Millennials

Surveys Show Gary Johnson Appeal Growing Among Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White Millennials

Asked about our biggest problems, the most common answer among young black voters was racism, while Hispanics said immigration, Asians said education, and whites said terrorism/homeland security.

|

Morgen Schuler The Photo Access/Newscom

Do third-party presidential candidates fare poorly with minority millennials this election? In recent national polls, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein have done relatively well with young voters overall. But using a series of recent surveys from GenForward, Mother Jones asserts that young black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans "are much less likely than their white peers" to support the likes of Johnson or Stein.

If we frame the same data another way, however, we get a much more third-party-pleasing view: support for Johnson among young people of color has been steadily increasing since July. And their support for Stein, while static, has mostly matched that of their white counterparts, according to the GenForward surveys.

GenForward, a joint project of the University of Chicago and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, is meant to track millennial political attitudes with atypical emphasis on including non-white participants. September respondents included 530 (non-Hispanic) whites, 517 Hispanics, 501 blacks, 261 Asians, and 42 folks from other racial or ethnic backgrounds, all between the ages of 18 and 30. The first month GenForward asked about Johnson and Stein specifically was July, with Johnson winning 8 percent of respondents overall and Stein 4 percent. In September, Stein remained at 4 percent but Johnson was up to 11 percent.

GenForward Sept. survey/Screenshot

It might have been small, but Johnson's bump was the biggest change in support seen for any of the candidates since July. In September, Hillary Clinton's share of millennial voters was up just one percentage point over July, from 35 to 36 percent, while Trump was down one point, from 19 to 18 percent. (Sixteen percent of respondents said they "probably wouldn't vote," 9 percent were still undecided, and 5 percent said they were voting for someone not named).

And Johnson's appeal had increased among all racial/ethnic cohorts between the July and September surveys. Among white millennials he was up from 11 to 15 percent, among Hispanics up from 5 to 8 percent, among Asians up from 4 to 6 percent, and among blacks from 3 to 4 percent.

We should avoid making much of these ethnic and racial breakdowns, however—the margins of sampling error in the GenForward surveys were quite high. In September, for instance, the sampling error was plus or minus 5.9 percentage points for blacks, 8.6 percentage points for Asians, 6.4 points for Hispanics, and 5.7 percent for whites. That means black support for Johnson could theoretically be less than 1 percent or stand at nearly 10 percent; that Johnson voters could account for less than 2 percent of Hispanic respondents or nearly 15 percent; and so on.

For white millennials—who are the most likely to say they'll vote this November—the +/- 5.7 point margin of error could seriously close the gap between Johnson and Clinton or Trump, who each had the support of just 27 percent of whites in GenForward's September survey.

The non-race specific data is somewhat more reliable, with the overall margin of sampling error here plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

One good sign for Johnson in this data is that the once-vast majority of young adults who didn't know who he was or had no opinion of him has become a much smaller majority. For millennials (of all races and ethnicities) surveyed, those with no view of Johnson went from 71 percent in July to 59 percent in September. His favorable rating over this period went from 18 to 25 percent, with his unfavorable rising as well, from 11 to 16 percent. Also of note to libertarians: forty-two percent of those surveyed said free trade agreements neither help nor hurt the U.S. economy, 36 percent that they're good for the economy, and 20 percent that they're bad.

Of note more generally, less than half (46 percent) of all respondents said they would definitely vote, with 20 percent saying probably, 10 percent saying probably not, 10 percent saying definitely not, and 15 percent still uncertain. White millennials were the most enthusiastic about voting, with 71 percent saying they would probably or definitely vote, compared to 61 percent of blacks, 59 percent of Hispanics, and 55 percent of Asians.

Asked about the biggest issue facing America, the most common answer among black respondents was racism. For Hispanics the top answer was immigration, for Asians it was education, and for whites terrosim and homeland security.

GenForward Sept. 2016 survey

NEXT: The Reporting of Trump's PTSD Comments Shows Why His Supporters Hate the Media

Editor's Note: We invite comments and request that they be civil and on-topic. We do not moderate or assume any responsibility for comments, which are owned by the readers who post them. Comments do not represent the views of Reason.com or Reason Foundation. We reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason at any time. Report abuses.

