Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Is 95% Effective

Companies plan to seek emergency use authorization from the FDA almost immediately.


The clinical trial safety and efficacy results from Pfizer/BioNTech's vaccine for the virus that causes COVID-19 are now in and they are impressively positive. In the trial, 170 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were evaluated, with 162 observed in the placebo group versus eight in the vaccine group. Nine severe cases of COVID-19 occurred in the placebo group, whereas only one such case was observed among the vaccinated group. Based on these figures, the vaccine is 95 percent effective against COVID-19. The companies further report that "efficacy was consistent across age, gender, race and ethnicity demographics; observed efficacy in adults over 65 years of age was over 94 percent." The independent data monitoring committee for the trial identified no significant safety concerns with the vaccine.

The companies announced that they plan to submit a request within days to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use authorization (EUA). These data will be reviewed in a public session by the FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) prior to the issuance of any EUA for a COVID-19 vaccine. The VRBPAC is composed of nongovernment scientists, physicians, and other experts who make recommendations for or against regulatory approval based on their evaluation of the benefits and risks of candidate vaccines. Taking into account the committee's recommendations, the FDA will decide whether authorization is appropriate.

If approved, the companies expect to produce up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020 and up to 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021.

Right behind the Pfizer/BioNTech partnership is Moderna, which earlier this week reported that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate was also nearly 95 percent effective according to preliminary results of its ongoing clinical trial. Moderna expects to have accumulated enough data to meet the FDA's safety and efficacy requirements enabling it to submit its EUA by the end of this month. If approved, the company expects to have approximately 20 million doses of its vaccine ready to ship in the U.S. by the end of 2020 and aims to manufacture 500 million to 1 billion doses globally in 2021.

Earlier this week a team of American researchers published a preprint study concluding that the body's immune memory for fighting off the COVID-19 coronavirus could last for years, perhaps decades. "That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years," said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study, to The New York Times.

States are in various stages in their planning for distributing the vaccines when they become available. One highly useful development is that earlier this month the Department of Health and Human Services worked out agreements to distribute the vaccines with major pharmacy chains like Rite Aid, Walgreens, and CVS, supermarket drug stores like Albertsons and Publix, and big box stores like Costco and Walmart. CVS and Walgreens will also deliver vaccines to nursing homes and administer shots. The idea is that getting a COVID-19 inoculation should be about as easy as getting a seasonal flu shot.

In his company's press release, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla observes that the results of the clinical trial "mark an important step in this historic eight-month journey to bring forward a vaccine capable of helping to end this devastating pandemic." He is entirely correct. Had this pandemic broken out even 10 years ago, the world had not then developed the biotechnology tools that now make it likely that it can be tamed in just a little over a year.

NEXT: Rapid At-Home Tests for COVID-19 Finally Get FDA Approval. But People Still Need a Prescription.

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  1. Not that many placebo cases, when you define a case as needing actual symptoms:

    Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine data is out!

    Placebo Vaccine
    20,000 people 20,000 people
    162 cases 8 cases
    9 severe cases 1 severe case

    1. And why would vaccine researchers use “having symptoms” as a standard? Thank goodness your stupid partisan politics didn’t infect their research.

      1. Because – for one thing, they did. That is how they defined it.

        And, there’s a good reason. Many of their test subjects need to be exposed to the virus to determine its efficacy. So if you do a 40-cycle PCR and determine that they had some miniscule amount of virus in their system, it doesn’t tell you much. But if ther’s a big gap between people who develop symptoms on vaccine versus placebo, that tells you a lot more about the efficacy of your candidate.

        Because vaccines don’t prevent exposure. They prevent the vaccinated from becoming ill (symptomatic) and / or contagious, after exposure.

        1. Then why is Ra’s saying, “when you define a case as needing actual symptoms”?

          1. You are dumb.

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      2. I saw a great tweet recently from a guy named David Shiffman, which I will reproduce here:

        “If you find that your admittedly-uninformed personal opinion disagrees with expert consensus on a technical topic, please consider that “all the experts know something I don’t” is a more likely explanation than “I alone solved a complex problem experts have long been studying.””

