Temperature Trends

2016 Could Edge Out 1998 as Hottest Year in Satellite Temperature Record

U.N. climate change meeting opens today in Marrakech, Morocco.



As the 22nd conference of the parties (COP-22) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change convenes today in Marrakech, Morocco, the folks at the University of Alabama in Huntsville report that 2016 might well be the warmest in the satellite record that started back in 1979. Every month climatologists John Christy and Roy Spencer update the temperature data from derived from NOAA satellites. For October, 2016 they report:

A La Niña Pacific Ocean cooling event strengthened slightly in October, with tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures cooling a bit, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. The cooling Pacific released heat into the atmosphere, likely causing a slight warming in the tropical troposphere. If the La Niña continues as forecast, cooling atmospheric temperatures will likely follow after a lag of a month or two.

If global average temperatures stay warm for another two months, that could push 2016 into position as the warmest calendar year in the satellite global temperature record. For the first ten months of the year, 2016 is a trifling amount (0.007 C) cooler than 1998, well within the margin of error. The two years could end in a statistical tie. Temperatures in both 1998 and 2016 were raised by an El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event.


Global Temperature Report: October 2016

Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.12 C per decade

October temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.41 C (about 0.74 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.

Northern Hemisphere: +0.42 C (about 0.76 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.

Southern Hemisphere: +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.

Tropics: +0.46 C (about 0.83 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for October.

Go here to see the monthly satellite temperature data since December, 1978.

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  1. And yet, the District of Columbia remains above water, dammit!

    1. Drain the swamp! Drain the swamp!

        1. It’s a swamp.

          Whenever someone argues we should protect ‘wetlands’ I want to lock them in a cage as mosquito food until they die by exanguination.

          1. I don’t have a problem with the mosquitoes. I wouldn’t mind, however, if the cage were bolted to a concrete slab and set 50 ft. uphill from the edge of the nearest wetland.

          2. Mosquitoes: Killing people since time immemorial.

            1. “Mosquitoes: Killing people since time immemorial.”

              Doing the watermellons’ work, I tell ya.

        2. Wetland: a type of private property where the owner is both the taxpayer, and a trespasser.

  2. So you’re telling me is hasn’t gotten any hotter for 18 years…

    1. And this big El Nino year could be roughly equivalent to the 1998 big El Nino year. Which somehow proves CAGW. Because reasons.

      1. Red squiggles on a graph don’t lie.

          1. It would be nice if the CO2 concentration graph had a line for current concentration like the temperature graph does.

          1. those are pants-wetting enough.

    2. That’s what I came to say. Completely buried the lead.

  3. All aboard the train!

  4. This story got me so HOT under the collar.

  5. If every year is the hottest year on record, then no year is.

    1. Umm…I am not sure that’s how it works.

      1. I’ve heard autistic guys have enormous wangs. Is that true?

        1. Yes. Unfortunately, they are also bent like pretzels.

    2. If every year is the hottest year on record, then no year is.

      +1 Album of the climate’s greatest hits.

  6. Gaia has a fever and the only thing that will cure it is . . .

    . . . more cowbell!

    1. The only cure for any problem, real or imaginary, is more government! And if that only makes things worse, we just need to government harder!

    2. Best comment I’ve read around here in ages.

    3. Gaia also put his/her pants on one leg at a time except she/he makes gold records.

  7. Didn’t one of Podesta’s emails to or from some consulting firm regarding global warming state that they were going to push the global warming agenda and ‘not let the data get in our way’?

    I dont beleive a goddamned word of it anymore.

    1. “Those emails were likely fake.”
      – DNC and fellow travelers

    2. It’s the politicization along with the apocalyptic aspects that have caused the problem, IMO.

      If scientists had said something along the lines of, “we may have a problem with some human activities contributing to adverse changes in the global climate. It may be necessary to make some changes to reduce those adverse effects but we don’t want to immediately assume that some kind of massive government intervention is necessary” a lot of people would have been open to the discussion.

      Instead, the whole thing has been infected with political powermongers who say, “we’re all doomed unless we take massive power over your life.”

      1. Instead, the whole thing has been infected with political powermongers who say, “we’re all doomed unless we take massive power over your life.”

        No matter what the problem is, it always has the same solution.

        1. Sadly, this is true.

        2. You just don’t appreciate their economic way of thinking – expending zero resources.

      2. “Instead, the whole thing has been infected with political powermongers who say, “we’re all doomed unless we take massive power over your life.”

        Yes, and if you disagree with the powermongers, you’re a denier and in favor of doing nothing!
        Jack and Tony repeat that lie regularly.

    3. Perhaps Hillary is ready to deploy USAF C-135s to spray sulfate aerosols in the upper atmosphere to show that she has brought temperatures down, along with employment and GDP.

      1. +1 Ho Chi Minh Trail

  8. So it hasn’t gotten any cooler over the last eight years? Another thing Obama has failed at.

    1. He would have caused massive volcanic eruptions if he could have. Hillary will get it done.

      1. TOP WOMEN!

  9. “As the 22nd conference of the parties (COP-22) to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change convenes today in Marrakech, Morocco…”

    I presume all attendees, including international media observers, will be arriving by bicycle, sailboat, or on foot; will be lodging in non-heated, non-air conditioned tents made from sustainable local materials; and that their communications, research and published results will be developed and delivered on devices also composed of sustainable local materials, such as sand and camel dung.

