Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

Wisconsin at an overall 16 percent especially strong for the Libertarian ticket.

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A newly released poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, done for a couple of Democratic Party-associated operations, covered nine battleground states and has some encouraging and/or just interesting results for Libertarian Gary Johnson. The survey was of 2700 likely voters and conducted from June 11-20.

Reason magazine

Across those nine states (Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) some big picture stuff:

  • Clinton 45 percent, Trump 38, Johnson 11
  • Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5
  • Johnson beats his overall 11 percent average slightly with Hispanics, with 12 percent
  • Johnson neck-and-neck with Trump with millennials, 22 percent to Trump's 24. Johnson's Gen X support also beats his overall average, at 13 percent. With Boomers, though, he's only pulling 5 percent.
  • Five percent of identified Democrats say they'll vote Johnson; 11 percent of identified Republicans say the same.
  • Identified independents are going for Johnson 24 percent (Trump has 33, Clinton 32 of that group).
  • Without Johnson as a choice, Clinton does 4 percent better, Trump does 3 percent better, and "other/don't know" does 4 percent better.

Some state-specific results show Johnson beating his nine-state 11 percent average in Ohio (14), Pennsylvania (13), Wisconsin (16), and Michigan (12). Johnson's worst state among the nine is North Carolina, where he's pulling only 8 percent.

Among the five Rustbelt States, Johnson is outperforming Trump with minorities (12-11) and millennials (28-21).

Matt Welch has gotten granular on overall national Johnson poll results here, here, and here. Welch supplied me with some of his latest findings this morning regarding Johnson and polling, including Johnson almost always polling above 15 percent with independents, and in one Investors Business Daily/TIPP poll the Libertarian ticket getting nearly a quarter (24 percent) of millennials.

Thanks to Reason's Patrick McMahon for finding and assembling some of the more interesting data points from the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll today.

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88 responses to “Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll

  1. Libertarian. Moment.

    1. In this case, it might actually be marginally true.

      Just like Johnson/Weld is a marginal libertarian ticket.

      But still better than Barr/Root, which I voted for.

      1. which I voted for

        Why?

        1. The only other tolerable option was not voting.

          And while I respect that decision, I rarely take it.

          1. So you’re the one who caused Block Insane Yomamma to be elected.

            1. I tawt it were da joos

            2. Yes, because my vote is why McCain won KY by ONLY 16.22%

              1. Obama did win my county by nearly 12%, but there were way more than 8 votes, so still not my fault.

                1. Not directly but because of you and people like you who voted kinda on principles he won. Ever think about that? /thisiswhatpartisansactuallythink.

              2. You’re real crime is being from Kentucky.

            3. He’s not my president.

              1. The system tells you otherwise.

                Comply bitch whether you like it or not.

                On a serious note, for the first time in my life I feel that way about a Prime Minister. No way do I view Justin as my ‘leader’.

                Full out rebellion in the dressing room.

                1. No politician should ever be viewed as a leader.

            4. You only get 1 Mulligan Warty.

        2. The KY ballot that year was:

          Obama
          McCain
          Nader
          Barr
          Baldwin

          That is 3 non-viable options and two poor ones.

          Ballot access was the best reason to cast a vote that year.

          1. Ballot access was the best reason to cast a vote that year.

            I vote Libertarian across the board in all elections to help maintain ballot access for down-ticket candidates who occasionally have a realistic chance of having an impact.

      2. I wrote in Ron Paul last time.

      3. Trump is likely to choose a real turkey for his running mate, and Hillary’s choice will probably also translate to a net loss of support. That should be all it takes to get Johnson/Weld into the TV debates.

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  2. Can’t wait until the LP goes mainstream and then falls prey to the necrotic sclerosis of the other two major parties! Progress!

    1. In all fairness we could be hamstrung by our own particular subgroups. I get in arguments with AnCaps all the time personally. I mean, I get where they’re coming from but we don’t really get along.

      1. I identify as an AnCap, but I’m also an incrementalist. For the same reason that my preference for a nice mid-rare porterhouse doesn’t stop me from eating a decent cheesesteak when there’s nothing else on the table.

        1. Animal.

        2. Animal.

  3. “Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans”

    Do they just stand and watch, or are they helping?

    1. In some parts of the world, having a fight in front of a crowd leads to the crowd starting fights among themselves.

      1. “n some parts of the world, having a fight in front of a crowd leads to the crowd starting fights among themselves.”

        Or at the Auburn Palace.

        1. Or Chucky Cheese

        2. Or a baseball diamond.

          1. Or a soccer game.

    2. Given the numvers I’m guessing they’re rather ambivalent about it.

  4. “Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5”

    What percentage do Republicans normally get? 12% not going Dem seems high to me.

    1. I think Bush got like 11% or 12% which was pretty good at the time.

      1. You’re right, it looks like Dole and Bush 1 got 12 and 10% too. Maybe Obama was more of an anomaly.

    2. 5-8% across the population.

      Nonmilitary African American vote is 5-8. Not 5-8 percent, 5-8 dudes that lost bets on NBA games.

    3. Billary beat trump by what? 80-90%, now johnson beats trump by 7%? So that really means hillary beats trump by 73%-87%. I think johnson draws more from billary than trump.

  5. 22 percent among Millenials, with how little he’s known, is astounding. Could mean great things in the very long term (next several decades).

    1. Yeah, I’m actually surprised the numbers are that high given the lack of name recognition although in this election that could be a plus

      1. Absolutely there are some Millenials, including disgruntled Bernie supporters, who will check any box that isn’t next to the names “Clinton” or “Trump.” But there are more genuine libertarian/classical liberal Millenials than you might think, myself included. We just kept our heads down in college.