        1. That is one of the dumbest things ever said since for complicated topics there is almost never a consensus. Yet here you imply it is the standard.

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        2. An example of why this quote is so fucking stupid… Copernicus against the science. The church claimed Copernicus was wrong due to a mathematical and scientific understanding if parallax. It was not observable at the time, but the scientific consensus was wrong.

          But feel free to be subservient to whoever you choose. Don’t expect the rest of us to do so.

          1. Excellent.

          2. I don’t think you understand what consensus means, or what preponderance of evidence means. Even in Copernicus’ time, the preponderance of evidence was in his favor. Are you saying there are scientists out there that are doubting that the Earth revolves around the Sun?

            Your idiotic response goes to show how partisanship has completely fucked up your brain. What I wrote should be completely noncontroversial and common-sensical. Yet you had to automatically rebel against it. I could write that water is wet, and you will deny it because I said it and you perceive me to be in the other tribe.

            Jfc, why am I even responding to this. This is like arguing with a creationist. Goodbye.

      3. Whg do positive tests that ate asymptomatic get counted as ‘COVID Cases’? Are you ever internally consistent about anything?

        1. I’m not the one who said that the trials were counting asymptomatic cases. Ra’s is the one who implied that.

      4. With the symptoms list being as broad as it is, the qualifications standard becomes subjective instead of objective. But you knew this.

        1. Translation: Ra’s disagrees with their standards for declaring a case asymptomatic, but instead of saying that, he implies they counted asymptomatic cases.

          1. And I’m stating using symptoms is subjective. What did you have trouble with?

            1. What did you have trouble with?

    2. Doesn’t matter as long as they controlled for other variables. Maybe both groups were quarantined in effectively the same way. That would drive down infection rates among both, with the vaccine accounting for any difference. If proper controls are in place then the relative difference between groups is all that matters for determining effectiveness. The absolute numbers are a result of the controls themselves.

      1. You are one of the VERY few people here who know what you’re talking about. Not only were the controls done properly but the fact that two different vaccines can both be so effective validates that infection can be prevented by vaccination – something that was not known only a few months ago. This is an enormous accomplishment.

  2. Despite Trump’s lack of cooperation in the transition of ol’ glorious power, the Biden future presidency has made good progress in bringing this future vaccine to light!

    1. “Despite Trump’s lack of cooperation in the transition of ol’ glorious power, the Biden future presidency has made good progress in bringing this future vaccine to light!”

      That’s some serious shit-slinging there, shit slinger.

      1. Jeez, your so full of seething anger you don’t realize that his sarcasm was aligned with your partisanship.

        1. Unfortunately, a vaccine for Sevo’s TDS is not likely anytime soon.

    2. It is a tremendous stroke of luck for Biden that at least two vaccines are ready to go at the start of his presidency.

      1. Tremendous stroke of luck that Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee and Philly all had near 100% voter turnout

        1. And the lowest percentages of mail in ballot rejections of any election…ever.

          1. Trump just fired the director in charge of election security for reporting that there was no evidence of widespread fraud, no evidence of votes being changed, and noted that in all the close states, paper ballots are kept with a chain a custody. Trump called him disloyal.

            Trump, once again the victim of one of his own hires. Uncanny.

            1. And your non sequitur proves there is or isn’t fraud how?

              1. It does not.

    3. Timing will be perfect. Biden is talking about implementing a 4-8 week (meaning 8 week) lockdown to stop the virus. If it starts in Feb. then we’ll be coming out of the lockdown in early Spring and tens of millions of the most vulnerable people will have been vaccinated. Then he’ll claim the numbers coming down were the result of his (8 week) lockdown, rather than being due to the vaccines and warming weather. Someone in his staff knows how to play the game.

