Coronavirus

WHO Joins Top Epidemiologists in Emphasizing Harm Caused by Lockdowns

Months into the pandemic, we’re finally getting a real debate over the right way to fight the virus.

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"We've got to follow the science," we're repeatedly told during the COVID-19 pandemic, usually by people arguing for the strict measures included in the broad category of "lockdowns." But what happens when scientists disagree with one another and don't adhere to one true faith in their recommendations for battling viral infection?

While there has been disagreement among scientists since COVID-19 appeared on the scene, opponents of the most restrictive measures have largely been sidelined. But now, insisting that "science" speaks with one voice is much harder, with a World Health Organization (WHO) official and the Great Barrington Declaration objecting to the pain inflicted by lockdowns and calling for less-draconian public health policies.

"We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus," David Nabarro, WHO special envoy for Covid-19, told Britain's Spectator magazine last week. "The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we'd rather not do it."

He pointed to the devastating worldwide elevation in rates of poverty and hunger as a result of restrictions imposed to fight the pandemic, saying that "lockdowns just have one consequence that we must never, ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer."

Importantly, Nabarro made his comments immediately after endorsing concerns, raised by Oxford University epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta, about the economic disruptions caused by lockdowns. Gupta is co-author—with Harvard University epidemiologist Martin Kulldorffm, Stanford University epidemiologist Jay Bhattacharya, and 32 others—of the Great Barrington Declaration. The declaration advocates refocusing protection efforts on high-risk individuals, while encouraging others to get back to their lives.

"Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health," the declaration argues. "Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed."

The authors and co-signers of the declaration suggest a more-focused approach. "Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19," they argue. "Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold."

The declaration and its authors have come under intense fire from some who disagree with its policy proposals on scientific grounds.

"This is wishful thinking. It is not possible to fully identify vulnerable individuals, and it is not possible to fully isolate them," argues Rupert Beale of the Francis Crick Institute. "Furthermore, we know that immunity to coronaviruses wanes over time, and re-infection is possible—so lasting protection of vulnerable individuals by establishing 'herd immunity' is very unlikely to be achieved in the absence of a vaccine."

But the declaration also faces ad hominem attacks from people who object to its sponsorship by the market-oriented American Institute for Economic Research (AIER).

"I'm in my mid-50s. I have HIV. I saw my friends die in droves in the 80s, 90s. I have no more fucks left to give," tweeted Yale School of Public Health epidemiologist Gregg Gonsalves in response to the declaration. "Except those peddling pseudoscience, bankrolled by right-wing, libertarian assholes can kiss my queer ass. I know your kind. We beat you once. Will will again."

As criticism goes, that's a tad over the top. But at least it recognizes that there's a debate to be had. And, as Nabarro's comments indicate, the signers of the Great Barrington aren't alone in their concerns.

Sixty-six high-profile British physicians made headlines earlier this month when they urged the government "to consider non-Covid harms and deaths with equal standing as the reported deaths from Covid" and said that lockdown-related "harms to long term health and wellbeing begin to outweigh the benefits."

"Closedown, lockdown, closing borders—nothing has a historical scientific basis, in my view," observed Agners Tegnell, one of the architects of Sweden's less-restrictive pandemic response.

Back in March, David L. Katz, former director of Yale University's Yale-Griffin Prevention Research Center, wrote: "I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life—schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned—will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself."

But these objections have largely been ignored as the views of a few fringe heretics to the supposedly science-dictated dogma of restrictive policies that close whole societies.

Such sidelining gets harder as more high-profile scientists join together to muscle their way into the public view.

As if to emphasize the end of a monolithic public-health stance on COVID-19 response, this week the WHO joined with other international organizations to warn that "border closures, trade restrictions and confinement measures have been preventing farmers from accessing markets, including for buying inputs and selling their produce, and agricultural workers from harvesting crops, thus disrupting domestic and international food supply chains and reducing access to healthy, safe and diverse diets."

The statement also calls for "universal health coverage and income support," making it a difficult target for accusations that it was crafted by "right-wing, libertarian assholes."

The pretense that "science" automatically dictates the suspension of normal life without regard for other concerns including liberty, prosperity, and psychological health is over. At long last, months into the pandemic, the debates over the proper response to COVID-19 have begun.

NEXT: The Hispanic Tradition of Liberty

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  1. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1316405756967751685

    Overdoses appear to be up hugely nationally – 20-40 percent is a reasonable guess based on the states and cities that have reported. But although we obsessively count #Covid deaths, we don’t bother to count overdoses for months, so we really have no idea.

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  2. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1316364741888094208

    1/ It is now clear
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    and everyone else should stop trying to predict #Covid deaths, and news organizations shouldn’t report the forecasts. They have proven both wrong and irrelevant. We know #SARSCoV2 is not dangerous to most people and that its only real systemic risk…
    8:06 AM · Oct 14, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
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    Replying to
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    2/ Is that because it is highly contagious, occasional surges can strain hospital capacity in the short run. That is the ONLY metric policymakers should be considering right now, and it cannot be forecasted more than four to six weeks out at most.
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    FORECAST! (Forecasted sneaks in but it is not really proper.)

