Election 2016

If You Want To Understand Politics in 2024, Watch Statehouse Races Tuesday

They're not sexy, but they're more important than you realize. Republicans can thank state-level races for their congressional majority.

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Andre Jenny Stock Connection Worldwide/Newscom

State legislative elections don't get much attention, even in years when the presidential race isn't the only thing anyone talks about for months on end. But those local races do more than simply determine which lawmakers get a desk in the state capitol.

In more ways than one, state legislative races shape the foundation of government—and not only in faraway places like Harrisburg, Springfield, and Raleigh. If Hillary Clinton wins the White House but Republicans hold their majority in the U.S. House (as is likely), it will be in large part because of the victories Republicans have won in state-level races over the past decade. In most states, controlling state legislatures means controlling the ability to redraw congressional districts and giving your own party an electoral advantage before any voters line-up at the polls. The massive advantage that the GOP holds at the state level is something Democrats will have to reverse if they want a realistic shot at winning full control of Congress any time before 2030.

They've got a lot of work to do.

Heading into Election Day 2016, Republicans control both chambers in 30 state legislatures, while Democrats have dual-house control in just 12 states. There are seven states with Republican majorities in one chamber and Democratic majorities in another. Unofficially, Republicans also control Nebraska's unique unicameral legislature (all Nebraskan lawmakers are technically "nonpartisan" but party affiliations are hardly a secret and 35 of the chamber's 49 members are affiliated with the Republican Party).

Contrast that with where things stood when Obama was elected for the first time in 2008. Following that election, Democrats had control of both chambers in 27 states, while Republicans held all the cards in only 14 states.

Then 2010 happened.

The midterm election swept Republicans into control of both chambers of Congress, but it also produced an astounding swing in control of state legislatures.

Credit: Pew Research Center

Even as Democrats re-elected Barack Obama comfortably in 2012 and made small inroads against the GOP congressional majority, the GOP tightened their grip on state legislatures.

Obama, who probably learned this lesson better than anyone else in the wake of the 2010 election, has tried this year to use his campaigning superpowers to help Democratic candidates in state-level races, endorsing 150 candidates across 20 states.

They could use the help, because the red tide that rose in 2010 hasn't shown signs of receding. In Pennsylvania, for example, Republicans are eyeing veto-proof majorities in both the state House and state Senate this year even as polling shows that the state is likely to go "blue" for the seventh consecutive presidential cycle. Wisconsin is another reliably blue state in presidential races, but Republicans have been able to pass some of the most significant anti-union reforms in the country because of their recent success at winning seats in Madison.

Credit: Pew Research Center

Like a hurricane that hits at high tide, the storm surge from the 2010 legislative elections inundated Democrats because of bad timing. It coincided with the once-per-decade process of redrawing congressional districts.

Redistricting processes vary from state-to-state, but legislators almost always have significant influence. In many states, they literally draw the congressional maps, sometimes with no practical oversight from courts or the governor's mansion. Even when there is input from other branches of government or from the public (or from the U.S. Department of Justice, which has the authority to discard congressional maps for many southern states if they are judged to disenfranchise minorities), the process remains fundamentally political.

There are plenty of ideas for how to reform the redistricting process and there are also good arguments in favor of just letting it be the political thing that it is, but those don't matter much for the point I'm making here. As it stands, control of state legislatures after the 2010 election is a major reason why Republicans are likely to control the U.S. House through the rest of the decade, and Democrats have an uphill battle if they want to control that process (or even limit Republican control of it) after 2020.

This is partially a function of geography. In many places, Democrats tend to be clustered together in cities, making it easier for Republicans to pile blue voters into fewer districts. More advanced technology makes it easier for excrutiatingly nuanced and hyper-partisan maps to be drawn, too.

