Election 2020

Will Trump Beat the Odds? Are You Willing to Bet on It?

Betting sites have a better record of predicting election outcomes than most polls and pundits.

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Donald Trump will probably lose the election.

As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8% chance of winning.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump's win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12% chance.

But people who "put money where their mouths are" give Trump a better chance: 37%.

That's according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the website I created with Maxim Lott. It tracks multiple betting sites around the world.

Though 61%-37% seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37% means Trump is likely to win one-third of the time.

Four years ago, most bettors were wrong about Trump and Brexit. I assume they learned from that and adjusted their 2020 bets.

But since bettors were wrong in 2016, why trust betting odds now?

Because betting is a better predictor than polls, pundits, statistical models and everything else.

ElectionBettingOdds.com has tracked hundreds of races. When bettors think a candidate has a 37% chance—they really do win roughly that often.

A research scientist at Amazon concluded that in the last presidential election, ElectionBettingOdds.com beat all other existing public prediction models except for Nate Silver's polls-plus model.

Silver says: "Betting markets are populated by people with a sophomoric knowledge of politics… Traders are emotionally invested in political outcomes." Also, "Markets (are) not super liquid… way different than sports where you have a much more sophisticated player base and more liquidity."

But our site takes odds from betting sites in Europe, the U.S. and a cryptocurrency-based exchange. More than $200 million has been bet.

As Silver says in his excellent book, The Signal and the Noise, "A lot of smart people have failed miserably when they thought they could beat the market."

Overall, bettors have the best track record. Last election, The New York Times' "expert model" had Hillary Clinton ahead 85% to 15%. The Princeton Election Consortium gave Clinton a 99% chance. (Now they give Biden 98.2%.)

Daily Kos had Clinton at 92%. Huffington Post had 98%. Those two stopped operating models after that embarrassment.

Silver is one modeler who's often beaten the market. In 2016, he gave Trump the highest odds, and in 2018, he was the most confident that Democrats would win the House.

On the other hand, his FiveThirtyEight model was confident Democrats would win Florida's and Indiana's Senate races, making Democrats 70% favorites in both states. But Republicans won. Bettors were closer to predicting the actual results.

Bettors do well because they consider many things not easily captured by polls and statistical models.

How many mail-in ballots do not get counted? In the New York state primary this year, 20% were disqualified for irregularities.

FiveThirtyEight "built in an extra layer of uncertainty this year because of the possibility that the pandemic will disrupt usual turnout patterns." But bettors believe it's not enough.

Bettors also consider the possibility that polls are wrong in some new way.

In 2016, polls showed Clinton well ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but pollsters hadn't questioned enough voters without college degrees. Who knows what mistakes pollsters are making now?

Betting sites' track records also do well because bettors invest their own money. That focuses the mind.

Today, bettors make other interesting predictions:

They say there's a 56% chance a COVID-19 vaccine will be approved by March 31, and a 22% chance that Trump will pardon himself during his first term.

They give 50/50 odds that this year be the hottest year on record.

The Kansas City Chiefs (17%) and Baltimore Ravens (13%) have the best chance to win the Super Bowl, but since their total is only 30%, some other team is likely to win.
Back to politics, ElectionBettingOdds.com's Senate map predicts Democrats will retake the senate, and might even sweep every contested state.

If that happens, Democrats would have the power to end the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court and pass their whole agenda with simple majorities.

As a libertarian, I sure hope that doesn't happen.

I'll keep watching the odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com. They update every 5 minutes.

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  1. If the bets are wrong and Trump retains the presidency, then the Republicans keep the Senate.

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    2. Trump is not running for the Senate.

      1. Joe Biden apparently is.

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      2. Yeah but Biden is. He said so himself.

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      3. If Trump does well, it’s likely that Republicans are doing well across the board (and vice-versa). So yeah, a Trump presidential win is likely (not guaranteed, just likely) to coincide with Republicans keeping the senate.

        The converse is also true. If Biden wins, the degree to which he won is likely to coincide with the degree that Democrats take the senate by. If he gets a squeaker, then a Democrat senate majority is significantly less likely. If he gets a blow-out, a solid Democrat senate majority is is pretty likely.

        Rising tides lift all boats and all that jazz.

        1. A Joe Biden blow out is in my opinion, highly unlikely. A squeaker for Joe Biden could result in the Democrats only gaining 1 or 2 Senate seats net, not enough to create a Democrat majority in the Senate.

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    3. I’d take Trump and 85 losing electoral votes, but certainly not Trump straight up. And as for any Jones here about the media or the poll aggregators like 538, if you lose you don’t blame the bookies.

      I happen to be an Ohio Democrat and I’ve already voted. Has anybody commenting here already voted? You have to spend some time and effort to do it, and I frankly think time and effort is in short supply here. So prove me wrong. I’d love it. Unlike Republicans, I want everyone who can vote to vote. Including those I despise as fools. Do any of you? That really IS part of being a good American.

      Biased media or not, in Ohio you have to declare Party affiliation to vote for candidates in primaries and it’s registered with the elections workers. Independents can be ignored for my purposes.

      So when the Secretary of State says that Democrats are outvoting Republicans 2 to 1 in the early voting here, they KNOW what they’re talking about, it’s evidenced based, and so far as the media goes neither the New York Post nor the New York Times have solid evidence from anybody about the actual election.

      The Secretary of State is Republican here, by the way.

      1. And the Secretary of State’s remarks are one of the bad things about all this early voting. For instance as a republican is he saying that Democrats are voting more in order to mobilize more republicans? What happened to the polls being closed before we knew anything about how the votes were actually counted. Yes on election day the “news” stations to exit polling but actual official statements have, I believe, been disallowed in all states because they can affect the vote. This election is going to be a ShSh.

  2. OK then bet big on it. I ask this of every liberal left winger democrat to bet on the election. At least a $1000. If you’re so willing there are bookies who will take that bet. Make it real. If not, then you’re a fucking lying shill piece of shit. You don’t believe in it.

    1. The Lefties wanted Hillary to win so bad, evidently people put money up to back up their delusions with cash. They lost.