    Of course, the real reason
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  3. An epidemiologist compared covid-19 to HIV?

    And then made it a political issue?

    Shocking.

    1. And, through the lens of his own personal grievance, at that. Zounds.

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  4. So are we still supposed to LISTEN TO THE SCIENTISTS!, or are we moving on to WE CAN’T TRUST TRUMP’S SCIENTISTS!?

    1. WHO scientists are politicians first, judging from how many things they bloviate upon and how often their bloviations change depending on the political winds. I don’t trust them regardless of which way the wind is blowing.

      1. I thought that was the consensus here after Trump started feuding with them.

        Lockdowns may have been the best option initially, when no one knew the full risks and thought they had a chance to contain and beat the virus, but now that it is out of the bag probably for good, what’s the point?

        Hygiene, social distancing, and masks seem to be the most rational and lowest cost path forward. Once infection rates are lessened, other countries might even start letting Americans back in to conduct business and make money. Right now we are losing out big time to Chinese firms who are able to travel freely while American firms are stuck sitting on their hands at home.

        1. This pandemic was a panicked-up fraud from the start. The very first word I heard was supposedly three weeks after the locals knew about it; but anyone who would trust government news releases in the first place is gullible beyond belief, and to trust CCP press releases is just whacko.

          Then there was that cruise ship, Princess Diamond I think. Mostly old folks, all cooped up before enough was known about it, and a remarkably low infection rate and even lower death rate.

          It was obvious back then that this was no more worth worrying about than the previous few panics.

          1. This. I knew lockdowns were a mistake before they even went into effect. All the evidence was readily available. And if you look at a plot of NY’s deaths by day, and plot the lockdown going into effect and mask mandate on it, you’ll see neither did a damn thing to even slow the virus down.

            Nor is there a shred of scientific experimental evidence that masks prevent the spread of Covid-19, and tons of evidence that mask wearing is useless to counterproductive; plus evidence that mask wearing causes dyspnea after times as short as just 6 minutes.

            Anyone who thinks lockdowns were scientifically-informed policy is an idiot, including the few scientists who publicly signed on.

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        2. There was never any chance to keep it in the bag.

  5. https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1316381998345146369

    Scott Atlas: Prolonged lockdowns a complete disaster:

    * Working class & low income people destroyed
    * 46% of cancers not diagnosed
    * 50% chemo appts missed
    * 50% missed immunizations
    * 200K missed cases of abuse
    * 25% of young people considering suicide

    1. Oh him.

      If you want an informed opinion from Dr Atlas ask him what is the optimal set of pulse sequences to evaluate for recurrent Glioblastoma Multiforme.

      Otherwise he is out of his area.

      1. You are out of your area. I can find every conclusion by scientists in every area. Listen, study and decide who is closer to being correct. Not you.

      2. A decent system engineer would come to the same conclusions that Atlas has. When one looks at the data, what other conclusion can one come to? No good correlation between protocols and outcomes, massive economic harm, serious secondary public health issues, skewed aged demographics of those getting sick and dying, seasonality/regional behavior of respiratory viruses, etc. all suggest that lockdowns were worse than useless.

        Also the moving of the goalposts, from flatten the curve to mUSt Not hAVe ANyMoRe inFecTIOns!11!!

      3. “Otherwise he is out of his area.”

        Those facts? Gee, just arm-wave them away.

  6. “right-wing, libertarian assholes”

    Conflating right-wing and libertarian is the first sign you don’t know what you’re talking about.

    1. Given:
      Their overall policy guidelines of focusing on protecting the vulnerable while letting everyone else go about their own business
      And:
      The description of such as sounding like it came from Right wing / Libertarian assholes

      Can we surmise that someone from the WHO has recently spent a lot of time reading through the past 7-8 months of comments to Reason’s CoVID articles? Because some of that sounds awful familiar . . .

      1. Yes but everyone who isn’t a prog has been saying that since March. It’s the most obvious, common sense thing to do. Why it’s taken this long for a single agency to state this is testament to something much more nefarious going on – which consequently means trump is either an idiot or is involved himself.

        1. Come right out and say it. “roob nation” and “tard nation” and “ordinary people nation” figured it all out months ago, while Progressive-Nation-in-Charge still clings to everything they DON’T know — flaunting their stupidity — and imposes their ignorant and often malicious and vindictive solutions on the populace by way of unilateral edicts.

          Now some of the controllers are figuring out that, even in their sheltered positions of influence and authority, the lockdowns will eventually affect even them in a negative way.

    2. Many people make that mistake. Including some who consider themselves libertarian.

  7. According to the Chron, this discussion is not happening and Trump is terrible for suggesting we ignore the lock-downs.

  8. Nice move calling your own declaration “Great”.

      1. Shhh, the narrative and the agenda must not be questioned.

    1. Are you a blonde by any chance?

  9. So Facebook Google and Twitter are now going to ban the who

    1. It was that “Won’t Get Fooled Again” song that did it.

      1. Squeeze Box.

        #Metoo.

