Immigration

Special Visas for the Rust Belt? 

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With birth rates plunging and baby boomers retiring, the American economy is going to need workers. Unless someone comes up with a magical formula to boost fertility, that means we'll need more immigrants.

So the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), a consortium of politically diverse investors, entrepreneurs, and economists, deserves credit for trying to figure out an immigration-based plan that would spare America from the coming labor crisis that could drain economic growth to under 2 percent. But the EIG's proposed solution, which is to create a special category of visas that would repopulate Rust Belt towns and other places that have been left behind by the modern economy, is flawed.

It's true that the Northeast and the Midwest have been hit particularly hard and that they risk falling into a cycle where, as populations shrink, employers flee, taking jobs with them. This erodes the tax base, which in turn impacts public services, causing further population loss. Rinse, wash, repeat.

To reverse this cycle, the EIG suggests granting "Heartland Visas" to skilled foreigners on the condition that they move to depressed areas targeted for renewal, such as Detroit. The authors liken this plan to Canada's Provincial Nominee Program, in which Canada's central government hands every province a number of visas with which to recruit immigrants of their choice, in addition to those admitted by Ottawa. In essence, it lets provinces write their own immigration policies for about a third of those allowed in.

The Canadian system isn't a top-down effort at economic renewal or development. It allows a granular matching of workers to local economic needs. Even though immigrants could move out of their sponsoring province, about 80 percent don't. The EIG doesn't flesh out its proposal in detail, but it's pretty clear Heartland Visas wouldn't work the same way.

In Canada, provinces can recruit immigrants of any skill level, from welders to computer engineers. Heartland Visas, meanwhile, are recommended only for "skilled" foreigners, amplifying the current bias in America's immigration system that prioritizes the demands of high-tech industries over rural economies. (The EIG is funded mostly by folks from the technology sector.) That could breed a mismatch between local needs and the immigrants who are admitted.

Moreover, disproportionate population losses are a symptom of broader governance problems. Local and state governments in these places have often failed to achieve crime-free environments with good schools and decent public services. They also erect regulatory obstacles that thwart entrepreneurship. Plunking immigrants in such places and expecting them to perform miracles when they can't vote or run for political office will only set them up for failure and diminish public support in the long run.

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85 responses to “Special Visas for the Rust Belt? 

  1. Birds + Bees = Magical Fertility Formula

    1. That’s science. You can’t argue with science.

  2. What? I seriously doubt we have a labor shortage while automation and the welfare rolls continue growing. This sounds like a typical Shikha argument where the justification is nonsense but the goal is to always bring more people from the third world into the US. I also question the intent of anyone suggesting that we need more human widgets when the world population keeps growing. An economy’s volume is not as much of a sign of it’s health as per capita wealth/living standards.

  3. Why not just teach the illegals to code while they sit in “the camps” waiting to be released into the wild?

  4. More foreign workers means lower wages and higher housing prices for Americans, and thereby plunging American birth rates.

    Japan isn’t importing a foreign successor population to replace themselves. Why should Americans?

    Curious how the plan for “new visas for the Rust Belt” magically appears after Trump squeezes out a victory in the Rust Belt.

    Countries are people.
    Import Not Americans, become Not America.

    1. ” Unless someone comes up with a magical formula to boost fertility, that means we’ll need more immigrants.”

      Less imported labor means more job security for Americans, higher wages, and cheaper housing. Financial security is a prime driver of working class fertility.

      Abracadabra!

      1. No one is really concerned about “imported” labor. The major concern is the forced without consent labor that keeps invading our country.

        1. Our major concerns are millions of unskilled people bidding down wages and using up expensive taxpayer-funded services.

          Struggling Americans can’t get a raise because there’s a crowd of people from Central America bidding down wages. Their local schools can’t teach kids to succeed because too many kids don’t even speak English. The guy who can’t get a raise sees his local taxes go up to pay for all the government services. With no chance for a good education for his children, his family’s future has been stolen. Some families can escape this fate, but that doesn’t justify the harm to the American families who can’t.

