Fertility rates

The U.S. Baby Bust Continues

The total fertility rate falls to its lowest level ever.

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The number of babies American women are having continues to fall, according to the latest report from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). "The general fertility rate was 58.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, down 2 percent from 2018 to reach another record low for the United States," according to provisional NCHS birth data for 2019. "The total fertility rate (TFR) was 1,705.0 births per 1,000 women [1.705 births per woman] in 2019, down 1 percent from 2018 to reach another record low for the nation."

The total number of births for the United States in 2019 was 3,745,540, down 1 percent from 3,791,712 in 2018. The report notes that this is the fifth year that the number of births has declined after an increase in 2014, and the lowest number of births since 1986.

Last year, the NCHS reported that U.S. TFR had fallen to 1.73 births per woman which beat out the previous U.S. fertility nadir of 1.74 births per woman back in 1976. This number of births per woman remains below replacement, that is, the level at which a given generation can exactly replace itself (2.1 births per woman). The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007.

In addition, the NCHS reports that births to teenage females between the ages of 15 and 19 also reached a record low of 16.6 births per 1,000 women. At the height of the baby boom in the 1950s, births to teen mothers peaked at 96.3 per 1,000 women and then began falling. In the early 1990s, teen births surged briefly to 61.8 per 1,000 women, but have since plummeted to around one-quarter of that number.

The U.S. TFR is now similar to that of many other countries, including those that make up the European Union (1.543), Australia (1.74), New Zealand (1.71), Japan (1.42), South Korea (0.977), Brazil (1.73), and China (1.69). This mirrors the decadeslong global trend of women choosing to bear ever fewer children over the course of their lifetimes. Global total fertility stood at more than five children per woman in 1964 and is well on its way toward below replacement levels, having now dropped to 2.415 children per woman as of 2018.

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  1. Open borders is a perfect solution.

    1. The only legitimate borders are those owned by private entities.

      1. like the inside of my Mustang?

      2. Well, Israel is allowed to have a border. If you disagree with that you’re anti-Semitic.

        #LibertariansForTheJewishState

        1. And pre-1947 Palestine should also have been allowed to have a border. Or is it Open Borders for me, but not for thee?

          1. Pre-1947 Palestine did have a border controlled by the United Kingdom.

      3. I agree. Private borders are legit. So why is Trump using eminent domain to confiscate my private border to build a wall to keep my neighbor out?

    2. “Open” immigration and trade policy are why the birthrates are so low.

      Higher housing costs, lower wages, and less job security means less family formation.

      1. Also, killing unborn babies is just an elective medical procedure, like having a wart removed.

        1. Well it IS essentially a parasite.

          What’s that? A human being you say? Doesn’t look human to me. Looks like a specimen.

  2. how can you bring a baby into a world with no grandparents?

    1. Lol
      Good one!

    2. Use a carousel?

  3. Good thing all of our social welfare programs are built on ponzi schemes!

    1. +100

  4. Yet another reason to implement Charles Koch’s vision: unlimited, unrestricted immigration.

    #OpenTheBordersToIncreaseThePopulation
    #(AndGiveMrKochMoreLaborers)

  5. The number of babies American women are having continues to fall

    “Today we are announcing ‘Operation Warp Two’, which will develop an artificial womb by the end of next year.”

  6. Well, the feminists and trans have eliminated women, so where are the babies going to come from?

    Fortunately for me, there are already enough workers to keep my social security coming for the few years I have left.
    Good luck to the rest of you.

    1. Adios to a bigot then.

  7. Solution? Recruit more and more and more illegal sub-humans, and tax the SHIT out of them to serve USA deserving Americans! While they do NOT collect what they pay into Social Security taxes!

    That is the “de facto” system that we have in place today!!!

    I didn’t vote for socialism in the USA, but I have been forced to participate, so yes, I will help pay for roads, education, etc., for the kids. Please don’t forget, we tax the illegal sub-humans to make them pay to help prop up Social Security, but they never get to benefit from the taxes that they pay! (In the particular case of SS). See “The Truth About Undocumented Immigrants and Taxes” (in quotes) in your Google search window will take you straight there, hit number one… AKA http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/09/undocumented-immigrants-and-taxes/499604/
    This is a part of a long pattern of Government Almighty fuck-ups making necessary, MORE Government Almighty fuck-ups! Government Almighty mandated WAY too many licenses, before we’re allowed to earn an honest living… Put too many of us into poverty. To “help” with this poverty problem that Government Almighty created, Government Almighty gave us welfare. Welfare then attracts too many illegal sub-humans, sometimes, so to fix THAT problem, Government Almighty now wants e-verify and giant border walls and giant border armies, so I suppose Government Almighty will next fire up the military draft to fix THAT problem! (Lack of a large enough wall-and-army forces).
    Those of us who like individual freedom, would like for Government Almighty to SHRINK, for once, instead of always making itself BIGGER to fix all of the problems created by Government Almighty in the first place!