        1. You mean it wasn’t about an accordion?

      2. I would think pinball wizard for violating the ADA

      3. Can you see the real me, doctor, doctor?

  10. Trusting ‘experts’ means trusting whatever person the powers that be decide to drag out to give ‘expert’ advice.

    Anyone remember an accurate prediction from an ‘expert’ of how many nursing home deaths we’d have, or small businesses closed, or other medical care postponed, or hospitals going out of business, etc?

  11. Rupert Beale of the Francis Crick Institute….
    But the declaration also faces ad hominem attacks from people who object to its sponsorship by the market-oriented American Institute for Economic Research (AIER).

    I’ll take the libertarian institute over the institute named after known “racist” Francis Crick. Sorry, been told that any hint of racism taints science.

    1. I think that was Watson, not Crick.

      1. Same Nobel prize, same racist taint.

        1. Do we have to play 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon with all information to see if its secretly racist?

  12. Not to discredity the WHO scientists, but it should be kept in mind that start-to-finish, soup-to-nuts this whole thing has been instigated an propagated, if not at the behest of scientists, then at least with hand-in-hand with scientists.

    This wasn’t some Jenny McCarthy-esque phenomenon where some emoting political hairbrain pulled some niche research publication out of the corners of the medical literature and used the social clout to whip up a media frenzy. This was unequivocally the result of politicians, the media, and scientists all sitting around the same table and nodding agreeingly at each other.

    People like Neil Ferguson have unequivocably and irreperably damaged more lives than Jenny McCarthy or any similar anti-vaxxer ever could.

    1. Didn’t Jenny mcCarthy get Andrew Wakefield’s study from the Lancet? Isn’t that the same publication that’s been fueling the mask insanity?

    2. No. Facebook and Twitter did the most harm by preventing debate and hiding opinions that didn’t meet with their goals, which are summed up simply as “the opposite of Trump.”

      The largest networking sites in the world actively censored anything that opposed the Democrat-promoted anti-science narrative. They’re really the mouthpieces for the most harmful policies.

  13. “But these objections have largely been ignored as the views of a few fringe heretics to the supposedly science-dictated dogma of restrictive policies that close whole societies.”

    The power consolidate pursuant to God’s mandate was not voluntarily surrendered by the kings of old, either.

  14. A bing search is still heavily loaded with critiques regarding ‘dark funding’, ‘covid-deniers’, etc.
    As should be no surprise, countering the power-grab is going to take a lot of work.
    About the only active group seems to be
    Pacific Legal Foundation:
    “Rebuilding America requires freedom”
    https://pacificlegal.org/
    Pretty sure my donations this year are going to reflect some changes; IJ just doesn’t seem interested.

    1. Countering the power-grab is going to be impossible. See: 9/11

  15. oooh Yale v. Yale there aren’t enough seat edges for everybody

  16. Well, actual science about a virus has not changed at all.
    Just the political opportunism.
    Stay away from others if YOU are sick.
    Wash your hands.
    Protect the elderly.
    Do not destroy the economy.
    See, simple and unchanging if they had just treated this virus like all the others.

    1. Avoid large crowds.

      1. Have you considered all of the things we need to give up in life to follow your advice? A non-exhaustive list:

        1) Weddings
        2) Funerals
        3) Any other large party (e.g. anniversaries, birthdays, etc.
        4) Concerts
        5) Live sports
        6) Most other large performances (comedy, music, theater, the cinema, etc.)

        No thanks. I’ll take a pass on your suggestion.

        1. Roaming aimlessly in herds at the mall.
          Swimming where you piss at the pool.
          Getting in drunken brawls at the bar.
          Passing around STDs at the club.

          I don’t mean avoid crowds at all costs a top down policy, I mean as discretionary personal precaution; avoid unnecessary or aimless crowding. Large crowds of (strange) people are destructive, irrational, prone to violence, and… infectious. Go to weddings. Go to funerals. Go to the library or the gym. I wouldn’t say those are large crowds anyway. My point is; when was the last time a mostly peaceful wedding burned down a police station? Why risk catching/spreading even plain old influenza to watch a bunch of communist sympathizers sell out their occupation and our shared cultural heritage? Hell, why risk the terrible food and beer *and* the crowd at your local propaganda stadium when you could go to the local bar/restaurant instead.

    2. Get it through your thick skull you will eventually be exposed no matter what you do.

  17. Sweden’s daily Covid death rate has remained <0.33 per million since August 1, <0.20 since September 1, and is now 0.06 (i.e. 0.6 death per day in Sweden).

    In contrast, the US daily Covid death rate has ranged from 1.80 – 3.49 per million since May 26, and is now 2.15 (i.e 710 deaths per day in the US).
    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=USA~SWE&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=aged_70_older&pickerSort=desc

    But after denouncing and condemning Sweden's scientifically sound decision to not shut down businesses or industries, and to reopen schools in the spring, the news media and other lockdown advocates haven't acknowledged Sweden's apparent stunning success.