      Election 2020, same thing. Lefties want Biden to win so bad they have to use the same delusion to make it happen.

      Trump’s winning reelection and the GOP is gaining seats in the US Senate.

      Also Barrett is being confirmed to the SCOTUS. Thomas will be replaced by Trump and Breyer will probably die and be replaced by Trump.

      1. If you lose will you go away? That would slightly renew my interest in this election.

        1. I know that when Trump wins reelction unreason staff will cry for weeks but their bots like you will churn out lame replies.

    2. Do you place large bets on everything you think is likely to happen?

    3. Calm down

      1. (Grabs Valium and nice glass of Merlot).

        1. I recomend that you pair benzodiazepines with a chilled white wine.
          And AC/DC tunes

    4. A leftist betting his/her own money? No way–never gonna happen. IF they bet, it’ll be by using taxpayer dollars taken by force from others. That’s the leftist way.

    5. So are you putting your money where your mouth is? $1000 on Trump?

  3. The two indicators that should have clued us in that Trump would win in 2016 were the S&P 500 and the Gallup survey showing the American people’s faith in the media hitting new lows just weeks before the election in 2016.

    When the S&P 500 is higher on election day than it was three months prior, the incumbent party wins. When the S&P 500 is lower, the incumbent party loses. That general rule has been correct 20 out of the last 23 presidential elections (87% of the time).

    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-correctly-predicted-next-president-biden-donald-trump-election-2020-6-1029351214#

    The same factors that make investors optimistic or pessimistic about earnings also, apparently, make swing voters optimistic or pessimistic about the incumbent party. Hell, the S&P 500 may be reacting to consumer confidence in that period as reflected in retail sales, oil prices, etc. After all, consumers are voters, too.

    Point being, the S&P 500 is currently higher than it was three months before November 2nd (3295 to 3443). In 2016, the S&P 500 was down over the three months before the election, and Hillary Clinton lost.

    The other thing that we should have seen coming in 2016 was that the public’s opinion of the news media hit new historic lows in the weeks before the election–as measured by Gallup. Because the news media was talking about little else but Trump at the time, we should have sen the public’s opinion of the news as a counter-indicator of how they were buying the media’s narrative on Trump at the time. This election, the numbers aren’t as bad because Democrats are lapping the coverage up. The interesting thing is that Independents are tracking Republicans on their opinion of the news this time, the latter of which is even lower now than it was in 2016.

    64% of independents either had very little trust in the news media or none at all as of September 30. (Link below) That isn’t as high as the 89% of Republicans who had little or no trust in the news media but it’s a hell of a lot higher than the Democrats, who only 27% of which had little or no trust in the media. I suspect that 64% of independents not buying the media narrative probably doesn’t auger well for Biden–since the media narrative on Biden is all about him winning.

    P.S. Still, if I had to bet, I’d bet against Trump winning–and it’s all about the economy and the pandemic, which still isn’t his fault. If it hadn’t been for the pandemic, he’d be cruising to victory right now. And one of the things I’m looking at this year is what’s happening in other countries all over the world. From Chile and Bolivia to Belarus and from Thailand to Nigeria, people are in open rebellion against their governments because of the pandemic and the economy. It’s like the revolutions of 1848, the protests of 1968, and the populist revolts circa 2016 in Brexit, France, Germany, and the USA. We imagine that the forces that drive our politics happen in our own little cocoon, but the economic forces driving our politics are driving the whole world at the same time. It’s wrong. It should be happening, and I wish it weren’t. Still, the same train is running over everybody right now. It’s a shitty time to be an incumbent.

    1. > P.S. Still, if I had to bet, I’d bet against Trump winning–and it’s all about the economy and the pandemic, which still isn’t his fault.

      Yes, Bill Clinton said one true thing in his life, and it was “It’s the economy, stupid”.

      Still, it’s not all the economy. And people know it’s not Trump’s direct fault that a virus happened. Still, plenty enough bungling all around that his administration gets part of the blame for mishandling. As another past president said about the economy, “The buck stops here”. He can whine that it wasn’t his fault, or he can step up to play the hand dealt to him. He chose to blame the governors. Plenty there to blame, but it’s not at all presidential.

      If he loses, and the odds are very high that he will, then expect four years of blaming external factors for his loss.

      Maybe the economy would have been better if he hadn’t been spending like a drunken Democrat for four years. That Hillary would have spent even more is irrelevant. A fiscal conservative would have at least held the level of spending to the rate of GDP growth. Which hasn’t been great. The pandemic was a bummer, but he could have been decisive in early testing and not vacillating over its seriousness. He could have ridden herd on the FDA and CDC, which had major fuckups of their own.

      Jeepers cripes, FDR won reelection three times during the midst of a massive depression (which he helped prolong) and once during the deprivations of a world war. He didn’t do it bey whining that it wasn’t his fault. He didn’t do it by blaming the governors. Yes, he did largely blame fat cat businesses to play to populist sentiment, but he was not actively alienating half the electorate.

      1. You seem to be missing the point that it’s the same everywhere.

        When FDR was president, the American people rallied behind him–like they rallied behind Chiang Kai-shek, Franco, Hirohito, Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin. At that time, people all the world over were rallying behind strong central governments with strong authoritarianish leaders–for more or less the same reasons that weren’t especially peculiar to any of them.

        We imagine that the things happening in our country are happening for our own unique reasons, but just like in the revolutions of 1848, the protest movements of 1968, the populist revolts of 2016, etc., etc., the things that are happening in the United States are also happening all over the world–for more or less the same reasons.

        If President Trump has boarded the windows differently, the hurricane would have blown our house off its foundation anyway.

      2. It was James Carville who wrote “ it’s the economy stupid” which became a Clinton campaign slogan.

      3. My wife just early voted in Georgia today. She never wants a democrat near power again after finally seeing first hand from biden and harris and SJWs want to do.

        1. She has never voted.

          Democrats are in serious trouble.

          1. I really hope your right but all polling appears to show that it is women from suburbia who could be the demise for Trump. I’ve never seen anything weirder. This White wokeness will be the end of us all. Minorities are voting for Trump at much higher rates than before at the same time that woke white suburban women are moving away from Republicans in order to protect these same minorities who are moving away from the Democrats.

