Coronavirus

Coronavirus Epidemic May Be Slowed by Warm and Humid Weather

The U.S. may get a respite from COVID-19 this summer.

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Will the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 recede as the weather warms up, as flu viruses often do? Maybe so, according to a preliminary study by Chinese researchers. That would be terrific news.

Basically, the researchers analyzed how the epidemic evolved in various Chinese cities taking into account the weather in each. They also compared how the virus proliferated in countries with relatively lower seasonal air temperature and lower humidity (e.g., Korea, Japan, and Iran), which experienced more severe outbreaks with its spread in warmer and more humid countries (e.g., Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand), where the outbreaks have been more limited.

In cold dry weather the basic reproduction number (R) of the new coronavirus is somewhere between 2 and 3—that is, each infected person passes along the virus to an average of 2 to 3 other people. Once they've crunched the data, the researchers find that a one degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower the R value by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively.

Let's take the average climate of a randomly chosen American city—say, Washington, D.C. In March, the average high temperature is 56 degrees Fahrenheit (13.3 degrees C), with a relative humidity of 58 percent. In August, the average high temperature is 87 degrees Fahrenheit (30.6 degrees C) and humidity averages 71 percent. Assuming optimistically an R of 2, that would yield an August R of 1.047. In this scenario, rising summer heat and humidity would cut the R in half and significantly slow down the course of the epidemic.

The beneficial effects of summer, combined with conscientiously practiced mitigation measures such as social distancing and case isolation that flatten the epidemic's curve of infections, could drive R could below 1, causing the number of new cases to decline. If the new coronavirus turns out to be seasonal, the denizens of D.C. (and most folks living in the rest of the country) will get a respite from COVID-19 this summer.

If these findings prove happily true, expect our political leaders to take full credit for the relief that warmer weather will afford us. But don't forget the House of Stark motto in The Game of Thrones: "Winter is coming." The second winter wave of the 1918 Spanish flu was far more deadly than the original outbreak.

Nevertheless, a dog days lull in the epidemic would provide a breathing spell during which our health care system could substantially beef up treatment and mitigation efforts. It might even allow researchers enough time to discover and deploy effective pharmaceutical therapies for the disease.

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  1. a dog days lull in the epidemic … might even allow researchers enough time to discover and deploy effective pharmaceutical therapies for the disease

    , and “policy makers” enough time to implement even more draconian restrictions for Round 2.

    1. , and “policy makers” enough time to come up with excuses and cover their asses before the little people realize that most of the draconian measures already implemented were unnecessary.

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  2. > Coronavirus Epidemic May Be Slowed by Warm and Humid Weather

    Wonderful, it’s cold and rainy where I am!

    1. I have a nice condo in Arizona for sale if you want to save your life…..

      1. It is supposed to hate heat and humidity. Keith Richards and Florida man may be the only ones who survive this.

      2. How’s that humidity looking for the summer?

      3. I have an even nicer 2-story house in Brazil that’s WAY farther away from Chinese bioweapons research facilities. The April 1979 anthrax outbreak in Sverdlovsk was contained by Iron Curtain open borders (shoot 2 kill) policies. This one… not so much.

    2. Provides some extra explanation on why the southern hemisphere has had such slower spreads.

      But as the seasons flip hemispheres, they should expect to be slammed.

      1. Australia is just delayed by a week or so. They now have community transmission and are at 400 cases (probably very accurate since they are still able to track contacts) growing by 25%/day.

        1. Even the flu doesn’t die out in summer, so any drop should be considered a bonus. If it’s a big one all the better! And frankly it’s realistic. Basically no known respiratory illness GOES UP in hot weather, so it’s reasonable to assume this will stay the same, or more likely go down by some degree.

        2. Of course. Even the cold and flu doesn’t disappear in summer, that’s what keeps them as seasonal illnesses. They can only reassert themselves in the winter because they never really go away. The one major difference in covid-19 is that its a new virus so there’s no herd immunity. This should allow it to spread both faster right now, and faster in off-season.

  3. It would at least give the grocery stores time to restock toilet paper.

  4. Coronavirus Epidemic May Be Slowed by Warm and Humid Weather

    Do the Australians know this?

    1. Currently Australia has 298 confirmed cases. Their first confirmed case was March 2nd. One to 298 in 15 days is a pretty slow infection rate.