    1. A CDC study published on Sept 11 found 71% of Covid patients reported ALWAYS wearing a mask in public during the 14 preceding days, and 14% reported doing so OFTEN, indicating mask mandates and mask wearing hasn’t provided as much protection from Covid as has been claimed by those who mandated and advocated masks.
      https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm?s_cid=mm6936a5_w

      Importantly, the study also found:
      “Close contact with one or more persons with known COVID-19 was reported by 42% of case-patients compared with 14% of control-participants (p<0.01), and most (51%) close contacts were family members."

      In sum, although the vast majority of Covid patients wore masks whenever they were in public, many/most of them contracted the virus at their home (where they likely didn't wear a mask) from an already infected family member or (in some cases) friend.

      Some patients also reported close contact with an infected coworker during the two preceding weeks.

      1. Also, Sweden doesn’t mandate masks in public places.

      2. In sum, although the vast majority of Covid patients wore masks whenever they were in public, many/most of them contracted the virus at their home (where they likely didn’t wear a mask) from an already infected family member or (in some cases) friend.

        Not. Mandating. Hard. Enough.

        /sarc

      3. FakeBook says this has no context and must be silenced

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  19. Gonsalves is ‘recognizing that there’s a debate to be had?’ That appears to be ahistorical, antiscientific, involves conflating two political groups and an ad hominem attack. ‘Dying in droves’ and ‘kiss my queer ass’ tied to ‘we beat you once, will again’ is no more than irrational emoting and in-group bias. His entire rant seems little more than a temper tantrum on social media, not a rational argument or statement disagreeing with policies.

  20. So the WHO wants to kill Grandma now

  21. Of course we’re finally getting a real debate now, the election is 20 days away.

    This bullshit is 100% political, and if Sleepy Hoe actually does manage to win, the zeal for lockdowns is going to suddenly and magically disappear into thin air among most democrats the day after the election the same exact way that the fake “anti-war” movement disappeared the instant Block Insane Yomomma became president.

    To the extent that the average Joe knows about it at all (which is. it much), there is no real broad popular support for Agenda 21 style totalitarianism amongst the general public. It’s only popular at the very top of the power pyramid, among the “elites” who have been game-planning it out at Davis and their other secret meetings for the last thirty years.

  22. I wonder if Fauci is going to pick up the mic he dropped.

    1. Trump has largely replaces Fauci and Birx with Scott Atlas, who has been spot on since the virus outbreak in March.

      1. Yes if I have a question about infectious disease and epidemiology first guy I go to is an authority in the field of MRI of the central nervous system. See he looks at brains all day so he has a lot of insight.

        Spot on seems to mean agrees with what Trump said.

        1. “Spot on seems to mean agrees with what Trump said.”

          Actually, spot on meant Atlas was saying/writing what I’ve been been saying/writing, and what has been proven correct.

          1. He agrees with what you said. He was selected as medical advisor because he agrees with what Trump said.

            My barber is always right also. He never makes the wrong call because he listens first and talks later. That is a good quality.

            I read Scot Altas’ classic text on neuro MRI. Well most of it.

            Actually not much in medicine is proven correct. Nothing really because you are dealing with Mother Nature and human behavior both of which are unpredictable.

            1. “He agrees with what you said. He was selected as medical advisor because he agrees with what Trump said.”
              Got a cite for that claim, mind-reader?

            2. Actually not much in medicine is proven correct. Nothing really because you are dealing with Mother Nature and human behavior both of which are unpredictable.

              So then Fauci et al. are unsubstantiated propagandist quacks and snake oil politicians masquerading as scientific experts.

              Am I supposed to believe that you read most of Atlas’ text in an academic or professional capacity? That you’ve supposedly developed your critical thinking skills somewhere beyond a secondary educational capacity? Because you seem to have arrested it at a post-modern/moral relative capacity that even my own and most other teenagers outgrow.

              1. It is not important to me what you believe mad.casual. Yes I did.

                Magnetic resonance imaging of the brain and spine was groundbreaking text when it was published and still is the best foundation for neuroimaging.

                When politics and medicine become the same both are worthless. They are different ways of looking at the world.

                1. Then, presumably (at least by your benchmark) Fauci is not the one we should be listening to either? Hasn’t observed patients with the virus in real-time and isn’t exactly suited to speak regarding the OH SO relied upon modeling. He’s not a statistician.

                  Several of the 1500 Doctors who signed the declaration are seeing patients with Covid daily are speaking out and aligning themselves with other specialists because they see a problem here.

                  We could do this all day…

        2. “Yes if I have a question about infectious disease and epidemiology first guy I go to is an authority in the field of MRI of the central nervous system. See he looks at brains all day so he has a lot of insight…”

          Which is what should have been applied to the issue from day one, rather than dealing with it as a narrow health issue.
          Besides which, you are full of shit:
          “…Gupta is co-author—with Harvard University epidemiologist Martin Kulldorffm, Stanford University epidemiologist Jay Bhattacharya, and 32 others—…”

        3. You’re right. It’s much better to listen to someone like Fauci, who’s every epidemiological prediction throughout the entirety of his career has been off by at least one order of magnitude.

          1. Consistently on the high side, for clarification.

  23. You do get, don’t you, that we’re heading into danderoys territory in October. Most states already with rising cases.

