Tourism

Trump's Immigration Policies Are Causing a 'Trump Slump' in U.S. Tourism

The businessman turned president's hysterical fear of terrorists is bad for business.

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This plane is bound for glory
Paul Hennessy/Polaris/Newscom

President Donald Trump has always claimed his business acumen would make him the greatest job creator in American history, but his immigration policies—including his controversial travel ban of visitors from seven Muslim-majority countries—are already negatively affecting U.S. business interests.

The travel app Hopper reported a 17 percent drop in searches for flights to the U.S. from 122 countries in the week after the travel ban was put into effect compared to the weeks prior, according to The New York Times, which also notes several other travel search websites and agencies reporting similarly stark drops in interest in travel to the U.S. However, the Chicago Tribune notes that searches for travel to the U.S. from Russia have jumped 88 percent in the past month.

According to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis, tourism-related spending in the U.S. was over $1.7 billion trillion in 2016, and the loosely-defined tourism industry accounted for over 7.7 million. To be clear, much of that tourism spending comes from Americans traveling domestically, but the drop in foreign travel searches—already being referred to as the "Trump Slump" by Travel Weekly, will not only affect tourism to the tune of billions of dollars in lost revenue, but is also be an impediment to U.S. and international businesses. The Global Business Assocation reported a $185 million loss for business travel bookings in just the first week after Trump's travel ban was announced.

Trump talked his way into the White House by promising not only unprecedented economic growth but impenetrable security at our borders and airports. Judging by this admittedly small sample size of data, his goals may very well be jeopardized by the overbroad nature of his policies.

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  1. You mean there are unforeseen consequences to government restrictions? If only someone had brought this up before.

  2. The impact on the tourism industry in the U.S. of Trump banning immigrants from those seven countries is interesting.

    Tell me, what’s been the impact on the tourism industry in France, Germany, and Sweden from letting all those asylum seekers in from those seven countries?

    1. Here’s a stat:

      “France’s tourist sector alone has lost an estimated 270 million euros ($299 million) since late 2015, according to recent data.”

      —-CNBC

      http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/05…..cliff.html

      1. Yeah, but think of all the money the refugees are spending!

        1. we should break some windows.

          1. Paul Krugman should be inviting Milo to speak at his office, and when antifa show up he’ll be doing the local economy a huge favor.

            All that economic activity, just a phone call away! What are we waiting for?

        2. And there’s the positive impact on housing prices. I’m sure there are plenty of wealthy progressives who would happily pay a premium to live next door to some refugees.

          1. Yeah, but in Europe they cram them all into suburban ghettos where the wealthy elite would never even visit.

      2. Is that losses, or lower revenue compared to some other year?

    2. The impact on tourism industry has nothing to do with those 7 countries. The impact is caused by vicious portrayal of all outsiders as evil by Mr. Trumf along with some serious xenophpbic attitude of immigration authorities who already treat tourists as shit. This impact was totally avoidable if Trump had made clear rules that stopped new immigration for these countries while letting the valid GC and visa holders enter the country.

      1. The impact is caused by vicious portrayal of all outsiders as evil by Mr. Trumf

        Read too many newspapers? They might have fried your brain with alternative facts.

        1. Yeah, that assessment does not comport with the (little, because I don’t bask in politicians’ words) things I’ve actually heard him say about “outsiders”.

          Now, as a measure of how he’s portrayed, yes.

          The mass media are proving Reynolds right – “Democrat operatives with bylines”.

      2. “…This impact was totally avoidable if Trump had made clear rules that stopped new immigration for these countries while letting the valid GC and visa holders enter the country.”

        You’ll forgive me if I find your predictions unlikely in the extreme.

        1. Correct!

          President Trump is simply doing what he promised for almost 2 years and now he is showing he means business. Your valid GC point is right on……STAY TUNED as that will be addressed this week then we will see how people tried to SHIT on him again to no avail…….I for one can’t wait.

  3. “his goals may very well be jeopardized by the overbroad nature of his policies.”

    We’re referring to the 90 day restriction on 7 Muslim nations as being “overbroad”? Might be the nature of something other than the policy.

