The Seven Counties That Will Determine the Next President

Q&A with Hot Air's Ed Morrissey

According to a Rasmussen poll released this week, Donald Trump is gaining support, with 42 percent of likely voters in his camp compared to Hillary Clinton's 37 percent.

But, as Hot Air's Ed Morrissey told Reason's Nick Gillespie in a recent interview, ultimately a handful of counties will determine who takes the White House in November. 

Morrissey's new book is titled, Going Red: The Two Million Voters Who Will Elect the Next President—and How Conservatives Can Win Them. (This interview originally ran on April 28, 2016.)

Click below to watch:

Comments

[Hyperion]

Going Red: The Two Million Voters Who Will Elect the Next President?and How Conservatives Can Win Them.

And these conservatives, why should I want them to win anything? Who are they anyway? It seems to me like every time these 'conservaties' get a majority in the house, a presidency, whatever, they act exactly like the Democrats who they just wrested control from.

[mfckr]

They do tend to be more pro-business?but yeah, aside from that no real difference in any of the other policy areas.

[mfckr]

Oh, and they've been decent on gun rights and didn't legislatively cave to any of the mass shooting hysterias.

[Libertarian]

No R votes for Obamacare, but I think the chance of their repealing it, even with a Republican in the White House is approximately zero.

[R C Dean]

With a Repub in the White House and Repub majorities in Congress, they could repeal it in about half an hour.

If they wanted to. They don't really want to, is the problem.

[CatoTheChipper]

They do tend to be more pro-business...

Not really. They are both pro-big-business, but favor different businesses.

Democrats love the entertainment business, the unicorns-and-rainbows energy business, too-big-to-fail financial institutions, unionized big businesses like the auto industry, big agriculture (e.g., ethanol), and many other big businesses that government can dominate with regulation and selective enforcement of international IP law.

Republicans love the military and national security businesses, the extractive industries, big utility industries, big retail and other big commercial businesses, too-big-to-fail financial institutions, and big businesses that government can dominate with regulation and selective enforcement of international IP law that are not favored by Democrats.

[CatoTheChipper]

Both pay lip service to "small business", but seem indifferent to the regulatory burdens they heap upon small businesses. The Republicans used to pay lip service to free trade while constructing massive trade agreements to regulate free trade. That was after the time that Republicans advocated stiff trade duties on imports, and before Trump. Democrats used to advocate "fair trade" and import taxes and restrictions to make sure that trade was "fair". If Trump gets elected and gets some traction in office, Democrats will probably resume their historical advocacy of free trade.

The main difference between the two parties is the order of their priorities in advancing the frontiers of big government, and that order very much seems to be determined by the cronies that they attract.

[Jerryskids]

How's Brat doing? The one who primaried out Cantor? The TEA Party bunch stirred up some shit and got a few of their own elected - but are they any different in wanting Big Gov to do this instead of that rather than actually being anti-Big Gov? (Reminded of yesterday's post on Tom Cotton - he's one of those parts of the problem who's so proud of being part of the solution.) Was swapping Boehner for Ryan a step in the right direction or just a head-fake? Are the few libertarianish Repubs in Congress a momentary aberration or a coming wave?

[OneOut]

Is that you Judge ?

[Libertarian]

Awsome McAfee commercial. I just may decide to vote this year after all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAjl-Gibm8c

[mfckr]

It needs some more editing/polish. But conveys the core msg well (i.e., the psychosocially jarring reality of life under the statist duopoly? but hey, you can choose another way!)

[Don'tTreadOnMeChipper]

That was pretty fucking awesome. So is the final message that we need to leave the planet to escape politics?

[Rich]

Interesting approach, but too long and, um, vibratory.

I wish John luck with that convincing anyone not already on board to "throw their vote away".

[CatoTheChipper]

The selection of the Firefly was inspired ... assuming the audience was familiar with the show. The Simpsons cut was perfect.

[dajjal]

McAfee is trying to undermine the Libertarian party by making it seem crazy. Why would he do that? I don't know. Why would he move to Belize and then complain that they don't have the same rights as America? Well I'm sure he has his reasons.

[Libertarian]

Sorry, but I don't see the crazy. Where I DO see crazy is at the Republican debate where the presumptive nominee talks about the size of his penis. Where I DO see crazy is the presumptive Democrat who advocated for the bombing of Libya (which was no threat to U.S. security) actually brag about her foreign policy experience when the Libya fiasco is being used by our gov't to justify boots on the ground. Where I DO see crazy is at the voting booth where my neighbors and fellow citizens are voting for these two people and expect me to be thankful that their guy is going to tell me what to do and support their ideas on "running things."

[Hyperion]

You're talking to a troll, don't waste your time.