Controlling redistricting doesn't inoculate a party against losing a congressional majority, but it does help turn virtual "ties" into wins. In 2012, voters in Virginia cast 1.8 million votes for Democratic congressional candidates and 1.9 million votes for Republicans, but the GOP carried eight of the state's 11 districts. In Pennsylvania that same year, Democratic candidates "won" by 83,000 votes but Republicans actually won 13 of 18 districts.

North Carolina was perhaps the most dramatic example of this phenomenon. Democrats collected 80,000 more votes in U.S. House elections in 2012 but saw a 7-4 majority in the state's congressional delegation evaporate into a 9-6 Republican edge.

We could see another variation on the same theme this year. Election forecaster Nate Silver projects Hillary Clinton to win the White House and Democrats to seize control of the U.S. Senate, but he (and plenty of other prognosticators) says it would take an extraordinary result for Republicans would lose their House majority.

This is the under-reported, parallel story to the well-worn narrative about how demographic and cultural shifts (along with deep fractures in the Republican Party's coalition, to the extent that such a thing even exists anymore) give Democrats an inside track to winning the White House in 2016 and beyond.

It's also the underlying friction behind most of the political spats we've seen in the last four years. Almost every controversial political issue has been a disagreement between the White House and Republicans in Congress (the Iran deal, the sequester, the debt ceiling, etc.) or between Democratic-appointed executive officials and Republican-controlled states (North Carolina's bathroom bill, religious freedom laws in several states, Obamacare's exchanges, etc.).

Electing Clinton or Trump won't change any of that. The underlying friction is locked in place until at least 2022, when the new congressional maps will take effect—and maybe longer, if Republicans' hold on state legislatures continues.

Here's the upshot for libertarians: Divided government is likely to continue. Despite the problem that a growing percentage of the federal budget gets spent without Congress doing anything—about two-thirds of spending, including entitlements and interest on the debt, is on autopilot; a decade ago, it was more like 50 percent–when everyone is on the same page, you end up with the PATRIOT Act, authorization for the use of force in Iraq, and the TARP bailouts.

Another positive to gridlock is that there maybe a new focus on state-level races as the 2020 election nears—particularly if Obama follows through on his promise to campaign down-ballot in the future. Congressional districts will be redrawn the year after, so exactly who wins what at the state level will have a serious influence on national politics.

Libertarians aren't going to win the White House this year, but there are already four state lawmakers currently affiliated with the Libertarian Party (state senators in Nebraska and Utah, a state representative in New Hampshire, and a state assemblyman in Nevada). There are 239 Libertarian Party candidates seeking state legislative offices this year and those numbers are likely to increase with each successive election.

State House and Senate races will never dominate national headlines and most of the country's 7,300 state legislators would struggle to be recognized by anyone outside their own districts. Still, as Democrats have learned since 2010, we ignore these races at our own peril. What happens at the state level ultimately helps to determine what happens in Washington, D.C.

NEXT: (No) Surprise! Bill Weld Endorses...Gary Johnson for President!

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  1. the U.S. Department of Justice, which has the authority to discard congressional maps for many southern states if they are judged to disenfranchise minorities

    Seriously? Gerrymandering doesn’t happen outside the south? Oh, only the good kind, I guess.

    1. Shirley Jackson-Lee must keep her seat.

      1. Sheila. Sheila. I always get her confused with Shirley Q Liquor.

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    2. Speaking of gerrymandering, before SC regained the 7th district Jim Clyburn’s district was hilariously gerrymandered.

    3. As a Marylander I find this touches on two of the greatest controversies of our state.

    4. Where do you get the idea that DoJ is trying to STOP gerrymandering? The feds have actually mandated gerrymandering in some situations. Because…reasons.

    5. It has nothing to do with gerrymandering, it has to do with the south’s historic practice of disenfranchising black voters through various ways.

  2. If you want to understand politics….
    ….get drunk and get on social media.

    1. Or get drunk and go to the zoo and watch the apes and monkeys.

      1. A terrific display of poo flinging is to be witnessed in either venue, although the primates at the zoo seem much more practical and skilled at the art.

