Census

Ethnic Attrition: Third Generation Americans Ignore Census' Ethnic Pigeonholes

Trump voters who fear a white minority U.S. should just relax.

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EthnicBabies
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The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the whites will no longer be the majority of the U.S. population by 2043. The Census demographers argue that blacks, Asians, and Hispanics will outnumber Americans who identify as white. The Census bureau defines white as "a person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa." Given current trends, the children of today's non-Hispanic whites will be outnumbered by the children of today's black, Hispanic, and Asian U.S. residents.

A recent poll by a couple of University of Massachusetts-Amherst political scientists found that Trump voters seem to be particularly worried about the coming majority-minority nation. They asked Massachusetts voters: "According to the U.S. Census Department, by 2043 African Americans, Latinos, and people of Asian descent will make up a majority of the population. In general, do you think that this is a good thing or bad thing for the nation?" Among other things, the two reported that "individuals who think the increase in the minority population is a bad thing are 20 percentage points more likely to support Trump than those who responded 'good thing' or 'neither.'"

Trump voters and others worried about the advent of a majority-minority America can chill out, given the analysis of ethnic trends reported in a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper,"The Complexity of Immigrant Generations." In that paper, economists Brian Duncan and Stephen Trejo  estimate the rate of "ethnic attrition" for Hispanics and Asians in the United States who descend from immigrants coming from Mexico, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Cuba, China, India, Japan, Korea, and the Philippines. Ethnic attrition occurs when an individual no longer subjectively identifies with the ethnicity of his or her forebears, i.e., they don't check a Census form box indicating an ethnicity other than white. One big factor explaining ethnic attrition is the frequency inter-ethnic marriages.

In their study, Duncan and Trejo found that third generation ethnic identification drops to 69 percent for people who have just one grandparent from a Hispanic source country and 42 percent for people who have just one grandparent from an Asian country. On the other hand, if a third generationer has three or four grandparents from a Hispanic source country, 95 percent still identify with that ethnic group. For similarly situated Asians, about 90 percent still identify with the Asian ethnic group. Surely the rate of ethnic attrition will continue to grow as the fourth, fifth, sixth and so forth generations are born.

In my article, "The Silly Panic Over a Minority White Nation," I noted that early 20th century nativists were panicked over the influx of immigrants they feared would overwhelm those Americans descended from "Nordic" countries:

Shortly after the turn of the last century, many nativists feared that mass immigration was overwhelming the white "races" that had historically contributed the most to populating the nation. One of the most notable expressions of this racial anxiety was the classic 1922 anti-immigration screed by Saturday Evening Post correspondent Kenneth Roberts, Why Europe Leaves Home: A True Account of the Reasons which Cause Central Europeans to Overrun America. "The American nation was founded and developed by the Nordic race," asserted Roberts. "If a few more million members of the Alpine, Mediterranean and Semitic races are poured among us, the result must inevitably be a hybrid race of people as worthless and futile as the good-for-nothing mongrels of Central America and Southeastern Europe."

I added up the descendants from all of the ethnic groups that were once considered essentially non-white by nativists like Roberts and reported that …

…they and their descendants now total 184 million out of 313 million citizens, constituting nearly 60 percent of the country's current population. But how can that be? After all, the Census Bureau notes, "In the 2010 Census, just over one-third of the U.S. population reported their race and ethnicity as something other than non-Hispanic white alone (i.e. "minority")." The answer to this conundrum is that Italians, Poles, Jews, and the Irish are now considered "white."

It is this fact that renders silly and nearly meaningless the pronouncement that "whites" will be a minority in this country by 2050. By 2050, just as the earlier waves of Irish, Italian, Jewish, and Polish immigrants were assimilated, so too will today's Hispanic immigrants and their descendants be. For all intents and purposes, Hispanics will become as "white" as Irish, Italians, Jews, and Poles.

The same phenomenon is evidently occuring among Americans descended from immigrants from Asian countries as their high ethnic attrition rate shows.

I concluded:

Meanwhile Roberts' worst fear of the "mongrelization" of the races in America is being realized. The rising intermarriage rate between members of the arbitrarily defined and federally recognized ethnic groups demonstrates ever-lessening concern by Americans about this issue. It is my hope and belief that Americans of whatever ancestry living in 2050 will look back and wonder why ever did anyone care about the ethnic makeup of the American population. America is an ideal, not a tribe.

I still hope that will be true.

