You are inadvertently proving my point for me.
When you buy a house, you haven't incurred an expense. You have merely converted a bunch of cash to a bunch of real estate. It is not an expense. However, the *costs* of that conversion are an expense. This would be the closing costs of the house, and the interest on the mortgage.
And guess what? Those are deductible expenses on your taxes.
Again, if you want to argue that you want to favor certain expenses over others- for example to punish behavior you don't like- then call for that. But acting as if not taking (taxing) is giving (subsidizing) is playing into the progs' gameplan.
What's that got to do with libertarian grounds? If you can deduct what you lost in a robbery, would you say you're letting a criminal determine how much you owe the federal government?
Taxation is theft is a slogan, not a good logical point about federal tax deductions.
Then what if it's not a theft, but a casualty loss? Why should you be able to deduct what you lose in a fire? That's letting natural or unnatural disasters dictate to the federal government!
So, if voters in a state chose to tax everyone at 100%, they would not have to pay any Federal income tax at all.
Maybe those high-tax states should just cut their taxes.
That’s crazy talk!
But the taxpayers don't have the power to do that themselves. That's up to their government, and the taxpayers may be outvoted by others. Many taxpayers aren't even eligible to vote. So why are you holding them hostage to try to improve their state's tax policy?
It's too bad we don't live in a democracy.
Fuck Joe Biden
Fuck lying ass Dee.
Hey guys. Nobody should be mean to the president. That isn't intelligent conversation. Now let met tell you about my mute list.
*sigh*...I suppose the willingness to use this slogan will be a test to separate the Real Americans from the cucks.
Nah, it’s just for fun. No pressure.
"Removing the cap on the state and local tax deduction would be a massive tax break for wealthy Americans who choose to live in high-tax states."
This is garbage.
The fact that it lets wealthy people keep more of their money isn't a reason to support letting people deduct state taxes--because state government will just tax that money away. For goodness' sake, Trump getting rid of that deduction (and wealthy individuals fleeing states like California and New York) was one of the few things that put pressure on high tax states to cut their taxes.
One of the libertarian and capitalist reasons to oppose letting people deduct state taxes is because it effectively forces taxpayers in states with low taxes to subsidize spending in high tax states, but the bigger reason is because it takes away a disincentive for states like California and New York to cut their tax rates.
I don't know if anyone told you that class envy is a legitimately libertarian and capitalist lens through which to look at tax policy, but if someone did, they were ridiculously wrong.
Lots of deductions let people keep more of their money, and good for them, but that also means they’re being “subsidized” by people who can’t claim those deductions.
Of course, if the government wasn’t engaged in the morally bankrupt practice of taxing income, this wouldn’t be a problem.
"one of the few things that put pressure on high tax states to cut their taxes."
Did it though? Not one of the states has cut taxes to my knowledge.
Bailout, bailout, bailouts...
Give them a proper chance to run out of other people's money and then we'll see.
"President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" plan was pitched as a once-in-a-generation rebalancing of America's socioeconomic scales."
A "Great Reset," you might say.
Or a “Great leap forward “.
"But the SALT deduction is problematic on libertarian grounds because how much you pay to your state government should not affect how much you owe to the federal government. Wealthy residents of California or New York who want to pay less in taxes should move to a lower-tax state or vote for politicians who will cut taxes—not have their tax bills subsidized by residents of other places."
It is terrible to call tax cuts a subsidy. Letting people keep what is theirs is not "subsidizing". "Not taking is giving!" "Not giving is taking!" These are orwellian constructions designed to confuse arguments, and it is shocking that Reason engages in them.
Listen- I'd love nothing more than to have my state lower its fucking taxes. But when Reason (among others) use this sloppy reasoning, it makes it that much easier for Progressives to use the same sloppy constructions to argue against reduction in any tax. Because by this logic, allowing people to deduct ANY expense is a subsidy.
Subsidizing happens when the federal government SPENDS money on something. That generally doesn't happen in taxes, unless it is for something like the Child Tax Credit (which is a full handout, just spent refundable as a credit against your taxes).