  3. This is the biggest continually missed opportunity of the Libertarian Party. Instead of renting out a hotel every four years so that a bunch of neckbeard attention whores can see what socializing with other people might be like the national party could take even that relatively meager amount of money and put it into a local race where there’s a candidate that might have a shot. Or shit, just set it up as a grant and let people who want to run for local office as Libertarians apply for some cash towards campaign posters and so forth. That’s a much better way to spend that money than renting out a stage for some idiot with a boot on his head to feel clever.

    And frankly, no matter how much money is spent on the conventions, the LP has to stop being the party of whackos. No more Vermin Supremes, no more fat guys in bikinis. I mean, with all due respect to the guy, there’s someone named Starchild on the national committee. Star-motherfucking-child. But yeah, skeptical Americans, libertarianism isn’t a fringe ideology for dropouts and flakes, we swear.

    These idiots don’t make it easy.

    1. NO they don’t. I have an idea, how about concentrating on school board elections. School boards have a tremendous amount of power in this country and putting Libertarians on them would make a big difference. A hell of a lot more difference than getting 3% in the Presidential election.

      1. Exactly. Think about how the ROI improves if you take all the effort expended on selling Johnson/Weld for a chance at 5% nationally and put it into several key races in likely areas. How many Libertarian mayors are there right now? How many school boards have registered Libertarians on them? You’ve got to make it so that voters get used to seeing Libertarian right alongside Republican and Democrat. And successful Libertarian politicians at the local level do more to enhance the brand than any amount of mixed national coverage–mixed being a charitable description of the shellacking Johnson has received.

        1. Great idea, but I’d just as soon have libertarians as Libertarians on school boards, inasmuch as most school board elections are nonpartisan, and the voter registration of board members hardly gets publicized. The major problem with getting radical libertarians (whether LP members or otherwise) on school boards (and other local boards) is that they don’t run for them because they consider the position icky. Their attitude is that although these boards command huge budgets as a fraction of gov’t spending, they’re not allowed to return the $ to the taxpayers, and that as long as there are gov’t schools (or gov’t whatever), no change in their policies is going to increase liberty. This is an unfortunate attitude.

          In my experience, service on a school board is hardly ever part of the resume of officials who are subsequently elected or appointed to higher positions. It may have been more so in the past, but these days it seems far more partisan politicians started their political careers by becoming lawyers and/or helping other politicians.

    2. People who lost their shit out of the guy stripping down and dancing on stage are what’s wrong with the LP.

  4. Listen, I don’t have time for this. I have unattributed passages from socialite e-mails to cherry-pick and jump to conclusions about instead.

  5. OT: I was debating with a “progressive” relative about the need for regulations. I said that people should just be allowed to sue for damages if a company actually does something that causes them illness or injury, and he replied that regulations are still necessary because some unscrupulous businessperson can just “form an LLC and then fold”, leaving the customer no recourse for getting restitution. I said that that’s a problem with the current legal system, not the lack of regulation.

    But is that claim true? Can an LLC really defraud someone and then escape any legal action by “folding”?

    1. There are a variety of measures particularly in the US that allow the company veil to be pierced in civil court, particularly if the demonstrable damage is criminal in nature. I mean, the positions and generality of the whole circumstance you and your relative is so broad. On the other hand, piercing the veil isn’t easy. Subpoenas can probably overturn evidence of the diversion of funds/proceeds/assets with the purpose of avoiding paying a judgement. Theoretically transfers of assets can be walked back vis-a-vis demonstrating that fraudulent conveyance has occurred. One thing’s for sure, it takes a hell of a lot of resources to pierce the veil and do all that stuff. Some lawyers and legal teams may take a large damage case on contingency. There are many circumstances where some regulations can help “the little guy” get justice, but that also does involve a regulatory agency taking some cheddar for its trouble via fines and its own lawsuits.