      4. You think the economy would have tanked if the states hadn’t locked down?

    2. Voter enthusiasm matters too, and Biden is generating very little of that. 4 years ago, signs of Clinton support were everywhere (here in California). I see only one Biden sign in my whole neighborhood this year.

      1. there may be something to this, but i also think 4 years of everyone going in sane has made the average joe less likely to show support for anyone out of fear of retaliation

        i see posts all the time on next door about people saying their house/car was vandalized because they had a particular sign out.

  4. Have already bet on Trump. Already made money betting against Bernie.

    1. Democrats are trying to forget how they fucked over Bernie and are delusional that Bernie Bros wont hold it against Biden.

      1. Look how much sympathy you have for a self-described socialist. It’s almost like you have no actual thoughts and are a Russian troll.

        1. Tony, the poor little unreason troll.

          Trump’s reelection is gonna be great!

        2. Sympathy has nothing to do with it.

          After twice in a row that the DNC has shot him down, I see nothing to indicate that more Bern-Outs will come to vote this time than last time. A local business which had a huge Bernie sign on the front wall took it down, but has not put any Biden signs up.

          In a city which went strongly for Hillary, I’m seeing few Biden yard signs and bumper stickers.

          1. The alliance between Marxists and the far right shows that economic policy was never what any of this was about. Poor libertarian nerds who really really wanted economics to matter.

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  9. Trump will win, hands down. Literally the only thing showing a Biden lead is voter intention polling of likely and registered voters. There are dozens of caveats to election polling though, and they appear to be increasingly useless and imprecise nowadays.

    Otoh, we have various other signs, models and even polls, all indicating that a Trump win all but guaranteed. Just a couple things to name from the top of my head:
    – expectation polling i.e. most people expect Trump will be the winner
    – incumbent advantage
    – Trump’s supporters’ enthusiasm is off the charts
    – in-party approval of Trump is record breaking
    – Trump’s approval rating, last time I checked on Gallup, is 3 points away from its highest (49%), and no other POTUS lost reelection with a 40+ approval rating
    – Moody’s economic models (7 outta 9 is betting on Trump, while the 2 Biden win expects record high non-incumbent turnout, which is unlikely)
    – some 56% of people is positive on the Trump economy
    – riots and destruction makes people more conservative
    – 66% of Hispanic viewers on Telemundo said Trump won the debate, and various other Hispanic polls indicate record high support for the President (Catholic SCOTUS is another big plus)
    – even Jews are on +6% Trump support, not surprisingly perhaps knowing Trump is the best thing that ever happened to Israel in the past 50 years
    – and Blacks are also converging toward the Trump train, with a support of anywhere between 12-40% (and even 12% is waaay too bad for the Ds)
    – the enthusiasm gap had never been wider, literally nobody knows/cares/likes Biden, while Trump is a living god to some, adorned by millions since the 80’s
    – preliminary data on early voting shows big trouble for Team D… they are way behind compared to “the polls”
    – we can delve into some Pew research too, all of them pointing to Trump such as most of his supporters consider him a leader, while Biden is “just not him”, most Biden supporters main concern is their candidate’s health, etc… pitiful results for Team D on all fronts
    – Team D once again proved their utter incompetence… their mail-in-scheme was supposed to drive up turnout… well, turns out their voters are much less likely to be able to vote properly, so much so that Hillary and AOC was promoting IN-PERSON voting just a couple weeks ago, knowing that they’ll gonna be losing their invalid votes by the thousands. As always, Trump gulled them into this idiocy, I knew from day1 that m-i-v poses no threat to Trump. Not to mention the death of RBG, which all but sealed Trump’s win should it ever be pending on a recount.

    1. Plus another rule of thumb to add: some people say that the Ds are about to win not just the Presidency, but the House and Senate too. So basically, they’re saying that the Ds are about to make a landslide victory on all fronts in a year, when they had never been closer to the left than ever before. Kamala Harris, the planned-to-be-POTUS of this year is LITERALLY the biggest leftist in Senate today, even leftier than Bernie Sanders. So am I supposed to believe that the USA has become so leftist, that they’re about to chose the leftiest leftist troupe in the history of this country? Somewhat, I have a hunch that this is bs… and I would go as far as to say that Donald J. Trump can literally feast on fetuses on the 5th Avenue, and he’d still be the winner in a match-up, where both of his opponents (or technically, his real opponents plus a fleshpuppet) is as leftist as they come…

      1. Wish harder. You are delusional if you think Biden and Harris are far left.

        1. Biden is establishment center-left, but malleable. Harris is (CA establishment) hard-left, save for her anti-humanitarian record on criminal justice.

          1. Well we tried fascism so why not center-left?

            1. Left of Centrist Libertarianism is Socialism. Its why we call you guys Lefties dipshit.

            2. “Center-left” hasn’t existed in decades (Tip O’Neill was your last great example). So you’re back to Fascism (your VP candidate) and dementia (your POTUS candidate).

            3. I’ve been waiting for this “fascism” everyone is telling me about where each and every media outlet has been dissing on the current leader in power. The last time I checked, such opposition and dissent was crushed by fascists.

        2. Harris is pretty far left. Biden is a moderate, but he’s obviously being pulled left.

          1. Good. Trumpers’ worst fears coming true are why I get out of bed in the morning.

            But just ask an actual leftist what they think about Biden and Harris. They’re all voting just to clean the scum out of the White House, not for enthusiasm for the candidates.

            1. We got the scum out of the white house. Hillary clinton.

            2. Haha. That’s a really sad motivator for just getting out of bed. Says a lot.

              Everything is so terrible and unfair, eh ton?

      2. Wish I shared your confidence about Trump winning. He lost the popular vote in 2016. His loyal base is happy, but I fear that enough voters in the middle are just plain tired of Trump’s ridiculous boorish behavior that they’ll either stay home or vote for Biden. I don’t think COVID-19 death numbers would have been much – or perhaps any lower if somebody else had been in the White House – but there’s enough negative perceptions being had out there to take some more votes away from Trump. I agree that voter enthusiasm for Biden is low – most of my friends and family that have or will vote for Biden really just focus on expressing their hate for Trump – not why they like Biden or Harris. Back to Trump’s behavior – he was embarrassing in the first debate – and I believe that too has cost him some votes.

