Donald Trump

You Do Realize that if You Keep All the Jobs in America, the Mexicans Will Return?

Has Donald Trump really thought through the implications of not letting U.S. companies outsource low-level work?


God bless President-elect Donald Trump, who hath already saved hundreds, perhaps thousands, of jobs from running to Mexico like desperadoes fleeing south from the scene of a crime!

That's swell, but even he can't repeal the law of uninteded consequences, can he? And the fact of the matter is that if you build jobs here explictly at the cost of jobs in Mexico, you will start to see Mexicans migrating northwards for…jobs. That's the way immigration works for most people. They go to where the jobs are and they stop coming when the jobs dry up. In an open society, you can either have a whiz-bang economy or little-to-no immigration. Even Donald Trump can't have it all.

In recent weeks, Trump has taken credit for keeping 700 or 800 jobs at an Indiana plant for Carrier and some more at a ball-bearing factory in the Hoosier State (needless to say, taxpayer-supplied sweeteners were part of the deals). After railing against GM and threatening punitive tariffs on autos made in Mexico and sold here, the car maker changed plans to placate Trump. Ford Motors proactively announced it was keeping a plant open in Michigan, earning this badge of honor:

This is just the beginning, vows Trump, much more to follow! Who knows where next he'll strike, but if his twitterhea is any indication, it'll be against another car maker:

Actions have consequences, though, and not always the ones people expect or want. Consider what is likely to happen if U.S. investment in Mexico slows down or stops completely. America is Mexico's biggest trading partner and we get a bunch of stuff from them—trade isn't a one-way street, which is one of the great things about it. From the New York Post:

Ford's announcement sent shockwaves across Mexico, which has become tightly meshed with the U.S. economy since the advent of the North American Free Trade Agreement, sending 80 percent of its $532 billion in exports across the border in 2015. The U.S. government says $100 billion of that was in vehicles and parts, making Mexico the biggest exporter of automotive products to the United States. Mexico's auto plants now account for 20 percent of all light vehicles built in North America, industry figures say….

Four clustered states in central Mexico — San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Aguascalientes and Guanajuato — have seven auto assembly plants that are operating or will be within the next two years. Around them are nearly 800 auto parts suppliers, Puente said.

In San Luis Potosi alone, between 50,000 and 60,000 jobs depend on the auto industry. An average worker in Mexico costs automakers $8 an hour, including wages and benefits, compared to the $60 an hour that Ford said it was spending on an auto worker in the U.S. at the end of 2015.

In Villa de Reyes' town square, residents said the younger generation would be hurt most by the cancellation.

Retiree Ignacio Segura Rocha said fewer people from town are migrating to the U.S. now because the crossing has gotten harder than when he went in 1977 and 1978. He said the auto industry offers good alternatives for kids growing up on the region's isolated ranches.

"They were already dreaming of going there (to Ford), and at the last minute there's nothing," he said.

Read more here.

Pew Research

Two things to consider: How much more expensive will cars (and other products) become once Trump has made all the calls to CEOs he's threatened to make? If labor costs jack up from $8 an hour to $60, that's going to cause sticker shock, isn't it? More important, perhaps, Trump needs to ask: Where are those Mexicans going to go when their $8-an-hour job doesn't materialize? An informed guess is that they're going to head north, to the land of opportunity. If history shows us anything, it's that ultimately governments don't control borders as much as motivated individuals do. Throughout the boom in immigration that started once America's economy kicked into high gear in the 1980s, immigrants from Mexico and other parts of Latin America migrated for work and opportunities that were better than what they had in their home countries (in this, they were exactly like earlier waves of immigrants from Europe). Concerns about legal status were completely overwhelmed by opportunities (when you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose). If you're betting on a wall—now to be paid for by the U.S. taxpayer rather than Mexico—to stop hungry people trying better their place in the world, good luck with that. The only reliable way to stanch immigration flows is to have a shit economy so that no one wants to come, or for the sender countries to flourish so people don't want to leave. That's the reason why we reached peak Mexican back in 2008 and 2009, when the recession kicked in here. Since then, Mexico has been a relatively better deal for Mexicans.

"If jobs are available, people come," said Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington. "If jobs are not available, people don't come."