      1. Oh and, the answer to “Can an LLC really defraud someone and then escape any legal action by ‘folding’?”, if fraud is involved, the offending party cannot just surround themselves with the security of the corporate veil and twirl their villain moustache. Demonstrable fraud is a big fucking deal. Conspiracy is a thing too.

    2. Financially, sure. Hence the “limited liability” bit. You can sue an entity with no assets but it won’t do you any good. Of course, if it’s purposeful fraud, the owner of said LLC might find their personal assets under review by the court.

      A certain amount of regulation is unfortunately necessary. Otherwise cattle ranchers would be sending out beef they knew had mad cow disease and we’d still be sending children down mineshafts. The trouble is it’s a fine line between common sense regulation that protects people from criminal activity and business-harming overreach.

      1. B+

        The child miners are a nice touch.

      2. Why would cattle ranchers want to potentially kill their customers with mad cow disease?

        Most businesses cannot stay in business without repeat customers. If you kill or otherwise harm your customers, they are probably not going to come back- except as mad cow zombies. Mad cow zombies probably don’t pay, so it a net mistake.

        1. “Why would cattle ranchers want to potentially kill their customers with mad cow disease?”
          They probably don’t. But they also probably consider it an acceptable risk.

          That is to say, there are (probably) no mustache-twirling villains out to harm their customers. But there are folks that do the risk analysis, and see that taking extra safety measures is likely to cost more then they’ll save by reducing the risk of a lawsuit/bad PR. And you have to remember that it’s reduce, not eliminate. There are no safety measures or regulations in the world that can eliminate risk, just reduce it. And sooner or later, there’s a point where some safety measure won’t be profitable.

          And I need to reiterate: all of this is to decide the level of acceptable risk, because you rarely can eliminate risk. You may be able to make choices to reduce the risk from 1% to 0.5% or 0.1%, but you cannot reach zero because shit happens. So at no point is our hypothetical rancher saying “shall I sell beef that has a chance of being contaminated or beef that has no chance of being contaminated”, it’s always “what level of risk of contamination is acceptable”.

    3. You go into your state Secretary of State website for businesses. Look for duplicate names of individuals that are listed as owners or points of contact for companies. If you see a trend of individuals committing fraud to start LLCs and then gaining revenue and then closing up shop (1) don’t do business with them. (2) if you have been a victim of fraud, sue and push to make the individual liable because of fraud and conspiracy to defraud or whatever your state laws gives you cause of action.

  6. when everyone is on the same page, you end up with the PATRIOT Act, authorization for the use of force in Iraq, and the TARP bailouts.

    We had divided govt when both the Patriot Act (Dem Senate) and TARP (Dem Congress) passed. Great research, Eric.

    Way to omit the various travesties that the Democrats passed when they had full control, too. Intentional?

  7. http://www.businessinsider.com/clinto…..ls-2016-11

    CLINTON CAMPAIGN: If ‘whopper’ email is published by WikiLeaks in next 2 days, ‘it’s probably a fake’

    Can these people act more guilty? This is like going home to my wife this afternoon and telling her “if a woman calls you tonight and claims to be my mistress, she is probably lying”. Yeah, that would go over well.

    Any guess on what size 12 is going to drop? Clearly something is and it must be big or they wouldn’t be saying this.

    1. WL is really bad in their timing if they release the big whammy the day before the election. Given that the MSM refuses to report on illegally obtained information (like the Pentagon Papers and Snowden’s stuff), you have to give it time to percolate through social media and less frequented websites.

      1. Thanks to the internet and social media, they can’t cover it up anymore like they once did. But, yeah, I think they should have dropped whatever this is on Friday to give it time to peculate. Wikileaks sees it otherwise. I can’t say they are wrong. It is just not how I would have done it.