      1. Some of Biden’s advisers are. They’ve had to walk it back.

        Vivek Murthy, who had a real position in the Obama administration and likely has more of a personal relationship than the others, has come out in the press against a general lockdown, and more towards targeted efforts like New York’s hot spot protocols.

        There have been a lot of positive signs coming out of Biden’s camp since the election. Perhaps Ol’ Joe is just crotchety enough to actually maintain control over all the pointy-headed masters-of-the-universe in his administration.

      2. Why would he order lock downs (not that he can) when the vaccine and warming weather would be just as effective? What would Biden gain from the lock down?

        1. He would be seen as doing something, as he promised to do. It would also give an excuse to give out even more bailouts/stimulus, and what president doesn’t like to do that?

          Also, he can certainly order a nationwide lockdown. By the time the courts shot it down fully it would be long over. Many would ignore it, of course, but then he can point to them as an excuse for why it’s not working.

          1. Why would he claim credit for H1NQ or swine flu for having low deaths despite 60 million infections? You’re the dumbfuck who voted for him.

            1. Did you respond to the wrong comment or something? I’m not following you.

              To be clear, I expect Biden to try to take undeserved credit when covid cases drop. I also expect him to try to push through a stimulus that benefits his cronies. Finally, I never voted for him.

              1. Jesse has to show off his potty mouth, that’s all. Dude is legitimately full of rage. He will eventually grow into and replace John.

                1. Youre the one who keep rage making up background stories buddy. Cussing isn’t a sign of rage. It is a sign of disrespect, of which you deserve. You will note I don’t swear in general to those having honest conversations.

              2. It was to the wrong comment. It was meant for Stolen Valor up there. Apologies.

  3. Science, bitches!!

    Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Danish Mask WearersFREE
    A Randomized Controlled Trial

    A total of 3030 participants were randomly assigned to the recommendation to wear masks, and 2994 were assigned to control; 4862 completed the study. Infection with SARS-CoV-2 occurred in 42 participants recommended masks (1.8%) and 53 control participants (2.1%). The between-group difference was −0.3 percentage point (95% CI, −1.2 to 0.4 percentage point; P = 0.38) (odds ratio, 0.82 [CI, 0.54 to 1.23]; P = 0.33). Multiple imputation accounting for loss to follow-up yielded similar results. Although the difference observed was not statistically significant, the 95% CIs are compatible with a 46% reduction to a 23% increase in infection.

    Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others.

    The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.

    1. They didn’t use computer modeling? Deniers!


      Random controlled trials show no benefit to masks.

      “the difference “14 RCTs did not
      observed was support a substantial
      not statistically effect on
      significant.” transmission.”

    3. “3030 participants were randomly assigned to the recommendation to wear masks, and 2994 were assigned to control; 4862 completed the study”
      The other 1,162 didn’t fit the narrative

      1. Pretty much all studies have people fall out before the end. It doesn’t mean anything unless you can point to a specific pattern.

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    4. Nassim Taleb on the Pandemic

      Russ Roberts: So, this–I’m going to talk about masks for a minute because what I found fascinating about it, in thinking about these kind of issues of risk generally: If you tell people that if you wear a seatbelt you might drive less carefully, they laugh at you. They say, ‘Nobody pays attention. That’s ridiculous.’ But, those same people, for some reason, when we started to suggest that wearing masks was a good idea, ‘Oh, no, no, no. There’s all these other facts. You might touch your face more. You might think you’re safer than you really are,’ which is like the seat belt argument. They said, ‘It’s not scientific. There’s no evidence. There are no studies. There’s no clinical data on mask-wearing.’ And, I’m thinking, ‘Why is clinical data the only kind of evidence that is acceptable?’

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Okay. Yeah. So–

      Russ Roberts: It’s absurd.