NEXT: Serial Resignations at Breitbart News After the Michelle Fields Manhandling Incident

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  1. What’s that super predator on the right trying to do to that little cute baby next to him?

    1. He even has little devil horns.

  2. Very true. And not only that, but the Progs who are dreaming of a permanent majority because of the end of the evil white people should stop dreaming.

  3. It is my hope and belief that Americans of whatever ancestry living in 2050 will look back and wonder why ever did anyone care about the ethnic makeup of the American population.

    Given that the institutionalized system of racial preferences (aka affirmative action) is the law of the land, it’s not hard to figure out why some people care.

    1. And will still care in 2050.

      We laugh at Warren and Dolezal today – 1/128th Cherokee huh? Sure.

      In 2050 there’ll be a whole industry built around bolstering these claims so people can grab the most advantageous slots.

      1. But at some point pretty much everyone will have some claim and the whole thing becomes kind of impossible. Or maybe I underestimate the possible absurdity of government.

        1. Or maybe I underestimate the possible absurdity of government.

          I’m leaning in this direction.

        2. Hehehehe.

          Hehe

          HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

          *sob*.

  4. I give different responses each time I fill out the forms. If anybody calls me on it, I’ll just tell them that race is a social construct.

    1. The,

      You and many other Americans will instinctively rebel here and there. But please note this: The article notes that Caucasians from various parts of Europe who were despised, became accepted as Caucasians in time. He uses white instead of Caucasian, of course. He shows a weak grasp of logic when he then says that non Caucasians will be accepted as Caucasians in time.

      The more Caucasian looking members of Hispanic majority or Black majority nations south of us tend to predominate among their elites, and blatant racism compared to 2016 America is commonplace. I ask you as someone who appears to think critically of the whole race focus: This is what we should aspire to?

      1. Caucasian is a race. “White” is a social political construct

    2. I do that too (when it doesn’t have anything to do with employment). I had some good ones on the extended census questionnaire that I got. No one questioned me further.

      I think that if everyone routinely lied about their race, it would help in making race a less relevant thing in society. Enough of that combined with lots of interracial breeding and we’re on our way to the post-racial society. Maybe.

    3. Member of the human race, not always proud of it.

      Seems like we all originated in Africa 200,000 years ago or so, and some of us left earlier than others. Even the Native Americans came from Africa, by way of Siberia. Come to think of it, “Native American” fits everyone born in America.

    4. The second time I joined the Navy I was Hispanic.

      Not out of choice – the recruiter needed to fill a racial quota.

      Once they allowed electronic access to service records I changed ethnicity every year or so for a while.

    5. I went with excruciatingly accurate “non-indigenous native American” during the last census.

  5. I will accept the ethnic minorities with open arms. Very… open arms.

    I believe Playa Manhattan suggested we evacuate Venezuela of their women now, just in case. I feel it’s my Christian duty to accept these evacuees… and comfort them.

    1. Dibs on the kids!

      1. Take your unmarked white panel van down the road, prevert.

        1. Seriously. At least repaint it, its an eyesore and that engine startup sounds like a smoker after being forced to run a marathon. I know the Millennium Falcon was a ‘cool rustbucket’ – but those only exist in movies.

          http://polanimal.jovialmonk.co…..&start=150

          1. nah – that one has windows. A proper rape van can’t have windows.

            Here’s his van, along with the song his horn plays.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n8qQn0FI3A

        2. Free Candy is a mark

    2. But no mingers! Back to Slovenia!

    3. Let’s import more socialists. Yeah, that’ll help us.

      1. Your collectivist fantasies are not our problem.

        1. The socialist trash that inhabits the rest of this planet is very much your problem, whenever you come back to earth.

          1. They are. What this has to do with immigration I have no idea.

            1. If you had a brain you would be dead.

  6. “It is my hope and belief that Americans of whatever ancestry living in 2050 will look back and wonder why ever did anyone care about the ethnic makeup of the American population.”

    Good luck with that. Today’s college aged SJWs seem absolutely obsessed with race and identity.

    1. Don’t forget the endless numbers of bureaucrats whose livelihoods depend on race segregation.

  7. That’s some fine old-fashioned racism. But, does this work

    I added up the descendants from all of the ethnic groups that were once considered essentially non-white by nativists like Roberts and reported that …

    …they and their descendants now total 184 million out of 313 million citizens, constituting nearly 60 percent of the country’s current population. But how can that be? After all, the Census Bureau notes, “In the 2010 Census, just over one-third of the U.S. population reported their race and ethnicity as something other than non-Hispanic white alone (i.e. “minority”).” The answer to this conundrum is that Italians, Poles, Jews, and the Irish are now considered “white.”