        1. I figure that they want to give the DNC, Hillary and the media little time for damage control.

          If there is nothing spectacular by tonight, it won’t cause voters to pause. The emails show how the DNC fucked Bernie supporters and most of those people will still vote Hillary. The FBI is not willing to recommend indictment for Hillary’s mishandling of classified information. Only Trump/Gary Johnson winning the Presidency will slightly correct the corruption of the FBI, DOJ and White House.

    2. You need 2 hacks to handle the Whopper.

  8. As much as I hate gerrymandering, reality is if the districts were drawn in a nonpartisan way, the Democrats would be running the country at this point.

    1. Not if you divided state in equal part grids. The grids would not have similar populations but the Democrats mainly control cities and only a few grids would cover a city inside an entire state.

      Plus, if we went back to Senators being picked by state Legislatures, the Democrats would not control the Senate for a long time.

  9. I can’t believe we’re almost there.

  10. “Heading into Election Day 2016, Republicans control both chambers in 30 state legislatures, while Democrats have dual-house control in just 12 states. There are seven states with Republican majorities in one chamber and Democratic majorities in another.”

    We need 34 states to force a national convention to propose Amendments to the Constitution.

    Include Nebraska, and the Republicans are four short of being able to do that without any interference from Democrats.

    We’d need 38 state legislatures to ratify a proposed Amendment for it to become part of the Constitution.

    If we proposed something like a balanced budget amendment after 2030, there may be sufficient pressure from split state legislatures to get some Democrats to side with Republicans on that.

    It wouldn’t matter who the President is; the President doesn’t need to be involved in the process at all. That being said, if Hillary wins, she’s likely to face a giant backlash in the midterms. Maybe enough to get the Republicans the legislatures they need to propose an amendment without any interference from Democrats.

    The danger would be that the social conservatives would shoot the Republicans in the foot by trying to ban abortion or gay marriage. We might be better off trying for a proposal convention that needs a little Democrat support–and hence a wedge issue couldn’t make it out of the proposal convention.

    1. My math was bad there. Three, four–point is, they’re almost there.

      Leadership to coordinate between the states would need to come from the RNC with the support of people like Paul Ryan.

      It would also need support from private interests–people like the Koch Brothers.

      1. Leadership to coordinate between the states would need to come from the RNC with the support of people like Paul Ryan.

        Okay Ken, that made me laugh out loud. Good one.

        1. It has to come from where it has to come from.

          Unfortunately, they can’t play the game with the quarterback they wish they had.

          They gotta play the game with the quarterback they’ve got.

          And if we wanted to emerge as a real force in politics and history with an issue that wasn’t so divisive, support for a balanced budget amendment is about the only one I can think of that could unify an awful lot of voters under the Republican banner.

          You don’t want the government spending money to fight global warming, that’ll be a whole lot harder when they’re trying to figure out how to pay for it and what else to cut.

          You don’t want us getting involved in a war in Syria? President Hillary would have a much harder time finding the money for that if she had to find the money instead of just kicking the can down the road.

          Now I’ve given both anti-global warming people and anti-war people a legitimate reason to support the party all the way down the ticket, and I’m just getting warmed up. That’s the way you build a coalition of interests around a single issue.

          There’s just a huge opportunity there.

          And no one’s even talking about it.

          1. You are right. But it won’t come from them. If it comes, and I think it might, it will come after GOP voters have revolted and put more than a few heads on the wall and put the fear of God in the GOP leadership. Likely one of those heads will have to be Ryan’s.

            1. The other model is an old Republican warhorse from the past–with Al Gore being something of a model for that.

              STOP laughing and hear me out!

              What I’m talking about starts as something like Al Gore’s initiative in bringing all those state attorneys general together to sue Exxon and the other oil companies for misleading their investors about the risks of climate change.

              No doubt, attorneys general are easier to coordinate than legislatures, but the principle is the same. You get a few deep red states together to pass a bill calling for a proposal convention for the express purpose of proposing a balanced budget amendment, and more or more red states follow suit. As more states sign on, it becomes a bigger issue across state borders.