    1. Not exempting green card holders and people who have already had visas approved was a bit overbroad, I’d say.

      1. That’s might be fair. I thought the point was to catch fake ones out there though.

  4. That should be $1.7T tourism in 2016, which makes quite a difference in how important this story is.

    1. And I’m guessing that this was supposed to have the word “jobs” at the end of it:

      the loosely-defined tourism industry accounted for over 7.7 million.

      1. Who knows? The intern proofreading pool must be running dry.

      2. 7.7 million bed bug infestations?

      3. 7.7M unplanned pregnancies?

      4. 7.7M proofreading errors?

        1. “My album, My Album Is Dropping, is dropping.”

    2. That whole paragraph is seizure inducing.

    3. The whole number is an enormous crock of shite, because it includes hotel and flight expenditures.
      Without breaking out how much of that is business travel, the number is meaningless. It’s even more meaningless without a comparison of domestic tourism, which Americans tend to do quite a bit of.

  5. How many people went to Germany this year for New Year’s, and how many people went to Germany for New Year’s the year before?

    1. From what I’ve read, they’ve been hit pretty hard overall, but it’s hard to quantify how much is due to refugees vs. terrorist attacks.

  6. Hopper? That shady as website has no credibility in my opinion.

  7. Correction: Ass.

  8. everyone knows the best time to go to the US is February. Those great mud colors of new england, The dead grass of the front range. Seattle? Gah, people love 30 degree rain.

    1. More like 40 degree snow. This winter has been weird in the Seattle area.

      1. In eastern Virginia it’s been 70-80 degrees all February, aside from a few random days where it drops into the 30s with no warning.

        1. Outside Philadelphia, I’m dealing with the same warmth. Lousy solar maximum and La Ni?a are teaming up to ruin the winter!

          (I grew out my beard over the past year and was seriously hoping for some “Chewy on Hoth” snow face…)

      2. Ah, i was going off memory. That sounds like a Georgia winter as well. 30-40. Sleet and rain. Much colder feeling than if it just snowed.

    2. It’s the best time to see the Southwest, though.

      (Seriously.

      And Germans and French seem to love it; I always see lots of them at the Grand Canyon.)

  9. “his goals may very well be jeopardized by the overbroad nature of his policies.”

    Policies that were echoed by Clinton onwards.

    Go figure.

    1. 7.7 million is nothing to sneeze at, because figures.

  10. The travel app Hopper reported a 17 percent drop in searches for flights to the U.S. from 122 countries in the week after the travel ban was put into effect compared to the weeks prior, according to The New York Times, which also notes several other travel search websites and agencies reporting similarly stark drops in interest in travel to the U.S.

    Unless you know the same week-to-week/month-to-month changes in “Travel searches” from multiple prior years, this means absolutely nothing.

    You might as well be talking about changes in the weather and claiming its significant of “Trump”

    1. This is nothing like that dead grandma article, not one bit.

      1. That was honest reporting of something that turned out to be a lie.

        This is brain-dead innumeracy that pretends “some volatility in a given #” is entirely due to presidential jawboning…

        …. rather than reflecting perfectly normal standard deviation & volatility that exists in that same data.

        The author has no idea what those numbers are significant of…. either because he’s too stupid to ask the data source for context, or he’s being intentionally deceptive by purposely avoiding it. Take your pick.

        1. Confirmation bias of a pre established narrative.

          1. Sort of like trump taking credit for the dow.

            1. That one at least has some connection, given the comments by a large numbers of companies on their expectation of a changed tax/regulatory environment, which impacts their forecasting and thus how most managed investment is done.

          2. ENB did a good job debunking that sex trafficking article. Maybe she can turn her attention to this next.

          3. There could very well BE a “Trump effect” that is actually negatively affecting business travel/tourism

            The problem here is that the things cited don’t even remotely come close to demonstrating it.

            The data cited (“searches”) is at best a weak-proxy for actual travel.

            And data on actual month-to-month “arrivals” are readily available and transparent.

            And that department actually provides forecasts of expected Tourism

            From that report =

            TheU.S.Department of Commerce (DOC) projects international travel to the United States will continue experiencing growth through 2021, based on the…. NTTO 2016 Fall Travel Forecast.