      India as of today only has 114 confirmed cases, 14 of which are foreign nationals who got it somewhere else.

      We don’t know but it appears that the virus doesn’t do very well in warm weather.

      Also, it would be very 2020 if it turned out a warmer climate and early summer saved thousands of lives.

      1. Global Warming obviously saves lives.

        1. Now a warm climate is totally less conducive to life. That is why there is so much more flora and fauna in the arctic than there is in the tropics. Right?

          1. I’m no molecular biologist, but I think the jury’s still out as to whether a virus constitutes an actual living organism.

            1. “That is why there is so much more flora and fauna in the arctic than there is in the tropics. Right?”

              “…[T]he jury’s still out as to whether a virus constitutes an actual living organism.”

              A virus isn’t an entity that can survive and thrive outside of its target cell. It can be viably virulent for awhile on surfaces, depending on the bug—this thing lasts up to a week on things, depending on the surface and UV exposure—but it’s not a thing that can live by itself, like a mold or bacteria colony. Things like those do prefer warmer weather.

              Instead, a virus is better thought of as something like a chemical warfare agent. Most of those last longer in environments that are cooler (because they evaporate and then dissipate), dryer (water hydrolyzes many of them, like organophosphates. Works better when you add bleach), and shady. Russia in winter versus Persian Gulf in summer are the two extremes I’ve read as examples.

              Knowing the spread of this thing is dependent on whether governments bother testing for it. I doubt India is descending on their population with millions of test kits. Probably the best way of tracking this would be following pneumonia death rates, which nobody is doing.

              In short, I don’t think warm weather is going to save us, despite the chemical warfare analogy above. It may lower transmissibility though.

              1. Probably the best way of tracking this would be following pneumonia death rates, which nobody is doing.

                I think the best way to track this at this point (given a still obscene lack of tests and rampup) is to test everyone entering hospital. The biggest risk is treating patients as if they don’t have it while they are infecting medical staff. I doubt we are doing contact tracking. There’s no point since we can’t do anything with that info in our system.

                The point where Italy panicked and finally acted was when they started testing all their ICU admissions. 10% of the total in Milan. At that point, they were too late since they only had a couple days left to act before triaging at the hospital door.

        2. #polarbearlivesmattereventhoughtheyrewhite.

        3. Pity it doesn’t exist outside of faked data and rigged computer models.

      2. One to 298 in 15 days is a pretty slow infection rate.

        Well, if you like such simplistic estimates of growth rates, let’s go with it: that it will be 90000 cases in another two weeks, then 27 million cases two weeks later.

      3. Australia has 377 confirmed cases now. So 80 higher in 12 or so hours. They have just hit the WTF acceleration point on the curve.

  5. 2017-2018 flu season killed an estimated 80,000 people.
    That’s a few hundred deaths a day, yet somehow the bars stayed open and any school closings were a local event.

    1. “That’s because we *knew* the death rate, so no problem!”

    2. People hadn’t yet figured out how to blame it on Trump.

      1. Corona virus is not Trump’s fault (or maybe it is) but Trump sticking his greedy little hands in America’s finances is totally his fault. I don’t know, just saying.

        1. Your TDS means your comments are NWS.

        2. “I don’t know, just saying.” – – well you’re right about both those things.

      2. People hadn’t yet figured out how to blame it on Trump.

        And they sure as hell weren’t going to blame it on Woodrow “worst President” Wilson

    3. Only about 15% of the population was infected.

      The danger with the coronavirus is not just case lethality, but higher infection rates, giving two multipliers to the flu load, increasing the chances of overwhelming medical resources.

      All this “well so many people die of the flu so who cares” is rather odd. Yeah, people die of the flu. And heart disease. Does that mean we shouldn’t care?

      Maybe this will get people a little more civic minded about the flu, and take their damn flu shots in the future, and bring down the number of flu cases each year. Maybe practice a little extra civic hygiene too.

      1. Two things that drive our response.

        One, we have no natural immunity to SARS-nCov-2, and there are no therapeutic treatments.

        Two, the contagiousness of this virus is very, very high and that is true even with asymptomatic sufferers. It is the asymptomatic transmission that stands out.

        Social distance + hand washing + stay away from sick people seems like a common-sense solution here until we get this figured out.

    4. There are seriously people who still don’t get the difference in the math??? WTF is wrong with you. Did you drop out of school in 3rd grade or something???