    Wouldn’t Roberts & Co look at that and say this proves their point? The “Alpine, Mediterranean and Semitic races” came over and took over?
    Oh, and as someone born in SE Europe, I must say I find the sentence

    hybrid race of people as worthless and futile as the good-for-nothing mongrels of Central America and Southeastern Europe.

    to be utterly hilarious.

    1. Unless Roberts & Co were arguing that these people wouldn’t assimilate, otherwise yes it does prove their point.

  8. “…they and their descendants now total 184 million out of 313 million citizens, constituting nearly 60 percent of the country’s current population.”

    And look at the country now!

  9. Damn white privilege?

    1. It is my hope and belief that Americans of whatever ancestry living in 2050 will look back and wonder why ever did anyone care about the ethnic makeup of the American population

      You’re denying people’s racial experiences! Check your privilege!

  10. …the children of today’s non-Hispanic whites will be outnumbered by the children of today’s black, Hispanic, and Asian U.S. residents.

    The Chinaman is not the issue here… unless you’re worried about the grading curve your non-Asian kids will have to overcome.

  11. “… the classic 1922 anti-immigration screed by Saturday Evening Post correspondent Kenneth Roberts…”

    Omitted completely by Ron Bailey (typical for most Reason articles on the complex topic of immigration) is the 1924 Immigration Act:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I…..ct_of_1924

    This act essentially limited immigration to 300,000 people per year, almost all of whom were white. Perhaps this is what prompted many people to list “white” on their census forms?

    1. Why would it?

      Its not like they were going to be shipped home for marking a different box. The census is *anonymous*.

  12. original peoples

    News flash: the “original peoples” have been gone for 20,000+ years.

    1. Pretty much.

      Go with the white devil flow bro!

    2. THEY’S ALL MASEGENATED!?

    3. But you can see their artifacts at the Fist of the First Men.

  13. Do Jews from Europe count as whites?

    1. All ethnic Jews are white*

      *arguably not the Lemba

    2. Ashkenazi Jews are part Italian and part Middle Eastern.

      1. Both of which are Caucasian, or “white”.

      2. I look at ethnicity as a continuum, not black, white, yellow, red, etc. The Uyghurs who have settled in western China are about 40% european and 60% chinese. Just as you would expect based on there location.

      3. Italian? Any Ashkenazis in Italy moved there from Russia, Ukraine, Poland or the Baltic States.

  14. Is it me or are we taking this ethnicity thing a bit too far or seriously?

    1. Yes we are.

      I find it interesting to know about my ancestors and where they were from and everything. But it’s ridiculous to base much of your identity on that. We are not our ancestors. If people would stop thinking that way so much, half of the violent conflict in the world would go away. Or people would have to find different reasons to kill each other.

  15. I enjoy the day when the cries of “Racist” are met with a list of all the non-white ancestors the person has- “Hey man, my grandpa is Mexican and my cousins are Asian!”

    Because its going to be fun watching the SJWs have to deal with the fact that race, like gender, is socially constructed, and Rachel D was just the beginning.

    1. “I enjoy the day when the cries of “Racist” are met with a list of all the non-white ancestors the person has- ‘Hey man, my grandpa is Mexican and my cousins are Asian!'”

      That’ll be washed away like “I have black friends” is now. Common sense is no match for a political hammer.

      1. That’s the one I love to use. My grandfather is half Basque half Mexican, and his parents and their siblings were immigrant silver miners in Arizona, near Tuscon. And the beauty is, between that and my Lithuanian grandfather on the other side, I’m more diverse in a single person than most of the SJWs are in their little clubs.

  16. Trump supporters are more likely than non-Trumpies to not like the nation going unwhite? KNOCK ME OVER WITH A FEATHER. Seriously, about 3/4 of studies should just call me up first, I can give them the answer.

    1. They can call me up instead. I will give them the answers and only charge 10 percent of their grant money.

  17. As a “white” American, I’m not worried about being a racial minority. I am, however, a bit worried about the ubiquitous left-wing teachings that it is impossible to discriminate against a white person, that only white people can be racist, that white people have a debt to pay to the non-white, etc.

    Pair *that* with us becoming a minority of the population and I get nervous. You can be a vilified majority or an accepted minority, but when you’re a vilified minority that spells trouble.