  1. Don’t do it Millennials. You’ll regret it like when I was 18 and threw my vote away on John Anderson. I could of made history and voted for Ed Clark, the only Libertarian Party presidential candidate ever to break 1% of the total vote.

    1. What is actually finally interesting about these bullshit polls is that this appears to prove the success of brainwashing. All of the issues in the title are hardly important yet excellent distractions.

      The only things that actually matter regarding the welfare of the American citizen are the economy, impending national bankruptcy, criminal wars and the debt that accompanies them, the growth of bloated wasteful gov’t, eroded liberty, and central government manipulation of markets.

      Contrary to the herd’s beliefs, black people, Hispanics, and every other victim minority have it just fine here in the states. Stop bitching and start paying attention to what is really broken here..
      As free markets go, so do liberties, freedom, and prosperity.

    2. You’re only in your 50s? I was picturing a walker and a feeding tube.

      1. You voted for the guy who wrote “swingin'”?

      2. Oh, he’s got a feeding tube. But he highly overestimated the market for defeated gamecock foie gras.

    3. The second time I voted was for Ed Clark. My first vote was against Gerald Ford, who let Nixon off the hook.

  2. “Asked about our biggest problems, the most common answer among young black voters was racism, while Hispanics said immigration, Asians said education, and whites said terrorism/homeland security.”

    At least they avoided clich?d answers, right?

    1. Job done.

      /The Media

    2. Racism is endemic among blacks, and it’s promising that they recognize their problem.

      1. Someone is coming for your house.

  3. The percentages of people who say they probably won’t vote are encouraging.

    1. I noticed the same thing. *That’s* the real number we need to grow.

      1. That’s exactly what I was thinking back in 2012, which is why I decided not to vote that year, although I seriously considered voting for Johnson. I think getting away from the two-party system is the most important thing now, which is why I am voting for Johnson this year. But do we really need to have that off-color slogan “Feel the Johnson”?

          1. Double yes.

  4. Once Millennials reach the age they’ll vote reliably, Johnson will have a real shot!

    1. If only there was a pill that would allow you to shoot, er, vote reliably.

    2. I always rooting for Johnson.

  5. Everyone wants the Johnson.

  6. The Johnson is Growing

  7. African American top concerns:
    1. Police Brutality
    2. Racism
    3. Gun Control

    Police Brutality AND Gun Control…

    There’s a scene in the new Luke Cage series where a politician takes the energy from a rally against police brutality and channels it into calls for supporting giving the cops new military-grade superweapons. They got the liberal tendency to channel police concerns into calls for empowering the police down perfectly.

    1. Man: So, you want a realistic, down-to-earth show… that’s completely off-the-wall and swarming with magic robots?

      Kids: [all agreeing, quieter this time] That’s right. Oh yeah, good.

      Milhouse: And also, you should win things by watching.

      Roger Myers Jr. [turns on the light in the observation booth, making himself visible to the kids]: You kids don’t know what you want! That’s why you’re still kids; ’cause you’re stupid!

  8. I was at his Phoenix rally Saturday. The crowd (about 300) was surprisingly diverse, both racially with a lot of Hispanics and with people across all age groups. In addition to young people there were a lot of middle aged ones.

    Plenty of women too.

    1. The notion that Trump supporters are racists or anti-muslim is pretty hilarious. A couple of weekends back, my neighbrhood had a block party. There are a handful of Trump supporters living on the block, and they were roping everyone in to sign a petition to save an arab businessman’s restaurant (the town is dicking around with his licenses and he’s nearly gone bankrupt making all the changes the town has been demanding).

      One of the trump supporters told me something to the effect of “This is America, and we’re not supposed to fuck around with an honest businessman who is playing by the rules.”

      1. God damn it! Wrong thread!

      2. Wow, it’s almost like some members of a group have characteristics different from other members of the group. Also, it’s like some people believe showing that one element of a set has a property implies that all members of the set have that property.