  6. Coronavirus Epidemic May Be Slowed by Warm and Humid Weather

    However, it seems to be sped up by warm and humid lung tissue.

    1. Well if you’re keeping your lungs all nasty and wet, then it’s your own damned fault. Does no one practice basic lung hygiene anymore?

    2. 9th grade bio class – that was you they put over by the window to play with the dust in the sunbeams, right?

  7. “Coronavirus Epidemic May Be Slowed by Warm and Humid Weather”
    Global warming to the rescue!

    1. At this point, if we’re not ramping up CO2 output to at least double what it is today, then we’re really dropping the ball as a society.

    2. Kinda, actually. People tend to eat better, get more exercise, get out of stuffy houses, and naturally increase their distances in summer. Increasing immune systems and separating just a bit more can make a huge difference. So warm weather…. perhaps, but certainly indirectly.

  8. The pandemic is not causing anything like the damage from the media-fueled panic.
    Will warm weather cause brain cells to start rational thought again?
    The US now records something well under 100 deaths FROM THE HORRIBLE DISEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! in a population of 300,000,000, and that number is distorted as a result of one poorly-run nursing home in WA.
    QUICK! RUN TO TEH STORE AND BUY E3VERYTHING YOU CAN FIND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. REPOST FROM ABOVE, SINCE SAME RESPONSE WARRANTED

      There are seriously people who still don’t get the difference in the math??? WTF is wrong with you. Did you drop out of school in 3rd grade or something???

  9. All the people who trust the C.C.P to give honest advice on the virus please show us your hands.

    1. Well, they did likely create this in one of their bioweapons labs. So there is that.

      1. True, but according to them, it was on a contract from the US Army.
        #trustallcommies

        1. “True, but according to them, it was on a contract from the US Army.”

          Yeah, their internal dissent must be pretty high in order for them to play with that sort of fire. Whipping the population into a jingoistic frenzy because ‘the Americans did this to them’ can easily backfire.

    2. Those dirty, Godless chicoms may be lying, but there’s a paper out by a group of public-health researchers at the University of Maryland pointing to a similar trend:

      https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/will-springtime-stop-covid-19.php

    3. Their info is far more honest now than the US. The fact is that they truly stomped on the curve before it could take off. That doesn’t mean their problems are over. It simply means, their biggest risk is now importing cases from other countries. Because outside Hubei, 99% or so of their population has not been exposed. Even in Wuhan city – under 7 week lockdown – its very probable that only 10% or so of the population has been exposed. Most have recovered, some are dead (and certainly more than their numbers show) and 7000 or so are still clogging their hospitals.

      And that lockdown started when they had around 400 confirmed cases and 17 deaths in Wuhan

      1. The danger is that as they ease up on shit they’ll have an explosion of cases again though… It will likely be a lighter curve, but if 700 million Chinese catch this shit between now and the end of next winter, that’s gonna be a mighty big mess still.

        Preferable to the massive/fast spike scenario of course… But not awesome.

      2. Fucking China propagandist one reason? Fuck you commie. China did no better or worse – that’s best case scenario. They fucking lied for weeks trying to shut everyone up about it. Plus they have got the WHO in their pocket.

        My guess is one of our countries either made it happen on purpose, or let it happen on purpose. Probably due to the escalating tariff wars. Expect war with China real soon.

        1. You know, now that I think about it, a really good nuclear war strategy would be to make everyone sit in their houses instead of congregate en masse in the city corporate buildings. Chances are higher that a good percentage of talented people would survive.

      3. Your info about Chinese “honesty” should have even hurt YOUR brain before you wrote it. So they told you they are being honest now, and that’s the measure by which you judge what they say publicly?

        I’ve got a great used car for you. It’s great…. and I’m being honest about it.

  10. Can we stop with the “may” and “possible” on both sides of the topic? The reason there is panic is because the CDC says it is “possible” to have a 100k deaths. They assign no probability. Just use conjecture. That is causing the panic. Just list the damn facts.

    1. “Oh, very well. It may be possible that the probability of 100K deaths is 0.23.”

    2. Look at Italy 3 weeks ago. Then look at them now. They’re stacking bodies in churches because they don’t have room in the crematoria for them, and (I guess) can’t get a front end loader to dig a pit.