              Someone might even make a political career out of lobbying state legislatures that way. It might be a Republican from a deep red state who wants to run for President. What better way to get the support for President than rallying state level Republicans behind a balanced budget amendment proposal from state to state. It could be Rand Paul, or it could be somebody else.

              Like Ronald Reagan did with Howard Jarvis. And it’s an anti-establishment message. We’re gonna do the whole Amendment without Washington. It’s a grass roots coalition as broad as one can be.

            2. As the chart up top shows, getting control of 31 state legislatures was the hard part.

      2. Unless Republicans really believed they’ve lost the presidency for a generation, why would they ever propose a “balanced budget” amendment? As they’ve shown every time they’re in the hot seat, they don’t actually care about it.

  11. When campaign advisor Neera Tanden asked, “Do we actually know who told Hillary she could use a private email? And has that person been drawn and quartered?” Podesta responded, “Don’t you think Cheryl?” (RELATED: ‘F**king Insane’ ? Secret Message Shows Hillary Camp Freaking Out About Her Private Emails)

    Mills was questioned by the FBI in connection to the email investigation and, in an unusual step, was allowed to be present during Clinton’s interview as her counsel.

    To Podesta’s suggestion it was Mills, Tanden responded, “I repeat, why hasn’t this person been drawn and quartered? I’m reading wolf hall. There is something to be said for the power of torture.”

    The Daily Caller previously reported Tanden’s response, but the most recent WikiLeaks release shows Podesta’s subsequent response.

    “At least we now know why Cheryl didn’t want her to run,” Podesta responded.

    Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11…..z4PFWiBIPU

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  13. Let’s just relax and watch Hillary make a fool of herself for 12 minutes:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXU0iU97aT0

    Yesterday I went to a fun place in San Jose called the Real Escape Room. I think it started in Japan. You get locked in a room with a bunch of strangers and have 1 hour to find the key so you can escape. We had to find clues, solve puzzles, and dismantle furniture. We found the key, but we did not figure out the combination to the lock in time. It was a lot of fun.

  14. I believe this video sums up what will happen on Election Day:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vQ1K3D3–M

    1. What the fuck is going on in that first clip of the compilation? Overacting? Stupidity? Both?

      Shapiro and the ass from Young Turks: It looked to me like Shapiro stood his ground and the ass was completely wrong about what happened on the clip.

      “How does it feel to be an Uncle Tom?” What an ass.

      Horowitz and his “If you don’t condemn Hamas you support Hamas”. Fuck off. I don’t give a damn about Hamas.

      I stopped watching at that point.

  15. Just beautiful: Clinton ordered her maid to print out classified emails
    http://www.foxnews.com/politic…..rials.html

    So not only did she mishandle classified information, she’s one of those idiots that insists on printing out emails. I wonder if she shredded them afterward.

    1. And the footer that said “please save the environment and consider not printing this email” probably increased the page count by 1.

    2. Just another job the native born refuse to do.

  16. It’s going to be interesting if the Freestaters win in NH.

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  18. I’m planning on running for state house in 2018. Probably mostly a paper candidate, but the district I live in only has a Republican on the ballot this year, and it was the same last time too. Not even a Democrat competitor. People need at least the illusion of choice.

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  22. . Democrats collected 80,000 more votes in U.S. House elections in 2012 but saw a 7-4 majority in the state’s congressional delegation evaporate into a 9-6 Republican edge.

    To be fair, North Carolina’s Democrats had won only 44% of the vote in 2010 when they got that 7-4 majority in the congressional delegation, because the 2001-2010 map in North Carolina was an equally ridiculous pro-D gerrymander.

    1. As the D.C. swamp gets larger and larger, so fall the surrounding states to the progtards.

  23. RE: If You Want To Understand Politics in 2024, Watch Statehouse Races Next Tuesday

    If you want to understand politics in 2024, just watch the robots vote for a democrat of republican without thinking or use logic and common sense.

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