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: After 20 years of working with uncertainty–and, more than 20 years, of course, but, 20 years of publishing to it, I finally wrote a piece that has a sentence that summarizes everything I’ve struggled to explain. In my debate with John Ioannidis, I came up with a sentence: ‘Science is not about evidence. Science is about properties.’ It’s not about [crosstalk 00:23:59] forecast.

      Russ Roberts: Explain. Explain.

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: So, science is about understanding something. So, it’s not about details.

      For example, if you have absence of evidence, all right, it’s still scientific to describe a process–

      Russ Roberts: That this virus goes in your nose, and it comes out of your nose. So, if you cover your nose, and the guy across from you covers his nose, maybe it’ll reduce–I mean, that just seems–

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Exactly. It is scientific. It’s scientific to say, ‘Let’s wear masks.’ Because, if your decision–if you map your decision-making abilities or the decision-making–sorry–the rationale–in a scientific way, then you would get results that are very formal. But, this naive, evidence-based science is not there in sophistication yet, to grasp that. And, we’re all interested in details about forecasting. But, science is not–

      Russ Roberts: Hey, but wait a minute–

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: about forecasting single events. Science is about understanding the properties of stuff–

      Russ Roberts: Let’s talk about that. Yeah.

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: which may or may not include forecasting.

      Russ Roberts: But, one second. I just want to add this famous, sort of onion-like example, which is: There’s no clinical data on whether it’s unsafe to jump from an airplane without a parachute at 35,000 feet. Right? So, when someone says, ‘Should you put on a parachute or not?’ you could say, ‘Well, there’s no evidence that it helps.’ But, we understand gravity. We understand logic, and we would understand that you don’t need a clinical study, and–

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: And, you understand asymmetry. You understand asymmetry.

      And, this is what I’m saying, is that integrating in your decision-making rigorous science includes taking into account the asymmetry, the payoff asymmetry: that, the harm you’re going to get from wearing a parachute is vastly inferior, potentially, than the benefits you may get for it. That’s it. Simple.

      Russ Roberts: Right. It’s the same with the mask, right? The mask is a little bit uncomfortable. It’s a little bit hot. It costs $8. It’s a bargain.

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: What do you mean it costs $8? You can make masks for 45 cents, using–

      Russ Roberts: Yeah. 50 cents.

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Listen–coffee filters work.

      Russ Roberts: Yeah. You can also–I probably mentioned this before–get on YouTube and Google, or search, for ‘sock, mask, scissors,’ and you’ll find a way to make a mask just with a pair of scissors and a single sock. It’s phenomenal.

      Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Yes.

      1. They could have just said “Let’s talk about the precautionary principle” up front and saved a lot of time.

        1. Sad thing is WK thinks that principle has scientific value.

      2. Hahaha, I am gonna stop using coffee filters for brewing my coffee, because there is no clinical data that the coffee filters filter out all particulates.

        1. How cute. You think viruses are the size of coffee granules. You also deny the multi decades of research showing no correlation between masks and respiratory diseases. And you think this makes you look intelligent.

          Go ask Lisa about her tiger rock.

      3. Is there clinical data on using tennis rackets as umbrellas?

      4. It’s clear and obvious by simply WATCHING PEOPLE IN THE MASK that they touch their faces more with them on.

        Pretending this is a far-out theory is crazy. The mask doesn’t belong on your face, so you fuck with it. Even Joe Biden doesn’t often go a full minute without doing it.

        1. It’s ok as long as you wash your hands before touching literally anything else.

          1. Holy crap.

  4. Immunity to the Coronavirus May Last Years, New Data Hint
    Blood samples from recovered patients suggest a powerful, long-lasting immune response, researchers reported.

    How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study — the most hopeful answer yet to a question that has shadowed plans for widespread vaccination.

    Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

    The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.

    “That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study.

    1. So my predicted endgame of “annual COVID vaccine” might end up being “semi-decadal COVID vaccine.” Bad news for Moderna, good news for the rest of us.

    2. We knew this about first-round SARS right away. People are still immune a decade + later.


    is closing most “non-essential” businesses. This is an emergency that needs action, so they are waiting until Friday.