          1. Struggling Americans can’t get a raise because there’s a crowd of people from Central America bidding down wages.

            Gee, maybe there are a whole bunch of factors involved in wage trends rather than just labor competition from foreigners? Maybe things like the decline in unionization play a role? How about automation? How about international trade and outsourcing? How about increased regulatory pressure forcing companies to keep costs (and hence wages) down? But no, you just go straight to blaming it all on the foreigners.

            1. Why add to the burden?

              Automation doesn’t fill the schools with non-English speaking children. Outsourcing doesn’t fill the handyman or landscaping jobs a local guy might have used to bridge over the tough times.

              1. Automation doesn’t fill our schools with students unfamiliar with English. That’s the job for Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi, and Oklahoma.

                Anti-immigrant voices have been part of America throughout our history. The losing part. This latest batch of bigots seems nothing special. Some of them are descended from the immigrants disparaged generations ago.

                1. The “Rev.” uses Alabama and Mississippi as codewords for NEGROES.

              2. How about, let’s investigate the problem of slow wage growth in proportion to the relative weight of the factors involved? Even Borjas, the most anti-immigration economist out there, concludes that labor competition from foreign labor contributes only a small amount to low wage growth.

                But do go ahead and continue to blame it all on the foreigners, it only reveals a true agenda of being opposed to the foreigners and using economic arguments only as a motte-and-bailey tactic to persuade the noobs.

          2. “Our major concerns are millions of unskilled people bidding down wages and using up expensive taxpayer-funded services.”

            While wages are a legitimate concern, I’m more concerned over voting than wages.

            Import big government voters. Get bigger government.

        2. No one is really concerned about “imported” labor.

          A major and rising concern is imported NON-labor. Some immigrant groups experience very high unemployment in the US. It’s even worse in Europe, where mandated employee benefits make it very expensive to hire low-skill workers. Contrary to the “let the market decide” rhetoric of the open borders advocates, these unemployed immigrants do not go home because they can’t find work here. Nor do their countrymen stop coming, knowing employment prospects are poor. They come and stay whether our economy has any use for them or not. On those rare occasions when they do return to their homelands, it’s usually to pursue a career in Islamic terrorism.

          https://www.mprnews.org/story/2015/04/01/somali-unemployment

      2. That assertion has no basis in reality.

        In fact, reality shows that the richer and more financially secure people are the lower their fertility rate. This goes from third world hell-holes all the way to the top end of the first world.

        Children are expensive and have massive opportunity costs. People only have them mostly as a way to increase their long-term income – children have been a parent’s retirement plan for a million years. Once you no longer need the extra income from your children, you stop having as many.

        I do not know how you could look at the patterns of worldwide fertility rates and conclude that as people become more wealthy they want more children.

        1. I said “working class fertility”. Emphasis on working.

          The welfare state does keep fertility rates up by paying women to have children, particularly if they don’t have a live in husband/partner.

          1. I am talking about the working class – as working class wealth has risen, family size has dropped. How many working class people do you know that even have 4 children, let alone 6 or 10?

            Lower class fertility is kept up through subsidies for having children.

    2. “Japan isn’t importing a foreign successor population to replace themselves.”

      Well, maybe they should.

      #OpenBordersForJapan
      #(ButNotForIsrael)

    3. So it’s the Guatemalans’ fault that Americans aren’t having kids.

      Is there anything for which the foreigners aren’t to blame?

      1. Racebaiterjeff is always reading minds, always projecting his hatred on others, and always getting it wrong.

        I don’t blame the foreigners for wanting to come here. If I were from Guatemala, I’d try to invade the US too. But as a Guatemalan, I wouldn’t be blaming Americans for not wanting me to invade and destroy their country, and nor would I blame them for having and enforcing laws to avoid that destruction.

        I blame the Open Borders crowd for impoverishing the American working class and trying to destroy America.

        I blame you.

        1. The only one around here trying to destroy America are people like you who want to turn America into a paranoid xenophobic police state.

          And you blame ME for other Americans not wanting to have kids? That’s pretty rich. Did I kill JFK too?

        2. But as a Guatemalan, I wouldn’t be blaming Americans for not wanting me to invade and destroy their country,

          So a country is defined by blood and soil then, is that what you are getting at?