In any case, Donald Trump and his anti-immigration allies are fighting the last war, it seems. Chinese and South Asians are now the biggest sources of newcomers to the United States. Good luck building a wall against them, too, in a way that doesn't completely stultify the American economy with workplace rules and your-papers-please laws that will place the Land of the Free under some form of perpetual lockdown.

If the only way you can "Make America Great Again" is by by forcing poor countries to create large reserve armies of the unemployed, don't be surprised when the world's wretched refuse starts washing up on shore, yearning to be paid under the table. That doesn't bother me, and it shouldn't bother libertarians or anyone else, really. The best immigration policy is one that works with human nature by making it easier for anyone who wants to live and work peacefully in the United States to do so legally. Under existing law, legal and illegal immigrants are already barred from virtually all transfer programs so if you're worried about the welfare state, then reduce that. A growing population will add to economic growth, innovation, and prosperity. Walling ourselves off literally and figuratively will only create far more problems than it could ever hope to solve.

NEXT: Anti-Trumpers Hyperventilate Over Nothingburger Story About U.S. Ambassadors Leaving After Inauguration Day

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  1. 30% of Mexico already lives in the United States. Whats a few hundred more?

    1. I also would like to challenge the contention that border jumpers would get these sort of jobs. It is a rare case that they come over with the skillset needed to do them and end up doing menial work or just sucking at the government’s teat.

  2. The country currently has the lowest labor force participation rate it has had since the 1970s. There is an enormous amount of slack in the labor market. So, no Nick, they won’t necessarily be coming back.

    What a stupid article.

    1. Why is there slack in the labor market?

      1. Slackers! *(shakes fist)

      2. Over-regulation and government policy intended to choose what industries and entities get to win or lose have curtailed job growth?

      3. Why is there slack in the labor market?

        Long-term unemployment and sluggish job growth beyond the most marginal (entry-level, part-time) has led to a lot of abandonment of the labor force.

        1. Yep. It looks like full employment because so many people quit looking. I know of several people working their butts off at multiple jobs because they can’t get one decent full time job with benefits.

        2. When the welfare state provide largess equal-to or greater-than unskilled labor jobs, then people naturally bail out of the labor pool.
          Why work when you can collect a check from the government for a ‘back injury’, live in subsidized house, buy food with an EBT, and work a bit under the table or engage in petty crime for extra cash when needed?

          Only suckers work. you know…the 47% thing Romney was widely mocked for.

          1. Most aid programs have work requirements. The idea that people can easily just stay home jerking off is false – at least from a statistical perspective. I’m sure you’ll be able to find some example of someone, somewhere, who has managed to game the system, but the idea that it is easy or common for that to happen is very wrong.

            Some programs, like TANF, have life-long 5 year limits – it’s simply not possible for someone to retain these benefits over the long haul.

            1. Appalachia seems to have figured it out. This is just one of a million articles on the subject


              It’s apparently all about social security disability.


              “The draw,” the monthly welfare checks that supplement dependents’ earnings in the black-market Pepsi economy, is poison. It’s a potent enough poison to catch the attention even of such people as those who write for the New York Times. Nicholas Kristof, visiting nearby Jackson, Ky., last year, was shocked by parents who were taking their children out of literacy classes because the possibility of improved academic performance would threaten $700-a-month Social Security disability benefits, which increasingly are paid out for nebulous afflictions such as loosely defined learning disorders. “This is painful for a liberal to admit,” Kristof wrote, “but conservatives have a point when they suggest that America’s safety net can sometimes entangle people in a soul-crushing dependency.”

            2. The idea that people can easily just stay home jerking off is false…

              Or they can get a government job and spend all day jerking off at work.

          2. this…people can get 30-40K a year on welfare from all the available sources….why work for 20 grand a year when you can make 30-40K on welfare and not work?

        3. If you contract to provide rides with Uber, you are unemployed. Uber clearly states they are not an employer. That means no job. No job means unemployed.

          That applies to all the “sharing economy”.

          1. NO, that means you are a independent contractor

    2. From 1980 to 2009, the rate averaged about 66.5%. Its currently just short of 62.7%, for a drop of 3.8%. I’m not entirely sure what that’s a percentage of, but if its population less retirement age in the link, its about 200mm people, for slack of over 7.5mm people.…..ation-rate

      If labor costs jack up from $8 an hour to $60, that’s going to cause sticker shock, isn’t it?