    The current system that we have makes me contribute to socialism and welfare for USA citizens at (don’t know the numbers) maybe $100 for every $1 that is sent to foreigners for foreign aid. This is collectivism forced on me, and I have no choice.
    My personal religious / ideological / philosophical beliefs are that all humans are nominally equal in their rights to freedom… Not equal results, but equal freedom. Free trade (in labor as well as goods and services) are the best routes to go. But if we are to have FORCED welfare, then I can’t see why American poor are paid $100 (or whatever) for every $1 that is forced from me for foreigners! That is collectivism forced on me that I disagree with! I am not aware of God or karma or evolution or the Universe or ANY moral authority telling me that this ratio is correct!
    And for challenging this collectivism, I am a collectivist? Please explain!

    1. Keep it up and we are going to get a court order that prohibits you from eating shit. Try us.

      1. Typical conservatard response! No logic, no facts brought to bear… Just, agree with MEEEE, or else!!! Or else I will bring the forces of Government Almighty to bear on YOU, you morally inferior one, you!!!

        Self-righteousness, and self-righteous violence (or threat thereof) knows NO end!!!

        1. Remember folks, you can’t get anyone pregnant where Sqrls likes to stick it.

          1. It should be aborted post haste

  8. Can’t get them pregnant from 6 feet away.

      1. Wow.
        What sort of psi is your wiener running at?

      2. What is in that beer, exactly, and where are we supposed to hold it?

    1. In case you hadn’t heard, the (un)official expert on the subject, Dr. Lockdown, says you aren’t doing it right.

  9. Well in a few more decades the population of Africa is going to be 40% of the planet’s population. If you think they are going to stay there you’re mistaken. There will likely be a mass migration through this century the likes of which we haven’t seen.

    Expect much cultural and social changes. As Steyn likes to say the future belongs to those who show up.

    1. It may honestly repeat the European takeover of the Americas and the decimation of the indigenous.

      1. For a lot of reasons, this seems very unlikely. There’s still lots of space that’s habitable in Africa that simply hasn’t been through the same social progress that much of the West (and East) has gone through. Even with a population explosion, it seems unlikely that Africa will intrinsically supersede the West (or East) in terms of informational/technological and resource supremacy. Maybe if you equate greater assimilation with decimation (or if you’re asserting some sort of intra-Africa decimation), you might be right.

        Otherwise, it’s been a quarter century since Nelson Mandela took office and the majority-black country that he led has managed not to violently evict or (non-)violently rob and/or evict their white bourgeios.

        1. South Africa
          Year White population
          1994 5,191,000
          2019 4,652,006

          Source: Wikipedia – White South Africans

        2. Do you know ANYTHING about politics in South Africa???

          That entire country is dominated by revenge politics and screwing over white people as much as possible, while milking them for as much as possible financially. Also, the country has fallen apart since white people stopped running it.

          Even setting aside any ideas about inherent qualities in various ethnicities, culture matters… And there are only 2 broad cultures that have been shown to be able to run a civilized nation: Europeans (largely just western Europeans (including Spain/Italy) if we want to nit pick) and East Asians.

          If we get swamped by so many fresh off the boat illiterate peasants from the 3rd world overnight, even if one believes they can eventually be assimilated, civilization will collapse. Those people and their backwards cultures will destroy the civilized world. PERIOD. Asia will be the only ones that survive because they’re not stupid enough to let these people in.

    2. “ the future belongs to those who show up f*ck like bunnies!

  10. Margaret Atwood had the right idea.

    Unless it was satire, of course. She *was* serious, wasn’t she?

    1. I was thinking about Atwood recently.
      On the surface the Handmaid’s Tale appears to be a woke circle jerk about a Protestant theocracy, but when you look deeper you see that it’s actually aimed at Islam.

      In the first place the Republic of Gilead’s doctrines are nowhere to be found in actual Charismatic, Fundamentalist or Evangelical theology, but they are present in all Islamic sects (even “liberal” offshoots like Isma’ilism or the Dervish).

      And actual historical Protestant theocracies like the Evangelical Dutch Republic (Republiek der Zeven Verenigde Provinciën) and the Puritan Commonwealth of England were nothing like Gilead at all, but Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran and Pakistan certainly are.

      So rather than being a fantasy persecution wank for rich, white feminists, perhaps it’s a stalking-horse to secretly promote anti brown-man sentiments amongst the Wine Moms and Vodka Aunts.

      1. Big, if true.

        It would be funny at how fast Atwood is non-personed if the Left comes to that conclusion.

        1. She was writing about Islam. Her book was inspired by how Islamic nations went from women in mini skirts to burkas in what seemed like a blink of the eye. Her entire story was basically what if what happened there happened here instead.