[Hyperion]

That doesn't seem crazy to me. But then again, you are a leftist troll, so what does your opinion matter?

[dajjal]

Agreed - best not to respond to me. I thrive on the attention.

[Jerryskids]

The name's McAfee,
And I rock the telly
I'm half Joe Camel and a third Fonzarelli
I'm the Kung-Fu hippie, from Gangsta City
I'm a rappin' surfer
You the fool I pity.

I like it - it's proactive, outrageous, in-your-face with attitude, it gets busy.

[Hyperion]

Holy fucking shit, that is badass! I'm texting this to all of my friends on 3 continents, right now. He should cut out most of the flashing stuff though, it might turn some people off.

[Hyperion]

This is pretty good too.

Libertarians

I mean it seems shallow and meaningless, but if libertarians are ever going to win, we have to do it through media like this. Leftists have been winning like this for decades. Your message doesn't always need to be deep, it just needs to make people feel connected to it. Or something like that.

[You Sound Like a Prog (MJG)]

I don't get it.

[Mr. Flanders]

Awesome to us. Makes us seem insane to everyone else.

[Hyperion]

I'm testing the waters here. I love it, of course.

[Fist of Etiquette]

Pittsburgh Stillers fan alert!

[AlmightyJB]

But was he lifelong fan or a bandwagon jumper?There is an important difference. I have no problem with lifelong fans of any team. Except for maybe the Cowboys or the Raiders or the Patriots.

[Jerryskids]

As a life-long Seahawks fan (not my lifetime, theirs) I don't mind life-long Pats fans if they're old enough and decent enough to feel some shame about the current iteration, but there's no excuse for a Cowboy fan or a Yankee fan. I assume hockey and basketball have their versions of this, but I don't know and don't care enough to find out.

[R C Dean]

there's no excuse for a Cowboy fan

No, there's really not.

[hangs head in shame, sobs quietly]

[DesigNate]

You shut your whore mouth about the Cowboys.

[Adans smith]

As a Browns fan,I hate the 'Stillers' but,I have spent several weekends in Pittsburgh and have been to some very good restaurants there.The Grand Concourse is worth a visit.

[Renegade Jew]

You know who else was a Browns' fan...?

[commodious spittoon]

Dung beetles?

[Adans smith]

Spartacus?

[Jerryskids]

About one-tenth of the Family Guy fans?

[sloopyinTEXAS]

Art Modell?

[Renegade Jew]

WRONG. The correct answer is "Warty."

[commodious spittoon]

Hitler?

[Renegade Jew]

Same diff.

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[commodious spittoon]

This piece of shit is out dancing with stars and I have to drive to work.

[Jerryskids]

Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground. Remember this and you too may some day be in deep shit.

[Libertarian]

We're all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.

[Hyperion]

Reminds me of the time when I fell in a pit in my friends yard in Cincinnati. The good ol days.

[commodious spittoon]

When you're swimming in shit, it's best to keep your head up.

Sometimes that doesn't save you drowning in it.

[Ken Shultz]

Obama won in 2012--not because of local, grass roots support. Obama won in 2012 despite the grass roots revolt against him that in the midterm elections of 2010 saw Democrats suffer the biggest losses in Congressional and state elections since the Great Depression. The Republicans have never had it so good on a local basis as they have it today. Republicans dominate the state legislatures, the states' governors' mansions, and the Republicans control both houses of Congress.

I don't trust a poll that says 42 percent of likely voters prefer Trump to Hillary's 37 percent any more than I'd trust a poll that said 42 percent of likely voters prefer Hillary to Trump's 37 percent. Regardless, the national election for President is not dependent on local support for local candidates and local issues. Those two worlds--the Presidential race and the grass roots--hardly have anything to do with each other. Obama winning in 2012 despite the Republicans sweeping everything in site at the local level--because of opposition to Obama--demonstrates that.

[commodious spittoon]

Fuck the grass roots. You know what grass roots can do? Eat shit. What has any grass roots movement done besides coalesce around some dumb fucking asshole with a messiah complex, or fallen apart completely? Really, the best expression of civic consciousness they can muster is championing some egotistical dipshit in their spare time? At the very least it's revealing how worthless their time is, but really it shows that maybe universal franchise is a fucking mistake.

[commodious spittoon]

In fact, I'll go one further. If your idea of civic participation involves holding a sign, you lose your vote and your 1A protection, and you spend a week in a stockade as a warning to others

[commodious spittoon]

With a banner hanging over your head, reading: this is how I spent my spare time. I am a useless git. Feel free to pelt me with expired produce.

[Mr. Flanders]

You sound like an authoritarian asshole.

[commodious spittoon]

Bring back the poll tax, I say. Hold a sign? Pay the fine.