            Visitor volume in 2016 is expected to end the year down 0.9 percent compared to the 2015 record 77.5 million visitors who stayed one or more nights in the United States. If the NTTO forecast is realized, this would be the first decline in total arrivals to the United States since 2009. 2017 should reverse this decline and produce a 2.4 percent increase and a new volume record of 78.6 million visitors.

            Do you think reporting on a story like this would merit phoning those folks up and asking if they’re revising their forecasts based on “Trump policy”?. Nah!… just repeat the NYT spin. Why not? *they’re trustworthy*

            1. So maybe down 1%

              We should still blame his trumpness.

              1. So maybe down 1%

                According to the number monkeys @ the DoC, they think 2017 tourism-growth is going improve dramatically vs. 2016 (2.4% vs. -0.9%)

                I think if you wanted to substantiate a claim that “Trump policy” is expected to have a real and substantial negative effect on Tourism, all you’d need to do is phone up that office and ask them if they think those numbers might be revised downward based on expected effects from this year’s ‘travel bans’

                It doesn’t even require any particular numeracy on the part of the journalist. Just get the people who do this stuff for a living to feed you a narrative-validating quote.

                At the least, even if they stonewall you, you can still chase them down when they release Q1 2017 numbers, and ask if these affect their 2016 forecast. etc.

                iow, “actually do some journalism”…. actually care about whether the story you’re trying to pitch has any legitimate basis to it.

                Or, alternatively = echo narrative-pumping hacks, and assume your readers are stupid.

                1. That sort of activity, sir, would undermine our vital supplies of comment threat mockery, and might lead to people actually subscribing to Reason again.

                  Will no one think of the children?!

    2. You said better than what i said below.

    3. Yeah, good point. It’s like people throwing out numbers of assaults on [whatever class of people] since the election without any baseline or comparison.

      1. “Retail sales in Q4 2016 rose dramatically compared to Q3, clearly signaling positive sentiment in the wake of the Trump election….

        …… and not, you know…….. “Christmas””

        1. Trump’s election meant that everyone was saying “Merry Christmas” again and thus spending more?

    4. You might as well be talking about changes in the weather and claiming its significant of “Trump”

      Well, we all know Trump wants to turn climate change up to 11 and why aren’t you shitting your pants?

    5. You might as well be talking about changes in the weather and claiming its significant of “Trump”

      But he did block the sun with the moon! He promised he would bring it back if people voted for him and he did!

    6. Hmmm… I think you’re pants-shitting. If a reduction in the number came from one source and you didn’t know the inherent variability of the data coming from that source, I’d agree. But since multiple sources are reporting the same reduction and there are numerous anecdotal reports of British, French, and German tourists cancelling trips to the United States, I wouldn’t be surprised if the measured effect even across this limited time scale was telling us something.

  11. It could also be people who are pissed the Patriots won the Super Bowl, or people not feeling like traveling, or it could be negative press about how the US is now a hotbed of Nazis and transgender people now have to wear diapers because we won’t let them use the bathrooms anymore.

    1. Uprisings centered on major airports is always a selling point.

      1. Blocked freeways, riots on college campuses, Nazis roaming free, black people being shot by cops, all the white people are racists, women being raped in epidemic proportions, roving gangs of heroine and meth addicts, transgender people having to shit themselves, the national guard rounding up foreigners; if that was the news I was hearing coming out of another country I’d have second thoughts about going there.

        1. You know who else let Nazis roam free?

          1. The State of Illinois?

          2. The State of Illinois?

          3. I hate Illinois Squirrels…

          4. The ACLU, God bless ’em.

            And the French Army!

            1. And the French Army!

              Bwahahahaha!

              That will never ever get old!

  12. Whitey better pay up.

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/02…..rivileged/

    “We must continue to voice our opinion, especially in this racist, misogynistic environment post-Trump. They must understand that their economic success was only made possible by the blood and sweat of minorities,”

    Yea, it’s not like the same people that elected the first (half) black president twice also elected the first orange president.

    The idea that white people should be punished for the color of their skin is not new. A black woman launched a website where minorities could ask for money from white people as a form of reparations.

    I, for one, don’t have anything to pay reparations for because I have never oppressed anyone. No one alive today in the US owns(ed) slave. So these people can fuck right off. They may want to tread lightly on this ‘sins-of-father’ crap.