      Likely, especially if the idiots in the car companies bring jobs to unionized plants – seriously, Ford, what were you thinking? However, maquiladora productivity is typically significantly lower that US productivity, so those higher labor costs are buying more productivity, which lowers the unit cost.

      1. seriously, Ford, what were you thinking?

        Personally, I give Ford the benefit of the doubt. Even if I’m wrong: Silly RCD! What part of bailout do you not understand?

      2. Yes, that’s working age people, not counting people who are retired.

      3. Right, the key to rapid growth is more low wage workers and elimination of high wage workers so consumers have only $15-20,000 a year to spend. The less consumers spend, the higher the revenue at all the businesses, time higher the profits, and the more wealth created.

        That is the key feature of conservative economics. High profits by slashing wages causing less and less consumer spending.

        But government bailouts of “lending” money to consumers who will never repay it so they can buy lots and lots of stuff keep getting supported by conservatives. It’s that or welfare, like food stamps and housing vouchers.

    3. How much of that slack is people willing and able to do the work that needs to be done?

      You can’t take a genderfluid womyn’s studies graduate fresh out of college and stick thon into a welder’s job.

  3. Trumpkins cheered when he said “We’re going to build the wall” but they’ll be crying after the price of fries doubled because all the illegals are living in concentration camps (until the wall is built otherwise they’ll come right back, jackass). Trumpkins cheered when he said “Bomb the hell out of them” but they’ll be crying when the price of gas doubles due to supply interruptions. Trumpkins cheered when he said, “Repeal Obamacare” but they’ll be crying when they can’t afford to take their children to the doctor.

    1. so the only solution is to elect Hillary?…nah fuck that shit…

    2. Trumpkins cheered when he said, “Repeal Obamacare” but they’ll be crying when they can’t afford to take their children to the doctor.

      So you’re saying that Obamacare made it cheaper for people to see their doctor? That’s not an enormous typo?

      1. For a lot of people, yes. But it’s their faults for having pre-existing conditions, so ….

        1. but for most people who actually work, they pay a lot more. A whole lot.

          1. Yeah every time i go to the doctor it costs me around 200+ dollars now. And before it was only a $20 for office visits. Plus i think my yearly deductable is now $5000 so i never hit it so I pay for everything now. Next time I go to the doctor i will ask if there is a cash discount,and see if no insurance is cheaper.

  4. If history shows us anything, it’s that ultimately governments don’t control borders as much as economic flows do.

    That’s a bit of an overgeneralization. Perhaps, governments of companies with long land borders don’t control immigration unless they are willing to be extremely repressive?

    Even that has exceptions – I’m thinking Switzerland.

    1. is that near Swaziland?

    2. Land border with Canada is far longer than that with Mexico, and we don’t have any immigration problem there.

      1. That’s because Canada has more freedom than the US. united-states-drops-in-overall-freedom-ranking/
        link split due to 50 character limit

    3. “If history shows us anything, it’s that ultimately governments don’t control borders as much as economic flows do.”

      Yeh…that statement seems a bit of a stretch. I don’t think history shows what Nick thinks it shows. Haven’t many, if not most, migrant waves ended in war or genocide?

  5. They go to where the jobs are and they stop coming when the jobs dry up.

    Well, they’re going to go to where the wall is and they’re going to stop coming when they can’t get over the wall. That’s my bet.

    1. Eventually, though, they’ll pile up at the wall deep enough that some will start to be able to get over the top.

      Solution: another wall on top of the wall. Make Guatemala pay for it.

      1. how about just shoot the invaders?

    2. How perfectly naive, Fist. We can’t even stop drug mules from building tunnels under our border, do you really believe a wall is going to be a major obstruction? If coyotes can’t smuggle illegals over the border because of a wall, there is plenty of shoreline and airspace. As long as illegals are willing to pay coyotes, coyotes are going to find a way to get them in. Black markets will not be stopped.

      1. I hear Israel has ground sounding equipment that detects tunnels before they are completed. walls and tunnel identifiers work when utilized & manned not but some drone that only alerts authorities but people on the scene. Its never 100% but its better than what is going on now.