    Last time I mentioned that in March one of our local hospitals had 150 beds, 140 of which were Covid patients. Most here said it was a NY thing no problem elsewhere (except of course Florida, Texas, and Arizona).

    This past week, in North Dakota:

    “Hospital capacity is a concern around North Dakota. There were 253 available staffed inpatient beds plus 29 intensive care unit beds in North Dakota on Monday, according to state data. There were three available staffed beds plus one ICU bed in Bismarck, all at Sanford Health. CHI St. Alexius Health had none. “

    https://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/health/active-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-continue-steady-rise-in-north-dakota/article_125f2b1b-849b-5a1a-b78d-e7b2c886375e.html

    But you got your test case in Florida for that herd immunity thing you and our brilliant President Trump want…Florida. Let’s see how that works out. I’ll remind you.

    1. You do get, don’t you, that we’re heading into danderoys territory in October. Most states already with rising cases.

      Can you describe, in detail, a case?

      1. Bismarck Tribune – Oct. 12, 2020:
        Hospital capacity is a concern around North Dakota. There were 253 available staffed inpatient beds plus 29 intensive care unit beds in North Dakota on Monday, according to state data. There were three available staffed beds plus one ICU bed in Bismarck, all at Sanford Health. CHI St. Alexius Health had none.

        1. Damnit, the above wasn’t meant in reply to you D.R.(P.).

      2. Depends on what the definition of “is” is, eh?

        1. No, you lefty shit, it depends on your ability to understand English, so we got a real problem here.
          Fuck off and die, after you tell us about your magic chant.

    2. Bismarck Tribune – Oct. 9, 2020:
      Hospital capacity is a concern around the state and in Bismarck. There were 186 available staffed inpatient beds plus 16 intensive care unit beds in North Dakota on Friday, according to state data. There were just four available staffed beds and one ICU bed in Bismarck, all at Sanford Health; CHI St. Alexius Health had none available.

      So, according to your own source, the total number of available, staffed beds, increased by 67 in 3 days. During a pandemic that is threatening to overwhelm them.

      What dumbasses.

      1. Good God. You’re an idiot. Really.

        Best,
        Jack

        1. Good God. You’re an idiot. Really.

          And yet your math still fails to convince.

        2. Good god, you’re a steaming pile of lefty shit.
          Worst,
          Sevo

      2. So, according to your own source, the total number of available, staffed beds, increased by 67 in 3 days.

        My bad. 67 leaves out the additional 13 ICU beds that they presumably found hiding under all the COVID-riddled corpses.

        At this rate, they’ll have enough staffed hospital beds to keep every body that died of COVID under observation, just in case.

        1. Let’s keep this going. Oklahoma

          “The city of Oklahoma City emergency management office reported 98 metro-area ICU hospitalizations as of Sunday, up from 55 on Sept. 10. Overall hospitalizations hit 267, a nearly 50% increase in a month, the office reported.

          “We are definitely feeling a crunch and all of our facilities are well above capacity, they’re functioning at an average of about 110% to 120% capacity,” Yazdanipour said. pressure was exerted by patient transfers in from rural areas where people wearing masks “are laughed at.”

          The state Health Department reported 1,309 new infections Tuesday. The 760 statewide hospitalizations reported Monday were a record.

          In Oklahoma City, the number of COVID-19 ICU patients had nearly doubled in the past 30 days.“

          https://oklahoman.com/article/5673827/as-mask-ordinance-is-extended-covid-19-surges-and-okc-has-no-icu-beds-available

          1. Let’s keep this going.

            So you’re going to find another location and say they’re running short of beds while the number of available beds is increasing?

            1. Well MC what happens in hospitals is when the number of ICU beds starts getting tight they start moving patients to step down or other units faster. It makes the charge nurse nervous if there is not some buffer there.

              It is not unusual to run short on beds but they try and prevent that. Also remember that a single ICU patient takes up the efforts of a lot more skilled people compared to a basic medical unit.

              1. Well MC what happens in hospitals is when the number of ICU beds starts getting tight they start moving patients to step down or other units faster. It makes the charge nurse nervous if there is not some buffer there.

                You say this like I’ve never worked in healthcare or my wife hasn’t worked in healthcare for over 20 yrs. or I’m some rube who hasn’t been able use the internet in the last 6 mos.

                Even if all of the above is true, it doesn’t jive the notion that “We’re/They’re running out of beds.” with “The number of available beds (standard *and* ICU) increased at a rate exceeding hospitalizations.”

                1. Let’s keep on keepin on in NY. Oops. Mississippi

                  “Six major hospitals in Mississippi have zero intensive care beds available because of coronavirus patients, and health officials warn the state could be facing a second wave of the virus.

                  The number of Mississippians testing positive for the coronavirus is up, and so is the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations. State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said he is concerned about the state’s healthcare system being strained once more. “I do have a network of people who do just kind of keep me informed of what they’re seeing in the ERs and Hospitals, and they all over the weekend were telling me ‘hey, it’s starting to creep up. We’re getting busy, we don’t have space, we’re seeing more patients show up in the ER with COVID-19 like symptoms.’ So, I do think we’re on the front end of something that could be bad,” said Dobbs.“

                  https://www.mpbonline.org/blogs/news/health-officials-concerned-about-potential-second-wave-of-coronavirus/

                  Doesn’t sound good in NY. Oops. Mississippi

                  1. Hmm. Wonder what they did when the cases were double what they are now.
                    Were they dying in the streets, jackass?