        1. Yeah, lack of name recognition? Millennial voters have trouble with the name Clinton. Yes, they don’t like hearing it and find it difficult to say whereas without batting an eye a millennial will refer to his Gay Jay or his former New Mexico governor or his Johnson.

          1. Johnson?

        2. Voting Libertarian……even if we lose, the message will get through to all–WE ARE TIRED OF BIG GOVT!

          1. Should have drafted Ron Paul.

          2. And also saying we accept a sub par libertarian with a pseudo libertarian vp.

    2. That’s just millennials being ironic.

  6. Has the airport bombing article disappeared for anyone else?

      1. *applause*

  7. Is there any reason to believe that actual election results won’t do what they usually do with the third party candidate: Drop to near zero?

    1. “Is there any reason to believe that actual election results won’t do what they usually do with the third party candidate: Drop to near zero?”

      I hear Hitler is a candidate this year, that might shake things up.

      1. Which one is Hitler?

        I thought Trump was Mussolini?

    2. Two reasons: Trump and Clinton.

      Plus Johnson is consistently polling 8 to 12 percent. These aren’t outlier polls.

  8. Hell yeah. At least compared to other states, mine is totally #FeelingTheJohnson. Beer, Cheese, and Johnson-Feeling for ALL!!

    1. What is this, my birthday?

      1. In non-election years, that’s Beer, Cheese, and Johnsonville Sausage, right? (I am more partial to Usingers’ brats, though.) The saying, misattributed to that statist bastard Bismark*, that Laws, like sausages, cease to inspire respect in proportion as we know how they are made is always useful during campaign season. If either LP candidate makes it to WI this year, a photo op at a sausage plant might be interesting. “This reminds me of dealing with the state legislature! Haw, haw, haw!” …and so on. – Kevin R (former resident of `sconsin.)

        * actually John Godfrey Saxe

  9. With Boomers, though, he’s only pulling 5 percent.

    “Hands off my Social Security and Medicare!” /geezers

    1. “Hands off my Social Security and Medicare and ‘traditional values’ and don’t you dare cut funding for the Pentagon!”

  10. 15! 15!

    1. this is a ‘Fight for 15’ I can get behind.

    2. Johnson will score 16% in 4 polls, and 14% in a 5th, so the Commission on Presidential Debates will exclude,him from participating.

  11. I’m not getting my hopes up. My gut still tells me that Johnson will get 2-3% at best (a Naderesque performance). If he got 5%, let alone 10%, I would be very pleasantly (well not too pleasantly, because Trump or Clinton is still winning) surprised.

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  13. He should be waaaay ahead of Hump among the snake people. Good news is that its still early.

  14. “Johnson beats Trump among African-Americans, 7 percent to 5”

    Hillary only got 88% of the black vote? Wow, she’s slipping.

    1. Yeah I can’t understand why they don’t all vote Democratic. The War on Drugs is aimed right at them, they are much more likely to be trapped in a disfunctional government school, and Social Security is a much worse deal for, them since the payroll tax is regressive and they don’t live as long.

      1. LBJ. For real. The sonofabitch was a prophet when he said he’d have those…people…voting Democrat for the next 200 years. There’s also the fact that many African-Americans tend to have at least some proximity to the welfare state, either directly, indirectly through family or friends, or a generation or two removed. Plus, the CRA of course, which earned the Dems the loyalty (if somewhat undeserved) of the black community for decades.

        I think as demographics and culture changes that’s on the way out, but it’s still a powerful influence.

  15. Yes by all means congratulate yourselves on eight years of Hillary and everything that means. In 2024 you’ll still be whining, and irrelevant.

    1. Says the guy who came here to whine.

    2. “I’m a cardboard cutout. Just standing around so you know I’m here.”

  16. “With Boomers, though, he’s only pulling 5 percent.”

    The Boomers are the country’s major problem, and always have been.

    1. This!
      The greatest generation, like many great men, were terrible parents.

      1. This is a conclusion I have come back to time and again, as well. I’m not exactly impartial, though; as a product of the boomers, I’m probably just looking for somebody else to blame.

  17. Today the millennials, tomorrow the world.

    1. Yeah, the Trumpian Baby Boomers will die off soon, and younger Republicans (see CPAC) are far more libertarian than Trumpist…

      1. Yea, like, cruz, rubio, bush….

      2. If trump loses you’ll see a major change in the party’s nominating and selection process. They will rewrite the rules so it will be impossible for any candidate running with an R to come along and not be a puppet of the donor class. The dems realized this a long time ago and made sure they would get who they wanted. Bernie never had a chance and they only made it look like hillary wasn’t the heir apparent. They changed the rules so Ron Paul supporters and the grassroots wouldn’t have a say in the writing of the republican platform and they’ll change them again to stop any one they don’t want. They’re not afraid of the third party, but once one actually has a chance to tip over the one party boat, watch the rules changes that will stop that from happening.

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  19. Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials, in New Battleground State Poll
    Wisconsin at an overall 16 percent especially strong for the Libertarian ticket.

    What’s wrong with these people voting for the LP?
    Don’t they know socialism is the answer to all their problems?
    Didn’t they listen to their instructors while they were being indoctrinated in the government monopoly public schools?
    Didn’t they listen to their clueless, over-educated idiots in the re-education camps of higher education?
    Don’t they realize freedom, capitalism and personal responsibility only leads to misery and degradation?
    Don’t they know that enslavement, oppression, conformity, compliance and blind obedience to The State only brings satisfaction, freedom and happiness?
    They should all be marched to the local gulag for further politically correct indoctrination.

    1. They are in the gulag from youth, it’s called publek edumkashun

  20. Gary Johnson Beating Trump Among African-Americans, Neck-and-Neck Among Millennials,

    This is not calculated to make me inclined toward Gary Johnson.

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