  9. #FeeltheJohnson

  10. The thing about that list of issues is it doesn’t say what side of the issue you are on.

    Both a hardcore pro-choicer and a hardcore pro-lifer could both list “Abortion” as number one. The same is true for many of the others.

    1. Why does that matter? The point is the “hardcore-ness” is predictable along racial lines.

  11. Why does Trump fare so poorly with African-Americans?

    1. Compared to republicans-in-general, he doesn’t, really.

      Why do republicans fail so poorly? because they wrote them off them decades ago.

      1. I don’t know how Republicans were ever supposed to compete for black votes when the issues they always campaign are always deemed racist. There’s not a position a Republican could take that wouldn’t be spun as TEH RACIZMZ in the mainstream media.

    2. The same reason that Republicans generally fare so poorly with African-Americans?

    3. Because they are told to hate him.

      Just like repubs are told to hate dems because USA!

      And that encompasses the American electorate’s capacity for informational thought, reading, and introspection.

    4. No, it’s 100 percent economics.

  12. Michael Hihn, we of the commentariat would love to know your thoughts on Libertarianism.

    1. Are you nuts? Now only two other people in the thread have to mention Michael Hihn’s name and he will appear in the mirror. Oh, shit, oops….

      1. He’s coming anyway. Might as well put a welcome mat next to the coffin that will be this thread later.

        1. I always read his comments in a vampire voice. It makes it entertaining.

          1. Classical vamp or millennial vamp? Or Buffy vamp? Maybe Blade vamp?

            1. Mr. hihn sounds like Sinead O’Connor on the McLaughlin group.

              1. He rips up pictures of Rand Paul instead of the Pope.

                1. I hadn’t seen Hihn in a while, so i checked out some of the work he did in one of the morning threads this afternoon. Apparently, he no longer randomly bolds words, he randomly capitalizes them instead.

                  1. Count how many cyber-bullies are committing aggression in this thread … all marching in lockstep with their cult, like sheep. Then go here and learn what they try to suppress. REAL policies in taxes, healthcare and federalism, where the libertarian establishment and Paulista Cult have NOTHING … twenty fucking years later. Behold the anti-gummint mentality and see why the libertarian brand is rejected by … 91% of libertarians! (per Cato, NOT ME)

                    http://libertyissues.com/archive.htm

                    (My tone and boldface in self -defense of self-evident aggression)
                    (but walks away ;laughing)

                    1. Michael Hihn is correct.

                    2. Defensive, or confidence, pick one, combining the two makes the latter look like hollow bravado.

                    3. (laughing at the new thug) The two go together quite well. Now to call YOU out.
                      First one calls out the attack . Then one links to proof. As I do here.

                      http://www.merriam-webster.com…..defensive.

                      http://www.merriam-webster.com…..confidence

                      And a third callout.
                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem

                      That’s WHY I’m the only one ever providing proof. Ad Hominems are for bullies and thugs.
                      Thank you for playing.
                      Please select a parting gift on your way out.

      2. Answer to your question: yes. 99.99% of the commenters on here are. *giggles like the Hihnster

      3. He’s a dead thread fucker, our premier necrophile. He will wait until Annabel Lee is cold in her sepulchre there by the sea before climbing in with her.

        1. What does that make Fist?

          1. He’s a pederast.

            1. Excuse me, a threaderast.

              1. Excellent.

                1. Count how many cyber-bullies are committing aggression in this thread … all marching in lockstep with their cult, like sheep. Then go here and learn what they try to suppress.

                  http://libertyissues.com/archive.htm

                  REAL policies in taxes, healthcare and federalism, where the libertarian establishment and Paulista Cult have NOTHING … twenty fucking years later.