        1. Israel has a much smaller “area of interest” then we do.

  6. ‘Saving’ jobs is just a euphemism for giving companies tax breaks and blowing out the national debt. Meaning, Millenials and Gen-Y are subsidizing the jobs of their frumpled uncle Trumpkins. Why they don’t revolt against this is beyond me. Maybe they need to stop playing video games for a few minutes and pay attention.

    1. Blowing out the national debt, a little too late for that in case you haven’t checked. It will be hard to top The last decade

      1. Hard to top the Reagan years, you mean.

        But they’re going to try. Dismantle Obamacare — even if we add trillions to the debt!

        1. The failed Obozo administration has racked up more debt than all the previous presidents combined, my low information, progressive puppet.

  7. Guess libertarianism is doomed, then. Odd to see Reason cheer that on.

    1. Freedom of movement and labor are things that libertarians like

      1. Bah. Everyone knows all those lazy, dirty Mexicans are just coming in so they can vote for Democrats and cuck helpless white guys.

      2. If you’re not a straight up “no borders at all anarchist”, don’t you have to concede that as long as governments exist they will have to clearly define their borders and regularly enforce some kind of control?

        Mind you, I don’t think the government should be able to tell me who I can and can’t bring on to my property, but what do you do about the commons?

        1. “If you’re not a straight up “no borders at all anarchist”, don’t you have to concede that as long as governments exist they will have to clearly define their borders and regularly enforce some kind of control?”
          Nah. There’s plenty of historical and modern examples of countries that don’t meet your criteria.

      3. sure. eliminate the welfare state and open the borders wide.

  8. The best immigration policy is one that works with human nature by making it easier for anyone who wants to live and work peacefully in the United States to do so legally.

    We don’t have this for our own citizens, so there’s going to be a bit of natural removing the beam from our own eye going on here. Of course America is a control freak asshole to immigrants. That’s how we treat the native-born too.

    Under existing law, they are already barred from virtually all transfer programs so if you’re worried about the welfare state, then reduce that.

    Goddammit Nick. You just couldn’t help yourself, could you.

    1. Under existing law, they are already barred from virtually all transfer programs

      Yet somehow manage to consume more welfare than their native-born counterparts. Funny, that.

      1. Stop that! Don’t harsh his mellow.

      2. This is utterly false. Immigrants in general use less welfare programs, pay more taxes, and start businesses at a higher rate than native-borns.

        1. are you talking about legal or illegal here because there is a difference

          1. source

            According to this article, immigrants of any status are less likely to commit crimes.

            immigrants and taxes

            1. Who said anything about crimes? Aside from the crime of illegal immigration.

              the social security payments are a better argument. and it is obvious that they pay sales tax and property tax.

              This article seems to do a good job trying to cover “all” government expenditures and not just transfer payments.


              The obvious point is that the children of illegal immigrants go to public schools which cost far more than an illegal immigrant pays in taxes.

            2. According to this article, illegal aliens commit murder at a much higher rate than US citizens.

            3. yet they broke the law to come here.

    2. If you like Mexicans so much, why don’t you just go marry one, Hamster?

        1. America gets cucked again.

      1. If all the immigrants looked like this, there would be a hell of a lot less complaining.

    3. Illegals are getting welfare at hospitals, state welfare, and free schooling for their children. And if they pay into Social Security, they also get that (e.g. using a fake or stolen Social Security number).

      I’d be ok with open borders provided we didn’t have any welfare, and we keep out Muslims who think Muslims should rule over all others, which is just incompatible with the Constitution. For about the first 100 years, the US had open borders.

      1. Can we keep out any who thinks should rule over all others? Can we also eject them?

        1. Blarg, forgot this works with html. Attempt 2!

          Can we keep out any [Religious Believer] who thinks [Religious Believers] should rule over all others? Can we also eject them?

  9. After they get tired of losing to Mr. Trump, we’ll be calling them Mexicants.

    1. If that’s a dig at Lyin’ Ted the Canuck, I’ll have you know Texas will gladly trade him for a US or Canadian soldier captured by some other antiabortion prohibitionist religious fanatics.

  10. so if you’re worried about the welfare state, then reduce that.

    Dammit I have been saying that for years. Libertarian I may be, I don’t buy into the unfettered immigration Reason is so fond of. Reduce (eliminate) the welfare state where more and more of my dollars don’t go to pay for those who can’t, and I’m 100% for it. Cheap labor is great, and no welfare means those who undertake to come here will be working, as they have no choice. Cutting off the fat, they call it.