      Now, Italian medicine, despite a larger number of beds/per population, is supposedly a lackadaisical practice compared to the US. Italy skews much older than the US. They smoke more, and their population density is higher, helping the virus disseminate. They evidently have a terrible time every flu season if the vaccine isn’t a good match.

      Nonetheless, three weeks ago, this was no big deal for them, and now, they’re not far removed from martial law/civil disorder/bodies in the street. Let’s take some precautions, like South Korea or Taiwan, and make sure that what happened to Italy doesn’t happen here.

      1. “Look at Italy 3 weeks ago. Then look at them now. They’re stacking bodies in churches because they don’t have room in the crematoria for them, and (I guess) can’t get a front end loader to dig a pit.”

        Bullshit.
        There are, at last count, fewer than 2,000 deaths in all of Italy; a country with a population of 60.8 million.

        1. Go read some Italian-language news around Northern Italy. It’s easy with Google Translate. When you do, you’ll see they’re having a bad time. And that they weren’t, three weeks ago. Their death rate, last I looked, was around 7 percent. Again, many different factors between Italy and here, that’ll make it worse for them.

          Or don’t read them. I don’t give a fuck. Keep proving your ignorance.

          It’s not a reason to rip the country apart. But this is a virus that is deadlier, in every country that’s looked at it, than regular influenza, and it’s easier to spread. Total pneumonia related deaths here will skyrocket, versus 2018 and earlier. Not all Covid deaths are going to be listed as Covid deaths. The lack of testing kits is a big reason why.

          Is all of that a reason to shut everything down and panic? No. Practice good hygiene and use whatever resources are possible to improve ICU bed numbers and numbers of respiratory assistance devices plus their operators? Yeah.

          1. Clang! Bring out yer Dead! Clang! Bring out yer Dead!

    3. It “may” happen is scientific malpractice.

      Probabilistic estimates should always be put in probabilistic terms with ranges of outcomes.

      I would note that pandemics are *long tailed*. Yes, maybe only thousands. But maybe millions too.

    4. d00d… Seriously.

      The fucking math on this shit is easy enough to understand for a damn 10 year old.

      The bottom line is if we did nothing to contain this we’d almost certainly have MILLIONS of deaths.

      If every single person hid in their house for 2 weeks we’d have ZERO new deaths.

      So the question is: What level of BS can we put up with to bring the deaths down to a reasonable level. It’s debatable, but IMO requires quite a few actions.

      I’m fine with suggestions of “Don’t fucking leave your house for anything but work and shit you HAVE to do.” In areas that aren’t hit hard yet, that alone will probably be enough to keep it chill.

      Where I am in Seattle I think the closing of stuff is reasonable until we get things back under control.

      The BS in SF where they’re telling people they can’t leave their house at night etc is overboard by any standard.

      1. If every single person hid in their house for 2 weeks we’d have ZERO new deaths.

        This is wrong. It will take longer than that for the virus to present in many people. If everyone goes back to business as usual it will start all over again. This has been documented for the Spanish flu and other pandemics. And the 2nd wave is usually harsher than the first.

        Expect to be confined to quarters until the 4th of July or so.

        1. Yeah, I know 2 weeks is a little shy. I did put “new” deaths there. Some people have it stick around longer than that, but at 3-4 weeks it would pretty much stop it in its tracks.

          My general point still stands.

  11. So, then…it wasn’t “wishful thinking” when Trump suggested that warmer weather would help slow the spread of the virus?

    It would be fascinating to see the coronavirus news coverage from an alternative universe where the Media actually tried to objectively report the facts, instead of filtering every story through a prism designed to make Trump look bad.

    1. It is not wishful thinking at all. It is a solid educated guess on how other viruses of this sort have behaved. Of course, if Trump said the opposite, we would be hearing about how he is causing panic.

      I always thought a President was supposed to be as optimistic and reassuring to the public as reasonably possible. I seem to recall past Presidents saying things like “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” and such being praised. But Orange Man Bad has even ruined that and now it is “wishful thinking”. Trump is such an idiot he just won’t accept that he is a failure and responsible for all the bad things that occur in the world. What an idiot.

      1. It really is something to watch.

        They jumped on him for every smart action he’s taken and everything he did right… He screwed the pooch quite enough already without making shit up. The media is out of control.

    2. fascinating

      I see what you did there.