                    1. That info is from the embedded chart; high was 9,666, now 4,444; SPIKING!

                2. Let’s do North Dakota again since you have reading comprehension skills:

                  “The state is battling through a shortage of available hospital beds as COVID-19 hospitalizations converge with strains on health care staffing and high noncoronavirus admissions. There are 32 available intensive care beds and 241 regular, inpatient beds in the whole state.

                  The situation is especially urgent in Bismarck, where the two hospitals have one available ICU bed and two inpatient beds between them. Fargo’s three hospitals have 20 open ICU beds and 24 inpatient beds, while Grand Forks’ Altru hospital has four ICU beds and 22 inpatient beds.”

                  https://www.jamestownsun.com/newsmd/coronavirus/6716866-Burgum-says-16-counites-at-high-risk-for-COVID-19-as-deaths-mount-in-North-Dakota

                  1. “Cass County, which includes Fargo, reported a whopping 216 new cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday.”
                    Those straws are out there, jackass; keep grasping.

                  2. Let’s do North Dakota again since you have reading comprehension skills

                    Again? You didn’t even get it right the first time. Despite my terrible reading skills, you still have yet to show work on 282 < 209 math you overlooked above.

                    Seriously, the 6-yr.-old who sits in a Zoom class next to me every day of the week is more on top of this than you are.

                3. Let’s do that huge metropolitan state, Kansas.

                  “With area medical facilities reaching their capacity for coronavirus patients, Ascension Via Christi Hospital announced this week it is halting elective and non-emergent procedures and the Crawford County Commission called a special meeting to discuss additional measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.
                  Stebbins said Tuesday, though, that the local problem was “further exacerbated by the fact that the regional players that we would typically utilize for ICU capability, including Mercy and Freeman in Joplin, are also full and are unable to take our critical care cases. And so then we have to try to go to other places, including KU and the hospitals in Kansas City and/or Springfield. They are also full, and that makes for a significant challenge. But now we are filling up, they are filling up, and there’s going to be no place to go,” Stebbins said. “And if this continues in its current trajectory, all of those systems will be overwhelmed.”

                  https://www.morningsun.net/news/20201013/county-health-officials-consider-policy-changes-as-area-hospitals-reach-capacity

                  1. Pretty much devoid of any meaningful numbers, but if you search for ‘hospitals in Pittsburg KS’ (rather than cherry picking for scare stories as jackass has done here), you’ll find a grand total of (1) – that’s one.
                    Gee, maybe, choosing to live in a small town, you might have to travel to get something you want! Why, all of ~50 freeway miles away is Springfield IL, and none of it’s 5 hospitals are flying red flags.
                    Took you more than three hours of searching to find three cherry-picked anecdotes to ‘back’ your bullshit, jackass?
                    Lame, even for you.
                    Fuck off and die.

                    1. Dammit:
                      it’s =/= its

                  2. As of Tuesday, there were 21 COVID-19-positive patients at Ascension Via Christi, Stebbins said.

                    Stebbins said he agreed that a change should be made, but the health department wanted to be sure it could be confident that any policy change it recommended would be effective in mitigating the spread of the virus.

                    Stebbins and Bean noted, for example, that they had not recommended changes at K-12 schools in the county, despite some COVID-19 cases being identified among students, because switching to a remote or hybrid learning model could have negative consequences due to children’s grandparents being the only option for taking care of them at home.

                    “So how much time do you think we have to kind of sit on this and wait for more input?” Johnson asked the health officers.

                    Stebbins and Bean said by Friday they should have a better answer for what next steps should be taken.

                    “I think three more days of looking at this to make sure that we’re right is more appropriate than knee-jerk reaction and limiting the community inappropriately,” Stebbins said.

                    Did you only read the part that confirmed your sensationalist notions or did you read the whole thing and only post the parts that support your assertions here? Are you advocating for action that Stebbins isn’t advocating for?

                    1. Here’s the operative words he said that I QUOTED

                      “And if this continues in its current trajectory, all of those systems will be overwhelmed.”

                      So. Genius. I guess your fine that a miracle will happen and the current pace will stop. We’re in October. Not March. He’s warning you. Everyone. We’re OK now. We won’t be soon.

                      Frogs in that slowly boiling water…meet MC. He’s a smart frog.

                    2. You’ve yet to address your obvious cherry picking, jackass.

                4. E offers condescension in spades but nothing in his/her post to suggest other than typical response to temporary demand.

                5. MC

                  It means that there are different challenges in different regions. You may be in a small rural hospital 200 miles away from the nearest referral hospital. Numbers and rates do not mean much there.

                  I really do not have a conflict with you MC. Trying to add to the discussion. Cannot say too much here but my experience is medical care focusing on critical and emergency medicine. It has been a good run. A privilege to have been a part of it.