          Guatemalans can’t be Americans because they have the wrong blood and were born on the wrong side of a line?

          1. “So … [delusional mind reading]”

        3. Maybe the US gov’t shouldn’t have spent the last century overthrowing their democratically elected leaders and causing a 30 year civil war.

          1. True dat. If we had left those democratically elected leaders in charge the populations would have starved to death years ago. Viva Hugo Chavez.

    4. @buybuyanddavis

      Your assertions are shown by history to be trivially false. In the Stone Age there were far fewer people than there are today. But people’s wages had far less purchasing power relative to today. The more people there are, the more it is possible to buy, because people increase economic growth. So more foreign workers would mean higher real wages, although it is possible that nominal wages might decrease.

      When housing prices increase this is because regulations make it hard to build more houses, not because of the increase of people. Absent regulations, the market would increase the housing supply. Even if we take regulations as fixed, immigrants would not increase housing prices if they moved into the Rust belt, which has a surplus of houses. Have you seen all the abandoned houses in Detroit?

      Importing Not Americans creates Americans. If you move to America you become an American. You begin to act like an American because you are incentivized to. America is a pluralistic society that is structured in such a way that people have an incentive to contribute to it and buy into the system. Immigrants do this and as a result they make everything a little better. For instance, the best burger joint in my neighborhood was started by Lebanese immigrants.

      It has always been that way. The different subcultures of English people who came to America in the 1600s were far more different from one another than modern Americans are from modern Chinese or modern Arabs. But they were able to unite, get along, and make America great. Future immigrants will as well. Immigrants are far from the only thing that make America great, but they are a pretty key ingredient. More immigrants=more greatness, it’s that simple.

      1. “Your assertions are shown by history to be trivially false. In the Stone Age…”

        The context of my comments were not the Stone Age. Try again with USA, recent decades.

        “When housing prices increase this is because regulations make it hard to build more houses, not because of the increase of people. ”

        Law of Supply and Demand repealed, because Open Borders Uber Alles!

        “Importing Not Americans creates Americans. If you move to America you become an American. ”

        The Magic Dirt theory of culture.

        “It has always been that way.”

        The US has never had a Welfare State and high immigration until the 1970s and beyond.

        “More immigrants=more greatness, it’s that simple.”

        Mo Not Americans = Mo Bettah!

  5. ” drain economic growth to under 2 percent.”

    Fewer people would need less growth. Growth *per capita* goes up with fewer people. Larger capital stock per capita.

  6. With birth rates plunging and baby boomers retiring, the American economy is going to need workers.

    We have working Americans… a plenty. A whole new generation (Gen Z) are coming of working age and some would rather work than attend years of college.

    Just go away Shikha. We thought you were gone and it was glorious!

    1. “We thought you were gone and it was glorious!”

      Speak for yourself, Captain “Red Wave.” I knew there was no way the nation’s premier journal of open borders advocacy would stop publishing its best immigration writer.

  7. “SHIKHA DALMIA is a senior analyst at Reason Foundation.”

    That’s all you really need to know about “Reason.”

    1. “SHIKHA DALMIA is a senior anal cyst at Reason Foundation.”

      Spell check.

    2. 50-50 that she’s just a Trump mole sent to discredit the Open Borders Uber Alles crowd as a false flag.

      1. Like Apu, Shikha believes the USA is dangerously underpopulated. It must make her nostalgic with all those west coasters crapping in the streets.

  8. I would tell tech companies they must relocate 2 jobs to areas with below average housing costs for every H1B or OPT or similar visa holder they are allowed to hire in an above-average housing cost area.

    These visa programs are good for the US (when the government isn’t stupidly allowing them to be exploited), they should benefit the entire US, not just the coastal areas.

    But only skilled, high salary people. Allowing unskilled people to immigrate to already depressed areas just steepens the decline. The US doesn’t want an internal Honduras near Cincinnati or Omaha.

    1. Parts of Cincinnati are already an “internal Honduras”. Some public high schools there graduate barely over half their students, and the dropout rate for Black male students in those schools can push 70%. We leave a lot of human capital rotting in the fields in this country. Let’s try educating and socializing the young people we have before resorting to importing a replacement generation.