        1. How many people do you know who have said that they won’t vote for Trump because he’s “boorish” . . ?

          How many people do you know who have said that they won’t vote for Trump because of the debate?

          The most I hear on this subject, the sentence goes something like “I’m going to vote for Trump, but I wish he would shut up.”

    2. I always add in how desperate Democrats get, the more THEY KNOW Trump will win.

      Why waste a bunch of money and exposure yourself as a Lefty liar if Biden is a guaranteed win? Lefties are so desperate precisely because they know too that Trump is unstoppable.

      Rona couldn’t even get rid of Trump.

      1. Yes, basically everything they did in the past few days/weeks also confirm this. Why did FB and twatter go into a frenzy to stop the Hunter Biden story IF Biden is already +17 points ahead?! It awfully looks like he is not, in fact, +17 ahead… not even half of that, not even a tenth of that, perhaps…

        Also, my fav 10 million dollar question to lefties and Team D is: can they name anything, I mean any other thing pointing to a Biden victory BESIDE the intention polling of likely/registered voters? Can they name literally any OTHER thing aside from ‘muh polls’? I never get an answer to that question…

        1. The MSM and unreason wont admit it but many Americans have tied closed businesses and Wuhanvirus restrictions to Democrats as solely responsible.

          Democrats will pay at the ballot box.

          1. Voters also saw the mostly peaceful protestors looting and burning in multiple cities, and the Democrats endorsing the lawlessness and destruction rather than condemning it, then rejecting federal help to restore order when offered by the President. And then heard the Democrats saying one solution to systemic racism is to make suburban neighborhoods more diverse. It’s one thing to support social justice on Twitter, it’s another thing to have a bunch of new social justice warriors moving into your quiet neighborhood.

        2. The electoral map doesn’t look good for the senate seats that are in play. Politics are local, candidates not at the top of the ticket matter, and Team Red has shit the bed in winnable places like Arizona.

          How’s that work for ya’?

    3. See, this is what a bubble is. In your little bubble Trump is wildly popular. In my little bubble (the state with the most electoral votes) he’ll be lucky to get 20% of the popular vote. His ardent supports are enthusiastic, but I don’t see the GOP rank and file in general being all that enthusiastic. Sure, he’s there team and they will root for him, but they’re not going wild over him. And outside your bubble, no one is expecting him to win.

      Go read the article. Even th betting pools, which are more accurate than the pollsters, have him at only 37%. Meaning they’re betting on Biden. That thundering applause you hear from him might just be echos from the bubble walls.

      1. You should have focused on any one of my points, instead of starting to claim that I live under a bubble.

        Furthermore, it’s laughable that you bring up the betting odds which were – along with the vast majority of the intention polls – were wrong in 2016. So, again, it may sound good that “people place money where they mouth is”, but in reality… it’s not always like that, and they can still be idiots, just as there were millions of idiots betting on the wrong horse numerous times in the past.

      2. In my “bubble”, I’d guess Trump losing. Because most of my neighbors have Biden signs.

        But my son’s middle school did a mock vote that Trump won in a landslide. Guess what middle schoolers’ politics mirror? That’s right – their PARENTS. Miami, The Villages, Ocala, San Francisco, Tampa, countless central locations are having a wild array of parades. The only thing the left has shown up en masse to do is burn down minority neighborhoods and main street. Kudos.

        That’s not my bubble.

      3. “Your bubble” is wrong. It’s why trump won in 2016 and will win in 2020.

        All that smug has rotted your brains.

      4. Clinton beat Trump 62 to 32 percent in 2016. No way Biden gets a bigger share of the vote than Clinton did. He’s much less popular, much less compelling and much less charismatic, which is saying something.

        1. in California

      5. The state with the most electoral votes went to Hillary last time. It doesn’t matter how many votes Trump gets there, he’s not going to win it this time either. This makes you pretty much unimportant, just like last time, because you’re not the ONLY state with electoral votes.

        I’m in a swing state. Last time around, the three largest metro areas went to Hillary (and the rest of the state to Trump). This time — thanks to the economic damage our Democrat governor and Dem-controlled state houses have done — two of those three just don’t seem to have a lot of enthusiasm for Dems.

  10. “Will Trump Beat the Odds? Are You Willing to Bet on It?”
    The real question is does it even matter? With our debt and budgets greater than the GDP, how long before the economic and political collapse?

  11. I think the imbroglio of Hunter’s Hard Drive will have an impact on the election. The more that comes out, seemingly daily, the more the impact.

    One issue….over 40 million have already voted. They voted not knowing about this scandal involving Brain-Damaged Biden. Why? Because the MSM deliberately buried the story.

    1. What has come out to date is a Russian initiated smear and it will likely get deeper as time passes. Those 40 million who voted include Republicans who have not seen how Republicans are starting to break with Trump.

      1. “Russian initiated smear” . . .yeah, you just keep telling yourself that, while you try to figure out what skills Hunter Biden had which made him vital to the interests of an energy company in Ukraine.

      2. I don’t understand how sane individuals think that they can just shout Russia for 4 years and get away with it… You think Boilermakers in PA voted for Trump because of Russia? Come on…

  12. “But people who “put money where their mouths are” give Trump a better chance: 37%.”

    1-800-522-4700

  13. “If that happens, Democrats would have the power to end the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court and pass their whole agenda with simple majorities.

    As a libertarian, I sure hope that doesn’t happen.”

    Your coworkers give zero fucks about any of that. They want their beltway lib friends to gain power so they can go back to pretending drone strikes arent happening and selling our future to China

    1. It’s the MIC that hates Trump most of all. The MIC isn’t just those who sell bullets and bombs to the Pentagon, it’s all the carpetbaggers who feast on turmoil and chaos in foreign countries, those who profit like Hunter Biden on selling access to power. Donald Trump has disrupted their business, they want a return to “normalcy” that Biden promises, endless meddling in foreign countries that disrupts the ongoing corruption and allows for new corruption to move in. It’s all about the churn for these people.