[commodious spittoon]

Anyway, it's not authoritarian, it's counterthoritarian. There's a difference: these assholes want to tell me how to live my life, and I want to make it as difficult and uncomfortable for them as possible.

[Ken Shultz]

If Trump wins, it won't have anything to do with what Republicans are doing at the local level. If Hillary Clinton wins, it won't have anything to do with what the Democrats did at the local level either. "Think globally, act locally" is what the environmentalists say, and that's what I think people do--and its inverse, too! They vote for local politicians to oppose the President. They vote for a President to oppose what they see happening in Congress.

They also vote for a President for the same reasons they watch Game of Thrones or go to see one movie rather than another.

Local organization gets you what Paul got in 2012--not enough by itself to win.

[Ken Shultz]

"They also vote for a President for the same reasons they watch Game of Thrones or go to see one movie rather than another.

Seriously, if Rand Paul emerged from am enormous bonfire naked, unsinged, and holding three dragons? He would absolutely be the next President.

[Jerryskids]

They also vote for a President for the same reasons they watch Game of Thrones or go to see one movie rather than another.

And if anybody ever figured out what those reasons are they'd get all the marketing and advertising money in the world. The fact that one formula works one time but not another indicates there really aren't any reasons - people are just crazy and there's no telling what they might do. Once they've done it, though, there's a million experts telling you exactly why the unpredictable thing that just happened was entirely predictable and why they didn't predict it. Experts are always better at predicting the past than explaining the future.

[R C Dean]

To get tuned up for the election season, here's the Compleat Iron Laws:

1. You get more of what you reward and less of what you punish.
2. Money and power will always find each other.
3. If everything is a priority, nothing is a priority.
4. The less you know about something, the easier it looks.
5. You aren't free unless you are free to be wrong.
6. Me today, you tomorrow.
7. Foreseeable consequences are not unintended.

And, a new one:

8. Meaning comes from context.

You're welcome.

[GILMORE?]

Who writes the Iron Laws?

(no, this is not a zen koan, or some obscure reference to GoT... i mean, have you aggregated these yourself from other sources, or is this your personal collection a la Murphy's _____)

[R C Dean]

Who writes the Iron Laws?

Me, kinda. A couple are from other sources that I stole ("Me today" I believe is Solzhenitsyn, maybe a couple others).

[GILMORE?]

p.s.

I like them all, but i have concerns about the last one, which could be turned into an inadvertent concession to 'post-structuralists'

I suspect your aim is to suggest that people need to stop quote-mining/cherry-picking statements and use them to justify hysterical over-reaction. but saying that meaning "comes from" (rather than 'is shaped/inseparable from') context is a wide-open door to subjectivist relativism.

"As a person of _______ you see, _________ has incredible significance to me in ways that ____________ can never understand"

[DenverJ]

"As a person of personhood you see, personhood has incredible significance to me in ways that non-persons can never understand"

[R C Dean]

That may just be the price of pith, G.

Even the most determined opponent of post-structuralism would find it hard to argue that the meaning of any given event or statement cannot be determined absent its context.

Event: Person X kills person Y. That could be the most scurrilous crime (person X tortures the infant person Y to death) or the most heroic action (person X defends a busload of orphans from a terrorist attack), depending on context.

Statement: "Niggers are inherently inferior". Either rank racism ("Nobody will ever convince me that "Niggers are inherently inferior" hasn't been true for all of human history.") or simple human decency ("Anyone who says "Niggers are inherently inferior" is a cad and a fool, and should be caned from the public square forthwith").

[GILMORE?]

Even the most determined opponent of post-structuralism would find it hard to argue that the meaning of any given event or statement cannot be determined absent its context.

Yes, but there's a difference between saying it "matters" (i.e. must be considered), and saying "its the root from which 'meaning' springs" (.

I agree with the idea you're trying to express, i'm just very familiar with how overly-broad-language can turn on the creator.

If you're talking about the meaning of 'speech', and how some people CHOOSE to 'take offense' whenever possible.... instead of 'context', maybe "Intent" is better.

Because choosing to take offense when its obvious no offense is intended is bullshit.

Its just a narrower idea.

[GILMORE?]

sorry -

"there's a difference between saying it "matters" (i.e. must be considered), and saying "its the root from which 'meaning' springs".....

....because the former allows for strong-or-weak relationships, whereas the latter gives "Context" (or the subjectivity of the listener/reader) incredible power to define what "meaning" is ... allowing for multiple meanings... allowing people to basically inject whatever meaning/intent they want.

[DenverJ]

and how come I can't underline shit no mo'?

[Notorious UGCC]

Just so long as one of the counties is Brisco County, Jr.

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