          1. Then our society would be functional again?

      2. I can’t wait to appropriate this as my own thinking next time I’m at a cocktail party and have the opportunity to weigh in on Atwood. I admittedly have few original thoughts of my own.

  11. It’s well known that the wealthier people are, the fewer children they have. Fortunately, our benevolent rulers have solved the problem for us by destroying the world’s economy and forcing everyone into the depths of fertility-enhancing poverty.

  12. I understand the explanations about how educated women are having careers rather than more children these days, but in addition to those factors, we should also look at the sad but true fact that babies are a whiny, expensive pain in the ass.

    A friend of mine brought one home about six months ago, and the lazy little bastard still hasn’t done a lick of work. Worse than that, whenever the baby isn’t happy about something, it just cries at the top of his lungs until it gets whatever it wants.

    Who wants to sign on for that kind of ingratitude? Forget about cleaning up after himself–and we haven’t even started talking about the baby’s . . . um . . . personal hygiene.

    So, let’s not blame women for getting educated and choosing to have one or two babies and a career rather three or four and no career. Someone’s gotta say it–babies have been abusing their infant privilege for a very, very long time.

    1. Babies are like puppies… They suck when they’re shitting all over the place, but they’re AWESOME once they’re older! One a kid can wipe their own ass they’re pretty fun. And you get to harass them for the rest of your life and make jokes at their expense. Like telling them that you made their balls itch a lot when they were in there. My dad likes that one.

  13. I do wonder if we’ll see something if a Baby Boomlet in the wake of this pandemic. With the haircut the older generation has taken, younger people might get a hankering to be in the family way. It probably won’t be enough to reverse the longterm trend, though.

    It’s not just education that drives does fertility; it’s also social safety net programs. In poor countries, children represent one’s retirement plan, safety and security in old age. In nations wealthy enough to fund welfare programs, babies represent nothing but a drain on finances. Maybe as countries find their social security programs going bankrupt, we’ll see a surge in fertility, if social unrest doesn’t break out first.

    I wonder if the “fertility cruises” floated by the government of Denmark will catch on in other countries.

    Oh, wait.

    1. So that’s why liquor stores are essential.

  14. When unemployment spikes during severe economic downturns, birth rates usually drop. That’s been true for the past decade, thanks to the Great Recession and its aftermath. But there’s a stark difference this time around: The economy is improving, but birth rates aren’t.

    1. The dial on this story might spin the other way in another 9 months or so

  15. The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007.

    Isn’t US population increasing?

    1. Yup. We’re replacing middle class white people with half illiterate peasants from the 3rd world who are only qualified to mow lawns and don’t pay enough in taxes to support their own expenditures… What could go wrong???

  16. Nine months from now will be telling on this trend. If it doesn’t reverse with couple suddenly being stuck indoor together and unable to go out and do the things they’d normally do for fun, then we have a real issue. Probably not a problem though, considering most people in my generation aren’t stupid enough to think that Social Security will still be around when we get old.

  17. We creating our new mini baby boom. Indefinite lockdown with gainful employment denied to most people, there’s not much left to do but screw. The affluent binge Netflix, the poor screw. Meaning we’ll be soon inundated with non-essential babies!

    There’s goes the neighborhood. Is it still legal to redline against non-essentials?

  18. It’s almost as if a large chunk of the female population has been aggressively pushing fake rape charges and a “all men are evil” campaign for the last few years (especially in colleges), at the same time that porn and fake alternatives to real sex are easier to acquire than ever. It’s not the only reason, but why be surprised that there’s a chunk of guys who’ve just written dating off as either too dangerous or not worth the effort

  19. I really don’t see any downside to the drop in the fertility rate. It will be quite a while before we really see this become a problem, if that ever happens. The earth has a very high population and we can likely decrease it significantly with little effect. We are at 4 times the population of 1900. I will start worrying when we at half the population we are at now.

  20. I can guarantee that nine months from now there will be a baby boom.
    Everyone has been locked inside for almost 2 months now. What else is there to do but screw?

  21. The truth is that a declining population is nothing but a good thing for the people alive, PROVIDED we don’t try to import people to replace the population.

    My dad dated a girl whose dad bought a house a block from the beach in the Pacific Palisades in the 60s. If you don’t know that’s basically a crazy nice neighborhood near LA akin to Malibu. He did that on a public school teachers salary.

    If we had fewer people, that leaves more resources and more “choice” places to live for the remaining population. Probably stable or declining housing prices, which is a GOOD thing, as housing is an expense, not an investment.

    But if we import people to try to maintain or increase population, no matter who we let in it will destroy our civilization, culture, and society… If we let in economically shitty ones it will ALSO destroy our economy. We’ve had immigration policy that does both for awhile now. God help us if we don’t course correct soon.

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