      Look at Iraq for example. When we got rid of Saddam Hussein, we also got rid of all his cronies who ran all of Iraq’s business dealings. Iraq was, to a certain extent, a kleptocracy, corruption was the order of the day. Who is running all those businesses now? Is Iraq any less corrupt, any less of a kleptocracy than it was before? I doubt it – but it’s a new set of kleptocrats and there was shitloads of money to be made deciding who the new kleptocrats were going to be. Same with Afghanistan today, there’s a lot of shadowy figures making a lot of money dealing in power and influence and intrigue in Afghanistan. They don’t oppose our withdrawal from Afghanistan for such high-minded purposes as “national security” or “ensuring democracy for the Afghan people” or any of that nonsense, they’re making money and they don’t want to see that money train end. It’s as simple as that.

      1. endless meddling in foreign countries that disrupts the ongoing corruption and allows for new corruption to move in. It’s all about the churn for these people.

        Foreign policy pump and dumps? I never thought of it that way, but if you don’t mind, I’m going to use that one.

  14. Everyone knows the polls are wrong, though some won’t admit it. One person that will admit it, though, is Biden’s campaign manager:

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/10/17/biden-campaign-admits-the-polls-are-off-n2578277

    I don’t think it will be a landslide for Trump, but Trump’s going to take a solid win and bring the House and Senate along with him.

    1. I think Trump is picking up more EC than he did in 2016.

      1. No, I don’t see that. But I’d be happy if it happened. Roberts fucking the GOP just now, means PA Democrats have two to three extra days to print up whatever they need to make that state Blue. That’s a 20 EV loss right there. He won MI and WI by threads four years ago. Losing either or both of those wouldn’t be surprising, despite WI riots being an abject example of Democrat policies.

        OTOH, I think he wins bigger in FL, AZ, and flips MN. Those Iron Range mayors never break from DFL, and they endorsed Trump. So that brings 10 EV back. Maybe he flips NV if he’s doing that well with Hispanics? I’m thinking 280-258, something like that.

        Going to be nail-biting for awhile.

        1. I’d bet against him winning Arizona.

          1. Sad day in AZ if it turns blue. I’m going to be sick.

  15. Historical indicators are useful indicators right up until they aren’t. Who would have predicted in 1856 that the Republicans would win the Presidency in 1860? They’d never won an election before, why would they start now? Who would have predicted in 1932 that FDR would be elected for four terms? No other President had been elected for more than 2 terms. Who would have predicted in 1968 that Nixon would wind up resigning in disgrace? No other President had ever resigned before.

    The question is: Have things fundamentally changed or are we going to return to “normal”? A Trump re-election will indicate that we’re done with “business as usual” and we’re not going back, a Biden election will show we’re too scared to try something new and we want the comforts of the regular ass-fuckings that we’ve gotten used to.

    1. a Biden election will show we’re too scared to try something new and we want the comforts of the regular ass-fuckings that we’ve gotten used to.

      Perhaps, but I have a hard time believing that any attempt to return to some illusion of a status quo would work. The politically vanquished are becoming more and more unrelenting with each election cycle it would seem.

      1. They are desperate because politically they have become uncompetitive nationally.

      2. conservatives complained when Obama won, but they didn’t take to the streets to burn stuff down. only one side is escalating the threats and violence.

    2. I predicted Trump winning in 2016. You know why? Because he had multiple things going for him like outsider, wants a strong American economy and workforce, and fights neocons and Lefties.

      All that is still true but add in proven excellence at letting economy boom, stands up for America internationally, blocks illegals, and hasnt started any new wars.

      I can’t wait for the tears of Lefties when Trump gets reelected.

  16. Another thing is voter enthusiasm. The Dems have about as much of it for Biden as they do for white bread or a ford pinto, whereas Trump’s voters are much more excited about voting for him. Of course, the Dems are much better with turning out their voters and Trump has not really delivered a coherent message for why he should be re-elected, so for these reasons, I don’t think he will win. It won’t be a landslide for the Dems though.

    1. That means most Republicans will show up to the polls. Big deal. The democraphics are on the Democrats side, so what matters is if A) the Democrats show up in numbers to the polls, and B) if Trump can appeal again to the vast middle.

      A) seems likely. The fervor over getting the incumbent out is higher than I have ever seen in any presidential election. While Hillary was hated in 2016 by a significant percentage of her own rank and file, Biden is not hated. he may put people to sleep, but he’s not hated by his base.

      B) is the big decider here. And I don’t buy the idea that they’re all eating out of Trumps hands. I think the vast middle sees an incumbent who didn’t manage to enact a single one of his core campaign promises. The vast middle sees a tanked economy. Trump may blame the governors, may claim the buck never stopped at his desk, but the vast middle isn’t into the blame game like the partisan diehards are. They just know that the economy sucks and it’s time to cast a vote for or against more of the same.

      But we have an electoral college. Like in 2016 it’s not going to come down to the popular vote, it’s going to come down to a tiny handful of swing states.

      1. “I think the vast middle sees an incumbent who didn’t manage to enact a single one of his core campaign promises.”

        Really? The vast middle I talk to are thrilled that Trump has gone after China, because they’ve seen their respective manufacturing industries recover from the perpetual cost-saving downsizing. It’s one the biggest selling points. These are the working middle class that classically swing from blue-union voting to red-USA voting depending on the candidates. They are the ones that are showing up to his rallies and the ones with 4×6 Trump train flags on their pickup trucks.
        2020 is very very telling that we are hearing almost zero union support for Biden. Where are the unions this year? I think I know….keeping their heads low so they don’t piss off their Dem masters because they can’t get the membership enthused for Biden.

      2. What are the demographics that favor Democrats?

        Trump won in 2016.

        In 4 years, Americans have come to support Trump more and like what he is NOT doing and doing. Less illegals to vote Democrat. More and more Democrats have left the Party of slavery.

      3. Are you sure Clinton was more hated by Dems than Biden?
        Clinton got 55% in the primaries in 2016. Biden got 52%.