      1. Cincinnati

        What part you from?

        I had my high school degree from Hughes night school. I think I was the only white guy. That was ok because I was like a giraffe wierdo. Only one time had to stand my ground and the dudes backed off. Then things worked out is all I will say.

        Lived in lower price hill, Clifton, Vine st was not some millennial urban venue.

        So tell me about Cincinnati.

        Went to the university and have had a wonderful life.

        Except hard to get real skyline chili here since I moved away.

        1. I’ve been to Cincinnati a number of times and even covered for a colleague there for several months a few years back. I have to say that while I get getta, I’ve never understood why you folks like Skyline Chili so much; it’s thin and tasteless, as chili goes, and it does nothing to enhance pasta, with or without cheese or onions.

          1. You haven’t begun to face the horror. There are two regional Chilis in Ohio; Skyline™ or Cincinnati and Macaroni Chili. The former could, if you squint real hard, pass as a plate of spaghetti. The latter is minestrone soup, made by Midwesterners, trying to pass as chili. I don’t order chili in Ohio, or parts of IN, KY, MI, and WV and when I get stuck eating chili in the region I thank God if it turns out to be Skyline.

    2. ” The US doesn’t want an internal Honduras near Cincinnati or Omaha.”

      The US at large doesn’t. The ruling class and their lickspittle toadies like racebaiterjeff do.

  9. It’s disappointing people are proposing immigration with strings attached. From a Koch / Reason libertarian perspective, the only acceptable policy is 100% open borders. Anyone — adult or child — who enters our country must be allowed to live here, regardless of which state they plan to call home, or what industry (if any) they plan to work in.

    #OpenBorders
    #ImmigrationAboveAll

    1. Indeed, Nick declared @Reason’s “core value” as Open Borders:
      In the 21st century, libertarians are going to have make common cause with the globalists of all parties, with the people whose core value is the right of individuals to move freely around the planet.

      #OperBorderUberAlles
      #LibertariansForAOCAndAgainstRandPaul

    2. I think they want to work the welfare industry, good and hard.

  10. <em?Unless someone comes up with a magical formula to boost fertility, that means we'll need more immigrants.

    Taking 25 hours off from work each day for family time and marking the occasion with wine tends to boost fertility. Israel has less debt per capita and per GDP than the USA. Life expectancy is longer in Israel than in the USA even though healthcare spending is lower. It’s possible to save money by NOT working so hard that you give yourself a heart attack, but then the government looses out on the income tax it collects from the cardiologist.

    1. Re: Shabbat and fertility.
      Eyshet Chayil (proverbs 31) sung after the meal as the candles burn low and the children are getting ready for bed is a song of love. Very sexy really. Kind of the Jewish Barry White.

      Nice version here

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-RJE55XEL64

    2. But that would mean less profit for our Corporate Overlords!

  11. Moreover, disproportionate population losses are a symptom of broader governance problems. Local and state governments in these places have often failed to achieve crime-free environments with good schools and decent public services. They also erect regulatory obstacles that thwart entrepreneurship. Plunking immigrants in such places and expecting them to perform miracles when they can’t vote or run for political office will only set them up for failure and diminish public support in the long run.

    This is a good analysis.

  12. Ask Minneapolis and their “day care centers” how well importing fertility has worked.

    On the flip side, we have willing low skilled workers aplenty in Appalachia through to the great plains. If you’re going to invest in training and development (and possible relocations), no need to go overseas.

    1. we have willing low skilled workers aplenty in Appalachia through to the great plains.

      And we have plenty of illiterate, maleducated young people in our cities who are nearly feral in the socialization. We can’t continue to let them go to waste.

      1. For once I agree with you. Human capital is too important to waste.

        So what are your thoughts on how to best encourage the human capital that we have to reach their fullest potential?

        1. Stop undercutting their potential wages by importing a foreign underclass that can be exploited because they have no legal rights?

          Could that work?

          Deprive the slaver class of their ersatz slaves and maybe things would get better?

        2. Introduce Roman martial games in our ,most of the time, unused publicly paid Colosseums.

  13. “It’s true that the Northeast and the Midwest have been hit particularly hard and that they risk falling into a cycle where, as populations shrink, employers flee, taking jobs with them. This erodes the tax base, which in turn impacts public services, causing further population loss. Rinse, wash, repeat.”