    1. a bit worried about the ubiquitous left-wing teachings that it is impossible to discriminate against a white person, that only white people can be racist, that white people have a debt to pay to the non-white, etc.

      Yes, this is quite bad.

      You can be a vilified majority or an accepted minority, but when you’re a vilified minority that spells trouble.
      Interesting because whites being a vilified minority is exactly what white racists have been worrying about for the last few centuries…

      1. That white racists worry about something is not de facto proof that it isn’t worth worrying about. 🙂

  18. “Trump voters are racist” – check

    Seriously guys, this is getting ridiculous.

    1. I take it you skipped the last three paragraphs that have nothing to do with Trump?

    2. Why? Trump voters are generally racist.

      1. You opinion matters to us why?

    3. The sample was 100% Massholes from the most racistr state in the nation. The more nuanced, and correct, take on Trumpophobia is that he and his supporters favor a national identity, exclusive of race or ethnicity. That’s what fills their pants with shit.

      1. As it should. ‘National identity’ is an anti-individuality concept.

        1. So is “generally racist”.

          1. That’s not a concept. Fail.

  19. I just realized this was written in 2002. I wonder what the gun crime rate is now. Any government that tells you that you have no right to self defense is not looking after your best interest. Self defense is the most basic right anyone has. No government or police can protect you. I can’t believe you all allow this to continue. I keep a gun at home for self defense and have a license to carry it concealed any where I go. And I do. If I am attacked then at least I have a chance to stay alive. By the time the police arrive they can either arrange for my body to be picked up or take a statement from me. I choose the later. Britons let a right be taken from them and now it will be much harder to get it back. But you should try.
    ???? ????? ??????
    ???? ????? ??????

    1. You could not be more wrong.

  20. I just realized this was written in 2002. I wonder what the gun crime rate is now. Any government that tells you that you have no right to self defense is not looking after your best interest. Self defense is the most basic right anyone has. No government or police can protect you. I can’t believe you all allow this to continue. I keep a gun at home for self defense and have a license to carry it concealed any where I go. And I do. If I am attacked then at least I have a chance to stay alive. By the time the police arrive they can either arrange for my body to be picked up or take a statement from me. I choose the later. Britons let a right be taken from them and now it will be much harder to get it back. But you should try.
    ???? ????? ??????
    ???? ????? ??????

    1. More true words have never been spoken.

  21. I just realized this was written in 2002. I wonder what the gun crime rate is now. Any government that tells you that you have no right to self defense is not looking after your best interest. Self defense is the most basic right anyone has. No government or police can protect you. I can’t believe you all allow this to continue. I keep a gun at home for self defense and have a license to carry it concealed any where I go. And I do. If I am attacked then at least I have a chance to stay alive. By the time the police arrive they can either arrange for my body to be picked up or take a statement from me. I choose the later. Britons let a right be taken from them and now it will be much harder to get it back. But you should try.
    ???? ????? ??????
    ???? ????? ??????

    1. Not sure about this.

    2. OK, you win the golden squirrel. Say a few words at the podium as you take your trophy, but say them but once.

  22. I just realized this was written in 2002. I wonder what the gun crime rate is now. Any government that tells you that you have no right to self defense is not looking after your best interest. Self defense is the most basic right anyone has. No government or police can protect you. I can’t believe you all allow this to continue. I keep a gun at home for self defense and have a license to carry it concealed any where I go. And I do. If I am attacked then at least I have a chance to stay alive. By the time the police arrive they can either arrange for my body to be picked up or take a statement from me. I choose the later. Britons let a right be taken from them and now it will be much harder to get it back. But you should try.
    ???? ????? ??????
    ???? ????? ??????

    1. Not sure about that.

  23. I just realized this was written in 2002. I wonder what the gun crime rate is now. Any government that tells you that you have no right to self defense is not looking after your best interest. Self defense is the most basic right anyone has. No government or police can protect you. I can’t believe you all allow this to continue. I keep a gun at home for self defense and have a license to carry it concealed any where I go. And I do. If I am attacked then at least I have a chance to stay alive. By the time the police arrive they can either arrange for my body to be picked up or take a statement from me. I choose the later. Britons let a right be taken from them and now it will be much harder to get it back. But you should try.
    ???? ????? ??????
    ???? ????? ??????

    1. Ok. This is interesting.

    2. Speaking of…

      File in the “if it saves one life it’s worth it” column.

      The hatchet-wielding man fatally shot by a customer at a South King County 7-Eleven store on Sunday morning has been identified as Steven Blacktongue, 43, a felon who had served time for assault and a drug offense.