                  Should not say this either but since I appreciate your reply. I am working on decreasing my focus on that now after more than 20 years. It wears you out and I still have some gas left in the tank.

                  1. “I really do not have a conflict with you MC. Trying to add to the discussion. Cannot say too much here but my experience is medical care focusing on critical and emergency medicine. It has been a good run. A privilege to have been a part of it.”

                    Can you say “passive-aggressive”
                    I’m guessing we have MEDICAL DOCTOR! here, much as we, in all our lives had a PROFESSOR!
                    Of course it was not your intention to demean MC’s experience and intelligence, it just looked that way to anyone who saw it!
                    And now, in your munificence, you are bestowing your approval!
                    Stuff it up your ass.

                  2. Echospinner?
                    It has become obvious that your self-worth is a result of getting your MD rather than any accomplishments.
                    Stuff it up your ass. I do not care about your concerns, nor your presumed ‘importance’; you are an authoritarian piece of shit.
                    Fuck off and die.

                6. “You say this like I’ve never worked in healthcare or my wife hasn’t worked in healthcare for over 20 yrs. or I’m some rube who hasn’t been able use the internet in the last 6 mos.”

                  I deal with my primary-care MD on a first-name basis; E is more like the asshole surgeon happy to tell YOU everything, but needs that wick-pen “THIS LEG” to avoid the law suit.
                  There is no doubt that getting an MD takes a lot of effort and is due some respect, but, equally, are my and your degrees. Except to some self-important MD.
                  One of my acquaintances has doctorates in both (to avoid any chance of doxing) theoretical and applied science, not “studies”; he prefers to discuss issues rather than make ‘pronouncements’.
                  And none of the other professional help I hire demands to be addresses as Doctor.
                  Perhaps E has some personal issues regarding self-worth?

          2. It can be a big problem in places like that quickly. The small rural hospitals can’t handle cases like that so they need to be transported to the regional hospital. It can get worse when winter sets in and air transport may not always be possible.

            1. It’s also the bulk-standard ‘lie with statistics’ reporting (that’s ignoring the forthright lying about capacity going down when his/their own numbers say it’s going up).

              ND has 30 ICU beds and 6 dead COVID patients since yesterday so it’s empirically worse than NYC that had 553 dead and thousands of available hospital beds. Lockdowns, mask mandates, and social distancing must be enforced to fix his statistical malfeseance!

              1. Mad. Casual

                Having watched this, kept up on the medical published literature best I could, seen cases, known people infected, and experienced what has happened with my own family, all of which as yours I am sure has been affected by this.

                What is your conclusion because I do not have one.

                1. “What is your conclusion because I do not have one.”
                  My conclusion is that you’re a self-important MD with not a lick of ability to listen or read.
                  Is that clear?

            2. If you’re so frightened, please crawl in a hole and stay there.
              Really tired of cowardly lefty shits trying to run my life.

    3. We’re all watching Florida. Know what’s happening?

      Nothing.

      1. Something is always happening in Florida. Why just one year ago today a Florida man was arrested for having sex with a stuffed ‘Olaf’ at Target.

        1. You think changing the subject with a ‘clever’ joke makes you loo less like an authoritarian POS?

      2. Seriously. Florida’s still waaaaaaaay behind NY/NJ in deaths per capita. The dichotomoy is so stark that you can write a long-form article about it.

        https://www.wsj.com/graphics/coronavirus-at-six-months-florida-vs-new-york/

        You want flattening the curve? Florida has a very flattened curve. The state achieved the objectives laid out at the start and this moron has the gall to bitch about the result.

    4. BTW, this was all about “SCIENCE”, until “SCIENCE” said this pile of lefty shit was full of it. Now it’s about ‘fighting climate change’, right, jackass?

    5. It’s called a Casedemic where you randomly test people w/o symptoms using PCR tests with higher than required cycle counts that find dead shards of RNA. Morons like yourself scream about the number of cases but have no answer for the fact that deaths and hospitalizations are largely disassociated with “cases”. This same phenomena happened with H1N1 lotsa people died of it in 08 and they kept testing in 09 and 10 with huge case numbers but so few deaths they just quit testing. All of this epidemiology was known at the start, which is why Sweden did what they did. They followed the known science. If they had experienced a hard flu season in 18 & 19 they would have had as few deaths as Norway, Denmark, and Finland.

      1. WaPo keeps a really nice infographic tracking reported cases/deaths by geography, cumulative and in the past week. It’s really astounding to see just how uniform the cumulative deaths per pop end up being at the county level.

        It’s almost like there’s a certain, fairly consistent, % of residents who are truly at risk for serious complications and once the virus winds its way through a population it’s no longer the catastrophic threat the lockdown enthusiasts would have us believe.

        1. When it is over over (it is mostly over now) the vast majority of countries will have similar death/hospitalization rates because the virus calls the shots, especially one that is this contagious. Any differences in rates would be attributable to pre-conditions (e.g. health of the population and how bad was the flu season in 18/19) and regional differences.

  24. “Except those peddling pseudoscience, bankrolled by right-wing, libertarian assholes can kiss my queer ass. I know your kind. We beat you once. Will will again.”

    As criticism goes, that’s a tad over the top.