Red States aren't subsidizing Blue States. They aren't sending any money to Blue States, they are sending it to the Federal Government who then turns around and spends it in various ways. In a year, Californians will send $250 Billion to the Federal Government, and Texas will send $140 Billion. If the SALT Deduction Cap is lifted Californians will send $225 Billion to the Federal Government and Texas will still send $140 Billion. Notice that Texas didn't increase its payments, its payments stay the same, so it hasn't subsidized anything.
If you call this a subsidy, you open the door for progressives to define any tax deduction as a "subsidy" for families or your small business. Cap on your property taxes? Subsidy! Allow you to deduct the cost of a new truck for your business? SUBSIDY.
I see the argument for penalizing high tax states. I see the argument that if you are going to give tax breaks, maybe you don't want to give tax breaks to the rich. But make those arguments. Don't try to steal bases by torturing the meaning of words. It makes progressives' jobs easier.
And just to show what I mean, here is an article by Bailey in the past playing fast and loose with the meanings of Subsidies vis a vis Oil production. Allowing deductions to be called Subsidies gives progs the air cover they need to make Oil production in the US more expensive:
https://reason.com/2020/10/23/is-bidens-oil-transition-debate-claim-really-a-big-statement/?comments=true#comment-8540409
There should be zero deductions for your taxes. Nothing.
All deductions serve is to give others power over you. Saying they will steal less of your money if you do what they want. It's all fraudulent and corrupt
So income taxes should be based on gross cash receipts? Hope you enjoy bartering for everything!
I do.
But tax cuts should be equal to everyone. Just because you choose to live in a high-tax state does not mean you should be able to pay less in taxes. This is the "subsidy". You are explicitly collecting less in taxes from high-income taxpayers in high-tax states who choose to live in that state and perhaps even voted for those higher taxes. The government does this all the time. They allow tax deductions or provide subsidies to encourage certain behavior. No one should be rewarded or penalized merely because of what what state they choose to live in.
Yup. Nailed it again, overt. It’s surprising sometimes that people who should know better can fall into the “not taking is giving” trap. I can understand the temptation in this case, but no.
Why didn't Boehm just call this article "OBL's First Law?"
LOL
WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN????
We've been waiting for you!
He has been polishing his monocle.
What?!?! No orphans?!?!?
We don’t talk about the orphans in polite company anymore. Cuts down on the cocktail party invites.
Everyone is reading way too much into this. This change goes against the Dem claim to make the rich pay their fair share. Arguing about Reason's politics, whether it's an income tax or a tax tax is beside the point. It's just hypocritical, nothing more, nothing less. Think of it as a Brick Bat on a larger scale.
It's just hypocritical, nothing more, nothing less.
Well . . . yeah. That just kind of goes without saying.
"This change goes against the Dem claim to make the rich pay their fair share."
And by 'fair share' they mean to rob them blind.....
Conquer and Consume...
OT: I'm not sure how to interpret this. In the VA governor's race reports are that at this point Youngkin has 55% of the vote while McAuliffe has 44%. Earlier today I heard a report that McAuliffe was leading 2:1 on mail-in ballots. Would that mean that Youngkin has wiped out any advantage that McAuliffe had due to Democrats use of Mail-in ballots, or what.
Meanwhile, NPR reports that 55-44 is "neck and neck!"
They were supposed to count the early votes first--before the polls even opened--but they didn't.
It isn't over until it's over, but it's not looking good for the Democrats.
Ken, as I noted, "Earlier today I heard a report that McAuliffe was leading 2:1 on mail-in ballots." I interpret that as saying that early votes had, in fact, been counted.
The fact that googled results show Youngkin leading 55-43 suggests to me that any advantage team blue had has been wiped out.
I'm fairly sure that whatever aberration it was that made so many voters delude themselves that Joe Biden would be a good president has passed.
No, they still haven't counted early mail in ballots or early in-person voting ballots.
As I said, they were supposed to count the early ballots early--but they did NOT.
I'm looking at them being reporting by county--and there are still counties with zero early by mail and zero early in person totals.