    2. The Dem enthusiasm is against Trump.

      1. There is a lot of anti-Trump enthusiasm….but is it primarily the zealots who would be voting for the Dem candidate no matter who was running?

        the elections are decided by the apathetic middle who dislike both sides. I really don’t see Biden getting them to the polls. Maybe even less then Clinton. Not sure Trump will either, but his enthusiasm in 2020 is more then 2016. Yes, the hatred of Trump is far far higher now, but I think its an increase of Dem hatred of Trump, not a broader set of people. we’ll see

        1. […] but is it primarily the zealots who would be voting for the Dem candidate no matter who was running?

          I can’t recall a single presidential election that had so many longstanding partisans endorse the other team’s guy.

          This year? The list of former Republican politicians and officials who have publicly endorsed Biden is… staggering. I’m not sure just how much influence they actually have, but that Trump has lost so many high-profile individuals is a sign that something isn’t right in GOP-land.

          1. The RINOs know they will get pushed out after trump wins reelection.

            A whole bunch of RINOs left or were voted out after Trump won in 2016. Republicans and Libertarians are sick of RINOs and LINOs sabotaging classical liberalism.

          2. They don’t really have much influence, and much of what they do is against them. What’s hilarious is that they don’t even realize it. At best, they’re like a 3-year-old, turning the steering wheel in his car seat and thinking that he’s driving. More of them are like an abusive spouse, who thinks that their victim won’t dare leave.

        2. And your own side staying home.

        3. voter enthusiasm is an even bigger deal this year than in past elections. it takes enthusiasm to go take your chances with COVID-19 at the polling place, or to fill out a mail-in ballot.
          Trump has less support in the population, but his supporters are much more enthusiastic. There is some hardcore anti-Trump enthusiasm on the left, but mostly among people who don’t vote at a high clip. And there is little genuine pro-Biden enthusiasm, and Harris was even less popular.

  17. In my opinion, only zealots speak to pollsters, because they want to virtue-signal on their position.
    Pro-Biden zealots love to pontificate to everyone on how righteous they are and will largely answer polling questions.
    Pro-Trump zealots love to pontificate….in private, to people they trust. A pro-Trump position can have consequences, and only those in deep-red areas are secure enough to publicly declare their support to pollsters.

    The polling is so deeply flawed that nothing can be taken from it. A Trump loss is just as likely as a Trump landslide. It will come down to enthusiasm and how much fraud the progs are able to pull with mail-in voting.

    1. The open bias throughout the MSM and any number of organizations is so flagrant that I cannot trust any source on this.
      They are committed to defeating him, so why wouldn’t they cherry pick, distort, and lit as necessary? In their view it’s all justified.

    2. No one is a pro-Biden zealot.

      1. many. because he isn’t Trump.

        I have neighbors with 12 Biden signs in their yard and Biden flags flying from trees. I doubt they can describe one thing about him, but they are pro-Biden zealots.

    3. I agree with the distinction between private and public preferences, especially when it comes to Trump.

      When the reaction to someone publicly admitting to being a Trump supporter is being called a white supremacist woman hating nazi and having your business or home vandalized, your campaign signs stolen, and the social media mob coming after you, there is no incentive for the average person to publicly espouse their support for Trump.

      I just found out THIS WEEK that MY WIFE (who voted Johnson in 2016) is voting Trump. When I gave her the surprised look, she told me that how he’s been treated, particularly by the media, disgusts her, and admits that although he’s not perfect, he’s done some very beneficial things like lowering taxes and brokered several peace deals no one thought was even possible.

      I suspect there are plenty of those types around as well.

      If you would have asked me a week ago, I would have said Biden wins bigly. But now I’m not sure he’s gonna win at all. Especially after seeing the massive discrepancy between the polls and the betting. Polls give him less than 10% chance across the board. The bettors give him 1 in 3. That definitely means the polls are either wrong, or are being cherry picked to hell as a means to drive voters, not as a way to predict outcomes. They’re meant to keep fence sitters at home, and I’m not sure they will.

      1. Pre-COVID, Trump was getting record turnout in GOP primaries where he was the only candidate. I think the media radically underestimates the enthusiasm of Trump’s supporters.

    4. you don’t even have to be Pro-Trump to get shit from people. I’m firmly in the “I’m not voting for Trump, but i’m not voting for Biden either” camp and still have to deal with assholes telling me why i’m hitler.

      1. Haha. Yup, I’m in that camp too. In a deep blue state.

        These people are fucking ugly.

  18. “I assume they learned from that and adjusted their 2020 bets.”

    You know what they say about assuming….

  19. I don’t think he can win.

    On the other hand, I didn’t think he could win the nomination in 2016. I didn’t think he could win the general either. So he could still pull this one off. Or rather, the electorate could still say “fuck you” to the Democrats again.

    This time around he’s the incumbent, but he’s still running the “I’m the outsider” campaign from 2016. Will it work? Will voters see him as the outsider? I’ve seen Facebook posts just this week praising him for being the outsider D.C. needs. People will meme what they want to meme, I guess. Still, he’s more of an outsider than Biden, who’s been in D.C. longer than the average voter has been alive. Literally.

    But what I also see is an electorate so caught up in their self-imposed bubbles that they can’t see the world outside. Democrats think Biden is wildly popular, even though he won the nomination by default. Republicans are so sure of Trump’s victory they don’t even bother campaigning to vast middle of undecided voters. I’m in California where there’s no way Trump can win, and know people who are convinced he will sweep the state. No one can see past their bubble.

    So I don’t think Trump can win. But this time around I won’t be surprised if he does. But I won’t put money on it. If you would, let’s get in touch and we’ll make a sizable wager.

    1. In my neighborhood (Northern Virginia) we are one of maybe 10% of houses that don’t have a Biden Harris yard sign. But drive an hour outside the D.C. metro area and its almost all Trump signs. Biden will win Virginia for sure because of the DC suburbs and I suspect there could be a number of Trump voters not bothering to vote because of this.

      1. In PA, only about 10% of houses of political signs. 5:1 for Biden in towns, 5:1 for Trump in outlying areas.

        It’s the 90% that don’t have signs that will decide the election.