    But just a tad. To be sure…

    1. Oh I don’t know. It has this kind of a groove to it. You could picture James Brown in his preacher robes letting it just roll out.

      1. Can you see the queer-ass LIGHT?!?

        1. Met a guy once. Maybe it was in a bar in Cincinnati.

          A drummer. He said he was hired on to play a show with James Brown. Said it was the toughest gig he ever played. If you were off by 1/32 on a single beat he could hear it.

          1. And I’m sure you presume that to lend anything to your bullshit up-thread.

  25. “Furthermore, we know that immunity to coronaviruses wanes over time, and re-infection is possible—so lasting protection of vulnerable individuals by establishing ‘herd immunity’ is very unlikely to be achieved in the absence of a vaccine.”

    But then it’d be even less likely to be achieved by a vaccine. Unless it was a very good vaccine and you got boosters about quarterly. For the rest of your life. I’m estimating quarterly because the reinfections were said to have occurred about that far apart. But it might turn out to be needed more frequently than that.

    1. Yeah, I’m not sure why this supposed ‘expert’ thinks a vaccine can magically do something natural infection cannot.

    2. The ‘re-infection’ rhetoric is bullshit. I’ve said this elsewhere. Multiple millions of cases with literally everyone under the sun watching for cases and symptoms like a hawk and there are something like 5 cases of re-infection and they all have recurrence within ~1 mo. of initial infection. It’s noise. If re-infection were possible, we’d have at least tens if not hundreds of thousands of re-infection running the gamut from weeks to several months. These 5 or so cases represent testing failures (especially in the face of frequent/massive testing protocols), incomplete recvories, fully immune carriers/viral shedding, sample cross-reactivity, etc.

      The fact that we have millions of recovered patients and not even hundreds of recurrences well aft 6 mo. and relatively no one is saying ‘Yeah, we might have lasting immunity.’ is itself a failure of the medical community. Especially in light of the fact that there is a considerable amount of cross-reactivity in historical samples that were exposed to something COVID-like who knows how long ago.

      The re-infection hypothesis propaganda is needed to reinforce the case numbers reporting and the insistence that lockdowns until vaccinations *for everyone* are required. Otherwise, once a couple hundred or even tens of millions people test positive, we’re done and the lockdowns become just as likely to be locking healthy and not-even-possibly infected people in their homes.

      1. Thanks Mad. Casz,

        You’re making like worth living.

        Even for a nano sec.

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  27. The writer of this article needs to get out more;
    The WHO is backpedaling because Germany is investigating the Lockdown/COVID19 as the greatest fraud in the history of mankind. Following the Napoleonic code of investigation they already have the evidence they are just moving in on the WHO for the kill.
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/10/top-german-trial-attorney-dr-reiner-fuellmich-responsible-corona-scandal-lockdowns-must-criminally-prosecuted-video/

  28. Look for public officials to double down in the coming months.

    I have no idea if this ‘reset’ is true, but politicians are acting like it is.

    As far as I’m concerned lockdowns are crimes against humanity.

    Every single politician that still peddles this pseudo-science are criminals.

    1. Waited all day to see what Rufus would write. Not disappointed.

  29. So we have jackass and echospinner, absent any evidence at all telling us that we should all crawl back in our holes!
    Jackass and echospinner must do better to support the claim and given that echospinner seems to be a fucking self-important MD of which most of us are acquainted and jackass is simply a lefty shit, both can be ignored.
    Thank you.

  30. In looking back up-thread, it seems that Echospinner has a hard time responding to the obvious claims that Echospinner is bullshitting.
    Perhaps Echospinner is full of shit and not happy to be called on it?
    Hey Echospinner! Are your having a hard time admitting you’re full of shit?

  31. A big news, I hope this joint venture is going to help in finding the root cause of the covid-19.

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  34. It is still a top down response. I am 75 and I would prefer to decide for myself how much risk of contagion I am willing to accept. I stand with those nursing home residents in Colorado who have been demonstrating against no-visiting rules that exist in all residences for the elderly. They say that they would rather die of Covid than die of loneliness.

    1. No visiting rules are beyond reasonable. It is outright cruelty.

  35. If only somebody had said that individual immunity was all that mattered and that herd immunity is an abstract, immeasurable/non-empirical, and potentially unattainable definitionless state, not a goal or useful method like a political football…

    New study says herd immunity is a myth and countries relying on it, including Sweden, chose the wrong strategy

    That said;

    Belgium tops the list, with just 6.2 percent of its population exposed to Covid-19 so far, and Sweden – with no enforced lockdown measures – is even lower down the list at just 2.5 percent.

    *referee blows whistle with hands steepled overhead*

    2 points for Sweden and control of the ball.

    1. “Belgium tops the list, with just 6.2 percent of its population exposed to Covid-19 so far, and Sweden – with no enforced lockdown measures – is even lower down the list at just 2.5 percent.”

      Jackass tells us that Sweden has some ‘regulations’ which we wouldn’t tolerate, but it seems he can’t get around to providing any evidence, sort of like his inability to tell us how ‘fighting climate change’ will make those wild fires go away.

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