      Blacktongue, wearing a mask, walked into the convenience store near South 110th Street and Eighth Avenue South about 5:45 a.m. and swung a hatchet at a customer, according to the King County Sheriff’s Office. Blacktongue then went behind the counter and attacked the 58-year-old clerk, never saying anything, the sheriff’s office said.

      […]

      The 60-year-old customer, who buys coffee from the store almost every morning and sits and chats with the clerks, has a permit to carry a concealed handgun, West said.

      The customer, who has not been identified, has declined to speak with the news media, West said Monday.

      http://www.seattletimes.com/se…..r-assault/

  24. I just realized this was written in 2002. I wonder what the gun crime rate is now. Any government that tells you that you have no right to self defense is not looking after your best interest. Self defense is the most basic right anyone has. No government or police can protect you. I can’t believe you all allow this to continue. I keep a gun at home for self defense and have a license to carry it concealed any where I go. And I do. If I am attacked then at least I have a chance to stay alive. By the time the police arrive they can either arrange for my body to be picked up or take a statement from me. I choose the later. Britons let a right be taken from them and now it will be much harder to get it back. But you should try.
    ???? ????? ??????
    ???? ????? ??????

    1. I think you are now missing the more pressing and important point.

  25. I just realized this was written in 2002. I wonder what the gun crime rate is now. Any government that tells you that you have no right to self defense is not looking after your best interest. Self defense is the most basic right anyone has. No government or police can protect you. I can’t believe you all allow this to continue. I keep a gun at home for self defense and have a license to carry it concealed any where I go. And I do. If I am attacked then at least I have a chance to stay alive. By the time the police arrive they can either arrange for my body to be picked up or take a statement from me. I choose the later. Britons let a right be taken from them and now it will be much harder to get it back. But you should try.
    ???? ????? ??????
    ???? ????? ??????

    1. You Know Who Else posted Arabic writing on the internet?

      1. Don’t you start.

      2. I’ll bet his name was Mohamed.

  26. Trump voters who fear a white minority U.S. should just relax.

    That’s the spirit! If you would vote for Trump, you must be a White Racist! EVIL! EVIL! EVIL!

    The magic of Trump’s candidacy is that people have stopped bending over any time someone accuses them of being a racist.

    You need a new tactic, Ron.

    You could show us how minority voters don’t make a reliable democratic voting bloc. Or how 2+2=5. Let me know when you’ve got that worked out.

    1. “The magic of Trump’s candidacy is that people have stopped bending over any time someone accuses them of being a racist.”

      Is this what you tell yourself? Is your bubble armour-plated?

      “You could show us how minority voters don’t make a reliable democratic voting bloc. Or how 2+2=5. Let me know when you’ve got that worked out.”

      What?

    2. “Trump voters who fear a white minority” probably are a bit racist.

    3. Aw, aren’t you Trumpalos precious.

    4. You could show us how minority voters don’t make a reliable democratic voting bloc

      If “reliable voting bloc today” meant “reliable voting bloc forever”, Republicans would still be winning the black vote.

  27. I soiled the gene pool. Sorry.

  28. You Know We ought to have a poll on who libertarians think is the Lesser Evil: Trump, Hillary or Suicide?

    1. Mark me down for Hillary, followed by fleeing to Panama.

      1. Won’t do you any good. Didn’t do Noriega any good and he was *head of state*.

      2. I might think Hillary was the lesser evil too. If she was running for Canadian office…

    2. Whose suicide?

    3. You’d first have to find at least one true libertarian.

      1. So Somalia?

  29. interesting information for Libertarians. the majority of Libertarians i know (including me) are all ethnic (non-white). the future looks positive!

    1. Hello!

    2. Don’t matter if you’re ethnic, is you a she? Libertarians only gots three wimmenfolks and two of they’s gay and t’other’s a dude so what we really need’s a wimmenfolks.

  30. So, uh, is this the…meeting…for those of us who are…uh…like-minded when it comes to certain issues…like, uh…you know…racial issues…

    1. Buys copy of Daily Racing Form as I walk to a Crusty-chaired meeting.

  31. The Census bureau defines white as “a person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa.”

    IOW, the Census bureau considers white to be a meaningless term.

  32. In multiracial societies, you don’t vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion.

  33. Yep, that’s why 2012 had such a low level of black, Hispanic, and Asian support for Obama compared to, say, 1996

    You fucking asshole

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