What are the chances that Alexandria had zero early mail-in ballots and zero early in person ballots to count?
I suspect the correct answer is a zero percent chance of that happening.
Meanwhile, Alexandria has counted 11,424 election day in person votes.
And that's just one example.
We'll see, let's hope for the best,
There are apparently 800,000 ballots left to count, with McAulliffe needing to make up 200,000 votes. He could pick up 60,000 in Fairfax, which is only 70% in, but most of the other team blue areas appear to be 95% reported already. It's never over until it's over, but if this were a horse race, McAulliffe is running out of track. He doesn't have much time left to make a close. Still, it ain't over until it's over.
I wouldn't be so invested if I didn't think Biden's socialist budget reconciliation bill might die of the Democrat loses tonight. Per below, Biden is "gifting" his party a 15% handicap right now--compared to where the Democrats were last year in Loudoun County. If the moderate Democrats want to survive the 2022 midterms, signing onto a bill tied to inflation, higher energy costs, and backing a president who sicced the FBI on parents for opposing their local school boards does not look like a winning strategy from where McAulliffe is standing right now.
Meanwhile, NPR reports that 55-44 is "neck and neck!"
McAuliffe must have a really long neck.
Predictably, the Northern counties of VA are solid blue.
My parents lived in Falls Church for a while at the end of "The Big One". Both of my brothers who were born either while there or before turned out to be truly obnoxious socialists.
Perhaps it's something in the drinking water.
It wasn't a question of whether the Democrats would win deep blue counties. It was a question of how much they'd win by.
Biden won Loudon County 61.9% to Trump's 36.7%--a 25.2% margin.
Right now, McAuliffe is beating Younghkin 54.7% to 44.8%--a 9.9% margin.
If that margin holds, every "moderate" House Democrat who won their district by less than 10% in 2020 will wake up tomorrow with two ideas in their heads: 1) They'd rather distance themselves from Biden's budget reconciliation bill and 2) They should be fighting for parents against their school boards rather than for the FBI and against parents.
P.S. Those numbers from Loudoun County were with 95% reporting in Loudoun County (and about 55,000 early mail in and early in person ballots).
Meanwhile, in my mother's home state of NJ (you can take the girl out of Jersey, but you can't take Jersey out of the girl:), Democrat Phil Murphy is leading against Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli.
I'm not sure how much it matters, the corruption and malfeasance is so entrenched in the state that I don't think anyone cane make a difference.
The issue of school choice isn't front and center in New Jersey like it is in Virginia.
When Biden responded to the NSBA's letter by siccing the FBI on parents--because of the contents of that letter--one of the big issues the letter cited was in Loudoun county. Meanwhile, McAulliffe made that statement about how parents have no business telling schools what to teach their kids.
The other big issue was the smearing of the Republican as an insurrectionist and a racist--and the Democrat trying to make the election a referendum on Trump.
That's what makes this Virginia election interesting. It's a laboratory experiment for the two parties nationally in 2022. If the Democrats stick with smearing Republicans (both politicians and parents) as racists and the Republicans focus on parents and school choice, the Democrats will be massacred come 2022. That Democrat strategy doesn't even work in blue state like Virginia--chock full of federal government employees!
I think you're right.
i've never understood why the GOP even runs a candidate in NJ. they need to let the blue team own the mess in that state.
I haven't been looking at the details, but with 55% of the vote counted, the Republican is still beating the Democrat.
I doubt that will hold up, and there are probably big cities that haven't been counted yet, but the Republican is doing well there, too.
This all seems to be a referendum on Biden, and Biden has a low approval rating with Independents.
I am following VA pretty closely. Absent some shipping container full of ballots turning up that go 100% for McAwful i'm not sure there's a path for him to win anymore.
RIP SOCIALIST AGENDA.
Some of the largest vote batches left are the slow counted ballots in dem areas like Fairfax. Repeat of last year.
How mail in ballots are always last and they didn't give the total number of returned ballots before counting is astounding.