                  Behold the anti-gummint mentality and see why the libertarian brand is rejected by … 91% of libertarians! (per Cato, NOT ME)

                  (My tone and boldface in self -defense of self-evident multiple aggressions)
                  (but walks away ;laughing)

                  1. Michael Hihn is your redeemer and savior.

                    1. Count how many cyber-bullies are committing aggression in this thread … all marching in lockstep with their cult,

                      Michael Hihn is your redeemer and savior

                      Add one more thug. Now go here to see WHAT they try to suppress

                      http://libertyissues.com/archive.htm

                      ESPECIALLY this. Cato’s survey proving me correct about them

                      “In our Zogby survey we found that only 9 percent of voters with libertarian views identify themselves that way.” –David Boaz and David Kirby

                      So … a TOP pollster found that 91% of those with libertarian values reject how the entire brand has been destroyed by those who betray the values of liberty.

                      Per Cato. One can see why the thuggish ones —- it’s called “shooting the messenger.” and “severe denial” And why Cato stopped using independent pollsters?

                      But a special place in Hell is reserved for those who would defame anyone’s dead mother.

                      For tonight’s homework: who is propelling the expansion if these libertarian values — 53% of Americans who are Nolan libertarians, active in their communities, with 40,000-50,000 in elected local office? …. Or 5.3% of Americans, half of which are the anti-social bullies who destroyed our brand? (Many as constitution-hating bigots in Ron Paul’s cult)

                      Tough question? (lol)

  13. I’m more interested in what bacon-magic is.

    1. Bacon is the candy of meats. It’s almost magical.

    2. Bacon is magic.

      1. Sugar is free.

        1. SF’s stories should be NYT bestsellers.

          1. And he is a paragon of taste and sophistication, as you can see.

      2. No almost about it.

  14. I am making $89/hour working from home. I never thought that it was legitimate but my best friend is earning $10 thousand a month by working online, that was really surprising for me, she recommended me to try it. just try it out on the following website.

    ===> http://www.NetNote70.com

  15. the most common answer among young black voters was racism, while Hispanics said immigration, Asians said education, and whites said terrorism/homeland security.

    But if you predicted those results you’d be a racist.

  16. Start working at home with Google! It’s by-far the best job I’ve had. Last Wednesday I got a brand new BMW since getting a check for $6474 this – 4 weeks past. I began this 8-months ago and immediately was bringing home at least $77 per hour. I work through this link, go to tech tab for work detail,,,,,,,
    ——————>>> http://www.4cyberworks.com

  17. Look at Hillary beaming next to her inspiration Henry Kissinger.

    http://www.nytimes.com/politic…..haunt-her/

  18. Here in [redacted] we have some colorful homeless people. “Filthy Pete” smells of several different kinds of funk, fills any room with a stench that lingers for hours, and occasionally shits himself in public. “Preacher Dan” subjects everyone in earshot to endless monologues about how he has been ordained to preach the true Gospel against the Satanic [Redacted] Conspiracy that is trying to destroy him, when he’s not inappropriately touching other people’s children. If you put both of these characters together, they wouldn’t be as deeply unpleasant as M*****l H**n.

  19. polls and “whatever” studies aside:

    the majority of Libertarians i know (including myself) are ethnic.

    so, yes, the party is a good fit for ALL ethnicities and does not disparage ANY race/ethnicity. amazing how this angers certain individuals.

  20. my friend’s mom makes $67 an hour on the internet . She has been fired for five months but last month her pay check was $20360 just working on the internet for a few hours. view….
    >>>>>>>>> http://www.Reportmax20.com

  21. Bryce . even though Samuel `s story is unbelievable… on tuesday I bought a great Peugeot 205 GTi after making $4790 this – four weeks past an would you believe $10k last month . it’s definitly the most-comfortable work Ive ever done . I actually started 4 months ago and right away startad earning more than $85 p/h . find more info

    ……………. http://www.BuzzNews10.com

  22. my friend’s mom makes $67 an hour on the internet . She has been fired for five months but last month her pay check was $20360 just working on the internet for a few hours. view….
    >>>>>>>>> http://www.Reportmax20.com

  23. Bryce . even though Samuel `s story is unbelievable… on tuesday I bought a great Peugeot 205 GTi after making $4790 this – four weeks past an would you believe $10k last month . it’s definitly the most-comfortable work Ive ever done . I actually started 4 months ago and right away startad earning more than $85 p/h . find more info

    ……………. http://www.BuzzNews10.com

Please to post comments

Comments are closed.