      2. Really? Interesting. Here in MD suburbs I see zero lawn signs for either side.

        1. That’s pretty much my experience in central Kentucky.

          Though the state is red, the 2 biggest cities are solid blue, and I just don’t see very much support for either, which is a sign that Team Blue isn’t doing as well as they think.

      3. DC spillover into Northern VA is what turned the state reliably blue. NC and GA are going purple due to migration from blue states to more business-friendly environments, and SC may be next. Red border states AZ and TX are now in play due to the rapidly growing Southern immigrant population. We’re seeing a political realignment, and it doesn’t look good for Republicans. The only region they seem to be gaining ground is the Midwest.

        1. Here’s the thing about changing demographics, every states changes as Americans move, die, and have babies.

          California used to be solid Red. Georgia used to be solid Blue.

          I personally foresee the Democrat Party fracturing after this election into the most Commie elements and Black Americans that cant come to vote Republican.

          I really hope this leads to election 2024 being the GOP vs LP vs Socialists vs Green.

    2. “No one can see past their bubble.”

      And you sure as hell can’t trust the media, as openly biased as it has become.

      So all bets are off.

      1. Define “bias.” Well, define “news.” Actually, just touch your index finger to your nose and we’ll go from there.

        You get power and you spend the entire time whining. It’s fucking unreal.

  20. Fun fact: Biden winning Texas is twice as likely as Trump winning the election.

    I like that people are in denial. I am not a mean-spirited person, but after all the death and corruption and whining and all the obvious problems that would come with electing a severely mentally ill C-list reality TV guy as president, I think I need you idiots to cry a little.

    I’ve asked Santa for just one thing: Trump refuses to leave office. I want to see him dragged out by the military he’s shit on at every opportunity. I want it sloppy.

    1. I want it sloppy

      Porn term for being into scat – figures coming from Tony

    2. I am not a mean-spirited person

      Sounds like you’re turning over a new leaf, congrats.

      I think I need you idiots to cry a little… I want to see him dragged out by the military

      Uhh okay, maybe not then.

      I want it sloppy

      … OK definitely not.

      1. The only way cults go away is when their leader dies.

        1. Good to hear, Obama can’t live forever.

          1. See, a cult is when you put yourself in physical danger because your leader instructs it.

            I wonder if any of Trump’s rally attendees gives a single shit about the workers at the hospitals they are about to overwhelm with their own stupidity.

            1. i just cant figure out if you’re just being deliberate or actually believe the shit you post?

            2. That isn’t how “cult” is defined in the social sciences.

              1. It’s not a well-defined term in the social sciences.

        2. The only way cults go away is when their leader dies.

          ^What you say when you don’t know what the word ‘martyr’ means.

          1. I guess that could happen. Or Trump’s departure could be much like Regular Hitler’s, with everyone deeply ashamed of their ecstatic love of him.

            1. Yeah, the Germans were so ashamed of their heritage they wound up controlling Europe anyway.

            2. I guess you’re right, it could all be brushed away with a “What difference at this point, does it make?” like Chris Stephens’ death.

              I was just thinking that there are plenty of “cult” leaders who’s “cults” survive their death.

              1. Like every now major religion?

    3. I think I need you idiots to cry a little.

      I’m looking to offload some of my lefty-tear stockpile to make room for the 2020 vintage. *Still* plenty of tears to go around if you’re a little, or a lot, short.

      1. Lots of tears left and right from the families of the quarter million dead.

        1. Are you blaming every last COVID death on Trump (in 2016)?

          1. How many regular Americans are worth one Chris Stephens?

        2. I’m sure President Hillary wouldn’t have allowed the Trump virus to claim a single American life.

          1. Trump is blaming Biden for hypothetical swine flu deaths in an alternate universe, so we know how it would go.

            1. He also blamed Obama for the horrible mismanagement of the Ebola virus.

    4. Tony’s citations always fall off.

    5. Biden winning Texas has a 0% chance of occurring.
      Trump winning the election has probably around a 25% chance.

  21. Silver says: “Betting markets are populated by people with a sophomoric knowledge of politics… Traders are emotionally invested in political outcomes.”

    Do people like Nate Silver ever stop and hear themselves talk? Christ, what an asshole.

    Also, he’s completely wrong. I assume that people who operate betting houses for politics work similar to the way sports books work in that they set the odds in order to get even money bet on both outcomes so that regardless which “team” wins, the house always keeps half the money bet. Which means they can’t be “emotionally invested” in the outcome if they want to make sure the house always wins.

    1. Not just an asshole, a stupid asshole. Market speculators and sports bookies are emotionally invested in political outcomes that affect their bottom lines. He’s emotionally invested in appearing smarter than them. Multitudes of them could lose his entire net worth without sweating it, but he’s got this money thing figured out.

  22. The take away here is that Trump winning is a long shot. In 2016, the long shot won. Question is can you win two long shots in a row? Your in Vegas at the Craps table and your just won 8 the hard way. Do you take your money or let it ride?

  23. If Sleepy Joe actually does win, I wonder if they’ll be taking betting action on how many days he’ll actually serve as president before either dying or being removed in favor of Kamaltoe (and which one of the two it will be).

    1. I wouldn’t put up $5 at 20:1 in my favor that Biden will be able to speak coherently for an entire minute by January.

    1. Looks about as serious and legit as the one claiming to have a database full of addresses with Trump signs in their yard and threatening to burn all their houses down.

    2. Oh no! A crazy man wrote a letter! That doesn’t happen to EVERY president! That’s way worse than:

      -Rene Boucher
      -BLM and Antifa literally burning down cities
      -Michael Reinoehl
      -James Hodgkinson

  24. “Hunter Biden does not help put food on the table. Hunter Biden does not help anyone get a job. Hunter Biden does not provide health care or solve [the pandemic]. And Donald Trump spends all of his time focused on that, and nobody cares.”

    —Frank Luntz, a Republican from when they used to be good at this

    1. yeah but it could be considered hypocritical if the democrat party spent the last three years trying to impeach trump for bribing ukraine and then nominate someone for president who openly admitted bribing ukraine.
      i personally think the social unrest will be the deciding factor. trump was set to lose until the rioting started. look at the states were all the rioting took place. this bodes well for trump. biden may not be responsible for the unrest but the democrats response to it has really pissed off voters in states that biden has to win.

