Gary Johnson

A Brutal New Poll for Gary Johnson's Senate Bid Has Him Down to Just 8% (UPDATE: Bad Poll)

Two new surveys this week show the Libertarian fading fast in New Mexico, though his overall polling average remains at 17%.


Gary Johnson, sunset. ||| Matt Welch
Matt Welch

Carroll Strategies released a new poll today in the race for U.S. Senate from New Mexico, and the news is brutal for Libertarian Gary Johnson: just 8.4 percent, compared to 50.7 percent for incumbent Democrat Marin Heinrich and 37.9 percent for Republican Mick Rich. That's lower than the 9.3 percent Johnson received in New Mexico for president in 2016.

(UPDATE: Shockingly, the polling company has admitted that it replaced Johnson's name in questioning with that of his Libertarian predecessor in the race, Aubrey Dunn. So this poll is essentially garbage.)

The poll had more respondents (1,202) and thus a lower margin of error (+/- 2.8 percent) than any survey taken of the New Mexico Senate race this year. It also comes days after another unhappy poll for Johnson—16 percent, compared to 48-32 for the frontrunners, from Emerson College, which is the same pollster that had Johnson in second place two months ago.

The candidates' average in the five independent polls taken since Johnson jumped into the race 10 weeks ago now stands at 46 percent for Heinrich, 27 percent for Rich, and 17 percent for Johnson. FiveThirtyEight currently forecasts the race as 51.1-33.0-15.9, respectively.

Reason on Gary Johnson here.