  12. http://www.campusreform.org/?ID=14535

    Several West Virginia University students were arrested after police issued several warnings.
    The incident involving the large crowd occurred as authorities are encouraging people to pratice social distancing.
    WVU is just one of dozens of universities nationwide that transitioned to online only classes because of coronavirus.

    Good to see generation retard doing their best to keep calm and carry on.

    1. “Pay attention to us!” explained the student demonstrators

    2. “The incident involving the large crowd occurred as authorities are encouraging people to pratice social distancing.”

      If arrests are being made, sounds like a bit more than “encouraging”.

    3. Countries will fare as well as their citizens behave. The Japanese wear masks in public. Americans aren’t showing as much diligence.

  13. Let’s take the average climate of a randomly chosen American city—say, Washington, D.C.

    Excellent article Ron. I hope that we are able to lower the curve before warmer weather (again hopefully) gives us some tailwind and opens up some hospital capacity as well. But I see the politics of this randomly chosen city rather different. While DC will certainly claim credit, I doubt they will use that declining threat to finish the preparations for round 2. Esp since DC has proven itself totally incompetent so far. They really should simply admit that and let the states do the prep for round 2 and simply fund that and coordinate whatever knowledge can be shared via an interstate compact form.

    Instead I suspect that DC will pivot to bailing out the financial markets. Propping up the bubble and all the other stuff that actually distorts our ability to deal with 2nd round and simply pretends that the bubble will soon continue as normal and happy days will soon be here again. Recessions serve a purpose – esp when they allow for the transition of a workforce from selling/financing real estate and stocks and selling internet ads to fighting an epidemic. ‘Free market’ R’s no longer seem to accept recessions or creative destruction. Esp not in an election year.

    And if warmer weather does help during the summer, I suspect that airconditioned offices will mean that it doesn’t look as much like 1918 in the southern half of CONUS.

    1. That said – thanks much for that link to the temp calcs and research. I’ve seen some number that finds optimum spread at 9C (50F). Being able to calc/predict how it changes from optimum is gonna be useful knowledge.

    2. So randomly pick a city built on a malarial swamp?

      1. No – randomly choose a city from the universe of the cities where all the federal decision-makers are in a country that no longer decentralizes decisions and where DeRps around the country have completely committed to in an election year.

        1. And a city that has more international travelers from more places in the world than any other. Just a random typical city….that should sink in the swamp.

    3. And looks like in the randomly chosen city from the universe of cities where I live, they’ve just announced that restaurants and bars (except for take-out) are closed for the next eight weeks. Pretty harsh move considering we only have 25 confirmed cases in the city/county right now.

      Great news for my neighborhood since I live in one of those old-fashioned places where a couple blocks of chi-chi and niche restaurants and other destinations is surrounded by many blocks of residential. And all packed this weekend with millennials, x’s and z’s who are lower-risk and new to town. All those places have been doing for their local neighbors – me – is attracting assholes from many miles around to fuck up the parking. Now – hmm – they’re going to have to either figure out how to attract neighbors in walking distance – or really sink into a hole.

      I should head over to their merchants association. Methinks there may be opportunities here. This sort of decentralized action – whether it works or not or is even ethical or not – is the best way to move forward. Even better if the feds had an interstate compact for health type stuff – where states themselves could share info and learn what works/doesn’t from each other instead of deferring to and relying solely on the incompetent poobahs and czars in DC.

      1. Well, the messed up thing is acting harshly early is kind of the smart move.

        I’m in Seattle… I may have Covid-19 and am trying to get checked… That’s quite a fucking mess.

        But if we’d taken more modest steps earlier we wouldn’t be in crisis mode now.

        I think an advisement of “Don’t go out other than to work and if you HAVE TO.” Should be step one. That should be EVERY city in the country right now. Outright 100% closure of lots of stuff has to be step 2 though if it gets a firm hold.

        It sucks… But it beats letting this shit run wild and kill a minimum of a couple million people. Could you imagine if the real worst case scenario, as in hospitals overloaded, is REALLY 7% like in Italy. That’s some REAL shit there. I’m of the mind that 1% is realistic from all the reading I’ve done, assuming it works its way through most of the population, but hospitals don’t get overrun. That’d be bad enough.

        1. The Spanish flu took out 1% of the Philadelphia population, but only 0.1% in St Louis where they cancelled the big Buy War Bonds parade. WW1.