    It’s now Reason’s official position that *government services* is the lynchpin of regional economics success?? You don’t think people follow the jobs whether or not bureaucrats are able to shell out millions for public art projects, or light rail boondoggles? I feel like I don’t even know you any more, Reason.

  14. Nobody from the rest of the first world wants to live here, and the people here don’t want third worlders coming. There’s only one solution. We’re already overturning Roe, so it’s forced birth centers for white women. It’s a legitimate function of government!

    1. aka the real life Handmaid’s Tale

    2. Betcha a nickel the US has the largest first world immigrant population in the world.

      1. By far, I’m sure.

      2. He’s talking about Oklahoma.

    3. There is no such thing as first or third world. Funny how there is no second world talked about.

      There alternate realities in sci fi fiction which I like.

  15. Immigrants traditionally bring the population and attributes (entrepreneurship, optimism, drive, emphasis on education) that currently are sorely needed precisely where the xenophobia is strongest — the backwaters hollowed out by generations of bright flight. To some degree, immigration might be the sole practical hope for can’t-keep-up America.

    1. “emphasis on education”

      Well said, Art.

      I remember at my high school there were many brown bodies whose families came from places like Mexico. And these students almost without exception took the hardest available STEM classes, like AP Biology and AP Calculus. Seriously, AP Calc attendance was basically “Garcia? Here. Lopez? Here. Martinez? Here. Rodriguez? Here.” Barely a white body in sight.

      #MexicansDominateSTEM

      1. I remember at my high school there were many brown bodies whose families came from places like Mexico. And these students almost without exception took the hardest available STEM classes, like AP Biology and AP Calculus. Seriously, AP Calc attendance was basically “Garcia? Here. Lopez? Here. Martinez? Here. Rodriguez? Here.” Barely a white body in sight.

        #MexicansDominateSTEM

        If it was anything like my HS, Garcia, Lopez, Martinez, and Rodriguez were all girls. None of the Mexican guys had grueling low-paying jobs that might motivate them to get an education. They were all content to plan their quinceañeras and looked forward to a relatively cushy life of housewife or part-time maid cleaning persons or Señnor Moms. Mexican girls were always leery about coming up short of their potential by falling in with the boys and winding up tripped up by the familial pitfalls.

  16. “In Canada, provinces can recruit immigrants of any skill level, from welders to computer engineers. ”

    Anybody who think ‘welders to computer engineers’ denotes a range of skill LEVELS, rather than a range of skills, doesn’t know squat about welding.

    1. Anybody who think ‘welders to computer engineers’ denotes a range of skill LEVELS, rather than a range of skills, doesn’t know squat about welding.

      Welders, boilermakers, millwrights, drill operators, computer engineers, internists and thoracic surgeons… it’s all so beneath big thinkers like Dalmia.

      And journolists wonder why people hate them.

  17. It’s true that the Northeast and the Midwest have been hit particularly hard and that they risk falling into a cycle where, as populations shrink, employers flee, taking jobs with them. This erodes the tax base, which in turn impacts public services, causing further population loss. Rinse, wash, repeat.

    This is simply a false description of what has happened. At least in Detroit, which was mentioned specifically. The Detroit area is neither depressed nor losing population. It is the central city only that lost population (on a massive scale) due to the usual list of factors (crime, corruption, lousy schools & public services, high-taxes, and racial polarization) but — and this is the thing that so pundits miss over and over and over — the population that left the city did not leave the area but rather shifted to the suburbs and exurbs. The city is a third of the size it was at its 1950 peak while the surrounding area, on net, soaked up all of the 1.2 million who left the city and added another million or so on top during that period. And even the central city’s population has stabilized post bankruptcy, with only a negligible loss for several years.

    I’m in favor of more liberal immigration, but the rust belt visa idea seems like a bad one, and the ‘vicious cycle’ of regional job and population loss simply doesn’t exist.

    1. +1 for actual journalism

      I’d never seen anyone make the point about the people of Detroit simply moving to the suburbs and exurbs of Detroit before.