    We should trust a govt body that can’t keep their website online. Their website and transparency are classified as a non-essential operation.


    Here’s another contributing factor as to why reported hospitalizations have increased:

    Per updated (10/6) HHS guidelines, patients occupying “Observation” beds (>8hrs) are now included in Hospital admission totals.

    They were not counted as admissions in July’s guidelines…

    1. Any chance they are also admitting more people for “observation” for some reason? It sounds like when covid gets bad it does so quickly, so maybe they are taking more people in just to be safe. (Or maybe they’re trying to make up all that revenue they lost when elective procedures tanked.)

      1. Or maybe they’re trying to make up all that revenue they lost when elective procedures tanked.)
        Ding ding!


    Just 0.05% of healthy under-70s who get Covid-19 will die from the disease, study claims
    True fatality rate of coronavirus is unknown because many are never diagnosed
    Stanford University expert said in an old report he thought death rate was 0.25%
    Now believes only one in 2,000 people under the age of 70 die of the disease

  8. It seems that, right now, the main difference between the two vaccine candidates is that the Pfizer one needs extremely cold storage conditions (-70C, very cold), whereas the Moderna one has more easily achieved requirements (-20C, aka a residential freezer).

    1. They’ll use the Pfizer one to inoculate large groups, like all the workers at a given hospital or elder care facility, so they don’t have to send low temp freezers everywhere.

      Then they’ll use the Moderna one for individual inoculations of high risk people at their normal point of care. Every doctor’s office and pharmacy can handle the Moderna one.

      There are a number of other vaccines in the works too. They’ll be coming online at some point too.

      1. Thank goodness we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s go!

        1. Most would have preferred to never resort to panic porn for something that has the same relative risk as driving to work daily if you are under 60.

          But you seem to like authoritarian hammers for every nail.

      2. That is precisely what I was thinking. All of the small local pharmacies we design have ‘residential style’ fridge/ freezer capabilities, but we haven’t done one with a deep freeze yet that I’m aware of.

        So the one is better suited to hospitals and clinics, while the other can be distributed to local pharmacies and doctor’s offices.

  9. I say get going with it! Time to start sticking needles in peoples’ arms and getting us past this thing!

    1. You first.

      1. Certainly! Sign me up. I’m sick of this disease, I’m sick of armchair experts, I’m sick of actual experts, I’m sick of pundits and prognosticators, I’m sick of the ad nauseum arguments about masks, and comparability to flu, and infection rates, and death rates, and what country is better than what country, and “muh freedoms” conspiracies, and overly eager authoritarians, and the ever changing information, and the lack of information, and so on and so forth.

        Stick me in the arm and let me go on living my life away from the stupid that COVID has generated in our society.

  10. After trashing and campaigning against Trump for the past six months, Ronald Bailey still hasn’t acknowledged that it was Trump’s leadership that made it possible for all these vaccines that Bailey now praises.

    Neither Biden nor Harris could have achieved these results this quickly.

    1. Some counties, states and/or regions of the US may naturally achieve herd immunity before any vaccines will be made available in limited quantity (around 20 million units per vaccine).

      Percent of residents who have tested positive for covid
      (note that rates have doubled during the past two months in many states)
      North Dakota – 8.6%
      South Dakota – 7.6%
      Iowa – 6.1%
      Wisconsin – 5.8%
      Nebraska – 5.3%
      Utah – 4.9%
      Idaho – 4.7%
      Illinois – 4.7%
      Tennessee – 4.6%
      Montana – 4.6%
      Mississippi – 4.5%
      Alabama – 4.5%
      Arkansas – 4.5%
      Louisiana – 4.4%
      Kansas – 4.3%
      Rhode Island – 4.2%
      Florida – 4.1%
      Missouri – 4.1%
      Georgia – 4.0%
      Nevada – 4.0%
      Oklahoma – 4.0%

      1. We are not even remotely close to herd immunity anywhere in this country.

        1. Some evidence.

          Several studies (including one by CDC) have estimated that TEN TIMES more people have been infected with Covid than have tested positive for Covid.