    But it doesn’t work that way does it? Government in general and welfare specifically only goes in one direction. Too many highly overpaid desk jobs for undegreed bean counters doling out my money to deadbeats. The welfare state itself, is a form of welfare. What will these unskilled uneducated pencil pushers do if not work in fabricated, unaccountable government jobs from which they cannot be fired and which provide generous pensions and sometimes health benefits for life?

    1. I think that the elimination of the massive existing welfare state, which both promotes illegal immigration and stifles economic growth and job creation, would be great for both job creation and stopping illegal immigration.

    2. some Reasonoids love to ignore the malicious truth that open borders cannot co-exist with the welfare state.

  11. Oh, Nick. and the magazine was having such a good run.

  12. “Toyota Motor said will build a new plant in Baja, Mexico, to build Corolla cars for U.S. NO WAY! Build plant in U.S. or pay big border tax.”

    The Japanese have no reason to care about Americans having jobs, except in that it allows them to purchase Japanese goods.

    Fuck the statism, if you want the Japanese to build their factory in the US, make sure the US is better at factories then Mexico. If Mexico is beating America on the Free Market of Labor, the solution isn’t to browbeat and bully the customer, it’s to be better at selling your product.

    Make America Great again, Donald, don’t just try to force people to buy shitty, sub-par, and overpriced American labor and TELL them it’s great.

    1. “shitty, sub-par, and overpriced American labor ”

      US labor is overpriced because of regulation and unions. It is shitty and sub-par because corporations have to skimp on labor incentives to maintain competitiveness because of the large cost-of-business for the regulations and union requirements.

      Break the unions and eliminate pointless regulation and most of the issues go away. If you can’t do that, then tariffs/border tax/etc is the only mechanism to keep manufacturing in the US instead of Baja, Mexico.

      I would love to see Trump eliminate 90% of the regulations choking US manufacturing and hobble the utterly corrupt labor unions. But we’ll see how much political capital he has to make those sorts of yuuge changes.

    2. Depends on the car. We seem to do pretty well at building “German” cars.

    3. why is China allowed to put a 25% tax on American made cars?

  13. Evidently someone hasn’t heard about The Wall. It’s going to be huuuuuuuuge.

    1. Nah, it’s just another brick

  14. I think its incredibly cute that Nick thinks Mexican immigrants come to the US for the jobs.

    something, something, welfare state

    1. Would you please, you know, read something other than Trumpian propaganda?

      Notice how the flow of immigrants from Mexico declined during the recession?

  15. You’ll never solve a religious objection with science, Liz.

    1. Oops, wrong article. Stupid tabs. They tell me not to keep hundreds of tabs open and I’ll tell them to just shut up and make my computer run right.

      1. Eh, it’s an unusual metaphor, but I think it fits.

  16. My 2007 Subaru Legacy was built in Indiana and has over 100K and have had no major problems with it so far. My dad had a 1995 Corolla that he gave to me and put over 170K on it and was able to sell it on Craigslist for $1000 (I asked 900 but the guy gave me an extra 100 because I had the title). It was built in Canada and also had very few problems. Both cars, I suspect, had most of their engine parts made in Japan, even though they were assembled here. If Trump gets his way, these engine parts will also be taxed, adding further to the cost, and without foreign competition, quality will go down the toilet. It will be like the 1970s all over again, where shitty American cars will dominate the roads.

    1. foreign cars of the 70’s were shit as well. You couldn’t get a VW or a Toyota to last more than 40k but they got good milage so they weren’t subject to the smog equipment that killed american cars more than anything else until electronic/computer controls came around in the mid-80s

      1. The biggest problem with foreign cars pre-1990s that I remember was rust (I grew up in New England). They were mechanically simpler, so that might be why. American cars were better for rust protection, but mechanically still sucked through the 80s. My parents went through 2 sets of Plymouth Reliants in 6 years because the engines had to be rebuilt at about 50K. This was an improvement on 70s GM though, where the engines gave out around 30K.

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    1. The idjits misspelled blow…

  18. Possibly so, that is “the return of Mexicans”, however what are Americans supposed to do to pass the time, and earn a living?