  14. I think I might have had coronavirus in January. The reason I say it and I’m not all sure is that I experienced a sickness unlike anything I had ever experienced before and I remember making note of the uniqueness of the experience. It was super charged symptoms that went on and on. I could definitely see the experience taking down a more vulnerable person.

    1. Singapore recently announced a preliminary antibody test. They’ve done a good of testing and tracking recovery of infected without being overwhelmed by the seriously sick

      Antibody test will be useful going forward to see if this virus respects immunity or not.

      1. Singapore is 90 degrees F all day and night year round. I think the cure there is just tell the person to go outside for a walk around the block.

        1. And if they had done what you advise, then they wouldn’t have developed an antibody test. Unlike the US however they have been smart from the start and treated this seriously precisely because they didn’t just assume it was like the flu or was a political hoax or could be cured by a walk around the block but might instead be something like a tropical disease or even a deadly temperate disease.

          Yes it turns out they are probably lucky re their location – until/unless the virus mutates. They had their 1st confirmed case the same day we did I think. Had 4 a few days later when they upgraded their DORSCON (disease outbreak response part of their militia service) from green to yellow (a couple days after Hubei locked down). Started testing everyone coming to hospital with those symptoms – and the DORSCON folks followed up with the contact tracing and testing – and followed up medically with all the positives.

          So today they have 243 confirmed cases (a reasonably solid number since they even created a full contact trail and put that online somewhere), 0 deaths, and 109 (doesn’t seem to have been updated much for a week or so) recovered. The US for same first day has only 17 marked as recovered (4138 cases (total BS) and 71 deaths). It is that recovered number – 109 v 17 – that provides the antibodies for developing an antibody test.

          So absent that location which took it seriously even though it turns out it didn’t need to – we now have an antibody test in a location that needs to take it seriously and hasn’t.

      2. Antibody test is interesting.

        As I said in a post above I have symptoms NOW, but it’s been mild, which is as to be expected from somebody my age.

        That said, I had the worst “flu” of my life in late December. I’m in Seattle, and am in close quarters with shit tons of Chinese nationals all the time under normal circumstances… So I wouldn’t be surprised if I had it then.

        If I end up being able to get tested now and am negative, but test positive for antibodies in the future, that probably means I was one of the first people outside China to catch it!

    2. Same for me! I am 40, and have never been sick with a flu, and only 2 times in my life have I ever experienced cold symptoms. But something got me right after Christmas and ruined my New Year’s. It was the shittiest I have ever felt and lasted a week. My wife still has a cough from it 3 months later.

      1. That was the same thing that happened to me, but it was right before Christmas.

        I was sick for weeks, and I’m usually a tank. It lingered for ages afterwards, all in the lungs.

  15. So Trump was right again. Dang that man is a super geniuous

    1. The geniusest genius ever. Not too shabby for a Bad Orange Man.

    2. All hail GEOTUS!

    3. Yes, and he’s going to get the Mexicans and Canadians to build border walls!

  16. Glad I live in Houston. We currently average 70 as our high and while March is our least humid month it is still at 73% humidity on average. So screw Coronovirus and bring back the Rodeo.

    1. Keep calm and cowboy on – –

    2. canceling the Rodeo flies in the face of what it means to be an American dammit.

    3. I figured a long time ago with this thing that the south, and especially Texas/SW would get it easy. I bet that ends up being the case.

  17. Is this really surprising? You get colds from being around people, which is worse when it’s cold and you’re inside and not because you get cold outside.

  18. Temperatures across the US are forecast to be above average for the next three months. Never have I been so happy to hear it.

  19. Corona vs. Global Warming is the Predator vs. Alien of the 20’s.

  20. Once they’ve crunched the data, the researchers find that a one degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower the R value by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively.

    Under AOC’s timetable, in 20 years Global Warming will mean no more viruses.

  21. If, as many experts suspect, warmer weather slows the transmission of COVID19, we are overreacting in a way that will exacerbate the risk. The weather is about to get warmer. We could flatten the curve by ensuring that more people are infected in the summer. This way, people can be treated in the summer when the hospitals have the capacity, to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed next winter. While it is not 100% certain, most experts believe that once people recover, they have immunity.