          And most experts agree that herd immunity occurs after about 70% of the population is infected (and/or is vaccinated) with a corona virus.

          1. from Jacob Sullum today
            “A new estimate of COVID-19 prevalence in Texas, the second-most populous state, suggests that the true number of infections is more than four times as high as the official tally.”

            If all counties and states had an infection rate four times higher than their case rate (i.e. those that test positive), some counties and states will be very close to herd immunity (if their new cases continue increasing at a similar rate) in several months.

      2. The most important covid news story today is a Belgian study found that wearing three layer surgical masks for one month whenever outside one’s home did NOT reduce the rate of new covid infections (compared to a control group that didn’t wear masks)

        Perhaps as important, it took four months for the authors to get this completed study published in a peer reviewed journal.

        1. Back in September, a CDC study found that 71% of Americans who tested positive for covid reported ALWAYS wearing a mask in public places for the preceding two weeks, and another 14% who tested positive reported OFTEN wearing masks.

          But CDC’s study buried that key finding (in just one sentence and at the bottom of the data sets), and CDC never issued a press release to notify the news media of this study’s key finding
          (almost certainly because its finding contradicted CDC’s guidance urging everyone to wear masks, and CDC’s ongoing assertion that masks are very effective and essential for preventing covid transmissions).

          Rather, a reporter at the Federalist discovered and exposed the CDC study’s key finding in October, and Tucker Carlson reported it that same day on his show on Fox News. I’m not aware that any other news media have reported CDC’s study findings.

      3. Given that:
        – Many more people have been exposed than have tested positive.
        – We’re seeing a million new confirmed cases a week.
        – Normal, healthy people won’t be able to get a vaccine dose until probably Spring at the earliest.

        You’re probably right that we’ll be near herd immunity in much of the country before the vaccine has been widely administered. It’s still a good idea to get going on healthcare workers and vulnerable people as soon as possible, though.

        1. It’s still a good idea to get going on healthcare workers and vulnerable people as soon as possible, though.
          You first.

    2. This is a libertarian publication. If you want to hear about how its actually the government that deserves credit for the achievements of private individuals you could head over to Mother Jones or perhaps the Daily Beast

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      2. Yeah all the government really has done is to stop interfering the way it normally does. You can’t really give credit to a bully who temporarily stops bullying. At the same time, I’m not sure Biden would have lifted the restrictions as early and thoroughly as Trump did, so Trump, specifically, deserves some credit here.

        1. That’s the point. Someone asked here a short while ago for some significant example or consequence from the Trump administration’s deregulatory campaign. Could you see a more spectacular one than this? I’m just afraid that’d all come to a halt when Trump leaves office. But maybe not. Maybe the bureaucrats who are in see the value of deregulation now and will continue it. Still took Trump to get the ball rolling, though.

  11. If this stuff really works, could it be long before we have a vaccine against the common cold that really works? Or at least against the ~15% of colds that are from coronaviruses?

    1. If the mRNA tech works the way they think it will, there are a lot of potential benefits:
      – Annual Flu Vaccines that are effective against up to 20 different variants simultaneously and can be regionally tailored
      – Childhood vaccination regimens decreasing to just 2 shots instead of the 20+ currently
      – Faster and more effective vaccine development for future viruses

      But, I’m not sure that a vaccine against the cold will be among them. There are just too many different viruses that cause colds. Maybe AIDS? Herpes? Ebola?

  12. Great news from my CEO, we are expecting the first shipment of vaccine next week!

  13. Could you spot a extra spectacular one than this? I’m just afraid that’d all come to a halt while Trump leaves office. But maybe not. Maybe the bureaucrats who are in see the value of deregulation now and will continue it. Still took Trump to get the ball rolling, though.

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