  19. Look at the graph and see that the George Waffen Bush asset-forfeiture crash made These States an undesirable slum to move to. The problem is that the looter Kleptocracy has exported those same area-blighting policies to the rest of the world, prolly to short their markets and recoup the Theocracy-Troubled Asset-forfeiture-Ripoff Prohibitionist Program losses. Freedom compared to the bandana republics and commie kleptocracies was what made These States prosperous back when cartoons like that one weren’t oddly quaint. Exporting murderous looterism in no way helps “our” economy. It just creates refugees just as freedom attracts them. Prosperity is the result of freedom. Someone explain causality to Nick…

  20. FFS ,Using this logic, going from $60 hr to $8 hr in Mexico should save me money on my next car purchase, right?As the current labor price is already built into the price of the car(in the case of Ford leaving the US), will the price go down? No, so I might as well get it built by some fat overpaid underworked American rather than some fat overpaid underworked Mexican

  21. Of course there could always be heavy penalties for those hiring workers who are not legally eligible to work in the US.

    1. Nah. Folks worried about illegal immigration suddenly go deaf and blind when you bring up the folks employing them.

  22. How about if we put all those factories in Guatemala?

  23. Wait, America still makes things besides pills and cheeseburgers?

  24. Thanks, Nick. The Trumpsters who’ve taken over your comments needed the reality check.

    If you’re going to build a wall, then it hardly seems fair to complain about a Japanese automaker building a plant in Mexico, does it? So they can’t come here … but they can’t work in Mexico, either?

    Nick’s right. That’s about as anti-libertarian as you can get.

  25. “You Do Realize that if You Keep All the Jobs in America, the Mexicans Will Return?”

    Not if the laws are enforced against employers, so they can’t get them illegally. No job, no benefits, they can go home, starve, or commit crimes and get shot.

    I don’t see a downside.

    1. “I don’t see a downside.”
      Sure, but you based your view on an unrealistic premise.

      “Not if the laws are enforced against employers […]”
      That ain’t gonna happen, and if you don’t know it, you’re fooling yourself.

  26. people here in america create their own own opportunities. why don’t the people in Central America and Mexico do that in their own country? some is gov’t interference, but i think most of it is related to the society itself.

    1. Exactly!!!! Are we now supposed to become the (3rd) world entrepreneur in addition to being the world police (state)?
      We need to remove crony from capitalism, end the practice of state officials to create laws, shrink the state by at least 95%, and end legal robbery/taxation! Let the state request donations from us for the projects that we are willing to voluntarily finance! ‘But that would be anarchy!’ Exactly!

  27. “In an open society, you can either have a whiz-bang economy or little-to-no immigration.” What utter nonsense! This article is so flawed at so many levels as to be laughable. No serious consideration is given to facts of some little importance like, oh I don’t know, like the fact that birth rates in virtually every developed nation are declining, or that THAT small trend will have significant impact on the purchasing power embedded within each nation individually and the developed world collectively, or the fact that, at least in the U.S. at any rate, the majority of new business development, new product development and just plain innovation development is a direct consequence of robust immigration (since most new business risk here is done by newly arrived immigrants), or the fact that the vast majority of thinking Americans do NOT object to immigration (virtually all of us are their sons & daughters) but to ILLEGAL immigration, or the fact that any expected decline in America’s birth rates shall be supplanted by LEGAL immigration thus growing the purchasing power imbedded in the American economy. I believe unequivocally that we SHALL have a whiz-bang economy and robust legal immigration at the same time. Further, I believe that this nation is still an adolescent. It’s growth spurt hasn’t even started yet!

  28. You can’t just get rid of all the illegal workers and solve the problem. Yes it will be inflationary in and of itself, but the solution is to do away with that part of welfare that pays people to hang out in front of the local convenience store and do nothing and give people natural incentives to move where the work is. Paying people to not work while hiring illegals to do those jobs makes no sense at all and is as sure a sign of social decadence and decay as there ever wasl

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  30. Nevaeh. I agree that Richard`s storry is shocking… last wednesday I got a great BMW M3 from earning $5318 this-past/4 weeks and just a little over 10/k lass month. without a question it is the most comfortable job Ive ever had. I began this 10-months ago and pretty much straight away got me at least $83, p/h. see here now


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