Youngkin has gone from +200k to +60k
I swear at one point the vote total for Youngkin went backwards too.
shenanigans
It's getting really close at the end
There are 200,000 votes left to count, and McAulliffe only needs to make up 100,000 to win.
Msnbc just called Va voters racist. Think youngkin won. They called the voters racist for voting for a Cuban over a white guy. And for voting in a gop black woman for lt gov.
They didn't learn a thing today.
It is still being fortified. It will be close.
I've actually seen 3 dem counties decrease their vote percent in the last few minutes...
Early mail in ballots breaking 3-1 for the Democrat looks really suspicious--if you want to make accusations.
I'm still hoping accusations won't be necessary.
They expected 2.4 million votes. So they got 1.2 million mail in as a base. Problem is 3 million voted.
And again, multiple reports of people being told they had already voted by mail.
The updates seem to have stalled.
"They expected 2.4 million votes. So they got 1.2 million mail in as a base. Problem is 3 million voted.
And again, multiple reports of people being told they had already voted by mail."
Just because the police framed OJ, doesn't mean he wasn't guilty.
I have no doubt that shenanigans exist, but the Democrat is underperforming Biden by 10%. That's a big deal nationally--any way you slice it. No one will reasonable will look at these results and say, "Yeah, that's the way to win in 2022!"--even if the Democrat wins.
I still want investigations into these double voting. There was over 10k known double votes last year in just a handful of states.
Easiest form of fraud is mail in ballots.
Voting should have the same security features as banking.
They were showing 97% of the vote counted, and then it went back down to 94%--after having no updates for a long time.
Arlington County keeps finding votes. They have been at 99.6% twice and now are at 98%
Poor Ken.
Youngkin wins!
I'm doing the math on all the blue districts--to see how many they have to give.
Fairfax: 19,530 votes to count--presently splitting 2-1 for McAulliffe = net 13,085 votes.
The rest of them aren't blue districts of substantial size.
I see 3,000 net votes for McAulliffe in Prince William County.
There are a lot of rural counties with only 95% in, and the Republican probably has more than enough to make up for that.
We'll see.
It's gonna be close.
I suppose we should remind ourselves that the point is that Biden won the state with a ten percent margin.
If the Democrat wins with less than 1% of the vote, it won't be a victory for the Democrats nationally--since Virginia is a blue state. If the Republicans close a 10% gap on what they did in 2020 nationally, they'll completely dominate the midterms.
We passed our food sovereignty question. Paging unintended consequences. Unintended consequences, please pick up the red courtesy phone.
Fairfax already stopped counting their mail in ballots at one point. Dem heavy county. Shocking.
Also multiple reports of people saying they were told they had already voted by mail when they had not. On top of dem election workers turning people sand mask away in the morning.
Is there legal justification for the mask rule?
It was against the law to demand a mask. The state sent a memo out early afternoon. But half the voting day was over.
I’m not gonna brag that’s about the response I was predicting in my head.
There is zero reason to have any kind of deduction for state and local taxes. None, Zero, Nothing.
If you want high taxes, you should fucking pay them, and not have lower-tax areas subsidize you.
Democrats are completely full of shit on everything, but especially this. This is nothing but a tax break to their rich voters. Nothing principled about this at all
Amen, preach it, brother:)
salt: ZERO
mortgage interest: ZERO
student loan interest: ZERO
All of the above!
The question why should a person in NY or California that earns the same amount as someone in Tennessee of Florida pay less in Federal Taxes?
SALT deduction needs to die and have a stake driven through it's heart.
Taxes are needed. I think we can all agree on that. But this system is fucked. It’s all in favor of the high earners/conglomerates and they have rigged it to the point many don’t pay any at all. We need a state and federal flat tax system with no deductions for every individual (except Social Security) and corporation. It’s simple and it’s fair. But that will never ever happen. Our representatives are ALL sellouts.
Seriously I don’t know why more people haven’t tried this, I work two shifts, 2 hours in the day and 2 in the evening…FTh And i get surly a check of $12600 what’s awesome is I m working from home so I get more time with my kids.
Try it, you won’t regret it........CASHAPP1