      1. i was in Dearborn area last week and was amazed at the Ford (and other) tech campuses. Restaurants were jammed even on a Monday night. Didn’t see any blight.

  18. The Somali communities in Minneapolis and Columbus Ohio seem to have done fairly well. I do not think it was a program but I think they have a strong sense of identity and community.

    Jewish, Irish Italian, and other groups had some cohesion at least initially, formed organizations and tended to help each other out in business and other ways. It was not all skittles and ice cream but overall it worked.

    That has been the key for immigrant groups in general. You are not going to do well just dropping people here or there based on skills. It would need to be more organic than that.

    This program seems too artificial and contrived to actually work out.

    Look there is no need to repopulate Youngstown. It is just a smaller city now. The boom is over.

    Like those ghost mining towns out west there is no more gold, the saloon and brothel closed up and people moved on.

    1. Look there is no need to repopulate Youngstown. It is just a smaller city now.

      +1

      There’s an odd notion that the peak sizes of cities were somehow the ‘right’ sizes. But at it’s peak, Detroit was more densely populated than all current U.S. cities besides NYC and SF. Even now, after losing two thirds of its population, Detroit is still denser than a number of large American cities, including Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Austin, San Diego, and Indianapolis. And Youngstown? It’s even higher in the rankings — about as dense as San Jose, CA.

      1. +1 for the resident Detroit historical demography expert

    2. Somali enclaves in the US continue to suffer very high unemployment and high crime rates.

  19. MAGICAL FORMULA TO BOST FERTILITY:
    Remove the blatant misandry in divorce laws. Make divorce a serious financial hit to both parties equally. End alimony or at least restrict it to a period of three years. End family court altogether, and place such matters back into the purview of real court. End the restraining order system. Pass a law recognizing that all children born outside of marriage are the sole legal and financial responsibility of the female who chose not to abort them. (Her body, her choice…)

    Fertility will easily jump 250% in less than half a decade.

    1. None of that would increase fertility. It might marginally increase your odds of fathering another child with your otherwise ex, but if she’s gonna have another kid, well, she probably could find another guy to do the deed.

    2. Or bring back the draft, women first this time, only deferment for mothers and pregnant women.

  20. *YAWN* Such an oldschool view of macroeconomics. In order to have enough people to pay into the pyramid scheme of government ensured retirement, we must have a growing population. In order to keep the economy growing, we must have a growing population. All BS, and that’s a good thing, because population is peaking, and will start declining soon, worldwide. Luckily, a growing population is nothing more than a way to increase productivity. We can do the same through technology, and without burdening us all with driving through the traffic resulting from a planetary population of 30 billion people.

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  22. Only about 1-2% of the immigrant population work in farms. 90% of immigrants, incoming or otherwise, will avoid icky seasonal jobs (like peeling crabs or lawn work) that Americans apparently won’t do.

    You probably won’t earn living wages and healthcare benefits working for immigrants – and that’s assuming you ever work for them at all. If you’re working for them chances are you’re working cash registers at a boba tea shop or Taiwanese bread shop. If you’re lucky, maybe you work at a Hyundai office.

    I often joke to my friends that if white democrats worked for immigrants and get treated the way Asians treat Latinos or other Asians, they’ll say “close the border” within 2 years. Rich people get rich investing in a great market, that remains true for all of humanity. Irvine is more than half Asian and super wealthy. On a rare day with no traffic it’s probably only 30,40 minutes away from the poorest parts of So Cal.

  23. If declining fertility rates are now a problem to be solved, maybe then they are not something to be celebrated.

  24. Unless someone comes up with a magical formula to boost fertility, that means we’ll need more immigrants.

    Bounty of $30,000 for every live birth.

    This isn’t hard.

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  26. Many US workers can’t get full-time work. They are available to
    be paid to do more.

    In addition, many US employers unnecessarily demand college degrees as
    a way of filtering out some applicants. If they stop doing this they
    will be able to hire people out of high school. This will give each
    worker more years of productive work (supposing the working conditions
    do not wreck the worker’s body).

    1. Employers also deliberately give part-time workers irregular schedules to make it more difficult for them to work additional jobs.

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