    1. That’s all true in theory. But I just saw a projection/map a couple days ago of how many cases of covid19 we could have by about then compared with the number of available hosp beds and ICU beds. And ‘summer’ may not make much of a difference. Wish I could find it but I seem to remember up to 24 cases per marginal bed in some Western states and 10 or so in places where population has declined a lot but where hospitals haven’t really yet shut down.

      My guess is – it will all resolve itself once people discover how exponential growth works

      1. With reports out of the Orient that reinfection is a problem, and that it is leading to a cytokine storm in reinfected patients, this disease ought to be treated with a lot more seriousness than it has been. Italy was reporting a mortality of 6.6, and multiple countries are reporting that ~15% of patients require weeks to even over a month on a ventilator. If spread isn’t curbed, hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed, just as in Italy, where they are considering telling anyonr 80+ to just go home and await death.

        1. The reinfection thing is troubling… One possible cause is obviously relapse, BUT two different enough to tell early strains in Wuhan are also known to exist. The proportion of cases infected with which strain shifted as the thing exploded too… But both are still going around.

          So it is possible people are getting hit with both strains, but once they get both they may be immune to both.

          If people outright don’t develop immunity that could be a real problem.

    2. “Let’s infect people” may not be the right strategy.

      They’ve started tests on a vaccine in Seattle.

    3. I was thinking the same thing regarding summer.

      If it does chill out, I suspect we will life restrictions out of sheer economic necessity, and allow the low level spread for the reasons you give.

      If it doesn’t chill out is what will give us a real problem.

  22. Where are all the usual cocksuckers with their market’s imploding jokes?

    Good time to buy though. Cant wait until this bottoms out, might make as much of a killing as I did under O

    Hope recovery is quick for Trump’s sake. When the comparisons of Os run to Trumps run happen, it wont look good where O more than doubled and Trump couldnt sustain (might end up being negative on his watch!)

    1. You mean Trump can’t keep it up??

      He IS 73, after all.

  23. The market crash set in violently on 20 Feb. Almost all market crashes since 2007 are caused by the fascist prohibitionist Financial Action Task Force. What was it doing and where when the spaghetti hit the FAT FAn? “FATF Week, 16-21 February 2020. On Sunday 16 February, more than 800 representatives from 205 countries and jurisdictions around the world, the IMF, UN, World Bank and other organisations, will arrive for FATF Week in Paris, France…” These are George Bush’s “faith-based” asset-forfeiture prohibitionists whose policies caused the crash of 2008 and the two Flash Crashes of May 2010 and March 2015. There is your Herbert Hoover-Harry Anslinger-Bush Daddy, Bush Jr shadow government. The communovirus is a nifty smokescreen–except for the dates.

  24. Perhaps, perhaps not.

  25. Here are the facts:

    COVID19 does not make healthy children ill
    COVID19 is equal to a serious cold in healthy adults 9 to 60
    COVID19 can kill seniors and persons with immune disease

    1. Can kill 1/500 perfectly healthy prime age adults, which is higher than the OVERALL flu death rate, which ALSO mostly kills seniors.

      Kills 1/250 middle aged people.

      It ain’t a flu dude. It’s not the end of the world, but it is a big problem.

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  27. So the incorrect reporting that the UK decided to let it run wild gave me an idea…

    Herd immunity is a thing. A novel approach might actually be to get every child and prime age adult in the country sick in perhaps 2 blocks of 2 weeks each… Then the majority of the population would be immune, and the whole thing would be over with in a month! Since very few of those people would need hospital care it’d be pretty legit!

    The problem being 1/500 healthy young adults die, and 1/250 middle aged people… So might be a tough sell. LOL

    But in some ways if old people are staying home more than young people, we might be almost doing this automatically right now anyway. That’s essentially CDC guidance right now, old people stay home totally, younger people go out but be cautious.

    It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.

  28. Soooo, “Global Warming” is a good thing now.

    1. And has always been a good thing since the last Ice Age.

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  30. Let’s hope it will end soon

  31. Finally, a reason to like summer.

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  35. CDC: “From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather. Regardless of climate, adopt protective measures if you live in, or travel to an area reporting COVID-19. The best way to protect yourself against COVID-19 is by frequently cleaning your hands. By doing this you eliminate viruses that may be on your hands and avoid infection that could occur by then touching your eyes, mouth, and nose…There is no reason to believe that cold weather can kill the new coronavirus or other diseases. The normal human body temperature remains around 36.5°C to 37°C, regardless of the external temperature or weather. “

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