    1. They really should be having these conferences on the equator. The optics would be better if they were all sweating like sinners in AGW church, and also they wouldn’t seem to be so northern hemisphere-centric.

      1. On the Equinox – without AC or other modern conveniences.

      2. How about Guyana? With Kool-Aid served as refreshment.

        1. I’m Willie Brown and I never met this guy before in my life!

    2. Energy efficient video conferencing would leave a digital footprint that a person-to-person whisper in the ear would not.

  10. Eastern Europe hasn’t seen this much snow in early November since 1989, I believe.

    1. That’s only weather. Warm events count as climate.

  11. In political news, wealthy hedge fund manager, Tom Styer, is spending money like crazy here in California on campaign commercials promoting candidates for the State legislator who will do something about climate change regardless of their other concerns. According to the writers of his Wikipedia entry he is the anti-Koch. Since the Koch’s are sitting this election cycle out, I’m not sure what that means today.

    No specific point to that. Just some info on what’s going on in here in CA.

    1. Let me guess, Steyer has investments in “green” technology.

      1. “Let me guess, Steyer has investments in “green” technology.”

        He is filthy with crony “green” investments; almost as skilled in picking the taxpayer pocket as that slime bag Musk.
        And if the Kock’s were pitching gov’t-funded oil businesses, you can imagine the screams. Regarding Steyer: Crickets.

      2. Indeed he does, and yes you will rarely hear the name Steyer mentioned by anyone. Even most of your average people on the left have no clue who he is. If you ask them, the left is broke and only conservatives have money which is why we need it out of politics.

        You know…morons.

    2. His commercials point out the green technology has created 500,000! new jobs in CA. The other side of the balance sheet is not discussed.

      1. unemployment = a green job. If you are not working, you are likely driving less and not cooling/heating your house as much, resulting in lower emissions.

        1. and not eating so much, which certainly cuts down on certain emissions…

  12. That chart! Look at all those negative votes for Hillary, and all those positive votes for Trump.

  13. Is this supposed to strengthen the global-climate-change team (now there’s a name for a Dodge ball team) or the opposite? Confused, Rufus.

    1. (When they lose, they get to deal with a pissed-off manbearpig.)

  14. Okay, so President Placeholder didn’t exactly tell the proud tides ” Thus far shall you rise, and no further.” Or at least the tides didn’t listen.

    Fear not, for Queen Hillary shall carry on the good work of President Placeholder.

    Relinquish your internal combustion vehicles along with your newly illegal firearms at the nearest Ministry of Democracy precinct headquarters. You won’t be needing those where we’re going.

    1. What I find sad about the King Canute story was that people remember him telling the tides to turn back, but the whole reason for the exercise was to demonstrate that his power was limited. He knew the tides would not obey. Now it’s become a parable of foolhardy governance and poor Canute gets shafted.

  15. 2016 Could Edge Out 1998 as Hottest Year in Satellite Temperature Record

    This is very exiting! Just like a photo finish at the K Derby!


  16. If they’d fix the radiators in the satellites they wouldn’t overheat like they’ve been doing.

  17. For the first ten months of the year, 2016 is a trifling amount (0.007 C) cooler than 1998, well within the margin of error.

    I remember that year very well. It was so hot that the International Olympic Committee had to import snow in order to patch up a few places for the Nagano Winter Olympics because of Global Warming…

    … except that they didn’t.

  18. 2016 Could Edge Out 1998 as Hottest Year in Satellite Temperature Record

    …and if it doesn’t, they’ll simply make some more “adjustments” to the data so that the data comes marginally closer to matching their computer models.

  19. What we need is satellite date from the 1930s.
    Oh well.

    1. 1930? I thought the whole point was that the process was being driven by the burning of fossil fuels and the industrial revolution? What we really need is some pre-industrial satellite data.

      1. We’re also finding ourselves in the absurd situation of quibbling about thousands of a degree centigrade because of the increased resolution afforded by satellite data, never mind the negligible effect that this “increase” has on anything.

  20. -2016, about the same as 1998, both years of El Nino.
    -According to your graph, it does appear that there are more warmer months than cooler months as compared to 1978. But, compared to CO2 concentration? And at what resolution should we see affects due to CO2 concentration, IOW in the 38 years since satellite data started being recorded (or at least according to this data), has CO2 concentration rise correlated with the rise in temperature on a per year basis? Or should it be apparent on a decade? Century? Millenium?
    -Are there any significant differences in the way the data is collected from 1978? Have the locations changed? have the conditions at those locations changed? Is there possibly something different about the satellites?
    -Are there any other significant variables which could be involved? (Overall Solar output, Solar magnetic field changes? Sunspot activity?
    -Let’s say the Earth is warming, and anthropogenic CO2 is the primary cause. So what? No one has demonstrated in any way, that the negatives of a 1 deg C rise over a century outweigh the possible positives. Why aren’t the Maldives underwater yet? What is the ideal average temperature? What is was in 1978? Why?

    1. Judge Nap will be along shortly to collect all his question marks. Stop asking hard questions? /settled scientist

  21. Hope and Climate Change. I thought change was a good thing.

  22. It’s been reported here that we experienced the hottest month on satellite record going back a few years now. Was 1998 not part of the record?

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