      1. … ?

        From the Ukraine call to impeachment was somewhere around 7 to 9 months. That’s no where close to “three years”.

        And if you look at the polling data, Biden is doing better now then he was at the beginning of May.

      2. If you really liked Trump you’d be pissed off at how stupid he’s being.

        Maybe the big meanie Leslie Stahl will get Americans to stop thinking about their jobs and houses.

        1. Maybe the big meanie Leslie Stahl will get Americans to stop thinking about their jobs and houses.

          The ones the Democratic governors nuked with their WuFlu hysteria?

          1. Name one thing Trump has done wrong that doesn’t use the word “tweet.”

            1. Shut down the economy and told 40 million people that they were “non essential”?

              No, wait, that’s not it……

      3. The Dems DIDN’T nominate someone who openly admitted to bribing Ukraine.

        The Dems nominated someone who openly admitted to EXTORTING Ukraine.

    2. Sure, Tony, nobody cares about foreign-power access to the Dems’ best hope for POTUS being sold by a doped-up, corrupt Less-Than-Honorable dischargee.

      1. It just came out that Trump owed more income tax to China than the US. You people are so fucking delusional it’s actually frightening.

        The quarter million dead Americans would think so too if they weren’t dead.

        1. I thought that people like you liked taxes? I didn’t know that owing taxes was corrupt?

          So, following the tax code to decrease your tax burden is corrupt, and NOT attempting to decrease your tax burden is ALSO corrupt…big brain thinking there…

  25. Reading all these comments of Trump supporters who are just so convinced that Trump is going to win, it’s really weird.

    Yes, predictions over who would win/lose in 2016 were largely wrong. But if you looked at the details (individual states), they weren’t wrong by much. Which is why Silver gave Trump the highest odds, because his model showed that Trump only needed to beat the polls a little bit to get an Electoral victory (which he did). But listening to President Trump and his supporters, you’d think that he won in a blow-out (he didn’t), beat the polls by huge margnis (he didn’t) and “really” won the popular vote (he didn’t).

    Reminds me of 2012, when Republicans/conservatives were so convinced that the polling on Obama v. Romney was so wrong, they made a meme out of it. “Unskewed Polls”. Any of y’all remember that? They drank their own Kool-Aid so hard that Karl Rove had an on-air meltdown on Fox.

    All of which is to say… a Trump win looks unlikely, but not impossible. But those of you acting like you’re assured of the outcomes (either way) are kind of nucking futs.

    1. Reading all these comments of Trump supporters who are just so convinced that Trump is going to win, it’s really weird.

      The only one who seems convinced that he’ll win is lc1789, and it would be a shock if he didn’t.

      Everyone else is looking at a toss-up.

    2. Good analysis. It is worth noting that Trump got lucky, equivalent of drawing an inside straight. Not something you can do every four years.

  26. So you’re saying there’s a chance!

  27. Voted today and the guy getting me all setup told me that a 1/3 of our county had already voted! I think both sides have droves of voters turning out this year…it will be interesting to see how election night goes and the likely shit show to follow.

    – side note, wife registered and voted for the first time ever. I bet there are a lot of peeps like her.
    – side side note…she didnt vote for Biden 😉

  28. GIGO.

    There is nothing like a controlled study here. Not even case control or cohort. Just some numbers off the internet.

    Worthless tabloid journalism.

  29. I’m not sure polling is the same as it used to be. How many people do you know answer their phone (or reply to text) on an unknown caller? How many people do you know that do not block unknown callers/texts that do not leave a message?

    I still believe Biden could win this. There are plenty of fat ass boomers, retired at 56, collecting a blue state gov’t union pension that need to be made whole by federal taxpayers. The number one priority of the Democrats!

    But…there is Trump’s twitter following numbers that are orders of magnitude above Biden and Harris combined. We will see.

    1. To rephrase “there are plenty of fat ass boomers, retired at 56, collecting a high six figure blue state gov’t union pension”. (forgot to add the high six figure retirement)

    2. “But…there is Trump’s twitter following numbers that are orders of magnitude above Biden and Harris combined. We will see.”

      In fairness, half of Trump’s Twitter followers are there to troll him, and Trump does his own Twitter. Nobody gives a damn what Joe Biden’s or Kamala Harris’ social media intern thinks.

    3. I have a friend who is one of those union-pension retirees.

      He bought his first gun about 6 months ago.

      When I pointed out that both members of the Harris/Biden ticket would outlaw and confiscate that carbine — and know where to find it, thanks to the background check that he had voted for — his perspective on the election changed.

      In 2016, his union fed them 6 months of Dem propaganda, and even bussed members to the polls. This year, the union has not made an endorsement (they got a few thousand new members thanks to Trump, then nearly the entire union is out of work thanks to the Dem governor who closed his state).

  30. It’s not that I think Trump will beat the odds, it’s that I think everyone putting odds on the election is full of shit.

    The betting markets might have a better record then pundits of predicting election outcomes, but that’s not really saying that much. No one has a great record of predicting election outcomes.

  31. I am surprised Stossel didn’t look to other polling means that have accurately predicted the outcome of past presidential elections in addition to prediction betting websites. This Pennsylvania bakery’s cookie sales have accurately done so for the last 9 presidential elections, and one candidate’s are selling like hotcakes. I’ll leave it to you all to read about which candidate it is.

    https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/pennsylvania-bakery-cookie-sales-predicted-presidential-elections

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  34. Who knows who will win the election next month. But I hope it’s not Trump. That doesn’t mean I’m a Biden supporter, just a Trump hater. I watched this video yesterday evening and all of the claims about Trump, I believe to be true.
    https://youtu.be/IQnlnk6Y7Kk
    I’m sure there are some here that won’t dare to even watch it for more than two seconds,. But will have a lot of negative opinions of it. I also heard that brainwashing has those effects on some. ????????????????

  35. “It’s the Russian” why does this years – hell past 4 years – sound just like an old Mel Brooks routine.

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