    1. I wonder how many African Americans have ancestors who were involved in the slave trade in Africa at some point?

      1. were involved and may still be involved in the African slave trade

    2. It doesn’t bother me so much that people voice opinions like this. What bothers me is the praise and the downright lack of condemnation that would certainly be raining down if the races were reversed.

    3. They may want to tread lightly on this ‘sins-of-father’ crap.

      Being a citizen of the US is winning the lottery of life. Particularly when compared with being a citizen of sub Saharan Africa.

  13. The bad people, I mean really bad people, the worst of the bad people are not coming here anymore thanks to President Dofald Trumf. Jobs lost ? They can always apply to Greatest President of America Jobs Scheme for the Greatest Wall Built. They will all gets jobs, free make America great again cap and a shovel.

  14. 1.7 billion……you mean trillion? And what 7.7 million

    Also what did it do in the weeks after? If it went back up then i am not sure it isnt noise.

    What where the weeks prior to separated by week and not full average

    Is this the same guy who did the dead grandma thing

    1. You are right, the numbers are useless.

      Still, I would guess that there is some effect. A lot of people buy into the hysteria about Trump. And a lot of people probably rationally foresee more rules coming which might make it more difficult or less pleasant to visit the US.

  15. Living near ski country, I have yet to see any massive drop off in tourism.

    1. But in a month or two it will, and it will be all Trump’s fault.

      1. Why blind them with science when you can blind them with bull shit?

        Reason’s new motto?

        1. Reason’s new Motto: Trump is the Devil, because Open Borders Uber Alles!

      2. For real. Plus, if current warming trends continue, i predict that it will be 400 degrees by this time next year.

    2. “Living near ski country, I have yet to see any massive drop off in tourism.”

      Yeah, well, you just wait:
      “Opinion: Ding-Dong! The Witch of the Snow Drought Is Dead. NOT SO FAST.”
      […]
      “Does this affect our sport? C’mon. This year’s SIA (SnowSports Industries America) show was the smallest in living memory. Ski seasons are growing shorter by the year. Skiing numbers have been flat for more than a decade. And 70-year-old Skiing magazine is dead.”
      http://blog.sfgate.com/ski/201…..t-so-fast/

      This just in! Trump kills magazines!

      1. BTW, Squaw is predicting skiing in July.

        1. I went skiing every month in 2015. Sure, August and September involved a glacier (st. Mary’s isnt really a glacier), but October had a bunch of places open, and they stayed open till june/july.

  16. Fun fact: I just successfully popped a pimple in the most hard-to-reach spot on my back that was roughly the size and shape of Nancy Pelosi’s left areola.

    1. Is this your way of asking for a ride to the emergency room?

      1. If I contract sepsis and die you will no longer have the privilege of reading my fun facts.

    2. Is.. there a difference between the left one and the right one… nevermind, I don’t want to know. Nor do I wish to know the circumstances that imparted you with this horrible knowledge.

      1. Her left areola is your standard, everyday lady part.

        Her right areola bears a close resemblance to Satan’s anus.

    3. I feel wiser for having read this.

    4. This is why the Yokultarians had to leave; to keep from drowning out this kind of really important and inciteful commentary.

  17. I think the anti-Trump opposition’s sheer hysteria and hyperbolic rhetoric has just as large of a part to play in this as Trump’s stupid rhetoric.

    1. Who are you, who is so wise in the ways of science?

  18. Oh goody another Trump article, that never gets old….

  19. well with all the riots by the left who can blame them for not wanting to come here, hell I don’t even want to venture into the big cities of California anymore.

  20. Straining to find some Trump-bashing fodder in a handful of tiny, early, isolated statistics.

  21. Anybody not pastie white would be crazy to come to the US at the moment.

    1. *eyeroll*

      I am glad we have not run out of that precious internet resource, “ludicrous hyperbole.”

  22. RE: Trump’s Immigration Policies Are Causing a ‘Trump Slump’ in U.S. Tourism
    The businessman turned president’s hysterical fear of terrorists is bad for business.

    Yeah, its bad for business.
    But its good for our beloved police state, and which is more important?
    Making money or being a slave?
    I think we all know the answer to that.

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